Chat - 11/27/12 - Technical Watch Forum

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TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 11/27/12

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fib_1618

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Registered:1101777014
Posts: 4,807

Posted 1354112479	Reply with quote #1

2012-11-27 16:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day 2012-11-27 16:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone? 2012-11-27 16:00:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, thx 2012-11-27 16:00:29 [Message] steveftw -> Chat: great - and you? 2012-11-27 16:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine as well 2012-11-27 16:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still recovering from Thanksgiving :) 2012-11-27 16:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2012-11-27 16:02:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Are there internal reasons stopping us fronm being in an X wave up now? 2012-11-27 16:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope 2012-11-27 16:04:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx 2012-11-27 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me one more minute and we'll get started 2012-11-27 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ok 2012-11-27 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we last met 2012-11-27 16:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were looking for a choppy to up week last week 2012-11-27 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a down Black Friday 2012-11-27 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we didn't get 2012-11-27 16:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does help us along in our expectation of a mid December bottom 2012-11-27 16:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we also know 2012-11-27 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the push on Friday was not only on low volume 2012-11-27 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is always a caution sign 2012-11-27 16:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we never got any texture to the breadth MCO's that would indicate a tradable bottom 2012-11-27 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call it more of a ying and yang effect 2012-11-27 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the market sold off hard after the election 2012-11-27 16:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then reflexed higher back to where we started prior to that 2012-11-27 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we can resume the effort in creating a bottom that will likely diverge with the 11/16 lows 2012-11-27 16:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started 2012-11-27 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to minimally "overbought" territory last Friday 2012-11-27 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to give back some of those gains of last week 2012-11-27 16:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains well above its zero line at this time 2012-11-27 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of +31 2012-11-27 16:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components 2012-11-27 16:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that last Friday's final push to "overbought" levels provided a crossover buy signal 2012-11-27 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the market pulling back only slightly so far 2012-11-27 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to be in the process of creating an important bottom in which we will rally OUT OF instead of moving DOWN INTO this same bottom 2012-11-27 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM 2012-11-27 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have now completed a minimal snapback up to the -250 level 2012-11-27 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after finding support at just above the -500 level 2012-11-27 16:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the scope and breadth of last weeks reflex rally 2012-11-27 16:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pause could now be indicated here as we find natural resistance at the next 250 multiple 2012-11-27 16:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that this MCO will continue to snapback to its zero line 2012-11-27 16:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this, of course, would halt the upside progression of the MCSUM at around this same -250 level 2012-11-27 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the positive side 2012-11-27 16:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM did break above its declining tops line today 2012-11-27 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with bearish sentiment about as thick as I've seen it in a while 2012-11-27 16:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be in store for another upside surprise before we actually do the work necessary to provide a tradable low in prices 2012-11-27 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite data 2012-11-27 16:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the NYSE composite MCO and its components generated a buy signal on Friday 2012-11-27 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both continue to remain in a positive configuration for the time being 2012-11-27 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM 2012-11-27 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are now back up to the zero line 2012-11-27 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of -1 2012-11-27 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete? 2012-11-27 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will the bulls take control of the action where both sides are now evened up? 2012-11-27 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here 2012-11-27 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that this MCSUM can move back up to around the +200 level and still not violate its declining tops line 2012-11-27 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can not rule out some continuation of this current flow of money moving into the market 2012-11-27 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still remain rather negative overall 2012-11-27 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up of the NYA price pattern 2012-11-27 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about last week 2012-11-27 16:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very likely here that an important bottom is now behind us given the high degree of negative sentiment 2012-11-27 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the highly "oversold" reading on the MCO 2012-11-27 16:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also included a beautiful hammer stick 2012-11-27 16:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break-a-way gap 2012-11-27 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a extension gap to top it off 2012-11-27 16:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: internally though 2012-11-27 16:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still as yet have very little structure where prices can build on what looks to be an "initiation" phase 2012-11-27 16:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation for now 2012-11-27 16:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as suggested over the weekend 2012-11-27 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for a choppy trading range to develop that would bottom in or around mid December 2012-11-27 16:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would frustrate both bull and bear 2012-11-27 16:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we had last December 2012-11-27 16:21:49 [Message] hkk -> Chat: are we expecting the mid dec low to be a lower low or can it be a higher low? 2012-11-27 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point 2012-11-27 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since it's a trading range 2012-11-27 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: e.g. - the MCO above its zero line, the MCSUM below its zero line 2012-11-27 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation now is for a low in which we move OUT OF (higher price than the original low) and not one in which we move down INTO (lower prices) 2012-11-27 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's become fascinating here 2012-11-27 16:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if you check sentiment right now 2012-11-27 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's as bearish as I've seen in a while 2012-11-27 16:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far 2012-11-27 16:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has happened to justify it...technically 2012-11-27 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the majority is thinking lower prices 2012-11-27 16:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will the market accommodate the many? 2012-11-27 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe...eventually 2012-11-27 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but probably not right away 2012-11-27 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if does so...let's say tomorrow 2012-11-27 16:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we lose, for the sake of argument, 1% 2012-11-27 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would happen if we gain it all back on Thursday? 2012-11-27 16:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem now is this 2012-11-27 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Friday's break above the MCO resistance tops we pointed to last week 2012-11-27 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside has been pretty much been cratered out 2012-11-27 16:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the short term trend of money, as measured by the MCO is positive 2012-11-27 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the intermediate term trend of money, as measured by the MCSUM, is negative 2012-11-27 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we chop 2012-11-27 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no trend 2012-11-27 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neither higher or lower 2012-11-27 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we are then in an indecision pattern 2012-11-27 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we KNOW that sentiment is going to go from one extreme to the other at the drop of a hat 2012-11-27 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once both sides have been chewed up and spit out 2012-11-27 16:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then a trend can be created 2012-11-27 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't expect too much to the downside here 2012-11-27 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: expect a lot of frustration 2012-11-27 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and anger to go along with it 2012-11-27 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind 2012-11-27 16:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know from history 2012-11-27 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO tends to stay either above or below its zero line for periods of not more than 4-6 weeks at a time 2012-11-27 16:28:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: without lower prices, how do you get a divergent bottom? 2012-11-27 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that we don't tend to have more than one fishhook and one ledge in any one downward sequence 2012-11-27 16:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now 2012-11-27 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's have bottomed 2012-11-27 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you get a divergent bottom when prices are slammed lower 2012-11-27 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with less and less momentum behind it 2012-11-27 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen this many times before 2012-11-27 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's part and parcel of a trading range 2012-11-27 16:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where each test of the lower end of the range is divergent from the one before it 2012-11-27 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key to divergence is that it provides the insight where one can measure the amplitude of how many buyers or sellers are supporting a price move in one direction or the other 2012-11-27 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with so many folks so darn sure that we're going to cave in here with the Fiscal Cliff...Europe...the Middle East...etc etc 2012-11-27 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the players who want to sell are reduced each time this "fear" is given 2012-11-27 16:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well.. 2012-11-27 16:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look back at the 2010 and 2011 bottoms 2012-11-27 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of which had us giving no chance of a recovery 2012-11-27 16:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but each move lower provided less and less sellers 2012-11-27 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to eventually you have no one really selling 2012-11-27 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the buyers step in and hold the market up until enough traders give up on their bias 2012-11-27 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's forget all that for a moment 2012-11-27 16:33:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just saying, I'm usually calling something divergent when prices are lower-with higher indicators... 2012-11-27 16:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a technical basis 2012-11-27 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have the MCO and MCSUM not agreeing 2012-11-27 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or when you have one time period trend not agreeing with the other 2012-11-27 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are only likely to churn until a decision is made where both time periods are in agreement 2012-11-27 16:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where...a trend can be created 2012-11-27 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a good visual 2012-11-27 16:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me give you an example 2012-11-27 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't find one on the yearly...let me switch to the 3 year 2012-11-27 16:36:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: like the 2010 and 2011 bottoms, both divergent price to indicator-why am I looking for it to be different this time? 2012-11-27 16:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...spring of 2011 2012-11-27 16:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see the trading range top? 2012-11-27 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the NYA? 2012-11-27 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we had a low in February 2012-11-27 16:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a test of this low in July? 2012-11-27 16:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...you had your divergence there 2012-11-27 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in that case 2012-11-27 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it led to a SOB and a crash 2012-11-27 16:38:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes 2012-11-27 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here is that there is so much liquidity in the system here 2012-11-27 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it becomes difficult to see textbook divergences 2012-11-27 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now... 2012-11-27 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might still have a classic one 2012-11-27 16:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds of this happening now are much lower than they were prior to Friday's pop 2012-11-27 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on the flip side 2012-11-27 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do move to new price lows 2012-11-27 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and take out the tail of the hammer stick 2012-11-27 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will do so only with a large increase of momentum for this to happen 2012-11-27 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the focus here is with the tools we use here 2012-11-27 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right now 2012-11-27 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they say to expect chop 2012-11-27 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a new low 2012-11-27 16:40:18 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so when the MCO broke out on Friday, all downside price objectives were canceled? 2012-11-27 16:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes (with some already meeting those same targets) 2012-11-27 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember 2012-11-27 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we pointed to the previous highs in the MCO as being important in keeping the pressure on the bulls 2012-11-27 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we broke above THREE tops 2012-11-27 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a significant event 2012-11-27 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only wasn't it expected 2012-11-27 16:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the downside pressure of the previous week 2012-11-27 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we had already had a technical breakdown 2 weeks before 2012-11-27 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we took out the rising bottoms structures on the MCO's 2012-11-27 16:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we then moved to highly "oversold" 2012-11-27 16:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation of such an event is NOT to go screaming north to "overbought" levels 2012-11-27 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation is for just a snapback to the zero line 2012-11-27 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe above it slightly 2012-11-27 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not to take out these same tops 2012-11-27 16:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we did 2012-11-27 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was like moving up to a brick wall 2012-11-27 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finding enough energy to break through it 2012-11-27 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this then needs to be respected for what it may suggest 2012-11-27 16:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the sellers have once again lost control 2012-11-27 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even in the face of some very bearish fundamentals 2012-11-27 16:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have seen time and time again over the last couple of years 2012-11-27 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they don't keep the pressure on 2012-11-27 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just too much capital out there to move back in from shore 2012-11-27 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now... 2012-11-27 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: granted 2012-11-27 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this was short covering 2012-11-27 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what the last two weeks of action provided 2012-11-27 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was sort of like a tsunami effect 2012-11-27 16:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a large amount of capital moved out 2012-11-27 16:45:31 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so when all is said and done, we should now be at least expecting to test of the previous price highs? 2012-11-27 16:45:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the lack of texture bothers me here, as does the non break, so far of the zero line and 250 on the relative summations-basically only a simple snapback, so far. we are also now at an almost perfect back test of the breakdown - I hear what you are saying, and appreciate your knowledge-but this looks like an iffy spot 2012-11-27 16:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it moved back in just as quickly as it left 2012-11-27 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually...we should test the price highs 2012-11-27 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that has NEVER been in doubt 2012-11-27 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's because of what we see with the interest rate sensitive A/D lines 2012-11-27 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which PROMISE us higher equity prices some time down the line 2012-11-27 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...I don't use the word "promise" very lightly here 2012-11-27 16:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I agree Lew 2012-11-27 16:47:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed, fully-just a question of "from where" 2012-11-27 16:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a great question 2012-11-27 16:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's consider 2012-11-27 16:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that on Fibonacci basis 2012-11-27 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have retraced anywhere from .382 to .618 of the rally from last June 2012-11-27 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen the MCSUM's move lower for a longer period of time that is usual and customary 2012-11-27 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our expectation of a trading range 2012-11-27 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we have the MCO above the zero line and the MCSUM below its zero line 2012-11-27 16:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes the best sense as we move to back and fill the hole created by last weeks reflex rally 2012-11-27 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tell me this 2012-11-27 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who isn't bearish here...show of hands?? 2012-11-27 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's stop for one moment 2012-11-27 16:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I would like everyone to scan the TT board for a moment 2012-11-27 16:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tell me what you see as far as the subject lines are concerned 2012-11-27 16:50:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll go either way, there are individual stocks I love-leaning bullish-but VERY cautious right here 2012-11-27 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just look at the topics 2012-11-27 16:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while you do that 2012-11-27 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consider this 2012-11-27 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving from highly "oversold" to minimally "overbought" in a matter of 3 1/2 trading days 2012-11-27 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO (so far that we've looked) has only retraced a small fraction of this move 2012-11-27 16:51:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there was to be another flush 2012-11-27 16:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would had been at the zero line today 2012-11-27 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're holding here 2012-11-27 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of... 2012-11-27 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: France being downgraded on debt last week 2012-11-27 16:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we had...who was it? Hungary on Friday? 2012-11-27 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Greece passed their bail out 2012-11-27 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but no one knows how they're going to do it 2012-11-27 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are being told that the whole of Europe is going into a double dip recession 2012-11-27 16:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still the FTSE A/D line closed just below its all time highs on Friday! 2012-11-27 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the next couple of weeks going to be tough 2012-11-27 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes 2012-11-27 16:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no debate 2012-11-27 16:54:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: for me, right here, as well-on the SPX we just retraced almost exactly 50% of the last drop 2012-11-27 16:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK... 2012-11-27 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have been told by everyone and their grandmother...it's now time to resume lower 2012-11-27 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically though 2012-11-27 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not quite doable 2012-11-27 16:55:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: maybe not, but we certainly need a lot better foundation here 2012-11-27 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea 2012-11-27 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will 2012-11-27 16:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this sentiment continues to get even more bearish 2012-11-27 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the upside, once this lack of clarity passes, is going to be quite impressive 2012-11-27 16:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could change tomorrow 2012-11-27 16:56:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: your anticipation of chop would provide fine texture-I can see it 2012-11-27 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can only go by what we see 2012-11-27 16:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes 2012-11-27 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would frustrate everyone 2012-11-27 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the option specs would again expire worthless in December 2012-11-27 16:56:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I suppose that would be exactly what we want, so, OK, LOL 2012-11-27 16:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we have only looked at the NYSE ...let's see how the other charts look :) 2012-11-27 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom line here is that 2012-11-27 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the MCO moves back below its zero line 2012-11-27 16:57:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx for the great explanation-I'm still learning from you! 2012-11-27 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation of being able to move to lower price lows is less than 50% 2012-11-27 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is a great teacher 2012-11-27 16:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am but a student 2012-11-27 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we all are 2012-11-27 16:58:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you are cheaper 2012-11-27 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very important though in not to get caught up in trades that seem easy 2012-11-27 16:58:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: market lessons can be costly 2012-11-27 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 40 years of them for me 2012-11-27 16:58:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 37 here, as well 2012-11-27 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you are bearish here 2012-11-27 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the market asks is to take a step back 2012-11-27 16:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and re-examine 2012-11-27 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't fall into a trap 2012-11-27 16:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: believe me 2012-11-27 16:59:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: to be honest, I'm focusing on stalking individual bullish charts for long plays here-but kind of trading less and vulturing more 2012-11-27 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the indicators said otherwise, I would share it 2012-11-27 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you see what I see...so far 2012-11-27 16:59:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely 2012-11-27 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the way this market has been 2012-11-27 17:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it hasn't been a stock market 2012-11-27 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been a market of stocks 2012-11-27 17:00:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: or I'd stalk shorts.... 2012-11-27 17:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has been for the better part of the year 2012-11-27 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prediction 2012-11-27 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready? 2012-11-27 17:00:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep 2012-11-27 17:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we hear Bob Prechter being interviewed...that will be our bottom 2012-11-27 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no disrespect to Bob 2012-11-27 17:01:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, to be fair, I still like the mid December time frame here 2012-11-27 17:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the press always goes to him when all looks lost 2012-11-27 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the key 2012-11-27 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last Friday's break above resistance increased the odds of a mid December low 2012-11-27 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on to the other charts and see if they're in agreement or not 2012-11-27 17:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...now here's another good example 2012-11-27 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO finally moved lower today the first time since the 11/16 lows 2012-11-27 17:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-11-27 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ was up the majority of the day today 2012-11-27 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we usually see when a uptrend is in the beginning stages of being created 2012-11-27 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see the secondaries firm first before the those issues traded on the NYSE 2012-11-27 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...looking at the price pattern 2012-11-27 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember what our upside objective for the bounce was last Monday? 2012-11-27 17:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...the early November consolidation 2012-11-27 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we reached that today 2012-11-27 17:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this pattern sequence is now complete 2012-11-27 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking still at the price chart 2012-11-27 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had a small reversal bar today 2012-11-27 17:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small sign of exhaustion 2012-11-27 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between reaching a target 2012-11-27 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and seeing the index moving to higher highs and closing near the lows 2012-11-27 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with a MCO reading at +34 2012-11-27 17:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect some additional movement to or towards the zero line near term 2012-11-27 17:06:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bit of gap resistance here as well, no? 2012-11-27 17:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like were there...let me check the combo chart 2012-11-27 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're filling it now 2012-11-27 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we broke above the accelerated declining tops line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM on Monday 2012-11-27 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next target there is the -250 level 2012-11-27 17:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have natural resistance 2012-11-27 17:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND 2012-11-27 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the declining tops line that is controlling the pattern crosses 2012-11-27 17:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here 2012-11-27 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% is above its zero line 2012-11-27 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 5% remains below 2012-11-27 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even here...we should see choppy behavior as well 2012-11-27 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't mean we won't move down 30 points 2012-11-27 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until both the MCO and MCSUM get in gear here either above or below their zero lines 2012-11-27 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not going to trend 2012-11-27 17:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we don't trend 2012-11-27 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't make lower lows or higher highs 2012-11-27 17:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...we have a hammer stick on the NASDAQ 2012-11-27 17:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a break-a-way gap to the upside 2012-11-27 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if the bears are right here 2012-11-27 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are going to have break down the market again with such strength that it would break both of these time and tested reversal indicators 2012-11-27 17:11:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: since the 5% never made it, would you consider it, strictly technically, still corrective? 2012-11-27 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes 2012-11-27 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrective 2012-11-27 17:12:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx 2012-11-27 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and corrective means...? 2012-11-27 17:12:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we can not yet trend up 2012-11-27 17:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor down 2012-11-27 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we then...? 2012-11-27 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop 2012-11-27 17:12:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep 2012-11-27 17:13:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good, you know me, I NEED the texture, LOL 2012-11-27 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...so does the market 2012-11-27 17:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again 2012-11-27 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is plenty of work to do for the bulls here 2012-11-27 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the argument 2012-11-27 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is the argument though 2012-11-27 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that 2012-11-27 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not move forward or backward unless the flow of money shows leadership in that direction 2012-11-27 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now 2012-11-27 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far 2012-11-27 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there been enough money that has come in to stabilize prices from moving lower 2012-11-27 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there hasn't been enough for prices to move to new highs as well 2012-11-27 17:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for those who are looking for a "crash" here 2012-11-27 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget it 2012-11-27 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who might be looking for a melt up 2012-11-27 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget it 2012-11-27 17:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are in an indecision mode now 2012-11-27 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the bad news is out 2012-11-27 17:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a matter now of constructing a low to where prices can rally again 2012-11-27 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's again make it very clear here 2012-11-27 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCO's broke their bottoms above bottoms structures earlier this month 2012-11-27 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a "technical breakdown" 2012-11-27 17:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have technical breakdowns 2012-11-27 17:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices have the ability to collapse as those who were betting on a bottom suddenly withdraw their trades 2012-11-27 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the bears 2012-11-27 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this all happened when many of the MCSUM's were moving down and through their zero lines 2012-11-27 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the majority move from one side of the trade to the other 2012-11-27 17:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also discussed 2012-11-27 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lack of liquidity never had anything to do with the November decline 2012-11-27 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you have high liquidity levels as we do right now 2012-11-27 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you're able to continue to keep the beach ball below the water line 2012-11-27 17:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you release it 2012-11-27 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoosh...the ball moves back above the water line with a great amount of energy 2012-11-27 17:20:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I see the difference in context better, thx 2012-11-27 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what happened last week 2012-11-27 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now 2012-11-27 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball is floating on top of the pool 2012-11-27 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to and fro as the wind allows it (the NYSE breadth MCSUM zero line) 2012-11-27 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when the bears again have the strength to push the ball back under the water line again 2012-11-27 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will likely not be as deep as the first time 2012-11-27 17:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's your divergence 2012-11-27 17:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also 2012-11-27 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the downside target for the NASDAQ and NDX were met last week? 2012-11-27 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we discussed this 2012-11-27 17:22:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes 2012-11-27 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as one of the many reasons why we were going to have a reflex rally 2012-11-27 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-11-27 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go back to the NYA price chart again 2012-11-27 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember that our downside target was initially the August consolidation lows 2012-11-27 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we cut right through them as we made our -92 reading on the MCO 2012-11-27 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what happened after that? 2012-11-27 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we rally back above this same support level 2012-11-27 17:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we GAPED back above it 2012-11-27 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...someone let go of the beach ball :) 2012-11-27 17:25:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I noticed how quickly we drove through a lot of the gap resistance-mentioned it in my room, thought it significant 2012-11-27 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know it to be 2012-11-27 17:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of what the media is telling you 2012-11-27 17:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again... 2012-11-27 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday was a significant event for the bulls 2012-11-27 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the longer term trend 2012-11-27 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which remains intact 2012-11-27 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until the bears can come up with top beneath a top 2012-11-27 17:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any talk of a "THE" top are very much a guess (hope) if anything else 2012-11-27 17:27:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, the U/D was very telling...historically, since 2009 anyway 2012-11-27 17:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get through the rest of the breadth charts...I want to see how the volume McClellan's look 2012-11-27 17:27:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it said bottom 2012-11-27 17:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO 2012-11-27 17:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see how it moved to its highest level since the beginning of July? 2012-11-27 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that have a bottom in the NDX breadth MCSUM 2012-11-27 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the current "ledge" resistance we see here 2012-11-27 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is likely to be crushed sooner than later 2012-11-27 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as soon as tomorrow 2012-11-27 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to take anything you hear as being something to promote a reaction 2012-11-27 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at today 2012-11-27 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market was pretty much at unchanged until (I think) Senator Reid came out and said that "they are far apart on a cure for the Fiscal Cliff" 2012-11-27 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and BAM! 2012-11-27 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow lows 70 points 2012-11-27 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rallied a bit 2012-11-27 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then closed at its lows 2012-11-27 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you listen to the NEWS tonight 2012-11-27 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that statement will be used to justify today's close 2012-11-27 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally 2012-11-27 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to improve 2012-11-27 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...we're not quite there to where a rally can take place 2012-11-27 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are there to where any further downside has been taken off the table....for now 2012-11-27 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these announcements are timed 2012-11-27 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make no mistake 2012-11-27 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this sense...the market is rigged 2012-11-27 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's ability to promote a reaction is the very KEY to merchandising stock 2012-11-27 17:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if traders are selling 2012-11-27 17:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's no one to buy 2012-11-27 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's up to the market makers to off set the trade with their own accounts 2012-11-27 17:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they do that 2012-11-27 17:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they can "control" prices 2012-11-27 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "it's not people selling that make prices move lower 2012-11-27 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's prices moving lower that make people sell" 2012-11-27 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or load up on puts 2012-11-27 17:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or calls as the case might be 2012-11-27 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discipline 2012-11-27 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and respecting your indicators 2012-11-27 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the only way you can sidestep these merchandising techniques 2012-11-27 17:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let's move on 2012-11-27 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also tested it summer highs 2012-11-27 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components 2012-11-27 17:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that both have now snapped back to or toward their zero line 2012-11-27 17:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-11-27 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically 2012-11-27 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what should we expect near term with this technical condition? 2012-11-27 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's right...we should bounce 2012-11-27 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't be surprised if we're up tomorrow 2012-11-27 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the end of the week? 2012-11-27 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: won't know until tomorrow :) 2012-11-27 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but short term 2012-11-27 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now likely in a trading range 2012-11-27 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the important thing 2012-11-27 17:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because 2012-11-27 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're in a trading range 2012-11-27 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where your momentum oscillators do their best magic 2012-11-27 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as oscillators have little merit during trending sequences 2012-11-27 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the OEX breadth MCO and its components 2012-11-27 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh my 2012-11-27 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the Dow breadth MCO challenged its 52 week highs last week 2012-11-27 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains below its declining tops line on the Dow breadth MCSUM 2012-11-27 17:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side says "go" 2012-11-27 17:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other says "slow" 2012-11-27 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the two...you chop 2012-11-27 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the only real question... 2012-11-27 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how wide the price range are we to expect? 2012-11-27 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT we don't quite know as yet 2012-11-27 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know is that it's unlikely that we're going to take out the 11/16 price lows anytime soon 2012-11-27 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or until there is enough texture moving lower in the MCO where price CAN actually do this 2012-11-27 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: texture is everything here 2012-11-27 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for both sides 2012-11-27 17:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without it...no one has control 2012-11-27 17:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that 2012-11-27 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we get whipsawed 2012-11-27 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I remember correctly 2012-11-27 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't we have confirmed bull divergence in place with the MID breadth MCO last week? 2012-11-27 17:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...bull divergence in place now 2012-11-27 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't mean we can't chop with the rest of the market 2012-11-27 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what it does suggest is that it's going be difficult for the bears to muster up any downside momentum for a while 2012-11-27 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's important information 2012-11-27 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which you won't hear in the media 2012-11-27 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or CNBC 2012-11-27 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even a message board 2012-11-27 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the market talking 2012-11-27 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same vehicle that wants to part you from your capital 2012-11-27 17:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your enemy 2012-11-27 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right now 2012-11-27 17:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while everyone is looking and thinking one way 2012-11-27 17:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is doing something else 2012-11-27 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could change 2012-11-27 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now...this is what we see 2012-11-27 17:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see it 2012-11-27 17:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see it 2012-11-27 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you technical expertise sees it 2012-11-27 17:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anybody ever come across a bottom when the news was good? 2012-11-27 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: show of hands, please 2012-11-27 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not one 2012-11-27 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :) 2012-11-27 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO finally topped out today 2012-11-27 17:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the SML breadth MCSUM 2012-11-27 17:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a ledge 2012-11-27 17:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a fishhook 2012-11-27 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is a turn in the directional trend! 2012-11-27 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so internally 2012-11-27 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is showing that money is moving into the market 2012-11-27 17:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and doing so for the first time in.... 2012-11-27 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since mid September 2012-11-27 17:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all see this? 2012-11-27 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile 2012-11-27 17:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're being told that the market is about to collapse 2012-11-27 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can this be? 2012-11-27 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money is moving in 2012-11-27 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not out? 2012-11-27 17:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the separation of the MCSUM postings 2012-11-27 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a little bit of money 2012-11-27 17:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a whole lot of money 2012-11-27 17:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money sees something over the horizon that most either can't... 2012-11-27 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or don't want to 2012-11-27 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how you make money in the markets 2012-11-27 17:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the majority is looking the other way 2012-11-27 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we do our homework...right Lew? 2012-11-27 17:50:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes sir! 2012-11-27 17:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO remains well above its zero line 2012-11-27 17:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of +29 2012-11-27 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a zero line snapback wouldn't be out of the question there either 2012-11-27 17:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although 2012-11-27 17:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components here have snapped back to their zero lines now 2012-11-27 17:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe after tomorrow we'll see if that happens or not 2012-11-27 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime 2012-11-27 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market appears to be constructing a new bottom 2012-11-27 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one in which the price lows may have already been seen for this corrective process 2012-11-27 17:52:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: check out the postings on the NDX volume summations-Oh my! 2012-11-27 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will leave the McClellan volume data for your own review... 2012-11-27 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but needless to say...we have both volume and breadth moving in sync with each other on this bounce 2012-11-27 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you are bearish 2012-11-27 17:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just one look at the volume MCO's should give you something to consider 2012-11-27 17:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, yes, the NDX volume MCSUM is leading breadth to the upside 2012-11-27 17:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...Apple looked like it bottomed 2 weeks ago? 2012-11-27 17:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now... 2012-11-27 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's tricky market...to be sure 2012-11-27 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators 2012-11-27 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are "overbought" 2012-11-27 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the CVI's and VTO's are now neutral 2012-11-27 17:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some sort of shake out is imminent 2012-11-27 17:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it might be one of those intraday variety ones 2012-11-27 17:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we open sharply lower and improve the rest of the day 2012-11-27 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words 2012-11-27 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we are now choppy 2012-11-27 17:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both long and short day trades are back to hit and run affairs again 2012-11-27 17:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I'm doing is following some key stocks/ETF's and watching for leadership breaks 2012-11-27 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on Thursday we'll look at the sector data again and see how they look for our weekend homework 2012-11-27 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow 2012-11-27 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.84 2012-11-27 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of selling 2012-11-27 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 back below "oversold" now at 1.12 2012-11-27 17:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will tend to keep prices bouyant 2012-11-27 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .95 2012-11-27 17:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88 2012-11-27 17:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral 2012-11-27 17:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.13 2012-11-27 17:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95 2012-11-27 17:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-11-27 17:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably going to need to get all the Open 10's back below 1.10 for our tradable bottom 2012-11-27 17:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the best blueprint for now is to continue to look for a choppy market place 2012-11-27 17:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both sides wrestle with each other as to whose opinion is the correct one 2012-11-27 17:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the surface 2012-11-27 17:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many are looking at this as a downtrend of some kind 2012-11-27 17:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally 2012-11-27 17:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the case 2012-11-27 18:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as all of the MCSUM's are now rising by benefit of their MCO's 2012-11-27 18:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so those who are short...it's time to be diligent on your stops 2012-11-27 18:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the path of least resistance for money is up 2012-11-27 18:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this point... 2012-11-27 18:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still looking on target for a mid December low 2012-11-27 18:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only question being...from what price level where this low will be created 2012-11-27 18:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should have a good feel for that as soon as next week 2012-11-27 18:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-11-27 18:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow futures down 16 2012-11-27 18:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much follow through to a sloppy looking close, don't you think? 2012-11-27 18:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw 2012-11-27 18:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one comment on Black Friday 2012-11-27 18:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was my expectation that brick and mortar would be poor 2012-11-27 18:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that internet buying would be brisk 2012-11-27 18:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it turned out 2012-11-27 18:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday was the best retail has seen in several years 2012-11-27 18:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however 2012-11-27 18:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sales are nice 2012-11-27 18:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you don't have any mark up, or sell items at cost, is it really as good as the press has us believe? 2012-11-27 18:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something to think about 2012-11-27 18:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that 2012-11-27 18:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off 2012-11-27 18:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days 2012-11-27 18:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday 2012-11-27 18:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night 2012-11-27 18:06:07 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: Thanks __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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