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Posts: 4,888
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-11-26 16:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-11-26 16:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-11-26 16:01:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Good, and you?
2013-11-26 16:01:43 [Message] orange -> Chat: been OK
2013-11-26 16:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine
2013-11-26 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first order of business...I was looking at the calendar for December
2013-11-26 16:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and noticed that Christmas falls on a Wednesday this year
2013-11-26 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was thinking of a chat on Monday...but not sure about a second one that week
2013-11-26 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any thoughts?
2013-11-26 16:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm thinking that the following week we do one on the 30th and then the 2nd
2013-11-26 16:04:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Mondays set up good trading-fine with me
2013-11-26 16:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not sure how to work with previous week
2013-11-26 16:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...if it's OK with everyone
2013-11-26 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess we'll do only one chat that week, on the 23rd, so that we can at least work with the fallout of December OPEX
2013-11-26 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call the rest of the week dark
2013-11-26 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...we have some unusual action
2013-11-26 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair?
2013-11-26 16:07:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2013-11-26 16:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will wait for others to comment who may see this in the transcripts...but it's majority rules
2013-11-26 16:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'll then have December's schedule up sometime this weekend
2013-11-26 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-11-26 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and take a look around
2013-11-26 16:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any news item on why the market sold off in the last 10 minutes?
2013-11-26 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...looks like we have a small point change tonight on the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2013-11-26 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we bounced off the zero line today
2013-11-26 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no decision at this point
2013-11-26 16:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we remain compressed with this basket of stocks
2013-11-26 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the close up 21 day view of the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2013-11-26 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would appear that we're tracing out a ledge pattern right now
2013-11-26 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since these patterns tend to trigger about 3-4 trading days out
2013-11-26 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have some sort of resolution to this current indecision by Friday
2013-11-26 16:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about at the close of chat yesterday
2013-11-26 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a whole slew of economic data coming out on Wednesday that may also trigger some sort of response from the market's participants
2013-11-26 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for whatever the trigger
2013-11-26 16:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something is about to give...and probably in a big way
2013-11-26 16:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...they have now met many price and time targets over the last week
2013-11-26 16:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if they're going to extend the current uptrend
2013-11-26 16:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need to have re-enforcements join the brigade
2013-11-26 16:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2013-11-26 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is another opportunity to take some sort of short term control of the market
2013-11-26 16:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the reason why most of the market is now neutral...we're waiting for one side or the other to make a move
2013-11-26 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't get the technical condition of a small point change in the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-11-26 16:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did get a snapback up to the zero line today
2013-11-26 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, on a short term trending basis, both sides are evenly matched right now
2013-11-26 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where one side can now take control of the action
2013-11-26 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls they are looking for others to join their opinion
2013-11-26 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to extend this current rally into the end of the year
2013-11-26 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to do this we will need to see the NYSE MCO move back above the spike highs of two weeks ago
2013-11-26 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally above the +25 level
2013-11-26 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this were to occur over the next couple of days
2013-11-26 16:20:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the month of December will likely echo what we got in November
2013-11-26 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this strength is enough to extend above the +50 level
2013-11-26 16:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can look for prices to be solid into the mid February period
2013-11-26 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-11-26 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still an upside price target for the NYA to challenge its all time highs at 10,312
2013-11-26 16:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is only 145 points away
2013-11-26 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 1.5% away
2013-11-26 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have our approximate upside target for the SPX at 1825 in play here
2013-11-26 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is 23 points away or 1.3% away
2013-11-26 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point changes usually give us a 1% move overall
2013-11-26 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so our thought that we might go for those highs by Wednesday, and then key off the data we get from retail on Friday, is still on the front burner
2013-11-26 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2013-11-26 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO showed good follow through strength today
2013-11-26 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it has now cleared all of its blip resistance levels
2013-11-26 16:25:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Tech seems strong
2013-11-26 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled today at a +26 reading
2013-11-26 16:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that would make a lot of sense
2013-11-26 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would follow our logic of the last year
2013-11-26 16:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what today also accomplished
2013-11-26 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was there was enough power for the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to move above its hesitation resistance level
2013-11-26 16:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like was mentioned this past weekend
2013-11-26 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the small caps and secondaries continue to lead here
2013-11-26 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the market should follow
2013-11-26 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ also closed above the 4000 level today
2013-11-26 16:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's move above blip resistance
2013-11-26 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would give us new upside targets
2013-11-26 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2013-11-26 16:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is now the highest level since early September of 2001
2013-11-26 16:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like 4225
2013-11-26 16:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we're able to take out the highs of just below +50
2013-11-26 16:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll be clear for a move to the all time highs
2013-11-26 16:30:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2013-11-26 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4450 would be next
2013-11-26 16:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then 5000
2013-11-26 16:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2013-11-26 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about before
2013-11-26 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have crashes as we did in 2001
2013-11-26 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the void of where bids are withdrawn creates a vacuum of sorts that is quickly filled once you re-enter this same area later on
2013-11-26 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why our upside target of 4000 was doable in such a small length of time
2013-11-26 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we got that target at the beginning of July when the index was at 3450
2013-11-26 16:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that's needed then is for constant buying
2013-11-26 16:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of things I believe many seem to forget about
2013-11-26 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the amount of float out there is far less than it used to be as many companies have been buying back their shares over the last 10 years to improve the value of their issues
2013-11-26 16:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one of the main reasons why prices continue to move higher and higher
2013-11-26 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the demand is so vast, but the supply far smaller than it used to be
2013-11-26 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though it may be a bit scary to see prices continue to inch higher and higher over the last several years
2013-11-26 16:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's pretty good reasons for this to occur
2013-11-26 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both on a technical, and foremost, on a fundamental basis
2013-11-26 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why, as technicians, that we continue to practice good discipline in our chart and analytical work
2013-11-26 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and leave the fear factor for others to talk and worry about
2013-11-26 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money continues to move in
2013-11-26 16:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just follow it until the balance of evidence suggests otherwise
2013-11-26 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this is the primary reason why prices move higher or lower...and that's based the amount of capital that available for investment and then the timing as to whether or not it's being put to work
2013-11-26 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all that matters
2013-11-26 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just a distraction
2013-11-26 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back to the zero line on Monday
2013-11-26 16:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also bounced off its demarcation line between bull and bear
2013-11-26 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this bounce shows the first, of what should be, an expansion gap to the upside in the NDX breadth MCSUM
2013-11-26 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've got to tell you
2013-11-26 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is getting to the point where we might be witnessing "something different" going on in the NAAD line
2013-11-26 16:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it has now been rising for a full year now
2013-11-26 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the history on this
2013-11-26 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not often when we see this kind of length in time for those issues that have very little going for them except "hope"
2013-11-26 16:41:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Many of the individual charts I'm trading look incredibly bullish-with very high targets...
2013-11-26 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2013-11-26 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I did a quick scan
2013-11-26 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only other time in which the NAAD line has risen for anywhere this length of time was in 2003
2013-11-26 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was only 10 months
2013-11-26 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a bit of history being made here
2013-11-26 16:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that the secondary market has been in a rising trend for a year
2013-11-26 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this goes back to the NASDAQ inception in 1972
2013-11-26 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: want to double check moment
2013-11-26 16:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...SC only goes back to 1990
2013-11-26 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'll have to check my spreadsheet at home
2013-11-26 16:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would appear that this is the longest amount of time in which the NAAD line has remained in an upward bias since 1990
2013-11-26 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's 23 years
2013-11-26 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so..."something different" to be sure
2013-11-26 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO
2013-11-26 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nearly so on the OEX breadth MCO
2013-11-26 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: little change means that there's nothing much more different than yesterday
2013-11-26 16:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the complex bullish structure in the Dow breadth MCO remains very much intact
2013-11-26 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point
2013-11-26 16:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow should continue to rise for the rest of the year
2013-11-26 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it gets to our target of 20,500 or not is probably a bit overboard
2013-11-26 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as the money continues to support prices here
2013-11-26 16:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will continue to see higher highs
2013-11-26 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the MID breadth MCO
2013-11-26 16:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look at the SML breadth MCO!
2013-11-26 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as, like the NASDAQ, it continues to power higher
2013-11-26 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the NASDAQ
2013-11-26 16:49:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sitting right under 1000 on the DOW summation is a great point for a statement day tomorrow...
2013-11-26 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have also moved above pattern resistance today in the SML breadth MCSUM
2013-11-26 16:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...could be
2013-11-26 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2013-11-26 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at one of those forks in the road
2013-11-26 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or, as you called it yesterday, a "jump ball" moment
2013-11-26 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-11-26 16:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we were to top out here
2013-11-26 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would be looking at the NASDAQ and the SML as not confirming the recent bullish activity as one way to ID a change in direction
2013-11-26 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're not showing any kind of rest here
2013-11-26 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we have a lot of bearish sentiment out there on a geopolitical basis right now
2013-11-26 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's keeping the wall of worry intact
2013-11-26 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: earnings have been great, so what's not to like?
2013-11-26 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the SML
2013-11-26 16:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the RUT which has been lagging
2013-11-26 16:52:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, jump ball, but these secondaries are putting a slight lean on me now-like the ref might not throw the ball up dead straight, LOL
2013-11-26 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close there as well
2013-11-26 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or one of the jumpers has springs in their shoes? [smile]
2013-11-26 16:53:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, [smile]
2013-11-26 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking an unfair advantage?
2013-11-26 16:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is amazing stuff
2013-11-26 16:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and meanwhile
2013-11-26 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I took a cursory view on a message board today
2013-11-26 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL people are trying to short this
2013-11-26 16:54:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they have sell signals-to a man
2013-11-26 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day...they will be right, of course
2013-11-26 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wonder how deep their pockets are
2013-11-26 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2013-11-26 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell signals only "count" IF the direction of money is moving in this same direction
2013-11-26 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2013-11-26 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a short term basis
2013-11-26 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's flat
2013-11-26 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2013-11-26 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still moving in...ON BALANCE
2013-11-26 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone wants to make a killing
2013-11-26 16:55:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Well, I saw one poster show up, that only comes when he sees a top-and it doesn't usually work out well for him-just sayin...
2013-11-26 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone wants to hit a home run
2013-11-26 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you have to make contact with the ball first before you can grab a base
2013-11-26 16:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw it too
2013-11-26 16:56:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: You taught me to take the singles and doubles-much appreciated!
2013-11-26 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are always people out there who are their own worst enemy
2013-11-26 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you got to make contact
2013-11-26 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you think you're going to hit a home run every time
2013-11-26 16:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're usually going to strike out trying
2013-11-26 16:57:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and accept that sometimes-you just have to hit and run
2013-11-26 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2013-11-26 16:57:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the data
2013-11-26 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also got a bounce today in the TM breadth MCO
2013-11-26 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whether it's above the previous spike point or not is really too close to call
2013-11-26 16:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...
2013-11-26 16:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when looking at the TM breadth MCSUM
2013-11-26 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now starting to see a slight upside curl to the pattern
2013-11-26 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these curls are a good indication on how things are likely to turn out over the near term
2013-11-26 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sooo..
2013-11-26 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as compressed as we were on Monday
2013-11-26 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the spring is even tightly wound now
2013-11-26 16:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and about to be released
2013-11-26 16:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both sides have an opportunity here
2013-11-26 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the buyers have a distinct advantage at this's theirs to lose
2013-11-26 17:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2013-11-26 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the XLY index
2013-11-26 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the XLY breadth MCO remains undecided at this time
2013-11-26 17:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this gives us a good example of when the MCSUM is as high as it is right now
2013-11-26 17:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take much to move prices above the highs of the previous bar
2013-11-26 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one index to watch on Wednesday as we get durable goods numbers in the morning
2013-11-26 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP continues to consolidate its gains at just below its all time highs
2013-11-26 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that the short term trend of money flow is showing less and less support with the series of declining tops we see on the XLP breadth MCO
2013-11-26 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2013-11-26 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how all of this is keeping the XLP breadth MCSUM from moving above natural resistance at +1000
2013-11-26 17:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at such a lofty level
2013-11-26 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the slightest mid course correction we see will allow prices to move up from here
2013-11-26 17:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like when the space shuttle uses a small amount of thrust to redirect the ship into a higher orbit
2013-11-26 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE is showing a lot of indecision right now
2013-11-26 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, on a short term basis, it can't find a way to break above the +25 level on the MCO
2013-11-26 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on an intermediate term basis, the sellers can't find enough conviction to break below the +250 level on the MCSUM
2013-11-26 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so we just chop sideways
2013-11-26 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the position of the MCSUM giving the nod to the bulls at this point
2013-11-26 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO is finding a lot of resistance at the +50 level
2013-11-26 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is why we saw a reversal in the price pattern today as this latest attempt to move above this same +50 level wasn't there today
2013-11-26 17:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...
2013-11-26 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern here has the look of the beginnings of an accelerated trend to the upside
2013-11-26 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very similar to all of the other sector charts were showing earlier this year
2013-11-26 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLF breadth MCSUM
2013-11-26 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that buying continues to move into this sector
2013-11-26 17:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have once again moved above the +500 level
2013-11-26 17:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the close up chart
2013-11-26 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see good post expansion to the upside as well
2013-11-26 17:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a move above the +50 level in the XLF breadth MCO
2013-11-26 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should allow prices here to really start to move higher with a purpose
2013-11-26 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our initial target at about the 25 level if my memory serves correctly
2013-11-26 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the large sums of money that continue to move into the XLV
2013-11-26 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know exactly what this means
2013-11-26 17:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether ACA is going to be postponed
2013-11-26 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or changed
2013-11-26 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or taken away
2013-11-26 17:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever money is thinking
2013-11-26 17:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's thinking that this sector is undervalued
2013-11-26 17:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll go with that
2013-11-26 17:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the XLV breadth MCSUM
2013-11-26 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we want to see supporting the underlying trend in prices
2013-11-26 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a large separation in the daily postings to the upside
2013-11-26 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way to look at this is that
2013-11-26 17:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater the expansion between posts
2013-11-26 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more the money moving in or moving out
2013-11-26 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the larger the spread of the posts
2013-11-26 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer it's going to take for the momentum of these same posts to contract
2013-11-26 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less curl towards the other direction
2013-11-26 17:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we remain friendly here towards this sector
2013-11-26 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way the 1 year price chart of the XLV is seemingly reaching out to the sky here
2013-11-26 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very impressive
2013-11-26 17:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the XLI breadth MCO
2013-11-26 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as we can maintain the XLI breadth MCSUM above the +1000 level
2013-11-26 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports are going to be the direct beneficiaries
2013-11-26 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we were afraid of 2 weeks ago
2013-11-26 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM is having its problems moving above the +800 level
2013-11-26 17:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like we have some internal exhaustion here
2013-11-26 17:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLB breadth MCO moving to lower lows last week
2013-11-26 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only able to snapback to the zero line and today settled at the -25 level
2013-11-26 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any take out of last weeks MCO lows
2013-11-26 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this might be a sector to shy away from
2013-11-26 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we already know that the PMAD line moved to new all time lows last week
2013-11-26 17:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this isn't bullish news for the Precious metals at all
2013-11-26 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...not too much happening in the XLK breadth MCO right now
2013-11-26 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as traders seem to be looking for some kind of sign to keep the ball rolling to the upside
2013-11-26 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the longer, and thereby, stronger line of the short term trend being on the negative side
2013-11-26 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that the buyers really need to get off their indecision and make a statement here
2013-11-26 17:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when we look at the XLK breadth MCSUM
2013-11-26 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers are not showing any kind of conviction at all
2013-11-26 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: appears to be a pause to refresh
2013-11-26 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the inside chance of cracking above internal resistance
2013-11-26 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience is still needed there
2013-11-26 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not a good day for XLU breadth MCO
2013-11-26 17:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we are on a "Sign of the Bear" alert
2013-11-26 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice here how we broke below horizontal support in prices as the XLU breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line
2013-11-26 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO itself moved below its reaction lows of early September
2013-11-26 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one can surmise one or two things there
2013-11-26 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either money is leaving the relative safety of steady income (value) and moving into that of growth
2013-11-26 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2013-11-26 17:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is thinking that interest rates are going to move above 3% in the 10 year note
2013-11-26 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or more importantly
2013-11-26 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are about to move higher in T-Bills
2013-11-26 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...either theory here is reasonable given current money flow indicators
2013-11-26 17:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever the real reason might turn out to be
2013-11-26 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not the time to play a game of chance with your money
2013-11-26 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a full out sell signal on the Utilities
2013-11-26 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably one of the few areas that one could buck the overall trend and make money doing it
2013-11-26 17:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-11-26 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the major sectors we review here remain buoyant...
2013-11-26 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although both the Materials and Utilities are showing weakness here
2013-11-26 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strongest area is, by far, health care
2013-11-26 17:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with something percolating below the surface in the financials
2013-11-26 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2013-11-26 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2013-11-26 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we has some improvement from yesterday's readings
2013-11-26 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which were pretty much neutral except for the Dow
2013-11-26 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's check the sectors as well
2013-11-26 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all pretty much compliment the larger indices
2013-11-26 17:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLU is looking very weak here
2013-11-26 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-11-26 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do get an SOB trigger in the XLU
2013-11-26 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that trigger would occur with a close below 36
2013-11-26 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside target there is...
2013-11-26 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks to be about 28
2013-11-26 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...28 to 30
2013-11-26 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're firm that up if and when the trigger is given
2013-11-26 17:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.35
2013-11-26 17:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2013-11-26 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2013-11-26 17:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're correcting on the fly now
2013-11-26 17:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.32
2013-11-26 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2013-11-26 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2013-11-26 17:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's with new recovery highs?
2013-11-26 17:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deception...
2013-11-26 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trickery
2013-11-26 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.20
2013-11-26 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2013-11-26 17:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-11-26 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the the bulls continue to control the ball
2013-11-26 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless they fumble it away
2013-11-26 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see them drive prices higher
2013-11-26 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my gut is still gnawing at me that we're likely to see our resolution on Wednesday
2013-11-26 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for many
2013-11-26 17:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure all they want to see is at least 2 straight days of movement in one direction or the other
2013-11-26 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sensing though that the shorts are really at their wits end now
2013-11-26 17:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this usually occurs right before we start seeing white flags
2013-11-26 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2013-11-26 17:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-11-26 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week will be our usually Tuesday/Thursday format
2013-11-26 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-11-26 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the month of December is likely to be this way
2013-11-26 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get into the holidays
2013-11-26 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comments...questions??
2013-11-26 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I hope everyone is doing well here and making money
2013-11-26 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just follow the hasn't lied to us yet
2013-11-26 17:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-11-26 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take my leave
2013-11-26 17:39:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think we may blow North-I lean that way
2013-11-26 17:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great Thanksgivukkah!
2013-11-26 17:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2013-11-26 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are looking next Tuesday
2013-11-26 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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