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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-11-25 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-11-25 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-11-25 16:00:38 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: doing well...hope you are
2014-11-25 16:00:44 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: great...and you?
2014-11-25 16:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm doing fine and dandy...
2014-11-25 16:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like our charts are updated today [smile]
2014-11-25 16:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SC got around to correcting Monday's errors about 1:30 eastern
2014-11-25 16:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-11-25 16:03:05 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I didn't get a chance to look at the charts until late last night but i immediately noticed the NASDAQ Comp MCSum being a problem
2014-11-25 16:03:23 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: glad it's fixed
2014-11-25 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...so was the NYSE RA MCO
2014-11-25 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I forwarded them the data...
2014-11-25 16:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...all is right with the world once again [smile]
2014-11-25 16:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get the charts up and get going
2014-11-25 16:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving higher on Monday
2014-11-25 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO eased off a bit today
2014-11-25 16:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while today's price bar in the NYA showed a lack of upside follow through by the buyers
2014-11-25 16:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this provided us with a "false start"
2014-11-25 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it gets a bit tricky
2014-11-25 16:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the holiday weekend is a day away
2014-11-25 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have a boat load of economic data being released on Wednesday
2014-11-25 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one doesn't really know if today was position squaring or if it was taking money off the table before the data is released
2014-11-25 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, is only a near term problem
2014-11-25 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will resolve itself in the morning
2014-11-25 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2014-11-25 16:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM continued higher today
2014-11-25 16:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now cleared the +500 level
2014-11-25 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not that far away where we can say that we've moved beyond the point of escape velocity
2014-11-25 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good post expansion on Wednesday will confirm this
2014-11-25 16:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-11-25 16:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we generated a small point change of a -3
2014-11-25 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2014-11-25 16:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what is a real rarity here
2014-11-25 16:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NYSE CO and Composite MCSUM's have identical readings of +547
2014-11-25 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market remains within a great cadence right now
2014-11-25 16:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no appearance of the common and interest rate sensitive issues diverging from each other
2014-11-25 16:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we almost got a small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-11-25 16:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but missed by a point according to the guidelines
2014-11-25 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...
2014-11-25 16:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's small enough to indicate that there is some indecision between buyers and sellers right now
2014-11-25 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-11-25 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the buyers are taking control of the action since our pause point from last week
2014-11-25 16:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important for the buyers to continue to maintain this support in the coming days
2014-11-25 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for until we get back above the +250 level
2014-11-25 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will be vulnerable to any ambushes that may be out there by the bears
2014-11-25 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see another "exhaustion" type price bar today in the NASDAQ Composite
2014-11-25 16:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though not as dramatic as the one we saw last Friday
2014-11-25 16:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the crosscurrents going on right now
2014-11-25 16:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of today's range is probably due to traders having little interest with the holidays coming
2014-11-25 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this lack of volume, or conviction, allows the bear market default to sag prices lower
2014-11-25 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM has now cleared the +1250 level
2014-11-25 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any upside follow through here by Friday would then push our next chance of seeing resistance at the +1500 level
2014-11-25 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX
2014-11-25 16:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how today's price bar would give you the indication of an exhaustive move
2014-11-25 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it closed lower than yesterday's close
2014-11-25 16:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be part of the inside range day we were talking about on Monday
2014-11-25 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we closed higher on Friday...so a lower close would had been expected today
2014-11-25 16:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM though
2014-11-25 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to move into new 52 week high territory
2014-11-25 16:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing just below the +1200 level today
2014-11-25 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern of the SPX breadth MCO is also showing some weakness here
2014-11-25 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we didn't have enough to move to higher highs today
2014-11-25 16:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the OEX breadth MCO and MCSUM
2014-11-25 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we actually closed below yesterday's lows in the OEX price action
2014-11-25 16:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate that we'll likely churn around for a day or so
2014-11-25 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in an attempt to regroup and then try to move to higher highs
2014-11-25 16:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also an outside range day
2014-11-25 16:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this could be indicating a down close tomorrow as well
2014-11-25 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it would appear that this is more of another consolidation pattern
2014-11-25 16:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than that of retracing more than 50% of the move we saw on Friday
2014-11-25 16:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the Dow breadth MCO
2014-11-25 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we did move to a lower low today
2014-11-25 16:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices did remain range bound
2014-11-25 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of crosscurrents here
2014-11-25 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM is now within 45 data points of reaching its next area of resistance at the +1000 level
2014-11-25 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just missed in closing at new all time price highs today by .20
2014-11-25 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a small pullback as well in the SML breadth MCO
2014-11-25 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but notice that we have some supportive texture below us
2014-11-25 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the buyers step up near term
2014-11-25 16:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are able to push this MCO to a higher high
2014-11-25 16:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we should continue to see prices moving higher overall as part of a trend having solid internal support to work with moving forward
2014-11-25 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2014-11-25 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we find ourselves closing just above the top seen in September in the TM breadth MCSUM
2014-11-25 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any follow through here would then allow this MCSUM to see its next challenge at the +500 level
2014-11-25 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it was a sloppy trading day today
2014-11-25 16:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one could assume that it would be part of traders closing shop for the week
2014-11-25 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the other school of thought is that this was in preparation to Wednesday's economic numbers which include...
2014-11-25 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: durable goods
2014-11-25 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: personal income
2014-11-25 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Chicago PMI
2014-11-25 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Jobless claims
2014-11-25 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Home sales
2014-11-25 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Pending Home Sales
2014-11-25 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Consumer Sentiment
2014-11-25 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a whole menu of "stuff"
2014-11-25 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with nothing due out on Friday
2014-11-25 16:35:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Man those home builders charts look pretty bullish to me....
2014-11-25 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty amazing, huh?
2014-11-25 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are in November?
2014-11-25 16:36:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-11-25 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would say...OK...no problem in the spring
2014-11-25 16:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we go into the holidays?
2014-11-25 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we touched upon yesterday
2014-11-25 16:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both interest rates and commodities remain friendly
2014-11-25 16:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-11-25 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I betcha...wait...let me look - one sec
2014-11-25 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2014-11-25 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was going to say that the price of lumber was probably trending lower
2014-11-25 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but its had a nice pop the last couple of weeks as well
2014-11-25 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 6% in a month
2014-11-25 16:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's demand
2014-11-25 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know more by February of what's really going on
2014-11-25 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but money is liking what it's seeing
2014-11-25 16:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's all that counts
2014-11-25 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the sector McClellan's
2014-11-25 16:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid range close on the XLY index
2014-11-25 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the durable goods numbers come out tomorrow
2014-11-25 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM continues to trend nicely to the upside
2014-11-25 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving up and through the +1250 level
2014-11-25 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any near term follow through there
2014-11-25 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see this current rally in prices to continue
2014-11-25 16:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see if I can get an upside target there...one sec
2014-11-25 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...
2014-11-25 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $85?
2014-11-25 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want to see how strong the current move is as it relates to money moving in to this basket of stocks
2014-11-25 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: extend the time axis out to 5 years
2014-11-25 16:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that this is the first time since 2010 where there has been no hesitation in this upside move in the XLY breadth MCSUM
2014-11-25 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we started from a classic "oversold" level
2014-11-25 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where back in 2010 we only tested the -500 level
2014-11-25 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were at $30 then
2014-11-25 16:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this pattern is far more bullish
2014-11-25 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2014-11-25 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take ruler to monitor
2014-11-25 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and connect the summer lows of 2011 and 2012 and extend it out
2014-11-25 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the just finished pullback in October found support right ON that line
2014-11-25 16:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this thing is a monster
2014-11-25 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a continued buy and hold
2014-11-25 16:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's keep with the 5 year time period
2014-11-25 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLP breadth MCSUM and it's even more bullish than the XLY
2014-11-25 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we found support right at the zero line before moving to currently challenging the highs of 2013
2014-11-25 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here on the 5 year chart
2014-11-25 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how the price action has been hugging this angle of ascent for some time now
2014-11-25 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who sees chart patterns like this?
2014-11-25 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is really amazing what's going on here
2014-11-25 16:50:56 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes it is
2014-11-25 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still there are those who refuse to embrace this bull trend and keep calling this a "rally"
2014-11-25 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STAPLES have now doubled in 4 years!
2014-11-25 16:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is as conservative as you get
2014-11-25 16:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we've doubled?
2014-11-25 16:52:11 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes it is no mention in the media
2014-11-25 16:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do they know?
2014-11-25 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nada
2014-11-25 16:52:30 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-11-25 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyday is..."we can't go any higher"
2014-11-25 16:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was listening to Squawk Box this morning
2014-11-25 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL the group is trying to find reasons why that this "rally" can't go any further!
2014-11-25 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and using the same old cliches
2014-11-25 16:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-11-25 16:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE 5 year chart
2014-11-25 16:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one has to be blind that the current price action sure looks like a bear flag formation
2014-11-25 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-11-25 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLE breadth MCSUM just coming off its lowest level in 5 years (at least)
2014-11-25 16:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the way the XLE breadth MCO is gyrating here
2014-11-25 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not so sure anymore that we'll see any real improvement in this sector for a while longer
2014-11-25 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you apply a ruler to the monitor here
2014-11-25 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only do we see that the trend from 2012 has been broken
2014-11-25 16:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the current price action is following the underside of this same trendline that was broken
2014-11-25 16:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2014-11-25 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a technical snapback
2014-11-25 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is sure to fall away from
2014-11-25 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term from 2010
2014-11-25 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rising trendline intersects at about the $76 level
2014-11-25 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's probably prudent now to step aside from this sector as far as further upside action is concerned
2014-11-25 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to look for a probable downside resumption
2014-11-25 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when are the OPECers meeting?
2014-11-25 16:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone know...is it this week?
2014-11-25 16:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know it's sometime in the next 2
2014-11-25 16:58:43 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Nov 27
2014-11-25 16:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2014-11-25 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is an important announcement for this sector
2014-11-25 16:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given how the XLE breadth MCO fell apart today
2014-11-25 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it smells funny
2014-11-25 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: So Mike..take heed
2014-11-25 17:02:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Heard you loud and clear
2014-11-25 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 5 year XLF
2014-11-25 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the latest run to +150 on the breadth MCO was the highest number for the time seen on the chart
2014-11-25 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is then a technical breadth thrust here
2014-11-25 17:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should lead to a multi year (at least 2) advance in this basket of stocks
2014-11-25 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLF breadth MCSUM
2014-11-25 17:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see again how it moved above the levels seen in over a year
2014-11-25 17:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will take quite a bit more work before we'll see a challenge of the 2013 highs
2014-11-25 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: applying the ruler to monitor here
2014-11-25 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks as though that the October lows pierced the trendline
2014-11-25 17:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have found a way to move to higher highs in spite of this
2014-11-25 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually when this happens on a longer term view
2014-11-25 17:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that "piercing" point was where the great majority of weak hands had their exit
2014-11-25 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the meat of the advance can get underway on the back of a wall of worry
2014-11-25 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would make good sense especially if what we're seeing as whispers on the domestic economic front spreads to Europe...Latin America...and China
2014-11-25 17:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're still a way off from even challenging the all time highs made in 2007 at $32
2014-11-25 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm glad we're taking a moment here to look at the longer term
2014-11-25 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it gives us some much needed perspective
2014-11-25 17:09:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: A real eye opener
2014-11-25 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5 year chart in the XLV is jaw dropping
2014-11-25 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's gained a whopping 126% in 3 years
2014-11-25 17:10:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: From $6ish to today's number
2014-11-25 17:11:15 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: $24
2014-11-25 17:11:26 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: From 2009
2014-11-25 17:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how powerful the price trend has been as well when looking at how long the XLV breadth MCSUM has stayed above its zero line over the last 2 years
2014-11-25 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2014-11-25 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it has amazingly broken above a strong set of declining tops just recently
2014-11-25 17:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this sector evidently has a lot more to run
2014-11-25 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains a strong buy and hold
2014-11-25 17:13:06 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Maybe set a few times a year to preview the longer term charts?
2014-11-25 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we generally do this as a matter of course
2014-11-25 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but usually we do this quarterly
2014-11-25 17:13:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Oh I'm still new here
2014-11-25 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but haven't done it since the spring
2014-11-25 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no problem
2014-11-25 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back then
2014-11-25 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only reviewed the 3 year time frame
2014-11-25 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing this 5 year period does more than anything else
2014-11-25 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it puts to rest of any ideas that this is somehow "manufactured"
2014-11-25 17:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trends like this can not be maintained based only on "government intervention" alone
2014-11-25 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as no government is that large that it can actually make a difference these days
2014-11-25 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLI price pattern
2014-11-25 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the textbook "platform diving" pattern we just had
2014-11-25 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's as if one is bouncing off a diving board
2014-11-25 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with each bounce bending the board lower before the actual release point in gaining the greatest height
2014-11-25 17:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM also has shown a lot of strength in this sector as well
2014-11-25 17:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we got "oversold" last month
2014-11-25 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has released a ton of pent up energy to the upside
2014-11-25 17:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the buyers want here, of course, is to take out the +1500 level
2014-11-25 17:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that can be done
2014-11-25 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the 22,500 target objective for the Dow will then have to be adjusted higher
2014-11-25 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also a great example of what it takes for an uptrend to take place and remain structurally solid
2014-11-25 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLI MCSUM continued to show wave after wave of positive money flow above the zero line for almost 2 years
2014-11-25 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing stuff
2014-11-25 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of thing has never happened in this large of time frame
2014-11-25 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it brings home that point of how much liquidity is really out there
2014-11-25 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it's probably going to take a long time before it's going to make a difference for the bears
2014-11-25 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the 5 year chart of the XLB breadth MCSUM is showing bullish implications here
2014-11-25 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that this whole excitement with the home builders has been directly linked to materials seeing an important "oversold" reading in the XLB breadth MCSUM last month
2014-11-25 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like the longer term trendline here on the XLB price action actually found closing support on this same line during the October swoon
2014-11-25 17:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLK data
2014-11-25 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're seeing the same thing internally
2014-11-25 17:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLK breadth MCSUM staying above its zero line for almost 2 years
2014-11-25 17:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all the sellers were able to muster up was a snapback to that of being neutral overall before the resumption to the upside in prices
2014-11-25 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to the monitor
2014-11-25 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and drawing a line from the November 2012 lows
2014-11-25 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the October correction bounced right off this same support line
2014-11-25 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very bullish implications there
2014-11-25 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the XLK MCSUM is about to challenge the highs from the 2nd quarter of last year
2014-11-25 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the other charts
2014-11-25 17:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a classic 45+ degree angle of ascent working here
2014-11-25 17:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to take a while before we'll see any indication of a top
2014-11-25 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just too much money chasing after a limited supply
2014-11-25 17:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which much of this is because of all the stock buybacks over the years
2014-11-25 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much demand + not enough supply = rising prices
2014-11-25 17:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really as simple as that
2014-11-25 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a 5 year look at the XLU data shows that the index, though in a extended uptrend, looks to be huffing and puffing its way in this direction
2014-11-25 17:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the other sector charts that had an easier time of maintaining their directional trend
2014-11-25 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too we can see the underlying reason for this multi year choppiness
2014-11-25 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLU breadth MCSUM doesn't show the same kind of sideways structure above its zero line over the last 2 years as the others have shown
2014-11-25 17:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's currently below the XLU breadth MCO zero line
2014-11-25 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with that all said
2014-11-25 17:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have 3 angles of ascent here on this longer term price chart
2014-11-25 17:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like the other sectors
2014-11-25 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take several more months before we'll really start to see substantive data to suggest that a price top is behind us
2014-11-25 17:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-25 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this rather eye opening review of the 5 year data
2014-11-25 17:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it appears that we have very strong trends in all of these sector charts
2014-11-25 17:36:21 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Do you think we have seen the high for this move in the XLE?
2014-11-25 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a year that ends in 5 showing it has a historic bias to being the strongest year during a decade
2014-11-25 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see continued strength, most likely, for another year
2014-11-25 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having re-examined the XLE
2014-11-25 17:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be more defensive now
2014-11-25 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was bothering me of late
2014-11-25 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that the bounce we've seen in crude
2014-11-25 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has not been what one would call robust
2014-11-25 17:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-11-25 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we looked at the price chart and saw the underlying commodity making lower lows
2014-11-25 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the assumption was that it was likely to be a bullish indicator of a bottom
2014-11-25 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now with this bird's eye view we've taken today
2014-11-25 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern sure looks like a bear flag
2014-11-25 17:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we were not able to hold above $88 for 2 days in a row
2014-11-25 17:39:43 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: i was thinking it was a corrective move up, but was thinking it might have a little more to go
2014-11-25 17:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we actually saw the XLE breadth MCO move sharply lower today
2014-11-25 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking for a breakdown now
2014-11-25 17:40:04 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks
2014-11-25 17:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's worth a shot
2014-11-25 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep the stops tight
2014-11-25 17:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest here
2014-11-25 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OPECer's having their meeting on the holiday
2014-11-25 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would step aside and see how that shakes out
2014-11-25 17:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2014-11-25 17:40:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we noticed some unusually large option shorts on XLE in my room
2014-11-25 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can always hitch a ride later
2014-11-25 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something is not right though...that's for sure
2014-11-25 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it "smells"
2014-11-25 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback to $88..OK...
2014-11-25 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't seem to be holding here
2014-11-25 17:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the short term trend on this
2014-11-25 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like that a break below the flag would come in at around $85
2014-11-25 17:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one could hold long here with a stop just below that
2014-11-25 17:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the SAR
2014-11-25 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Stop and Reverse is at $84.16
2014-11-25 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-11-25 17:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's sell off had expanding volume
2014-11-25 17:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want to see what the price pattern is up against
2014-11-25 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take the price chart and apply a 20, 50 and 200 day EMA
2014-11-25 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see that we closed back below the 20 day today
2014-11-25 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this puts the pattern back into a bearish configuration
2014-11-25 17:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take that and add the sharp decline in the XLE breadth MCO over the last couple of days
2014-11-25 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in which was not expected with the complexity of the bullish sideways pattern
2014-11-25 17:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this adds up to a "full stop" on the long side
2014-11-25 17:45:54 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I'll probably dump my longs tomorrow...it was a small position anyway. Thanks
2014-11-25 17:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good play...up until today
2014-11-25 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just wouldn't hold with a major announcement coming on a day in which you can't make a trade
2014-11-25 17:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my guess
2014-11-25 17:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's only a guess
2014-11-25 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the Saudi's want to make it very difficult for some of its neighbors and their "gangs" from making any more money than they can afford to make to carry out plans that might be not in the region's best interest
2014-11-25 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they still hold the power in that respect
2014-11-25 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they can still call the shots
2014-11-25 17:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sounds like the 1970's all over again
2014-11-25 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I would be cautious here on the long side near term
2014-11-25 17:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while looking for a longer term fall out
2014-11-25 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume oscillators...
2014-11-25 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing very little change from yesterday...so the data there was good
2014-11-25 17:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.23
2014-11-25 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2014-11-25 17:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still neutral
2014-11-25 17:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .90
2014-11-25 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 back to near "overbought" at .81
2014-11-25 17:51:43 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: I like your "guess" on oil
2014-11-25 17:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.04
2014-11-25 17:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2014-11-25 17:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thing about oil is that
2014-11-25 17:52:17 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: some say....higher dollar and lower crude puts a "little more pressure" on Putin also
2014-11-25 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the energy stocks were leading and holding divergence
2014-11-25 17:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that after what looked like a capitulation move in the commodity itself
2014-11-25 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it would show a better rebound to match what the stocks were indicating
2014-11-25 17:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that hasn't happened
2014-11-25 17:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now
2014-11-25 17:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stocks are starting to weaken
2014-11-25 17:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they should be strengthening based on the way the XLE breadth MCO has been showing that there was money continuing to support this basket of issues
2014-11-25 17:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that also Hawk
2014-11-25 17:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thing about crude more than any other commodity
2014-11-25 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it can put political pressure on those who use their sales to promote an agenda
2014-11-25 17:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll notice that
2014-11-25 17:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the price of crude has been moving lower
2014-11-25 17:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have heard less and less about those countries and groups that used the proceeds from these sales to generate fear and conquest
2014-11-25 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Iran
2014-11-25 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Hamas
2014-11-25 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: etc
2014-11-25 17:55:40 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: yes, it does
2014-11-25 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISIS
2014-11-25 17:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-11-25 17:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it wasn't for the timely beheading last week
2014-11-25 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISIS has become a non event
2014-11-25 17:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though still dangerous
2014-11-25 17:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but their capital to promote has dried up
2014-11-25 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway..we'll see how it goes
2014-11-25 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that longer term price chart sure smacks of the idea that we're not quite finished to the downside
2014-11-25 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2014-11-25 17:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many other opportunities out there
2014-11-25 17:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that are a lot more stable and "predictable"
2014-11-25 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-11-25 17:58:04 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: nothing here....thank you again and have a wonderful Holiday weekend!
2014-11-25 17:58:26 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: Happy turkey day to all
2014-11-25 17:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we all can take away from this change of opinion though
2014-11-25 17:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2014-11-25 17:58:34 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Happy Thanksgiving everybody!
2014-11-25 17:58:44 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks and wishing every one a Happy Thanksgiving1
2014-11-25 17:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one should never be afraid to change their mind as more information becomes available
2014-11-25 17:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2014-11-25 17:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think I will close for now
2014-11-25 17:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great Thanksgiving holiday
2014-11-25 17:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll pick this up again next Tuesday
2014-11-25 17:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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