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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-11-25 19:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-11-25 19:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-11-25 19:01:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: g. amd u?
2008-11-25 19:01:35 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Great, thx.
2008-11-25 19:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: honestly...worried
2008-11-25 19:02:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Worried? .... Bear market over....Hank and Ben have fixed all problems. Buy, buy, buy!
2008-11-25 19:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're all screwed...but I digress...
2008-11-25 19:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-11-25 19:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Holiday schedule...no chat this Thursday...and at this point, we'll have regular schedule the 1st week of December
2008-11-25 19:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will know more about the 2nd week next week, and then dark for the rest of the year
2008-11-25 19:04:54 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: thx for ETFC post on the weekend...up 50 percent today
2008-11-25 19:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-11-25 19:05:13 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: good heads up
2008-11-25 19:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they must have gotten some good news on the TARP?
2008-11-25 19:06:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Need to beware nowadays of being short certain securities overnight
2008-11-25 19:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: overnight trading is for only those with steel stomachs...too much globally going on right now
2008-11-25 19:06:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Could wake up any day to a news of Ben working overnight
2008-11-25 19:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and how about this slow day today?
2008-11-25 19:08:14 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, markets moved less than 1% it the close.....different
2008-11-25 19:08:43 [Message] muley -> Main Room: oscillating about a now obvious important level on the SPX
2008-11-25 19:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's get DP up and see how things are going
2008-11-25 19:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or...just a simple snapback - check out the SPX cash in line form
2008-11-25 19:09:50 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: lod today was the rising SPX 15sma on the 60min SPX
2008-11-25 19:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...after generating a reset on Thursday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO has moved briskly back above the zero line today and has now taken out both of the previous hesitation moves to the downside
2008-11-25 19:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this now gives us the "probability" of bull divergence in place
2008-11-25 19:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's a small little problem - and that comes with the components which both remain below their zero lines at this time
2008-11-25 19:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this then instructs us that the current bounce is that of corrective activity and it will need further follow through to help in maintaining the current price structure
2008-11-25 19:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-11-25 19:13:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Would we be looking for 0 line retest on MCO now?
2008-11-25 19:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would appear that it's in the process of trying to construct a double bottom at this time
2008-11-25 19:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, a zero line retest would become our next technical expectation
2008-11-25 19:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far then it's pretty much like our marathon runner is once again trying to stand, and maybe continue the race that was started two weeks ago
2008-11-25 19:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether or not the runner will be smarter this time around is still up for debate
2008-11-25 19:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after snapping back up to its zero line yesterday, the composite NYSE breadth MCO did show some follow through action today above this same line
2008-11-25 19:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where a snapback to or towards this same zero line is now our near term expectation
2008-11-25 19:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as with the common only data, the MCO components here too remain well below their zero line
2008-11-25 19:16:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fib, was logged on, just sat down for a sec, have a question for ya, ill read answer in a little, wave count wise, finished minute 4 in minor 4 up, expect on another triangle, thought?
2008-11-25 19:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM, we seem to be trying to find natural support at -1500 level
2008-11-25 19:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I haven't really looked at the data in total Dave, but if I had to take a guess right now...
2008-11-25 19:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...let's save it for later...OK?
2008-11-25 19:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also showed some follow through today and is now back above its zero line
2008-11-25 19:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like the previous charts, it's components remain well below their zero lines suggesting this to be nothing more than an "oversold" bounce or reflex
2008-11-25 19:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do have to watch for now on a more longer term basis is that the composite NYSE and NASDAQ breadth MCSUM are supporting what could turn out to be bottom above bottom structures
2008-11-25 19:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this could lead us to believe that - putting our Elliott hat on - that we have now completed Minor 3 down in the longer term pattern
2008-11-25 19:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would mean Minor 4 is under way
2008-11-25 19:22:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Minor 4 up?
2008-11-25 19:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the context you're referring to...Minor 4 up...but this is a corrective wave or counter trend structure
2008-11-25 19:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's not at all confirmed as yet
2008-11-25 19:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be something else...
2008-11-25 19:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'll spit it out
2008-11-25 19:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe that we're in the midst of a 5th wave extension - this is wave 2 up
2008-11-25 19:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would mean that the month of December isn't going to look pretty
2008-11-25 19:24:18 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: uh oh
2008-11-25 19:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but let's move on and see if there's the evidence to back this up
2008-11-25 19:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the NDX breadth MCO today, and the bulls are badly in need of more ammunition to keep this party going
2008-11-25 19:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is also apparent is that only the CO breadth MCO has been able to take out both of the previous downside hesitation points seen in early November
2008-11-25 19:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with our experience in the last year when it comes to the commons, we should be on guard of at least a false start here, if not, a short covering rally generating much of the price gains in the last couple of days
2008-11-25 19:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of the rally in the last two days has the earmark of previous bounces after the 10/10 bottom including news related items to move the market equal and opposite
2008-11-25 19:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCO moving higher from last weeks lows without any texture to the pattern, one should be careful in "hoping" that we've come to some sort of end to the recent carnage
2008-11-25 19:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO also continued higher today, and it did take out the second hesitation point we've been discussing
2008-11-25 19:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which gives us reason to pause as it's very important that we consider which areas are more important when we review market activity
2008-11-25 19:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that the NYSE composite encompasses ALL of the stocks traded on the exchange
2008-11-25 19:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to have only 500 of them leading higher (no less those "common" in scope), we have to be on guard that institutional play might be going on here especially when we consider both the end of the month, and the holiday shorten week
2008-11-25 19:32:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Lower low on MCSUM here?
2008-11-25 19:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and that's another little problem
2008-11-25 19:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be an ultimate low here, but what about the broader market?
2008-11-25 19:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so in this vein, we seem to be out of sync near term, and needing another cleansing to right the ship again
2008-11-25 19:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so keeping this idea in mind, we also have to be mindful that this last couple of days of turnaround might only be snapback action to the lows that were taken out last week
2008-11-25 19:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far then, there isn't enough substantial evidence that a important bottom might be behind us
2008-11-25 19:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only the "feeling" that it might be - which is always dangerous
2008-11-25 19:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: adding to the mess here, we have the OEX breadth MCO also moving back above the zero line, but it hasn't moved above both of the MCO hesitation points like the SPX has
2008-11-25 19:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the market is being very selective right now, and because of this churning effect going on, we're more than likely going to have a regroup before we can attempt to follow through to the upside
2008-11-25 19:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately though, tomorrow should be a slow day, and Friday is always a challenge
2008-11-25 19:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we might have to wait until next week to get more answers to the questions being posed today
2008-11-25 19:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same situation with the Dow internals
2008-11-25 19:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and, yes, I know it can become frustrating with the high amount of volatility within this same crash sequence
2008-11-25 19:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is where patience is needed
2008-11-25 19:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but for the scalpers out there, the fun will continue for a while until we settle down and get back into a better rhythm
2008-11-25 19:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID has also streaked higher after last weeks lows in the breadth MCO
2008-11-25 19:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you'll notice once again that this index' MCSUM is attempting to find support at the -1750 level
2008-11-25 19:41:43 [Message] doc -> Main Room: MID AD line is bumping right up against its downtrend line from the sept highs
2008-11-25 19:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile, the SML breadth MCSUM has moved to lower lows, and it too is attempting to find support at the -1750 level as well
2008-11-25 19:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks for that Doc
2008-11-25 19:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Total Market breadth MCSUM is also trying to turn up at around the -1500 level, and looking very much like the composite NYSE data on both the MCO and its components
2008-11-25 19:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far then, we seem playing out what last Thursday's expectation was of a simple relief rally in progress
2008-11-25 19:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the "probability" of bull divergence on only some of the indices...with only the "possibility" of such on the broader market internals
2008-11-25 19:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...too far, too fast is the order of the day, with some sort of backing and filling should be our near term expectation over the next couple of trading days
2008-11-25 19:46:17 [Message] doc -> Main Room: I note that by and large as the various indexes are flirting with or above the Oct 27 lows, the respective AD lines are generally well below the Oct 27 lows..I view that as bearish near-term
2008-11-25 19:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...there is a whole lot of money out there, but there's still too many problems right now to call anything really
2008-11-25 19:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we can say though is that the market is deeply "oversold" on many measures, but this doesn't at all mean that we've bottomed
2008-11-25 19:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more than likely, we will see lower price lows within the next 2 months
2008-11-25 19:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be after a Minor 4 scenario, but the MCSUM's are so "oversold" right now, that it's a pretty good bet that this thing isn't over
2008-11-25 19:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of the XLF - same situation
2008-11-25 19:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's very important to remember that even if the MCSUM continues to turn around and move still higher, this doesn't at all mean that a new intermediate uptrend is a given...it's going to take time
2008-11-25 19:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take a quick look at the sector breadth charts
2008-11-25 19:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLY breadth MCO is also back above its zero line, and this has left behind a small series of bottoms above bottoms
2008-11-25 19:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like the broader index charts, the XLY breadth components both remain below their zero lines
2008-11-25 19:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we have to go with the idea that this current 3 day rally is just to relieve the pressure built up by the massive selling of the last couple of months
2008-11-25 19:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the XLY breadth MCSUM, it's attempting to find natural support at the -2000 level
2008-11-25 19:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these numbers are just off the scale folks...really amazing
2008-11-25 19:54:17 [Message] doc -> Main Room: technically, these 3 days seem very similar to the Oct 10, 13-14 3 day pop.
2008-11-25 19:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir...very similar in many ways...including the news behind the moves
2008-11-25 19:55:17 [Message] doc -> Main Room: i remember most of those gains were wiped out over the next 2 days...
2008-11-25 19:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bottom line though is that the market is still very vulnerable to downside
2008-11-25 20:02:33 [Message] jnavin -> Main Room: What do you make of the T-bond rally?
2008-11-25 20:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: T-Bonds..."overbought"
2008-11-25 20:03:02 [Message] doc -> Main Room: high yield bonds have virtually no bounce from the dramatic drops of the last 3 weeks--another bearish caution IMHO
2008-11-25 20:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I made a point on the Bond A/D chart last weekend in what I believe is really happening
2008-11-25 20:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLP breadth MCO found zero line resistance today with the components remaining on a cross over sell signal
2008-11-25 20:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is a defensive sector?
2008-11-25 20:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even if were seeing a bear market rally, where's the defensiveness that goes with it?
2008-11-25 20:06:39 [Message] doc -> Main Room: wait till you see health care
2008-11-25 20:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what happened to the safe plays?
2008-11-25 20:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and people are thinking that a bottom is behind us?
2008-11-25 20:07:32 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: 'safe'? in a 'crash', correlation nears 1 => everything goes down
2008-11-25 20:07:50 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: but you know that
2008-11-25 20:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have never seen in my 40 years of doing this such incredibly bad internal configurations as we have right now
2008-11-25 20:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the internal pressure here to sell, especially in light of the trillions of dollars in the system in the last couple of months, is hard to fathom
2008-11-25 20:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLE data is looking fairly good here with the 10% component now just below its zero line
2008-11-25 20:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we're starting to see nice internal action here with the energy complex
2008-11-25 20:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: part of this is due to valuation, and some is due to seasonality factors as well
2008-11-25 20:10:56 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: I hear it is getting hard to get gold. I wonder what is going on there.
2008-11-25 20:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know about gold...but I do know that I would be VERY careful with the PM stocks
2008-11-25 20:11:29 [Message] doc -> Main Room: colder than normal winter, nat gas might benefit
2008-11-25 20:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and the COT data on Natural Gas is very bullish right now
2008-11-25 20:11:50 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Not stocks, but metal. I sold some coins today and got 70 over spot
2008-11-25 20:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be government buying going on...maybe the BOE
2008-11-25 20:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...things still look corrective there
2008-11-25 20:13:01 [Message] doc -> Main Room: ADXs on XLE also look low enough to support a new trend
2008-11-25 20:13:06 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Many mints (Aussie for example) have suspended sales
2008-11-25 20:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hording, eh?
2008-11-25 20:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: seems to be a prominent theme of late
2008-11-25 20:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLE breadth MCSUM has also broken above its recent declining tops line, and has now minimally fulfilled a snapback
2008-11-25 20:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, this is one sector to keep an eye on short term, for if the XLE breadth MCO can take out the reaction highs of earlier this month, this should be enough for leave confirmed bull divergence in place
2008-11-25 20:15:51 [Message] doc -> Main Room: then the mcsum can also clear the magic -1000 level
2008-11-25 20:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...a break above this same MCO area should coincide with the MCSUM moving above -1000
2008-11-25 20:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind, however, that the MCSUM is at -1000, so the road higher will have a great deal of chop to it
2008-11-25 20:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLF breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line, with the components still well below the same line of neutrality
2008-11-25 20:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice how this is all taking place as the XLF breadth MCSUM is attempting to hold support at the -1500 level
2008-11-25 20:17:53 [Message] doc -> Main Room: hard to believe it traded below 9
2008-11-25 20:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will be harder still to believe when it moves below it...another bomb is going to drop
2008-11-25 20:19:12 [Message] doc -> Main Room: any ideas?
2008-11-25 20:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pick one
2008-11-25 20:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you just had one of the major money center banks get picked up
2008-11-25 20:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at BofA
2008-11-25 20:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now at 15
2008-11-25 20:20:03 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: BAC
2008-11-25 20:20:05 [Message] doc -> Main Room: i did
2008-11-25 20:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and B of A has Countrywide
2008-11-25 20:20:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: i noted that this magic reversal on Thurs started exactly as it touched 10.01
2008-11-25 20:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the financial world can't take too much more of this
2008-11-25 20:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less....C
2008-11-25 20:21:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: someone didn't want to see it go below 10 just yet
2008-11-25 20:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: run by Robert Rubin
2008-11-25 20:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the very same person in which trained all of the Economic Committee members
2008-11-25 20:21:44 [Message] doc -> Main Room: meant Friday above
2008-11-25 20:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...Friday
2008-11-25 20:21:55 [Message] jnavin -> Main Room: Rubin is ever-present
2008-11-25 20:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: C traded close to $3 and then reversed
2008-11-25 20:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about having a Treasury Secretary nominee who didn't do his job in keeping these same money center banks in check?
2008-11-25 20:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: capital preservation is now highly suggested
2008-11-25 20:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some "change"...but I digress
2008-11-25 20:23:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just caught a few lines here, dave, seems like you have super strong conviction
2008-11-25 20:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm worried...
2008-11-25 20:23:46 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: (hot off press: WSJ: FED Aid sets off rush to refinance Tues; 'most activity we've seen in year')
2008-11-25 20:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm worried that our freedoms and capitalism are being taken away from us
2008-11-25 20:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how did the auction go today?
2008-11-25 20:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any foreign takers?
2008-11-25 20:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not according to how the market closed today
2008-11-25 20:25:00 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: freedom's the 1st to go, in the name of 'state security'
2008-11-25 20:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are now fully relying on other countries to help us out of this problem
2008-11-25 20:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh....don't get me started!!
2008-11-25 20:25:20 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: once you gave them that, they can take anything else they want...
2008-11-25 20:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see what happened in Iceland today?
2008-11-25 20:25:46 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: back to TA!
2008-11-25 20:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...indeed
2008-11-25 20:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it really doesn't matter what I think anyway
2008-11-25 20:26:13 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: I am late joining. All indices I looked at need a day or two to digest gains and tip their hand
2008-11-25 20:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all that matters is what money believes
2008-11-25 20:26:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What happened Iceland?
2008-11-25 20:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed bob...back and fill
2008-11-25 20:26:39 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: protests last week, to oust govt
2008-11-25 20:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: riots...
2008-11-25 20:26:56 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: where are those $Trillions going?
2008-11-25 20:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...just where are those trillions going?
2008-11-25 20:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and are those the trillions we know about, or the ones in which we're not being told about?
2008-11-25 20:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about Citibank?
2008-11-25 20:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about GS
2008-11-25 20:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ?
2008-11-25 20:27:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, is the freedom and capitalism being taken away from us, swaying the charts, or adding to the conviction?
2008-11-25 20:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe the market is confused...and very concerned
2008-11-25 20:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is no clarity here
2008-11-25 20:28:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: never heard you speak this way before
2008-11-25 20:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...there's some clarity...the very same people who put us here are going to be given another chance to finish the job
2008-11-25 20:29:15 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: lotta itchy trigger fingers - nobody wants to miss bounce, but nobody wants to be left holding bag
2008-11-25 20:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't mind me...
2008-11-25 20:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what bag?
2008-11-25 20:29:37 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: the bag the bag holders hold
2008-11-25 20:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is there anywhere you see that things are stablizing?
2008-11-25 20:29:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, one thing that is really concerning, is that LEVERAGE, is what got us here, and now the fed, is leveraging the tarp and whatever else to cover 10x the assetts
2008-11-25 20:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bingo!
2008-11-25 20:30:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 20 billion tarp funds covering 200 billion in doody
2008-11-25 20:30:21 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: Did I miss your comments on whether the McClellan Oscillator suggested a continuation from the recent bottom?
2008-11-25 20:32:36 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: what we called recent MCO 'flags' in all indices - aren't they all bullish divergence?
2008-11-25 20:32:53 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I realize McSUMs are in the toilet, etc...
2008-11-25 20:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bob...at this point, the MCO's are suggesting a relief rally
2008-11-25 20:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are, and they can't get off the floor
2008-11-25 20:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "flag" points are only there for comparisons
2008-11-25 20:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our taking out the divergent structures last week gave us a reset
2008-11-25 20:34:07 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: not counting on the auto-bailout rally into xmas?
2008-11-25 20:34:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: my question for you is this dave, the future is ugly, and I don't see a way out without substantial time and pain, however, just want to make sure that the ridiculousness of the insane that are running the asylum don't change the charts about what the market is going to do in the here and now
2008-11-25 20:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yesa.. first it was...we MUST bail out the autos
2008-11-25 20:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now it's - we want to see a business plan AND if your plan doesn't jive with OUR agenda, you can't have the money!!!!
2008-11-25 20:34:51 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: nobody told the banks to 'come back w/a plan'
2008-11-25 20:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: GM is screwed - it would be far better for them to Chapter 11
2008-11-25 20:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to Dave - the market has continued to be very heavy with very little fresh money coming in
2008-11-25 20:36:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i agree, been shorter than a little person
2008-11-25 20:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the short covering has been very aggressive
2008-11-25 20:36:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: until fri
2008-11-25 20:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing changed
2008-11-25 20:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, this has been nothing but short covering
2008-11-25 20:37:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: agree, shorting manana if i have the gift of a gap up
2008-11-25 20:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: holiday weeks are tough...trade safe
2008-11-25 20:37:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, 4 day 5 min chart, does that move up have an impulsive count?
2008-11-25 20:37:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: looks like we need to finish a 5, or is that an abc - would love to hear your thoughts on that
2008-11-25 20:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLV data isn't showing any kind defensiveness in all of this
2008-11-25 20:38:03 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: They are creating money to keep oil in the engine. They are only trying to keep corporate structures solvent. That will benefit certain interest groups and hurt others. Probably guy on street. What does TA suggest as best road?
2008-11-25 20:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: cash continues to be the best position for now
2008-11-25 20:38:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: pretty please take a peek at the spx 5 min 4 day chart?
2008-11-25 20:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, in today's market, one can trade different things to capitalize on this
2008-11-25 20:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope
2008-11-25 20:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't have the time
2008-11-25 20:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me continue...
2008-11-25 20:39:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: drats
2008-11-25 20:39:31 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: Cash. That is where I am mostly. Seen the 3 month t-bill?
2008-11-25 20:40:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: those 3x bull and bear etf's are gods gift to the trader
2008-11-25 20:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one of the things that you will notice is that you'll see many MCSUM's now attempting to move to the upside at higher levels than that of October
2008-11-25 20:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a simple way of showing us that the selling pressure is lessening, but as deeply "oversold" as we remain, it's still going to take time to turn the direction of the prevailing trend from down to up
2008-11-25 20:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so aside from counter trend moves to relief any compression, the larger trend is still hard down
2008-11-25 20:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bob...we're talking capital preservation now...capital appreciation is when the markets are stable
2008-11-25 20:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better to get to your money, then make a lot of it and not being able to get to it
2008-11-25 20:42:21 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: Precisely.
2008-11-25 20:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take time...
2008-11-25 20:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where rate of return is secondary
2008-11-25 20:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to E-trade
2008-11-25 20:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what if they don't get their TARP funds - will the SIPC bail them out??
2008-11-25 20:43:27 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Should we be seeing descending tops in the MCOs for the foreseeable future?
2008-11-25 20:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know about you, but even though the baby commercials are cute, I would be moving my account elsewhere
2008-11-25 20:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not really Geo
2008-11-25 20:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there will be times of relief
2008-11-25 20:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there has to be
2008-11-25 20:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be honest here, I'm still trying to get a handle on things right now
2008-11-25 20:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event
2008-11-25 20:46:14 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Fib, what are your thoughts on XLI internals? Never really broke the divergent mco structure...
2008-11-25 20:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a lot of the McClellan data tonight is pretty much identical in many ways
2008-11-25 20:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me look doc
2008-11-25 20:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the bottom line right now
2008-11-25 20:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although many MCO's have moved back above their zero lines, the components that make up this tools numbers, are still below their zero line and this would mean that we are seeing corrective activity and NOT the start of anything of trend
2008-11-25 20:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCSUM's as "oversold" as they are, we're going to see whipsaw action continue for a while
2008-11-25 20:48:45 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: yippee!!
2008-11-25 20:48:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, was trin the lowest level ever yesterday?
2008-11-25 20:49:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: maybe nas, not sure, either nas or nyse
2008-11-25 20:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I probably wouldn't look for anything suggesting a tradable intermediate term bottom until sometime in the spring at the earliest
2008-11-25 20:49:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: one of those trin's looked like lowest ever
2008-11-25 20:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on to the volume oscillators
2008-11-25 20:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after giving us a probable turn signal last Thursday, the CVI's are now back above their zero lines and begging for a zero line test
2008-11-25 20:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the STVO's are now only moderately "oversold"
2008-11-25 20:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would allow for another day or two of chop to upside bias in the markets
2008-11-25 20:52:56 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: Yes
2008-11-25 20:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the VTO's solidly "oversold" and diverging
2008-11-25 20:53:40 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: What is a VTO -)
2008-11-25 20:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK....now that all of the good news is out...let's get to the big problem
2008-11-25 20:53:54 [Message] doc -> Main Room: the open 10s
2008-11-25 20:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "Volume Trend Oscillator"
2008-11-25 20:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.06
2008-11-25 20:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .79
2008-11-25 20:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "overbought"
2008-11-25 20:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it should be duly noted that the NYSE Open 10 went to "overbought" on Friday
2008-11-25 20:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...let's switch to the 3 year chart for a moment - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/TRIN.html
2008-11-25 20:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: notice what has happened in the past when the Open 10 moves close to or just below .80 over this time period
2008-11-25 20:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...it's hard to move higher when this indicator moves to "overbought"
2008-11-25 20:56:21 [Message] doc -> Main Room: some exceptions, sept 2007
2008-11-25 20:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the last time this happened was prior to the October crash
2008-11-25 20:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 9/07?
2008-11-25 20:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wasn't that THE top?
2008-11-25 20:57:28 [Message] doc -> Main Room: looks like the market went up
2008-11-25 20:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for a week
2008-11-25 20:57:38 [Message] locus -> Main Room: top was 10/07
2008-11-25 20:57:40 [Message] doc -> Main Room: for another 2-3 weeks
2008-11-25 20:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this can happen
2008-11-25 20:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the last period when this happened
2008-11-25 20:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it took a couple of weeks...but...
2008-11-25 20:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...we shouldn't be seeing these kind of "overbought" readings at the beginning of an uptrend
2008-11-25 20:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less
2008-11-25 20:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after only one day, make that one HOUR, of rally as we saw on Friday
2008-11-25 20:59:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Look the late Feb 2008 "crashlet".....close to .8
2008-11-25 20:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this, above all else, should keep everyone in check
2008-11-25 21:00:01 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: are you looking at daily for overbought readings?
2008-11-25 21:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we still haven't had the kind of purge that we should expect to finish off the current pattern sequence
2008-11-25 21:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, Open 10...daily
2008-11-25 21:00:31 [Message] doc -> Main Room: clearly, the majority of the time, .80 would be follow by price drops, just not 100% of the time
2008-11-25 21:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact
2008-11-25 21:00:48 [Message] doc -> Main Room: probably 90-95% of the time
2008-11-25 21:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything over the last 3 years, where the NYSE open 10 moved to below .85, marked a top
2008-11-25 21:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a top?
2008-11-25 21:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after a crash low?
2008-11-25 21:01:22 [Message] doc -> Main Room: yes, agreeing with you
2008-11-25 21:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how can this be?
2008-11-25 21:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just driving home a point
2008-11-25 21:01:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: just finding a rare exception here and there
2008-11-25 21:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing is perfect
2008-11-25 21:01:44 [Message] doc -> Main Room: but your point is very well taken
2008-11-25 21:01:52 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: So, 2-3 weeks would give us an Xmas rally...
2008-11-25 21:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as you can't measure completely the human element in all of this
2008-11-25 21:02:07 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: Then a big drop in time for big Hurst low.
2008-11-25 21:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you want one to happen DD, fine
2008-11-25 21:02:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dd, a christmas rally after a purge, wont get you back to where we closed today
2008-11-25 21:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be more attuned to the data
2008-11-25 21:02:38 [Message] doc -> Main Room: especially given the varied circumstances revolving around the closing action at the end of various days
2008-11-25 21:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful here folks
2008-11-25 21:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is money to be made, but you can't go all in here
2008-11-25 21:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too many questions in and out of the market right now
2008-11-25 21:03:31 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Some of my trades are over in seconds. Unreal
2008-11-25 21:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it really is
2008-11-25 21:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at Friday - 500 Dow points in one hour!
2008-11-25 21:04:06 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: waited all day for that...
2008-11-25 21:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.93
2008-11-25 21:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .91
2008-11-25 21:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: neutral - and it was .86 yesterday
2008-11-25 21:05:53 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: fyi, NYA 4628 major horizontal has held as firm support in spite of the decline http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04654246848&a=155621339
2008-11-25 21:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.51
2008-11-25 21:05:59 [Message] doc -> Main Room: it was .76 end of Sept
2008-11-25 21:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .85
2008-11-25 21:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was .82 yesterday
2008-11-25 21:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these kind of numbers SCREAM short covering
2008-11-25 21:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once this runs out...the prevailing trend will take over
2008-11-25 21:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is the main reason why I believe that this minute wave 5 is now extending and why Minor 3 down might be done as yet
2008-11-25 21:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there wasn't enough panic
2008-11-25 21:07:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, was nasdaq trin all time low yesterday?
2008-11-25 21:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although...
2008-11-25 21:07:34 [Message] jnavin -> Main Room: So, question is: where does short covering end?
2008-11-25 21:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the volatility index's are diverging which does strongly suggest a 5th of one kind or the other
2008-11-25 21:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it ends as soon as it begins
2008-11-25 21:08:02 [Message] doc -> Main Room: hiker, we haven't really tested it yet, have we?
2008-11-25 21:08:11 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: high vol narrow range for one
2008-11-25 21:08:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: there has been zero capitulation
2008-11-25 21:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know Dave
2008-11-25 21:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what I do know is that the TRIN levels of the last couple of days have been over the top frothy
2008-11-25 21:08:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: short covering ends when the next decline starts
2008-11-25 21:09:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: bus travels fastest with least amount of passengers
2008-11-25 21:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it allows the heaviness to take hold again
2008-11-25 21:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in bear markets, it's not selling that causes prices to move lower, it's the lack of buying that causes this
2008-11-25 21:09:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: majority of shorts will capitulate and exit and miss most of the move
2008-11-25 21:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and a 10% two day move can do that to a person
2008-11-25 21:10:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like the month long consolidation after oct 10
2008-11-25 21:10:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-11-25 21:10:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: seeing it all over
2008-11-25 21:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is now the third time the market has been able to shake the tree of the weak shorts
2008-11-25 21:10:30 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But in extended fifth waves there are positive divergences, no?
2008-11-25 21:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...there will be several if not many
2008-11-25 21:10:41 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: Do you see a slow grind down in the DP indicators like there was from August to Jan before the 1st Gulf War
2008-11-25 21:10:47 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: But this one is short term, I suppose
2008-11-25 21:10:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 2 1000pt 1 day rallies and a 1000 pt 2 day rally, after first 2, we made new lows, why is the third going to be any different?
2008-11-25 21:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there shouldn't be Bob because we're dealing with two different scenarios here
2008-11-25 21:11:46 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: no dave, I see lower NAS closing TRINS in '06, '07, and '08
2008-11-25 21:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Gulf War wasn't financial...we just didn't have clarity of when we were going to get our hands dirty
2008-11-25 21:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this time we are dealing with infrastructure
2008-11-25 21:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are dealing with market dynamics here
2008-11-25 21:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are dealing with the fuel that makes prices go
2008-11-25 21:13:00 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: we were dealing with fear?
2008-11-25 21:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: take away this fuel, and you misfire
2008-11-25 21:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but there's a difference between a war half a world away and being able provide shelter and food for your family
2008-11-25 21:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many have now been brought up to buy things on credit
2008-11-25 21:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: take away this component, and many don't know how to live day to day
2008-11-25 21:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even the fear of losing this component can cause many to withdrawal from the (credit) system
2008-11-25 21:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...every price pattern structure has its own personalities...it's own backgrounds
2008-11-25 21:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case, the market is trying to understand how it's going to work in the future
2008-11-25 21:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: will the government be in charge of retirement funds now that they have piece of the action?
2008-11-25 21:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or will the private sector maintain this separation?
2008-11-25 21:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know, and market doesn't know either
2008-11-25 21:17:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, what country you think is the next united states for the next 200 years
2008-11-25 21:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the future is becoming more and more murky every time they open their collective mouths right now
2008-11-25 21:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not an appropriate question because there won't be another country like ours
2008-11-25 21:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would seem that this experiment is coming to an end
2008-11-25 21:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the sad thing is...
2008-11-25 21:18:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: next super power? a u.s. wannabe
2008-11-25 21:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no one seems to care
2008-11-25 21:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: china
2008-11-25 21:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at history
2008-11-25 21:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of the great economic centers have traveled from east to west
2008-11-25 21:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Babylonia
2008-11-25 21:18:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: im moving there after i cash in on this market tank
2008-11-25 21:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Cairo
2008-11-25 21:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Rome
2008-11-25 21:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: London
2008-11-25 21:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: New York
2008-11-25 21:19:30 [Message] EldarBob -> Main Room: Tokyo, Hang Seng
2008-11-25 21:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there you go Bob
2008-11-25 21:19:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: "hey guys, i have an idea, lets fight leverage with leverage"
2008-11-25 21:20:12 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: let's get the over consumed consumer to consume more
2008-11-25 21:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you mean have the consumer buy things he doesn't need?
2008-11-25 21:20:53 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: well, for the holidays Fib
2008-11-25 21:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many gifts are returned after XMAS?
2008-11-25 21:21:01 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: "it's for the kids"...
2008-11-25 21:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of course...and their attention span is....?
2008-11-25 21:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it "feels good"
2008-11-25 21:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeps them quiet
2008-11-25 21:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..anything else?
2008-11-25 21:22:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that wave count?
2008-11-25 21:22:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 5 min 1 week
2008-11-25 21:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many times do I have to say it?
2008-11-25 21:22:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: impulsive or corrective
2008-11-25 21:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: corrective
2008-11-25 21:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wave 2
2008-11-25 21:23:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Dave
2008-11-25 21:23:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: k, we gap up tomorrow, looks like it completes a 5, that why i ask, obviously its a 5 of a C of some sort, so i know its corrective of a larger, just wanted to know if the minute count was a 5 wave or a 3 wave
2008-11-25 21:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you notice the fractal shape of the last couple of days on the 5 minute chart compared to the daily from the mid October lows?
2008-11-25 21:24:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: OMG
2008-11-25 21:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: count wise...
2008-11-25 21:24:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: YES
2008-11-25 21:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hehe
2008-11-25 21:24:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and i told lew that
2008-11-25 21:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even the blow out last hour
2008-11-25 21:24:22 [Message] dowdeva -> Main Room: What's a fractal shape and what does it mean?
2008-11-25 21:24:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: also looks like another fractal, from 2 weeks ago
2008-11-25 21:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: symmetry DD
2008-11-25 21:24:44 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: wow somebody mentioned that in TS chat today...
2008-11-25 21:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market trades in an orderly fashion
2008-11-25 21:24:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that led to an ending diagonal of sorts, which means we could have another week or so before tankage, or tank right now
2008-11-25 21:25:01 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: do you think the short covering also applies to gold as open interest in gold remains low?
2008-11-25 21:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and tends to duplicate patterns on different levels of trend
2008-11-25 21:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold...
2008-11-25 21:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold is our best barometer for the stock market
2008-11-25 21:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it continues to rise from here, it would mean that there more than enough liquidity where it can be sent to this savings "bypass"
2008-11-25 21:25:55 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: reflation better than deflation
2008-11-25 21:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...that's another way to look at it
2008-11-25 21:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have been deflating for a while now
2008-11-25 21:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some would use the analogy of a bubble bursting
2008-11-25 21:26:33 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Could be more than just liquidity if there is a "delivery" crisis of sorts
2008-11-25 21:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I like a balloon having a slow leak as it deflates
2008-11-25 21:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know Geo
2008-11-25 21:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all I know is that money is looking for a place to park and decided that gold is a good place for now
2008-11-25 21:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fundamentally speaking
2008-11-25 21:27:42 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: but do you think gold could be going up on short covering as open interest is not showing fresh buying?
2008-11-25 21:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this continued keeping of the gates of a dam open to flood the river keeps gold from declining
2008-11-25 21:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but on the other hand
2008-11-25 21:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this same savings bypass is going to be tapped to cover losing positions in other areas
2008-11-25 21:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why gold has remained within a larger trading range
2008-11-25 21:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: $700 on the low side...$925 on the high side
2008-11-25 21:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and sort of looks like a developing longer term triangle (which has been one expectation I've had for a long while now)
2008-11-25 21:29:27 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-11-25 21:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I have to take off
2008-11-25 21:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great Thanksgiving!
2008-11-25 21:30:01 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: thank you and good nite
2008-11-25 21:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll meet up again next Tuesday
2008-11-25 21:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-11-25 21:30:18 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: a "delivery crisis" will likely lead to exchanges raising margins to extraordinary levels
2008-11-25 21:30:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Happy Thansgving to all...gn
2008-11-25 21:30:38 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: which is what caused gold's crash in '80 or whenever
2008-11-25 21:31:00 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: likely to happen, as my dealer tells me it is hard to meet obligations now
2008-11-25 21:31:16 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: raising margins have killed many a rally in just the last few years
2008-11-25 21:31:22 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: coinage has been hard to place apparently
2008-11-25 21:32:01 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: exchanges can't afford any delivery fiasco's
2008-11-25 21:32:27 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: have a safe holiday all





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