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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-11-23 16:00:02 fib1618: good day
2015-11-23 16:00:05 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-11-23 16:00:29 rite01: Good great to be back
2015-11-23 16:00:50 rite01: and you?
2015-11-23 16:01:25 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking!
2015-11-23 16:02:09 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-11-23 16:04:24 fib1618: OK...then let's get SC up and get started
2015-11-23 16:05:59 fib1618: just checked the BETS...no change from the weekend: -60
2015-11-23 16:06:10 fib1618: OK...here we go
2015-11-23 16:06:44 fib1618: we start out with another small point change tonight for the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:07:13 fib1618: as we remain on a technical buy signal between the CO MCO and its component
2015-11-23 16:08:45 fib1618: looking at the NYA price action today
2015-11-23 16:08:57 fib1618: and we see that we closed below the last 3 trading days of closes
2015-11-23 16:09:24 fib1618: this would suggest that we have some sort of peak here in the chart action
2015-11-23 16:10:07 fib1618: with the likelihood of another down close on Tuesday above a 60% probability
2015-11-23 16:10:28 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:10:39 fib1618: and we are in the 4th trading day of our hesitation point
2015-11-23 16:10:46 fib1618: which looks like a "ledge" formation
2015-11-23 16:10:56 fib1618: and as Sherman McClellan likes to say
2015-11-23 16:11:05 fib1618: "ledges are formed to fall off of"
2015-11-23 16:11:27 fib1618: so our expectation from this juncture is for, at least, a zero line test for this MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:11:43 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2015-11-23 16:12:33 fib1618: and we see that the current CO MCO reading is up against a declining tops line that can be drawn connecting the mid to end of October highs
2015-11-23 16:12:44 fib1618: so a very important near term juncture here for the bulls
2015-11-23 16:13:02 fib1618: for if they don't show up here and now
2015-11-23 16:13:17 fib1618: then the sellers will again be in a good position to take control
2015-11-23 16:13:33 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:13:44 fib1618: and here too we have another small point change tonight
2015-11-23 16:14:06 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-11-23 16:14:21 fib1618: current reading here is a +2
2015-11-23 16:14:28 fib1618: so we'll call it zero line resistance
2015-11-23 16:14:53 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor here
2015-11-23 16:15:18 fib1618: and we see that we are still below this comparable declining tops line that we just measured on the CO MCO
2015-11-23 16:15:39 fib1618: which also tells us that the interest rate sensitive issues remain a bit weaker than the common stocks
2015-11-23 16:15:56 fib1618: Elliott wise
2015-11-23 16:16:09 fib1618: this sure has the stench of a completed 2nd wave
2015-11-23 16:16:51 fib1618: so the buyers need to be on guard for one of those hard down moves that accompany 3rd wave structures
2015-11-23 16:16:59 fib1618: for the shorts
2015-11-23 16:17:24 fib1618: we now have a stop and reverse at today's intraday highs
2015-11-23 16:18:24 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NYA with the standard "trinity of EMA's" (20/50/200)
2015-11-23 16:18:52 fib1618: and we see that we didn't even have enough of a thrust last week to fully snapback to the 200 day EMA
2015-11-23 16:19:18 fib1618: and that's not a good thing on a technical basis for this broad market indicator
2015-11-23 16:19:37 fib1618: with both the 20 and 50 EMA's just below current levels
2015-11-23 16:19:52 fib1618: a high degree of momentum will now be needed to break below both of these areas of support
2015-11-23 16:20:09 fib1618: which...we usually see during a 3rd wave sequence
2015-11-23 16:20:34 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:20:48 fib1618: and it continues to find a way to move higher in spite of this same loss in momentum in the NYSE
2015-11-23 16:21:05 fib1618: closing today with a reading of +13
2015-11-23 16:21:28 fib1618: we do have a bullish crossover as well with the components
2015-11-23 16:21:40 fib1618: but the 5% Trend still remains below its zero line
2015-11-23 16:21:51 fib1618: which indicates corrective activity at the current time
2015-11-23 16:22:09 fib1618: we also had an outside range day today
2015-11-23 16:22:25 fib1618: which would indicate a lower close on Tuesday for the NASDAQ Composite Index
2015-11-23 16:23:08 fib1618: looking at the daily volume bars on the price chart for both the NYA and COMPQ
2015-11-23 16:23:25 fib1618: and it would appear that we're getting our lighter volume a bit early this week
2015-11-23 16:23:50 fib1618: but on a bullish note
2015-11-23 16:24:04 fib1618: the COMPQ itself remains in a bullish configuration at this time
2015-11-23 16:24:13 fib1618: so this index would be hard to pick a short
2015-11-23 16:24:42 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor here
2015-11-23 16:25:00 fib1618: and we note that the declining tops line for the NASDAQ breadth MCO comes in at around the +25 level
2015-11-23 16:25:29 fib1618: so we have two areas of resistance to overcome in order to make last weeks reflex rally turn into something more important
2015-11-23 16:25:56 fib1618: outside range day as well with the NDX
2015-11-23 16:26:14 fib1618: as we closed below Friday's intraday lows as well
2015-11-23 16:26:29 fib1618: this is a highly negative event for the near term
2015-11-23 16:26:37 fib1618: and suggests a down close on Tuesday
2015-11-23 16:26:38 fib1618: if not an important top formation for the price action
2015-11-23 16:27:09 fib1618: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:27:36 fib1618: and we first see that we continued to find technical resistance at the zero line
2015-11-23 16:27:49 fib1618: closing today with a -12
2015-11-23 16:28:10 fib1618: but still its above last week's one day hesitation pull back which keeps hope alive for the buyers
2015-11-23 16:28:32 fib1618: negative crossover now on the NDX MCO components
2015-11-23 16:28:40 fib1618: though both remain above their zero line
2015-11-23 16:29:04 fib1618: this would indicate that the 19 and 39 day EMA's of the NDX A/D line continue to move higher at the current time
2015-11-23 16:29:27 fib1618: but we're now losing any upside momentum that we had last week
2015-11-23 16:29:39 fib1618: and if we don't see an booster shot by the buyers on Tuesday
2015-11-23 16:30:05 fib1618: both of the components are again in jeopardy of moving down and through their zero lines in quick order
2015-11-23 16:30:27 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:31:01 fib1618: and here we see one of our obligatory snapbacks in progress toward the zero line after moving back above it last week
2015-11-23 16:31:24 fib1618: both the SPX MCO components remains positive though
2015-11-23 16:32:04 fib1618: and with the SPX closing above Thursday's and Friday's settlement prices
2015-11-23 16:32:27 fib1618: this would allow for another day of firmness in the pattern
2015-11-23 16:32:41 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:32:59 fib1618: and here we have another ledge structure in work
2015-11-23 16:33:29 fib1618: so we should have some sort of resolution to this by tomorrow it would seem
2015-11-23 16:33:38 rite01: ??  I have SPX today's price closing below Friday's close
2015-11-23 16:34:00 fib1618: you're right
2015-11-23 16:34:06 fib1618: I meant Wednesday and Thursday
2015-11-23 16:34:17 fib1618: thanks for watching my back
2015-11-23 16:34:34 rite01: just checking didn't don't want to miss anything
2015-11-23 16:34:55 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:35:23 fib1618: and here we see that, unlike the SPX breadth MCO, we remain below the zero line
2015-11-23 16:35:38 fib1618: after being turned away from it with Friday's -2 reading
2015-11-23 16:35:56 fib1618: and this translates to the OEX breadth MCSUM now starting to slip to the downside
2015-11-23 16:36:42 fib1618: and with it
2015-11-23 16:37:03 fib1618: the SPX is going to have a hard time "keeping up appearances" that it's in a bullish mode if the top 100 issues that make up the index are already starting to weaken
2015-11-23 16:37:45 fib1618: same with the Dow breadth MCO and MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:38:37 fib1618: though any near term slippery slope might extend to all of this week given that the MCO components remain above their zero lines
2015-11-23 16:39:06 fib1618: but with both on a crossover sell
2015-11-23 16:41:07 fib1618: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:41:25 fib1618: and we see that it continues to climb nicely
2015-11-23 16:41:40 fib1618: which is a positive for the market overall
2015-11-23 16:41:59 fib1618: with today's reading of +34
2015-11-23 16:42:12 fib1618: it remains just below the highs of -35 at the end of October
2015-11-23 16:42:21 fib1618: but better yet
2015-11-23 16:42:30 fib1618: remains above the +25 level
2015-11-23 16:43:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:43:40 fib1618: and we can also see that it's beginning to move into its gap resistance area
2015-11-23 16:44:17 fib1618: and with our being in the 4th day above the MCO zero line
2015-11-23 16:44:27 fib1618: if this were a fishhook structure in the MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:44:38 fib1618: it will need to turn around on Tuesday to the downside
2015-11-23 16:44:58 fib1618: or it's very likely that we'll fill this same MCSUM gap resistance zone
2015-11-23 16:44:59 fib1618: and with it
2015-11-23 16:45:03 thespookyone: starting to get desired rotation? That just doesn't look bearish to me...
2015-11-23 16:45:09 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO will need to move to new highs
2015-11-23 16:45:17 fib1618: that could be too
2015-11-23 16:45:41 fib1618: especially when the broader market NYA Composite continues to have its issues of moving above its zero line
2015-11-23 16:46:04 fib1618: but if the SML is doing the same thing
2015-11-23 16:46:10 fib1618: well..let's see
2015-11-23 16:46:24 fib1618: and it continues to rise as well
2015-11-23 16:46:40 fib1618: as it broke above natural resistance at the +25 level
2015-11-23 16:47:25 fib1618: but unlike the MID MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:47:38 fib1618: we have yet to enter the SML breadth MCSUM gap resistance area
2015-11-23 16:47:45 fib1618: we're there
2015-11-23 16:47:49 fib1618: but haven't moved into it
2015-11-23 16:47:57 fib1618: so if there's going to be resistance
2015-11-23 16:48:04 fib1618: this is the place to turn and move south
2015-11-23 16:48:33 fib1618: one of those classic fishhooks
2015-11-23 16:48:53 fib1618: which would then lead to our moving down and through the SML breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-11-23 16:49:14 fib1618: current SML breadth MCO resistance is at the +41 level
2015-11-23 16:49:21 fib1618: so we'll watch for that as well
2015-11-23 16:49:39 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:50:42 fib1618: as the TM breadth MCSUM is continuing to hold on to zero line support
2015-11-23 16:51:17 fib1618: while the TM MCO components moved to a crossover buy signal
2015-11-23 16:51:20 fib1618: so...
2015-11-23 16:51:37 fib1618: the market seems to be holding its cards close to its chest for the time being
2015-11-23 16:51:46 fib1618: with some areas showing a loss of upside momentum
2015-11-23 16:52:18 fib1618: while others seem to be attracting capital in spite of the large caps being shunned
2015-11-23 16:52:34 fib1618: tough call based on breadth only
2015-11-23 16:52:48 fib1618: though today's BETS continues to tip the scales toward a bearish resolution
2015-11-23 16:52:56 fib1618: let's see what the volume side has to say
2015-11-23 16:53:33 fib1618: the CO NYSE volume MCO continues to meander sideways just below its zero line
2015-11-23 16:53:52 fib1618: and this continues to allow the CO NYSE volume MCSUM to drip, drip, drip lower
2015-11-23 16:54:12 fib1618: both the components here also remain below their zero lines as well
2015-11-23 16:54:25 fib1618: and without positive volume
2015-11-23 16:54:29 fib1618: prices are just going to sag...and maybe collapse
2015-11-23 16:54:57 fib1618: same thing with the NYSE Composite volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:55:23 fib1618: as it moved slightly lower today after moving sideways for the last 2-3 days
2015-11-23 16:55:34 fib1618: in fact
2015-11-23 16:55:56 fib1618: we're seeing zero line resistance across the board here with the NYSE Composite MCO, Components and the MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:56:12 fib1618: so the bulls are not going to be able to do much more from here unless this changes
2015-11-23 16:57:02 fib1618: small point changes on both the CO and Composite MCO's also indicate tremendous tension on the tape right now
2015-11-23 16:57:16 fib1618: and this is going to uncoil hard and fast once it's triggered
2015-11-23 16:57:36 fib1618: small point change as well with the NASDAQ volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:58:06 fib1618: though here we remain ABOVE the zero line in the MCO, Components and NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:58:29 fib1618: still..no evidence at all of any texture in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:58:56 fib1618: so some sort of back and fill is going to take place in order to correct this anomaly
2015-11-23 16:59:32 fib1618: hard reversal back below the zero line today in the NDX volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:59:45 fib1618: moving from a +17 to a -8
2015-11-23 17:00:12 fib1618: negative crossover as well in the components
2015-11-23 17:00:25 fib1618: though both do remain above their zero lines
2015-11-23 17:00:44 fib1618: interesting to note
2015-11-23 17:01:09 fib1618: that the NDX volume MCSUM was also turned away from the +500 line today
2015-11-23 17:01:40 fib1618: so any downside follow through on Tuesday would set the stage for this MCSUM to move toward its next level of potential support at the +250 level
2015-11-23 17:02:11 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO is also having its issues of staying above its zero line
2015-11-23 17:02:59 fib1618: though, here too, the SPX volume MCO components remain above their zero line
2015-11-23 17:03:25 fib1618: OK...bad news for the buyers
2015-11-23 17:03:36 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO did accelerate lower today
2015-11-23 17:03:45 fib1618: with the OEX breadth MCO already below its zero line
2015-11-23 17:04:16 fib1618: this maybe too much weakness for the market averages to overcome since the majority of the weighing in the majors comes with the top 100 issues
2015-11-23 17:04:49 fib1618: seeing the same thing in the Dow volume MCO and MCSUM
2015-11-23 17:04:58 fib1618: seems like we're impulsing lower here
2015-11-23 17:05:43 fib1618: though we may not get too much collateral damage near term due to the fact that both the OEX and Dow volume MCSUM's remain nicely above their zero lines
2015-11-23 17:06:09 fib1618: so that "should" cushion any downside resumption that we may see over the next couple of days
2015-11-23 17:06:34 fib1618: moving to the MID volume MCO
2015-11-23 17:06:43 fib1618: and here it also continues to move higher
2015-11-23 17:06:55 fib1618: but here it's not keeping up with its breadth cousin
2015-11-23 17:07:10 fib1618: and this would be a warning that once money flow ceases
2015-11-23 17:07:33 fib1618: that a bit of a vacuum will need to be filled before again another set up will likely be seen
2015-11-23 17:07:56 fib1618: note also when taking ruler to monitor
2015-11-23 17:08:30 fib1618: that the MID volume MCO closed right at the declining tops line connecting the mid October/beginning of November highs
2015-11-23 17:08:43 fib1618: so this is as good a place as any to see a reversal as well
2015-11-23 17:09:11 fib1618: we also see volume weakness with the SML volume MCO
2015-11-23 17:09:21 fib1618: as compared with its breadth cousin
2015-11-23 17:09:24 fib1618: and without volume
2015-11-23 17:09:51 fib1618: prices will have a hard time in keeping things moving in the direction is which money is moving
2015-11-23 17:11:24 fib1618: so the 11/10 intraday reversal highs remain the key to this whole pattern structure
2015-11-23 17:11:49 fib1618: as it will take stronger volume plurality to break above this point
2015-11-23 17:12:00 fib1618: and with the OEX and Dow breaking down
2015-11-23 17:12:17 fib1618: it doesn't seem likely that the bulls are going to be able to belly up here and make it happen
2015-11-23 17:12:44 fib1618: and a small point change with the TM volume MCO
2015-11-23 17:13:16 fib1618: as the MCO, Components, and TM volume MCSUM are also showing some zero line indecision
2015-11-23 17:13:19 fib1618: so...
2015-11-23 17:13:30 fib1618: we're one day closer to something big taking place
2015-11-23 17:13:45 fib1618: don't know what the trigger might be
2015-11-23 17:13:59 fib1618: or whether there will be one of which one can point too
2015-11-23 17:14:33 fib1618: but there's a definite vibe here that we're going to see prices sag lower for a day or two...maybe more
2015-11-23 17:14:40 fib1618: moving to the OBV data
2015-11-23 17:15:19 fib1618: we'll call the CVI's and VTO's neutral
2015-11-23 17:15:27 fib1618: with the STVO's now minimally "overbought"
2015-11-23 17:15:59 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.31
2015-11-23 17:16:08 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.11
2015-11-23 17:16:16 fib1618: so back to being technically "oversold"
2015-11-23 17:16:30 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.18
2015-11-23 17:16:41 fib1618: Open 10 at .97
2015-11-23 17:16:53 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.17
2015-11-23 17:17:04 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.02
2015-11-23 17:17:06 fib1618: so...
2015-11-23 17:17:14 fib1618: pretty much a wasted day of digestion
2015-11-23 17:17:30 fib1618: as the market players are looking to see who's going to take the brass ring and run with it
2015-11-23 17:17:59 fib1618: the BETS continues to indicate a "hostile environment"
2015-11-23 17:18:19 fib1618: while last week's advance has the smell of a classic bear market rally...short and swift with little in the way of buyer imbalance
2015-11-23 17:18:42 fib1618: and on the back of the news of our "cleaning up undesirables" in France and Belgium
2015-11-23 17:18:54 fib1618: as a trader
2015-11-23 17:19:09 fib1618: one can use today's intraday highs as a stop on any short position taken
2015-11-23 17:19:18 fib1618: and if this area is violated
2015-11-23 17:19:35 fib1618: we'll have to watch what happens with the large caps..especially the OEX
2015-11-23 17:19:48 fib1618: if it suddenly becomes attractive
2015-11-23 17:19:59 fib1618: then we'll be able to move above the early November highs
2015-11-23 17:20:06 fib1618: if not...
2015-11-23 17:20:23 fib1618: the rest of the week may turn out to be one of a very tight trading range as we move into the Thanksgiving day holiday on Thursday
2015-11-23 17:20:49 fib1618: anything else?
2015-11-23 17:21:02 thespookyone: thx
2015-11-23 17:21:17 rite01: Did Sherman McClellan understand this as much as you do now?  All the possible interplay, nuisances and chart patterns ?
2015-11-23 17:21:45 fib1618: he's the creator...I always yield to the creator! [smile]
2015-11-23 17:21:57 fib1618: in this business
2015-11-23 17:22:03 fib1618: you're only as good as your last call
2015-11-23 17:22:16 fib1618: and as I mentioned over the weekend
2015-11-23 17:22:39 fib1618: I haven't been on the right side for 2 weeks now
2015-11-23 17:22:52 rite01: Understand! FYI I've had the toughest last two weeks in a while!
2015-11-23 17:23:07 fib1618: everyone has
2015-11-23 17:23:25 fib1618: even in profitable trades
2015-11-23 17:23:29 fib1618: it hasn't been easy
2015-11-23 17:23:58 fib1618: I've been standing aside now for the last 3 days
2015-11-23 17:24:13 rite01: good move
2015-11-23 17:26:06 rite01: I checked with Fidelity today regarding GTC and stop losses... They haven't made decision yet but did mention the Pacific exchange was not going to cancel them
2015-11-23 17:26:37 fib1618: well..I'm sure that no one wants a problem on executions
2015-11-23 17:26:51 fib1618: we'll see what happens in January
2015-11-23 17:27:11 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-11-23 17:27:14 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-11-23 17:27:16 rite01: Not here
2015-11-23 17:27:29 fib1618: remember that we have another chat on Tuesday
2015-11-23 17:27:40 rite01: see you guys tomorrow
2015-11-23 17:27:41 fib1618: so we'll do this all again in less than 23 hours
2015-11-23 17:27:52 fib1618: everyone have a great trading day on Tuesday
2015-11-23 17:27:53 fib1618: good night


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