All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-11-23 16:00:02 fib1618: good day
2015-11-23 16:00:05 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-11-23 16:00:29 rite01: Good great to be back
2015-11-23 16:00:50 rite01: and you?
2015-11-23 16:01:25 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking!
2015-11-23 16:02:09 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-11-23 16:04:24 fib1618: OK...then let's get SC up and get started
2015-11-23 16:05:59 fib1618: just checked the change from the weekend: -60
2015-11-23 16:06:10 fib1618: we go
2015-11-23 16:06:44 fib1618: we start out with another small point change tonight for the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:07:13 fib1618: as we remain on a technical buy signal between the CO MCO and its component
2015-11-23 16:08:45 fib1618: looking at the NYA price action today
2015-11-23 16:08:57 fib1618: and we see that we closed below the last 3 trading days of closes
2015-11-23 16:09:24 fib1618: this would suggest that we have some sort of peak here in the chart action
2015-11-23 16:10:07 fib1618: with the likelihood of another down close on Tuesday above a 60% probability
2015-11-23 16:10:28 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:10:39 fib1618: and we are in the 4th trading day of our hesitation point
2015-11-23 16:10:46 fib1618: which looks like a "ledge" formation
2015-11-23 16:10:56 fib1618: and as Sherman McClellan likes to say
2015-11-23 16:11:05 fib1618: "ledges are formed to fall off of"
2015-11-23 16:11:27 fib1618: so our expectation from this juncture is for, at least, a zero line test for this MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:11:43 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2015-11-23 16:12:33 fib1618: and we see that the current CO MCO reading is up against a declining tops line that can be drawn connecting the mid to end of October highs
2015-11-23 16:12:44 fib1618: so a very important near term juncture here for the bulls
2015-11-23 16:13:02 fib1618: for if they don't show up here and now
2015-11-23 16:13:17 fib1618: then the sellers will again be in a good position to take control
2015-11-23 16:13:33 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:13:44 fib1618: and here too we have another small point change tonight
2015-11-23 16:14:06 fib1618: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-11-23 16:14:21 fib1618: current reading here is a +2
2015-11-23 16:14:28 fib1618: so we'll call it zero line resistance
2015-11-23 16:14:53 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor here
2015-11-23 16:15:18 fib1618: and we see that we are still below this comparable declining tops line that we just measured on the CO MCO
2015-11-23 16:15:39 fib1618: which also tells us that the interest rate sensitive issues remain a bit weaker than the common stocks
2015-11-23 16:15:56 fib1618: Elliott wise
2015-11-23 16:16:09 fib1618: this sure has the stench of a completed 2nd wave
2015-11-23 16:16:51 fib1618: so the buyers need to be on guard for one of those hard down moves that accompany 3rd wave structures
2015-11-23 16:16:59 fib1618: for the shorts
2015-11-23 16:17:24 fib1618: we now have a stop and reverse at today's intraday highs
2015-11-23 16:18:24 fib1618: looking at the price chart of the NYA with the standard "trinity of EMA's" (20/50/200)
2015-11-23 16:18:52 fib1618: and we see that we didn't even have enough of a thrust last week to fully snapback to the 200 day EMA
2015-11-23 16:19:18 fib1618: and that's not a good thing on a technical basis for this broad market indicator
2015-11-23 16:19:37 fib1618: with both the 20 and 50 EMA's just below current levels
2015-11-23 16:19:52 fib1618: a high degree of momentum will now be needed to break below both of these areas of support
2015-11-23 16:20:09 fib1618: which...we usually see during a 3rd wave sequence
2015-11-23 16:20:34 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:20:48 fib1618: and it continues to find a way to move higher in spite of this same loss in momentum in the NYSE
2015-11-23 16:21:05 fib1618: closing today with a reading of +13
2015-11-23 16:21:28 fib1618: we do have a bullish crossover as well with the components
2015-11-23 16:21:40 fib1618: but the 5% Trend still remains below its zero line
2015-11-23 16:21:51 fib1618: which indicates corrective activity at the current time
2015-11-23 16:22:09 fib1618: we also had an outside range day today
2015-11-23 16:22:25 fib1618: which would indicate a lower close on Tuesday for the NASDAQ Composite Index
2015-11-23 16:23:08 fib1618: looking at the daily volume bars on the price chart for both the NYA and COMPQ
2015-11-23 16:23:25 fib1618: and it would appear that we're getting our lighter volume a bit early this week
2015-11-23 16:23:50 fib1618: but on a bullish note
2015-11-23 16:24:04 fib1618: the COMPQ itself remains in a bullish configuration at this time
2015-11-23 16:24:13 fib1618: so this index would be hard to pick a short
2015-11-23 16:24:42 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor here
2015-11-23 16:25:00 fib1618: and we note that the declining tops line for the NASDAQ breadth MCO comes in at around the +25 level
2015-11-23 16:25:29 fib1618: so we have two areas of resistance to overcome in order to make last weeks reflex rally turn into something more important
2015-11-23 16:25:56 fib1618: outside range day as well with the NDX
2015-11-23 16:26:14 fib1618: as we closed below Friday's intraday lows as well
2015-11-23 16:26:29 fib1618: this is a highly negative event for the near term
2015-11-23 16:26:37 fib1618: and suggests a down close on Tuesday
2015-11-23 16:26:38 fib1618: if not an important top formation for the price action
2015-11-23 16:27:09 fib1618: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:27:36 fib1618: and we first see that we continued to find technical resistance at the zero line
2015-11-23 16:27:49 fib1618: closing today with a -12
2015-11-23 16:28:10 fib1618: but still its above last week's one day hesitation pull back which keeps hope alive for the buyers
2015-11-23 16:28:32 fib1618: negative crossover now on the NDX MCO components
2015-11-23 16:28:40 fib1618: though both remain above their zero line
2015-11-23 16:29:04 fib1618: this would indicate that the 19 and 39 day EMA's of the NDX A/D line continue to move higher at the current time
2015-11-23 16:29:27 fib1618: but we're now losing any upside momentum that we had last week
2015-11-23 16:29:39 fib1618: and if we don't see an booster shot by the buyers on Tuesday
2015-11-23 16:30:05 fib1618: both of the components are again in jeopardy of moving down and through their zero lines in quick order
2015-11-23 16:30:27 fib1618: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:31:01 fib1618: and here we see one of our obligatory snapbacks in progress toward the zero line after moving back above it last week
2015-11-23 16:31:24 fib1618: both the SPX MCO components remains positive though
2015-11-23 16:32:04 fib1618: and with the SPX closing above Thursday's and Friday's settlement prices
2015-11-23 16:32:27 fib1618: this would allow for another day of firmness in the pattern
2015-11-23 16:32:41 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:32:59 fib1618: and here we have another ledge structure in work
2015-11-23 16:33:29 fib1618: so we should have some sort of resolution to this by tomorrow it would seem
2015-11-23 16:33:38 rite01: ??  I have SPX today's price closing below Friday's close
2015-11-23 16:34:00 fib1618: you're right
2015-11-23 16:34:06 fib1618: I meant Wednesday and Thursday
2015-11-23 16:34:17 fib1618: thanks for watching my back
2015-11-23 16:34:34 rite01: just checking didn't don't want to miss anything
2015-11-23 16:34:55 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:35:23 fib1618: and here we see that, unlike the SPX breadth MCO, we remain below the zero line
2015-11-23 16:35:38 fib1618: after being turned away from it with Friday's -2 reading
2015-11-23 16:35:56 fib1618: and this translates to the OEX breadth MCSUM now starting to slip to the downside
2015-11-23 16:36:42 fib1618: and with it
2015-11-23 16:37:03 fib1618: the SPX is going to have a hard time "keeping up appearances" that it's in a bullish mode if the top 100 issues that make up the index are already starting to weaken
2015-11-23 16:37:45 fib1618: same with the Dow breadth MCO and MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:38:37 fib1618: though any near term slippery slope might extend to all of this week given that the MCO components remain above their zero lines
2015-11-23 16:39:06 fib1618: but with both on a crossover sell
2015-11-23 16:41:07 fib1618: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:41:25 fib1618: and we see that it continues to climb nicely
2015-11-23 16:41:40 fib1618: which is a positive for the market overall
2015-11-23 16:41:59 fib1618: with today's reading of +34
2015-11-23 16:42:12 fib1618: it remains just below the highs of -35 at the end of October
2015-11-23 16:42:21 fib1618: but better yet
2015-11-23 16:42:30 fib1618: remains above the +25 level
2015-11-23 16:43:06 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:43:40 fib1618: and we can also see that it's beginning to move into its gap resistance area
2015-11-23 16:44:17 fib1618: and with our being in the 4th day above the MCO zero line
2015-11-23 16:44:27 fib1618: if this were a fishhook structure in the MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:44:38 fib1618: it will need to turn around on Tuesday to the downside
2015-11-23 16:44:58 fib1618: or it's very likely that we'll fill this same MCSUM gap resistance zone
2015-11-23 16:44:59 fib1618: and with it
2015-11-23 16:45:03 thespookyone: starting to get desired rotation? That just doesn't look bearish to me...
2015-11-23 16:45:09 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO will need to move to new highs
2015-11-23 16:45:17 fib1618: that could be too
2015-11-23 16:45:41 fib1618: especially when the broader market NYA Composite continues to have its issues of moving above its zero line
2015-11-23 16:46:04 fib1618: but if the SML is doing the same thing
2015-11-23 16:46:10 fib1618: well..let's see
2015-11-23 16:46:24 fib1618: and it continues to rise as well
2015-11-23 16:46:40 fib1618: as it broke above natural resistance at the +25 level
2015-11-23 16:47:25 fib1618: but unlike the MID MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:47:38 fib1618: we have yet to enter the SML breadth MCSUM gap resistance area
2015-11-23 16:47:45 fib1618: we're there
2015-11-23 16:47:49 fib1618: but haven't moved into it
2015-11-23 16:47:57 fib1618: so if there's going to be resistance
2015-11-23 16:48:04 fib1618: this is the place to turn and move south
2015-11-23 16:48:33 fib1618: one of those classic fishhooks
2015-11-23 16:48:53 fib1618: which would then lead to our moving down and through the SML breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-11-23 16:49:14 fib1618: current SML breadth MCO resistance is at the +41 level
2015-11-23 16:49:21 fib1618: so we'll watch for that as well
2015-11-23 16:49:39 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2015-11-23 16:50:42 fib1618: as the TM breadth MCSUM is continuing to hold on to zero line support
2015-11-23 16:51:17 fib1618: while the TM MCO components moved to a crossover buy signal
2015-11-23 16:51:20 fib1618: so...
2015-11-23 16:51:37 fib1618: the market seems to be holding its cards close to its chest for the time being
2015-11-23 16:51:46 fib1618: with some areas showing a loss of upside momentum
2015-11-23 16:52:18 fib1618: while others seem to be attracting capital in spite of the large caps being shunned
2015-11-23 16:52:34 fib1618: tough call based on breadth only
2015-11-23 16:52:48 fib1618: though today's BETS continues to tip the scales toward a bearish resolution
2015-11-23 16:52:56 fib1618: let's see what the volume side has to say
2015-11-23 16:53:33 fib1618: the CO NYSE volume MCO continues to meander sideways just below its zero line
2015-11-23 16:53:52 fib1618: and this continues to allow the CO NYSE volume MCSUM to drip, drip, drip lower
2015-11-23 16:54:12 fib1618: both the components here also remain below their zero lines as well
2015-11-23 16:54:25 fib1618: and without positive volume
2015-11-23 16:54:29 fib1618: prices are just going to sag...and maybe collapse
2015-11-23 16:54:57 fib1618: same thing with the NYSE Composite volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:55:23 fib1618: as it moved slightly lower today after moving sideways for the last 2-3 days
2015-11-23 16:55:34 fib1618: in fact
2015-11-23 16:55:56 fib1618: we're seeing zero line resistance across the board here with the NYSE Composite MCO, Components and the MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:56:12 fib1618: so the bulls are not going to be able to do much more from here unless this changes
2015-11-23 16:57:02 fib1618: small point changes on both the CO and Composite MCO's also indicate tremendous tension on the tape right now
2015-11-23 16:57:16 fib1618: and this is going to uncoil hard and fast once it's triggered
2015-11-23 16:57:36 fib1618: small point change as well with the NASDAQ volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:58:06 fib1618: though here we remain ABOVE the zero line in the MCO, Components and NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2015-11-23 16:58:29 fib1618: evidence at all of any texture in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:58:56 fib1618: so some sort of back and fill is going to take place in order to correct this anomaly
2015-11-23 16:59:32 fib1618: hard reversal back below the zero line today in the NDX volume MCO
2015-11-23 16:59:45 fib1618: moving from a +17 to a -8
2015-11-23 17:00:12 fib1618: negative crossover as well in the components
2015-11-23 17:00:25 fib1618: though both do remain above their zero lines
2015-11-23 17:00:44 fib1618: interesting to note
2015-11-23 17:01:09 fib1618: that the NDX volume MCSUM was also turned away from the +500 line today
2015-11-23 17:01:40 fib1618: so any downside follow through on Tuesday would set the stage for this MCSUM to move toward its next level of potential support at the +250 level
2015-11-23 17:02:11 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO is also having its issues of staying above its zero line
2015-11-23 17:02:59 fib1618: though, here too, the SPX volume MCO components remain above their zero line
2015-11-23 17:03:25 fib1618: OK...bad news for the buyers
2015-11-23 17:03:36 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO did accelerate lower today
2015-11-23 17:03:45 fib1618: with the OEX breadth MCO already below its zero line
2015-11-23 17:04:16 fib1618: this maybe too much weakness for the market averages to overcome since the majority of the weighing in the majors comes with the top 100 issues
2015-11-23 17:04:49 fib1618: seeing the same thing in the Dow volume MCO and MCSUM
2015-11-23 17:04:58 fib1618: seems like we're impulsing lower here
2015-11-23 17:05:43 fib1618: though we may not get too much collateral damage near term due to the fact that both the OEX and Dow volume MCSUM's remain nicely above their zero lines
2015-11-23 17:06:09 fib1618: so that "should" cushion any downside resumption that we may see over the next couple of days
2015-11-23 17:06:34 fib1618: moving to the MID volume MCO
2015-11-23 17:06:43 fib1618: and here it also continues to move higher
2015-11-23 17:06:55 fib1618: but here it's not keeping up with its breadth cousin
2015-11-23 17:07:10 fib1618: and this would be a warning that once money flow ceases
2015-11-23 17:07:33 fib1618: that a bit of a vacuum will need to be filled before again another set up will likely be seen
2015-11-23 17:07:56 fib1618: note also when taking ruler to monitor
2015-11-23 17:08:30 fib1618: that the MID volume MCO closed right at the declining tops line connecting the mid October/beginning of November highs
2015-11-23 17:08:43 fib1618: so this is as good a place as any to see a reversal as well
2015-11-23 17:09:11 fib1618: we also see volume weakness with the SML volume MCO
2015-11-23 17:09:21 fib1618: as compared with its breadth cousin
2015-11-23 17:09:24 fib1618: and without volume
2015-11-23 17:09:51 fib1618: prices will have a hard time in keeping things moving in the direction is which money is moving
2015-11-23 17:11:24 fib1618: so the 11/10 intraday reversal highs remain the key to this whole pattern structure
2015-11-23 17:11:49 fib1618: as it will take stronger volume plurality to break above this point
2015-11-23 17:12:00 fib1618: and with the OEX and Dow breaking down
2015-11-23 17:12:17 fib1618: it doesn't seem likely that the bulls are going to be able to belly up here and make it happen
2015-11-23 17:12:44 fib1618: and a small point change with the TM volume MCO
2015-11-23 17:13:16 fib1618: as the MCO, Components, and TM volume MCSUM are also showing some zero line indecision
2015-11-23 17:13:19 fib1618: so...
2015-11-23 17:13:30 fib1618: we're one day closer to something big taking place
2015-11-23 17:13:45 fib1618: don't know what the trigger might be
2015-11-23 17:13:59 fib1618: or whether there will be one of which one can point too
2015-11-23 17:14:33 fib1618: but there's a definite vibe here that we're going to see prices sag lower for a day or two...maybe more
2015-11-23 17:14:40 fib1618: moving to the OBV data
2015-11-23 17:15:19 fib1618: we'll call the CVI's and VTO's neutral
2015-11-23 17:15:27 fib1618: with the STVO's now minimally "overbought"
2015-11-23 17:15:59 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.31
2015-11-23 17:16:08 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.11
2015-11-23 17:16:16 fib1618: so back to being technically "oversold"
2015-11-23 17:16:30 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.18
2015-11-23 17:16:41 fib1618: Open 10 at .97
2015-11-23 17:16:53 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.17
2015-11-23 17:17:04 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.02
2015-11-23 17:17:06 fib1618: so...
2015-11-23 17:17:14 fib1618: pretty much a wasted day of digestion
2015-11-23 17:17:30 fib1618: as the market players are looking to see who's going to take the brass ring and run with it
2015-11-23 17:17:59 fib1618: the BETS continues to indicate a "hostile environment"
2015-11-23 17:18:19 fib1618: while last week's advance has the smell of a classic bear market rally...short and swift with little in the way of buyer imbalance
2015-11-23 17:18:42 fib1618: and on the back of the news of our "cleaning up undesirables" in France and Belgium
2015-11-23 17:18:54 fib1618: as a trader
2015-11-23 17:19:09 fib1618: one can use today's intraday highs as a stop on any short position taken
2015-11-23 17:19:18 fib1618: and if this area is violated
2015-11-23 17:19:35 fib1618: we'll have to watch what happens with the large caps..especially the OEX
2015-11-23 17:19:48 fib1618: if it suddenly becomes attractive
2015-11-23 17:19:59 fib1618: then we'll be able to move above the early November highs
2015-11-23 17:20:06 fib1618: if not...
2015-11-23 17:20:23 fib1618: the rest of the week may turn out to be one of a very tight trading range as we move into the Thanksgiving day holiday on Thursday
2015-11-23 17:20:49 fib1618: anything else?
2015-11-23 17:21:02 thespookyone: thx
2015-11-23 17:21:17 rite01: Did Sherman McClellan understand this as much as you do now?  All the possible interplay, nuisances and chart patterns ?
2015-11-23 17:21:45 fib1618: he's the creator...I always yield to the creator! [smile]
2015-11-23 17:21:57 fib1618: in this business
2015-11-23 17:22:03 fib1618: you're only as good as your last call
2015-11-23 17:22:16 fib1618: and as I mentioned over the weekend
2015-11-23 17:22:39 fib1618: I haven't been on the right side for 2 weeks now
2015-11-23 17:22:52 rite01: Understand! FYI I've had the toughest last two weeks in a while!
2015-11-23 17:23:07 fib1618: everyone has
2015-11-23 17:23:25 fib1618: even in profitable trades
2015-11-23 17:23:29 fib1618: it hasn't been easy
2015-11-23 17:23:58 fib1618: I've been standing aside now for the last 3 days
2015-11-23 17:24:13 rite01: good move
2015-11-23 17:26:06 rite01: I checked with Fidelity today regarding GTC and stop losses... They haven't made decision yet but did mention the Pacific exchange was not going to cancel them
2015-11-23 17:26:37 fib1618: well..I'm sure that no one wants a problem on executions
2015-11-23 17:26:51 fib1618: we'll see what happens in January
2015-11-23 17:27:11 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-11-23 17:27:14 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-11-23 17:27:16 rite01: Not here
2015-11-23 17:27:29 fib1618: remember that we have another chat on Tuesday
2015-11-23 17:27:40 rite01: see you guys tomorrow
2015-11-23 17:27:41 fib1618: so we'll do this all again in less than 23 hours
2015-11-23 17:27:52 fib1618: everyone have a great trading day on Tuesday
2015-11-23 17:27:53 fib1618: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch