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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-11-23 15:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-11-23 15:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-11-23 16:00:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thanks.
2010-11-23 16:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: were you able to catch any of the decline today Lew?
2010-11-23 16:01:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Yes, came in short
2010-11-23 16:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...that's right you were looking for a gap down...nice job!
2010-11-23 16:01:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, your stuff told me to
2010-11-23 16:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did you know that Korea was going to break out in war?
2010-11-23 16:01:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2010-11-23 16:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-23 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2010-11-23 16:02:35 [Message] orange -> Chat: sure, over at TT there is a lot of talk about sentiment and put/call ratios
2010-11-23 16:02:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm with you on news-for the record
2010-11-23 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..I saw Don's post
2010-11-23 16:03:30 [Message] orange -> Chat: do you pay much attention to those ratios?
2010-11-23 16:03:43 [Message] orange -> Chat: or, do you find watching the internals gives you the full picture
2010-11-23 16:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to pay attention to everything...
2010-11-23 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals are the primary engine of the markets ability to either move higher or lower
2010-11-23 16:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sentiment issues can be for various reasons
2010-11-23 16:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: insider selling has also been a big topic of late
2010-11-23 16:04:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: insiders never helped me much
2010-11-23 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Tonny mentioned the OEX P/C ratio last night
2010-11-23 16:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my initial response was that being after November expiration, there may have been some allocation insurance involved here
2010-11-23 16:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I saw the post last night
2010-11-23 16:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I then reviewed the chart itself
2010-11-23 16:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite dramatic
2010-11-23 16:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't know if I agree with the premise
2010-11-23 16:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first of all...OEX options can be traded by anyone - "dumb or smart"
2010-11-23 16:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I used to trade OEX and XMI options all the time
2010-11-23 16:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: options...in and by themselves...were developed as a way to insure a portfolio against something unseen
2010-11-23 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now..I don't want to come up with a some conspiracy that someone knew about Korea yesterday
2010-11-23 16:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or that there would be further rumors of a Spanish problem
2010-11-23 16:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the use of the P/C ratio
2010-11-23 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it used to be a great indicator back in the 80's and 90's when using a 10 day sma
2010-11-23 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thing that befuddled me with the discussion
2010-11-23 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when you get to levels such as above 1.00, this is an indication of a bottom when bull market conditions are present
2010-11-23 16:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like having high TRIN values
2010-11-23 16:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to think that the "smart money" is betting on a correction, or even a "crash like" event, is a bit of a stretch under current conditions
2010-11-23 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2010-11-23 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: numbers that we saw yesterday generally led to a bottom of significance
2010-11-23 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the link at DP - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/PC.html
2010-11-23 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look closely at the chart shown
2010-11-23 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the 10 day running average of OEX options
2010-11-23 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will note that the times in which we've been at 1.50 or so have actually showed more bottoming action than topping action
2010-11-23 16:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure..it's not perfect
2010-11-23 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the difference here is with the A/D line itself
2010-11-23 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if we superimposed it on the chart and looked the times in which we did approach 1.50 with the A/D line above its 200 day EMA (or 1% Trend)
2010-11-23 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes a little clearer on the implications of such a high degree of put volume
2010-11-23 16:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...do I look at this stuff?
2010-11-23 16:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure we chat about it in the room from time to time
2010-11-23 16:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about with divergences yesterday
2010-11-23 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the context and its application is all important as to what should be the "expectation" of such events
2010-11-23 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you have an opinion?
2010-11-23 16:15:27 [Message] orange -> Chat: I think they are useful, when back tested
2010-11-23 16:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can be
2010-11-23 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but every market segment is unique in its character
2010-11-23 16:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it works...sometimes it doesn't
2010-11-23 16:16:10 [Message] orange -> Chat: and when compared appropriately, sometimes you can get an idea if people are hedging or speculating
2010-11-23 16:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very true
2010-11-23 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus...these days...there are so many allocation tools to work with that sometimes it can blur the usefulness of these same indicators
2010-11-23 16:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like any good technician
2010-11-23 16:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we respect any and all indicators that can help us in getting the upper edge of a trade
2010-11-23 16:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...in the case of the OEX P/C ratio
2010-11-23 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will mean more IF we don't pull bull divergence as we expect on the MCO
2010-11-23 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break below the lows of last week, then this information becomes more important in our bag of tricks
2010-11-23 16:19:03 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What if we go up from here?
2010-11-23 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now...I would think that having high numbers like this, especially if after having very high premiums, may only be a abrupt emotional shift by these same traders reacting to their environment
2010-11-23 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what if we go up from here?
2010-11-23 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't understand
2010-11-23 16:20:18 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I.e. no MCO bull divergence
2010-11-23 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we go up from current levels we will probably have slim divergence if at all (guessing here until I see the data)
2010-11-23 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before today's decline
2010-11-23 16:21:03 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Will it then be significant for further downside later on?
2010-11-23 16:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation has continued to be for either a trading range or triangle to form
2010-11-23 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the last weeks lows are broken on the MCO
2010-11-23 16:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that will give us downside objectives to play with
2010-11-23 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus it will reset the pattern to where another test will be needed before the market can TREND higher
2010-11-23 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2010-11-23 16:22:18 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes
2010-11-23 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must show a lessening of selling pressure before the buyers can build on that lack of drive by the other side
2010-11-23 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like football (American or soccer)
2010-11-23 16:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is the offense
2010-11-23 16:23:27 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-23 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other the defense
2010-11-23 16:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the offense will drive the ball as far as they can until the defense is able to tire the run or intercept
2010-11-23 16:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the defense will play offense
2010-11-23 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a back and forth situation
2010-11-23 16:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I hope you get the idea here
2010-11-23 16:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else on your minds?
2010-11-23 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get the breadth charts up and we'll get started
2010-11-23 16:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back to or towards its zero line, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today
2010-11-23 16:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this gave us a gap down and through the +500 level on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-11-23 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next objective now is the +250 level
2010-11-23 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember as the MCSUM continues to unwind to the downside
2010-11-23 16:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will become easier and easier for the bears to "drive the ball" in their direction
2010-11-23 16:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now...the ball happens to be in bull territory
2010-11-23 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's still plenty of work to do by the bears before they can say they "have control"
2010-11-23 16:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% Trend is back below its zero line
2010-11-23 16:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% now just above its zero line
2010-11-23 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last Tuesday
2010-11-23 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens here after a sharp decline like we had last week
2010-11-23 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have a snapback, or reflex, back to the component zero line
2010-11-23 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the 5% Trend joins the 10% below its zero line
2010-11-23 16:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is from there were we have our first chance of a tradable bottom
2010-11-23 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the deeper the components go, however, the more time that will be needed before the bulls can actually have a chance of keeping the ball and making a drive or their own
2010-11-23 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the 5% component still above its zero line
2010-11-23 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are still correcting
2010-11-23 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-11-23 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price chart
2010-11-23 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed today just a fraction above last weeks close
2010-11-23 16:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we don't have any divergence as yet to talk about
2010-11-23 16:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-11-23 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do see that there is a lessening of selling pressure with the move down today
2010-11-23 16:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will usually occur, without the use of clear divergence, when the price pattern is tracing out a triangle
2010-11-23 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should know what we should expect as soon as tomorrow
2010-11-23 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: triangle...consolidation...or will we have enough to break down
2010-11-23 16:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 7400 NYA remains the line in the sand short term
2010-11-23 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break below this level
2010-11-23 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO moving to new lows
2010-11-23 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will then open the door to move to the next level of prior consolidation...NYA 7200
2010-11-23 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite data and it's basically telling the same story
2010-11-23 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although there is a bearish indications here with the way the composite RA NYSE breadth MCO was turned away from the -25 level
2010-11-23 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about before
2010-11-23 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this level is akin to that of the -250 level on the MCSUM
2010-11-23 16:35:08 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Just checked the closing price from last week. The low close was 7472. So we did actually close below today
2010-11-23 16:35:17 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: So divergence should be there
2010-11-23 16:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2010-11-23 16:35:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm flat-except for gold-I think we bounce very soon
2010-11-23 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look again at the chart...
2010-11-23 16:35:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: Interesting that you can see that a print of 7400 for NYA is a sell signal on the P & F charts too. Two different techniques. Same critical level.
2010-11-23 16:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...it's close
2010-11-23 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will go with what you have
2010-11-23 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..so we have slight divergence here
2010-11-23 16:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not very clean
2010-11-23 16:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...as a chartist
2010-11-23 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 7400 level was the last area of consolidation - a plateau - before we found support and moved higher
2010-11-23 16:37:02 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Computers should pick it up
2010-11-23 16:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always good to have different angles suggesting the same thing
2010-11-23 16:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment...I want to see a chart
2010-11-23 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow....by 2 points
2010-11-23 16:38:43 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes
2010-11-23 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by fractions on the OEX
2010-11-23 16:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not even close on the MID and SML - not even in the ballpark
2010-11-23 16:39:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: You want to see something akin to that, check out the low last Tues for OEX and today's low. Exactly the same. The OEX boys were on their toes today.
2010-11-23 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: smells like a triangle
2010-11-23 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by fractions...yes
2010-11-23 16:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX and Dow did not move to lower lows
2010-11-23 16:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tricky market here
2010-11-23 16:40:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: you are talking close, i was talking lows.
2010-11-23 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...?
2010-11-23 16:40:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: unless I'm mistaken
2010-11-23 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right on the nosy
2010-11-23 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's bizarre
2010-11-23 16:41:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: 528.93 bingo
2010-11-23 16:41:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: coincidence LOL
2010-11-23 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it's turning into an interesting day
2010-11-23 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea...coincidence
2010-11-23 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the PPT set the floor
2010-11-23 16:42:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: starting to prefer trading against machines-they are sensible
2010-11-23 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event...we do have a minimal divergent structure in place now
2010-11-23 16:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a clean one
2010-11-23 16:42:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: sloppy
2010-11-23 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll see how things are handled over the next couple of days
2010-11-23 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about yesterday
2010-11-23 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume will probably dry up around noon time tomorrow as everyone takes the rest of the week off
2010-11-23 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I wouldn't expect too much here
2010-11-23 16:43:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: Working with the idea that last Tuesday was the Hurst 5wk low and today-tomor morning is the window for the 6/7 day low which has recently been running about 5 trading days.
2010-11-23 16:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (with that said...watch...we'll have a 300 point Dow day tomorrow)
2010-11-23 16:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be your test
2010-11-23 16:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I like the premise
2010-11-23 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the broader market is hanging in there like it is
2010-11-23 16:45:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: with the idea being that you can scalp or trade long just above last weeks lows with stops just below, risking little with the hope that we can move up a bit.
2010-11-23 16:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sounds like a plan to me
2010-11-23 16:45:39 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: That is the trade I took just after the close
2010-11-23 16:45:45 [Message] orange -> Chat: ditto =D
2010-11-23 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would give it a .50 cushion
2010-11-23 16:46:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes, definitely
2010-11-23 16:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great day
2010-11-23 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-23 16:46:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: lol
2010-11-23 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (kidding)
2010-11-23 16:46:17 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-23 16:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-11-23 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved lower today
2010-11-23 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this generated a gap below the +250 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2010-11-23 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...looking at the close up...that's not actually true
2010-11-23 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we had a extension gap to the downside regardless
2010-11-23 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a crossover sell now on the components
2010-11-23 16:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like we figured
2010-11-23 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we're down below the +250 level on the MCSUM
2010-11-23 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are able to have the opportunity to grab the power
2010-11-23 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would watch this index closely for any further breakdown
2010-11-23 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we did do today was to fill the price gap of last Wednesday
2010-11-23 16:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a mid range close
2010-11-23 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're not actually trending here...I would ignore it for now
2010-11-23 16:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probable support comes in at 2450
2010-11-23 16:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO and here we see a textbook snapback to the zero line
2010-11-23 16:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the moved away from this area today
2010-11-23 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the NASDAQ composite
2010-11-23 16:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX components remain in a corrective configuration
2010-11-23 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% suggesting a bounce near term off its zero line
2010-11-23 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the bearish side
2010-11-23 16:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM looks to have gone below the consolidation levels seen in October today
2010-11-23 16:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not a cinch that the 10% is going to bounce here
2010-11-23 16:53:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: One other comment we could make on the NY Mcsum is that at +541 and the mco at -47, we need a fairly decent up day tomorrow to snap the mco back up close to -10 to -20 area to have a chance to bottom around the +500 escape velocity threshold. Otherwise, the NYSI will likely go below +500
2010-11-23 16:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would expect it too
2010-11-23 16:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have been above the zero line for so long
2010-11-23 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reasonable expectation is for the MCO to stay below its zero line for a while
2010-11-23 16:54:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: You would expect it to drop below +500?
2010-11-23 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2010-11-23 16:54:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: not unreasonable
2010-11-23 16:54:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: esp looking at the commons
2010-11-23 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other reason being is that we were turned away below the zero line
2010-11-23 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the strength was still there
2010-11-23 16:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would have snapped back closer, or above, the zero line itself
2010-11-23 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we didn't do that
2010-11-23 16:55:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: and here I thought we were adding texture!
2010-11-23 16:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that there is a lot of selling here
2010-11-23 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: emotional or otherwise
2010-11-23 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are
2010-11-23 16:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but texture in the MCO can continue to build while its below the zero line
2010-11-23 16:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2010-11-23 16:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM will continue to move lower
2010-11-23 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the markets goal at all times to find balance
2010-11-23 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: revert to its mean
2010-11-23 16:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has been our expectation that we should see this occur over the last two months
2010-11-23 16:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now its in the process of making things balanced
2010-11-23 16:57:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: true
2010-11-23 16:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be excited here because the lower the MCSUM gets to or towards its zero line
2010-11-23 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger the chance that we'll then able to trend higher again without the sluggishness we saw towards the end of the recent advance
2010-11-23 16:58:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: or, if it's in the cards, get a summation failure and a bigger correction
2010-11-23 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for prices to trend when you have extremes
2010-11-23 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I certainly wouldn't want to see a failure here
2010-11-23 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because that would suggest that we're going to break the June lows
2010-11-23 16:59:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: From a Hurst point of view, we have to be on guard for this none the less.
2010-11-23 17:00:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I think it is still a possibility even if we make a double top next week
2010-11-23 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we break those lows...there's really no telling what the implications would be given the daily structure from the March 2009 lows
2010-11-23 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a double top?
2010-11-23 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you mean a test of the highs?
2010-11-23 17:00:39 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: If we manage to go back to the 1230 level
2010-11-23 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's off the table for now
2010-11-23 17:00:54 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes sorry
2010-11-23 17:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best chance of...don't be sorry!
2010-11-23 17:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me explain
2010-11-23 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market only able to provide a technical snapback to or towards its MCO zero line
2010-11-23 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without being able to move above the zero line again
2010-11-23 17:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that we're going to see continuing negative money flow for another couple of weeks
2010-11-23 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCO now giving a sell today
2010-11-23 17:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM breaking below the +250 level
2010-11-23 17:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that we will continue to see choppy behavior
2010-11-23 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now with a downside bias
2010-11-23 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the redeeming factor here lies with the small and mid caps
2010-11-23 17:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words...the market is now out of sync
2010-11-23 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we're out of sync
2010-11-23 17:04:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: but the open 10s are in perfect sync
2010-11-23 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be that much harder for the bulls to mount up anything to the upside
2010-11-23 17:04:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: finally
2010-11-23 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like it was difficult for the bears to mount anything to the downside for the last 2 months
2010-11-23 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: power is shifting
2010-11-23 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...right NOW...its neutral
2010-11-23 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it a "Sybil" market...more than one personality
2010-11-23 17:05:12 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK. I see. Thanks!
2010-11-23 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds then do not favor a test of the highs now
2010-11-23 17:05:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Makes sense
2010-11-23 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could change next week
2010-11-23 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds are much less now
2010-11-23 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll put it another way
2010-11-23 17:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the markets do rally back up their recent highs now
2010-11-23 17:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be concerned for the longer term
2010-11-23 17:06:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: DITTO
2010-11-23 17:06:43 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: That is what I am...
2010-11-23 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we WANT the markets to digest
2010-11-23 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't want it to uncharacteristically start to "show off"
2010-11-23 17:07:31 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-23 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...I don't see anything different than what we talked about last Tuesday and even before that
2010-11-23 17:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making it even simpler
2010-11-23 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apply a 20 day EMA and 50 day EMA to the price charts
2010-11-23 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you will see our trading range
2010-11-23 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break above the 20 would be bullish
2010-11-23 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break below the 50 would be bearish
2010-11-23 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the internals now out of sync
2010-11-23 17:09:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: the smalls and mids are down to the 20
2010-11-23 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect the price pattern to maintain a trading range between these two EMA's
2010-11-23 17:09:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: the big caps are at the 50
2010-11-23 17:09:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: the techs are in between
2010-11-23 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...you can see the interplay here
2010-11-23 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and which markets are stronger and which ones are weaker
2010-11-23 17:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes knowing too much can be dangerous
2010-11-23 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apply simple EMA's can tell you a whole lot
2010-11-23 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we look at the markets under a microscope
2010-11-23 17:11:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/34f9osg
2010-11-23 17:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always fascinating how a moving average can have such insight, isn't it?
2010-11-23 17:11:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: this is with SMA's but you get the idea
2010-11-23 17:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they work
2010-11-23 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just happen to like the EMA's because of their math
2010-11-23 17:12:32 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: RUT is above its 20 EMA
2010-11-23 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting how no one is looking at the SOX
2010-11-23 17:12:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: me too, just using the Stock Charts default for speed
2010-11-23 17:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for that
2010-11-23 17:13:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure
2010-11-23 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Tonny
2010-11-23 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what we were talking about yesterday
2010-11-23 17:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a rare time where we see the small caps showing such a high level of buoyancy in the face of "bad news"
2010-11-23 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only way this can happen is that liquidity levels are more than ample to hold these boats up
2010-11-23 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what I mean when I say that if the market were to decline here it won't be because of a lack of liquidity
2010-11-23 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be more because of emotion
2010-11-23 17:14:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: Tonny, I went long a portion of RUT via UWM near the lows today, for the play we talked about above. Have a stop, just in case
2010-11-23 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and emotion is usually driven by news events
2010-11-23 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sometimes it will work...and sometimes it won't
2010-11-23 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's what stops are for
2010-11-23 17:15:39 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Thanks. I trade the Emini. I put the stop below the low of last week
2010-11-23 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our objective is to buy at wholesale and sell at retail
2010-11-23 17:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...you guys don't need me anymore
2010-11-23 17:16:10 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-23 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seriously
2010-11-23 17:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's good to see some good trading here
2010-11-23 17:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a reason for the trade
2010-11-23 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...let's hope it's successful outcome
2010-11-23 17:17:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: TF is a point away from last Friday's close. I has more cushion since it was up yesterday.
2010-11-23 17:17:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: thx good luck to all.
2010-11-23 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember that money is flowing out of the market right now
2010-11-23 17:17:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the trade looks right to me, but I'd hit and run that for sure
2010-11-23 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so play longs close to the chest
2010-11-23 17:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...not a time to get married at all
2010-11-23 17:18:07 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I plan to take profit as soon as the close tomorrow if given the opportunity
2010-11-23 17:18:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes, plan to take profits quick and consider putting the profits to the short side
2010-11-23 17:18:23 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: My plan as well
2010-11-23 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the market tell you when to close
2010-11-23 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a plan
2010-11-23 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just keep a watch
2010-11-23 17:18:45 [Message] orange -> Chat: I think it's intriguing how you come to conclusions here that are similar to my own with such a different perspective
2010-11-23 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the idea
2010-11-23 17:19:04 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What is your perspective?
2010-11-23 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are all here to beat the market
2010-11-23 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how we get there is important...especially if different angles point to the same outcome
2010-11-23 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: brb
2010-11-23 17:19:45 [Message] orange -> Chat: I post on TT occasionally with some stuff I look at
2010-11-23 17:19:59 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK, I will check
2010-11-23 17:20:39 [Message] orange -> Chat: Usually I look for a list of certain 'things' that occur which give clue to the short term market behavior
2010-11-23 17:21:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: FYI, this period here through the first 3 days of Dec are part of the best 20 days for the RUT on a seasonal basis.
2010-11-23 17:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (famous last words)
2010-11-23 17:22:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: Another reason to try RUT long when oversold and perhaps short SPX when overbought for the chop with downside bias.
2010-11-23 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on the rest of the breadth charts
2010-11-23 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the OEX and Dow 10% components moved to lower lows today while the breadth MCO's did not
2010-11-23 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that the selling in both the OEX and Dow are now over extended
2010-11-23 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and due for a more pronounced bounce once things change direction
2010-11-23 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the MID and SML look to be tracing out an triangle now
2010-11-23 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM's continue to unwind from their "overbought" levels
2010-11-23 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth components are also showing the 10% below zero, with the 5% still above its zero line
2010-11-23 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...right at 00
2010-11-23 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2010-11-23 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow CVI is now "oversold"
2010-11-23 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest are mixed
2010-11-23 17:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and NDX STVO's are now neutral
2010-11-23 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are also a bit on the mixed side
2010-11-23 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 3.16
2010-11-23 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good for a bottom
2010-11-23 17:29:09 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Fib, Do you just check for overbought and oversold on these volume osc?
2010-11-23 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2010-11-23 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when they are important...if you wish I can review them after the TRIN's
2010-11-23 17:29:49 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I ask because I am not sure I understand how they are computed
2010-11-23 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.69
2010-11-23 17:30:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Sure thanks
2010-11-23 17:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.15
2010-11-23 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 2.07
2010-11-23 17:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2010-11-23 17:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-11-23 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can close a little more below today's levels on Wednesday
2010-11-23 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have enough of a divergent structure to work with on the NYA
2010-11-23 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the market looks to be "washed out" on a near term basis and could reverse sharply
2010-11-23 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who really knows with the holiday
2010-11-23 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hate it when the markets are out of sync
2010-11-23 17:32:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: low volume will make dropping tough
2010-11-23 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line...hit and run...watch your breadth plurality
2010-11-23 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...part of the holiday week
2010-11-23 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go to the volume McClellan's
2010-11-23 17:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term sell now on the CO
2010-11-23 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: composite as well
2010-11-23 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep in mind that with the MCSUM's are in positive territory
2010-11-23 17:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes this more of a "hold" signal
2010-11-23 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you have a specific question Tonny?
2010-11-23 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2010-11-23 17:35:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I am just unsure how the volume oscillators are calculated and what they mean.
2010-11-23 17:35:26 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I mean, I basically only read the graph and see the lines for overbought and oversold
2010-11-23 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're talking the CVI...STVO and VTO?
2010-11-23 17:35:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes
2010-11-23 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahh...OK..one sec
2010-11-23 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the "ah oh"
2010-11-23 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a look at the OEX volume MCO
2010-11-23 17:36:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: But I don't think I properly understand the indicators
2010-11-23 17:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower low there
2010-11-23 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a reset there
2010-11-23 17:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably part of the OEX p/c numbers
2010-11-23 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to watch that
2010-11-23 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...the volume oscillators
2010-11-23 17:37:12 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Reset?
2010-11-23 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...on the OEX volume MCO
2010-11-23 17:38:14 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What does reset mean? I see the chart. Does not look good
2010-11-23 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume oscillators are based on Granville's On Balance Volume indicator
2010-11-23 17:39:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: old Joe
2010-11-23 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe Carl has a proprietary algorithm to it
2010-11-23 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2010-11-23 17:39:57 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Would it be fair to think of them as OBV with different lengths?
2010-11-23 17:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-11-23 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of a lack of time
2010-11-23 17:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me find the link on it
2010-11-23 17:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know that the STVO is a 5 day MA of the CVI
2010-11-23 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking...
2010-11-23 17:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here it is - http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/OBV_Indicators.html
2010-11-23 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can re-examine the tools next time
2010-11-23 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wanted to take a moment to look at the ETF's tonight
2010-11-23 17:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2010-11-23 17:42:52 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Thanks. I will give it a look
2010-11-23 17:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the banks are very weak here
2010-11-23 17:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: KBE
2010-11-23 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XBI is looking stable here
2010-11-23 17:44:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/2vs79bb
2010-11-23 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: emerging markets are also looking weak here
2010-11-23 17:44:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think that it is worrisome that the banks have closed below the Oct 19 lows and the Fed speak lows.
2010-11-23 17:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a problem...no doubt
2010-11-23 17:45:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: This means that the banks have peaked most likely for this Hurst 40wk cycle
2010-11-23 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the one sector in which we mentioned specifically last Tuesday where we might be in for a good short there
2010-11-23 17:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLY remains strong
2010-11-23 17:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: energy as well
2010-11-23 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "dirty" energy that is..."clean" is weak
2010-11-23 17:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch natural gas here
2010-11-23 17:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like its bottomed - UNG
2010-11-23 17:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: housing is looking weak in here - XHB and ITB
2010-11-23 17:49:21 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: BKX actually made the lowest close since August
2010-11-23 17:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: metals and mining still look good
2010-11-23 17:50:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: Yes Tonny, this is why the SPX, OEX, DOW, NYA are at the 50 ma while rut, mid, tech are above and SOX is in a league of its own
2010-11-23 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...how many people bought the retail sector back in September?
2010-11-23 17:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: show of hands please
2010-11-23 17:50:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: retail or amazon?
2010-11-23 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: retail
2010-11-23 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we talked about this
2010-11-23 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that retail stocks generally are bought in September for the holiday run
2010-11-23 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/2evhcg7
2010-11-23 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 20% and bucking the current correction
2010-11-23 17:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which probably means they will start to sell off on Friday
2010-11-23 17:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...this is usually a good play every year
2010-11-23 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been in with my play account since 38
2010-11-23 17:53:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx!
2010-11-23 17:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the semi's keep moving higher
2010-11-23 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as are internet stocks
2010-11-23 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes sense since you can purchase online and have it shipped free in most cases
2010-11-23 17:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold and silver are close to another buy signal here
2010-11-23 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with what's going of late
2010-11-23 17:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might want to look at uranium stocks
2010-11-23 17:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: telecoms are still hanging in there
2010-11-23 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's really a mixed bag here
2010-11-23 17:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many keeping a watchful eye on the banks
2010-11-23 17:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while many other sectors remain quite bullish
2010-11-23 17:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2010-11-23 17:57:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: who gets the nod for tomor and Friday?
2010-11-23 17:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...I don't know
2010-11-23 17:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically and seasonally we should be firm here
2010-11-23 17:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with what's going on in Korea...who knows near term
2010-11-23 17:58:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Friday looks up to me on super light volume
2010-11-23 17:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually is...which can move the markets dramatically
2010-11-23 17:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm taking time off
2010-11-23 17:59:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: ES is back trading in the pre-open consolidation
2010-11-23 17:59:25 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Hope it is the bulls otherwise the FTSE has a McSum failure here as it is at +1.9 tonight!
2010-11-23 17:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SAM!
2010-11-23 17:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are you?
2010-11-23 17:59:44 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Good morning
2010-11-23 17:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what are you doing awake?
2010-11-23 18:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I thought Tonny was the only one who stayed up past midnight!
2010-11-23 18:00:11 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Little boy has a cold - coughing all night
2010-11-23 18:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...I hope he feels better
2010-11-23 18:00:33 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: So do I, so do I
2010-11-23 18:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weather isn't helping I'm sure
2010-11-23 18:00:44 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Cold & dull
2010-11-23 18:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sounds like London in winter
2010-11-23 18:01:09 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Hope the markets give us cheer tomorrow
2010-11-23 18:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FTSE had component changes last week - I think it's pretty much absorbed now
2010-11-23 18:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't have the McClellan data here..
2010-11-23 18:01:54 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Sam, where can I see the MCSUM and MCO of the FTSE? I have looked around without luck
2010-11-23 18:02:22 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Ftse jumped below 50 day DMA today
2010-11-23 18:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...thanks for joining in...I have to go, but if anyone has a question about the London markets, maybe Sam will have a few minutes to respond
2010-11-23 18:03:13 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I have the McSum and the MCO 5 & 10 % elements, if you want I could post them on the message board
2010-11-23 18:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2010-11-23 18:03:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: that would be great, thx Fib
2010-11-23 18:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wanted to thank you all for your support....your participation is highly appreciated
2010-11-23 18:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to the yanks
2010-11-23 18:03:50 [Message] orange -> Chat: thanks fib
2010-11-23 18:03:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: Happy Thanksgiving to all
2010-11-23 18:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a great Thanksgiving holiday!
2010-11-23 18:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again next Tuesday
2010-11-23 18:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-11-23 18:04:25 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Do you calculate them yourself? If so where is the best place to see the advancers and decliners for the FTSE?
2010-11-23 18:04:36 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Thanks, happy Thanksgiving, I join in with a couple of pints on Thursday!
2010-11-23 18:05:14 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Tonny, I calculate them myself. I haven't seen them published anywhere.
2010-11-23 18:05:43 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I see. Me neither. Where do you get the advance decline statistics from?
2010-11-23 18:06:54 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I have been thinking that breadth information for European markets are a lot less accessible compared to US markets. I live in Copenhagen.
2010-11-23 18:07:26 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: My software calculate them from the daily data. It can calculate the MCO, AD, McSum and I have programmed it to give me the 5% and 10% elements.
2010-11-23 18:08:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Is it the FTSE100?
2010-11-23 18:08:30 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I think the data is there but you have to do the calculations yourself for Euro markets
2010-11-23 18:09:14 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes, I just have been unable to find advance decline numbers on the internet for the European markets.
2010-11-23 18:10:19 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: But of course, if I had the EOD data for every stock I could calculate figure it out that way.
2010-11-23 18:10:46 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Is it the FTSE100 that is close to a MCSUM failure?
2010-11-23 18:10:51 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I calculate the McSum, MCO and elements for the FTSE and SPX myself. However, it is slightly different historically as I calculate these use the current company component for my calculation whereas the Stockcharts / DP use historical component listings
2010-11-23 18:10:56 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: or the broader FTSE?
2010-11-23 18:11:26 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: The FTSE 100 McSum is at +1.9 tonight.
2010-11-23 18:11:46 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Ah, is that so. I was not aware that DP and stockcharts were using historical component listings.
2010-11-23 18:12:54 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: But the futures (via the CFD cash equivalent is now up about 45 points from yesterday close (spx at 1184 now)
2010-11-23 18:13:44 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes, lets hope we have an up day tomorrow. I am long the ES from 1176.75
2010-11-23 18:14:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Do you calculate MCO and MCSUM on the broader FTSE market as well?
2010-11-23 18:17:37 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I mostly look at the FTSE 100 as that is what I mainly trade but I also have FTSE 350, LSE, NYSE,AMEX SPX, and others built in.
2010-11-23 18:20:06 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: In fact, if I create a portfolio of stocks, then I can get the Mcsum & MCO data for it (the FTSE100 is after all only a portfolio of stocks). This then allows me to create these tools for various sectors that dominate the FTSE 100 such as banks and miners
2010-11-23 18:20:53 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: This does mean that I need to keep these updated for component changes (as I do with the SPX)
2010-11-23 18:21:55 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Do you trade your local market or only the US markets?
2010-11-23 18:22:00 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Sounds similar to what Decision Point does for the US market. Have you ever thought about putting your charts out to the public internet
2010-11-23 18:22:16 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: For the moment I only trade US markets
2010-11-23 18:22:43 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: But I have traded the DAX and the FTSE100 futures and Swedish and Danish stocks before
2010-11-23 18:23:48 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I might put the charts on TW and see what people think of them.
2010-11-23 18:23:56 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: TW?
2010-11-23 18:24:14 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Here (Technical Watch)
2010-11-23 18:24:21 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-23 18:24:25 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Sure
2010-11-23 18:25:13 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Do you think the signals from the breadth charts are work better in the UK than in the US markets?
2010-11-23 18:25:52 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I am thinking that the breadth info is readily available for US markets whereas for European markets it is not so easy to obtain.
2010-11-23 18:26:25 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: So I was thinking maybe there was more edge to using the MCO and MCSUM in European markets
2010-11-23 18:26:39 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Just a thought
2010-11-23 18:27:23 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: I think it is obtainable. You only need to know if a share closed up or down to get the McClellan data. Having volume helps further.
2010-11-23 18:27:55 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: True
2010-11-23 18:29:20 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Well, thanks for chatting and I hope your son gets better. Cheers
2010-11-23 18:29:26 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: For the FTSE, it is a bit muddled as about half the transactions in London are via CFD's and also the way the LSE allows brokers to account for volume (can be recorded three days late).This messes things up a bit.
2010-11-23 18:29:45 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Thanks Have a good night.
2010-11-23 18:29:52 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: All the best.

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