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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-22 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-11-22 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-22 16:00:26 [Message] EricD -> Chat: good thanks
2011-11-22 16:00:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thanks
2011-11-22 16:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-11-22 16:02:37 [Message] darris -> Chat: real quick, the NYSE advancing breadth 10 day MA has dropped to 40.6% tonight
2011-11-22 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning...?
2011-11-22 16:02:55 [Message] darris -> Chat: the commons only 10 day is at 37.7%
2011-11-22 16:03:05 [Message] darris -> Chat: meaning the Zweig lower limit is close by
2011-11-22 16:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do these low ratios discount the previous thrusts?
2011-11-22 16:04:23 [Message] darris -> Chat: I do not have a good answer, but it is certainly not good, IMO
2011-11-22 16:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or could these low ratios have and equal and opposite forecast to what we had last month?
2011-11-22 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a balancing act?
2011-11-22 16:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-11-22 16:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...there isn't a good answer here
2011-11-22 16:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and see if we can sort this mess out
2011-11-22 16:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued lower today
2011-11-22 16:06:23 [Message] darris -> Chat: Pure price is still certainly in good shape relative to 1075, but if these consecutive down days in Europe and here with the spx do not stop, the recent water fall declines certainly have to be assessed
2011-11-22 16:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2011-11-22 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-22 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm my "Spidey Sense" is tingling again
2011-11-22 16:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last time that happened was...?
2011-11-22 16:07:24 [Message] darris -> Chat: I do not remember this
2011-11-22 16:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I made mention of this at the end of July
2011-11-22 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't like the rhythm here
2011-11-22 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the lack of it
2011-11-22 16:07:57 [Message] darris -> Chat: Well I do not like the timing of that feeling either !!! LOL
2011-11-22 16:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me either
2011-11-22 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting quite concerned here, in fact
2011-11-22 16:08:25 [Message] darris -> Chat: Just wanted to mention this. Thanks
2011-11-22 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which may be a way to know that we're close to some sort of bottom here
2011-11-22 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2011-11-22 16:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more info we have as a group...the better
2011-11-22 16:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll share my concerns as we move along
2011-11-22 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as any good news
2011-11-22 16:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so back to the CO data
2011-11-22 16:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we now have a -98 reading on the breadth MCO
2011-11-22 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see by the lack of texture from last week that the selling has been rather relentless in scope
2011-11-22 16:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the lack of being able to slow the rate of descent today is a large flashing caution
2011-11-22 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although this was somewhat expected with our chat yesterday
2011-11-22 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls now have to really do a lot of work tomorrow
2011-11-22 16:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we might be in for a harder shake out to the lows of early October
2011-11-22 16:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically speaking
2011-11-22 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should begin to see some sort of relief rally come in at any time
2011-11-22 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the way we have overly stretched the rubber band here
2011-11-22 16:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same reflex will likely be quite dramatic
2011-11-22 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-11-22 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are now at the -75 level
2011-11-22 16:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not exactly deeply "oversold" as the common stocks are
2011-11-22 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but some of this, and probably most of this, is defensive buying into the interest sensitive issues
2011-11-22 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is keeping the composite from digging even deeper
2011-11-22 16:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM is now back to its +500 level
2011-11-22 16:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given how "oversold" we are here on the MCO
2011-11-22 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have no problems at all moving down and through this same level tomorrow
2011-11-22 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be akin to the space shuttle hitting the upper atmosphere on re-entry
2011-11-22 16:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard and bumpy will be the ride
2011-11-22 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it doesn't look that we're quite out of the woods as yet as to the existing selling pressure
2011-11-22 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically speaking here
2011-11-22 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for this MCO is for a snapback towards the -50 level tomorrow
2011-11-22 16:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the pressure keeps up here
2011-11-22 16:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it won't look like Friday will be a day of relief here
2011-11-22 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...as an aside
2011-11-22 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have NEVER seen so many ads by so many retailers as there are this year
2011-11-22 16:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-22 16:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Macy's has THREE ads running for Friday
2011-11-22 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unheard of!
2011-11-22 16:18:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: our malls were PACKED last week...
2011-11-22 16:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some stores are opening at midnight on Thursday night...Toys R Us at 9:00!
2011-11-22 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: advertising on such social platforms as Facebook are off the chart
2011-11-22 16:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-22 16:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are already lines at many Best Buys around the country!
2011-11-22 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they are selling a 42" HD TV at $200.00!
2011-11-22 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if people don't show up this weekend
2011-11-22 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not going to sit well with the market
2011-11-22 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my gut here is telling me that the majority of shopping this year will take place online
2011-11-22 16:20:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: mine sure will, LOL
2011-11-22 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I can't describe how slow it is generally right now
2011-11-22 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: beyond super slow
2011-11-22 16:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's at a crawl
2011-11-22 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if the public is really pulling back this year
2011-11-22 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, again, I'm in Sacramento
2011-11-22 16:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where 40% of the working force work for the state
2011-11-22 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I do have many arms in many places both domestically and globally as well
2011-11-22 16:22:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it seems odd to see the malls packed here in Cleveland-but it is what it is, I guess
2011-11-22 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm not getting a good feel here
2011-11-22 16:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2011-11-22 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many retailers are having PRE Thanksgiving sells this week
2011-11-22 16:22:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-11-22 16:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole week has become a way for retailers to dump inventory
2011-11-22 16:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they are scared to death
2011-11-22 16:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see it in their advertising
2011-11-22 16:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see it in their employees
2011-11-22 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully I'm wrong here
2011-11-22 16:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm just sharing things from the trenches
2011-11-22 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even AMEX is having a nationwide Small Business Saturday event
2011-11-22 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they are offering a $25.00 statement credit on any one purchase from a participating retailer when you spend over $25.00
2011-11-22 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good if you have an AMEX, I guess
2011-11-22 16:25:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: love it
2011-11-22 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then you have to "register"!
2011-11-22 16:25:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: online-easy
2011-11-22 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know....
2011-11-22 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it is
2011-11-22 16:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the idea is for people to shop at the local level
2011-11-22 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NOT online
2011-11-22 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2011-11-22 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will give the credit even if you buy online
2011-11-22 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're even promoting the businesses as well on their dime!
2011-11-22 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the activity out there on the retail side is intense
2011-11-22 16:26:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my local chocolate candy place will get amex's $25
2011-11-22 16:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost a "do or die" attitude if you will
2011-11-22 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-11-22 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: spolier!
2011-11-22 16:26:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, LOL
2011-11-22 16:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let's move on...but I thought I would share another perspective here of the weeks events
2011-11-22 16:27:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2011-11-22 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2011-11-22 16:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we moved to lower lows today
2011-11-22 16:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the chart for a moment
2011-11-22 16:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we keyed in on Monday's gap yesterday
2011-11-22 16:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as to its proper labeling
2011-11-22 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as either an exhaustion gap (which would be quickly filled)
2011-11-22 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a measuring gap (which could be partially filled before moving lower)
2011-11-22 16:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the uneasy feeling I have looking at today's bar
2011-11-22 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that not only did we move to lower intraday lows and didn't challenge yesterday's highs of the day
2011-11-22 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also closed below yesterday's settle
2011-11-22 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not bullish
2011-11-22 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this rather reinforces the idea that this is not only a measuring gap
2011-11-22 16:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we could move sharply lower as soon as tomorrow
2011-11-22 16:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise
2011-11-22 16:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same gap is the center of 3
2011-11-22 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today is a small 4
2011-11-22 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a panic 5th wave would finish out the pattern
2011-11-22 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here though
2011-11-22 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if this kind of scenario comes about
2011-11-22 16:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would only be the completion of a 3rd wave structure only based on our generating flags on this same decline
2011-11-22 16:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that another 4 and a 5 is due to come after that
2011-11-22 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could push us into the December period in which we talked about yesterday as the likely time for our anticipated low
2011-11-22 16:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2011-11-22 16:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I spoke with Doc this morning
2011-11-22 16:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: his initial Hurst projection was the 3rd or 4th week of December for a major low
2011-11-22 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he kind of threw that out when the market reversed hard on October 4th
2011-11-22 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but interestingly enough, we seem to be right back on this target date now given the last weeks worth of data
2011-11-22 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point
2011-11-22 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should remain full defensive mode
2011-11-22 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continue to anticipate that any intermediate term tradable low probably won't come now until after December OPEX
2011-11-22 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is 12/16
2011-11-22 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of technical damage has now been done to the market internals
2011-11-22 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take the better part of a month to get things back to proper position to rally
2011-11-22 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NASDAQ
2011-11-22 16:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note tonight that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM looks to taking the more bullish outlook from yesterday's options in moving down and through its zero line tomorrow
2011-11-22 16:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we move from one side of control to the other, we usually get a lot of rough chop in the price pattern
2011-11-22 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like an air pocket when flying can be quite frightening when felt
2011-11-22 16:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is another reason why, along with the chart pattern of the NASDAQ composite, that we might not be able to pull up here near term
2011-11-22 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least slow the rate of descent in the pattern
2011-11-22 16:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those in cash...no problems
2011-11-22 16:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those still long...they might need Rolaids at the ready
2011-11-22 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shorts?
2011-11-22 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be tough on them as well
2011-11-22 16:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because when we get this "oversold"
2011-11-22 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can have a day very much like we saw in the October 3/4 period
2011-11-22 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the market was sharply lower in the morning (the air pocket) and then rally hard into the close (short covering going into a long weekend?)
2011-11-22 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let breadth plurality be our guide here
2011-11-22 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, let's say, the ratio is greater than 5:1 negative tomorrow
2011-11-22 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably not going to have a very good close
2011-11-22 16:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything less, and we're open to the possibility of a flat close
2011-11-22 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully more
2011-11-22 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the pressure is really on the bulls now to step up here or the consequences moving forward may not be too bright
2011-11-22 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did get a small bounce higher today on the NDX breadth MCO
2011-11-22 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a bit of good news there
2011-11-22 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're still deeply "oversold" and begging for relief
2011-11-22 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we get it?
2011-11-22 16:42:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man those postings are wide, though
2011-11-22 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really hard to tell here
2011-11-22 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is leaving at a break neck pace...yes
2011-11-22 16:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is something scaring the participants here
2011-11-22 16:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that a drop of a full half percent in the GDP numbers today has much to do with this influence
2011-11-22 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the FED is going to eventually going to give the US banks another test here soon
2011-11-22 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I mean...really...when FITCH downgrades 9 or 10 German banks
2011-11-22 16:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you KNOW something isn't quite right here
2011-11-22 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see this with the DAX and FTSE A/D patterns which were posted here in the chat yesterday
2011-11-22 16:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lately
2011-11-22 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Spain has been under the microscope
2011-11-22 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside from its great shift in politics this week
2011-11-22 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe too little too late to save
2011-11-22 16:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 25% unemployment in Spain right now
2011-11-22 16:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-22 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those are Depression numbers
2011-11-22 16:46:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Fed announced tests to 6 large banks tonite around 6:00-you are clairvoyant..
2011-11-22 16:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...
2011-11-22 16:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2011-11-22 16:47:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-11-22 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I went to the Miss Cleo school of seeing the future!
2011-11-22 16:47:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet
2011-11-22 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know what happened to her
2011-11-22 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-22 16:47:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: some kind of Euro stress test, it seems
2011-11-22 16:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we're all attached at the hip now aren't we?
2011-11-22 16:48:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: too darn much
2011-11-22 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too late now to do anything about it
2011-11-22 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like MF Global
2011-11-22 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the money is all commingled
2011-11-22 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO continued to dig even lower today
2011-11-22 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of -110
2011-11-22 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...let's take some of the pressure off for a moment
2011-11-22 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember something important here
2011-11-22 16:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more and more we dig lower in the MCO
2011-11-22 16:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more solid the price low when it comes about
2011-11-22 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...this is something for the longer term
2011-11-22 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the other hand
2011-11-22 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is so far acting "like" a bull market completion pattern as we talked about last Tuesday
2011-11-22 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we didn't quite have the higher price highs of the pattern to confirm it
2011-11-22 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the guidelines of the MCSUM do allow this
2011-11-22 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-11-22 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be of paramount importance that we first find some support at the zero line here on the MCSUM and then move back above the +250 level after these same lows
2011-11-22 16:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we aren't able to do this
2011-11-22 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fail in this objective
2011-11-22 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will be in the same position as we were in 2008
2011-11-22 16:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least internally
2011-11-22 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how prices will react can only be known once we have the information available to us
2011-11-22 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many can suggest that we may test the 2009 lows
2011-11-22 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and others will give even more dire downside targets here
2011-11-22 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we have money moving ahead in this same direction
2011-11-22 16:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are all guesses
2011-11-22 16:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could come true
2011-11-22 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but are strictly guesses
2011-11-22 16:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-11-22 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know is that the downside target for the market is to challenge their October 4th lows
2011-11-22 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, the MCO's move below their July lows in this specific sequence
2011-11-22 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be then where we can get new downside targets...not before
2011-11-22 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...all long positions are closed
2011-11-22 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the majority should be in cash
2011-11-22 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for one signal or the other
2011-11-22 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for day traders and scalpers
2011-11-22 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still on "hit and run" for now
2011-11-22 16:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing of bother here
2011-11-22 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the MCO components have, so far, haven't found much in the way of zero line support here
2011-11-22 16:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that the selling is simply swamping any buying that is out there
2011-11-22 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like being the only one on a beach as a 20ft wave is about to hit
2011-11-22 16:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty lonely...and dangerous
2011-11-22 16:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also closed below its -100 level today joining the NDX, SPX and OEX
2011-11-22 16:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO is also below the -100 level now
2011-11-22 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML is at -95
2011-11-22 16:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM moved down and through its +500 level today
2011-11-22 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see the result of this "re-entry...a lower close today on the bar chart
2011-11-22 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be pretty much be the expectation for tomorrow
2011-11-22 17:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the hope here is that with the MCO's as "oversold" as they are, that any downside damage will be minimized
2011-11-22 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2011-11-22 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only one of the group
2011-11-22 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor here
2011-11-22 17:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the snapback line of what was the declining tops line from the previous months tops comes in at around the zero line
2011-11-22 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's this MCSUM that really has my attention here
2011-11-22 17:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it represents the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ markets jointly
2011-11-22 17:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and its failure to move above the +500 level on this last run is a real problem here for the internals
2011-11-22 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the Dow chart
2011-11-22 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside expectation of challenging the October lows is about 1000 points of air below us here
2011-11-22 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we didn't have time yesterday...let's run through the volume McClellan's
2011-11-22 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...
2011-11-22 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting a little too close for comfort on the CO NYSE volume MCO here in relation to its July lows
2011-11-22 17:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2011-11-22 17:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it took a crash of some 10-12% to generate that same MCO low in July
2011-11-22 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far we really haven't matched that kind of downside amplitude as yet
2011-11-22 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the comparable here would have the NYA at around the 6400 level
2011-11-22 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term...
2011-11-22 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be a good thing here IF we can pull up from these same levels
2011-11-22 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would give a solid expectation on any break of the price pattern lows of October as far as divergence is concerned
2011-11-22 17:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is why the bulls really need to step in here
2011-11-22 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be that these next two to three trading days will be the most important ones in the last 3 years
2011-11-22 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...we really should see a reflex here
2011-11-22 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are getting obscenely "oversold" now
2011-11-22 17:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...looking at these volume MCO's here
2011-11-22 17:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's might be off the chart now
2011-11-22 17:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...a slight bounce higher on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-11-22 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good
2011-11-22 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the majority of selling might be done now with the secondaries
2011-11-22 17:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually means that broad based selling is just about over
2011-11-22 17:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if the NDX confirms
2011-11-22 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2011-11-22 17:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bounce there as well
2011-11-22 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be pointed out
2011-11-22 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have yet to move to lower lows than that of the October spike as yet on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-11-22 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is resting right on its rising bottoms line tonight
2011-11-22 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't seem doable though that we're likely to hold above it given how deep in the pit we are right now
2011-11-22 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow... -122 on the SPX volume MCO
2011-11-22 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's ridiculous
2011-11-22 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it caused the SPX volume MCSUM to slice through its +500 level like a hot knife
2011-11-22 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm...what do you think?
2011-11-22 17:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we break to new lows on the OEX volume MCO?
2011-11-22 17:15:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: seeing volume leading isn't too comforting
2011-11-22 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just above it
2011-11-22 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yikes
2011-11-22 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10 numbers must be really high now
2011-11-22 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broke it on the Dow
2011-11-22 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh boy
2011-11-22 17:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -144
2011-11-22 17:16:16 [Message] darris -> Chat: Well, it is starting.  ES futures contract just spiked down to 1168.75
2011-11-22 17:16:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2011-11-22 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's still above the all time lows of the Flash Crash
2011-11-22 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think that was around -175
2011-11-22 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder how much of this is programs?
2011-11-22 17:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I couldn't even guess where we would be without the MCSUM's as high as they still are
2011-11-22 17:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-11-22 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we getting more and more vulnerable now
2011-11-22 17:18:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: The ES futures contract bid/ask volume has been much lighter the last 4 months since the August situation.  prices float around a lot faster due to the lack of liquidity.  Also china PMI in a little over an hour
2011-11-22 17:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if it's so much a lack of liquidity that's the problem
2011-11-22 17:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really a lack of trading and matching up buyers and sellers
2011-11-22 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many are still sitting on their hands here
2011-11-22 17:19:51 [Message] darris -> Chat: Some say the HFT programs log out, so to speak, in the AH now.  all I meant by low liquidity was low bid ask volume available in the AH
2011-11-22 17:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand
2011-11-22 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: program trading though...or HFT's whatever...are still under the supervision of humans
2011-11-22 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless Skynet has taken over
2011-11-22 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have global trading here unlike anything we've had in the past
2011-11-22 17:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-22 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking about it
2011-11-22 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of the trading in the states is very much like it is in Asia these days, wouldn't you say?
2011-11-22 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has that same "conditioning"
2011-11-22 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow futures now down 100
2011-11-22 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were up 20 when we started
2011-11-22 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, if anything, you know the technical reasons why we likely to have a bumpy day or two here
2011-11-22 17:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2011-11-22 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lack of strength here is telling a story
2011-11-22 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe liquidation because of margin calls
2011-11-22 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe finding ways to come up with lost funds from MF Global affecting others in the grid?
2011-11-22 17:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said earlier
2011-11-22 17:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my Spidey Sense is tingling here
2011-11-22 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's never a good thing
2011-11-22 17:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hope I'm wrong
2011-11-22 17:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some relief in the CVI's...not much
2011-11-22 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected...the STVO's are off the chart here
2011-11-22 17:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX and OEX at the same levels as the August crash lows
2011-11-22 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a great example when we talk about how the market reacts in situations when the MCSUM's are well above their zero lines
2011-11-22 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the short term slaughter going on here
2011-11-22 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these higher MCSUM levels - these "cushions" between the two EMA's - act to keep prices from falling apart as they did in August
2011-11-22 17:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it may not look the same
2011-11-22 17:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it can become the same the closer we come to the MCSUM zero line
2011-11-22 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always a matter of amplitude
2011-11-22 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the energy of money will provide for the direction of price itself
2011-11-22 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...the energy moving out of the market is in overdrive
2011-11-22 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices remain fairly firm in spite of this same acceleration in funds
2011-11-22 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a matter of physics really
2011-11-22 17:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-22 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX VTO is now near being "oversold"
2011-11-22 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and OEX are now just south of neutral
2011-11-22 17:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow VTO is still enjoying the benefits of being as "overbought" as it was...it still isn't even close to finding balance here at its zero line
2011-11-22 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can be pretty sure that until the Dow VTO joins the rest of these indexes, we're not likely to see a price low in this current structure
2011-11-22 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.64
2011-11-22 17:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.35
2011-11-22 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a bottom...most of the time
2011-11-22 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the 2010 correctional period
2011-11-22 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw lower lows there
2011-11-22 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with the 21 day and 55 day SMA's as well
2011-11-22 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might be close, but we may not be through either
2011-11-22 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: goodness
2011-11-22 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ TRIN was at .60 today
2011-11-22 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2011-11-22 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 87
2011-11-22 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.20
2011-11-22 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and check out the position of the 21 and 55 day SMA's on the TRINQ and the Total market...not even close to being in a position of wash out here
2011-11-22 17:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests
2011-11-22 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there's a lot of selling here with the financials
2011-11-22 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that this sector has a large presence on the NYSE
2011-11-22 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did BAC do today?
2011-11-22 17:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5.37!
2011-11-22 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the pattern...it certainly doesn't instill confidence, does it?
2011-11-22 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neither does JPM
2011-11-22 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: below 30 now
2011-11-22 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm over at DP
2011-11-22 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the Financial stocks that make up the IYF
2011-11-22 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the worse, of course, is MF Global
2011-11-22 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these are the issues that have the worse technicals
2011-11-22 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Jefferies
2011-11-22 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: E-Trade
2011-11-22 17:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BofA
2011-11-22 17:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Federated...which is a large presence in retail
2011-11-22 17:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Goldman Sachs
2011-11-22 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's on the last page
2011-11-22 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-22 17:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GS is now at its closing lows of the year
2011-11-22 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the ADX there just gave a trend signal to the downside
2011-11-22 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Legg Mason closed a their lows of the year today too
2011-11-22 17:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh
2011-11-22 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-22 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do the bulls have anything left in them here?
2011-11-22 17:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they certainly are in a position to at least make a stab at it
2011-11-22 17:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what will probably happen here is what we saw in October
2011-11-22 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard down open...and then hopefully improve during the day
2011-11-22 17:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can only stretch a rubber band so far before it must snapback....
2011-11-22 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2011-11-22 17:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it breaks
2011-11-22 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2011-11-22 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wish I had something bright and cheery to leave you with for the holiday
2011-11-22 17:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-22 17:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the next couple of days will likely to be a critical moment for the longer term
2011-11-22 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much of it will probably come from Europe
2011-11-22 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the great majority here are on vacation now
2011-11-22 17:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they will keep plugging along
2011-11-22 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2011-11-22 17:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market can not take too more much bad news here
2011-11-22 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes
2011-11-22 17:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-11-22 17:47:31 [Message] darris -> Chat: Futures are trading most of the day on Thursday, and the FTSE and DAX trade on Thursday as well.  The Japan or Asia trades Friday night without the US futures markets being open.
2011-11-22 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for that
2011-11-22 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need a program card these days to keep track
2011-11-22 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me
2011-11-22 17:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just watch how Europe goes these days
2011-11-22 17:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have been playing "Sybil" with the market for the last 6 months
2011-11-22 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if don't like the current personality...just wait 5 minutes
2011-11-22 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2011-11-22 17:49:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no sense is really playing with the market here...
2011-11-22 17:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I suggest taking a break and spending time with your families
2011-11-22 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will always be there on Monday when you return
2011-11-22 17:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those outside the US
2011-11-22 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good luck! lol
2011-11-22 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seriously though
2011-11-22 17:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm pretty sure that both the DAX and the FTSE A/D lines have broken to new lows now
2011-11-22 17:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Darris...do you have anything on that?
2011-11-22 17:50:48 [Message] darris -> Chat: sure just a sec
2011-11-22 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2011-11-22 17:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments while we wait?
2011-11-22 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always remember what's important here in this business
2011-11-22 17:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: capital preservation is far more important than capital appreciation
2011-11-22 17:52:51 [Message] darris -> Chat: the dax has minus 44 net the last two days, and the ftse has minus 80 the last two days.  approx but probably very close
2011-11-22 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for without capital, you can't appreciate it
2011-11-22 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very close
2011-11-22 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weeks data will be important to review this weekend
2011-11-22 17:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember everyone
2011-11-22 17:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this is the last Friday of the month
2011-11-22 17:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that means a review of the BPI charts which now includes the FTSE and DAX
2011-11-22 17:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else, I'm going to take off
2011-11-22 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great Thanksgiving!
2011-11-22 17:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those outside the US ...a great rest of the week
2011-11-22 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look next Tuesday
2011-11-22 17:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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