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Posts: 4,888
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-11-22 16:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-11-22 16:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-11-22 16:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-11-22 16:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-11-22 16:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what should be one of many tonight, the CO NYSE breadth MCO had a small point change today
2010-11-22 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains just short of its zero line
2010-11-22 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components remain above their zero line although we're still on a cross over sell signal
2010-11-22 16:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together...we continue to be in a corrective condition
2010-11-22 16:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the MCO is below its zero line, and the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is above its zero line, we should expect choppy behavior to continue
2010-11-22 16:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the CO breadth MCSUM is slowing its downward pattern as it approaches its +500 level
2010-11-22 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we usually see some sort of support
2010-11-22 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the question now is whether or not we're going to attempt to make a turn higher and trace out a fishhook pattern or plow through the +500 level on a near term basis
2010-11-22 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that this is a holiday week, one of these two outcomes should be seen by Tuesday's close
2010-11-22 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the small point change tonight
2010-11-22 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at a point of compression - what we used to call "tension on the tape" - and looking for direction
2010-11-22 16:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on both the traditional and ratio adjusted NYSE composite breadth MCO's
2010-11-22 16:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's indeed expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2010-11-22 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind that although that the MCSUM continues to move lower
2010-11-22 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't neccessarily mean that we couldn't move to higher price highs as the momentum of the energy that moved into the market in October is worked off
2010-11-22 16:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...Elliott wise...this could be our infamous B wave of a simple 4th wave flat
2010-11-22 16:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we move to test the highs, then we'll have our opportunity to wash things out
2010-11-22 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both internally, as well as, externally
2010-11-22 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2010-11-22 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% components on the charts covered so far fully meeting our obligatory snapbacks to their zero lines that we expected last week
2010-11-22 16:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could go a higher...could also snapback and test the zero line from the top side now
2010-11-22 16:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall, like I mentioned over the weekend in the weekly breadth update, we should continue to expect choppy behavior for probably the rest of the week
2010-11-22 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line
2010-11-22 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% component giving a cross over buy signal today
2010-11-22 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, I would be suspicious of this particular cross over as we're probably closer to finishing what needed to be done technically then we are starting anything new
2010-11-22 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls to change this expectation
2010-11-22 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would need to see the NDX MCO move above the +50 level
2010-11-22 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s only part of a reflex and not to be fooled otherwise
2010-11-22 16:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO
2010-11-22 16:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but notice that the angle of descent on the SPX breadth MCSUM suggests that the trend of money flow it likely to continue going lower from here despite of what we may see price wise over the near term
2010-11-22 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO snapped back down to its -50 level today
2010-11-22 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which may be a prelude to further upside behavior to fulfill the technical expectation of snapping back a little closer to its zero line
2010-11-22 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's move lower also broke the +500 level to the downside on the OEX breadth MCSUM
2010-11-22 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market continues to unwind in an orderly fashion
2010-11-22 16:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also with the components
2010-11-22 16:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the 10% Index was turned away from the zero line, while the 5% Index has now snapped back down to its zero line
2010-11-22 16:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we're basically in no mans land near term
2010-11-22 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning we could go either way over the next day or two
2010-11-22 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...they just want constructive behavior on the MCO
2010-11-22 16:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time to continue to see the MCSUM move lower to a better range of neutrality between buyers and sellers
2010-11-22 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no downtrend is evident as yet
2010-11-22 16:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything continues to point to a correction...nothing more
2010-11-22 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the OEX breadth MCO snapped back down to its -50 level, the Dow breadth MCO was turned away from this same level
2010-11-22 16:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one things for sure...the Dow is showing the weakest amount of money flow at this particular time
2010-11-22 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could deceive the average trader into thinking that something bigger on the bearish side is going on right now
2010-11-22 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the substantive proof of such a statement coming with the MID breadth MCO and its ability of snapping back all the way up to its zero line
2010-11-22 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2010-11-22 16:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID price pattern is within 6 points of testing its recent highs
2010-11-22 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not something that would indicate a change in trend
2010-11-22 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least not at this point
2010-11-22 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can only work with what is given to us
2010-11-22 16:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too
2010-11-22 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO components are suggesting that we're probably close to some sort of completion of the reflex rally of the last 4 trading days
2010-11-22 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost the same situation with the SML data
2010-11-22 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which continues to provide us our best reason why we're more than likely correcting excesses as opposed to seeing a top here
2010-11-22 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's very rare to see the markets reverse course without the secondary and small caps leading in that direction
2010-11-22 16:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this isn't happening
2010-11-22 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can rest assured that liquidity levels remain high enough to withstand any short term problems (surprises) that may hit the markets over the next several days
2010-11-22 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2010-11-22 16:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...based on history...we'll probably see something dramatic on Tuesday, because after that, many of the major traders will be away on holiday
2010-11-22 16:30:30 [Message] numbersgame -> Chat: So dave, your earlier mention of a washout is only a short term suspicion?
2010-11-22 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the washout is necessary to build a keystone from which an advancing price structure can build on
2010-11-22 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might start to happen as soon as tomorrow
2010-11-22 16:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the favorable seasonality
2010-11-22 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we were able to back and fill nicely today
2010-11-22 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my suspicion would be for a rally attempt on Tuesday
2010-11-22 16:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop around on Wednesday
2010-11-22 16:32:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lots of news in the morning
2010-11-22 16:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday start to sag...
2010-11-22 16:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then next week we should begin to put things together for a bottom
2010-11-22 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow?
2010-11-22 16:32:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-11-22 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: such as?
2010-11-22 16:32:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: GDP
2010-11-22 16:32:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: home sales
2010-11-22 16:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: home sales
2010-11-22 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2010-11-22 16:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you know my opinion on that
2010-11-22 16:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: home sales should now start to improve over the next 6 months
2010-11-22 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we are in the slowest part of the year
2010-11-22 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rhythm today though had a bullish tone to it
2010-11-22 16:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so whatever is announced on Tuesday...I wouldn't be too surprised of an upside resolution for our small point changes
2010-11-22 16:34:27 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I noticed the highest P/C rate in the last two years on OEX today. Does that provide a hint to the direction of the following days?
2010-11-22 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that doesn't mean, however, that breadth of market will reflect this
2010-11-22 16:34:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dunno, lots of those mcsums have room south to next 250
2010-11-22 16:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is after Option expiration - could be part of a defensive allocation
2010-11-22 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..but the MCSUM's are moving lower in an orderly fashion
2010-11-22 16:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they WILL continue lower
2010-11-22 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (at least I hope so)
2010-11-22 16:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that doesn't mean that prices can't go higher
2010-11-22 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know that now
2010-11-22 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have seen this happen time and time again
2010-11-22 16:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the momentum of a move is not based on the energy that is no longer there to feed it
2010-11-22 16:36:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sma room upward on mids and smalls, many 5's and 10's pointed south
2010-11-22 16:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "An object that is in motion will not change its velocity unless an unbalanced force acts upon it"
2010-11-22 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of Newton's laws of motion
2010-11-22 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will continue to do so
2010-11-22 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would suggest that either a fishhook or ledge is about to be created
2010-11-22 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for that to happen
2010-11-22 16:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's will need to go positive
2010-11-22 16:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-11-22 16:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the amount of work many of the breadth MCO's have done over the last several days
2010-11-22 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be a reasonable expectation for these same MCO's to find near term resistance at their zero lines as we have fulfilled these technical expectations
2010-11-22 16:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...we have a holiday period coming up now
2010-11-22 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and holiday's tend to give us positive seasonality
2010-11-22 16:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus...if we're doing an Elliot flat here
2010-11-22 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to challenge the recent highs
2010-11-22 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that can be done with a declining MCSUM
2010-11-22 16:39:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looks like some will flat, and others won't, though
2010-11-22 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the MCSUM is only measuring the distance between the 19 day and 39 day EMA's of the A/D line itself
2010-11-22 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't know that
2010-11-22 16:39:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2010-11-22 16:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's speculation
2010-11-22 16:39:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-11-22 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you have the A/D line on the side of a full test
2010-11-22 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D lines are all in bullish configurations
2010-11-22 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are NOT trending lower
2010-11-22 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are moving sideways...pausing
2010-11-22 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's very important point in all of this
2010-11-22 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your emotion says that we should go down NOW and test
2010-11-22 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the money is suggesting something else
2010-11-22 16:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2010-11-22 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a classic island reversal holding the current 3 day consolidation in check on a couple of the index charts
2010-11-22 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given all of this
2010-11-22 16:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have made it clear that...really...we could go either way here
2010-11-22 16:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just wouldn't be stubborn here near term and let the market lead the way near term
2010-11-22 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run
2010-11-22 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are futures now?
2010-11-22 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flat?
2010-11-22 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2010-11-22 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the futures don't really mean anything lately
2010-11-22 16:43:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: pretty much-down 2
2010-11-22 16:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flat
2010-11-22 16:43:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: y
2010-11-22 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important to allow the physics in all of this work its way out
2010-11-22 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or through
2010-11-22 16:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's still very higher here
2010-11-22 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and several still "overbought"
2010-11-22 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will continue to be VERY difficult for the bears to mount anything more than a 2 day affair without seeing a reversal
2010-11-22 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volume McClellan's
2010-11-22 16:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE volume MCSUM is also nearing its +500 level
2010-11-22 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still "overbought"
2010-11-22 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you're at a extreme of either "overbought" or "oversold"
2010-11-22 16:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any and all surprises will generally be in the direction of this same extreme
2010-11-22 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...up
2010-11-22 16:46:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it will surprise me to blow through the 500, that's for sure
2010-11-22 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is approaching its +750 level
2010-11-22 16:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..we will eventually blow through it
2010-11-22 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a matter of timing as to when
2010-11-22 16:46:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: twt
2010-11-22 16:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely...we're going to move off of this support and trace out a ledge or fishhook in the next couple of days
2010-11-22 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we get broadsided by some news event
2010-11-22 16:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if prices continue to move up to challenge the recent highs
2010-11-22 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be sure that many shorts will cover
2010-11-22 16:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they do...this will push the MCO above its zero line
2010-11-22 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that'll get your ledge or fishhook
2010-11-22 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM is at the +1000 level
2010-11-22 16:48:49 [Message] orange -> Chat: What do you consider a ledge to look like?
2010-11-22 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the SPX and OEX volume MCSUM's are below their +250 level
2010-11-22 16:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ledges are...
2010-11-22 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of a mountain and there is a plateau...cliff...ledge
2010-11-22 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that plateau has a slight upward angle to it
2010-11-22 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ledges generally form on the MCSUM towards the end of a correction or bearish pullback and the sellers start to wane
2010-11-22 16:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fishhooks are a bit different
2010-11-22 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they look like the descriptor
2010-11-22 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're not flat as a plateau would be as they are emotionally based
2010-11-22 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they hook up and then fail and move sharply to the downside
2010-11-22 16:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be either one
2010-11-22 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the current interplay between breadth and volume plurality
2010-11-22 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the volume data
2010-11-22 16:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX and OEX breaking below their +250 level
2010-11-22 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears can now start to gain an upper hand on any bearish surprises that we may see going forward
2010-11-22 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean
2010-11-22 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we did happen to challenge the recent highs
2010-11-22 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that has been accomplished
2010-11-22 16:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move lower should be with a lot of flair
2010-11-22 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be pretty much like we tend to see with Elliott C waves in a flat
2010-11-22 16:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...all of this needs works together for it be viable
2010-11-22 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID volume MCSUM and we see that is at the +750 level
2010-11-22 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...I can't think of any time in history when we've seen a market top out with the Mid Caps and the NDX showing a greater amount of buoyancy compared to the large caps
2010-11-22 16:54:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dot com?
2010-11-22 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this just shows the high the degree...nope
2010-11-22 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during the bubble
2010-11-22 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM remained below its zero line during the final advance
2010-11-22 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the bottom line here is simple
2010-11-22 16:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market is going to pull back
2010-11-22 16:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will do so not because of a lack of liquidity
2010-11-22 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will do so because of emotion
2010-11-22 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as technicians
2010-11-22 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that when this kind of thing takes place, buying opportunities are created that reflect "wholesale" pricing
2010-11-22 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...even the TM volume MCSUM is supporting a +734 reading right now
2010-11-22 16:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we get this high
2010-11-22 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for prices to fall in any meaningful way
2010-11-22 16:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they do
2010-11-22 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're likely to see full retracements just as quickly
2010-11-22 16:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we're attempting to do right now
2010-11-22 16:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the deep end of a pool
2010-11-22 16:58:44 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-22 16:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way the ball stays under water is if there is something keeping it there
2010-11-22 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that leverage is gone...the ball will rush back to the surface
2010-11-22 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's what displacement is all about
2010-11-22 16:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why a boat floats
2010-11-22 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the same thing here
2010-11-22 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market can not do what can't be done physically
2010-11-22 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will a better op to do so once the liquidity levels subside
2010-11-22 17:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking our clues from the data
2010-11-22 17:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the large caps are the more vulnerable of the issues out there right now
2010-11-22 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which kind of makes sense
2010-11-22 17:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since global traders will tend to stick to those products where there is a high probability of being able to move out of a position quickly
2010-11-22 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either to generate cash (as in the case of a country's imminent collapse)
2010-11-22 17:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or could be for another reason based on their allocation methods
2010-11-22 17:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who really knows
2010-11-22 17:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the exception of the NDX, the CVI's are basically neutral here
2010-11-22 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2010-11-22 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's continue to snapback to their zero lines
2010-11-22 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remain "oversold" enough where we could continue to see positive volume moving for another day or two
2010-11-22 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's, overall, are neutral while continuing to unwind their highly "overbought" levels
2010-11-22 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important stuff...the TRIN's
2010-11-22 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.54
2010-11-22 17:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2010-11-22 17:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-11-22 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .54
2010-11-22 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2010-11-22 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-11-22 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .78
2010-11-22 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2010-11-22 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-11-22 17:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-11-22 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would give a slight nod to the bulls for Tuesday
2010-11-22 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's not an easy task for the bears to break to the downside with the Open 10's all "oversold"
2010-11-22 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can it be done?
2010-11-22 17:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can...but it won't be easy
2010-11-22 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at today
2010-11-22 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had nice momentum to the downside until the afternoon and then the bears lost control
2010-11-22 17:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have 5 up on the 5 minute chart
2010-11-22 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a pullback in the morning
2010-11-22 17:08:42 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: 5 up?
2010-11-22 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not likely that we're going to see anything important happen to the downside
2010-11-22 17:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-11-22 17:08:51 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: 5 bars up?
2010-11-22 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5 minute chart
2010-11-22 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott reference
2010-11-22 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the 5 minute up...
2010-11-22 17:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: started at 12:45 with the mid range bar
2010-11-22 17:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one up into 13:10
2010-11-22 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two down into 13:20 (or so)
2010-11-22 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: three up into 15:00 etc
2010-11-22 17:11:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 5 wave a of "B" up, likely
2010-11-22 17:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but it could be only partial.....
2010-11-22 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (let's not drive everyone bonkers on this)
2010-11-22 17:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make it simple
2010-11-22 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in an Elliott flat
2010-11-22 17:12:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's in, without fishing
2010-11-22 17:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should challenge the recent highs
2010-11-22 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe
2010-11-22 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not
2010-11-22 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the amount of fall out from last Tuesday
2010-11-22 17:12:35 [Message] orange -> Chat: recent highs, as in 1220?
2010-11-22 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to take more time to retrace...and become complex
2010-11-22 17:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: recent highs as in the daily highs of early November
2010-11-22 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2010-11-22 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Elliott aside
2010-11-22 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals suggest that we can now move either way
2010-11-22 17:14:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I agree the flat most likely here, considering..
2010-11-22 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the leaning here is with the bulls because of the "oversold" Open 10 readings in the face of already rallying 20 SPX points
2010-11-22 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would make the most amount of sense given the high "overbought" nature of breadth and volume on an Intermediate term basis
2010-11-22 17:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the market to develop a change in trend
2010-11-22 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we MUST have money moving in that preferred direction
2010-11-22 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't
2010-11-22 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: period
2010-11-22 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you wish to play the game
2010-11-22 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue to hit and run
2010-11-22 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the problem will tend to be
2010-11-22 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that most of the work will probably be done in the first hour or so
2010-11-22 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the bears were able to extend this to 3 hours today before running our of ammo
2010-11-22 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is because the MCSUM's are now moving below levels in which the bears can actually move prices in their direction
2010-11-22 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not nearly uniform enough for them to hold those positions for very long
2010-11-22 17:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a car in need of a tune up
2010-11-22 17:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the cylinders are out of're going to back fire.
2010-11-22 17:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not move very well will be hurky jerky
2010-11-22 17:20:48 [Message] orange -> Chat: it sounds like any move down will be met with bounces and inside days
2010-11-22 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments?
2010-11-22 17:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much and for the reasons given
2010-11-22 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a high level consolidation
2010-11-22 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can be a trading range...or a triangle
2010-11-22 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the concept here that needs to first be embraced is that money moves in advance of price
2010-11-22 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money isn't moving out...we have a consolidation
2010-11-22 17:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money isn't moving in...we have a consolidation
2010-11-22 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only when money is trending do we see prices follow that trend
2010-11-22 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a highly important concept
2010-11-22 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because everything else we look at on a technical basis not only has its basis on this idea
2010-11-22 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will also give us the probability of something actually being able to occur given this same money flow quotient
2010-11-22 17:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-11-22 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money flow is moving in...that is...the MCSUM is moving higher
2010-11-22 17:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what momentum oscillator you use to measure price
2010-11-22 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each time it diverges with the last high
2010-11-22 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely that it will give you the desired result of a price reversal
2010-11-22 17:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if money is moving south
2010-11-22 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with these same tops beneath tops
2010-11-22 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN your probability to outcome ratio increases dramatically
2010-11-22 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times have we seen people get frustrated over the last couple of months because their use of divergence techniques didn't work?
2010-11-22 17:26:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ton, lol
2010-11-22 17:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: techniques like this are nice
2010-11-22 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until the flow of money AGREES with this loss of's just something to talk about
2010-11-22 17:27:26 [Message] orange -> Chat: i used to follow divergence techniques, but found they didn't work half of the time
2010-11-22 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can't trade them
2010-11-22 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...they work ALL the time
2010-11-22 17:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you may have been missing, though, is what we're talking about here
2010-11-22 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would give yourself the opportunity to re-examine this again
2010-11-22 17:28:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when in sync-they are lovely to trade
2010-11-22 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and utilize the direction of the A/D line and see if you get a different result
2010-11-22 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are
2010-11-22 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to remember
2010-11-22 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that oscillators work their best magic only when we're in consolidation patterns
2010-11-22 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't work as well when we're trending
2010-11-22 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why oscillators can go to extremes and stay there
2010-11-22 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2010-11-22 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when they stay there and don't "work" we give up
2010-11-22 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we should only use them during times of non trends
2010-11-22 17:30:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they work well as bait, until breadth turns, LOL
2010-11-22 17:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every indicator and tool out there has a magic spot
2010-11-22 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the point of all of this
2010-11-22 17:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the tide is against you
2010-11-22 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter how much you fight it, it will win
2010-11-22 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try going into an ocean when there's a rip tide
2010-11-22 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can fight the tide, but eventually it will always win out
2010-11-22 17:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we try to follow the money
2010-11-22 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes we have to hold our nose to do this
2010-11-22 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we're human...we sometimes allow our emotions play into this
2010-11-22 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what I've found over the years is that I can have an opinion about the market...economics...or whatever
2010-11-22 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like trying to sell a house
2010-11-22 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you get the majority to agree with you, you're just wasting your time....and money
2010-11-22 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also very important to know and understand what each indicator does
2010-11-22 17:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...I have used them all
2010-11-22 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I have found maybe 5 that I tend to work with now
2010-11-22 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only is it important to understand what the math is behind a tool
2010-11-22 17:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this understanding helps in determining HOW and WHERE to use the tool and its appropriate application
2010-11-22 17:34:41 [Message] orange -> Chat: absolutely...You see a lot of people pointing out divergences but not really having the intuition for what it means
2010-11-22 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone has to go through this
2010-11-22 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have all been there before
2010-11-22 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2010-11-22 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some see divergences and then make an opinion before they're even triggered
2010-11-22 17:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will ALWAYS have divergences
2010-11-22 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the way things are
2010-11-22 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing is determining how important it is
2010-11-22 17:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's timing as it applies to the direction of money flow
2010-11-22 17:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this all has to work together
2010-11-22 17:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a jigsaw puzzle
2010-11-22 17:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have to believe in what it's telling you
2010-11-22 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you doubt might as well throw it away
2010-11-22 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...when we make a blueprint in these chat sessions of what we believe is the likely result given the information we cover
2010-11-22 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is based on substantive methods of determining what can or can't occur
2010-11-22 17:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, you never really know what will happen since we're dealing with humans
2010-11-22 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all we want to have the best percentage of possible outcome
2010-11-22 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the percentage...the easier the trade
2010-11-22 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a specific goal even before you make the trade
2010-11-22 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no guessing
2010-11-22 17:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no fudging
2010-11-22 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for day traders
2010-11-22 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing the direction of money is so paramount I can't begin to share the importance
2010-11-22 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but those who have learned some of the nuances of the McClellan's over the years that we've been doing this
2010-11-22 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be surprised if anyone hasn't increased their winning trade ratios
2010-11-22 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it compliments what you already know and have learned
2010-11-22 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although I may be wrong in giving the bulls the nod tonight
2010-11-22 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have several solid points of evidence that will back me up
2010-11-22 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's busted...then that tells us something else
2010-11-22 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always a great amount of fluidity to trading
2010-11-22 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leave others to worry about Bernanke and Ireland
2010-11-22 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money KNOWS everything we know
2010-11-22 17:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and KNOWS more than we know...especially the big money
2010-11-22 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so instead of fighting it, it's our job and it's far easier just to know its direction and follow it in
2010-11-22 17:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or out as the case may be
2010-11-22 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it simple
2010-11-22 17:43:23 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Do you have some recommendations as to how best to measure intraday money flow for day trade timing in order to supplement the shorter term oscillators for best timing?
2010-11-22 17:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well....
2010-11-22 17:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I tend to keep it simple and use a 21 period EMA and a 34 period EMA on the 5 minute data
2010-11-22 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I already know what's going on daily based on what we work with here in the chat
2010-11-22 17:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so all I'm doing is tweaking positions
2010-11-22 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'll never go against the grain
2010-11-22 17:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM and MCO are positive...I'm only looking for longs
2010-11-22 17:44:53 [Message] orange -> Chat: even for a scalp?
2010-11-22 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm too old to scalp these days
2010-11-22 17:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-11-22 17:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your easier scalps will ALWAYS be in the direction of the trend of money
2010-11-22 17:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew...? can you support that statement?
2010-11-22 17:45:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely!
2010-11-22 17:46:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super careful on my end against trend
2010-11-22 17:46:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: usually leave some on the table
2010-11-22 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is everyone has their "level of incompetence"
2010-11-22 17:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...I have learned that I want a trade to be as easy as possible
2010-11-22 17:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not in the mood any more to try to pick off every little intraday move
2010-11-22 17:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the day
2010-11-22 17:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's call that 15 years ago
2010-11-22 17:47:55 [Message] orange -> Chat: yea...tiring
2010-11-22 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't is
2010-11-22 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so why fight it?
2010-11-22 17:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do we ALWAYS have to be in the market?
2010-11-22 17:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: isn't being in cash a position too?
2010-11-22 17:48:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: me more than you-no day job, LOL
2010-11-22 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...yes...that's a good point
2010-11-22 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like any job
2010-11-22 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you come in and you have an objective for the day
2010-11-22 17:49:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you bet
2010-11-22 17:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can make it difficult, or you can be patient and make it easy on yourself
2010-11-22 17:49:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no greed here, either
2010-11-22 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason why we trade technically
2010-11-22 17:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is because all of us realize that being in the market day in and day out doesn't make you as much money as it does if you pick and choose your entry and exit points
2010-11-22 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here
2010-11-22 17:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that no matter what time frame or trading style we have
2010-11-22 17:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only want to make our money work FOR US on a consistent basis
2010-11-22 17:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2010-11-22 17:51:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm on your page more than you think, Dave - just trading smaller wiggles
2010-11-22 17:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard enough to make it
2010-11-22 17:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand Lew
2010-11-22 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said before
2010-11-22 17:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone has their own level of tolerance
2010-11-22 17:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway, we are all here with one goal
2010-11-22 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to beat the market
2010-11-22 17:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else, no one else matters
2010-11-22 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2010-11-22 17:54:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: gap down, then up like you predict. Thx for a great chat
2010-11-22 17:54:25 [Message] orange -> Chat: thanks fib
2010-11-22 17:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-11-22 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember
2010-11-22 17:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger picture from last week suggested that we were to have a reflex rally
2010-11-22 17:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will likely die off
2010-11-22 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then another move lower to test last Tuesday's lows
2010-11-22 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it starts tomorrow, or after we move to challenge the November highs, we shouldn't lose sight of the bigger picture
2010-11-22 17:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if we do
2010-11-22 17:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we lose sight on our blueprint
2010-11-22 17:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market thinks be it
2010-11-22 17:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we change with it
2010-11-22 17:56:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the blueprint has been great
2010-11-22 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...yes
2010-11-22 17:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market speaks quite eloquently
2010-11-22 17:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our job is just to listen and follow its advice
2010-11-22 17:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2010-11-22 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm taking off
2010-11-22 17:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a good trading day tomorrow
2010-11-22 17:57:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2010-11-22 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again tomorrow night
2010-11-22 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-11-22 17:58:46 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Good night and thanks!

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