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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-11-02 15:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-11-02 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-11-02 16:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-11-02 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-11-02 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after finding zero line resistance today
2012-11-02 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved slightly lower
2012-11-02 16:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price chart
2012-11-02 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a large outside range day today
2012-11-02 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given our closing higher on Thursday
2012-11-02 16:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest a down close on Monday
2012-11-02 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO MCO components are also back to a sell signal
2012-11-02 16:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would appear that we did indeed had a short covering rally yesterday
2012-11-02 16:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now challenging its August lows
2012-11-02 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break below this level on Monday
2012-11-02 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the next potential support area is the gap support zone when the MCO made its spike high on July 3rd
2012-11-02 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2012-11-02 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO pattern remains constructive with bottoms above bottoms continuing to control the pattern
2012-11-02 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line also held on the NYSE composite breadth MCO
2012-11-02 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much of this back and fill today was probably caused by the broader market not taking the lead of the common only data yesterday
2012-11-02 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components here
2012-11-02 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both the 10% and 5% are showing better buoyancy on today's pullback which could be whisper that the market is in the process of sorting things out
2012-11-02 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line resistance as well with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-11-02 16:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also with an outside range day on the NASDAQ composite itself
2012-11-02 16:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's decline in the MCO also pushed the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to challenge of the -250 level
2012-11-02 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a current reading of -234
2012-11-02 16:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reversal on the NDX breadth MCO as well
2012-11-02 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX breadth MCSUM continues to try to hold around the -500 level
2012-11-02 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's zero line reversal on the SPX breadth MCO also provided a reversal in the SPX breadth MCSUM today after having a one day snapback toward the zero line
2012-11-02 16:18:13 [Message] hkk -> Chat: sellers in full control?
2012-11-02 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are in control...yes
2012-11-02 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're still close enough to the zero line where a the bulls can grab it right back
2012-11-02 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we saw a couple of weeks ago
2012-11-02 16:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to have "control" we must see two things take place internally
2012-11-02 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the MCO...we need texture
2012-11-02 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the MCSUM we need gap expansion
2012-11-02 16:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so yesterday's pause was just that
2012-11-02 16:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there hasn't been a pick up in the momentum of this selling as yet
2012-11-02 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one wouldn't expect this after only one trading day
2012-11-02 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically speaking
2012-11-02 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the which the side these oscillators lie in relation to their zero line
2012-11-02 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tells us who has "control"
2012-11-02 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX
2012-11-02 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the OEX breadth MCSUM did move below its zero line today
2012-11-02 16:20:50 [Message] hkk -> Chat: ISEE closed at 135 today, doesn't help the bulls
2012-11-02 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after showing a somewhat feeble bounce on Thursday
2012-11-02 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...a 135 right now is not highly bearish
2012-11-02 16:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the 8 day EMA is somewhere around 100 right now
2012-11-02 16:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2012-11-02 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we were discussing in August
2012-11-02 16:22:21 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so if the buyers step up first thing next week, the bulls just might still have a chance
2012-11-02 16:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was probably going to take a reading above 200 to act as a possible reversal point
2012-11-02 16:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we haven't looked back since we got the 205 reading on September 14th
2012-11-02 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2012-11-02 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-11-02 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's something in which it's going to take some time to build a platform
2012-11-02 16:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we discussed yesterday
2012-11-02 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having non divergent structures in many of the MCO's
2012-11-02 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tells us that there needs to be some additional back and forth before the ladder is able to stand on its own
2012-11-02 16:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2012-11-02 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to hold any weight that climbs it
2012-11-02 16:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this probably won't take away from the more positive construction we have in the MID, for example
2012-11-02 16:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about yesterday
2012-11-02 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until there is enough energy to overcome trader resistance
2012-11-02 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this energy will come only if we take out the October highs
2012-11-02 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the bears have control
2012-11-02 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if we do see a rally of some kind next week
2012-11-02 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will probably only be one of relief only
2012-11-02 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once exhausted
2012-11-02 16:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll continue to play this game of back and forth until we have enough stability to launch from
2012-11-02 16:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...maybe another two weeks
2012-11-02 16:26:36 [Message] hkk -> Chat: is it still unlikely that we will trend down?
2012-11-02 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me answer that question with a question
2012-11-02 16:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that in order to trend
2012-11-02 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there must be texture in the MCO pattern in the direction of this same movement in order for this to happen
2012-11-02 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we discussed that the October highs would need to be taken out yesterday
2012-11-02 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for prices to trend lower
2012-11-02 16:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you suppose will need to happen in order for this to take place?
2012-11-02 16:28:40 [Message] hkk -> Chat: take out the MCO low
2012-11-02 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2012-11-02 16:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is because...
2012-11-02 16:28:58 [Message] hkk -> Chat: but wouldn't that come with a massive price decay
2012-11-02 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on many of the MCO structures...
2012-11-02 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not necessarily
2012-11-02 16:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could
2012-11-02 16:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have just now moved from a side of power moving one way to the other (the zero line)
2012-11-02 16:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have already seen constructive evidence with the MID and SML that suggests that in order to see real price decay "EVERYTHING" must be moving as one cohesive body in this same direction
2012-11-02 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not happening right now
2012-11-02 16:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2012-11-02 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you pointed out yesterday
2012-11-02 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume MCO's have already taken out their October highs?
2012-11-02 16:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that has occurred
2012-11-02 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the very next technical expectation after this kind of work would be....?
2012-11-02 16:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rest
2012-11-02 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pause
2012-11-02 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likely
2012-11-02 16:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback to or toward the zero line
2012-11-02 16:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, I haven't seen the volume data as yet
2012-11-02 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll deconstruct that in a couple of minutes after I finish off a quick review of the breadth MCO's
2012-11-02 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also pulled back today
2012-11-02 16:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices got very close to showing divergence here
2012-11-02 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but close only counts in horseshoes :)
2012-11-02 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another sharp reversal...this time with the MID breadth MCO and its components
2012-11-02 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we remain in a constructive formation
2012-11-02 16:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually what you'll find when the market is in the process of creating a low
2012-11-02 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it will hammer away in attempting to get the majority of traders to sell (or buy) stock so that those who wish to sell (or buy) will do so...but have been unwilling to do so
2012-11-02 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually this has the background of news events that provide an emotional outlet to justify this behavior
2012-11-02 16:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Sandy and the Election, for example
2012-11-02 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest
2012-11-02 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market was probably going to have a weak day anyway
2012-11-02 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the jobs numbers came out better than expected, and futures only moved up minimally
2012-11-02 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we knew that we needed continued buying here to have a chance to take out the October highs
2012-11-02 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that maybe more than half of traders are still not working in New York
2012-11-02 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't likely that today was going to have the necessary strength to provide this kind of breakout
2012-11-02 16:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it should be duly noted as well
2012-11-02 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that today's decline in the major averages only came with negative breadth plurality of just over 2:1
2012-11-02 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not what I would call conviction
2012-11-02 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like buyers withdrew their asks
2012-11-02 16:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just decayed throughout the day
2012-11-02 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as being evened up (at the zero line) between buyers and sellers
2012-11-02 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who did step up...took control
2012-11-02 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2012-11-02 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears still haven't shown any backbone to speak of
2012-11-02 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until that's been proven otherwise
2012-11-02 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today may had been just a reaction to Thursday's action
2012-11-02 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: choppy behavior
2012-11-02 16:41:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is what the MCO and MCSUM's have been forecasting for about 2-3 weeks now
2012-11-02 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's important that we allow the market to digest and then provide direction
2012-11-02 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of the MCO's moving above their zero lines on Thursday
2012-11-02 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were those who probably bought into the rally only to be disappointed
2012-11-02 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today...?
2012-11-02 16:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be equal and opposite come Monday
2012-11-02 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or maybe there will be enough follow through so that we'll likely move to the next 250 multiple support level
2012-11-02 16:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-11-02 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this weekend is going to be a hard one for those who live in the New York area
2012-11-02 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: UPS and FED EX began moving shipments today in Manhattan
2012-11-02 16:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good for business
2012-11-02 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the subways are still not running
2012-11-02 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and
2012-11-02 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now hearing stories of civil unrest breaking out
2012-11-02 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: under conditions like this
2012-11-02 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where emotions run high
2012-11-02 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there may not be a reasonable forecast to make
2012-11-02 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOWEVER
2012-11-02 16:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is simple
2012-11-02 16:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets are indecisive here
2012-11-02 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with more and more of a bearish bias
2012-11-02 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the NYSE composite MCSUM though is still well above its zero line
2012-11-02 16:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of the market trending lower are still low
2012-11-02 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that as of yesterday
2012-11-02 16:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10's were suggesting the selling is still overdone on a 10 day moving average basis
2012-11-02 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking around the price charts today
2012-11-02 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we haven't broken to new lows...yet
2012-11-02 16:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just retraced what was made the day before
2012-11-02 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we talk about backing and filling
2012-11-02 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very much like a bulldozer digging out a path
2012-11-02 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then backing and filling the prior hole just created
2012-11-02 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we got today
2012-11-02 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a market that isn't ready as yet to support an advancing trend
2012-11-02 16:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but washed out enough where a declining trend is not an option either
2012-11-02 16:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so...
2012-11-02 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we chop
2012-11-02 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take the MID for example
2012-11-02 16:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short term trend of money flow is showing higher bottoms suggesting that with each sell off less money is leaving this basket of stocks
2012-11-02 16:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on an intermediate term basis, although soft, much of the price decline is not showing much in the way of expansion in this same direction
2012-11-02 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between the two
2012-11-02 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when one trend is trending one way
2012-11-02 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other moving the other
2012-11-02 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are only likely to be pulled and pushed back and forth
2012-11-02 16:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until finally
2012-11-02 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both trends are in agreement
2012-11-02 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only then will prices be able to trend
2012-11-02 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line resistance as well on both the SML breadth MCO and the TM breadth MCO's
2012-11-02 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so...
2012-11-02 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we said yesterday
2012-11-02 16:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there continues to be constructive signs the the markets are in the process of attempting to create a foundational low so that prices can build on this same foundation
2012-11-02 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...
2012-11-02 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is still some work to do before this will be successful in its attempt to do so
2012-11-02 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's
2012-11-02 16:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE volume MCO
2012-11-02 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we can see that we're well out of sync here with breadth
2012-11-02 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where breadth moved above the zero line yesterday
2012-11-02 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume MCO is nowhere near even challenging its zero line
2012-11-02 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so...
2012-11-02 16:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then expect a reset
2012-11-02 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that both can, in fact, attempt to move in tandem with each other
2012-11-02 16:55:48 [Message] hkk -> Chat: does the volume MCO making lower lows in late October mean something?
2012-11-02 16:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the volume MCO is concerned
2012-11-02 16:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its interpretation differs with the breadth MCO in the areas of divergence
2012-11-02 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually when we see a pattern low
2012-11-02 16:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the volume MCO can, and does, create a flag point in the pattern
2012-11-02 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2012-11-02 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a point in which we have seller capitulation
2012-11-02 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a bad thing if we do get divergence
2012-11-02 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not actually necessary to see this occur
2012-11-02 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would be an important ingredient with the breadth MCO's
2012-11-02 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in the case of the October lows
2012-11-02 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was the point of maximum selling in this basket of stocks on a trending basis
2012-11-02 16:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here
2012-11-02 16:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have a divergent structure in place
2012-11-02 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but none of this means anything until there is enough energy in the opposite direction to counter this sell off
2012-11-02 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the space shuttle
2012-11-02 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gravity is going to keep the vehicle from lifting off from the ground
2012-11-02 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is a constant force
2012-11-02 17:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until an equal and opposite force is applied
2012-11-02 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can only then move against this same force
2012-11-02 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further it moves away from the force
2012-11-02 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less amount of energy is needed to keep it from falling back to earth
2012-11-02 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in order for the market to BUILD from this "keystone" point seen in October
2012-11-02 17:01:05 [Message] hkk -> Chat: in mid October, we made higher highs in the MCO's but prices decayed lower
2012-11-02 17:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will need to break above the resistance points that contain this same price structure
2012-11-02 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: true...but it wasn't enough of a thrust to break above the level of overhead resistance
2012-11-02 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices did move to higher highs though
2012-11-02 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so just moving above or below the zero line doesn't necessarily mean that there's enough force to break through a wall
2012-11-02 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: example
2012-11-02 17:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're driving your car
2012-11-02 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you see that you have a metal gate in front of you
2012-11-02 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to break through the gate
2012-11-02 17:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you must apply enough speed so that the vehicle can break through and not merely crash into it
2012-11-02 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have seen in movies and TV
2012-11-02 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if a car is only going 30 miles an hour
2012-11-02 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely to break through the gate
2012-11-02 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 30 miles an hour would be a +30 on the MCO
2012-11-02 17:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you get to 50 miles an hour
2012-11-02 17:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a +50 on the MCO
2012-11-02 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your chances of breaking through increase that much more
2012-11-02 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so just moving above or below the zero line isn't everything
2012-11-02 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is always going to be battles within the price pattern structure that must also be considered
2012-11-02 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-11-02 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if a price pattern is trending
2012-11-02 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will have counter trend moves as the pattern moves forward and rests
2012-11-02 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these rest periods are contained within the bigger trend
2012-11-02 17:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as there isn't enough energy to break, or violate, these same lines of resistance or support
2012-11-02 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2012-11-02 17:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any follow up questions?
2012-11-02 17:06:47 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so the MCO trend since September is down?
2012-11-02 17:07:02 [Message] hkk -> Chat: declining tops line can be drawn
2012-11-02 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's back up a bit
2012-11-02 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the speed in which money is moving in or out of the market on a short term trending basis
2012-11-02 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're driving in your car
2012-11-02 17:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is your speedometer
2012-11-02 17:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCO is above the zero line
2012-11-02 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's showing that money is moving into the market at a certain velocity
2012-11-02 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for example
2012-11-02 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are at a full stop
2012-11-02 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that full stop is the zero line
2012-11-02 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you put your foot down on the gas pedal
2012-11-02 17:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you move forward
2012-11-02 17:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more energy you produce
2012-11-02 17:09:15 [Message] hkk -> Chat: no real signs of stepping on the gas in October
2012-11-02 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the further the car will go even if you take your foot off the accelerator
2012-11-02 17:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2012-11-02 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you already that happen in September
2012-11-02 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take this idea a step further
2012-11-02 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the NYSE volume MCO as an example
2012-11-02 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like it peaked out at around a +80
2012-11-02 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you're in your car
2012-11-02 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you got that puppy up to 80 miles an hour
2012-11-02 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the chart further
2012-11-02 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the MCO suddenly moved lower
2012-11-02 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be like you taking off your foot of the accelerator at 80 miles an hour
2012-11-02 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're on a straight road with no stop lights or stop signs
2012-11-02 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you let the car continue on its own momentum
2012-11-02 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will still move forward for quite a bit of length before it will finally slow enough to where your forward progress will stop
2012-11-02 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw this happen, to a point, into the September price top
2012-11-02 17:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what also happened with the MCO after we moved to 80 miles an hour and took our foot off?
2012-11-02 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we slowed to a stop (the zero line)
2012-11-02 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we threw the vehicle back into reverse
2012-11-02 17:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moved at 70 mph!
2012-11-02 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in essence
2012-11-02 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the two thrusts
2012-11-02 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that both are about equal
2012-11-02 17:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is little net progress (in prices)
2012-11-02 17:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since there was more distance created by the forward push to 80
2012-11-02 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this countered the backward push to 70...and why we basically moved sideways
2012-11-02 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then continuing on
2012-11-02 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the MCO stayed pretty much below the zero line (in reverse) since that time
2012-11-02 17:15:10 [Message] hkk -> Chat: but now we are running out of momentum
2012-11-02 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so...
2012-11-02 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slowly we continue to move in this same direction
2012-11-02 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but without the thrust
2012-11-02 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will only pick up territory more slowly (price decay)
2012-11-02 17:15:52 [Message] hkk -> Chat: prices will come down
2012-11-02 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..they have the opportunity to do this, yes
2012-11-02 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the balance of energy is moving in this same direction
2012-11-02 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2012-11-02 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need more thrust in the reverse direction
2012-11-02 17:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to move BEYOND our original starting point
2012-11-02 17:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE volume MCSUM
2012-11-02 17:17:02 [Message] hkk -> Chat: if no thrust is provided, prices will eventually come down due to gravity
2012-11-02 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we are only now moving beyond this same starting point
2012-11-02 17:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-11-02 17:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if I would mix the space shuttle and car analogies together
2012-11-02 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2012-11-02 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are at a point in which a trend can NOW be created to the downside
2012-11-02 17:18:08 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so if we see the MCO fail to move above 0 and the summation continue to collapse like this, prices can't advance
2012-11-02 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the word collapse would only apply if we start to see greater post expansion to the downside
2012-11-02 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to answer you question in general
2012-11-02 17:19:05 [Message] hkk -> Chat: drifting lower
2012-11-02 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the short term and intermediate term positions of both analytical tools remain on one side of the zero line at the same time
2012-11-02 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a better than even chance that a (down) trend can be created
2012-11-02 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NOW
2012-11-02 17:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said
2012-11-02 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is one more very important component in all this that needs to be addressed
2012-11-02 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is the data that is being measured by these same tools
2012-11-02 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is the A/D or U/D line positions within these trending context
2012-11-02 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the MCO measures the SPEED in which this money flow component, as measured by the A/D line, is moving
2012-11-02 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM measures the DISTANCE, or velocity, that is created by this same speed quotient
2012-11-02 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-11-02 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NYAD line is rising on a longer term basis
2012-11-02 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the speed of money leaving is not too fast
2012-11-02 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the velocity of this same money flow is not showing a trend in this same money flow component
2012-11-02 17:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it would be a corrective process
2012-11-02 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is what we continue to be working with
2012-11-02 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the NAAD
2012-11-02 17:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it's in a down trend
2012-11-02 17:23:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is reflected by the amplitude difference between the NASDAQ/NDX breadth MCSUM's positions and that of the NYA
2012-11-02 17:23:51 [Message] hkk -> Chat: NYAD moving sideways
2012-11-02 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX is at -500 on the breadth side
2012-11-02 17:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE is about +300
2012-11-02 17:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a tell of two markets
2012-11-02 17:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you think about it for a moment
2012-11-02 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who continue to be bearish here are using, almost strictly, information coming from the NASDAQ
2012-11-02 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not much from the NYSE
2012-11-02 17:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: picking and choosing is part of the game
2012-11-02 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in here
2012-11-02 17:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know
2012-11-02 17:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that unless it's "all for one and one for all" we're likely correcting excesses that have come before (either up or down)
2012-11-02 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's an important context
2012-11-02 17:25:53 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so the NAAD is not leading lower?
2012-11-02 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why it's kept us from following the crowd in being uber bearish over the last year
2012-11-02 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is...
2012-11-02 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the combo chart
2012-11-02 17:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2012-11-02 17:27:02 [Message] hkk -> Chat: impending crash talks or at least a lot of large price decline talks are popping up
2012-11-02 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2012-11-02 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what you want with a divergent low, no?
2012-11-02 17:29:22 [Message] hkk -> Chat: yeah
2012-11-02 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2012-11-02 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is working its magic
2012-11-02 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we move to lower price lows today?
2012-11-02 17:29:45 [Message] hkk -> Chat: no
2012-11-02 17:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it "felt" like it
2012-11-02 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-11-02 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is part of backing and filling
2012-11-02 17:30:09 [Message] hkk -> Chat: sure did, trend down day
2012-11-02 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a rally failure
2012-11-02 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing more
2012-11-02 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why?
2012-11-02 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2012-11-02 17:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the breadth side at or above the MCO zero line
2012-11-02 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the volume side nowhere near
2012-11-02 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth participation is great
2012-11-02 17:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if there's no backbone to it, in relation to volume, it means nothing
2012-11-02 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NAAD chart - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat12/naad110212.png
2012-11-02 17:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: compare that to the NYAD chart - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat12/nyad110212.png
2012-11-02 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see the difference?
2012-11-02 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talk about all the time
2012-11-02 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless all of the market is moving in the same direction
2012-11-02 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're only likely to get choppy behavior
2012-11-02 17:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you look at the charts closely
2012-11-02 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the position of the 19 day and 39 day EMA's on both
2012-11-02 17:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the NAAD...the 19 day is leading the 39 day to the downside
2012-11-02 17:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the wider the separation between the two EMA's
2012-11-02 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the degree of velocity in this same direction
2012-11-02 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what the MCSUM measures
2012-11-02 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line in the MCSUM
2012-11-02 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the same thing as when both of these same EMA's are right on top of each other
2012-11-02 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no trend
2012-11-02 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NYAD
2012-11-02 17:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day is ABOVE the 39 day EMA
2012-11-02 17:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2012-11-02 17:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM should be on which side of the zero line?
2012-11-02 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, above it
2012-11-02 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as the MCSUM moves lower toward the zero line
2012-11-02 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that the distance between these two EMA's are narrowing
2012-11-02 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all
2012-11-02 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO tells us the SPEED in which these two EMA's are either moving towards or away from each other
2012-11-02 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components are these same EMA's
2012-11-02 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the 10% is above its zero line
2012-11-02 17:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA is moving higher
2012-11-02 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the 5% EMA is below its zero line
2012-11-02 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this EMA is moving lower
2012-11-02 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything you want to know about money flow, as measured by an A/D line or U/D line, is in the McClellan's
2012-11-02 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what you don't really know though
2012-11-02 17:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the position of the line itself
2012-11-02 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the components are lower
2012-11-02 17:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the MCSUM is below the zero line
2012-11-02 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way this can happen is if the A/D (or U/D) line itself is also trending south
2012-11-02 17:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flash from New Jersey...
2012-11-02 17:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Governor has now put everyone on Odd/Even rationing for gas
2012-11-02 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shades of the 1970's!
2012-11-02 17:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2012-11-02 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does this help in understanding the tools a bit more?
2012-11-02 17:41:34 [Message] hkk -> Chat: yes, the NAAD looks quite bearish
2012-11-02 17:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is...as money continues to move out of this basket of stocks
2012-11-02 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why those who are crying crash are looking only at the NASDAQ
2012-11-02 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when you see this
2012-11-02 17:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could ask them about the buoyancy in the NYSE
2012-11-02 17:42:06 [Message] hkk -> Chat: based on the NAAD alone, it's time to board the bear bus and strap in
2012-11-02 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that is a market of secondary stocks
2012-11-02 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2012-11-02 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Mid Caps are not in agreement
2012-11-02 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there are NASDAQ stocks in the Mid Caps
2012-11-02 17:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the SML
2012-11-02 17:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at this way
2012-11-02 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the inception of the NASDAQ in 1972
2012-11-02 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD line has been declining since that beginning
2012-11-02 17:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has never gone above its starting point but one time in 1973
2012-11-02 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: It's always declining
2012-11-02 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2012-11-02 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because those companies that trade on the NASDAQ don't have the qualifications to trade on the NYSE
2012-11-02 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are all a bet on the come that their business is going to be, one day, a NYSE stock
2012-11-02 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just need capitalization
2012-11-02 17:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens is one of three things
2012-11-02 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one...they are successful and usually jump to the NYSE
2012-11-02 17:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...up until MSFT and INTC found it to be "advantageous" to remain on the NASDAQ
2012-11-02 17:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the company grows to the level of incompetence
2012-11-02 17:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and stays within a certain cap
2012-11-02 17:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...they go out of business
2012-11-02 17:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so except for the top 100
2012-11-02 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest usually don't stay around too long or stagnant
2012-11-02 17:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bears
2012-11-02 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's an easy target
2012-11-02 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2012-11-02 17:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always looking bad
2012-11-02 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2012-11-02 17:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go back to the NAAD combo chart
2012-11-02 17:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that it continued to have problems moving above its longer term 200 day EMA
2012-11-02 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1% Trend
2012-11-02 17:47:09 [Message] hkk -> Chat: yes
2012-11-02 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually the only time it's able to move above this longer term trend is at the beginning of the 4 year cycle
2012-11-02 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe for only 2 years of the 4 (if lucky)
2012-11-02 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually it's only 18 months
2012-11-02 17:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-02 17:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the usual and customary 4 year business cycle is due to start in 2014
2012-11-02 17:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2012-11-02 17:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the secondaries should be weak for another 2 years
2012-11-02 17:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-02 17:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want to play the splits
2012-11-02 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could make good money betting one way with the secondaries
2012-11-02 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as money needs to find a home to be invested
2012-11-02 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you play the primaries on the upside
2012-11-02 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the mid 2000's
2012-11-02 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ and NYSE both rose together in 2002 and 2003
2012-11-02 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but split apart after 2004
2012-11-02 17:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the way it's always been
2012-11-02 17:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-11-02 17:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the MID and SML start to look crappy
2012-11-02 17:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't worry about a crash
2012-11-02 17:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and going by the recent Open 10's
2012-11-02 17:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of a decline from here is pretty low
2012-11-02 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this won't stop those who wish that it would crash continue to play that card
2012-11-02 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2012-11-02 17:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are the very same folks who have been crying crash now since...well..forever
2012-11-02 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why change now?
2012-11-02 17:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same people, right?
2012-11-02 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some go away and hide for a bit to lick their wounds
2012-11-02 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they all have their bias
2012-11-02 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there are those who you KNOW that when they come out to play bear
2012-11-02 17:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's at that time the market is usually bottoming
2012-11-02 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they ARE the great sentiment indicator
2012-11-02 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know who they are...every board has them
2012-11-02 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a time and place
2012-11-02 17:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until the market proves otherwise
2012-11-02 17:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me run through the rest of the data before I make a call
2012-11-02 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the lone slim exception of the NASDAQ volume MCO
2012-11-02 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the other volume MCO's did NOT move above their October highs as yet
2012-11-02 17:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we continue to correct
2012-11-02 17:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and therefore
2012-11-02 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a big surprise for the reversal today
2012-11-02 17:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's and STVO's are now neutral
2012-11-02 17:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2012-11-02 17:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's still have a bit to go to a wash out point...sans the Dow
2012-11-02 17:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.37
2012-11-02 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.24!
2012-11-02 17:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now testing the early October lows
2012-11-02 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move below that point would probably cap the correction in total
2012-11-02 17:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back of having already seen much of the price lows
2012-11-02 17:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.04
2012-11-02 17:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2012-11-02 17:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.18
2012-11-02 17:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2012-11-02 17:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-11-02 17:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we had a "shake the tree of the weak hands" kind of day today
2012-11-02 17:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back of a positive jobs report
2012-11-02 17:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the fear of how things are going to go over the weekend in New York
2012-11-02 17:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the upcoming election
2012-11-02 17:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the latest poll data is suggesting that it's going to be a statistical tie
2012-11-02 17:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless something gives here in the next couple of days
2012-11-02 17:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might want to prepare yourself for another long outcome
2012-11-02 17:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably around mid December
2012-11-02 18:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT is not going to be good news for traders
2012-11-02 18:00:32 [Message] hkk -> Chat: choppy market with a bearish bias or range-bound?
2012-11-02 18:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it might turn into August type trading while we wait
2012-11-02 18:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of depends
2012-11-02 18:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ would be choppy with a bearish bias
2012-11-02 18:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: range bound with a slight advantage to the bears for the NYSE
2012-11-02 18:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing that can't be overcome quickly
2012-11-02 18:01:43 [Message] hkk -> Chat: spx below 1400 might cause some panic?
2012-11-02 18:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NASDAQ, though, it's going to take a couple of weeks before we see enough stability to set a platform
2012-11-02 18:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think it's a "number" now
2012-11-02 18:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we're more on NEWS related auto pilot
2012-11-02 18:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where what we hear and see will determine trades for the next several days
2012-11-02 18:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not weeks
2012-11-02 18:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is still in an indecisive mode
2012-11-02 18:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as was the case yesterday when we were talking about waiting for a break above the October highs before we start getting bullish
2012-11-02 18:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to see new MCO lows before we can actually go bearish
2012-11-02 18:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deep breath in...
2012-11-02 18:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and exhale
2012-11-02 18:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is not likely to do anything worth trading for more than a couple of days here
2012-11-02 18:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's see how things look over the weekend with the cumulative charts and breadth data charts
2012-11-02 18:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the BETS was at a +5 last Friday
2012-11-02 18:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so cash is king for now
2012-11-02 18:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-02 18:05:26 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so the blueprint for the next several days is stay in cash?
2012-11-02 18:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would sit on my hands...yes
2012-11-02 18:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold longs with a appropriate stop
2012-11-02 18:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has changed
2012-11-02 18:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just try not to listen to calls of crashes and melt ups
2012-11-02 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are irresponsible
2012-11-02 18:06:33 [Message] hkk -> Chat: not a good idea to short the rallies?
2012-11-02 18:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (unless you have hard evidence that is consistent to something like happening)
2012-11-02 18:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't
2012-11-02 18:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there's no trend
2012-11-02 18:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes
2012-11-02 18:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no trade is the best one to make
2012-11-02 18:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one doesn't always have to be in the market
2012-11-02 18:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash is a position too! :)
2012-11-02 18:07:53 [Message] hkk -> Chat: so according to the internals, we do not have a near term price target
2012-11-02 18:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all about probability and outcome
2012-11-02 18:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2012-11-02 18:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all downside targets have been reached
2012-11-02 18:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all upside targets have either been reached or canceled
2012-11-02 18:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you think it's going one way
2012-11-02 18:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a 50/50 shot
2012-11-02 18:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I prefer better odds before making a trade
2012-11-02 18:09:01 [Message] hkk -> Chat: those are not good odds
2012-11-02 18:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but everyone has their own ways of trading
2012-11-02 18:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flip a coin
2012-11-02 18:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: throw a dart
2012-11-02 18:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2012-11-02 18:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market makes new price lows
2012-11-02 18:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO does not
2012-11-02 18:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you do?
2012-11-02 18:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you short?
2012-11-02 18:09:58 [Message] hkk -> Chat: no
2012-11-02 18:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you go long?
2012-11-02 18:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: careful
2012-11-02 18:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer is...it depends
2012-11-02 18:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to wait for the trigger for this same divergence to make a difference
2012-11-02 18:11:00 [Message] hkk -> Chat: maybe a small speculative position, although it would be tempting to make a larger bet
2012-11-02 18:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the October MCO highs, for example :)
2012-11-02 18:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2012-11-02 18:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are not in your favor
2012-11-02 18:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're at the Black Jack table
2012-11-02 18:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have an ace
2012-11-02 18:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the dealer also has an Ace
2012-11-02 18:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you hit or stay?
2012-11-02 18:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or call insurance
2012-11-02 18:12:03 [Message] hkk -> Chat: one must be patient
2012-11-02 18:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2012-11-02 18:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very easy to get excited
2012-11-02 18:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market wants you to do that
2012-11-02 18:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you miss the trade
2012-11-02 18:12:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be others
2012-11-02 18:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on YOUR terms
2012-11-02 18:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market goes down 300 points on Monday
2012-11-02 18:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what?
2012-11-02 18:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least THEN you know that a trend is underway
2012-11-02 18:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can wait for a pullback that usually comes right after
2012-11-02 18:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then position yourself then
2012-11-02 18:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it opens UP 300 points...
2012-11-02 18:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have no recourse
2012-11-02 18:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and your emotion will take you out of the trade
2012-11-02 18:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I have to run
2012-11-02 18:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we have 3 days next week
2012-11-02 18:14:10 [Message] hkk -> Chat: OK thanks
2012-11-02 18:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
2012-11-02 18:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can continue this conversation as well
2012-11-02 18:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are good questions Hoon...thanks for bringing them up!
2012-11-02 18:14:39 [Message] hkk -> Chat: thanks, take care
2012-11-02 18:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you too...and everyone else as well
2012-11-02 18:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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