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Posts: 4,883
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-21 16:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-11-21 16:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-21 16:00:58 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Hi
2011-11-21 16:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-11-21 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2011-11-21 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got what we were looking for after Thursday's technical breakdown
2011-11-21 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick move back up toward the 1225 area on Friday
2011-11-21 16:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a resumption
2011-11-21 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's no questions
2011-11-21 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-11-21 16:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after hesitating at the -50 level on Friday
2011-11-21 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved to lower lows today
2011-11-21 16:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of -85 which is deeply "oversold"
2011-11-21 16:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had both of the components move below their zero line today
2011-11-21 16:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we are on a confirmed sell signal now
2011-11-21 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have now taken out the late September and early October rising lows on this MCO
2011-11-21 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now in the process of creating a new "flag" from where we will measure any future divergences between this MCO and price
2011-11-21 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing for the bulls continuing to be that we should not approach, no less violate, the early August lows
2011-11-21 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if this happens
2011-11-21 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will get new downside price objectives for the NYA
2011-11-21 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably somewhere around the 2009 lows
2011-11-21 16:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM also gaped down and through its +500 level today
2011-11-21 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing the high amount of weakness that has recently moved into the market
2011-11-21 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern of the NYA itself shows a classic rounding top now
2011-11-21 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is part and parcel of many topping patterns in equities
2011-11-21 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they tend to make spike bottoms and these same rounding top formations
2011-11-21 16:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the ratio adjusted composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-11-21 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have also taken out our mid September lows here as well
2011-11-21 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: causing a reset to the pattern
2011-11-21 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2011-11-21 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: canceling ALL upside objectives and time targets given over the last 3-4 weeks
2011-11-21 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-11-21 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see a similar set up to last weeks common only data
2011-11-21 16:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% now below its zero line
2011-11-21 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% is just slightly below this same line of neutrality
2011-11-21 16:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now suggests some sort of reflex as soon as tomorrow to attempt to find near term support on this same zero line
2011-11-21 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also allow the 10% component to snap back to or towards its zero line during this time
2011-11-21 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart here
2011-11-21 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any snapback would only move us back to the 7250 level at this juncture
2011-11-21 16:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then another move lower should then be anticipated
2011-11-21 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Thursday
2011-11-21 16:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside target now is a challenge of the October lows
2011-11-21 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the MCO can hold above its August lows during this retest
2011-11-21 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should have all the ingredients in place for a possible double bottom
2011-11-21 16:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or what some refer to as a "W" bottom
2011-11-21 16:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-11-21 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO below its zero line
2011-11-21 16:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM still above its zero line
2011-11-21 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pulling and pushing effect between the two time frames should give us a choppy, sideways price pattern to work with for the short term...that of weeks
2011-11-21 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as far as the NYSE breadth MCSUM is concerned
2011-11-21 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should anticipate that we should be able to have a successful test of the rising bottoms line that can be drawn between the August and October lows
2011-11-21 16:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that line, as measured, comes in at around the -200 level
2011-11-21 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the thrust we have currently
2011-11-21 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also broke our divergent MCO pattern
2011-11-21 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our technical expectation now is for at least a test of this same rising bottoms line before we're likely to see a price pattern low
2011-11-21 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so taken together
2011-11-21 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO and the MCSUM can construct higher lows with the price pattern moving to slightly lower than the October 4th reversal lows
2011-11-21 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be again set for another opportunity for the bulls to take the market higher
2011-11-21 16:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that doesn't look like that may happen until the end of December now
2011-11-21 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: considering that we have December OPEX and year end selling ahead of us
2011-11-21 16:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll monitor things as we move along
2011-11-21 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be we might accelerate and get this correction out of the way on a quicker pace
2011-11-21 16:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or
2011-11-21 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might just be in for something more bearish
2011-11-21 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to tell after only the 3rd trading day after the break
2011-11-21 16:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully by next week we'll have a better handle on things
2011-11-21 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls should not get their hopes up here as the last Thursday's break was significant enough to where the market is now vulnerable to bad news
2011-11-21 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but luckily enough
2011-11-21 16:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remains highly liquid to absorb much of any punishment that might come about
2011-11-21 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2011-11-21 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just think how bad it would be if we didn't have high liquidity levels as we do now
2011-11-21 16:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the August decline
2011-11-21 16:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although..
2011-11-21 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that started from a lower, and a more divergent level in the MCSUM
2011-11-21 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2011-11-21 16:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last Tuesday
2011-11-21 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we MUST also be ready for the worse here just in case we just finished off a bull market signal given in 2009 as reflected by the MCSUM
2011-11-21 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-11-21 16:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Thursday
2011-11-21 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: caution is needed here
2011-11-21 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any profitable open positions should had been sold into the Friday bounce
2011-11-21 16:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any remaining positions probably stopped out today
2011-11-21 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though disappointing with the upside potential
2011-11-21 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now able to come back another day
2011-11-21 16:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and be able to sleep at night
2011-11-21 16:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though
2011-11-21 16:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still a bit too early to short the market in anything more than a near term basis because of the same positioning of the MCO and the MCSUM
2011-11-21 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so cash is nice...while we wait for our next move
2011-11-21 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pattern gap to the downside today on the NASDAQ composite
2011-11-21 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's an exhaustion gap, it should be filled tomorrow
2011-11-21 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's a measuring gap, it should only be partially filled tomorrow
2011-11-21 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looks like we have perceptively broken below the end September lows on the NASDAQ breadth MCO today
2011-11-21 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2011-11-21 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is just about to move down and through its zero line now
2011-11-21 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one of two things can happen here
2011-11-21 16:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first is that we get a strong reflex rally to slow, and ideally halt, the downside progress of the MCSUM at the zero line
2011-11-21 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounce off the zero line
2011-11-21 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move higher for a period of 3-4 trading days
2011-11-21 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then move down and through the zero line
2011-11-21 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of pattern is referred to as a "Summation Failure" pattern
2011-11-21 16:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the failure, in this case, is that the bulls were not able to get enough energy to move back above the +250 level
2011-11-21 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this failure leads to one more attempt to re-establish the prior uptrend
2011-11-21 16:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then collapses because of exhaustion
2011-11-21 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2011-11-21 16:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we move down and through the zero line
2011-11-21 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a "crash like" effect is felt as we see a sudden shift from a market that is buyer heavy to that of giving up
2011-11-21 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the possibility of a bull market completion pattern by the MCSUM in the NYSE
2011-11-21 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a real possibility here
2011-11-21 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should be looking for evidence to the contrary
2011-11-21 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a divergent MCO low for one
2011-11-21 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding support at the +250, zero line, and then the -250 level on the NYSE MCSUM as a another example
2011-11-21 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be these little things that will tell us how the market will likely react as we come close to finding balance between buyers and sellers again on an intermediate term basis as laid out by the MCSUM
2011-11-21 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions so far?
2011-11-21 16:34:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NASDAQ
2011-11-21 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more bullish scenario then
2011-11-21 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to slice through its zero line quickly
2011-11-21 16:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will act as a capitulation point for the market internals
2011-11-21 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and provide the thrust for us to challenge the October lows that much more quickly
2011-11-21 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should produce the same kind of acceleration in negative sentiment that would accompany a double bottom price pattern
2011-11-21 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bulls
2011-11-21 16:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't want too much short covering to come in here near term
2011-11-21 16:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is something that is likely to happen by the end of this week
2011-11-21 16:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE and NASDAQ MCO's
2011-11-21 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and applying a full stochastic to the pattern
2011-11-21 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can pop here at any moment
2011-11-21 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this will again be part of a necessary reflex to relieve the current "oversold" nature of the market internals
2011-11-21 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where another retest lower, to hopefully gain momentum divergence, would then be anticipated
2011-11-21 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2011-11-21 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now going to take 2-4 weeks before the market is once again able to construct a bottom strong enough where a rising price structure can be built on
2011-11-21 16:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we should expect sharp and quick short covering rallies here at any time during this construction process
2011-11-21 16:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing we should also discuss
2011-11-21 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the internals on the DAX and FTSE indices that were posted yesterday in the breadth reviews
2011-11-21 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-21 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of note here
2011-11-21 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the way the DAX breadth A/D line is leading prices to the downside now
2011-11-21 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this A/D line takes out its September lows
2011-11-21 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then expect the DAX index to follow money's lead to new lows as well
2011-11-21 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-21 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the FTSE
2011-11-21 16:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we more than likely broke below the rising bottoms line shown in orange today
2011-11-21 16:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the divergent October lows with it
2011-11-21 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a bullish event
2011-11-21 16:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-21 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this looks as though that money is going to be leaving these two major barometers of how the EU is economically in the future
2011-11-21 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there's enough selling
2011-11-21 16:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this "could" snowball into other global markets as liquidity will be needed to keep these same portfolios at a constant value
2011-11-21 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the disturbing thing of these past 3 days comes with gold
2011-11-21 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has been leading the sell off to the downside here
2011-11-21 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the same commodity that we talked about last Tuesday as to follow its leadership for stocks
2011-11-21 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, back then, we were looking for higher
2011-11-21 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now...keeping in mind that gold acts as a "savings account" for a rainy day for many portfolio managers
2011-11-21 16:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is certainly not a good thing to see this account being emptied over the last couple of days
2011-11-21 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-21 16:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I didn't know this going in
2011-11-21 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but spot gold had a bad day today
2011-11-21 16:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down another $44 today
2011-11-21 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now close to our triangle support area
2011-11-21 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-21 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the rising bottoms line comes in at around the $1630 level
2011-11-21 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should continue to watch the action here as a probable proxy for stocks short term
2011-11-21 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if gold is able to find support at its rising bottoms line
2011-11-21 16:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would increase the odds that the October price lows in stocks will hold
2011-11-21 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't...
2011-11-21 16:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-21 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next support for gold is around $1500
2011-11-21 16:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is where we had our starting point for the $400 2 month parabolic move seen in the summer
2011-11-21 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually what happens after parabolic moves terminate
2011-11-21 16:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they retrace back to their starting point
2011-11-21 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like a rising wedge pattern
2011-11-21 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2011-11-21 16:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have what looks like a measuring gap today
2011-11-21 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless this gap is filled promptly
2011-11-21 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pattern is looking like the mid way point of a 3rd wave down in the world of Elliott
2011-11-21 16:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the structure going into the decline isn't quite perfect
2011-11-21 16:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless, of course, it was a small series of 1's and 2's
2011-11-21 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have the NDX breadth MCO supporting this as being a 3rd wave down
2011-11-21 16:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with it moving to deeply "oversold" levels now
2011-11-21 16:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and actually flirting now with the all important August lows
2011-11-21 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to further support the bear case here
2011-11-21 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor
2011-11-21 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the NDX breadth MCSUM broke below its rising bottoms line last Friday
2011-11-21 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any near term snapback in the MCO at this juncture should be watched closely to what this will equate to prices rebounding themselves
2011-11-21 16:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, for example, the snapback in breadth plurality is flat to slightly positive
2011-11-21 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices are only able to partially close today's gap
2011-11-21 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to watch out for some sort of hard decline as a result
2011-11-21 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with volume levels being reduced over the next several days of holiday week which can accentuate such a decline
2011-11-21 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here to remember in all of this
2011-11-21 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we MUST continue to play any declines as hit and run affairs because of the current readings on the MCSUM's
2011-11-21 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there still isn't enough yet for the market to trend lower
2011-11-21 16:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's not to say we won't see something that could be near term scary event given the current backdrop of both the EU, Washington's folly of the Super Committee failing to have an agreement, and continued MF Global liquidation
2011-11-21 17:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this can and will make people panic without regard to what the internal physics of the market might be
2011-11-21 17:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we really don't have anything in history to really compare to the current time
2011-11-21 17:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so keep on your toes here
2011-11-21 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now highly "oversold" at the -100 level
2011-11-21 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we stretch the rubber band this far
2011-11-21 17:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likely outcome is for some sort of snapback to relieve this same pressure
2011-11-21 17:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-11-21 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the same situation here as we do with the composite NYSE breadth components
2011-11-21 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we should see some sort of reflex rally off of the 5% component zero line
2011-11-21 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have to remember
2011-11-21 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it gets harder and harder for breadth plurality to go more and more negative the deeper we go in the MCO
2011-11-21 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the likely expectation here as well is for some sort of bounce to relieve this same imbalance of selling pressure
2011-11-21 17:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the next move will be the all important one
2011-11-21 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that today's high MCO reading in the SPX has allowed the SPX breadth MCSUM to slice down and through its +750 level
2011-11-21 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we mentioned last week as being a character moment for the bulls to at least find some sort of support at this same level
2011-11-21 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we didn't
2011-11-21 17:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that suggests that the bulls are being overrun by sellers right now
2011-11-21 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should never underestimate the emotion of panic during such times
2011-11-21 17:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2011-11-21 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately
2011-11-21 17:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the high MCSUM reading here will tend to keep things from falling apart
2011-11-21 17:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or like many like to say - crash
2011-11-21 17:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-11-21 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rising bottoms line here comes in at around the +600 level
2011-11-21 17:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll keep a watchful eye on that level as a possible place for a pause in this current selling wave
2011-11-21 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this level is going to hold, however, we will need to see the internals reflex and now...otherwise the downside momentum will be too great to find this same support
2011-11-21 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the OEX
2011-11-21 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of situation here as well
2011-11-21 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCSUM moving down and through another 250 multiple today...the +1000 level
2011-11-21 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components suggest we should expect a bounce higher as soon as tomorrow
2011-11-21 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the blueprints we had last week
2011-11-21 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was for the sell off to continue until Tuesday
2011-11-21 17:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we would see our reflex into Wednesday and Friday's positive seasonality period
2011-11-21 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that looks like what we may get here
2011-11-21 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2011-11-21 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this is having its leadership from global markets...especially that of the EU
2011-11-21 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have be careful not to get too confident here without proof of such a technical bounce before hand
2011-11-21 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have turnaround Tuesday coming which could help in keeping us from seeing a reflex too soon
2011-11-21 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking the futures and they're slightly higher
2011-11-21 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but things seem to always change after Europe opens
2011-11-21 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...hard to trade technically when you have outside influences that can put the proverbial thumb on the scale
2011-11-21 17:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's what we have to work with
2011-11-21 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to the OEX breadth MCSUM
2011-11-21 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like the rising bottoms line here crosses at the +800 level
2011-11-21 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the Dow breadth MCSUM
2011-11-21 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +750 level
2011-11-21 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both being rather important in our analytical forecasts as well
2011-11-21 17:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gap down and through the +750 level as well on the MID breadth McSUM
2011-11-21 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll notice that it took the MID breadth MCO to move below its September lows to accomplish this
2011-11-21 17:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything here
2011-11-21 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets remain pretty much in sync
2011-11-21 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good in the sense that we'll not see too much in the way of intraday choppy behavior
2011-11-21 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the SML breadth MCO has been able to join the rest of the clan by perceptively moving below its September lows now
2011-11-21 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the general market continues to be in sync here
2011-11-21 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which "could" lead to a bearish trend lower
2011-11-21 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little too early to tell for sure
2011-11-21 17:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could happen here
2011-11-21 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the most troubling area for the bulls comes with the TM breadth MCSUM
2011-11-21 17:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it pulled up just short of the important +500 level
2011-11-21 17:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the July rally failure by the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-21 17:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a good sign moving forward for the bulls
2011-11-21 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-21 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our having followed through with the technical breakdown we had last Thursday
2011-11-21 17:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a full defensive position should continue at this time
2011-11-21 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would mean being in cash
2011-11-21 17:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as its still a bit early to trade with a downside move until we get enough evidence of a trend in that direction
2011-11-21 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can assume that there might be one coming given the various failures mentioned with the NYSE breadth MCSUM and the TM breadth MCSUM
2011-11-21 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're currently heavily "oversold" here
2011-11-21 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and due for some sort of relief or reflex move in an attempt to bring near term balance between sellers and buyers
2011-11-21 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with any bounce higher giving us the likely event of a momentum flag to work from
2011-11-21 17:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we either get that bounce
2011-11-21 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or after the bounce we get a successful retest of this same extreme
2011-11-21 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no assiduity to this extreme point in the MCO being momentum bottom of any kind
2011-11-21 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the expectation of one
2011-11-21 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep disciplined here
2011-11-21 17:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no chasing
2011-11-21 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the evidence here is that we're now likely to test the October price lows before we'll see enough stability to attempt another advancing price structure
2011-11-21 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions?
2011-11-21 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comments?
2011-11-21 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a quick review of the sector MCO's
2011-11-21 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we note that the technology sector, the XLK is now full on challenging its July lows here
2011-11-21 17:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that can't be good for the NASDAQ
2011-11-21 17:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have some near term divergence, and an inside range day, on the XLU
2011-11-21 17:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rest of the sector MCO's have moved to new lows here
2011-11-21 17:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the broad market is showing quite a bit of weakness
2011-11-21 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s some good news
2011-11-21 17:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's are once again suggesting a price bounce in the next two trading days again
2011-11-21 17:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now the STVO"s are now "oversold"
2011-11-21 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and between the two, this would compliment the idea of a near term bounce and some firmness for the rest of the week
2011-11-21 17:37:49 [Message] tracca -> Chat: since MCSUM's are at high levels, can we go choppy, sideways, make a base and rally?
2011-11-21 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call the VTO's on the north side of neutral now
2011-11-21 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a way
2011-11-21 17:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we need everything to work together
2011-11-21 17:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's are negative
2011-11-21 17:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's are positive but declining
2011-11-21 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the two then we're not able to trend lower until the MCSUM moves below its zero line along with the MCO's
2011-11-21 17:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then tend to give us a larger choppy price structure
2011-11-21 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: larger, then let's say, a smaller consolidation when the MCO and its components are out of whack
2011-11-21 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation here as we talked about on Thursday
2011-11-21 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of the range being 20 SPX's now 100 SPX points
2011-11-21 17:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCO pattern we have moving to new lows
2011-11-21 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would mean that we can continue to chop lower from here and find support at the October lows
2011-11-21 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then bounce higher
2011-11-21 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to of our upper range being the 1225 level
2011-11-21 17:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now 1275
2011-11-21 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this is more of a "bird's eye view" of things
2011-11-21 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe pull back to a 3 year time frame to see the rhythm of the pattern
2011-11-21 17:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since it's such a wide range
2011-11-21 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be a not only a tremendous amount of volatility with the pattern
2011-11-21 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there will be tremendous profit potential within the structure since the range is wide
2011-11-21 17:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's summarize for a moment
2011-11-21 17:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first...any upside objectives are now canceled
2011-11-21 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't have any new downside objectives at this point aside from a challenge of the October lows
2011-11-21 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so by that we're fairly confident that we're in a trading range
2011-11-21 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the recent selling has now pushed us to highly "oversold" levels
2011-11-21 17:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a reflex or relief rally should be anticipated as the internals try to find a way to return to some balance between both sides of the trade
2011-11-21 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be from there where our next likely entry point will be made as we look for a technical retest of today's (or tomorrow's...whatever) lows
2011-11-21 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market...
2011-11-21 17:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence
2011-11-21 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was doing just fine
2011-11-21 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the patient was recovering nicely for about a month
2011-11-21 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but started to show signs of fatigue two weeks ago
2011-11-21 17:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: felt a sharp pain last Wednesday
2011-11-21 17:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and had a set back on Thursday
2011-11-21 17:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back on life support
2011-11-21 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the answer to your question is
2011-11-21 17:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get both the short term and intermediate term trends agreeing with each other
2011-11-21 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in either direction
2011-11-21 17:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are likely to tend to chop
2011-11-21 17:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the two sides battle for position
2011-11-21 17:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer term trader is starting to lose their confidence now
2011-11-21 17:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the short term trader has finished up throwing the baby out with the bath water
2011-11-21 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then have to hope that he doesn't throw out the tub as well
2011-11-21 17:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we won't know that for another week
2011-11-21 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.47
2011-11-21 17:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.24
2011-11-21 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and testing the October lows
2011-11-21 17:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-11-21 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN will usually make a lower low when we get closer to the final capitulation point in a pattern
2011-11-21 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are already diverging (so far) on the volatility index's by a wide margin so far
2011-11-21 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can start to collect ourselves in and around this area
2011-11-21 17:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go for a successful test of the October lows
2011-11-21 17:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep the VIX from making new highs
2011-11-21 17:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and get the Open 10 to make new lows
2011-11-21 17:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then get sentiment so bearish that even the most die hearted bull gives up on their analysis
2011-11-21 17:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be as solid of a bottom that we can have
2011-11-21 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (from my lips...)
2011-11-21 17:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: darn
2011-11-21 17:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .80 (traders trying to pick a bottom)
2011-11-21 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Open 10 is now fully "oversold" at 1.14
2011-11-21 17:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting real close now to major structural low territory
2011-11-21 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.03
2011-11-21 17:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  Open 10 at 1.17
2011-11-21 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: highly "oversold"
2011-11-21 17:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-21 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on one hand the bulls seem to be struggling for their lives here
2011-11-21 17:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand we're now getting indications that, unlike the quick reversal bottom we got with the October 4th lows, any successful test of those same lows could be the kind of price bottom that we were talking about looking for back in the August/September time period as far as the VIX and TRIN numbers are concerned
2011-11-21 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2011-11-21 17:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I remember correctly
2011-11-21 17:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and please correct me if I'm wrong
2011-11-21 17:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but isn't there a major Hurst cycle bottom due in the second or third week of December?
2011-11-21 17:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wish Doc were here
2011-11-21 17:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me quickly scan the message moment
2011-11-21 17:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not seeing anything
2011-11-21 17:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I seem to remember Doc mentioning it
2011-11-21 17:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll shoot him off an e-mail on this later
2011-11-21 17:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-11-21 17:59:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you for your time and efforts
2011-11-21 17:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2011-11-21 17:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a tough market
2011-11-21 18:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of storm clouds
2011-11-21 18:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...remember the usual time tomorrow
2011-11-21 18:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we're off for the rest of the week
2011-11-21 18:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there's nothing else
2011-11-21 18:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great night
2011-11-21 18:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see if we have any further clues tomorrow
2011-11-21 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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