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Posts: 5,093
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-11-20 16:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-11-20 16:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-11-20 16:00:27 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: great thanks...and you?
2014-11-20 16:01:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great as well
2014-11-20 16:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...rushing around like usual [tongue]
2014-11-20 16:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how come days go by so fast when you get older and not when you were waiting for the 3:00 bell in school?
2014-11-20 16:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-11-20 16:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and I have absolutely no clue on what the market did today)
2014-11-20 16:03:25 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: When we get to XLV could we look at
2014-11-20 16:03:57 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Monday and Today being a Range Trading
2014-11-20 16:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2014-11-20 16:04:25 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: trading days
2014-11-20 16:04:55 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Monday's go long and Wed short
2014-11-20 16:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gotcha
2014-11-20 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll look at that when we get there
2014-11-20 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2014-11-20 16:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get SC up and get crackin'
2014-11-20 16:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving down and through the zero line on Wednesday
2014-11-20 16:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO popped back up above this same line today
2014-11-20 16:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this provided a slightly new higher high in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 16:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-11-20 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see this MCO move back above Tuesday's high point
2014-11-20 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to be on guard that we might have another challenge of the zero line coming before we'll be able to break free of any weight of this month's OPEX
2014-11-20 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice too how the 10% Trend bounced right off the 5% Trend today in the CO components
2014-11-20 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all...still in a corrective sequence internally
2014-11-20 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while prices in the NYA closed near the highs of the day
2014-11-20 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too we will need to see upside follow through by Monday or the current pattern can move back and test the 10,850 level
2014-11-20 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that looks like the maximum downside risk at this time
2014-11-20 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-11-20 16:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also bounced higher after having dunked its head under the zero line on Wednesday
2014-11-20 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the CO MCO
2014-11-20 16:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will need to push this indicator back above Tuesday's high before the all out assault of the all time price highs
2014-11-20 16:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too the MCO components remain well above their zero lines
2014-11-20 16:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would indicate that we're just chopping along waiting for money to push prices one way or the other
2014-11-20 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-11-20 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that after moving below the zero line on Wednesday
2014-11-20 16:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we did today was see an obligatory snapback to this same demarcation line between positive and negative market behavior
2014-11-20 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2014-11-20 16:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ Composite itself closed very near the highs of the day
2014-11-20 16:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NASDAQ components remain above their zero line
2014-11-20 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...we're looking for some sponsorship
2014-11-20 16:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is snapping back to what was the highs of early September
2014-11-20 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what could be called an "inverted ledge" pattern
2014-11-20 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing about ledges
2014-11-20 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that they trace out very near the termination point of a MCSUM sequence
2014-11-20 16:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they also tend to last a maximum of four trading days
2014-11-20 16:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today is trading day number 4
2014-11-20 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCO back at the zero line
2014-11-20 16:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control of the pattern
2014-11-20 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interestingly enough this is happening at November OPEX
2014-11-20 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news there is that we should have clarity by Monday
2014-11-20 16:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...we're at a point of indecision...with a slight bullish bias
2014-11-20 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO bounced right off its zero line today
2014-11-20 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now has a reading of +9
2014-11-20 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reaction highs of Tuesday are still a bit a ways from current levels though at around the +25 area
2014-11-20 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX breadth MCSUM is hitting its head at horizontal resistance at the +1200 level
2014-11-20 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too...a point to make a statement is upon us for the bulls if they're going to maintain and further control the direction of prices
2014-11-20 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much better price action in the SPX
2014-11-20 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we tested the 2040 level again today
2014-11-20 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then closed at the highest levels in history
2014-11-20 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a bullish indication that the current consolidation has had a successful test
2014-11-20 16:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see upside follow through as soon as Friday
2014-11-20 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see this strength internally as the SPX breadth MCO has yet to approach its zero line
2014-11-20 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today at a +21
2014-11-20 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this series of consecutive closes above the MCO zero line continues to drive the SPX breadth MCSUM to higher highs
2014-11-20 16:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today with a +1081 reading
2014-11-20 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should now look for our next area of possible resistance at the +1250 level
2014-11-20 16:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so indications here is that we should see another thrust type move to the upside in the SPX in the next 2 trading days
2014-11-20 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any take out of Tuesday's high point in the MCO allowing prices to challenge the 2100 level
2014-11-20 16:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's also watch the SPX breadth MCSUM as it approaches its 52 week highs
2014-11-20 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any break above this resistance probably enough to give us the "all clear" to our ultimate longer term price target of 2250
2014-11-20 16:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-11-20 16:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see our first down close today
2014-11-20 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it was a small point change
2014-11-20 16:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably a direct result of Friday's option's settlement
2014-11-20 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be pointed out that not only did the OEX close at new all time highs today
2014-11-20 16:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but did so at the top of today's trading range
2014-11-20 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving us another example that the path of least resistance remains to the upside
2014-11-20 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well in the Dow breadth MCO
2014-11-20 16:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a new all time high close in prices
2014-11-20 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the Dow breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 16:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it is now up to its next area of natural resistance at the +1500 level
2014-11-20 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we'll either find it hard going near term
2014-11-20 16:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we'll burst above this level without too much of a struggle
2014-11-20 16:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MID index closed as its highs of the day
2014-11-20 16:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MID breadth MCO was able to move back above its zero line
2014-11-20 16:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing once again that when the MCSUM is above the +500 level
2014-11-20 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any kind of buying is apt to push prices in this same direction without a lot of "weighting" behind it
2014-11-20 16:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to check something
2014-11-20 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: missed by .26
2014-11-20 16:32:54 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Weighting?
2014-11-20 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was checking to see if today's close was higher than the one we had two weeks ago
2014-11-20 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-11-20 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nearly every index is weighted
2014-11-20 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes you don't need the heavier weights, or the combined strength of all of the components, to move in one direction or the other
2014-11-20 16:33:54 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right thanks for explaining
2014-11-20 16:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it primarily rests with the amount of liquidity that is available at the time of the bounce
2014-11-20 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the thought on the MID
2014-11-20 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would appear now that with today's higher close above the high water mark of the entire price consolidation
2014-11-20 16:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there is a very good chance that this was a kick off day to the upside out of this same high level pause
2014-11-20 16:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it is
2014-11-20 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see the Monday
2014-11-20 16:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that there is a direct relationship between moving out of this price consolidation and the MID MCO moving above Tuesday's highs
2014-11-20 16:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as without this extra push by money
2014-11-20 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the consolidation would continue
2014-11-20 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to help identify a breakout to that of a potential failure
2014-11-20 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both internal and external much compliment each other
2014-11-20 16:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID that's kind of hard to do on an intraday basis as far as breadth plurality is concerned
2014-11-20 16:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you use the broader indication of the NYAD line, that should suffice in trying to find this same confirmation from which you can trade off of
2014-11-20 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-11-20 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it definitely remains below its zero line
2014-11-20 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the best we can say is that it did snapback toward its zero line today
2014-11-20 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more important is that
2014-11-20 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did move above Tuesday's MCO highs in this effort
2014-11-20 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is one of those whispers that suggest that not only are we likely to move up to the zero line itself near term
2014-11-20 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we will likely move up and through this same zero line in the next couple of days
2014-11-20 16:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: allowing for, of course, a full snapback to the MCO zero line
2014-11-20 16:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pullback from this same line on Monday
2014-11-20 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then thrusting higher by the middle part of next week
2014-11-20 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that the SML components ARE above their respective zero lines
2014-11-20 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any benefit of any doubt right now is for an upside surprise in the small caps
2014-11-20 16:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are in the 4th trading day of our pullback as well
2014-11-20 16:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see some sort of decision by traders on which direction to here by the time we meet up again on Monday
2014-11-20 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me
2014-11-20 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-11-20 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next chats are Monday and Tuesday next week
2014-11-20 16:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a full week off
2014-11-20 16:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the Wilshire 5000
2014-11-20 16:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we also see a bounce with the TM breadth MCO
2014-11-20 16:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too remains below Tuesday's high point
2014-11-20 16:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see some sort of resolution here in the next two trading days
2014-11-20 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-20 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the plan for this week for a sideways market
2014-11-20 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we pretty much got what we were looking for
2014-11-20 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are now indications though that this pause to refresh is about to end
2014-11-20 16:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the large caps suggesting that any near term surprises that we may see into this OPEX period will be to the upside
2014-11-20 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLY breadth MCO
2014-11-20 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to see tremendous money flow support
2014-11-20 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this MCO has remained above the +50 level now for about a month now
2014-11-20 16:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to no one's surprise
2014-11-20 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is pushing prices into new all time high territory now
2014-11-20 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside
2014-11-20 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got a chuckle earlier in the week when I was reading about this XLY/XLP ratio nonsense
2014-11-20 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thinking to myself if any of the folks who pointed this out really looked at the chart action before bringing this point to the table they would feel somewhat embarrassed bringing it up
2014-11-20 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-11-20 16:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just by looking at the XLY breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 16:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the tremendous amount of money moving into this sector over the last month
2014-11-20 16:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this point
2014-11-20 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take the better part of the rest of this year to see any indications of a tradable top in this index
2014-11-20 16:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so long and strong remains the forecast there
2014-11-20 16:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's actually amazing how strong this sector is
2014-11-20 16:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially at this time of the year
2014-11-20 16:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this, more than likely, is a direct correlation to fuel prices collapsing over the last several months
2014-11-20 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...just noticed that the XLY breadth MCSUM has now moved some 1750+ data point on this move
2014-11-20 16:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's very strong
2014-11-20 16:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this pattern is what you want to see to know if prices are trending or not
2014-11-20 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very little post congestion at all
2014-11-20 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...none at all since mid October
2014-11-20 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up 11% from that same low point
2014-11-20 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2014-11-20 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2014-11-20 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP is also up 10.25% since the mid October lows
2014-11-20 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while its MCSUM is now high enough where the air becomes a little thin at these levels
2014-11-20 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why the XLP breadth MCO shows a test of its zero line at the current time
2014-11-20 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a strong buy here
2014-11-20 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the caveat that any move below the MCO zero line would switch that to a hold given that the XLP MCO components remain well above their zero lines
2014-11-20 16:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the action in the XLE continues to suggest that we're pounding out a tradable bottom here
2014-11-20 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's price bar breaking to the upside of a consolidation pattern with a slight upside angle to it
2014-11-20 16:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2014-11-20 16:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any move back above the $88 level, with preferably expanding volume, would be a trigger point for a long here
2014-11-20 16:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2014-11-20 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that during this past week
2014-11-20 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crude moved to 4 year lows
2014-11-20 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still prices in this ETF were moving higher
2014-11-20 16:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least the bid was showing a lot of buoyancy
2014-11-20 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually means
2014-11-20 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are no more sellers
2014-11-20 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-11-20 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the upside expansion gap today in the XLE breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a move above $88 as soon as Friday
2014-11-20 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2014-11-20 16:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got a crossover buy signal today on the XLE components
2014-11-20 16:59:14 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: S. Triangle on Price?
2014-11-20 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's give this sector a buy
2014-11-20 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe an ascending triangle
2014-11-20 16:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the volume
2014-11-20 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we had a wash out at $85.34 last week
2014-11-20 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a slight ascending wedge
2014-11-20 17:00:37 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks
2014-11-20 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I would take my clues from the internals here
2014-11-20 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we could move up and through the -500 level on the MCSUM as soon as Friday
2014-11-20 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember what we talked about last week
2014-11-20 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will not show a lot of action until we get close to this same area
2014-11-20 17:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today might had been the kick off to that
2014-11-20 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I like the action there
2014-11-20 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an upside target of $95
2014-11-20 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how many traders do you think are bullish on energy right now?
2014-11-20 17:02:53 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: 0
2014-11-20 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO snapped back to its zero line on Tuesday
2014-11-20 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but didn't dig deeper on yesterday's lower reading
2014-11-20 17:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would appear that we have a classic flag and staff bullish formation in the chart pattern
2014-11-20 17:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure wouldn't want it to go another day though
2014-11-20 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either price wise or with the XLF breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 17:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've had enough a pause here for "comfortability"
2014-11-20 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it's time for the buyers to step up
2014-11-20 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...looking at the XLV
2014-11-20 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what was the question?
2014-11-20 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had an inside range day on Wednesday
2014-11-20 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which forecasted a down close it
2014-11-20 17:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you have a follow up to that?
2014-11-20 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes
2014-11-20 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a inside range day on Monday
2014-11-20 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which forecasted an up close for that too
2014-11-20 17:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so these two range days did their job nicely
2014-11-20 17:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was there another question on this Mike?
2014-11-20 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (keep losing him)
2014-11-20 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll move on
2014-11-20 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLV breadth MCO
2014-11-20 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a nice series of tops beneath tops in the pattern
2014-11-20 17:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are currently challenging the zero line
2014-11-20 17:08:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Sorry I was cut off
2014-11-20 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with this same texture in XLV MCO
2014-11-20 17:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this suggests that the sellers are actually getting stronger and stronger at these levels
2014-11-20 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-11-20 17:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO still above its zero line
2014-11-20 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less with the XLV components nicely above theirs
2014-11-20 17:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains with the bulls for now
2014-11-20 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you have any further comments you wanted me to touch on the XLV Mike?
2014-11-20 17:09:53 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: yes
2014-11-20 17:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talked about the inside range days
2014-11-20 17:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may have missed that
2014-11-20 17:10:18 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Was Monday a RTday to sell
2014-11-20 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2014-11-20 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-11-20 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that a range day is a one day indicator that forecasts an opposite close to what the prior day's close was when the range occurred
2014-11-20 17:11:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I meant buy
2014-11-20 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we had a down close on Friday
2014-11-20 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inside range on Monday
2014-11-20 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forecasted an up close the following day
2014-11-20 17:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got the up close on Tuesday
2014-11-20 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday was an inside range day suggesting a down close today
2014-11-20 17:11:53 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes thank you I meant a buy
2014-11-20 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got that
2014-11-20 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now remember
2014-11-20 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: range days are more important during trending sequences
2014-11-20 17:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not so much when prices are consolidating
2014-11-20 17:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2014-11-20 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they only forecast the next day ONLY
2014-11-20 17:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they are classified as short term trending indicators
2014-11-20 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes it can be more
2014-11-20 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like a key reversal
2014-11-20 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are other guidelines that must be there for a range day to be more than just a one day event
2014-11-20 17:14:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Where can I find them?
2014-11-20 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: range days are helpful if you're a swing or day trader
2014-11-20 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look on the Technical Watch board
2014-11-20 17:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a category called "Technically Speaking"
2014-11-20 17:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you will find a tutorial on both Range Days and the Sign of the Bear
2014-11-20 17:14:46 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right - I'm more of a LT IT
2014-11-20 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2014-11-20 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-20 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want to use this tool more efficiently for your time period
2014-11-20 17:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would work with a weekly and/or monthly price bar
2014-11-20 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I must again caution
2014-11-20 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any range bar that you might see
2014-11-20 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will only apply to the very next trading bar on whatever time scale you're using
2014-11-20 17:16:19 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good to know but I sure would like to take advantage daily from time to time
2014-11-20 17:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2014-11-20 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's difficult to do unless you're nimble
2014-11-20 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you live your life on day to day market swings
2014-11-20 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have deep pockets to go along with it [smile]
2014-11-20 17:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slow and sure wins the race
2014-11-20 17:17:28 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Agreed
2014-11-20 17:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2014-11-20 17:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking at look at the XLI price pattern for a moment
2014-11-20 17:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can now see the outline of our expected high level consolidation that we have been looking for over the last 2 weeks
2014-11-20 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our closing at the top of this range today
2014-11-20 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Tuesday's close being a classic "false start" and moving back into the range for a reset
2014-11-20 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that we're back again to the starting line
2014-11-20 17:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if there's enough fuel this time around for the XLI breadth MCO to move back above the +25 level
2014-11-20 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this price consolidation you see here is a classic "pause to refresh"  structure
2014-11-20 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the trend has a high amount of momentum
2014-11-20 17:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but has to take a pause in order to keel over from over exertion
2014-11-20 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of a marathon runner running up a steep hill
2014-11-20 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking a moment to slow down his forward motion so that he doesn't cause damage to himself
2014-11-20 17:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...a very bullish structure here
2014-11-20 17:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should see higher price highs again before too long
2014-11-20 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got what I call a "power move" to the upside today in the XLB price action
2014-11-20 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLB breadth MCO continued to find support at its +50 level
2014-11-20 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like the XLY
2014-11-20 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that on Tuesday that the XLB breadth MCSUM broke above its declining tops line that had been controlling that pattern
2014-11-20 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can get up and through the +750 level on the XLB breadth MCSUM now
2014-11-20 17:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be another "all in" on the buy side
2014-11-20 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another sector up 11% now since the mid October lows
2014-11-20 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much more can the shorts take?
2014-11-20 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something is going to give here...BIG TIME
2014-11-20 17:25:56 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: A buy except for tomorrow a down day?
2014-11-20 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much power today for it to "count" as an outside range day
2014-11-20 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the volume to confirm
2014-11-20 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no volume
2014-11-20 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be Mike
2014-11-20 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what's consistent here
2014-11-20 17:27:15 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I need to remember to check
2014-11-20 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that many of the chart patterns closed at or near their highs today
2014-11-20 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was after they tested their recent range lows
2014-11-20 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all out bullish chart action
2014-11-20 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and smacks of another run up in the current trend near term
2014-11-20 17:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the XLK, as another example
2014-11-20 17:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we had test of yesterday's intraday lows
2014-11-20 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we even blew out the stops during the day
2014-11-20 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then closed at the highs of the day
2014-11-20 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there should be some follow through action on this on Friday
2014-11-20 17:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the intraday highs of Tuesday are taken out
2014-11-20 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this puppy is likely to run hard to the upside
2014-11-20 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when we bounced off the XLK breadth MCO zero line today in this effort
2014-11-20 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there was parity between buyers and sellers
2014-11-20 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when the price test was sellers to be found
2014-11-20 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the pattern moved within the path of LEAST RESISTANCE
2014-11-20 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that we are doing this while challenging the 52 week highs in the XLK breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a high volume upside breakout should be bought here
2014-11-20 17:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SAR buy point is at $41.76
2014-11-20 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so placing a buy stop at $41.85 would be the right call there
2014-11-20 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but do your own due diligence...please
2014-11-20 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just thinking out loud
2014-11-20 17:33:04 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Always do and thanks for the tip
2014-11-20 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO remains below its zero line
2014-11-20 17:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money attempts to work off the high "overbought" readings in the XLU breadth MCSUM
2014-11-20 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind though
2014-11-20 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even if the MCSUM continues to decline here
2014-11-20 17:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is only easing the high velocity in which money was moving into this sector
2014-11-20 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is not in any way a sell signal
2014-11-20 17:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are likely to still see higher price highs before this is over
2014-11-20 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the momentum of the fuel used to get to this spot still has to be worked off
2014-11-20 17:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a SAR buy trigger there would come in at $46.25
2014-11-20 17:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember
2014-11-20 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the MCO is on one side of its zero line
2014-11-20 17:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components are on the other side
2014-11-20 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all prices are able to do is....
2014-11-20 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...move sideways
2014-11-20 17:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop
2014-11-20 17:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-20 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to get indications that we have now relieved much of the highly "overbought" short term readings we had in many of the index and sector charts
2014-11-20 17:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there are others that are literally in "overdrive" right now as money is continues to plow in at a brisk pace
2014-11-20 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2014-11-20 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that our high level consolidation is coming close to an end
2014-11-20 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as our blueprint indicated might be the case over the last two weeks
2014-11-20 17:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get OPEX out of the way then
2014-11-20 17:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a pretty solid week next week going into the holiday weekend
2014-11-20 17:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with either a rest or shake out due right after the holiday...maybe Black Friday early in the following week
2014-11-20 17:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have a better handle on this on Monday once we see how this will actually resolve itself
2014-11-20 17:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-11-20 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's continue to stay above their neutral line with the exception of the NDX which took a "look-see" under the zero line surface
2014-11-20 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's continue to try to work off their "overbought" readings
2014-11-20 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's hard to do when you have day after day of positive momentum coming into equities
2014-11-20 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's remain "overbought" at this time
2014-11-20 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but can remain so for longer periods of time than what we "think" they can
2014-11-20 17:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .95
2014-11-20 17:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2014-11-20 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chugging along
2014-11-20 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hot too hot...nor too cold
2014-11-20 17:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just right
2014-11-20 17:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .73
2014-11-20 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .83
2014-11-20 17:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keeping within itself and not getting too worked up
2014-11-20 17:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .77
2014-11-20 17:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2014-11-20 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll call that neutral
2014-11-20 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-20 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that our pause to refresh is getting close to finishing up
2014-11-20 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we should see another attempt to move to higher highs over the near term
2014-11-20 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing as yet indicating that we're getting frothy at all
2014-11-20 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much of the fuel that was used to get us here was dynamic enough to keep prices from sagging during this same pause in the pattern
2014-11-20 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS and see if there's any improvement there
2014-11-20 17:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: important day for the metals on Friday
2014-11-20 17:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either they break to the upside
2014-11-20 17:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or fall to the wayside
2014-11-20 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +10 on the BETS
2014-11-20 17:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could go to +25 a good day on Friday
2014-11-20 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2014-11-20 17:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-11-20 17:48:45 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Not here have a good weekend
2014-11-20 17:50:15 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great Weekend
2014-11-20 17:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-11-20 17:50:24 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: have a great weekend Fib...thanks again
2014-11-20 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyday should be a great day
2014-11-20 17:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you never know when it might be your last [smile]
2014-11-20 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that sobering statement
2014-11-20 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-11-20 17:51:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great, super, weekend
2014-11-20 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Monday
2014-11-20 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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