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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-11-20 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-11-20 16:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-11-20 16:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-11-20 16:02:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: today looked about right
2012-11-20 16:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much...choppy all day long
2012-11-20 16:04:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, we cashed a nice PCLN call, then pretty much sat back
2012-11-20 16:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me clear off the rest of my desk and we'll get going
2012-11-20 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you think on PCLN?
2012-11-20 16:05:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looks pretty bullish to me
2012-11-20 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a double bottom island reversal on the daily
2012-11-20 16:06:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, and EMA's line up nicely
2012-11-20 16:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they sure are
2012-11-20 16:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trigger would be a close above 660 for a move to....
2012-11-20 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 800?
2012-11-20 16:07:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-11-20 16:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least a test of the all time highs
2012-11-20 16:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who would had thunk it?
2012-11-20 16:08:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when the market tanked early, we had large green candles-counter trending
2012-11-20 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...look at that
2012-11-20 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Apple's high today was 572
2012-11-20 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right in the middle of resistance
2012-11-20 16:09:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: saw that!
2012-11-20 16:09:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Steve is in my trading room now, great addition
2012-11-20 16:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be a key test for Apple coming up
2012-11-20 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I never get invited
2012-11-20 16:09:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ALWAYS welcome!!!
2012-11-20 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and we'll see how we're looking
2012-11-20 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO saw some momentum carry over today
2012-11-20 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed just above its zero line
2012-11-20 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components, however, remain below their zero lines
2012-11-20 16:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless we get firm push higher here
2012-11-20 16:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to be tracing out a classic "ledge" formation on the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2012-11-20 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that most ledges only last about 3-4 trading days
2012-11-20 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today was day 2
2012-11-20 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2012-11-20 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our blueprint for choppy behavior today and Wednesday with a move lower on Friday is working out so far
2012-11-20 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCO fully retraced to its zero line today
2012-11-20 16:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled at +1
2012-11-20 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components here are close to a zero line snapback
2012-11-20 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remain a bit weaker than the MCO itself
2012-11-20 16:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest corrective behavior overall
2012-11-20 16:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it also looks like we hit the 8100 level in prices today on the NYA
2012-11-20 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as the relief rally was pretty much done on Monday
2012-11-20 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any momentum left from this burst of energy is now pretty much complete as well
2012-11-20 16:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that tomorrow is going to be a slow day
2012-11-20 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Friday a half day
2012-11-20 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't expect much to take place over this same period
2012-11-20 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change tonight on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-11-20 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now starting to sag lower
2012-11-20 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't be too surprise to see a downside resumption of this MCSUM near term
2012-11-20 16:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our next probable area of support coming at around the -750 level
2012-11-20 16:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also continued a bit higher today
2012-11-20 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless fresh buying comes in over the next couple of trading days
2012-11-20 16:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have enough of a pattern to suggest a fishhook in progress there
2012-11-20 16:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be the second one in this specific sequence
2012-11-20 16:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to go along with a two ledges
2012-11-20 16:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is about as rare as you'll see something like this take place
2012-11-20 16:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have talked about before
2012-11-20 16:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if any one MCSUM is going to take this opportunity to bottom it would be the NDX
2012-11-20 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have a bottom above a bottom already in place on the NDX breadth MCO
2012-11-20 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have met our downside price targets
2012-11-20 16:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes there
2012-11-20 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking the intraday high on the SPX
2012-11-20 16:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we missed hitting a .382 retracement by about 3 points
2012-11-20 16:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one could say that our first Fibonacci retracement target has been hit
2012-11-20 16:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the back of a momentum push in the SPX breadth MCO and its components
2012-11-20 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check again the numbers - one sec
2012-11-20 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...on a closing basis
2012-11-20 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's 1395 based on the September top
2012-11-20 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 20 day EMA is at 1394
2012-11-20 16:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might see an attempt tomorrow to hit these numbers
2012-11-20 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the internals should show weakness in spite of this
2012-11-20 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning
2012-11-20 16:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that those stocks that carry the most weight will likely be up tomorrow to help the index higher
2012-11-20 16:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can start backing and filling on Friday
2012-11-20 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some carry over momentum as well on the OEX breadth MCO
2012-11-20 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we can see the outline of a ledge being created on the OEX breadth MCSUM
2012-11-20 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some momentum carry over on the Dow breadth MCO as well
2012-11-20 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we were able to move above the early November highs
2012-11-20 16:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since this is only a basket of 30 stocks
2012-11-20 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't put too much weight into it
2012-11-20 16:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also moved slightly higher today
2012-11-20 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2012-11-20 16:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the MID breadth MCSUM is now about a day away from challenging its declining tops line
2012-11-20 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if breadth was flat tomorrow
2012-11-20 16:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this MCO stayed above its zero line
2012-11-20 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it probably wouldn't be enough for the MID breadth MCSUM to break above this same pattern resistance
2012-11-20 16:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2012-11-20 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SML breadth MCSUM going nowhere fast
2012-11-20 16:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at least 2 trading away from even testing its declining tops line on the MCSUM
2012-11-20 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO has now fully snapped back to its zero line with a reading of -2
2012-11-20 16:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the TM breadth MCSUM looks to be sagging here in spite of the recent strength that has come in over the last couple of days
2012-11-20 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-20 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: steady as she goes
2012-11-20 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-11-20 16:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have holiday seasonality in their favor tomorrow that might be enough to give us a positive close
2012-11-20 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally
2012-11-20 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are pretty much done now
2012-11-20 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should begin backing and filling in the hope of creating our first divergence point from where, eventually, we'll be able to find a tradable price pattern low
2012-11-20 16:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volume McClellan's
2012-11-20 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both the NYSE CO and Composite are moving in sync with their breadth cousins currently
2012-11-20 16:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good thing in our attempt to work with the rhythm being created right now
2012-11-20 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short term trend of U/D plurality is showing favoritism with the buyers right now
2012-11-20 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NYSE CO, Composite, and NASDAQ volume MCO's have been able to take out their early November highs
2012-11-20 16:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if its ever so slightly as is the case of the NYSE composite
2012-11-20 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO, however, hasn't as yet moved above these same early November highs
2012-11-20 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor again
2012-11-20 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we are right up to the declining tops line being measured on the NDX volume MCSUM
2012-11-20 16:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to take something robust to break above this line of negative influence
2012-11-20 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're likely to turn lower from here
2012-11-20 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a zero point change on the SPX volume MCO tonight
2012-11-20 16:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so both sides are basically evened up on their opinions near term
2012-11-20 16:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another small point change on the OEX volume MCO
2012-11-20 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this time lower
2012-11-20 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor again shows that we are right up against overhead resistance on the OEX volume MCSUM
2012-11-20 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might see some excitement tomorrow after all
2012-11-20 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2012-11-20 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure
2012-11-20 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is mixed right now from index to index
2012-11-20 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means we have no real trend going
2012-11-20 16:44:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just corrective activity
2012-11-20 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup...really a mixed picture
2012-11-20 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-11-20 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this wasn't a holiday shortened week
2012-11-20 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would give them a better chance of pushing things higher here
2012-11-20 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the holiday
2012-11-20 16:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it being thinly traded
2012-11-20 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything could happen here as it would likely be on the back of a news event
2012-11-20 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise we're likely to just stay within 40 point range of +20 to -20 on the Dow
2012-11-20 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wait for the first reviews of retail sales on Friday morning
2012-11-20 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-20 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not that much to add from yesterday's comments
2012-11-20 16:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that
2012-11-20 16:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had our relief rally
2012-11-20 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the momentum of this rally has now been pretty much exhausted
2012-11-20 16:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now it's up to the bulls to belly up and bring some friends to the party
2012-11-20 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the bears will be able to move back in and begin to paw away at the market
2012-11-20 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is there anything anyone would like to add...something that may be being overlooked right now??
2012-11-20 16:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the time where if you were blown out of a cannon
2012-11-20 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have reached your apex
2012-11-20 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless you get that extra push
2012-11-20 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would start to move back to the starting point
2012-11-20 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about I take a look at the sector charts and see who's leading and lagging...haven't done that for a while
2012-11-20 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anybody have any time to look at the utility sectors for buy candidates?
2012-11-20 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the charts so far
2012-11-20 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a lot of them that have bounced off their 200 day EMA's in the last couple of days
2012-11-20 16:53:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but are now finding resistance at either their 20 day or 50 day EMA's
2012-11-20 16:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: natural gas is finding good support here
2012-11-20 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: UNG
2012-11-20 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...XPH, heath care drugs, is down 13% in 3 weeks!
2012-11-20 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Home builders are doing well...XHB
2012-11-20 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Home Construction as well...ITB
2012-11-20 16:57:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: some builders were up 6% today...
2012-11-20 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Semi Conductors remain very weak here
2012-11-20 16:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Silver and Gold are hanging in there
2012-11-20 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though Silver is leading higher here
2012-11-20 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not what you want to see
2012-11-20 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE is also very weak here - NYX
2012-11-20 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that can't be good
2012-11-20 17:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: globally
2012-11-20 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the European ETF's are hanging in there
2012-11-20 17:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bouncing off their 200 day EMA
2012-11-20 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Hong Kong is strong here - EWH
2012-11-20 17:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just about all the currencies look weak here
2012-11-20 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the Swiss Franc
2012-11-20 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FXF
2012-11-20 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the airlines are firm
2012-11-20 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have no idea why
2012-11-20 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless they're raising their prices again?
2012-11-20 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should take out anybody left who needs to take a trip somewhere
2012-11-20 17:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Computer Disk Drives are very weak - DDX
2012-11-20 17:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Hardware as well - GHA
2012-11-20 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Software not looking any better - GSO
2012-11-20 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so why does the XLK looking like it wants to bottom?
2012-11-20 17:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XCI is also in the dumps
2012-11-20 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the interest rate sector
2012-11-20 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TED spread is low at .23
2012-11-20 17:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Libor is low at .21
2012-11-20 17:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's nothing wrong with liquidity
2012-11-20 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Banking stocks are holding up nicely here
2012-11-20 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Discover is doing well
2012-11-20 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AMEX so so
2012-11-20 17:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MasterCard is doing well
2012-11-20 17:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Visa....
2012-11-20 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is at all time highs!
2012-11-20 17:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, after looking at the charts
2012-11-20 17:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that the consumer is consuming
2012-11-20 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it maybe more on credit than cash
2012-11-20 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-11-20 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MasterCard is just shy of its all time highs as well
2012-11-20 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about nice chart structure...check it out...MA and V
2012-11-20 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think if we were going into a period of recession that Visa and MasterCard wouldn't be hitting all time highs
2012-11-20 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2012-11-20 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that they are taking a better piece of the pie on transaction fees and interest rate returns
2012-11-20 17:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but interesting none the less
2012-11-20 17:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that
2012-11-20 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is showing a technical bounce in and around their 200 day EMA's
2012-11-20 17:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe after we're able to construct a new foundation
2012-11-20 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a good chance to move to new yearly highs
2012-11-20 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for another time
2012-11-20 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-11-20 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next week or so should continue to be choppy with a bearish bias
2012-11-20 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-20 17:15:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, we'll check out the utes in my room
2012-11-20 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks...I still don't know how to set up a scan on StockCharts
2012-11-20 17:16:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and I'll report back
2012-11-20 17:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor have I really taken the time to do so
2012-11-20 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2012-11-20 17:16:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no prob
2012-11-20 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-11-20 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after looking at my charts tonight
2012-11-20 17:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to try to bring these chart array's up to date
2012-11-20 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...our next chat will be next Tuesday
2012-11-20 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you all for your continued support
2012-11-20 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hope that I continue to earn your business in the future
2012-11-20 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great holiday and weekend
2012-11-20 17:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again next Tuesday
2012-11-20 17:18:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: best value around!
2012-11-20 17:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2012-11-20 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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