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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-11-20 19:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-11-20 19:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-11-20 19:01:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: my main man
2008-11-20 19:01:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: GD
2008-11-20 19:01:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: great, you?
2008-11-20 19:01:21 [Message] Gauntlett -> Main Room: Great
2008-11-20 19:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: having fun Dave?
2008-11-20 19:01:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: most in years, (market), otherwise very worried about all else
2008-11-20 19:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a good day to those who are in the chat room for the first time!
2008-11-20 19:01:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but doesn't mean you can't profit
2008-11-20 19:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the idea
2008-11-20 19:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-11-20 19:02:19 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Market seems to be a little weak in here
2008-11-20 19:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you think?
2008-11-20 19:02:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: Elliott in the front pocket has helped immensely
2008-11-20 19:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: glad to hear it
2008-11-20 19:02:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sorry for disobeying, its been predictable of late
2008-11-20 19:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind though the impulsive waves make things quite easy to forecast future movements
2008-11-20 19:03:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, that means we keep going lower?
2008-11-20 19:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's those darn corrections that can give you problems
2008-11-20 19:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..before we go on
2008-11-20 19:03:54 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Resisted impulse to peek DP
2008-11-20 19:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since there are so many new people in here tonight
2008-11-20 19:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me take a moment to kind of give you an idea what we do here
2008-11-20 19:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we meet Tuesday's and Thursday's to "chart the market" with heavy emphasis on breadth and volume related data
2008-11-20 19:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of what we review here uses Decision Point charts as a follow along
2008-11-20 19:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and from this information we try to ascertain both the direction of price, and sometimes, are able to give price objectives based on this same data
2008-11-20 19:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because we do concentrate on breadth analysis, much of what we go over will be more than applicable to your own trading styles and methodologies
2008-11-20 19:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I basically lead the chat...with questions, comments, and such, highly recommended during the session
2008-11-20 19:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as this is an area for the advantage of all of us
2008-11-20 19:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line being...we're here to beat the market, and not each other - so feel free to participate within the structure of the chat
2008-11-20 19:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...with that out the way, let me first give an idea of some of the things we've been working with
2008-11-20 19:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back on October 6th, a measuring gap formed on some of the major indices
2008-11-20 19:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from this measuring gap, we were able to project downside price objectives for 4 of the more well known, and traded, indices
2008-11-20 19:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some of these objectives have already been met
2008-11-20 19:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I will give the four objectives from this pattern gap, and you can look at the charts and see how price has reacted since that time
2008-11-20 19:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the SPX cash - we had 899, 851, 724, and 588
2008-11-20 19:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the Dow - 8917, 8533, 7263, 6202
2008-11-20 19:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the NDX - 1126, 927, 845, 661
2008-11-20 19:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for the NASDAQ composite - 1532, 1377, 1299, 989
2008-11-20 19:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of these objectives, the SPX, Dow, and NASDAQ have already met 2 of their targets
2008-11-20 19:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX, only one objective has been reached at this time
2008-11-20 19:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from a breadth standpoint we use the McClellan Oscillator and the McClellan Summation Index to measure the speed and distance of the A/D line
2008-11-20 19:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this area, breadth of market is a leading indicator of where price will eventually follow
2008-11-20 19:14:40 [Message] sentiment -> Main Room: does that exclude short etfs
2008-11-20 19:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so knowing the degree of trend in which the McClellan tools measure, will give you a comfortable idea of what you should be looking for in relation to any or all analytical tools out there since the A/D line is the basis of many of these same technical tools
2008-11-20 19:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sentiment -the focus here is on direction
2008-11-20 19:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what product you choose to capitalize on this directional force is up to you
2008-11-20 19:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so whether it's higher or lower, it doesn't matter
2008-11-20 19:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as the flow of money - that is available for investment - is the key to successful trading
2008-11-20 19:17:06 [Message] m1lenk0 -> Main Room: fib: so according to those tools, 891 and 851 have both been breached on the spx. is there more probability of a downside to 724ish area than a bounce from 750-851 after looking at the other indicators
2008-11-20 19:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price can not move in either direction unless the flow of money is leading
2008-11-20 19:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...these price objectives were generated on only one form of analysis
2008-11-20 19:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we use the cash SPX for an example, you will note that the previous price targets of 899 and 851 showed sharp reversals in the trend
2008-11-20 19:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as each target is met, and the flow of money continues in this same direction, once they are breached, the next price target becomes the focus
2008-11-20 19:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for now, the next target of 724 cash would be the area in which a "potential" reversal should be seen
2008-11-20 19:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we say potential because there are no givens when it comes to the human element in all of this
2008-11-20 19:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I will say this
2008-11-20 19:20:10 [Message] m1lenk0 -> Main Room: technicals aside, i think that with the given situation we are currently in, the fundamentals will guide us to that 724 support
2008-11-20 19:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very probable now that the MCO (McClellan Oscillator) is at "oversold" levels right now
2008-11-20 19:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so since we're very close to this next price objective, and given that one can only stretch the rubber band only so far, one would then look to other areas of analysis to help in confirming that a reversal, how ever slight, is in the cards
2008-11-20 19:21:40 [Message] Eldar Bob -> Main Room: Fib, prior to 2000 the money flow indicator was very helpful. Is this within the guild lines of this discussion?
2008-11-20 19:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do want to be careful of though is that the Dow's next target is 7263 which is still several hundred points away
2008-11-20 19:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the NASDAQ - it's 1299, and the NDX it's 927
2008-11-20 19:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market has been in sync to the downside now for several months now, and it would be unreasonable to think that only one index, without the others, finding support and all of sudden reversing off this same point
2008-11-20 19:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything MUST work together, if it doesn't, we're more than likely in a corrective pattern of one kind or the other
2008-11-20 19:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in here, we leave our emotions and expectations at the door - all we want to know is what the market wants to do and act on that
2008-11-20 19:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if it gels with what your work is showing...all the better
2008-11-20 19:25:51 [Message] m1lenk0 -> Main Room: do you see the $vix retreating here or breaking through its previous high
2008-11-20 19:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to Bob - there are many "money flow" indicators out there which have their own usage
2008-11-20 19:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we attempt to do in here is deal with the ultimate money flow indicator - that of actual money flowing in or out the market - that makes these other indicators worthy of review
2008-11-20 19:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the advance/decline line is the ultimate technical tool as it measures...here and now...what people are actually doing with their money
2008-11-20 19:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we dig a bit deeper to see where this money is actual going to
2008-11-20 19:28:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lack of buying for days has caused selling
2008-11-20 19:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, lack of buying allows the market default of a downtrend
2008-11-20 19:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the stock market is ALWAYS in a bear mode as there has to be two sides of a trade...and they must agree on value
2008-11-20 19:29:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: there have been some buyers yesterday and today, trying to pick a bottom, that brought out the sellers.......lol
2008-11-20 19:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but there have been far more sitting on the sidelines
2008-11-20 19:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - breadth plurality has been just awful in the last several days
2008-11-20 19:29:45 [Message] Eldar Bob -> Main Room: point taken
2008-11-20 19:29:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: some serious intraday battles, yesterday and today with serious volume
2008-11-20 19:30:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we use the McClellan tools as our emphasis because what they measure is the "trend" of money flow
2008-11-20 19:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO of short term duration (4-6 weeks) and the MCSUM of intermediate duration (6 weeks or longer)
2008-11-20 19:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without this important information, one can get caught holding the bag as it's hard for us as humans to leave our emotions out of the trade
2008-11-20 19:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...Elliott
2008-11-20 19:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whatcha think Dave?
2008-11-20 19:32:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i think we had a wave 1 and 2 extension
2008-11-20 19:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a series?
2008-11-20 19:32:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and then a 5 wave down of 3 that is either complete, or will be on the open
2008-11-20 19:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those who don't understand Elliott, or don't even know what we're talking about
2008-11-20 19:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott Wave analysis works its best magic by measuring the mass psychology of the trading public
2008-11-20 19:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a way to "label" a price structure - nothing more
2008-11-20 19:33:57 [Message] tigherific -> Main Room: have heard wave 5 complete a lot lately - how compatible with wave 1 & 2 extension?
2008-11-20 19:33:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thinking 724 if we gap up to wave 4 of minute 5 tomorrow
2008-11-20 19:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's basis is based on simple charting analysis
2008-11-20 19:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...let me do this
2008-11-20 19:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me pull up a chart of what we've been working with over the last couple of months for some clarity
2008-11-20 19:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p07046171338&a=153146721&r=8408
2008-11-20 19:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every colored label is a degree of trend - nothing more
2008-11-20 19:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many have heard of 3rd waves, and if you look at the chart, the "preferred" consideration right now is that we are at the ending stages of a 3rd wave crash
2008-11-20 19:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be too involving to go over all of the rules and guidelines
2008-11-20 19:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at this juncture, we are finishing off what seems to be a "center point 3rd wave" structure
2008-11-20 19:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line for now is that we are in the panic phase of this current decline where 5th waves are notorious for everyone throwing in the towel
2008-11-20 19:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we have to remember one very important thing in all of this
2008-11-20 19:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since we are dealing with different degrees of trend, we are only finishing off one degree of trend, with a still higher degree(s) of this larger trend still yet to come
2008-11-20 19:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also fit within the price objectives given by the measuring gap we talked about earlier, and if the MCO is showing a higher low than 10/10 right now, fifth waves diverge with 3rd waves, so we now have 3 different angles all suggesting the same thing
2008-11-20 19:41:11 [Message] facesincabs -> Main Room: what does the tan indicator represent in your chart?
2008-11-20 19:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the more probability you have to an eventual outcome, then you can start tweaking things on lower time frames to find a possible reversal point that would compliment this same information
2008-11-20 19:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the tan indicator is the Hist MACD
2008-11-20 19:41:38 [Message] facesincabs -> Main Room: thanks
2008-11-20 19:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each and every price structure has its own story to tell
2008-11-20 19:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether we're dealing with something as complex as Elliott analysis, or simple bar charting techniques, the one constant in all of this is knowing the degree of trend of money pushing or pulling prices in a one direction or the other and then attempting to find how the momentum of the move compares with previous pattern structures
2008-11-20 19:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: divergence is an important tool as we are dealing with supply and demand factors in technical analysis
2008-11-20 19:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...having momentum and/or money flow easing into a bottom, or a top, instructs us to look for points of reversal as this same information that continues to exhaust itself
2008-11-20 19:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it fits with price objectives given by various ways of receiving this kind of information...better still
2008-11-20 19:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bottom line in all of this is that although market trading may look chaotic at times, there is ALWAYS order
2008-11-20 19:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it is this "order" in which we attempt to understand with this twice weekly chat sessions
2008-11-20 19:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any other questions or comments before we go to DP?
2008-11-20 19:46:43 [Message] mss -> Main Room: the 695spx ?? out of Elliott
2008-11-20 19:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: your 695 was your target I believe using different techniques to come up with this same objective
2008-11-20 19:47:23 [Message] tigherific -> Main Room: Do you use McClellan indicators to "lean into" Elliot reversal points or just to confirm?
2008-11-20 19:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott is a back of the stove tool
2008-11-20 19:47:52 [Message] tigherific -> Main Room: good
2008-11-20 19:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our direct focus is with the money that is available for investment - without this knowledge, nothing really works
2008-11-20 19:48:01 [Message] mss -> Main Room: yes my next tgt
2008-11-20 19:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you got this 695 target based on....?
2008-11-20 19:48:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: $spx inverted cup and handle as well that broke down and backtested today
2008-11-20 19:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: simpler still
2008-11-20 19:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow broke below 8000, snapped back, and then fell apart
2008-11-20 19:48:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: depth of cup also equates to 690 or so
2008-11-20 19:49:10 [Message] mss -> Main Room: channel & triangle break & measured price down
2008-11-20 19:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good...the more price targets that are forecasted by different means is always needed
2008-11-20 19:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we're in crash form right now, 724 and 695, can be reached concurrently
2008-11-20 19:50:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-11-20 19:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday and close, for example
2008-11-20 19:50:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: took the words outta my mouth
2008-11-20 19:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...for those who don't subscribe to Decision Point
2008-11-20 19:50:44 [Message] mss -> Main Room: thx
2008-11-20 19:51:02 [Message] Gauntlett -> Main Room: What is DP?
2008-11-20 19:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll try to give a visual representation so that you can get an idea of what the rest of us are looking at
2008-11-20 19:52:23 [Message] mss -> Main Room: FIB, I'll post some charts on your board tomorrow, nite all
2008-11-20 19:52:42 [Message] tigherific -> Main Room: 724-725 reinforced by Fib fan from Nov 5
2008-11-20 19:52:45 [Message] lazydogbkk -> Main Room: cup and handle shows best on daily chart or hourly?
2008-11-20 19:53:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: this cup and handle can be seen on both, 60 is more clear with the back test as well
2008-11-20 19:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those who have DP, this is our starting point - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosi_nyc.html
2008-11-20 19:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: clicking on the chart will take you to the next one
2008-11-20 19:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and please be aware that I don't look at this data before coming into the chat room, so my comments are off the cuff
2008-11-20 19:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after breaking below the zero line last week, and snapping back, the Common Only NYSE breadth MCO continued lower today
2008-11-20 19:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still remains slightly above the bull divergent structure created back in October
2008-11-20 19:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, we continue to have the "possibility" of double bull divergence, but this is not confirmed at this time
2008-11-20 19:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a current reading of -91, we are now technically "oversold" at this time, and are due for some sort of relief on a near term basis
2008-11-20 19:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving to the bottom of the chart, we see the 10% and 5% components that make up the MCO numbers -- where both components remain on a cross over sell signal
2008-11-20 19:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now testing the lows of October
2008-11-20 19:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with today's -91 reading on the MCO, showing increasing gap expansion distance to the downside
2008-11-20 19:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the beauty of the McClellan data is that it tells many stories that help us in understanding the direction and degree of trend of the advance/decline line
2008-11-20 20:00:00 [Message] here I am -> Main Room: going to blow by the summation low?
2008-11-20 20:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more than likely, yes
2008-11-20 20:00:20 [Message] here I am -> Main Room: ouch
2008-11-20 20:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reason being is that it's going to take at least 2-3 days just to get the MCSUM back up to its zero line
2008-11-20 20:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCSUM only 100 data points (or so) away from the October lows, it's highly probable that this will happen even if we stop and reverse at this juncture
2008-11-20 20:01:30 [Message] here I am -> Main Room: spacing indicates acceleration or possible exhaustion?
2008-11-20 20:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO measures the speed in which the A/D line is moving
2008-11-20 20:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more to the point - it measures the speed in which a 19 day EMA of the A/D line is moving towards or away from its 39 day EMA
2008-11-20 20:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the lower it goes, the more extended, or, the faster these two EMA's are traveling
2008-11-20 20:02:42 [Message] here I am -> Main Room: just wondering if there was a likely inference
2008-11-20 20:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: using simple chart analysis, many of us already use some sort of moving average to measure the trend of price
2008-11-20 20:03:16 [Message] Eldar Bob -> Main Room: What is the optimal time frame of trades? intraday? couple days? weekly? So the MCO is looking at 4 days?
2008-11-20 20:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO does this as well...it's a indication of the short term trend of money flow
2008-11-20 20:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO is best used on a daily basis - short term horizon - that of a 4-6 week period of trading
2008-11-20 20:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM is based used on a daily basis - intermediate term - that of a longer period than 4-6 weeks
2008-11-20 20:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the MCO measures the speed, with the MCSUM measuring the distance travelled between these two EMA's
2008-11-20 20:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's all they reflect - period
2008-11-20 20:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...this is just only the beginning of what they do
2008-11-20 20:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the case of the MCSUM, for example, the distance between the individual postings tell you visual how fast or slow money is moving in the direction of pattern
2008-11-20 20:06:07 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: (for those w/o DP, SC provides 1 McClellan chart so you can see what we're discussing: http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html)
2008-11-20 20:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now, the gaps between each posting is showing us that money is leaving the market at an accelerated pace
2008-11-20 20:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this negative energy then takes time to work off, and why it's pretty much impossible to look for a tradable bottom of lasting duration at this time
2008-11-20 20:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: reflex or relief rallies, sure, but nothing more than that
2008-11-20 20:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the levels in which the MCSUM posts also tells us many things
2008-11-20 20:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like how much an average stock might move in this same directional trend
2008-11-20 20:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case, the old usage of this tool is that when we get to extreme levels like this, the "average" stock will tend to move in 1-2 point increment (based on the old 1/4 minimal price adjustments)
2008-11-20 20:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there are many other nuances with these tools that make them indispensable
2008-11-20 20:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also continued lower today
2008-11-20 20:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the basic difference between the common only and the composite is that the composite not only measures all trades within the NYA, but it includes many interest rate sensitive issues that are not "common"
2008-11-20 20:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, the composite NYSE breadth MCO is the market
2008-11-20 20:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the rest of the charts we look at as sub headings
2008-11-20 20:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, in this case, with the composite taking out October's divergent structure yesterday, this not only gives us a reset to the current downtrend, but we should also be looking for new divergent structures to develop before we see a price bottom
2008-11-20 20:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this "technical breakdown" also allowed many of the indices we look at to break important support levels in todays trading
2008-11-20 20:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now..the word important can be used in many areas of analysis, but in this particular case, the break of this same divergent structure allowed the consolidation pattern of the past month to break down today
2008-11-20 20:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breadth leads price, so it shouldn't be at all surprising to the regulars that we broke out of this same consolidation pattern today
2008-11-20 20:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was the bearish expectation we talked about on Tuesday, and we had breadth plurality leading the way
2008-11-20 20:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM has yet to break below its October lows, but like we discussed earlier, it's highly probable that this will occur within the next couple of days
2008-11-20 20:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the thing to keep in mind here is that once we get a reset to a pattern, like all oscillator tools, we have to be patient and look for a new and better platform (another divergent structure) to be created before we have the necessary foundation for price to move in the opposite direction
2008-11-20 20:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the breaking of such divergent structures, therefore, extend the amount of time that is necessary for something like this to happen as well
2008-11-20 20:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for many weeks now, we have been looking for sometime in the spring of next year where a tradable bottom might present itself
2008-11-20 20:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with this technical collapse now, this has now been extended...probably into the summer
2008-11-20 20:19:23 [Message] Eldar Bob -> Main Room: Whoa!
2008-11-20 20:19:40 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: 'tradable' means?
2008-11-20 20:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for those who might be looking for a point in which the market can't go any lower, that there might be value, and the probability to outcome ratio is high, you're going to have to wait a bit longer for this to happen
2008-11-20 20:20:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: there will be wave 4 rallies that aren't considered to be "tradeable" rallies however, they are tradeable
2008-11-20 20:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that this is daily data we're looking at
2008-11-20 20:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how each one of us trades has to be adjusted to fit their particular style
2008-11-20 20:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I will say this
2008-11-20 20:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until the daily data suggests that this basic trend is in the process of a wash out - where all of the willing and UNwilling sellers are fully flushed - rallies from this juncture will be short lived
2008-11-20 20:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's sort of like building a skyscraper - without a solid foundation to hold the structure up, it will weaken, and topple over
2008-11-20 20:23:16 [Message] brad -> Main Room: are there any sort of fundamentals that would go along with developing a foundation that we need or other signs we should be looking for?
2008-11-20 20:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good question Brad
2008-11-20 20:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me answer it this way
2008-11-20 20:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the beauty of technical analysis is that it gives a way to cheat any upcoming fundamentals in which money attracts as money moves in advance of news
2008-11-20 20:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is one of the primary reasons why many will buy at a top, and sell at a bottom because what is known has already been discounted by money
2008-11-20 20:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a bet - we're dealing probability and potential outcomes
2008-11-20 20:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what you will also find is that big money knows more than any of us, and what we want to do is follow this money and ask questions later
2008-11-20 20:26:28 [Message] brad -> Main Room: agreed
2008-11-20 20:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...money is leaving the market for very good reasons - it senses that things are worse than what is known
2008-11-20 20:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why the A/D line is the ultimate arbitrator in these kind of things
2008-11-20 20:27:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: add to that, that the insane are running the asylum and there is a lack of confidence b/c of this
2008-11-20 20:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sentiment polls are always skewed because what people say, and what people actually do with their money, are usually two very different things
2008-11-20 20:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: politely - capitalism is under attack, and the market is broken because of it
2008-11-20 20:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until there is better clarity of how things are going to run in the future, you go to cash - this is why the US dollar is rallying
2008-11-20 20:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: cash, being in short supply, is being bid up
2008-11-20 20:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you will read in here will be things which will go against the grain of what many of you have learned over time
2008-11-20 20:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...it does work
2008-11-20 20:29:52 [Message] Gauntlett -> Main Room: Backing up a tad... Would you explain how how yesterday took out October's divergence. As in the confirmation of the rally being dead?
2008-11-20 20:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's use the composite NYSE breadth MCO as an example
2008-11-20 20:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in October we saw an extreme low
2008-11-20 20:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I refer to this point of extreme as a "flag" - sort of like climbing a mountain and staking a flag at the top
2008-11-20 20:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is your point of reference for everything that happens later on
2008-11-20 20:31:59 [Message] Gauntlett -> Main Room: k
2008-11-20 20:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it a "keystone" in the construction of a foundation..in order for this keystone to work, it needs to be structually built upon
2008-11-20 20:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a divergent structure then is a confirmation that this same keystone is an important launching pad for a first opposite move in the price pattern itself
2008-11-20 20:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in technical terms - there were less sellers as we went to new price lows which money flow did not confirm this same lower price low as being genuine
2008-11-20 20:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from there, we rocketed higher as the balance of power shifted, but we also moved too fast for any kind of stability to hold up with this just created structure
2008-11-20 20:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there was no "texture" to the advance
2008-11-20 20:35:13 [Message] Eldar Bob -> Main Room: love that idea: created structures
2008-11-20 20:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, this suggested that this same reversal didn't have enough behind it to keep the momentum going in this new direction...aka - short covering
2008-11-20 20:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is a living, breathing entity - without breath capacity (breadth), the heart (volume) gives out (and vice versa)
2008-11-20 20:36:33 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: it makes sense that a "V" bottom would be weak because of a small base/foundation
2008-11-20 20:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything must work together for there to be cohesiveness
2008-11-20 20:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-11-20 20:37:02 [Message] Gauntlett -> Main Room: fascinating... and makes sense
2008-11-20 20:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why they are almost always retests
2008-11-20 20:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the question - because of the quick and short reversal we saw
2008-11-20 20:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only way to balance this out would be to see the MCO to travel back to neutral (the zero line) and then to look around and see if there was going to be any fresh buying in agreement of what had already been accomplished
2008-11-20 20:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like climbing a hill to a plateau, looking around to see if everything is OK before continuing the journey higher
2008-11-20 20:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because we didn't get any takers
2008-11-20 20:39:21 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Looks like we could get the sharp reflex rally tomorrow based on the depth of the negative components - a 9-10% move
2008-11-20 20:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once at the zero line, and since we had a balance between buyers and sellers, one side was about to take control of the action
2008-11-20 20:39:47 [Message] Eldar Bob -> Main Room: all hits the fan
2008-11-20 20:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this case, there were more bears than bulls
2008-11-20 20:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we traveled back to negative territory... the bears regaining control
2008-11-20 20:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as in all technical analysis, the very first expectation of any line break or zero line break, is a snapback to OR towards this same line
2008-11-20 20:40:55 [Message] lew -> Main Room: agreed, doc
2008-11-20 20:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and from there there still no buyers to be found
2008-11-20 20:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market sagged - looking for takers - nobody came
2008-11-20 20:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once the divergent structure that allowed this same reversal to take place was broken, this then sets up a "reset"
2008-11-20 20:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it a rally failure; call it a "false start"
2008-11-20 20:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in essence, there wasn't enough stability to change the direction of the prevailing trend from down to up
2008-11-20 20:42:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Call it 25% down in 2.5 wks
2008-11-20 20:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here we are
2008-11-20 20:42:41 [Message] Gauntlett -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-11-20 20:42:53 [Message] m1lenk0 -> Main Room: doc, do you honestly think that there is enough conviction amongst investors to drive this market up 10% from these levels in one day? people are realizing more and more that this whole thing is a house of cards
2008-11-20 20:43:19 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Well, there are always bargain hunter and short covering - maybe OPEX games
2008-11-20 20:43:37 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: I don't think "investors" drive the market up 10% in one day
2008-11-20 20:43:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: m1, you don't need conviction
2008-11-20 20:43:47 [Message] brad -> Main Room: nobody is gonna be buying into the weekend
2008-11-20 20:43:56 [Message] smartone -> Main Room: I believe these late day swoons are mutual funds looking at the end of redemptions they've received for the day and having to sell to raise cash to meet requirements
2008-11-20 20:43:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just shorts panicking to cover and momentum players jumping in for the fun
2008-11-20 20:44:03 [Message] doc -> Main Room: one interesting point i can make, Hiker likes horizontal lines a lot
2008-11-20 20:44:24 [Message] lazydogbkk -> Main Room: one could say a majority of the shorts wouldn't want to go into the weekend exposed
2008-11-20 20:44:29 [Message] doc -> Main Room: looking at the spx cash, during the lows of 2002-2003, the spx never closed the week below 800
2008-11-20 20:45:04 [Message] doc -> Main Room: maybe the same for this week on the first test below 800
2008-11-20 20:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...with all this said, I don't expect anyone here to just absorb all this in one session
2008-11-20 20:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only repetition will convince you of what we discuss in here
2008-11-20 20:46:43 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Fib, a great review of the basics for dumbbells like me, thanks to the expanded audience today
2008-11-20 20:46:49 [Message] Eldar Bob -> Main Room: Thanks Fib
2008-11-20 20:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what many of you will learn is that there is a great deal of simple physics that goes on in the markets, but this is only a starting point
2008-11-20 20:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on and see what the other data is whispering to us
2008-11-20 20:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the hardest thing will be to let go of what you have been taught in the past
2008-11-20 20:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not saying that my methodology is the end all of end alls, but you will find is has consistency
2008-11-20 20:48:30 [Message] lazydogbkk -> Main Room: "you must unlearned what you have learned"...yoda
2008-11-20 20:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's so important in trading...that and discipline
2008-11-20 20:49:20 [Message] doc -> Main Room: this past month has been a great lesson on the how divergences opposite the direction of money flow should be view as suspect, especially at the apex of the counter move
2008-11-20 20:49:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like the composite NYSE breadth MCO, the NASDAQ breadth MCO also broke its divergent lows of October yesterday
2008-11-20 20:52:05 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Fib, is there a chance today's trapdoor drop indicates some sort of washout low?
2008-11-20 20:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't think so Geo
2008-11-20 20:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since we have had a reset to the MCO, it's going to take some time again to provide some sort of divergence before an actual price low
2008-11-20 20:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also notice that the 10% component has also moved to lower lows as well confirming this same divergent breakdown
2008-11-20 20:59:18 [Message] sentiment -> Main Room: most breakouts, breakdowns retest, do u think we retest horizontal resist above or was intraday retest today enough, in other words were heading lower but do we need to alleviate oversold before going lower
2008-11-20 20:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on a technical basis, we just finished a horizontal trading range
2008-11-20 21:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should at least see an attempt to snapback to this same line...sort of like we did earlier today
2008-11-20 21:00:41 [Message] sentiment -> Main Room: thats what i'm thinking
2008-11-20 21:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we're near various price targets on the SPX
2008-11-20 21:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can hit those tomorrow, and then rally next week to meet this expectation
2008-11-20 21:02:12 [Message] sentiment -> Main Room: 725 spx, then back to resist maybe
2008-11-20 21:05:58 [Message] sentiment -> Main Room: fib, for example, setting up your trading day/ anything to make you trade now or u wait for resistance on upside support below
2008-11-20 21:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyday is different sentiment
2008-11-20 21:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now, I'm keeping things simple
2008-11-20 21:07:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: spx mco?
2008-11-20 21:08:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...let's move on...running out of time
2008-11-20 21:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lower MCO lows on the SPX and OEX breadth MCO's, and here we have both MCSUM's already moving to lower lows
2008-11-20 21:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that the cream stocks are taking it directly on the chin now, and this is not a healthy thing for the short term
2008-11-20 21:09:21 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: new lows 5%, can't tell on 10%
2008-11-20 21:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other side of the coin, the MID and SML breadth MCO's have not as yet moved below their divergent October lows, and the MID MCSUM above its October lows, and the SML breaking below these same level
2008-11-20 21:12:47 [Message] doc -> Main Room: as far negative as the components are stretched, don't you think the odds of a one day wonder increase? Just looking at the last 2 times the 5% and 10%'s got down this low, along with a potential double top on the vix.
2008-11-20 21:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doc..we remain in a crash sequence
2008-11-20 21:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, the volatility will continue until this sequence is completed
2008-11-20 21:14:19 [Message] doc -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-11-20 21:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would mean that relief rallies, just as taking the weight off a pressure cooker, can come at any instant, and can be quite dramatic when they happen
2008-11-20 21:14:41 [Message] lew -> Main Room: vix looks to be topping a fifth wave up, doc, imho
2008-11-20 21:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, the VIX is suggesting that we are in a fifth wave of a larger 3rd wave structure as it should be making a higher high
2008-11-20 21:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all future readings will be a series of lower tops - we're creating a flag point now of the entire structure from the price top of last year
2008-11-20 21:15:56 [Message] lew -> Main Room: the fifth of the third won't diverge from the third?
2008-11-20 21:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a larger 3rd wave
2008-11-20 21:16:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fifth of the larger will diverge, but we still in center point 3 so should make higher high, right?
2008-11-20 21:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is a smaller 5th wave of this entire 3rd wave
2008-11-20 21:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, bottom line...we are in the midst of seeing the highest volatility that we're going to see for a while
2008-11-20 21:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a panic phase of a center point 3rd wave
2008-11-20 21:17:29 [Message] sentiment -> Main Room: noticed investor intelligence showed little increase bullishness in this pattern, maybe clue of breakdown ,
2008-11-20 21:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's take this up again next Tuesday
2008-11-20 21:17:51 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: thank you
2008-11-20 21:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: polls like II will show their greatest amplitude at the lows
2008-11-20 21:19:04 [Message] Winace -> Main Room: Fib, volatility lags my studies, my studies have shown a more stabilizing environment over the last 8 trading sessions
2008-11-20 21:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in what respect...define stabilizing
2008-11-20 21:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...maybe you can share this with us at another time...I have to get moving and finish off today's chat...
2008-11-20 21:20:51 [Message] Winace -> Main Room: the largest force launch was an up launch by IWM bout 8 days ago (22%), un-compensated for by an appropriate retracement
2008-11-20 21:20:52 [Message] sentiment -> Main Room: winace, sounds like nominal stabilizing rather than %
2008-11-20 21:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmm...a little physics going on here I see
2008-11-20 21:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the volume data, you will note that just about all of the volume MCSUM's have now broken below their October lows
2008-11-20 21:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is volume conviction of the current move, and does suggest continued unwinding over the next several weeks/months
2008-11-20 21:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind, that even if the MCSUM turns higher, this doesn't mean that price will as well
2008-11-20 21:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we can save this for another time
2008-11-20 21:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volume oscillators are "oversold" now, with the Climactic Volume Indicator's suggesting a near term reversal in the next two trading days
2008-11-20 21:25:20 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: unusual opex
2008-11-20 21:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...is it ever
2008-11-20 21:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and specialists are carrying a LOT of inventory now, and they will need to unload it
2008-11-20 21:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: question is...from where do we start this unloading process
2008-11-20 21:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.19
2008-11-20 21:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .95
2008-11-20 21:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not enough capitulation yet - this is not a good thing
2008-11-20 21:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.19
2008-11-20 21:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.13
2008-11-20 21:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better...not great though
2008-11-20 21:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.83
2008-11-20 21:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.06
2008-11-20 21:28:22 [Message] LilOldTrader -> Main Room: Fib TM???
2008-11-20 21:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM = total market
2008-11-20 21:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the TM takes into account the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX
2008-11-20 21:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...dangerous market conditions continue where whipsaw action should looked for near term
2008-11-20 21:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who bought put insurance last week should be doing fine
2008-11-20 21:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term...we have the cash SPX approaching the 724 level, but selling of late is turning into more of a cascade
2008-11-20 21:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday rally attempts are weaker and weaker, and this would suggest that the market needs to heave
2008-11-20 21:30:36 [Message] m1lenk0 -> Main Room: and heave it will
2008-11-20 21:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: get rid of the indigestion
2008-11-20 21:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and hopefully feel all better
2008-11-20 21:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for investors, you should continue to be in cash
2008-11-20 21:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key here is capital preservation
2008-11-20 21:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for traders...have a blast
2008-11-20 21:31:57 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: will post the NYAD overlay with NYHL overylay with ema ribbons at the HH section of this site ...in a few minutes...Fib can you explain your comment Tues about context if you have a momnet later
2008-11-20 21:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volatility should continue in both directions for a bit longer
2008-11-20 21:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in what regard Hiker...?
2008-11-20 21:32:35 [Message] doc -> Main Room: here's an interesting tidbit http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1900-01-01&id=p95961104101
2008-11-20 21:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (I said a lot of things tonight)
2008-11-20 21:33:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, you give higher weighting near term to the cvi showing a reversal in 2 days, or the trin which says not enough yet, in context of near term
2008-11-20 21:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CVI is for the next couple of days...the TRIN numbers are more short to intermediate term focus
2008-11-20 21:33:15 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: prior years going back to 1980 or something..I did not understand why you seemed to discount the ema ribbon separation for NYHL now at an extreme
2008-11-20 21:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're going to get these conflicts of interest from time to time between indicators
2008-11-20 21:33:42 [Message] doc -> Main Room: spx is 450 points away from its 200 ema, the most by a long shot going back to 1981
2008-11-20 21:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't think I discounted it
2008-11-20 21:33:57 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: doc, recommend PPO there, rather than MACD
2008-11-20 21:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: EMA ribbons are important
2008-11-20 21:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all...remember what happened after all three EMA's on the Ratio Adjusted A/D data broke?
2008-11-20 21:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crash
2008-11-20 21:34:31 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: (percent deviation from 200 day, vice pts)
2008-11-20 21:34:33 [Message] doc -> Main Room: macd gives you the distance between two emas, in this case price and the 200
2008-11-20 21:35:24 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: posting the NYHL with NYAD overlay right now at HH
2008-11-20 21:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-11-20 21:35:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so wave 4 bounce fits the bill
2008-11-20 21:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-11-20 21:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but don't look for anything amazing
2008-11-20 21:36:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not, 830 or so
2008-11-20 21:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're in a death spiral now
2008-11-20 21:36:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 23 or 38 retrace of the wave 3
2008-11-20 21:36:35 [Message] doc -> Main Room: updated with mojave's suggestion: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=1900-01-01&id=p15242604822
2008-11-20 21:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the SPX breaking below the lows of 2002 today, the other indices should follow very quickly
2008-11-20 21:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: .236 minimally
2008-11-20 21:37:10 [Message] PRSguitars -> Main Room: arguably, a plunge and then near-term reversal (say, plunge and stabilize, then rally on Monday?) would satisfy both (the CVI and TRIN conflict made whole)...?
2008-11-20 21:37:11 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the daily cum NYHL with NYAD overlay..ema ribbons on NYHL
2008-11-20 21:37:13 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=3121288
2008-11-20 21:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I see it Hiker - yes PRS
2008-11-20 21:38:18 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: adding a second link back to 1985 now
2008-11-20 21:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the degree in which the EMA's have expanded do suggest that it can't be maintained for too much longer
2008-11-20 21:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we are dealing with the emotion of panic right now
2008-11-20 21:39:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the minor 4 up with thanksgiving and christmas and new years coming, will give ema's time to catch up
2008-11-20 21:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do not under estimate the emotion of fear ladies and gentlemen
2008-11-20 21:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm really sorry...but I have an appointment...I have to get going
2008-11-20 21:39:49 [Message] lazydogbkk -> Main Room: thank you for all that
2008-11-20 21:39:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave you rock
2008-11-20 21:39:54 [Message] volleyball -> Main Room: thank you for your time
2008-11-20 21:40:00 [Message] PRSguitars -> Main Room: Thank you SO much, your wisdom is incredible.
2008-11-20 21:40:04 [Message] johneeboy3 -> Main Room: First time watcher. V impressed. Many thanks
2008-11-20 21:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-11-20 21:40:14 [Message] doc -> Main Room: thanks
2008-11-20 21:40:19 [Message] lobolobo -> Main Room: Excellent, thanks!
2008-11-20 21:40:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll meet up again on Tuesday where I will announce the holiday schedule
2008-11-20 21:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and thanks to all who came in tonight
2008-11-20 21:40:43 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: appreciate your class. gn.
2008-11-20 21:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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