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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,458
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-11-19 15:59:48 fib1618: good day
2015-11-19 15:59:53 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-11-19 16:00:47 thespookyone: Fine thanks, you?
2015-11-19 16:01:01 fib1618: doing fine...thanks for asking
2015-11-19 16:01:49 fib1618: well...we can say that we're balanced out now on forecasts
2015-11-19 16:02:29 fib1618: with the small point change last week we thought we would be up...and we wound up down
2015-11-19 16:02:41 fib1618: and this week we thought we would be down...and would up higher
2015-11-19 16:02:46 fib1618: but at least
2015-11-19 16:02:56 fib1618: we got the small point change correct [smile]
2015-11-19 16:02:58 fib1618: goes to show that having a small point change doesn't always mean you know the direction of the break
2015-11-19 16:03:13 thespookyone: yep
2015-11-19 16:03:18 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-11-19 16:03:39 thespookyone: right now, it's a market of stocks
2015-11-19 16:03:58 fib1618: pretty much
2015-11-19 16:04:05 fib1618: and a lot of strong opinions
2015-11-19 16:04:35 thespookyone: funny, my opinion here is pretty restrained, LOL
2015-11-19 16:04:47 fib1618: now we're getting reasons why it's bullish for the FED to raise rates next month
2015-11-19 16:05:09 fib1618: well...that's here within these four walls
2015-11-19 16:05:23 fib1618: between you and me
2015-11-19 16:05:31 thespookyone: sure
2015-11-19 16:05:46 fib1618: I find it fascinating that we have as small of a crowd as we have had in here over the last couple of weeks
2015-11-19 16:05:56 thespookyone: me too
2015-11-19 16:06:07 fib1618: you think people are bored or exhausted??
2015-11-19 16:06:25 thespookyone: not sure, but seems like a fairly serious spot right here
2015-11-19 16:06:40 fib1618: usually is the calmest before any storm, isn't it?
2015-11-19 16:06:47 thespookyone: it is [smile]
2015-11-19 16:07:03 fib1618: OK...before I get started
2015-11-19 16:07:40 fib1618: as a reminder
2015-11-19 16:07:49 fib1618: with the Thanksgiving holiday coming up
2015-11-19 16:07:54 fib1618: we will have two chats next week but they will be on Monday and Tuesday
2015-11-19 16:08:06 thespookyone: cool
2015-11-19 16:08:12 fib1618: so do make a note of that on your calendars
2015-11-19 16:08:25 fib1618: OK...without further ado
2015-11-19 16:08:29 fib1618: let's get SC up and get started
2015-11-19 16:09:22 fib1618: after seeing the bulls flex their muscles on Wednesday and breaking above last week's blip resistance area
2015-11-19 16:10:13 fib1618: we see that the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved slightly higher today to fully snapback to the zero line
2015-11-19 16:10:24 fib1618: it's also a small point change today as well
2015-11-19 16:10:43 fib1618: looking at the CO components
2015-11-19 16:10:58 fib1618: and both have made it back above their zero line as well by about 3 points
2015-11-19 16:11:20 fib1618: with a slight bullish crossover configuration
2015-11-19 16:11:23 thespookyone: tiny buy signal, LOL
2015-11-19 16:11:37 fib1618: and then when we look at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-11-19 16:12:08 fib1618: it too is just above its zero line with a reading of +27
2015-11-19 16:12:37 fib1618: so the market of NYSE common stocks is pretty much neutral overall
2015-11-19 16:12:51 fib1618: as one side is about to take control on both a short term and intermediate term basis as we move into November OPEX tomorrow
2015-11-19 16:13:29 fib1618: one wonders then if our earlier expectation for a price low coming toward the end of this week is still alive or not
2015-11-19 16:13:44 fib1618: let's see what the other indices suggest
2015-11-19 16:14:03 fib1618: as with the CO MCO
2015-11-19 16:14:28 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also moved above its blip resistance area on Wednesday
2015-11-19 16:14:52 fib1618: but we can see that the current reading is still below its zero line at a -8
2015-11-19 16:14:59 fib1618: not much of difference
2015-11-19 16:15:04 fib1618: but a difference nonetheless
2015-11-19 16:15:21 fib1618: as with the CO Components
2015-11-19 16:15:31 thespookyone: how much information did we get by taking out those blips?
2015-11-19 16:15:34 fib1618: both the 10% and 5% Trends are also back above their zero line
2015-11-19 16:15:47 fib1618: but we do NOT have a crossover buy between the two
2015-11-19 16:15:52 fib1618: well...that's good question
2015-11-19 16:16:20 fib1618: as taking out the blips does suggest that we have some sort of structural low in the prices for the time being
2015-11-19 16:16:53 fib1618: but with the Composite and CO MCO's not being able to show good follow through today back above their zero lines
2015-11-19 16:17:17 fib1618: it might be one of those curious technical conditions that take place during bear market activity
2015-11-19 16:17:46 fib1618: where the emotion of a news event (like the capture and/or killing of terrorists) could be giving us a false signal
2015-11-19 16:17:54 fib1618: but at this point
2015-11-19 16:18:04 fib1618: it does need to be technically respected for what it MAY suggest
2015-11-19 16:18:14 thespookyone: cool
2015-11-19 16:18:17 fib1618: but until we see better readings in the MCO's
2015-11-19 16:18:22 fib1618: I would be leery
2015-11-19 16:18:34 fib1618: call me from Missouri.."show me"
2015-11-19 16:18:44 thespookyone: that's why I said earlier, I was restrained
2015-11-19 16:19:00 fib1618: the other thing we have to see from the buyers
2015-11-19 16:19:29 fib1618: is that we need to see enough of a buying imbalance to move above the declining tops lines in the MCO's
2015-11-19 16:19:34 fib1618: so until that's done
2015-11-19 16:19:43 fib1618: all we're likely to see here is sideways chop on the daily
2015-11-19 16:19:54 fib1618: looking at the price of the NYA
2015-11-19 16:20:01 fib1618: and that could be an option
2015-11-19 16:20:30 fib1618: but we also failed to move above the intraday highs of last Wednesday's reversal point
2015-11-19 16:20:34 fib1618: and until this is taken out
2015-11-19 16:20:43 fib1618: the sellers have control
2015-11-19 16:21:17 fib1618: and all we've accomplished is filling last Thursday's downside gaps
2015-11-19 16:21:29 fib1618: so the MID and SML price action will be important in this area
2015-11-19 16:21:46 fib1618: as their downside gaps were still quite a ways above the levels we were working with on Tuesday
2015-11-19 16:21:59 fib1618: and I (personally) haven't really looked at anything since that time
2015-11-19 16:22:05 fib1618: so I'll find out when I get there
2015-11-19 16:22:08 fib1618: [smile]
2015-11-19 16:22:13 fib1618: no telling please
2015-11-19 16:22:16 fib1618: I like surprises
2015-11-19 16:22:26 thespookyone: I didn't look either
2015-11-19 16:22:38 fib1618: back to the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-11-19 16:23:02 fib1618: and it continues to move lower since it moved down and through the +250 level on Tuesday
2015-11-19 16:23:16 fib1618: so the downside objective is still out there for a zero line test
2015-11-19 16:23:31 fib1618: overall...the bulls have really nothing to show here
2015-11-19 16:23:36 fib1618: and more than likely
2015-11-19 16:23:47 fib1618: we had very low TRIN readings on Wednesday based on the plurality
2015-11-19 16:23:55 fib1618: which would then suggest short covering
2015-11-19 16:24:04 fib1618: with no follow through buying today
2015-11-19 16:24:09 fib1618: we'll see about that later on
2015-11-19 16:24:17 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-11-19 16:24:53 fib1618: and although we also saw a snapback to the zero line over the last couple of days
2015-11-19 16:25:19 fib1618: we haven't, as yet, moved above the comparable blip resistance area seen on the NYSE MCO's
2015-11-19 16:25:24 fib1618: and THAT is a problem
2015-11-19 16:25:34 fib1618: as we are moving pretty much in sync
2015-11-19 16:26:06 fib1618: but the dynamics of how much money is moving in between the two exchanges is very different
2015-11-19 16:26:15 fib1618: for example
2015-11-19 16:26:29 fib1618: higher weighted value issues were covered
2015-11-19 16:26:56 fib1618: while the higher weighted growth issues were not all encompassing
2015-11-19 16:27:23 fib1618: we also have a small point change tonight on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-11-19 16:27:40 fib1618: Oh...and we do have one on the NYSE Composite breadth MCO as well
2015-11-19 16:27:41 fib1618: so...
2015-11-19 16:27:59 fib1618: let's once again look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-11-19 16:28:19 fib1618: going back to the NASDAQ breadth MCO components
2015-11-19 16:28:32 fib1618: and here they both remain on a negative crossover configuration below their zero lines
2015-11-19 16:28:55 fib1618: so if this were the beginning of a new advancing price sequence
2015-11-19 16:29:20 fib1618: it would be highly unusual in not seeing the growth area leading the value issues
2015-11-19 16:29:34 fib1618: so that's another problem for the buyers
2015-11-19 16:29:38 fib1618: so far then
2015-11-19 16:29:53 fib1618: it looks like we a simple bear market short covering rally on Wednesday
2015-11-19 16:29:56 fib1618: sharp and short
2015-11-19 16:30:12 fib1618: and now we've reached the apex of that rally
2015-11-19 16:30:21 fib1618: and "should" move sharply lower
2015-11-19 16:30:52 fib1618: sort like sending off a water powered rocket...and then it reaches its arc...and falls back to Earth
2015-11-19 16:31:26 fib1618: as with the NYA
2015-11-19 16:31:46 fib1618: the NASDAQ Composite also didn't challenge its reversal high point of last Wednesday either
2015-11-19 16:32:01 fib1618: and until this intraday high is taken out
2015-11-19 16:32:28 fib1618: this is nothing but reflex rally
2015-11-19 16:32:53 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-11-19 16:33:04 fib1618: and here we only got as high as -8 on Wednesday
2015-11-19 16:33:08 fib1618: before pulling back today
2015-11-19 16:33:19 fib1618: note that though both the NDX components are back above their zero lines
2015-11-19 16:33:32 fib1618: they remain on a negative crossover configuration
2015-11-19 16:34:08 fib1618: so we closed the late October pattern gap on the daily
2015-11-19 16:34:15 thespookyone: man, the NDX is close to that reversal point...
2015-11-19 16:34:44 fib1618: but so far we haven't had enough of a opposite push to take out the starting point from where this same gap was closed last Thursday
2015-11-19 16:34:50 fib1618: it looks that way
2015-11-19 16:35:08 fib1618: there really doesn't seem to be any kind of strength here
2015-11-19 16:35:11 fib1618: there's a lot of hope
2015-11-19 16:35:23 fib1618: but nothing suggesting that we've seen a final low
2015-11-19 16:35:42 fib1618: especially if the MID and SML are still showing some lag in their steps
2015-11-19 16:35:44 fib1618: let's move on
2015-11-19 16:36:16 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2015-11-19 16:36:23 fib1618: small point change as well
2015-11-19 16:36:47 fib1618: the SPX components look a little better than what we've seen so far
2015-11-19 16:36:52 fib1618: with a bullish crossover
2015-11-19 16:37:11 fib1618: and higher readings closer to 40
2015-11-19 16:37:27 fib1618: looking at the price chart
2015-11-19 16:37:33 fib1618: and we had another reversal bar today
2015-11-19 16:37:46 fib1618: which peaked out just below last Wednesday's highs
2015-11-19 16:38:06 fib1618: so we'll call the pattern vulnerable near term
2015-11-19 16:38:33 fib1618: and we'll have to see how the components do on any pull back we might see over the next couple of days
2015-11-19 16:38:54 fib1618: small point change as well on the OEX breadth MCO
2015-11-19 16:39:04 fib1618: so something BIG is about to take place
2015-11-19 16:39:47 fib1618: but here we have a negative crossover in the OEX components even though both are above their zero line
2015-11-19 16:39:58 fib1618: we are out of sync there
2015-11-19 16:40:05 fib1618: ever so slightly
2015-11-19 16:40:22 fib1618: but that could be because of the neutral readings we're seeing near term
2015-11-19 16:40:52 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO also made it back to its zero line today
2015-11-19 16:41:02 fib1618: one side is going to take control here near term
2015-11-19 16:41:17 fib1618: maybe once we get the November options to expire
2015-11-19 16:41:22 fib1618: this will open things up
2015-11-19 16:41:50 fib1618: we also had a mid range close on the Dow
2015-11-19 16:41:59 thespookyone: several of the indexes look a bit "ledgy"
2015-11-19 16:42:03 fib1618: which does suggest a down close on Friday
2015-11-19 16:42:37 fib1618: yes...could be a ledge...but I will be satisfied to label them hesitation sequences for now
2015-11-19 16:42:41 fib1618: in either case
2015-11-19 16:42:50 fib1618: we should see this sorted out by Monday
2015-11-19 16:43:28 fib1618: negative crossover on the Dow MCO components
2015-11-19 16:43:34 fib1618: this whole thing smells
2015-11-19 16:44:01 fib1618: note also that the Dow hasn't made to the intraday reversal highs of last Wednesday either
2015-11-19 16:45:37 fib1618: OK...moving to the MID
2015-11-19 16:45:55 fib1618: and we didn't close the pattern gap from last Thursday
2015-11-19 16:46:10 fib1618: mid range close
2015-11-19 16:46:25 fib1618: and small point change on the MID breadth MCO
2015-11-19 16:46:35 fib1618: the market is highly compressed there
2015-11-19 16:46:43 fib1618: or as we used to call it
2015-11-19 16:46:50 fib1618: there's "tension on the tape"
2015-11-19 16:47:14 fib1618: MID MCO components are leading and on a crossover buy
2015-11-19 16:47:34 fib1618: but the MID breadth MCSUM is looking like it's tracing out a ledge
2015-11-19 16:47:47 fib1618: with day 4 coming on Monday
2015-11-19 16:47:56 fib1618: so by Tuesday we should have a resolution to this near term indecision
2015-11-19 16:48:16 fib1618: looking at the daily price pattern of the MID
2015-11-19 16:48:46 fib1618: and I don't know how anyone can look at it, from the August lows, and say that it has a bullish tone to it
2015-11-19 16:49:14 fib1618: if I was going to put an Elliott label on it
2015-11-19 16:49:27 fib1618: I would say A-B-C counter rally complete
2015-11-19 16:49:39 fib1618: moved down last week was the completion of 1
2015-11-19 16:49:50 fib1618: and we're close to completing wave 2
2015-11-19 16:50:00 fib1618: <shrug>
2015-11-19 16:50:16 fib1618: this would then compliment the "out of tune" internals
2015-11-19 16:50:33 fib1618: and allow for a fake out into positive territory before reversing hard to the downside
2015-11-19 16:50:48 fib1618: probably wrong...we'll see
2015-11-19 16:51:14 fib1618: the SML came "this close" to closing its gap
2015-11-19 16:51:43 fib1618: but fell away from the close that took place within this same gap
2015-11-19 16:51:50 fib1618: that's not a good sign near term
2015-11-19 16:52:10 fib1618: as the buyers would have a better feel if the gap was closed completely
2015-11-19 16:52:16 fib1618: and THEN moved sharply lower
2015-11-19 16:52:19 fib1618: but it didn't
2015-11-19 16:52:36 fib1618: it ran out of helpers to get there
2015-11-19 16:53:04 fib1618: back to a bearish crossover on the SML MCO components
2015-11-19 16:53:29 fib1618: though we did take out last week's blip resistance
2015-11-19 16:53:36 fib1618: not by much...but it's there
2015-11-19 16:53:57 fib1618: so we have to respect that
2015-11-19 16:54:14 fib1618: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2015-11-19 16:54:29 fib1618: getting up to a -9
2015-11-19 16:54:47 fib1618: the TM components are still negative
2015-11-19 16:55:02 fib1618: while the TM breadth MCSUM now has a reading of only +10
2015-11-19 16:55:23 fib1618: making this total market pretty much neutral overall as we head into Friday's OPEX
2015-11-19 16:55:27 fib1618: so...
2015-11-19 16:55:38 fib1618: we got our alternate scenario described from Tuesday's chat
2015-11-19 16:56:11 fib1618: of the buyers coming in and pushing prices higher to relieve the "oversold" readings in the STVO and OPEN 10's we saw on Tuesday
2015-11-19 16:56:34 fib1618: but we also didn't get the necessary follow through today to make this a more important statement
2015-11-19 16:56:42 fib1618: and now...we're hanging
2015-11-19 16:56:59 fib1618: looking for either bull support to drive prices higher
2015-11-19 16:57:31 fib1618: or being pawed down by the sellers as the buyers withdraw their interest
2015-11-19 16:57:40 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-11-19 16:58:02 fib1618: small point change on the XLY breadth MCO
2015-11-19 16:58:06 fib1618: but as we also see
2015-11-19 16:58:20 fib1618: we haven't, as yet, taken out the blip resistance area from last week
2015-11-19 16:58:48 fib1618: and the XLY breadth MCSUM looks to be sagging lower now
2015-11-19 16:59:15 fib1618: wow...liquidity is certainly in "short" supply right now
2015-11-19 16:59:44 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO also just made it back to its zero line
2015-11-19 17:00:06 fib1618: with the components on the crossover sell
2015-11-19 17:00:32 fib1618: and the XLP breadth MCSUM trying to hold on to natural support at the +250 level
2015-11-19 17:00:54 fib1618: don't have a good feel about this one
2015-11-19 17:01:07 fib1618: ah oh
2015-11-19 17:01:14 fib1618: the XLE breadth MCO is now breaking down
2015-11-19 17:01:34 fib1618: after it too found resistance at its zero line today
2015-11-19 17:01:51 fib1618: components are also negative
2015-11-19 17:02:25 fib1618: and the XLE breadth MCSUM broke horizontal support today below its zero line
2015-11-19 17:02:35 fib1618: let me check for a head and shoulders there - one sec
2015-11-19 17:03:07 fib1618: volume is not consistent
2015-11-19 17:03:25 fib1618: but check out the price interplay between the 20 and 50 day EMA's
2015-11-19 17:03:54 fib1618: also note how prices in the XLE were turned away from its 200 day EMA
2015-11-19 17:04:01 fib1618: me no likey
2015-11-19 17:04:36 fib1618: the best play there
2015-11-19 17:04:52 fib1618: is to short at any print below $65
2015-11-19 17:05:00 fib1618: oh..BTW
2015-11-19 17:05:26 fib1618: have you folks have heard that the NASDAQ and NYSE are no longer going to allow stop and good till cancelled orders next year?
2015-11-19 17:05:47 fib1618: that should be interesting for those who have no discipline
2015-11-19 17:05:55 fib1618: their excuse was
2015-11-19 17:06:20 fib1618: that people were complaining that on high volatile days that they were being stopped out far below the execution price
2015-11-19 17:06:25 fib1618: so I'm thinking to myself
2015-11-19 17:06:38 fib1618: how is taking out stop orders going to help this?
2015-11-19 17:06:52 fib1618: I mean
2015-11-19 17:07:21 fib1618: isn't it the exchanges responsibility to allow traders to show good discipline in their entry and exit point?
2015-11-19 17:07:32 fib1618: how about those who actually work during the day?
2015-11-19 17:07:40 fib1618: it's a bad move
2015-11-19 17:07:48 thespookyone: no stop orders WOW
2015-11-19 17:07:58 fib1618: anyway...whatcha going to do?
2015-11-19 17:08:03 fib1618: I can see GTC orders being phased out
2015-11-19 17:08:06 fib1618: but no stops?
2015-11-19 17:08:12 fib1618: that's lunacy!
2015-11-19 17:08:36 thespookyone: setting up MOM and DAD for big trouble...
2015-11-19 17:08:43 fib1618: anyway...it starts in February
2015-11-19 17:08:56 fib1618: setting up brother and sister as well
2015-11-19 17:09:06 thespookyone: legal fleecing
2015-11-19 17:09:12 fib1618: they think they have complaints now?
2015-11-19 17:09:24 fib1618: NO ONE will trade the market
2015-11-19 17:09:39 fib1618: too dangerous...you have no out
2015-11-19 17:09:47 thespookyone: yep
2015-11-19 17:09:53 fib1618: these guys are taking drugs...got to be
2015-11-19 17:09:59 thespookyone: BET
2015-11-19 17:10:00 fib1618: but I digress [smile]
2015-11-19 17:10:43 fib1618: the XLF breadth MCO is looking OK here
2015-11-19 17:11:02 fib1618: as it has now taken out two levels of MCO resistance
2015-11-19 17:11:30 fib1618: and the MCO components on a bullish crossover
2015-11-19 17:11:33 fib1618: question is
2015-11-19 17:11:55 fib1618: whether this is a sign of strength is a fishhook in the XLF breadth MCSUM or not
2015-11-19 17:12:19 fib1618: given that the other charts we've seen tonight are not suggesting anything more than what we've see already
2015-11-19 17:13:13 fib1618: also it's not a great thing in taking out the early October hesitation point in the XLF breadth MCSUM before turning higher today
2015-11-19 17:13:18 fib1618: need more information there
2015-11-19 17:13:51 fib1618: the XLV had the best strength on Wednesday's rally
2015-11-19 17:14:11 fib1618: but that got taken all away today as it settled on the zero line
2015-11-19 17:14:36 fib1618: I heard that United Health is thinking of pulling out of ACA
2015-11-19 17:14:48 fib1618: that would be a spear in the heart
2015-11-19 17:15:05 fib1618: in any event
2015-11-19 17:15:36 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCSUM is trying it darnedest to hold above the +500 level
2015-11-19 17:16:01 fib1618: so we'll continue to be friendly toward this sector until told otherwise
2015-11-19 17:16:31 fib1618: nice rebound in the XLI breadth MCO
2015-11-19 17:16:56 fib1618: as it pulled up short of the important +25 level today (+22)
2015-11-19 17:17:28 fib1618: and with the price action moving to new highs
2015-11-19 17:17:39 fib1618: we have bearish divergence now between price and the XLI MCO
2015-11-19 17:17:49 fib1618: if it's short covering
2015-11-19 17:18:11 fib1618: this should fall sharply lower by Monday
2015-11-19 17:18:30 fib1618: looks like a ledge on the XLI breadth MCSUM
2015-11-19 17:19:01 fib1618: moving on...looks like a double top in the XLB
2015-11-19 17:19:08 fib1618: checking
2015-11-19 17:19:24 fib1618: yes, daily volume is consistent to a double top
2015-11-19 17:19:46 fib1618: as prices are not able to move above its 200 day EMA
2015-11-19 17:20:08 fib1618: small point change in the XLB breadth MCO
2015-11-19 17:20:41 fib1618: with bottoms above bottoms in and around the MCO zero line
2015-11-19 17:21:09 fib1618: as the XLB breadth MCSUM is attempting to base just above its zero line
2015-11-19 17:21:27 fib1618: one of those "I think I can, I think I can" moments
2015-11-19 17:21:53 fib1618: zero line snapback complete as well on the XLK breadth MCO
2015-11-19 17:22:02 fib1618: with a small point change
2015-11-19 17:22:36 fib1618: and the XLK breadth MCSUM is moving net sideways just above the +750 level
2015-11-19 17:22:45 fib1618: something has to give here
2015-11-19 17:23:26 fib1618: and it looks like we might have a near term buy signal on the XLU breadth MCO
2015-11-19 17:23:53 fib1618: as we moved above the zero line today
2015-11-19 17:24:05 fib1618: with the XLU MCO components sharing this same near term strength
2015-11-19 17:24:26 fib1618: and the XLU breadth MCSUM holding on to the +750 level
2015-11-19 17:24:31 fib1618: so...
2015-11-19 17:24:43 fib1618: a lot of mixed signals here in the sectors
2015-11-19 17:24:49 fib1618: but one thing is very clear
2015-11-19 17:25:12 fib1618: there's going to be another statement move in prices in the next day or two
2015-11-19 17:25:17 fib1618: so far
2015-11-19 17:25:27 fib1618: it looks like we had a bear market rally
2015-11-19 17:25:42 fib1618: and that another period of weakness should be seen going into next week
2015-11-19 17:25:58 fib1618: whatever happens though
2015-11-19 17:26:17 fib1618: hopefully we'll be able to pick up a better rhythm here that seems to be missing
2015-11-19 17:26:39 fib1618: given the geopolitical backdrop
2015-11-19 17:26:47 fib1618: it's probably not that surprising
2015-11-19 17:26:59 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are doing
2015-11-19 17:27:35 fib1618: STVO's are now neutral
2015-11-19 17:27:42 fib1618: so one side can take control
2015-11-19 17:27:49 fib1618: VTO's continue to meander lower
2015-11-19 17:28:13 fib1618: SPX and OEX CVI's suggested that a price top will take place by Friday
2015-11-19 17:28:17 fib1618: could had seen it today
2015-11-19 17:28:59 fib1618: as suspected earlier
2015-11-19 17:29:14 fib1618: the NYSE TRIN had a .39 reading on Wednesday
2015-11-19 17:29:26 fib1618: so, yes, it was a short covering rally as we thought
2015-11-19 17:29:40 fib1618: today's number is a 1.16
2015-11-19 17:29:52 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.04
2015-11-19 17:29:59 fib1618: so still minimally "oversold"
2015-11-19 17:30:07 fib1618: but no longer highly category
2015-11-19 17:30:22 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .65
2015-11-19 17:30:31 fib1618: Open 10 at .98
2015-11-19 17:31:00 fib1618: so no longer "oversold"
2015-11-19 17:31:13 fib1618: TM TRIN at .85
2015-11-19 17:31:21 fib1618: Open 10 at .99
2015-11-19 17:31:24 fib1618: so....
2015-11-19 17:31:31 fib1618: in just two trading days
2015-11-19 17:32:42 fib1618: we have relieved the "oversold" readings on both the STVO's and the Open 10's
2015-11-19 17:32:53 fib1618: and now we're coiled up again
2015-11-19 17:33:07 fib1618: and about to make a big move...which will likely take place over a period of days
2015-11-19 17:33:13 fib1618: next week
2015-11-19 17:33:19 fib1618: we have a holiday on Thursday
2015-11-19 17:33:35 fib1618: which means that we have a full day of trading on Monday and Tuesday
2015-11-19 17:33:59 fib1618: half days on Wednesday (traders going home early) and Friday (1/2 day)
2015-11-19 17:34:14 fib1618: could be volatile as positions are squared into the end of next week
2015-11-19 17:34:19 fib1618: but all in all
2015-11-19 17:34:47 fib1618: there's nothing as yet indicating that last week was the final capitulation to where prices will move to new reaction highs
2015-11-19 17:35:16 fib1618: and we'll just have to see how it all turns out once we get the added weight of November options out of the way
2015-11-19 17:35:20 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-11-19 17:35:21 fib1618: one moment
2015-11-19 17:36:19 fib1618: -65
2015-11-19 17:36:22 fib1618: no change
2015-11-19 17:36:41 fib1618: but the NYAD line did bounce off its 200 day EMA (1% Trend) on Wednesday
2015-11-19 17:37:05 fib1618: moved through the 39 day EMA (5% Trend)
2015-11-19 17:37:17 fib1618: and closed today right at the 19 day EMA (10% Trend)
2015-11-19 17:37:35 fib1618: so if there's going to be a swoon, this would be the place for it to take place
2015-11-19 17:37:41 fib1618: we'll see how it goes
2015-11-19 17:37:45 fib1618: anything else?
2015-11-19 17:38:34 thespookyone: thx, see you Monday
2015-11-19 17:38:46 fib1618: oh yes...thanks for reminding me again
2015-11-19 17:38:54 fib1618: we have chat on Monday and Tuesday next week
2015-11-19 17:39:18 fib1618: could be quite instructive given the current situation
2015-11-19 17:39:32 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-11-19 17:39:36 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-11-19 17:39:41 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend
2015-11-19 17:39:48 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Monday
2015-11-19 17:39:50 fib1618: good night


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