All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-11-19 16:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-11-19 16:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-11-19 16:01:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Fine, and you?
2012-11-19 16:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thanks
2012-11-19 16:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-11-19 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...looks like we got our reflex rally today
2012-11-19 16:03:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a "bit" of a squeeze, LOL
2012-11-19 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and good follow through today on the bottom call on Apple from Thursday
2012-11-19 16:03:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh my!
2012-11-19 16:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty easy call based on Elliott
2012-11-19 16:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to a .382 retracement today
2012-11-19 16:05:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: in retrospect, I see that's true
2012-11-19 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: off by 6 SnP points
2012-11-19 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: retrospect, eh?
2012-11-19 16:05:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wasn't looking to play it, so didn't count it
2012-11-19 16:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-11-19 16:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you got to grab it when you can!
2012-11-19 16:06:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: YEP!
2012-11-19 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll see how we're doing
2012-11-19 16:06:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny, because I trade it a lot-just wasn't high up on my radar
2012-11-19 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I pointed out the little fourth wave triangle on Thursday and the dump it took on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:07:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-11-19 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't you say you were looking for 400 or something?
2012-11-19 16:07:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 470
2012-11-19 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I remembered 400 something
2012-11-19 16:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be later...could be wave 4 in progress
2012-11-19 16:08:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-11-19 16:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we go
2012-11-19 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to extremes on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to build on Friday's reversal
2012-11-19 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back to its zero line just as fast as a blink of the eye
2012-11-19 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has now slammed on the brakes for the bears
2012-11-19 16:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM nears its next probable support area... -500
2012-11-19 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the CO components
2012-11-19 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see we have a slight bullish crossover
2012-11-19 16:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but enough of a bounce that we're likely now to chop around for a couple of days
2012-11-19 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price structure
2012-11-19 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the price pattern did not move above its previous congestion point
2012-11-19 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless there's good follow up by the buyers by Wednesday
2012-11-19 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely close to being done on this technical reflex rally
2012-11-19 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and likely to move lower into Friday and early next week
2012-11-19 16:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's were sufficiently "oversold" to where important price bottoms can be constructed
2012-11-19 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at many of the index charts
2012-11-19 16:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also put in many hammer sticks on Friday
2012-11-19 16:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that will be our support area for now
2012-11-19 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still have lower price targets still yet to be met on the NYA
2012-11-19 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE data
2012-11-19 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see good follow through on the snapback towards the zero line on the NYSE breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has halted the downside progress 3 days after moving down and through the zero line
2012-11-19 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this strength of pattern suggests that the bears still don't have complete conviction at this stage to where a prolonged downtrend can be created
2012-11-19 16:15:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: does it matter if we take out those declining tops on the MCO?
2012-11-19 16:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be another important couple of days coming up in seeing whether we either snapback to the zero line on the MCSUM before proceeding lower
2012-11-19 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if we're only going to see another hesitation point in the pattern
2012-11-19 16:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take it from the September MCO highs
2012-11-19 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we marginally did take the declining tops line out
2012-11-19 16:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the accelerated tops
2012-11-19 16:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're pretty much right up to this line
2012-11-19 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the bigger scheme of things
2012-11-19 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the power of the buyers to come rushing back in today
2012-11-19 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking out the -50 area as dramatically as they've done today
2012-11-19 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggests that the market is still trading more on emotion than anything fundamental
2012-11-19 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2012-11-19 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear at this early stage that the bears are once again losing their handle on things
2012-11-19 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would compliment the expectation of a tradable low coming sometime in mid December
2012-11-19 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about how important it was for the MCO to make a turn abruptly on Friday or that a possible challenge of the May lows was in the cards
2012-11-19 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up until mid morning on Friday
2012-11-19 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it didn't look very good
2012-11-19 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then Boehner came out and made his comment on the FC
2012-11-19 16:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market abruptly started to power higher
2012-11-19 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got our follow through on that today
2012-11-19 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not knowing exactly how the TRIN finished up
2012-11-19 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it's anywhere below .50
2012-11-19 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably pretty much done on this technical reflex
2012-11-19 16:21:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: .55
2012-11-19 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: marginal
2012-11-19 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it all works together as we move along
2012-11-19 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-11-19 16:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember that it takes both the MCO AND its components moving above the zero line together that would suggest that the worse of the selling is behind us
2012-11-19 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we'll need after that is for our divergent low to be created
2012-11-19 16:23:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth was over 11 to 1 early..
2012-11-19 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how it closed
2012-11-19 16:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2728/351
2012-11-19 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice day
2012-11-19 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2012-11-19 16:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was the forecasted
2012-11-19 16:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were so "oversold"
2012-11-19 16:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we knew that the reflex was going to be rather robust
2012-11-19 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least a 1% move in the major market averages
2012-11-19 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on all of the small point changes on the MCO's on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TA DA! done!
2012-11-19 16:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now what was accomplished by the bulls today
2012-11-19 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that we gaped above the accelerated declining tops line...referred as the "cliff" line of resistance
2012-11-19 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a catapult
2012-11-19 16:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pulling back on the rope as far it would go and then releasing
2012-11-19 16:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up we went
2012-11-19 16:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday's mid morning reversal made it a easy trade
2012-11-19 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we're under pressure overall
2012-11-19 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the long was a hit and run...and should had been closed at the end of today
2012-11-19 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite MCO components
2012-11-19 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that they have also snapped back as well
2012-11-19 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but no bullish crossover there
2012-11-19 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this adds to the idea that we're pretty much done here
2012-11-19 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we'll likely churn tomorrow
2012-11-19 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-11-19 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a higher open could be a good entry point for a short
2012-11-19 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a quick trade for the day only
2012-11-19 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday is likely to be very slow
2012-11-19 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Friday will be based on how long the lines might be at the retail level
2012-11-19 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still have a poor feeling about Friday here
2012-11-19 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many folks have turned to either the internet, craft fairs, or flea markets for their gift buying
2012-11-19 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one wonders how long brick and mortar businesses can continue to compete
2012-11-19 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...on to the NASDAQ
2012-11-19 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has also snapped back to the NASDAQ breadth MCO zero line
2012-11-19 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look how much weaker the NASDAQ MCO components are compared to the NYSE
2012-11-19 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one advantage for the NASDAQ
2012-11-19 16:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that its downside price target given by the MCO was met last Thursday
2012-11-19 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might see some continued strength near term here
2012-11-19 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the gap at 2975 providing formidable resistance for now
2012-11-19 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the divergent bottom
2012-11-19 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO showed the most power to the upside today
2012-11-19 16:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed back above its zero line with a +18 reading
2012-11-19 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2012-11-19 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both remain below their zero line
2012-11-19 16:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that this is just a counter trend move for now
2012-11-19 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do notice, however, that this move back above the zero line took place exactly where we thought  it would - right at the -750 level
2012-11-19 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a 2.5% move isn't anything to sneeze at
2012-11-19 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can be sure that it will turn some heads
2012-11-19 16:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's nothing more than a reflex rally for now
2012-11-19 16:36:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: many individual stocks look to me as though they've only completed an A wave here-I'm a bit gun shy
2012-11-19 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line today
2012-11-19 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we see that the components remain below their zero lines suggesting corrective activity
2012-11-19 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be better served in not attempting to putting an Elliott label on things just yet
2012-11-19 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could be right
2012-11-19 16:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could also be a 3 wave completion due to the break of positive divergences AND new "oversold" readings that came from this technical breakdown
2012-11-19 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the longer term pattern of the SnP
2012-11-19 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-11-19 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could make out a nice 5 wave structure completion from the 2009 lows with an ending diagonal
2012-11-19 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest
2012-11-19 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in wave 2 of, maybe, Primary degree
2012-11-19 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a textbook pattern
2012-11-19 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the global "thumb on the scale" by national monetary sources
2012-11-19 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's something "playable"
2012-11-19 16:40:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely
2012-11-19 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know a whole lot know on the upcoming retest
2012-11-19 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will include
2012-11-19 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of many Hammer sticks
2012-11-19 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will create some down and dirty sentiment
2012-11-19 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been talking about for a while now
2012-11-19 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many fundamental considerations here that can become game changes for the short term
2012-11-19 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where it might take a bit of time for the markets to digest these new "rules of engagement"
2012-11-19 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-11-19 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to work with the idea of a mid December low
2012-11-19 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where that might be, or what the backdrop of this low might be, is still out there to figure out
2012-11-19 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bigger picture wise
2012-11-19 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is still the opportunity for our ultimate price highs to be reached by the spring of next year
2012-11-19 16:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that hasn't been canceled as yet
2012-11-19 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the May MCO lows are taken out
2012-11-19 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be
2012-11-19 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for now, we have a technical bottom
2012-11-19 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a divergent low will likely be created
2012-11-19 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these things take time
2012-11-19 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid December this year is about 4 weeks away
2012-11-19 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and December Opex is December 21st this year
2012-11-19 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HEY...
2012-11-19 16:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the same day that the Mayan calendar ends!
2012-11-19 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about futures and options "expiration's"
2012-11-19 16:45:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: WOW, are we going to Zero? LOL
2012-11-19 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't think it would matter
2012-11-19 16:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-11-19 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our luck
2012-11-19 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have out of the money puts
2012-11-19 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the world ends
2012-11-19 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-11-19 16:46:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2012-11-19 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a blaze of glory
2012-11-19 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the OEX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2012-11-19 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a slight positive crossover on the components
2012-11-19 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though both remain below their zero lines
2012-11-19 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that we're attempting to find natural support here on the OEX breadth MCSUM at the -500 level
2012-11-19 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to just above the zero line on the Dow breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the OEX and Dow breadth MCSUM's look like they are creating a ledge here
2012-11-19 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that could be blown out tomorrow with some decent follow through
2012-11-19 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back above the zero line as well for the MID breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components here remain below their zero lines as well
2012-11-19 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same snapback with the SML breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can see how much weaker internally the SML is with the position of its components
2012-11-19 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback toward the zero line as well with the TM breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can see that its components remain in a negative configuration well below its zero lines
2012-11-19 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-19 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our technical expectation of a reflex rally has now been fulfilled
2012-11-19 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that the vacuum that was created by last Wednesday' technical breakdown has been filled
2012-11-19 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we find ourselves at or near the zero line on all of the breadth MCO's reviewed today
2012-11-19 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that, once again, we have balance between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2012-11-19 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on an intermediate term basis
2012-11-19 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers remain fully in control
2012-11-19 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was funny today
2012-11-19 16:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was checking the news
2012-11-19 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there were no less than 4 articles where the authors found it "shocking" that the markets were rallying today
2012-11-19 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe one day they'll find the insight they're looking for by using technical analysis
2012-11-19 16:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the sectors
2012-11-19 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after producing a new flag last week
2012-11-19 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO also moved sharply higher
2012-11-19 16:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finished today with a +19
2012-11-19 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2012-11-19 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both remain below their zero lines
2012-11-19 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also note that the MCO run to above the zero line had absolutely no texture to it
2012-11-19 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a pretty good bet that this was all short covering...to far, too fast
2012-11-19 16:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the MCO's move back above its zero line is providing support for the XLY breadth MCSUM in and around the -500 level
2012-11-19 16:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that it broke below this level last Thursday
2012-11-19 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might only be seeing a simple snapback to this same -500 level
2012-11-19 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event, we should expect some backing and filling still yet to come before we're likely to see a bottom there
2012-11-19 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably at the 44 level
2012-11-19 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have bull divergence in place on the XLP breadth MCO with its thrust higher today
2012-11-19 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also met the minimum downside target I do believe we spoke about a couple of weeks ago at the 34 level being met last week
2012-11-19 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's keep an eye on this defensive sector as we move towards our anticipated bottom next month
2012-11-19 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE continues to look corrective here
2012-11-19 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking down with the rest of the market last week
2012-11-19 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we have a technical buy signal again on the XLF
2012-11-19 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLF breadth MCO moving above previous highs
2012-11-19 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components right there with it
2012-11-19 17:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the components haven't quite closed above these same reaction highs
2012-11-19 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call it a buy signal with an asterisk
2012-11-19 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I wouldn't trade it)
2012-11-19 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO has also moved back above its zero line
2012-11-19 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as has the XLV components
2012-11-19 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like the XLP...we have a buy signal here as well
2012-11-19 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also
2012-11-19 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the XLV breadth MCSUM is now within range of its zero line
2012-11-19 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls can re-establish their control
2012-11-19 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could have a tradable bottom here too with the Health Care sector
2012-11-19 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the Consumer Staples though
2012-11-19 17:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this ETF does NOT have a divergent MCO structure as yet
2012-11-19 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be a cautious buy if anything else
2012-11-19 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking for some sort of divergent momentum move for the MCO before we're likely to see the ultimate buy point
2012-11-19 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI is now fully neutral here
2012-11-19 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the XLI breadth MCO, its components, and the MCSUM in and around their zero lines
2012-11-19 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete on the XLB breadth MCO and its components
2012-11-19 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO is also back above its zero line
2012-11-19 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components are not
2012-11-19 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we see here that this MCO has multiple bottoms above bottoms divergence going on here
2012-11-19 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further breadth thrust could suggest a trading low there
2012-11-19 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note how the pattern here has already met its challenge of the June lows
2012-11-19 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while the rest of the market struggles for divergence
2012-11-19 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK might be our opportunity to accumulate during any or all shake outs that are likely to come
2012-11-19 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what may be a the trade of the year
2012-11-19 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes with the XLU
2012-11-19 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we are now showing a divergent and highly "oversold" MCO
2012-11-19 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLU breadth MCSUM just as washed out
2012-11-19 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have lots of price pattern support at the 34 level
2012-11-19 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it might be time to start shopping here for higher yielding utility stocks to either compliment or replace the REITS
2012-11-19 17:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we saw that the longer term rising bottoms line of the NYSE Bond CEF's was broken last week
2012-11-19 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of the good news in the REITS are now out
2012-11-19 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-19 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that Consumer Staples are finding good money flow right now
2012-11-19 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Industrials are pretty much neutral
2012-11-19 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Tech area has built a nice series of divergent bottoms
2012-11-19 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Utilities look to be at below wholesale pricing
2012-11-19 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we start to see any deviation from this moving forward
2012-11-19 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're not likely to hold enough for a mid December bottom
2012-11-19 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, we continue to improve
2012-11-19 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then affirm this time period as being important
2012-11-19 17:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's
2012-11-19 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excellent volume plurality today
2012-11-19 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some of the volume MCO's moving to new reaction highs today
2012-11-19 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no wonder
2012-11-19 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 15:2 ratio on the NYSE U/D today
2012-11-19 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but notice here again
2012-11-19 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that all of the volume MCO components remain well below their zero lines
2012-11-19 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this was a heavy duty short covering rally
2012-11-19 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no fresh buying
2012-11-19 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be verified by the volume oscillators...let's take a look
2012-11-19 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are not climactic
2012-11-19 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's relieved their compression today
2012-11-19 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the SPX and NDX VTO's still haven't, as yet, moved to "oversold"
2012-11-19 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which again suggests this being a rally of "relief"
2012-11-19 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not the start of a thrust
2012-11-19 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 53
2012-11-19 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2012-11-19 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-11-19 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not highly so
2012-11-19 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .66
2012-11-19 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2012-11-19 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much movement considering a 2% move
2012-11-19 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .73
2012-11-19 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.02
2012-11-19 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what else is going on
2012-11-19 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's 14.26 positive volume ratio was the highest one since August lows
2012-11-19 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is attempting to find a bottom here
2012-11-19 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the hammer tails created on Friday are going to be hard to break
2012-11-19 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could mean we just trade sideways with a high degree of chop like we saw last November
2012-11-19 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "remember the Black Friday lows" from last year
2012-11-19 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Eliades New 10 TRIN moved to levels usually seen with important lows last week
2012-11-19 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-11-19 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 3 year chart
2012-11-19 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime we've seen high readings like we saw last week we were about a week or two from a pattern low
2012-11-19 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-19 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was an important day for the bulls
2012-11-19 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they needed to see an abrupt turnaround near term in order to save themselves from sticky situation
2012-11-19 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today was only that of a technical bounce
2012-11-19 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and aside any possible follow through at the open on Tuesday
2012-11-19 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next couple of days are likely to be choppy and sideways going into the holiday
2012-11-19 17:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a pretty good chance of a down day on Friday
2012-11-19 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Apple has major resistance just above between 570 and 575
2012-11-19 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't expect much more above these levels
2012-11-19 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it closed at 565 today..up 7%
2012-11-19 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-19 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the Utilities for a moment
2012-11-19 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...the charts there look really awful
2012-11-19 17:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to do some research on this one
2012-11-19 17:35:54 [Message] hkk -> Chat: how are you using the MCSUM to forecast a mid dec low as you did with the mid oct top?
2012-11-19 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-11-19 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we broke down below our divergent lows
2012-11-19 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it then cancelled the opportunity for a mid November bottom
2012-11-19 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the following week we had our technical damage
2012-11-19 17:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually it takes about 3-4 weeks to rebuild structure
2012-11-19 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the time it takes to travel from one 250 multiple to the other
2012-11-19 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gives us this projection in relation to the "time" it will take to rebuild a platform
2012-11-19 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-19 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we continue to get good breadth figures tomorrow
2012-11-19 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this moves the NYSE composite MCSUM toward its zero line
2012-11-19 17:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be another building block toward this same forecast
2012-11-19 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would suggest better underlying strength than most believe there is right now
2012-11-19 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, we just fall away to the downside
2012-11-19 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important area to help support the mid December time period will be how the MCSUM reacts at the -250 level
2012-11-19 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that many of the MCSUM's are now "oversold"
2012-11-19 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the broader market can maintain a firmer foot
2012-11-19 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then our expectation of higher price highs going into the spring of next year improves considerably
2012-11-19 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-11-19 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I'm reading about is that we are in an intermediate term downtrend
2012-11-19 17:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which hasn't really been confirmed as yet by the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-11-19 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this negative sentiment will tend to keep prices from continuing to decay
2012-11-19 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least importantly
2012-11-19 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-11-19 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the blueprint from last week suggested an important low was near
2012-11-19 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far...so good
2012-11-19 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we broke to new lows on the MCO's
2012-11-19 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have new flags to work with
2012-11-19 17:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take 2-3 weeks to build another structure of texture worthy enough to support the ladder
2012-11-19 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there will be another opportunity to short here
2012-11-19 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just may not come until next week
2012-11-19 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-19 17:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2012-11-19 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next chat will be tomorrow
2012-11-19 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we're off for the rest of the week
2012-11-19 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to Tuesday/Thursday next week
2012-11-19 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our goal here
2012-11-19 17:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is very simple
2012-11-19 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sooner we pick up the rhythm
2012-11-19 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the quicker we'll pick up the beat 
2012-11-19 17:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2012-11-19 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-11-19 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great Tuesday
2012-11-19 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again 22 hours from now
2012-11-19 17:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch