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Posts: 4,530
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-11-19 16:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-11-19 16:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-11-19 16:01:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Fine, and you?
2012-11-19 16:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thanks
2012-11-19 16:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-11-19 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...looks like we got our reflex rally today
2012-11-19 16:03:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a "bit" of a squeeze, LOL
2012-11-19 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and good follow through today on the bottom call on Apple from Thursday
2012-11-19 16:03:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh my!
2012-11-19 16:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty easy call based on Elliott
2012-11-19 16:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to a .382 retracement today
2012-11-19 16:05:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: in retrospect, I see that's true
2012-11-19 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: off by 6 SnP points
2012-11-19 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: retrospect, eh?
2012-11-19 16:05:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wasn't looking to play it, so didn't count it
2012-11-19 16:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-11-19 16:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you got to grab it when you can!
2012-11-19 16:06:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: YEP!
2012-11-19 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll see how we're doing
2012-11-19 16:06:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny, because I trade it a lot-just wasn't high up on my radar
2012-11-19 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I pointed out the little fourth wave triangle on Thursday and the dump it took on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:07:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-11-19 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't you say you were looking for 400 or something?
2012-11-19 16:07:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 470
2012-11-19 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I remembered 400 something
2012-11-19 16:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be later...could be wave 4 in progress
2012-11-19 16:08:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-11-19 16:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we go
2012-11-19 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to extremes on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to build on Friday's reversal
2012-11-19 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back to its zero line just as fast as a blink of the eye
2012-11-19 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has now slammed on the brakes for the bears
2012-11-19 16:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM nears its next probable support area... -500
2012-11-19 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the CO components
2012-11-19 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see we have a slight bullish crossover
2012-11-19 16:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but enough of a bounce that we're likely now to chop around for a couple of days
2012-11-19 16:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price structure
2012-11-19 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the price pattern did not move above its previous congestion point
2012-11-19 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless there's good follow up by the buyers by Wednesday
2012-11-19 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely close to being done on this technical reflex rally
2012-11-19 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and likely to move lower into Friday and early next week
2012-11-19 16:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's were sufficiently "oversold" to where important price bottoms can be constructed
2012-11-19 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at many of the index charts
2012-11-19 16:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also put in many hammer sticks on Friday
2012-11-19 16:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that will be our support area for now
2012-11-19 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still have lower price targets still yet to be met on the NYA
2012-11-19 16:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE data
2012-11-19 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see good follow through on the snapback towards the zero line on the NYSE breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has halted the downside progress 3 days after moving down and through the zero line
2012-11-19 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this strength of pattern suggests that the bears still don't have complete conviction at this stage to where a prolonged downtrend can be created
2012-11-19 16:15:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: does it matter if we take out those declining tops on the MCO?
2012-11-19 16:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be another important couple of days coming up in seeing whether we either snapback to the zero line on the MCSUM before proceeding lower
2012-11-19 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if we're only going to see another hesitation point in the pattern
2012-11-19 16:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take it from the September MCO highs
2012-11-19 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we marginally did take the declining tops line out
2012-11-19 16:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the accelerated tops
2012-11-19 16:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're pretty much right up to this line
2012-11-19 16:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the bigger scheme of things
2012-11-19 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the power of the buyers to come rushing back in today
2012-11-19 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking out the -50 area as dramatically as they've done today
2012-11-19 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggests that the market is still trading more on emotion than anything fundamental
2012-11-19 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2012-11-19 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear at this early stage that the bears are once again losing their handle on things
2012-11-19 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would compliment the expectation of a tradable low coming sometime in mid December
2012-11-19 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about how important it was for the MCO to make a turn abruptly on Friday or that a possible challenge of the May lows was in the cards
2012-11-19 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up until mid morning on Friday
2012-11-19 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it didn't look very good
2012-11-19 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then Boehner came out and made his comment on the FC
2012-11-19 16:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market abruptly started to power higher
2012-11-19 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got our follow through on that today
2012-11-19 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not knowing exactly how the TRIN finished up
2012-11-19 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it's anywhere below .50
2012-11-19 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably pretty much done on this technical reflex
2012-11-19 16:21:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: .55
2012-11-19 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: marginal
2012-11-19 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it all works together as we move along
2012-11-19 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-11-19 16:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember that it takes both the MCO AND its components moving above the zero line together that would suggest that the worse of the selling is behind us
2012-11-19 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we'll need after that is for our divergent low to be created
2012-11-19 16:23:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth was over 11 to 1 early..
2012-11-19 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how it closed
2012-11-19 16:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2728/351
2012-11-19 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice day
2012-11-19 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2012-11-19 16:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was the forecasted
2012-11-19 16:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were so "oversold"
2012-11-19 16:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we knew that the reflex was going to be rather robust
2012-11-19 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least a 1% move in the major market averages
2012-11-19 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on all of the small point changes on the MCO's on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TA DA! done!
2012-11-19 16:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now what was accomplished by the bulls today
2012-11-19 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that we gaped above the accelerated declining tops line...referred as the "cliff" line of resistance
2012-11-19 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a catapult
2012-11-19 16:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pulling back on the rope as far it would go and then releasing
2012-11-19 16:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up we went
2012-11-19 16:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday's mid morning reversal made it a easy trade
2012-11-19 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we're under pressure overall
2012-11-19 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the long was a hit and run...and should had been closed at the end of today
2012-11-19 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite MCO components
2012-11-19 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that they have also snapped back as well
2012-11-19 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but no bullish crossover there
2012-11-19 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this adds to the idea that we're pretty much done here
2012-11-19 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we'll likely churn tomorrow
2012-11-19 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-11-19 16:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a higher open could be a good entry point for a short
2012-11-19 16:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a quick trade for the day only
2012-11-19 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday is likely to be very slow
2012-11-19 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Friday will be based on how long the lines might be at the retail level
2012-11-19 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still have a poor feeling about Friday here
2012-11-19 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many folks have turned to either the internet, craft fairs, or flea markets for their gift buying
2012-11-19 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one wonders how long brick and mortar businesses can continue to compete
2012-11-19 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...on to the NASDAQ
2012-11-19 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has also snapped back to the NASDAQ breadth MCO zero line
2012-11-19 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look how much weaker the NASDAQ MCO components are compared to the NYSE
2012-11-19 16:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one advantage for the NASDAQ
2012-11-19 16:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that its downside price target given by the MCO was met last Thursday
2012-11-19 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might see some continued strength near term here
2012-11-19 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the gap at 2975 providing formidable resistance for now
2012-11-19 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we suspected on Thursday
2012-11-19 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the divergent bottom
2012-11-19 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO showed the most power to the upside today
2012-11-19 16:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed back above its zero line with a +18 reading
2012-11-19 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2012-11-19 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both remain below their zero line
2012-11-19 16:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that this is just a counter trend move for now
2012-11-19 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do notice, however, that this move back above the zero line took place exactly where we thought  it would - right at the -750 level
2012-11-19 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a 2.5% move isn't anything to sneeze at
2012-11-19 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can be sure that it will turn some heads
2012-11-19 16:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's nothing more than a reflex rally for now
2012-11-19 16:36:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: many individual stocks look to me as though they've only completed an A wave here-I'm a bit gun shy
2012-11-19 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved back above its zero line today
2012-11-19 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we see that the components remain below their zero lines suggesting corrective activity
2012-11-19 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be better served in not attempting to putting an Elliott label on things just yet
2012-11-19 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could be right
2012-11-19 16:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could also be a 3 wave completion due to the break of positive divergences AND new "oversold" readings that came from this technical breakdown
2012-11-19 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the longer term pattern of the SnP
2012-11-19 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-11-19 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could make out a nice 5 wave structure completion from the 2009 lows with an ending diagonal
2012-11-19 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest
2012-11-19 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in wave 2 of, maybe, Primary degree
2012-11-19 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a textbook pattern
2012-11-19 16:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the global "thumb on the scale" by national monetary sources
2012-11-19 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's something "playable"
2012-11-19 16:40:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely
2012-11-19 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know a whole lot know on the upcoming retest
2012-11-19 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will include
2012-11-19 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of many Hammer sticks
2012-11-19 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will create some down and dirty sentiment
2012-11-19 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been talking about for a while now
2012-11-19 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many fundamental considerations here that can become game changes for the short term
2012-11-19 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where it might take a bit of time for the markets to digest these new "rules of engagement"
2012-11-19 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2012-11-19 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to work with the idea of a mid December low
2012-11-19 16:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where that might be, or what the backdrop of this low might be, is still out there to figure out
2012-11-19 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bigger picture wise
2012-11-19 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is still the opportunity for our ultimate price highs to be reached by the spring of next year
2012-11-19 16:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that hasn't been canceled as yet
2012-11-19 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the May MCO lows are taken out
2012-11-19 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be
2012-11-19 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for now, we have a technical bottom
2012-11-19 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a divergent low will likely be created
2012-11-19 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these things take time
2012-11-19 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid December this year is about 4 weeks away
2012-11-19 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and December Opex is December 21st this year
2012-11-19 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HEY...
2012-11-19 16:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the same day that the Mayan calendar ends!
2012-11-19 16:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about futures and options "expiration's"
2012-11-19 16:45:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: WOW, are we going to Zero? LOL
2012-11-19 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't think it would matter
2012-11-19 16:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-11-19 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our luck
2012-11-19 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have out of the money puts
2012-11-19 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the world ends
2012-11-19 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-11-19 16:46:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2012-11-19 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a blaze of glory
2012-11-19 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the OEX breadth MCO has also snapped back to its zero line
2012-11-19 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a slight positive crossover on the components
2012-11-19 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though both remain below their zero lines
2012-11-19 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that we're attempting to find natural support here on the OEX breadth MCSUM at the -500 level
2012-11-19 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to just above the zero line on the Dow breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the OEX and Dow breadth MCSUM's look like they are creating a ledge here
2012-11-19 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that could be blown out tomorrow with some decent follow through
2012-11-19 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back above the zero line as well for the MID breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components here remain below their zero lines as well
2012-11-19 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same snapback with the SML breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can see how much weaker internally the SML is with the position of its components
2012-11-19 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback toward the zero line as well with the TM breadth MCO
2012-11-19 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can see that its components remain in a negative configuration well below its zero lines
2012-11-19 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-19 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our technical expectation of a reflex rally has now been fulfilled
2012-11-19 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that the vacuum that was created by last Wednesday' technical breakdown has been filled
2012-11-19 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we find ourselves at or near the zero line on all of the breadth MCO's reviewed today
2012-11-19 16:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that, once again, we have balance between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2012-11-19 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on an intermediate term basis
2012-11-19 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers remain fully in control
2012-11-19 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was funny today
2012-11-19 16:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was checking the news
2012-11-19 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there were no less than 4 articles where the authors found it "shocking" that the markets were rallying today
2012-11-19 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe one day they'll find the insight they're looking for by using technical analysis
2012-11-19 16:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the sectors
2012-11-19 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after producing a new flag last week
2012-11-19 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO also moved sharply higher
2012-11-19 16:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finished today with a +19
2012-11-19 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2012-11-19 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both remain below their zero lines
2012-11-19 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also note that the MCO run to above the zero line had absolutely no texture to it
2012-11-19 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a pretty good bet that this was all short far, too fast
2012-11-19 16:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the MCO's move back above its zero line is providing support for the XLY breadth MCSUM in and around the -500 level
2012-11-19 16:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that it broke below this level last Thursday
2012-11-19 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might only be seeing a simple snapback to this same -500 level
2012-11-19 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event, we should expect some backing and filling still yet to come before we're likely to see a bottom there
2012-11-19 16:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably at the 44 level
2012-11-19 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have bull divergence in place on the XLP breadth MCO with its thrust higher today
2012-11-19 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also met the minimum downside target I do believe we spoke about a couple of weeks ago at the 34 level being met last week
2012-11-19 17:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's keep an eye on this defensive sector as we move towards our anticipated bottom next month
2012-11-19 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE continues to look corrective here
2012-11-19 17:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking down with the rest of the market last week
2012-11-19 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we have a technical buy signal again on the XLF
2012-11-19 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLF breadth MCO moving above previous highs
2012-11-19 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components right there with it
2012-11-19 17:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the components haven't quite closed above these same reaction highs
2012-11-19 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call it a buy signal with an asterisk
2012-11-19 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I wouldn't trade it)
2012-11-19 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO has also moved back above its zero line
2012-11-19 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as has the XLV components
2012-11-19 17:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so like the XLP...we have a buy signal here as well
2012-11-19 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also
2012-11-19 17:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the XLV breadth MCSUM is now within range of its zero line
2012-11-19 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls can re-establish their control
2012-11-19 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could have a tradable bottom here too with the Health Care sector
2012-11-19 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the Consumer Staples though
2012-11-19 17:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this ETF does NOT have a divergent MCO structure as yet
2012-11-19 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be a cautious buy if anything else
2012-11-19 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking for some sort of divergent momentum move for the MCO before we're likely to see the ultimate buy point
2012-11-19 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI is now fully neutral here
2012-11-19 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the XLI breadth MCO, its components, and the MCSUM in and around their zero lines
2012-11-19 17:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete on the XLB breadth MCO and its components
2012-11-19 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO is also back above its zero line
2012-11-19 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components are not
2012-11-19 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we see here that this MCO has multiple bottoms above bottoms divergence going on here
2012-11-19 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further breadth thrust could suggest a trading low there
2012-11-19 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note how the pattern here has already met its challenge of the June lows
2012-11-19 17:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while the rest of the market struggles for divergence
2012-11-19 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK might be our opportunity to accumulate during any or all shake outs that are likely to come
2012-11-19 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what may be a the trade of the year
2012-11-19 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes with the XLU
2012-11-19 17:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we are now showing a divergent and highly "oversold" MCO
2012-11-19 17:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLU breadth MCSUM just as washed out
2012-11-19 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have lots of price pattern support at the 34 level
2012-11-19 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it might be time to start shopping here for higher yielding utility stocks to either compliment or replace the REITS
2012-11-19 17:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we saw that the longer term rising bottoms line of the NYSE Bond CEF's was broken last week
2012-11-19 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of the good news in the REITS are now out
2012-11-19 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-19 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that Consumer Staples are finding good money flow right now
2012-11-19 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Industrials are pretty much neutral
2012-11-19 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Tech area has built a nice series of divergent bottoms
2012-11-19 17:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Utilities look to be at below wholesale pricing
2012-11-19 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we start to see any deviation from this moving forward
2012-11-19 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're not likely to hold enough for a mid December bottom
2012-11-19 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, we continue to improve
2012-11-19 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then affirm this time period as being important
2012-11-19 17:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume McClellan's
2012-11-19 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excellent volume plurality today
2012-11-19 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some of the volume MCO's moving to new reaction highs today
2012-11-19 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no wonder
2012-11-19 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 15:2 ratio on the NYSE U/D today
2012-11-19 17:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but notice here again
2012-11-19 17:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that all of the volume MCO components remain well below their zero lines
2012-11-19 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this was a heavy duty short covering rally
2012-11-19 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no fresh buying
2012-11-19 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should be verified by the volume oscillators...let's take a look
2012-11-19 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are not climactic
2012-11-19 17:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's relieved their compression today
2012-11-19 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the SPX and NDX VTO's still haven't, as yet, moved to "oversold"
2012-11-19 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which again suggests this being a rally of "relief"
2012-11-19 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not the start of a thrust
2012-11-19 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 53
2012-11-19 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2012-11-19 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-11-19 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not highly so
2012-11-19 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .66
2012-11-19 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2012-11-19 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much movement considering a 2% move
2012-11-19 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .73
2012-11-19 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.02
2012-11-19 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what else is going on
2012-11-19 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's 14.26 positive volume ratio was the highest one since August lows
2012-11-19 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is attempting to find a bottom here
2012-11-19 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the hammer tails created on Friday are going to be hard to break
2012-11-19 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could mean we just trade sideways with a high degree of chop like we saw last November
2012-11-19 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "remember the Black Friday lows" from last year
2012-11-19 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Eliades New 10 TRIN moved to levels usually seen with important lows last week
2012-11-19 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-11-19 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 3 year chart
2012-11-19 17:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime we've seen high readings like we saw last week we were about a week or two from a pattern low
2012-11-19 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-11-19 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was an important day for the bulls
2012-11-19 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they needed to see an abrupt turnaround near term in order to save themselves from sticky situation
2012-11-19 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today was only that of a technical bounce
2012-11-19 17:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and aside any possible follow through at the open on Tuesday
2012-11-19 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next couple of days are likely to be choppy and sideways going into the holiday
2012-11-19 17:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a pretty good chance of a down day on Friday
2012-11-19 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Apple has major resistance just above between 570 and 575
2012-11-19 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't expect much more above these levels
2012-11-19 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it closed at 565 today..up 7%
2012-11-19 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-19 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the Utilities for a moment
2012-11-19 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...the charts there look really awful
2012-11-19 17:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to do some research on this one
2012-11-19 17:35:54 [Message] hkk -> Chat: how are you using the MCSUM to forecast a mid dec low as you did with the mid oct top?
2012-11-19 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-11-19 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we broke down below our divergent lows
2012-11-19 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it then cancelled the opportunity for a mid November bottom
2012-11-19 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the following week we had our technical damage
2012-11-19 17:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually it takes about 3-4 weeks to rebuild structure
2012-11-19 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the time it takes to travel from one 250 multiple to the other
2012-11-19 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gives us this projection in relation to the "time" it will take to rebuild a platform
2012-11-19 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2012-11-19 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we continue to get good breadth figures tomorrow
2012-11-19 17:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this moves the NYSE composite MCSUM toward its zero line
2012-11-19 17:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be another building block toward this same forecast
2012-11-19 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would suggest better underlying strength than most believe there is right now
2012-11-19 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, we just fall away to the downside
2012-11-19 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important area to help support the mid December time period will be how the MCSUM reacts at the -250 level
2012-11-19 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that many of the MCSUM's are now "oversold"
2012-11-19 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the broader market can maintain a firmer foot
2012-11-19 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then our expectation of higher price highs going into the spring of next year improves considerably
2012-11-19 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2012-11-19 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I'm reading about is that we are in an intermediate term downtrend
2012-11-19 17:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which hasn't really been confirmed as yet by the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2012-11-19 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this negative sentiment will tend to keep prices from continuing to decay
2012-11-19 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least importantly
2012-11-19 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2012-11-19 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the blueprint from last week suggested an important low was near
2012-11-19 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so good
2012-11-19 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we broke to new lows on the MCO's
2012-11-19 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have new flags to work with
2012-11-19 17:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take 2-3 weeks to build another structure of texture worthy enough to support the ladder
2012-11-19 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there will be another opportunity to short here
2012-11-19 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just may not come until next week
2012-11-19 17:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-11-19 17:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2012-11-19 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next chat will be tomorrow
2012-11-19 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we're off for the rest of the week
2012-11-19 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to Tuesday/Thursday next week
2012-11-19 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our goal here
2012-11-19 17:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is very simple
2012-11-19 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sooner we pick up the rhythm
2012-11-19 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the quicker we'll pick up the beat 
2012-11-19 17:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2012-11-19 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-11-19 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great Tuesday
2012-11-19 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again 22 hours from now
2012-11-19 17:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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