All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,419
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-11-18 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-11-18 16:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-11-18 16:00:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Doing well-hitting and running as instructed.
2010-11-18 16:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's the perfect play, isn't it?
2010-11-18 16:00:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure is!
2010-11-18 16:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I really like the action of the last couple of days
2010-11-18 16:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully we have finished up our snapbacks to zero...and if that's the case...this correction maybe over sooner than expected
2010-11-18 16:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-11-18 16:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Alright...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-11-18 16:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after setting a small base on Wednesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO powered higher today
2010-11-18 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you had the time yesterday to look you would had noticed that we had fulfilled our snapback to what was broken horizontal support on several of the index breadth MCO charts
2010-11-18 16:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then instead of moving down to test again today, we skipped that, and powered to or toward the zero line
2010-11-18 16:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking down at the components
2010-11-18 16:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that today's action pushed the 10% Index back into positive territory indicating that we're in a correction at this juncture and nothing more than that
2010-11-18 16:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that our travel towards the MCO zero line has slowed the downward pace of the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM as it approaches its first potential support area - +500
2010-11-18 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this shows once again that even in what may look like chaotic behavior...there IS order
2010-11-18 16:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price chart
2010-11-18 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also found our initial support near the 7400 level as well yesterday
2010-11-18 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then...things look fine and dandy...let's move on
2010-11-18 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of structure with the composite NYSE breadth MCO and its components
2010-11-18 16:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still indicating corrective behavior
2010-11-18 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no indication of a change in the trend as yet
2010-11-18 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small island reversal today on the NASDAQ price chart
2010-11-18 16:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had an inside range day yesterday indicating that today would likely be an up close
2010-11-18 16:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NYSE data, the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved sharply higher today
2010-11-18 16:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that we're near the +250 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2010-11-18 16:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably going to see some follow through action tomorrow to stall the pattern at this magical level
2010-11-18 16:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an acceleration through this level, however, would then push us towards the zero line in quick fashion
2010-11-18 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember something important here
2010-11-18 16:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will always have a harder time moving in the direction of a trend if there is a sever imbalance between buyers and sellers
2010-11-18 16:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these imbalance points are what we call extremes in oscillators
2010-11-18 16:15:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: What would you comment as to the lack of texture if the mco's zip right up to or thought the zero line in the next few days as for the coming weeks?
2010-11-18 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's the markets job to bring balance between these two sides of opinions so that thrusts, and follow through of those thrust points, can be maintained
2010-11-18 16:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime there is a lack of texture in the MCO
2010-11-18 16:15:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: Do you think some texture is impt for the bullish case moving forward?
2010-11-18 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it suggests that money is moving too far too fast
2010-11-18 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually is on the back of something of a news event
2010-11-18 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: texture is ALWAYS important for the bullish case
2010-11-18 16:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much so for the bearish one
2010-11-18 16:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason being that humans are quick to panic, but slow to embrace
2010-11-18 16:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the markets are that of bears by default
2010-11-18 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes a good structural foundation to support a pattern pattern's direction against this same default
2010-11-18 16:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more sound it is, when buyers are able to slowly out number sellers, only then can price pattern structures survive "surprises"
2010-11-18 16:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we have done on the last 3 or 4 days now is that we have aired things out on both sides
2010-11-18 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is very little compression now
2010-11-18 16:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many traders have now picked a side to work with
2010-11-18 16:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not everything is balanced
2010-11-18 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will happen when we get the MCSUM's closer to their zero lines
2010-11-18 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2010-11-18 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we show bottoms above bottoms structures in the various MCO's
2010-11-18 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each bottom being a lessening of shorter term sellers
2010-11-18 16:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the less the sellers, the more readily that prices can be bid higher
2010-11-18 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX price pattern also gapped up today
2010-11-18 16:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you will notice that it closed near the mid range of the price bar
2010-11-18 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that short covering is just about done
2010-11-18 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minus any last minute nervous shorts that may come in at the open on Friday
2010-11-18 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this "reflex" rally is just about complete based solely on the chart pattern
2010-11-18 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was also a great example of what a "reflex" rally looks like
2010-11-18 16:22:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: perfect-and you called it VERY well!
2010-11-18 16:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the reflex is just as dramatic as the move lower, but there isn't quite enough to cover the percentage move in total
2010-11-18 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like putting your arm in a bathtub full of water and swishing the water to one side and letting it move in the opposite direction
2010-11-18 16:23:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: so for a better shot at new yearly highs, rather than a reflex rally, you would like to see better texture on this move up on the mco's, though certainly, it is not required as we have all seen plenty of V bottoms too.
2010-11-18 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it usually does so, but the amplitude isn't quite as dramatic
2010-11-18 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2010-11-18 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the amount of time we have spent above the zero line
2010-11-18 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be a reasonable expectation that we should see more backing and filling before we can once again attempt to move to higher price highs
2010-11-18 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we didn't have here (at least so far) is a full technical collapse as we had in the May period
2010-11-18 16:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2010-11-18 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of the fact that we were able to move towards the zero line quicker than what our initial blueprint from Tuesday suggested
2010-11-18 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now highly likely that this current pullback will be shorter timed than once believed
2010-11-18 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind that the MCO is measuring the speed in which the 19 day EMA is moving towards the 39 day EMA
2010-11-18 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even more importantly
2010-11-18 16:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the position of the NYAD line itself is paramount in making correct forecasting targets for the price action itself
2010-11-18 16:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...the NYAD line remains in a bullish configuration
2010-11-18 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me check
2010-11-18 16:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold on
2010-11-18 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...back into a bullish configuration
2010-11-18 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, I do NOT expect this to be the case come tomorrow
2010-11-18 16:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation once any pattern breaks its short term trend line
2010-11-18 16:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to find support at the intermediate (which we did)
2010-11-18 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then snapback to the short term trend (which was accomplished today)
2010-11-18 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this is done we should then move back down to the intermediate (EMA) trend for a test
2010-11-18 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the job for the NYAD line now
2010-11-18 16:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to pull the line itself far enough where it can take the 19 day EMA and test the 39 day EMA
2010-11-18 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's it
2010-11-18 16:29:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think NYAD also just snapped back to the broken uptrend line
2010-11-18 16:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if then we break far enough below the 39 day EMA enough to pull the NYAD line to a point in which this same EMA will not hold the shorter term EMA
2010-11-18 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN we know that the correction is going be that of weeks to months
2010-11-18 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right's only days to weeks - it's a short term correction
2010-11-18 16:31:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: like Feb and August 2010
2010-11-18 16:31:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: as opposed to the May correction
2010-11-18 16:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if what happened on Tuesday took place with the NYAD line already either in a corrective bullish configuration, or an "On Your Mark" sell signal, then the analysis would be quite different
2010-11-18 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we MUST respect the level of liquidity here being as ample at it is
2010-11-18 16:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that unless we can bring better balance between buyers and sellers
2010-11-18 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this case, build more angst in traders that the trend can NOT continue to move higher
2010-11-18 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the advance will struggle just as it did for the last month
2010-11-18 16:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be moving higher...but it will be tough going
2010-11-18 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (reading Doc's posts)
2010-11-18 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually
2010-11-18 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rising trendline in the NYAD line's just below the 39 day EMA
2010-11-18 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the combo chart
2010-11-18 16:35:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: I was looking at the trendline from July lows
2010-11-18 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-18 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am too (see chart)
2010-11-18 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...although things look kinda scary here
2010-11-18 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reaction off the lows of Tuesday seem very constructive at this juncture
2010-11-18 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we saw such a lopsided intraday reading on breadth plurality
2010-11-18 16:37:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: My trendline looks slightly different
2010-11-18 16:37:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: but i think its my fault
2010-11-18 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might had been climactic behavior
2010-11-18 16:37:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: for using a log chart
2010-11-18 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: naughty boy
2010-11-18 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't use a log chart for the A/D line
2010-11-18 16:38:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: first thing I checked for and there it was
2010-11-18 16:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are not measuring percentages here
2010-11-18 16:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all raw data
2010-11-18 16:38:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-11-18 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a good point
2010-11-18 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have seen some use the log scale to provide a longer term look at the line
2010-11-18 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't really mean anything
2010-11-18 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to have to post my longer term charts soon so you can see what things look like
2010-11-18 16:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have data going back to 1926
2010-11-18 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's the structures from 1940 that are interesting
2010-11-18 16:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since everyone here is a weekly breadth subscriber (except one...and he knows who he is) I will post them there
2010-11-18 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not this weekend...then next
2010-11-18 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...back to the charts
2010-11-18 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also moved briskly higher today
2010-11-18 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that this zero line snapback is slowing the rate of decline in the NDX breadth MCSUM just where we saw horizontal support in October
2010-11-18 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that this level is just above the +750 level which should add a bit more support
2010-11-18 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-11-18 16:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that could happen here given the holiday coming up
2010-11-18 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we do find support at this "rules of 250" level for about a week or so
2010-11-18 16:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then break down these levels after the holiday
2010-11-18 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speculation at this point - but it's something to watch for
2010-11-18 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved higher today
2010-11-18 16:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice the nice "oversold" spikes left behind on all of this breadth MCO's
2010-11-18 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-11-18 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is for the pattern to continue to make its way towards the +500 level
2010-11-18 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this was the area where we started to see congestion form in the MCSUM back in October
2010-11-18 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO seems to lagging the data charts we just went through
2010-11-18 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the OEX breadth MCSUM at its +500 level
2010-11-18 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bullish expectation would be for a up close tomorrow being led by the cream stocks
2010-11-18 16:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little confirmation by the broad market..a mixed closed
2010-11-18 16:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if the "brass" are following the path already laid out by the "troops" today
2010-11-18 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also remains "oversold" here
2010-11-18 16:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so being that the Dow is the cream of the cream, we'll probably see nice close with this index tomorrow
2010-11-18 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice could be defined as 50 points
2010-11-18 16:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it momentum follow through to today's reflex
2010-11-18 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCO
2010-11-18 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see the consistency we just talked about with the troops leading the way and the brass "falling back" and maybe playing catch up
2010-11-18 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ultimate support here with the MID breadth MCSUM seems to be at the +250 level
2010-11-18 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep in mind
2010-11-18 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during strongly trending markets
2010-11-18 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the -250 (for bull moves) and +250 (for bear moves) that tend to suggest washout areas of either support or resistance
2010-11-18 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more we get towards toward neutral then
2010-11-18 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then even intensify the washout by going below the MCSUM zero line
2010-11-18 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the foundational support to build an advancing price structure
2010-11-18 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: caveat....there also needs to be bottoms above bottoms development with the MCO while this is taking place
2010-11-18 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short term supports the intermediate
2010-11-18 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like a simple price pattern
2010-11-18 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it moves in a direction...pauses...looks around for further support of those levels...and only then can it continue in the prevailing direction
2010-11-18 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing happens here when we measure the velocity of money flow
2010-11-18 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback in the SML data could be complete here
2010-11-18 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern both gaping higher and leaving an island pattern behind
2010-11-18 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closing the gap that was created on Tuesday
2010-11-18 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since this gap was filled quickly, it would be classified as a "pattern gap"
2010-11-18 16:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much emotion causes these "pockets of air"
2010-11-18 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we talked about on Tuesday
2010-11-18 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when these occur, we usually see an equal and opposite effect quite quickly
2010-11-18 16:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the minimal expectation of a snapback has also been satisfied with the TM breadth MCO data as well
2010-11-18 16:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-11-18 16:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice recovery so far
2010-11-18 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the length of time that the bulls have had control
2010-11-18 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is still not a buying op as yet
2010-11-18 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: constructive?
2010-11-18 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2010-11-18 16:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to see how sentiment becomes on the back and filling portion coming up
2010-11-18 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a quick gander at the sector breadth McClellan's
2010-11-18 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP has a lot of work to do before it's ready again to move higher
2010-11-18 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE remains bullish here
2010-11-18 16:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that the energy sector is about 3-4 months behind the pattern of gold
2010-11-18 16:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have some unfinished business there I would surmise
2010-11-18 16:59:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I didn't care for the action in the gold sector today
2010-11-18 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no...I'm not unhappy that I closed my positions on Tuesday
2010-11-18 16:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to do that than to wonder...I can always come back
2010-11-18 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't looked at gold...let me bring up a chart
2010-11-18 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know that spot was up some $18 at one point
2010-11-18 17:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and silver was up a bone
2010-11-18 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver looks great
2010-11-18 17:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is correcting
2010-11-18 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you apply a 20 day and 50 day EMA to both price charts
2010-11-18 17:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that silver held its short term EMA
2010-11-18 17:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while gold held its intermediate term and then found resistance at the 20 today
2010-11-18 17:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's locked in now
2010-11-18 17:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let it rest!
2010-11-18 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-18 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it deserves it
2010-11-18 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing suggesting a top there
2010-11-18 17:02:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it won't need my approval, lol
2010-11-18 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides...I have higher objectives still to be met
2010-11-18 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these guys in DC will make sure that gold will continue to move higher
2010-11-18 17:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and silver is just reacting as the poor man's gold as it's always been
2010-11-18 17:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still love SLW
2010-11-18 17:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kinda kicking myself in closing that position
2010-11-18 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCSUM looks like its created an inverted ledge here
2010-11-18 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I wouldn't exactly run out and buy this sector now
2010-11-18 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2010-11-18 17:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't at all be surprised by its leadership over the next couple of days...maybe weeks
2010-11-18 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also keep prices from moving lower in any significant fashion
2010-11-18 17:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did anyone play the bounce in XLF?
2010-11-18 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Doc?
2010-11-18 17:05:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-11-18 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...did you play XLF today?
2010-11-18 17:06:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: sold my FAS at small loss and bought FAZ at the close
2010-11-18 17:06:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: all tech for me
2010-11-18 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...thanks for sharing
2010-11-18 17:06:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: small amnt
2010-11-18 17:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLF breadth MCO
2010-11-18 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that we were able to move above our reaction highs of earlier in the week
2010-11-18 17:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that just about all of the major selling is out
2010-11-18 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we have a nice flag left behind
2010-11-18 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the chart further
2010-11-18 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is another flag point
2010-11-18 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have another bottom above a bottom in place
2010-11-18 17:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could mean that we just finished a snapback in the price pattern
2010-11-18 17:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still some work to be done with the new flag
2010-11-18 17:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we hold here...this MCO extreme could be the point of solid base
2010-11-18 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 10% component snapback on the XLV is now complete
2010-11-18 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm going to leave that sector alone until we get more information
2010-11-18 17:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to add another scenario here
2010-11-18 17:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the way the price structures are looking here
2010-11-18 17:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the unlikely event that prices move to new highs over the next week
2010-11-18 17:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2010-11-18 17:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see the respected MCO's move to higher highs with these price pattern moves
2010-11-18 17:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may have seen all we're going to see as far as a correction is concerned given the high amount of liquidity that remains in the system
2010-11-18 17:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we've talked about that if the market were to pull back, the lack of liquidity was NOT going to be the reason
2010-11-18 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was going to be something that was news worthy
2010-11-18 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...this remains the best interpretation overall
2010-11-18 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we must remain on guard to surprises to the upside
2010-11-18 17:13:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what higher highs in the mco's-meaning-higher than what?
2010-11-18 17:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the MCSUM's continue to be (for the most part) in "overbought" territory
2010-11-18 17:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the failure highs of last week
2010-11-18 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the highs in which we broke up to from our compression patterns and then failed to follow through
2010-11-18 17:14:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2010-11-18 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can now get that follow through after violently shaking the tree then we might have a go here
2010-11-18 17:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it a reasonable expectation?
2010-11-18 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no
2010-11-18 17:14:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2010-11-18 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must respect the current price pattern structure until we see a top beneath a top
2010-11-18 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that occurs...the trend remains up
2010-11-18 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLU breadth MCSUM is now back below its zero line for the first time since July
2010-11-18 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so going back to the thought of buyers and sellers being evened up
2010-11-18 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should watch this sector for a potential internal low
2010-11-18 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more times than not
2010-11-18 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the utilities lead the industrials by anywhere from 2-4 weeks in direction
2010-11-18 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the UTE's start to show positive money flow here
2010-11-18 17:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be a sector worth playing long
2010-11-18 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a nice double bottom structure in place now on the XLU breadth MCO
2010-11-18 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a little more down to or towards the -250 level on the XLU breadth MCSUM
2010-11-18 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a divergent bottom on the XLU breadth MCO and that should do it
2010-11-18 17:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it looks next week
2010-11-18 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder...Monday and Tuesday next Thursday chat because of the holiday
2010-11-18 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving quickly through the volume MCO's
2010-11-18 17:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the exception of the MID and SML volume MCO's
2010-11-18 17:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the rest are lagging terribly to their breadth cousins
2010-11-18 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a solid indication of today's move being that of strictly short covering
2010-11-18 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as no new volume is being realized
2010-11-18 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add to that the gap higher...and the way the pattern closed near its mid range...and it's a good way to provide substantive evidence of this being that of short covering as opposed to fresh buying
2010-11-18 17:22:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: I just had a thought
2010-11-18 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go on
2010-11-18 17:22:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: I wonder if large gaps either way tend to lead to lower volumes
2010-11-18 17:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I'll give my fingers a rest)
2010-11-18 17:23:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: as many feel like they have missed the boat
2010-11-18 17:23:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: and wait for a retrace
2010-11-18 17:23:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: except perhaps during initiation thrusts
2010-11-18 17:23:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: or points of recognition
2010-11-18 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gaps are created by a vacuum...a near term imbalance between buyers and sellers
2010-11-18 17:24:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: I thought gaps were created by the night monkeys
2010-11-18 17:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...yes...we will usually see gaps with low "average" volume
2010-11-18 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these days...they can be
2010-11-18 17:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you look at a stock chart
2010-11-18 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not an index
2010-11-18 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I can't even say that these days, can I?
2010-11-18 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ohhhh...the days of old...where did they go?
2010-11-18 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-11-18 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gaps are created when an imbalance is present and a vacuum is created
2010-11-18 17:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much too fast
2010-11-18 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually emotionally based
2010-11-18 17:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like everyone trying to get through a revolving door all at one time
2010-11-18 17:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the majority getting crushed
2010-11-18 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some make it...the majority get nothing
2010-11-18 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does make it tough to trade
2010-11-18 17:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like today
2010-11-18 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the action is within the first hour
2010-11-18 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then nothing
2010-11-18 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless you trade can't really make a move, can you?
2010-11-18 17:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless....
2010-11-18 17:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern is trending
2010-11-18 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you don't really care
2010-11-18 17:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why I find it important these days to trend trade than it would be to day trade
2010-11-18 17:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides being more calming
2010-11-18 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't feel like you've been screwed having to wait for the cash market to open
2010-11-18 17:28:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: gm same-only those in on IPO making any money-and not much, at that
2010-11-18 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: options are an alternative
2010-11-18 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I's frustrating
2010-11-18 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't get me started on that IPO
2010-11-18 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what a joke
2010-11-18 17:29:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: totally
2010-11-18 17:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder how much money "special interests" in DC made on that
2010-11-18 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never mind...onward
2010-11-18 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after indicating a bottom in the next two trading days on Tuesday, the CVI's are now back above their zero lines
2010-11-18 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we should expect a snapback to the zero line near term
2010-11-18 17:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we continue to move higher from here
2010-11-18 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would not be a healthy thing near term
2010-11-18 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something like that could present a nice short entry
2010-11-18 17:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we can pull back to zero BEFORE moving to "overbought"
2010-11-18 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be short term bullish...and provide a better short entry
2010-11-18 17:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (based more on the rhythm than anything else)
2010-11-18 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always better to find a rhythm that you can trade than to position yourself in a market that is having trouble "coping"
2010-11-18 17:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now "oversold"
2010-11-18 17:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce is indicated there
2010-11-18 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could lead us to some choppy upward action for another several days
2010-11-18 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprisingly
2010-11-18 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .56
2010-11-18 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now minimally "oversold" at 1.00
2010-11-18 17:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .79
2010-11-18 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.15
2010-11-18 17:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-11-18 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .70
2010-11-18 17:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08..."oversold"
2010-11-18 17:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-11-18 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to give a slight nod to the bulls for Friday
2010-11-18 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some continuation of the bounce from today
2010-11-18 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wouldn't expect too much of a change at the end of the day
2010-11-18 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: depending on how Monday goes, this will tell us what should be expected for the rest of the month
2010-11-18 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...I would look for chop
2010-11-18 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the two sides battle it out
2010-11-18 17:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10 day average of the OEX P/C ratio has now collapsed
2010-11-18 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's good news
2010-11-18 17:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of 1.01
2010-11-18 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything above 1.00 is usually washout
2010-11-18 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey did you like the way the call premiums evaporated??
2010-11-18 17:38:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: like melting butter
2010-11-18 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what happens at the end of wave 3's
2010-11-18 17:38:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-11-18 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still playing with the wave 4 idea here
2010-11-18 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when wave 5 ends
2010-11-18 17:39:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I sure am
2010-11-18 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the premiums will be up there...but they will diverge...keep us updated on that, OK?
2010-11-18 17:39:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will do
2010-11-18 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what else do you guys want to talk about?
2010-11-18 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my hope is that things will be ho hum early next week so we'll have time to review global and sector ETF's
2010-11-18 17:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else at all?
2010-11-18 17:41:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I can't help but see little left upside here, vst
2010-11-18 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2010-11-18 17:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be choppy
2010-11-18 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX and Dow showing the better strength and the broader market not so much so
2010-11-18 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should make for good conversation over the weekend such as...
2010-11-18 17:42:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: Seems as though the markets are still tightly and inversely correlated with the USD. Would you like to go over a USD chart?
2010-11-18 17:43:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sentiment today bothers me, as well
2010-11-18 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "the market collapsed on news from Europe, but then came back nicely when there were rumors that things were going to be fixed" this kind of thing
2010-11-18 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me bring the dollar chart up
2010-11-18 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...
2010-11-18 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was the reason why we had a terrible Tuesday
2010-11-18 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the USD broke above the 50 day EMA
2010-11-18 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was significant
2010-11-18 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmmm
2010-11-18 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still looking like an irregular flat here
2010-11-18 17:45:04 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I can't help thinking that it looks a bit manufactured. I don't think there was any doubt that Ireland would be bailed out if they wanted to.
2010-11-18 17:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2010-11-18 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but governments have very little power in these things
2010-11-18 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can nudge..but they can't maintain pattern (look at QE 2)
2010-11-18 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to see how things go over the weekend
2010-11-18 17:46:29 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Maybe this was used as an excuse to take the market down before the GM IPO?
2010-11-18 17:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what they were saying on CNBC this morning
2010-11-18 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that makes no sense to me
2010-11-18 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're an IPO
2010-11-18 17:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't want the market to want it to move higher so that there will be interest in the product
2010-11-18 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...
2010-11-18 17:47:30 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Would it not be an advantage to the banks conducting the IPO?
2010-11-18 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they decided - all of a sudden - to issue more shares because of demand
2010-11-18 17:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I don't think so in this case
2010-11-18 17:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2010-11-18 17:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when they decided to issue more shares
2010-11-18 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they raised the IPO price as well
2010-11-18 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN
2010-11-18 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it opened up 7% above that
2010-11-18 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so why have a decline in the markets?
2010-11-18 17:48:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a ton of selling demand on the open, lol
2010-11-18 17:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just doesn't make sense if you think about it
2010-11-18 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the talking heads
2010-11-18 17:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who have absolutely no idea why something happens
2010-11-18 17:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have to come up with something "timely" to explain it
2010-11-18 17:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see this all the time
2010-11-18 17:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2010-11-18 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and I haven't heard anything at all)
2010-11-18 17:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I will bet you a large lunch that the press will report that "today's rally was because everyone was excited/happy that GM came back as a listed stock today"
2010-11-18 17:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which you know is total BS
2010-11-18 17:50:57 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: sure
2010-11-18 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a nice way to explain to Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley why the Dow was up almost 2%
2010-11-18 17:51:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it dropped from start to finish, "bullish" lol
2010-11-18 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right
2010-11-18 17:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-11-18 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have Stockcharts feeding me stuff on my FB page
2010-11-18 17:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I just busted out laughing because they showed a 1 minute chart of GM today to show that it had a trend to trade!!!
2010-11-18 17:52:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: trended all day, lol
2010-11-18 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they got caught up in the whole thing too
2010-11-18 17:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did
2010-11-18 17:52:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Futures started going up immediately after the close yesterday and never looked back.
2010-11-18 17:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I wonder how many people still think that GM trades in the Dow?
2010-11-18 17:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2010-11-18 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wasn't because of GM
2010-11-18 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was the news item of the day
2010-11-18 17:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals forecasted this bounce on Tuesday
2010-11-18 17:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but only after breadth led the way
2010-11-18 17:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it did so on Wednesday in spite of a ho hum day
2010-11-18 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nuff said on that
2010-11-18 17:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-11-18 17:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more thing
2010-11-18 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then I guess when the market declines...
2010-11-18 17:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be because of GM moving below its issue price?
2010-11-18 17:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all bull
2010-11-18 17:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (could be cow...but bull is good)
2010-11-18 17:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2010-11-18 17:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-11-18 17:55:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx!
2010-11-18 17:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2010-11-18 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll hook up again on MONDAY
2010-11-18 17:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch