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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-11-18 19:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-11-18 19:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-11-18 19:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ooooooooooooooook...that good eh?
2008-11-18 19:03:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I will get by
2008-11-18 19:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions, comments, or antidotes to share???
2008-11-18 19:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: btw...before we go on
2008-11-18 19:06:05 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: spx daily stayed within the rectangle
2008-11-18 19:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you haven't been checking out Hiker's Habitat lately, you should...thanks Steve!
2008-11-18 19:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...the infamous consolidation pattern...
2008-11-18 19:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meanwhile...the internals continue to be more and more defensive
2008-11-18 19:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we kind of thought that we would continue to chop around last Thursday anyway
2008-11-18 19:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no follow through on the reversal bar, and now we're starting to see lower lows in several sectors
2008-11-18 19:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with no tidbit of a bottom as yet
2008-11-18 19:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...
2008-11-18 19:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since there doesn't seem to be anything to discuss...let's get into DP and see what's happening
2008-11-18 19:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved slightly higher today
2008-11-18 19:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and continues to support a pattern of bottoms above bottoms
2008-11-18 19:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving to the components, there we continue to be on a crossover sell signal
2008-11-18 19:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and well below the zero line for both of the components
2008-11-18 19:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the lack of movement, either higher or lower, in the MCO continues to show a pattern of declining MCSUM postings
2008-11-18 19:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where one of two things are probably going to happen in the next couple of days
2008-11-18 19:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1) we fall off the cliff or
2008-11-18 19:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2) we're developing divergence on an intermediate term basis
2008-11-18 19:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other thing to keep in mind is this
2008-11-18 19:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM as deeply "oversold" as it is, it does become difficult for the MCO itself to move away below the zero line
2008-11-18 19:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...technically, we could be in store for a short term relief rally of sorts
2008-11-18 19:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not so much in the way of price, but more in the area of stability
2008-11-18 19:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in advance..you'll have to excuse me...we've been very busy today and I may sound a bit scattered at times
2008-11-18 19:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for the bulls, it's one step at a time
2008-11-18 19:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first we have to move above the snapback area of the MCO zero line
2008-11-18 19:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then we still have the blip resistance area to overcome before we can see a more decisive bounce off of these same intermediate term "oversold" levels
2008-11-18 19:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lots of work...and it's going to take time
2008-11-18 19:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have a small point change today on the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-11-18 19:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2008-11-18 19:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately, structure wise
2008-11-18 19:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unlike the commons
2008-11-18 19:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO did move to lower lows yesterday, and stayed below this same level today
2008-11-18 19:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this basically gives us a reset to the pattern
2008-11-18 19:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and calls into question whether or not this current test of the 8000 level on the Dow will hold or not
2008-11-18 19:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would also mean, last Thursday's reversal wasn't a natural event
2008-11-18 19:19:43 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the dramatic move idea..any direction most probable?
2008-11-18 19:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that something put it's thumb on the natural tendency of how bottoms are created
2008-11-18 19:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...
2008-11-18 19:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's so far a mixed bag
2008-11-18 19:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have the commons holding structurally
2008-11-18 19:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the broader market - in this case with the interest rate sensitive issues - are not in good shape
2008-11-18 19:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market remains decidedly heavy...and vulnerable
2008-11-18 19:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact...looking at the internals at around 14:00 today, and we had close to a 20/80 plurality again
2008-11-18 19:22:26 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: when you have time take a look at SPX 846, and how the early 2003 monthly closes were slightly above or below this price level that has seen very few SPX 60-minute closes since Oct 10...just a data item about which I am curious..esp since it held for all but one 60-minute candle close once again today
2008-11-18 19:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we were building momentum divergence with the lesser time frames as well
2008-11-18 19:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remind me later...and I'll take a peek
2008-11-18 19:23:15 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: few candle closes below 846 SPX on the 60min since OCT 10
2008-11-18 19:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, there are definite lines in the sand here
2008-11-18 19:23:34 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I will be gone..ty
2008-11-18 19:23:40 [Message] lew -> Main Room: bears look weak here to me, though, as well
2008-11-18 19:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in that case... one moment
2008-11-18 19:24:02 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: Jan to April 2003 monthly closes
2008-11-18 19:24:30 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: and the final month monthly low as the thrust up launch point
2008-11-18 19:24:38 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: right at 846
2008-11-18 19:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm having problems seeing it between the monthly and hourly
2008-11-18 19:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you've posted this before?
2008-11-18 19:26:38 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ck out the monthly SPX thread at HH>>
2008-11-18 19:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-18 19:26:52 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: no, I have not posted it before
2008-11-18 19:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...will do...
2008-11-18 19:27:15 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: noticed it today when the premarket gurus were all talking about SPX support at 846
2008-11-18 19:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 820 seems to be important as well
2008-11-18 19:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event...
2008-11-18 19:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as long as money continues to flow at this pace, it won't be too much longer before we collapse below both of these levels
2008-11-18 19:28:54 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: yes, it is just the idea of the cluster of monthly closes from early 2003 that is now defining the 60min SPX close lows since Oct 10...simply hard not to notice this level is a big deal in the moment
2008-11-18 19:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it seems to me that too many technicians are looking at the same thing right now, and this tends to to work against them
2008-11-18 19:29:46 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ok, fib, I believe the same..just accepting reality that the chart continues to say 846 area is impt for some reason
2008-11-18 19:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: acknowledged...no argument here
2008-11-18 19:30:22 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: "dramatic" means 7 to 10% move, I presume, based on current volatility situation?
2008-11-18 19:30:35 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ok...I will give it up as meaningful chart data, if it is simply self-fulfilling observation
2008-11-18 19:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's problematic here is that we continue to show very high negative plurality levels right now in the face of a extreme "oversold" readings on many fronts
2008-11-18 19:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol - could be geo
2008-11-18 19:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're still locked in a consolidation that covers a 20% range
2008-11-18 19:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the data
2008-11-18 19:33:33 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: 1% used to be big deal. YM already down 1% in Globex
2008-11-18 19:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bears, the best thing that can happen now on the composite NYSE breadth MCO would be a break of the divergent lows of October
2008-11-18 19:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this should happen, we will finally be able to break out of the current consolidation range to the downside
2008-11-18 19:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on one end, could this happen during OPEX?
2008-11-18 19:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other, the likelihood of this happening with the lack of quality in the last couple of days sure sounds like a reasonable expectation
2008-11-18 19:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one things for sure
2008-11-18 19:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is on life support right now
2008-11-18 19:35:41 [Message] lew -> Main Room: with equity PC showing mom and dad shorter than midgets?
2008-11-18 19:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that too
2008-11-18 19:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the tide is so strong right now
2008-11-18 19:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that any attempt to relieve these same extremes is slowly slipping away
2008-11-18 19:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we can just continue to drip lower, and lower, and lower
2008-11-18 19:36:57 [Message] lew -> Main Room: is it, market on a cliff several times, bears can't give it the easy push off
2008-11-18 19:37:08 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Yet the Dow can move up 400 points in 15 minutes
2008-11-18 19:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's technically a tough market right now
2008-11-18 19:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OH, yea, one other point
2008-11-18 19:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I had about 30 minutes to read what others were thinking on Sunday before something else came up
2008-11-18 19:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and was reading about this confusion about divergences
2008-11-18 19:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone should know...and if you don't, the last couple of weeks will help drive this point home
2008-11-18 19:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the flow of money is moving in direct opposite of these same divergences, they really don't give us any kind of technical merit to work with
2008-11-18 19:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these "divergences" - like the one we have seen in the MCO - are only showing that the rate of decay is slowing (in this case)
2008-11-18 19:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it doesn't mean that prices are poised to reverse for any length of time
2008-11-18 19:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it would be far better to look for bearish divergences when money is flowing negatively
2008-11-18 19:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until the same money starts moving in the direction of a divergent structure, it's really a low percentage play
2008-11-18 19:41:44 [Message] lew -> Main Room: then, where are the bearish divergences?
2008-11-18 19:41:49 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Are you referencing the A/D line for money flow?
2008-11-18 19:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the problem Lew
2008-11-18 19:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...the A/D line is the premiere indicator of money flow
2008-11-18 19:42:19 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: TY
2008-11-18 19:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything technical in basis has it's beginnings with the A/D line
2008-11-18 19:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for Lew...
2008-11-18 19:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can't have bearish divergences until we are able to relieve these same "oversold" readings of a higher time periods
2008-11-18 19:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...small period time frames work out
2008-11-18 19:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but only if you keep it simple
2008-11-18 19:43:43 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y, thx
2008-11-18 19:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to clarify again...
2008-11-18 19:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this continuing notion of keeping things simple only applies times when the elasticity of the market is at such a point in which something has to give or the rubber band will break
2008-11-18 19:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have no direction if we use the MCSUM right now...only because it's as extreme as it gets
2008-11-18 19:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have better direction with the MCO, but it too has it's limitations during such rare extremes as we have right now
2008-11-18 19:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you have to look to the smaller time frames to help
2008-11-18 19:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when you do, you have to keep analytical tools to a bare minimum
2008-11-18 19:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise, your emotions in the way of what to focus on will tear you apart
2008-11-18 19:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wasn't able to watch intraday today, but in the last 4 weeks, the amount of volatility has presented some outstanding trades while we wait for a resolution
2008-11-18 19:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like we talked about back in mid October
2008-11-18 19:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and discussed again as recently as last Thursday
2008-11-18 19:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these kind of consolidation patterns that occur during crash (like) events can take a heavy toll on your capital if you attempt to one up the next direction that price might take next
2008-11-18 19:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also know that with the McSUM's being as "oversold" as they are, the likelihood of a sustained advance, even if the MCSUM turns higher, is very low
2008-11-18 19:50:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in fact, we will probably see lower price lows later on even if the MCSUM moves to the -1000 level
2008-11-18 19:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially with the turbulence going on right now
2008-11-18 19:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I better go on...I don't think I'm making much sense
2008-11-18 19:51:26 [Message] lew -> Main Room: no, perfect sense, thx
2008-11-18 19:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...we can call today another retest of the lows of October
2008-11-18 19:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the odds of a rally probably outweigh that of continued downside
2008-11-18 19:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we've seen this before, haven't we?
2008-11-18 19:52:33 [Message] lew -> Main Room: y, my take as well, and yes, NOT sustainable
2008-11-18 19:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the market has given us 900 and 700 Dow rallies to relieve this same "oversold" level before once again turning lower
2008-11-18 19:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're stuck here
2008-11-18 19:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the range is so large...
2008-11-18 19:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's probably the bigger point
2008-11-18 19:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're not trending
2008-11-18 19:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I guess you can call a horizontal price pattern a trend
2008-11-18 19:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it's not an easy way to make money
2008-11-18 19:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's see what else we have going on...
2008-11-18 19:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2008-11-18 19:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like the commons, bottoms above bottoms continue to control the pattern in spite of breadth being as horrible as its been
2008-11-18 19:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so in this sense, much of the selling, of those who wish OR want to sell, is behind us
2008-11-18 19:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but even more importantly
2008-11-18 19:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even though sellers are done...there's no buying either
2008-11-18 19:55:28 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Is there an explanation or precedent for the continued expanded daily range?
2008-11-18 19:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's our problem
2008-11-18 19:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why we just drift lower
2008-11-18 19:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: finding anyone out there that agrees of the value of a issue (or index)
2008-11-18 19:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and another good example of why we're always in a bear market
2008-11-18 19:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not with this amplitude Geo
2008-11-18 19:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the moves within this range are more in the seismic area
2008-11-18 19:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there's been other times we've seen things like this occur
2008-11-18 19:57:47 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: for this many days consistently?
2008-11-18 19:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and usually it's because of something big enough to cause future clarity into question
2008-11-18 19:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure
2008-11-18 19:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that we know that corrections can be that of price, time, or both
2008-11-18 19:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some believe that the future of the US government as to its stability is once again in question
2008-11-18 19:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: others...believe this is just another speed bump
2008-11-18 19:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: me?
2008-11-18 19:59:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my emotional side has an opinion
2008-11-18 19:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but my disciplined side tells me how to trade
2008-11-18 20:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's lots of questions out there right now
2008-11-18 20:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and lots of concerns
2008-11-18 20:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but as long as the market is allowed to sort things out....
2008-11-18 20:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key word in that last sentence is....allowed
2008-11-18 20:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO components
2008-11-18 20:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there we see that the 10% index is now testing the lows of last week, while the MCO itself is making a higher bottom
2008-11-18 20:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this could be the whisper that we're looking for at least a rally attempt
2008-11-18 20:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at the same time, it could be a shout out of further impending problems
2008-11-18 20:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words...the market is trying to hold the October lows at any cost
2008-11-18 20:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise, it could get nasty in a hurry as everyone throws in the towel
2008-11-18 20:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is a lot of stress out there
2008-11-18 20:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: both emotional and financial
2008-11-18 20:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we still haven't heard about the financial part in total yet
2008-11-18 20:04:54 [Message] lew -> Main Room: well we probably won't get tax selling lol
2008-11-18 20:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or we just might
2008-11-18 20:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any rumor of a change in the tax laws with the new Congress could set off a storm of renewed selling
2008-11-18 20:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: December is going to be a very tough decision making month for a whole slew of folks
2008-11-18 20:06:07 [Message] lew -> Main Room: take sure losses instead of possible ones?
2008-11-18 20:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's not counting those institutions who maybe forced to liquidate because of a lack of recovery
2008-11-18 20:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the old saying is...you let your profits run, and cut short your losses
2008-11-18 20:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately for many, that cut should have already taken place but hasn't as yet
2008-11-18 20:07:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: May be that massive gains are already offset by $3000 and then some
2008-11-18 20:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because they are being told of all of these divergences
2008-11-18 20:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that things are going to be OK now that we have "change" with a new government
2008-11-18 20:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or a thousand different reasons that are out there right now
2008-11-18 20:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...how about upping the limit on capital loss limits?
2008-11-18 20:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of all of the people in trouble in real estate
2008-11-18 20:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, we have quite a mess here
2008-11-18 20:09:01 [Message] lew -> Main Room: or erasing the capital gain tax for a while?
2008-11-18 20:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but to have more social engineering to get us out of this problem, the same thing that created it, is NOT the answer
2008-11-18 20:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does anyone have a capital gain?
2008-11-18 20:09:53 [Message] lew -> Main Room: future
2008-11-18 20:10:18 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I think it would spawn investment
2008-11-18 20:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..if they raise the taxes on capital gains, you can kiss the stock market good bye
2008-11-18 20:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Congress can't do that now anyway
2008-11-18 20:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they have too much money chasing after areas of liquidity keeping them busy
2008-11-18 20:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if they don't raise taxes directly
2008-11-18 20:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they will just let the 2002 tax cuts expire
2008-11-18 20:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so no matter how you look at it, your taxes will go higher within 2 years
2008-11-18 20:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and higher taxes is not something favorable for stock market investment
2008-11-18 20:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nor much in way of any financial vehicle
2008-11-18 20:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: folks..we are deflating here
2008-11-18 20:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no stagflation
2008-11-18 20:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or inflation
2008-11-18 20:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or disinflation
2008-11-18 20:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a true deflation
2008-11-18 20:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not nearly as bad as the 2000-2002 period....at least not yet
2008-11-18 20:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll just have to see how the brainiac's in DC (mis)handle the situation
2008-11-18 20:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but don't expect anything to come out if in your favor
2008-11-18 20:13:44 [Message] lew -> Main Room: during a deflation, can we not print, instead of raising taxes, short term?
2008-11-18 20:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's important for not only that we focus on capital appreciation, but also for capital preservation
2008-11-18 20:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: cash is king
2008-11-18 20:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2008-11-18 20:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the pattern pretty much mimics the commons right now
2008-11-18 20:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could fall off a cliff, or at least attempt to find some support at these levels
2008-11-18 20:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms remain on the NDX breadth MCO (barely)
2008-11-18 20:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO broke last weeks bottom yesterday
2008-11-18 20:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and is now attempting to find support in and around these same levels
2008-11-18 20:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but breaking of this same bottom of last week, also gives us another near term reset
2008-11-18 20:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and does suggest that last weeks price bottom will be challenged (which could had been today)
2008-11-18 20:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same situation with the OEX data
2008-11-18 20:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in all cases
2008-11-18 20:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a break of the divergent lows of October, along with a break of these same October lows in the MCSUM, wouldn't be a good thing as this would extend the decline
2008-11-18 20:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and may set off a snowball effect that I don't think anyone would want to talk about
2008-11-18 20:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: critical...critical..critical...that we hold the divergent lows on the MCO
2008-11-18 20:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we don't want to see another acceleration in the decline of money flow
2008-11-18 20:19:26 [Message] lew -> Main Room: the very recent ones?
2008-11-18 20:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the divergent lows of October
2008-11-18 20:20:12 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thx
2008-11-18 20:20:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking back to our casual discussion of what an Elliott 5th wave might look like
2008-11-18 20:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we talked about the idea of a bounce near the October lows, and then a rally to suck traders in that a bottom had been created
2008-11-18 20:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would be part of a second wave bounce
2008-11-18 20:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bounce that found its highs last Friday, and we've been under immense pressure to the downside since that time
2008-11-18 20:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the confirmation of this 5th wave
2008-11-18 20:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would finish out a still larger third wave
2008-11-18 20:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would have both the (divergent) lows in the MCO and the MCSUM taken out
2008-11-18 20:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so from this angle, it doesn't look very good right now
2008-11-18 20:23:13 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Internals first, price later?
2008-11-18 20:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and knowing what would happen for this event to happen, any move below these two points would confirm "the count"
2008-11-18 20:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ideally, yes
2008-11-18 20:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the internals haven't been looking very good since Thursday, have they?
2008-11-18 20:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like money is showing the way, but something is keeping prices from following too quickly
2008-11-18 20:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be intervention
2008-11-18 20:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still don't know what the Godfather did with 2 Trillion Dollars
2008-11-18 20:24:42 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Like a 400 pt up move today on not so good breadth
2008-11-18 20:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-18 20:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and all in the last hour or so
2008-11-18 20:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that smells of something fierce
2008-11-18 20:25:14 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: 15 - 20 minutes
2008-11-18 20:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like I said last Thursday, it was like trading foreign currencies in the 1980's
2008-11-18 20:25:45 [Message] leverage4 -> Main Room: How much would OPEX impact these one hour wonders?
2008-11-18 20:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and unless we saw follow through on Friday, it was probably doomed to fail
2008-11-18 20:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know...I don't have the books in front of me
2008-11-18 20:26:07 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: guru's talking and charting away to not remain short unless SPX 846 fails could be the self-fulfilling reason for short covering in last hour....just a thought
2008-11-18 20:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-11-18 20:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you don't really know who's looking at what
2008-11-18 20:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what kind of ammunition they have behind them
2008-11-18 20:26:46 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the early a.m. ES low was retested and it held
2008-11-18 20:26:54 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: overshoot of less than 2 pts
2008-11-18 20:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are they fundamentally, technically, or emotionally trading?
2008-11-18 20:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all I know is that the market remains very heavy here
2008-11-18 20:27:21 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: TA charts showing 846 SPX cash as support..pure TA stuff
2008-11-18 20:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what if this support is being played by someone not really caring about 846?
2008-11-18 20:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand your point
2008-11-18 20:28:06 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: based on price action since Oct 10..i came up with the monthly close cluster from early 2003 cause I look at monthly charts constantly
2008-11-18 20:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but something fishy is going on here in some respects
2008-11-18 20:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and thank you for sharing this
2008-11-18 20:28:32 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I felt the same thing all day..even before the rally
2008-11-18 20:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are so "oversold" here, it's really hard to fathom what it would take to keep "a good man down" under such conditions
2008-11-18 20:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one idea is that the market is sensing that what has been done already is either too late or won't matter anymore
2008-11-18 20:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and someone...either individually or collectively...is doing everything they can to hold things in here from falling apart completely
2008-11-18 20:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they (we) don't want to see lower lows
2008-11-18 20:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people will panic if this happens
2008-11-18 20:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmmm...panic
2008-11-18 20:31:15 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: It appears that money is not rotating into any asset class
2008-11-18 20:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is nothing to buy right now
2008-11-18 20:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing
2008-11-18 20:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money is just leaving the markets and going to cash (dollar strength)
2008-11-18 20:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until this changes
2008-11-18 20:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we won't see a bottom
2008-11-18 20:31:56 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: huge rally in treasury notes and bonds, some real fear there, I might be too early, but bought my initial position in TBT,
2008-11-18 20:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: defensive stocks are under pressure
2008-11-18 20:32:11 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: parked in dollars it seems
2008-11-18 20:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I heard this morning that the yield on the SPX is now higher than that of the 10 year note
2008-11-18 20:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...when money is hard to come by, it too will rise in value
2008-11-18 20:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the dollar is only going higher because of this
2008-11-18 20:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the higher it goes, the more of a frenzy that is created just to get "cash" which applies weakness in other areas of investment
2008-11-18 20:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is interesting in all of this is that the US Dollar that's the preferred currency of choice in spite of all of the fumbling and bumbling coming out of DC
2008-11-18 20:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also mean that the US economy is perceived stronger than anywhere else
2008-11-18 20:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: isn't that a frightening thought given current conditions
2008-11-18 20:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (shrug)
2008-11-18 20:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dow McClellan's are in the same situation as the SPX and OEX
2008-11-18 20:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not much more to add on the MID and SML that hasn't already been touched upon
2008-11-18 20:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2008-11-18 20:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...a big move is about to come about
2008-11-18 20:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the odds say up
2008-11-18 20:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the tone of the market says "be careful"
2008-11-18 20:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking a quick look at the volume McClellan's
2008-11-18 20:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NYSE common only MCO is supporting a bottoms above bottoms structure to go with the breadth side
2008-11-18 20:37:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a positive
2008-11-18 20:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE volume MCO is trying like mad to hold last weeks support level
2008-11-18 20:38:39 [Message] locus -> Main Room: ES bull flag (globex) breaking to the upside here
2008-11-18 20:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX, OEX, and DOW volume MCO's are also holding in a bottom above bottoms configuration...so there's a bit more ammunition for an upside resolution
2008-11-18 20:39:20 [Message] locus -> Main Room: if middle of move targets about 905
2008-11-18 20:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hope so
2008-11-18 20:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I really do
2008-11-18 20:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the runner really took it on the chin after trying to be a hero last week
2008-11-18 20:40:07 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: still 100pts below 'MaxPain'...(es, spx)
2008-11-18 20:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...maximum pain is needed for the November strikes
2008-11-18 20:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a rally into expiration will probably allow the market to then decline in earnest
2008-11-18 20:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a decline...equal and opposite
2008-11-18 20:41:11 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Why is it important, if you are expecting a 5th and another 5th of higher degree?
2008-11-18 20:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this could very well be the problem
2008-11-18 20:41:20 [Message] locus -> Main Room: Randy had interesting piece on options posted this w/e
2008-11-18 20:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, he did...we had several nice posts over the weekend at TW - thanks to all who contributed
2008-11-18 20:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: important?
2008-11-18 20:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: confused
2008-11-18 20:42:11 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: You said - hope so for the up move
2008-11-18 20:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I don't want the market to fall apart
2008-11-18 20:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I am an American
2008-11-18 20:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I do care
2008-11-18 20:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but as far as Elliott is concerned
2008-11-18 20:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have 5th waves of varying time degrees still in play here, no less, our measuring gap price objectives
2008-11-18 20:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just don't like to see the kind of pressure being exerted lately
2008-11-18 20:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not healthy
2008-11-18 20:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for the majority, what's being done now won't be felt until early next year
2008-11-18 20:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and many in today's world have no real idea what a true contraction is
2008-11-18 20:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe over 50% of the population
2008-11-18 20:44:06 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: May the upcoming 4th will give them a chance to regroup
2008-11-18 20:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if they do, our memories are short
2008-11-18 20:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each "wave" is accompanied by a mass psychology
2008-11-18 20:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 4th waves are not a time to regroup...they're a time of tension
2008-11-18 20:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they are times of high indecisiveness before the finishing touch
2008-11-18 20:45:18 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: I mean - raise cash
2008-11-18 20:45:30 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: what is left of it
2008-11-18 20:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the time to raise cash would had been as we moved from wave 2 to wave 3
2008-11-18 20:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or at least be defensive
2008-11-18 20:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as was the warning back in the beginning of October
2008-11-18 20:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides...we're always raising cash when we close out a trade
2008-11-18 20:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I know what you're talking about
2008-11-18 20:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sigh...
2008-11-18 20:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volume oscillators
2008-11-18 20:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CVI's were climactic yesterday suggesting a reversal today or tomorrow
2008-11-18 20:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like last week, it will be important how things look after we get the CVI's back to their zero lines where one side will again take control
2008-11-18 20:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are still "oversold" - another feather in the cap for a rally
2008-11-18 20:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...up until 15:00 today, it was sure looking grim...
2008-11-18 20:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was nice to see the market rally in the last hour
2008-11-18 20:49:31 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: usually liquidation time these days
2008-11-18 20:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's are pretty much "oversold" now as well
2008-11-18 20:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, in this area, the small point change could equate to a rally
2008-11-18 20:49:58 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: fight broke out in sp pits right around reversal time
2008-11-18 20:50:30 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: you mean- fist fight?
2008-11-18 20:50:45 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: yes, pushing shoving punches
2008-11-18 20:51:15 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: didn't hear cause, just the report
2008-11-18 20:51:31 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: geosing..what explained today's late rally in your chart work?
2008-11-18 20:52:36 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ES retest of of overnight low was my primary focus...when it held
2008-11-18 20:53:27 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: In my narrow view, YM reached profile support point and held. I did not expect the rally of this magnitude and did expect a close above open.
2008-11-18 20:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .69
2008-11-18 20:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .96
2008-11-18 20:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (sad)
2008-11-18 20:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .78
2008-11-18 20:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.11 - better
2008-11-18 20:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .71
2008-11-18 20:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.06
2008-11-18 20:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's try this (positive spin time)
2008-11-18 20:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: How about a rally attempt for tomorrow...a rest on Thursday...and then another attempt for higher highs
2008-11-18 20:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: blow out the November puts
2008-11-18 20:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then steadily decline into the 2nd week of December?
2008-11-18 20:57:06 [Message] lew -> Main Room: yep
2008-11-18 20:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's what the layman out there would want to see
2008-11-18 20:58:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: watch the major indices for higher price highs than the ones seen on any time period from daily on down
2008-11-18 20:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here...let me give you a recent example of what the bulls don't want to see
2008-11-18 20:59:00 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I am a skeptic..the Monday to Tuesday overnight ES session high is barely now holding in ES trading..I think bulls and bears are going to both be nervous about this ..esp with 841 area of ES so nearby....
2008-11-18 20:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad08/breadthdjia111408.gif
2008-11-18 20:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be sure Steve...it's a matter of confidence now
2008-11-18 20:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not that of the technical nature of the market
2008-11-18 20:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I'm seeing very little confidence here from many angles
2008-11-18 21:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the chart
2008-11-18 21:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the market shows a lot of internal energy, but doesn't show price results, like the common only A/D line in the beginning of October, this is a dangerous development
2008-11-18 21:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so far, this is what's been happening since the first reflex rally
2008-11-18 21:01:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What you mean by higher price highs? that is a long long way from here?
2008-11-18 21:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there must be attempt to build
2008-11-18 21:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you only have solid rocket boosters to lift you off the grown, and they fall away leaving you with only your external tank, and THAT fails, you fall to Earth
2008-11-18 21:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or in the case of the A/D line, crash
2008-11-18 21:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's like huffing and puffing at a brick house
2008-11-18 21:02:52 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: Chip's idea (Chip from StockCharts.com) about the direction is simply stated here, fwiw http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/20081116/index.html
2008-11-18 21:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you just run out of "breadth" to do so
2008-11-18 21:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to provide some longer term perspective to Chip - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYHL&p=D&st=1991-03-01&i=p17579143704&a=42461697&r=510
2008-11-18 21:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always a context situation
2008-11-18 21:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but, yes, the NYHL has been in a bearish configuration for quite a while now
2008-11-18 21:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's always the last one to turn
2008-11-18 21:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-11-18 21:06:16 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thx much, great takes on your part, adds clarity
2008-11-18 21:06:18 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: I track 20day NH-NL - seems to be showing some improvement
2008-11-18 21:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the AMEX - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$AMHL&p=D&st=1991-03-01&i=p73378215536&a=42461290&r=816
2008-11-18 21:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the NASDAQ - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAHL&p=D&st=1991-03-01&i=p71796040153&a=42461479&r=140
2008-11-18 21:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but remember, we also have more stocks trading than before that will tend to skew things in a historic sense
2008-11-18 21:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in all cases, the direction is quite known
2008-11-18 21:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...well...I hope to have a clearer head when next we meet
2008-11-18 21:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and hope I shared something useful
2008-11-18 21:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-11-18 21:08:41 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: very good and helpful..TY
2008-11-18 21:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2008-11-18 21:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



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