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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-11-17 16:00:13 fib1618: good day
2015-11-17 16:00:16 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-11-17 16:00:28 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-11-17 16:03:20 fib1618: I'm fine and dandy
2015-11-17 16:03:54 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-11-17 16:06:23 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-11-17 16:07:22 fib1618: let me check the BETS first...one sec
2015-11-17 16:08:18 fib1618: -65 no change from the weekend
2015-11-17 16:09:07 fib1618: after moving to "oversold" reading of -71 on Friday
2015-11-17 16:09:16 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved higher on Monday
2015-11-17 16:09:26 fib1618: only to pull back slightly today
2015-11-17 16:09:45 fib1618: our near term focus is with the blip resistance area of last week
2015-11-17 16:09:50 fib1618: for until this level is taken out
2015-11-17 16:10:01 fib1618: the sellers are in control of the price action
2015-11-17 16:10:24 fib1618: looking at today's price bar
2015-11-17 16:10:29 fib1618: and we filled the gap early only
2015-11-17 16:10:40 fib1618: and finished up lower than Monday's close
2015-11-17 16:10:47 fib1618: this is a hard reversal bar
2015-11-17 16:11:01 fib1618: and one suggesting of extreme weakness still yet to come in the price sequence
2015-11-17 16:11:17 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-11-17 16:11:28 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is about to challenge its zero line
2015-11-17 16:11:37 fib1618: and with the negative action today
2015-11-17 16:11:59 fib1618: the odds are pretty high that we're going to move down and through this same zero line as soon as tomorrow
2015-11-17 16:12:54 fib1618: so we might see a lower low in the current CO MCO sequence in co-ordination with this same zero line break
2015-11-17 16:13:08 fib1618: and hopefully that will be the end of it
2015-11-17 16:13:10 fib1618: although
2015-11-17 16:13:23 fib1618: with Europe on high alert since Friday
2015-11-17 16:13:32 fib1618: and the scare in Germany tonight
2015-11-17 16:14:09 fib1618: it wouldn't take much to spook traders into something that may have "unintended consequences"
2015-11-17 16:14:23 fib1618: let's see how the rest of the charts look
2015-11-17 16:14:53 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCO also failed to take out last week's high point
2015-11-17 16:15:05 fib1618: and moved slightly lower today
2015-11-17 16:15:20 fib1618: with a current reading of -28
2015-11-17 16:15:37 fib1618: which is far stronger than the CO MCO
2015-11-17 16:16:04 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite MCO components
2015-11-17 16:16:25 fib1618: and we see that yesterday's reflex rally allowed the 5% Trend to snapback to its zero line
2015-11-17 16:16:31 fib1618: after moving down and through it on Friday
2015-11-17 16:17:15 fib1618: given that the 5% Trend component was repelled from the zero line today
2015-11-17 16:17:49 fib1618: the odds are fairly high that we'll need to move a bit deeper into negative territory before we'll see a washout develop
2015-11-17 16:17:58 fib1618: so far then
2015-11-17 16:18:21 fib1618: looks like Monday's reflex is about all the current sequence is going to give us
2015-11-17 16:18:33 fib1618: let's see what the NASDAQ says
2015-11-17 16:19:03 fib1618: and Friday we did fill the measuring gap on the daily chart as the NDX suggesting we would on Thursday
2015-11-17 16:19:23 fib1618: saw a reversal on Monday (in spite of the drama in Paris)
2015-11-17 16:19:39 fib1618: but it wasn't enough to hold on to the follow through after we filled Friday's pattern gap
2015-11-17 16:19:54 fib1618: this would indicate that we have some unfinished business still below us
2015-11-17 16:20:05 fib1618: which echos what we just talked about in the NYSE
2015-11-17 16:20:50 fib1618: also of note is that we had a small point change in the NASDAQ breadth MCO today
2015-11-17 16:21:03 fib1618: so we're currently compressed again on a near term basis
2015-11-17 16:21:33 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-11-17 16:21:43 fib1618: and here we had somewhat better news today
2015-11-17 16:21:49 fib1618: with this MCO finishing slightly higher
2015-11-17 16:22:25 fib1618: but as long as it remains below last week's highs
2015-11-17 16:22:39 fib1618: the sellers will have the path of least resistance going with them
2015-11-17 16:23:23 fib1618: note here that we have the NDX 5% component having a hard time moving back above its zero line over the last two days
2015-11-17 16:23:44 fib1618: adding extra downside pressure to the current sequence
2015-11-17 16:24:29 fib1618: we also have this annoying divergence between the NDX and NASDAQ breadth MCO's still yet to be remedied
2015-11-17 16:24:38 fib1618: as the NDX moved below the late September lows last week
2015-11-17 16:24:52 fib1618: but the broader NASDAQ has not
2015-11-17 16:25:21 fib1618: so this is something that will need to be sorted before the buyers will be able to have the opportunity to make something happen
2015-11-17 16:26:05 fib1618: after moving to a deeply "oversold" reading on Friday of -95
2015-11-17 16:26:14 fib1618: we see that the SPX breadth MCO also bounced higher on Monday
2015-11-17 16:26:35 fib1618: but, here again, remains below the highs of last Tuesday
2015-11-17 16:27:01 fib1618: notice also how the SPX 5% Trend was also turned away at its zero line as well
2015-11-17 16:27:31 fib1618: so..your standard reflex followed by a "failure to achieve" a higher high
2015-11-17 16:27:54 fib1618: and this has made the market vulnerable to attack
2015-11-17 16:28:27 fib1618: same situation with the OEX breadth MCO and its 5% Component
2015-11-17 16:28:41 fib1618: with the good news being we're currently in sync
2015-11-17 16:29:15 fib1618: but with the bad news that this sync's bias is with the sellers
2015-11-17 16:30:04 fib1618: the position of the 5% Trend on the Dow breadth MCO is a bit stronger
2015-11-17 16:30:15 fib1618: with a positive reading still above its zero line
2015-11-17 16:30:37 fib1618: but a lot of this has to do with the distance between the 19 and 39 day EMA's of the Dow A/D line
2015-11-17 16:31:36 fib1618: and as shown visually by the current reading of +686 in the Dow breadth MCSUM
2015-11-17 16:34:23 fib1618: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2015-11-17 16:34:58 fib1618: and we have the same pattern already reviewed
2015-11-17 16:35:12 fib1618: with a pop from "oversold" levels on Monday
2015-11-17 16:35:19 fib1618: a failure to move above last week's highs
2015-11-17 16:35:25 fib1618: and a pullback today
2015-11-17 16:35:28 fib1618: all the while
2015-11-17 16:35:50 fib1618: the 5% component has snapped back to its zero line
2015-11-17 16:36:45 fib1618: and the MID breadth MCSUM is now at its forecasted natural support area (+250) with a +258 reading
2015-11-17 16:37:15 fib1618: small point change in the SML breadth MCO
2015-11-17 16:37:37 fib1618: as the 5% Component here also snapping back to its zero line
2015-11-17 16:38:05 fib1618: on the bearish side
2015-11-17 16:38:13 fib1618: (as if we need anything else)
2015-11-17 16:38:41 fib1618: today's price bars in both the MID and SML were not able to close Friday's downside gap
2015-11-17 16:39:01 fib1618: and this makes these patterns highly vulnerable to extended price moves to the downside
2015-11-17 16:39:49 fib1618: looks like by Friday given the current vicinity of both the MID and SML breadth MCSUM's in relation to their zero lines
2015-11-17 16:40:13 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2015-11-17 16:41:17 fib1618: so since we were so successful that last time this happened a week ago with the NASDAQ
2015-11-17 16:41:37 fib1618: let's go ahead and expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next 2 trading sessions
2015-11-17 16:42:01 fib1618: last week we had figured on an up move...which was fine until the end of the day on Wednesday
2015-11-17 16:42:23 fib1618: this time though..it looks like the odds are better than average of this moving being lower from here
2015-11-17 16:42:33 fib1618: also of note
2015-11-17 16:42:44 fib1618: the TM breadth MCSUM is right at its zero line
2015-11-17 16:43:38 fib1618: and we know the kind of volatility we cab get when the market moves on either side of zero
2015-11-17 16:43:45 fib1618: so....
2015-11-17 16:43:52 fib1618: looks like we're about to heave again
2015-11-17 16:44:13 fib1618: don't know if it will be news related
2015-11-17 16:44:25 fib1618: or just how sloppy the technical action is at this time
2015-11-17 16:44:45 fib1618: as it searches for some sort of across the board capitulation
2015-11-17 16:44:56 fib1618: let's see how volume side of the equation looks
2015-11-17 16:45:51 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's are right in sync with each other right now
2015-11-17 16:46:39 fib1618: with the bad news, short term, that both volume MCSUM's are already below their zero lines
2015-11-17 16:46:48 fib1618: and thereby leading breadth to the downside
2015-11-17 16:47:16 fib1618: and since the amplitude of price moves are more closely related to volume than it is to breadth
2015-11-17 16:47:31 fib1618: this is not one of those warm, fuzzy situations for the bulls
2015-11-17 16:47:52 fib1618: playing devil's advocate
2015-11-17 16:48:06 fib1618: maybe we might see a pop on Wednesday so that both of these MCSUM's can snapback to their zero lines
2015-11-17 16:48:21 fib1618: but this doesn't seem likely given the hard reversal price bars today
2015-11-17 16:49:05 fib1618: my first thought that came to mind when I saw the NASDAQ volume MCO just now was that it was "drowning"
2015-11-17 16:49:18 fib1618: and looking to find a way to rush back to the surface (the zero line)
2015-11-17 16:49:38 fib1618: but a small point change here isn't what was needed for a good follow through after Monday's bounce
2015-11-17 16:49:47 fib1618: so that's concerning
2015-11-17 16:50:17 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO tapped out with a -125 reading on Friday
2015-11-17 16:51:06 fib1618: that's quite "oversold" to a point from where some sort of texture in the pattern is now needed for the buyers to have a foot hold moving forward
2015-11-17 16:51:35 fib1618: snapback to the zero line now complete in the NDX volume 5% component as well
2015-11-17 16:52:21 fib1618: so we have a good rhythm throughout the charts tonight
2015-11-17 16:52:44 fib1618: it's just that we have these little annoyances that can turn into bigger problems if traders aren't careful
2015-11-17 16:52:49 fib1618: for example
2015-11-17 16:53:17 fib1618: another Paris event now wouldn't have the same "brush off" as we saw yesterday
2015-11-17 16:53:35 fib1618: as we are now closer to the MCSUM zero lines on several indices
2015-11-17 16:53:42 fib1618: and continue to weaken overall
2015-11-17 16:54:23 fib1618: like its breadth cousin, a nice bounce so far in the SPX volume MCO
2015-11-17 16:54:35 fib1618: but still not enough to challenge last Tuesday's high point
2015-11-17 16:55:16 fib1618: we see that volume is supporting the top 100 stocks that trade on the SPX as the OEX volume MCO almost made it to last week's high point
2015-11-17 16:55:50 fib1618: as well as seeing the 5% Trend moving back above its zero line on Monday
2015-11-17 16:56:02 fib1618: and now back below it today
2015-11-17 16:56:31 fib1618: this would suggest that most of the work in Monday's reflex was geared toward the cream stocks
2015-11-17 16:57:16 fib1618: and a nasty looking failure seen in the Dow volume MCO today doesn't say "buy me" at all
2015-11-17 16:57:52 fib1618: as the individual postings on the Dow volume MCSUM begin to pick up speed to the downside
2015-11-17 16:58:36 fib1618: you can really see the velocity of how fast money is moving out of stocks right now on the 21 day close up charts of the MCSUM's
2015-11-17 16:59:00 fib1618: with both the MID and SML volume MCSUM's also below their zero lines now
2015-11-17 16:59:16 fib1618: making the market very heavy
2015-11-17 16:59:42 fib1618: and a small point change in the TM volume MCO
2015-11-17 16:59:52 fib1618: so something is about to give
2015-11-17 17:00:17 fib1618: and with our being above the MCO zero line for our customary 4-6 week period behind us
2015-11-17 17:00:58 fib1618: the odds are very good that we'll be below the MCO zero line right through Thanksgiving which is a week from this coming Thursday
2015-11-17 17:01:10 fib1618: so...
2015-11-17 17:01:31 fib1618: unless there is some sort of magical surprise announcement to stimulate the buyers
2015-11-17 17:01:49 fib1618: it looks as though we're going to see prices continue to be under pressure for the rest of the week
2015-11-17 17:02:08 fib1618: would had been nice if we held the late September MCO lows last week
2015-11-17 17:02:29 fib1618: as this would had fit nicely into our previous blueprint of a important low this week
2015-11-17 17:02:41 fib1618: but last Wednesday's rally failure changed all that
2015-11-17 17:03:06 fib1618: and now we'll have to wait and see when the next window of a possible tradable low is likely to take place
2015-11-17 17:03:19 fib1618: moving to the OBV data
2015-11-17 17:04:03 fib1618: we got our price bounce on Monday as suggested by Thursday's high CVI readings
2015-11-17 17:04:16 fib1618: and this indicator is now neutral
2015-11-17 17:04:26 fib1618: STVO's are "oversold"
2015-11-17 17:04:39 fib1618: VTO's are neutral...and looking for one side to take control
2015-11-17 17:04:57 fib1618: the STVO's giving an opening for the buyers to fill on Wednesday
2015-11-17 17:05:11 fib1618: but today's price bar is a real problem child in this scenario
2015-11-17 17:05:31 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.24
2015-11-17 17:05:42 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.15
2015-11-17 17:05:47 fib1618: highly "oversold"
2015-11-17 17:06:01 fib1618: so a glimmer of hope for the buyers here as well
2015-11-17 17:06:19 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .93
2015-11-17 17:06:29 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.13
2015-11-17 17:06:38 fib1618: highly "oversold" here too
2015-11-17 17:06:53 fib1618: TM TRIN at .97
2015-11-17 17:07:05 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.11
2015-11-17 17:07:13 fib1618: so....
2015-11-17 17:07:17 fib1618: let's see what we got here
2015-11-17 17:07:45 fib1618: got our standard fare of a technical reflex rally off the lows of Friday out of the way
2015-11-17 17:08:08 fib1618: a nasty reversal price bar today after closing Friday's downside gaps...except for the MID and SML
2015-11-17 17:08:24 fib1618: but "oversold" Open 10 TRIN's
2015-11-17 17:08:46 fib1618: which would tend to keep any near term decline in check
2015-11-17 17:09:01 fib1618: unless something puts its "thumb on the scale"
2015-11-17 17:09:09 fib1618: yep...the market has an illness
2015-11-17 17:09:18 fib1618: doesn't know if it's feeling better or not
2015-11-17 17:09:33 fib1618: so let's go back to a "hit and run" format for now
2015-11-17 17:10:03 fib1618: but with the intermediate term trend suggesting that a challenge of the August lows is likely before we'll see a tradable low to work from
2015-11-17 17:10:11 fib1618: for those who came in late
2015-11-17 17:10:21 fib1618: today's BETS was a -65 - Sell
2015-11-17 17:10:27 fib1618: let me look around a bit
2015-11-17 17:11:51 fib1618: OEX P/C ratio on the 10 DMA up to 3.25
2015-11-17 17:12:01 fib1618: which is usually close to a top
2015-11-17 17:13:05 fib1618: sentiment indicators are bearish across the board on a contrarian basis
2015-11-17 17:13:53 fib1618: Mark's poll, for example, was 53% bulls and 37% bears on Saturday
2015-11-17 17:14:22 fib1618: NAAIM is at 70% bulls
2015-11-17 17:15:23 fib1618: not a lot here suggesting a bottom
2015-11-17 17:15:44 fib1618: anything else you folks seeing right now?
2015-11-17 17:15:57 thespookyone: same as you
2015-11-17 17:16:30 fib1618: today's reversal bar is not healthy
2015-11-17 17:16:39 thespookyone: not at all
2015-11-17 17:17:02 fib1618: futures are flat
2015-11-17 17:17:20 thespookyone: bounce was fairly muted, and don't like where indicators topped
2015-11-17 17:17:27 fib1618: anyway..you've all seen the cumulative charts
2015-11-17 17:17:38 fib1618: yea...
2015-11-17 17:17:44 fib1618: at this point
2015-11-17 17:18:08 fib1618: it would seem that there's very little to fight the bear market default
2015-11-17 17:18:46 fib1618: just remember to watch the August MCO lows from this point forward
2015-11-17 17:18:59 fib1618: it doesn't seem possible that we'll break them in one day
2015-11-17 17:19:22 fib1618: as it would take back to back high negative plurality readings to do so
2015-11-17 17:19:51 fib1618: but there's a definite uneasiness right now
2015-11-17 17:20:05 fib1618: and we started feeling it last Wednesday
2015-11-17 17:20:14 fib1618: so I don't think its Paris
2015-11-17 17:20:15 fib1618: although
2015-11-17 17:20:26 fib1618: what happened on Friday sure doesn't help the situation
2015-11-17 17:20:45 fib1618: anything else?
2015-11-17 17:22:06 fib1618: OK...then we'll call it a night
2015-11-17 17:22:13 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-11-17 17:22:20 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2015-11-17 17:22:21 fib1618: good night


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