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Posts: 4,899
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-17 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...good day
2011-11-17 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-17 16:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: glad to have a fairly full room today
2011-11-17 16:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: question for you all
2011-11-17 16:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Thursday of next being Thanksgiving
2011-11-17 16:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you want to have next Thursday's session moved to that we have Monday and Tuesday??
2011-11-17 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: show of hands please
2011-11-17 16:02:58 [Message] EricD -> Chat: fine with me
2011-11-17 16:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1
2011-11-17 16:03:06 [Message] tracca -> Chat: ok
2011-11-17 16:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need 3
2011-11-17 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2
2011-11-17 16:03:21 [Message] slatedrake -> Chat: Great idea!  Count me as 3
2011-11-17 16:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2011-11-17 16:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're going to have Monday and Tuesday next week
2011-11-17 16:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way you can be with your families for the rest of the week
2011-11-17 16:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-11-17 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then let me get DP up and we'll sort through the mess
2011-11-17 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tsk tsk...looks like we have some problems now
2011-11-17 16:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-11-17 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after playing tag with the zero line earlier in the week
2011-11-17 16:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now moved sharply lower
2011-11-17 16:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now challenging the divergent bottom carved out with the October 4th lows
2011-11-17 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is now imperative that the bulls find support at these levels
2011-11-17 16:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're going to have to call a "full stop" to any calls of further upside in the current pattern structure
2011-11-17 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components that make up this MCO
2011-11-17 16:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend is now below its zero line while the 5% Trend resides just above it
2011-11-17 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is usual and customary after having the MCO on either side of its zero line for a period equal to about 4-6 weeks
2011-11-17 16:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we see the 10% break below its zero line first and the 5% find near term support at the zero line
2011-11-17 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a technical reflex occurs allowing the 10% to snapback to its zero line, while the 5% recoils off this same line of neutrality
2011-11-17 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that will be our focus for the near term...a technical bounce
2011-11-17 16:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most likely time for this to happen would be as soon as Friday
2011-11-17 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have OPEX in play here this time around
2011-11-17 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to work with by Monday at the latest this time around
2011-11-17 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-11-17 16:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we have now broken technical support on this MCO
2011-11-17 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was the simple double bottom structure that we see on the chart
2011-11-17 16:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as mentioned in previous chats that it would be an important area for the bulls to hold otherwise we would then see a change of direction in the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-17 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so looking at the MCSUM
2011-11-17 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that with today's MCO reading that we have now expanded the directional flow of money now to the downside...or moving out of the market
2011-11-17 16:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this move
2011-11-17 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also broke to the downside of our symmetric triangle that we discussed on Tuesday
2011-11-17 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-11-17 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be surprising to see this happen as symmetrical triangles are the only geometric pattern where they can either be a continuation pattern or a reversal pattern
2011-11-17 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also had the indication that with bottom above bottoms controlling the MCO pattern on Tuesday
2011-11-17 16:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that our odds of an upside breakout were a better bet than a downside break
2011-11-17 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to have this happen in the face these same kind of odds should indeed be respected for what it may imply
2011-11-17 16:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-11-17 16:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no new buying should be made at this time
2011-11-17 16:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and solid sell stops should now be applied at this time
2011-11-17 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for evidently there is something making the market upset to throw this same balance (or imbalance as the case might be) in the other direction
2011-11-17 16:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and basically the reason why I thought it appropriate to discuss the "other side of the coin" as we did on Tuesday
2011-11-17 16:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wasn't getting a good feel here of late
2011-11-17 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the rhythm of the market was losing its cadence
2011-11-17 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this, and that we were as "overbought" as we were on the MCSUM's
2011-11-17 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without having too much to show for it
2011-11-17 16:18:50 [Message] tracca -> Chat: what is the difference with this move and a bear trap?
2011-11-17 16:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was all the warning that was necessary to at least be cognizant of the fact that breaking out to the upside wasn't as sure of a bet as it was as late as last week
2011-11-17 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2011-11-17 16:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bear trap you would be able to find momentum support internally with each successive move to the downside
2011-11-17 16:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was fine as late as Tuesday
2011-11-17 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but things started to crack yesterday
2011-11-17 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there was little doubt that something was not quite right anymore in today's afternoon session
2011-11-17 16:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO now testing its divergent lows of October
2011-11-17 16:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was NOT a reasonable expectation at this juncture only because prices were having a terrible time of breaking out the upside
2011-11-17 16:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our first real shot off the bow came on Tuesday's close
2011-11-17 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you remember that it looked like we found a bottom to our minimal expectation of a completed triangle
2011-11-17 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the last 5-10 minutes of the close the market sold off very hard
2011-11-17 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is not indicative of a market that was ready to break out to the upside
2011-11-17 16:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the bottoms situation with the various MCO's
2011-11-17 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our thinking was we may have had a false start and needed to regroup
2011-11-17 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then came Wednesday
2011-11-17 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market continued hard down at the open
2011-11-17 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then tried its best to find some traction in the afternoon
2011-11-17 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but instead on building on this construction
2011-11-17 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downgrade of the German banks by Fitch hit the tape
2011-11-17 16:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down the Dow went another 125 points in less than 20 minutes
2011-11-17 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our discussions during this last 3-4 weeks
2011-11-17 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that money was betting that an ongoing resolution was going to be in place sooner than later
2011-11-17 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first with Greece
2011-11-17 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then the Italian situation grew darker
2011-11-17 16:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got that out the way
2011-11-17 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get rumors that other EU countries may now be in more trouble than "first realized"
2011-11-17 16:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get yesterday's downgrades with the banks who are in the thick of it with any or all bailouts being discussed right now
2011-11-17 16:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market was taking the body blows all right
2011-11-17 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but yesterday's decision, without any real warning, was more like a hit to the jaw
2011-11-17 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and market now is pretty woozy with everything it has taken to this time
2011-11-17 16:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Oh...yea...
2011-11-17 16:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's not forget
2011-11-17 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a couple of news reports then crossed the wire earlier today about the American banking industry and how they may not have support enough in case of something akin to a domino effect hitting the EU
2011-11-17 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we already knew that
2011-11-17 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was why we sold off in August anyway
2011-11-17 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-17 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2011-11-17 16:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what we did know
2011-11-17 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew, and acknowledged several times in the last 2-3 chats
2011-11-17 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the MCSUM's were starting to show fatigue because of our closer daily postings
2011-11-17 16:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also knew that we were approaching some significant overhead resistance levels that needed to be penetrated to be called in the clear on a longer term basis
2011-11-17 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up until the last week or two
2011-11-17 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we knew was that the odds were very high that not only were we in a position to move to new yearly price highs
2011-11-17 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the likelihood of this current advancing price structure was probably going to extend into February of next year
2011-11-17 16:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now
2011-11-17 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO now challenging the divergent lows of this same advancing price structure as quickly as we have
2011-11-17 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same time and price objectives are in jeopardy of now being cancelled
2011-11-17 16:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that happens
2011-11-17 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't apply hard stops to our long positions
2011-11-17 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just say thank you...and stand aside
2011-11-17 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for evidently there is too much indigestion here for the market to work with and would therefore be open to additional sideways choppy behavior
2011-11-17 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have an elevated situation in the Middle East and in Russia right now
2011-11-17 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it just could be that although money believed that the worst may had been behind us
2011-11-17 16:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there might be too many extraordinary circumstances to give us what is usual and customary given a set of technical guidelines
2011-11-17 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we said on Tuesday
2011-11-17 16:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so be it
2011-11-17 16:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market doesn't have enough conviction to move higher here
2011-11-17 16:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then no one here should try to fight this
2011-11-17 16:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a new blueprint is then provided as a guide
2011-11-17 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as always
2011-11-17 16:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flexibility in this business is paramount
2011-11-17 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one should never be married to any position
2011-11-17 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe
2011-11-17 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side
2011-11-17 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that our expectation of a fake move to the downside before regaining the upside might be what were in for near term
2011-11-17 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2011-11-17 16:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is OPEX tomorrow
2011-11-17 16:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can all think of different excuses here
2011-11-17 16:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we MUST respect what our indicators are showing
2011-11-17 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it's with those odds where we're likely to see profitability with our positions
2011-11-17 16:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-11-17 16:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2011-11-17 16:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard stops are indicated
2011-11-17 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind a couple of other things
2011-11-17 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first of all
2011-11-17 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's quite likely that, even if we have topped out in the MCSUM's, that we're going to see at least one more rally attempt before we'll actually see a change in trend
2011-11-17 16:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that might not be until we challenge the October 4th lows now
2011-11-17 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically because
2011-11-17 16:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we ARE challenging these same divergent lows now on the MCO
2011-11-17 16:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do break them
2011-11-17 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then open the door to this objective
2011-11-17 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing, of course
2011-11-17 16:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the possibility
2011-11-17 16:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not the probability
2011-11-17 16:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we may have
2011-11-17 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we went over on Tuesday
2011-11-17 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had a bull market completion without higher price highs to help finish off the pattern
2011-11-17 16:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-11-17 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess this is a possibility given the fundamental news of the day
2011-11-17 16:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still not in a position to really roll with this kind of idea at this juncture either
2011-11-17 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do continue to move lower in the MCSUM
2011-11-17 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and don't see any support until around the zero line
2011-11-17 16:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then rally off the zero line as we usually see once there is, once again, parity between buyers and sellers
2011-11-17 16:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then that fails to re-establish the trend
2011-11-17 16:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be in for a whole lot of hurt
2011-11-17 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the challenge of the 2009 price lows would be the likely target
2011-11-17 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-11-17 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we're discussing such dire consequences
2011-11-17 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're probably near some sort of a bottom
2011-11-17 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE was at 67
2011-11-17 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the put buyers were out in force again
2011-11-17 16:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this time we're talking the most active front month of the year...December
2011-11-17 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our other possible outline here
2011-11-17 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the most likely to occur
2011-11-17 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that since the MCO maybe staying below its zero line for a period of about 3-4 weeks now to find parity with our staying above the zero line for the last 6 weeks
2011-11-17 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the MCSUM will remain in positive territory during this time
2011-11-17 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is the more likely outcome to today's test of the October 4th lows in the MCO is....
2011-11-17 16:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone want to chime in here?
2011-11-17 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, a trading range
2011-11-17 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the October lows as a base
2011-11-17 16:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also near the tsunami crash lows of last March
2011-11-17 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a slightly expanded topside of the 1275 level on the SPX
2011-11-17 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make no mistake here
2011-11-17 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break of both the 1225 cash level
2011-11-17 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the move taking out of rising pattern structure on the MCO
2011-11-17 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a significant bearish event and needs our respect for what it may imply
2011-11-17 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market can get back on its feet rather quickly here
2011-11-17 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we will have to see how much of the damage created in the last two days can be mended
2011-11-17 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or not
2011-11-17 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know...from my contacts in the business
2011-11-17 16:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is an absolute TON of cash that wants to be invested in stocks right now
2011-11-17 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there is just too many negative variables here that is keeping some very large players from committing
2011-11-17 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you don't get this kind of commitment
2011-11-17 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't really matter what the trend of money flow is indicating
2011-11-17 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when we refer to the A/D line as an indicator of how much money there is to be invested in the stock market IF it wishes to be put to work
2011-11-17 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and right now
2011-11-17 16:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I mean...really
2011-11-17 16:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overnight gyrations going on in the last 2 weeks are just not comparable to any time in history that I can remember
2011-11-17 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is absolutely no consistency right now from hour to hour
2011-11-17 16:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Europe opens hard down
2011-11-17 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: recovers in 2 hours
2011-11-17 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trips again
2011-11-17 16:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moves up
2011-11-17 16:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down..
2011-11-17 16:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this kind of erratic behavior
2011-11-17 16:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for ANYONE to really "trade" this kind of environment
2011-11-17 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you either have to have a bias
2011-11-17 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up or down
2011-11-17 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even then
2011-11-17 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the last two weeks
2011-11-17 16:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough market to trade...that's for darn sure
2011-11-17 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-17 16:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get off my soap box now and lets see how the rest the charts look
2011-11-17 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth data
2011-11-17 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again this has been our problem child now since the early October period
2011-11-17 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is the last of the breadth MCSUM's we review to approach the +250 level
2011-11-17 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2011-11-17 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +250 level acts as the last line of defense for any bear market trend that may have been created in the prior structural sequence
2011-11-17 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as the -250 level acts as support for a bull market sequence
2011-11-17 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-11-17 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has always been important for the bulls to get the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM back above this same level
2011-11-17 16:56:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the quicker it does so, the better
2011-11-17 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now
2011-11-17 16:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are definitely curling over to the downside having only been able to make it to the +200 level on Tuesday
2011-11-17 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a good thing for the bulls
2011-11-17 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for without the secondaries showing good expansion in money flow
2011-11-17 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that the rest of the market will be able to "broaden out" its advance
2011-11-17 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of how the NDX has been struggling of late as well
2011-11-17 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we were talking about the fact that although we were moving higher
2011-11-17 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the daily posts on the MCSUM were very congested showing a large amount of "nose holding"
2011-11-17 17:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as doesn't look all that good, but we'll hold our nose so that we don't have to smell the stench
2011-11-17 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the divergent lows of October on the NYSE data
2011-11-17 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the spike low we see on the NDX breadth MCO must also hold as well
2011-11-17 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise this will allow the price pattern to once again challenge 2050 level
2011-11-17 17:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has turned out to be the lower end of the range we see on the chart
2011-11-17 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2011-11-17 17:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the early October lows on the SPX breadth MCO have been broken
2011-11-17 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us a couple of things that we can actually use in our trading
2011-11-17 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first of all
2011-11-17 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is now going to stay pretty much below its zero line now for at least 2 weeks
2011-11-17 17:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-11-17 17:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't be too surprised at this at all given that we're not only highly "overbought"
2011-11-17 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also found resistance at our natural resistance point of the +1000 level
2011-11-17 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also happened to be the same area in which the bulls needed to pierce through in order to actually make an upside run at it
2011-11-17 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-11-17 17:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those positions in which you have profits should now be closed
2011-11-17 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no new buying should be indicated at this time unless a sharp reversal takes place by Monday
2011-11-17 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2011-11-17 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that we see them at least show some support on the SPX breadth MCSUM on this retracement at the +750 level
2011-11-17 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we move decisively below it without any hesitation
2011-11-17 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one may want to consider to go to cash until more clarity is known, or at least, hard stops would be indicated on these same open positions
2011-11-17 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-11-17 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of another rally here is pretty high given historic standards before we're likely to see a structural price trend to the downside
2011-11-17 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bothersome thing here is the way in which prices were not able to move higher out of its triangle patterns
2011-11-17 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least a final thrust higher would had been a compliment to this same robust nature that was being shown by the breadth MCSUM's
2011-11-17 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't get that
2011-11-17 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this business
2011-11-17 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we DON'T get on our expectations is actually more important than what we do get
2011-11-17 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2011-11-17 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a reset on the SPX breadth MCO
2011-11-17 17:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was NOT expected
2011-11-17 17:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something else is going on
2011-11-17 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and better to err on the side of caution than to think that somehow the market is wrong in what its doing
2011-11-17 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO also moved sharply to lower lows here
2011-11-17 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2011-11-17 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe I should look at the SPX first
2011-11-17 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the SPX components are pretty much in the same position as the NYSE
2011-11-17 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we should see a technical bounce near term before there would be any further weakness
2011-11-17 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO components still remain in a good position here
2011-11-17 17:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and might be, all depending on the TRIN numbers, at a point from where a technical reflex rally might be seen here
2011-11-17 17:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a snapback to the 1225 SPX level, for example
2011-11-17 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after that
2011-11-17 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the main question tonight
2011-11-17 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seasonality wise
2011-11-17 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're moving into a fairly strong period from Wednesday of next week though Friday
2011-11-17 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, again, it's really a bother that prices were not able to work with the tremendous amount of energy it was given over the last 2 weeks
2011-11-17 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bulls
2011-11-17 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: critical near term support is at the 1200 for the SPX cash
2011-11-17 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 540 for the OEX
2011-11-17 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say...11,350 for the Dow
2011-11-17 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all three of these support levels are the low point of the short consolidation patterns we see on the charts from mid October
2011-11-17 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unfortunately
2011-11-17 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we have broken below the divergent lows on the SPX, OEX, and Dow
2011-11-17 17:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the upside price targets are now off the table for the time being
2011-11-17 17:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2011-11-17 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a nice rounding top in place now
2011-11-17 17:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...for the Elliottician's out there
2011-11-17 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, this could be a "C" wave to finish off the correction
2011-11-17 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least pattern wise
2011-11-17 17:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the big problem though with this idea is that C waves diverge with A waves
2011-11-17 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we broke support today on the MCO's
2011-11-17 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't be a C wave
2011-11-17 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it can be a 3rd wave
2011-11-17 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is the biggest flashing yellow one can give here
2011-11-17 17:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, the complexities of Elliott do allow this to be wave 3 of C at this point
2011-11-17 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-11-17 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't really use Elliott here as a preemptive use to determine what may happen
2011-11-17 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I bring it up because I know many of you like to apply a label on where we might be in the pattern
2011-11-17 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we've been saying here for a couple of weeks now
2011-11-17 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not prices that we should be watching here
2011-11-17 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but breadth plurality as it will lead the way
2011-11-17 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today it was 5:1 negative
2011-11-17 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too bad a ratio considering what we've seen over the last couple of months
2011-11-17 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but enough now to at least compliment the downside break
2011-11-17 17:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this ratio increases
2011-11-17 17:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the bulls will be getting into a bigger hole
2011-11-17 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have to wait before we can make that determination
2011-11-17 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the divergent lows were broken today on the MID breadth MCO
2011-11-17 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the mid caps are out of the running for now
2011-11-17 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: joining the large caps
2011-11-17 17:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but surprisingly enough, the small caps are showing slightly better strength here
2011-11-17 17:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which helps compliment the idea that this is not only a correction, but this also increases the idea of a continued trading range here as well
2011-11-17 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...that 7 TRIN last week
2011-11-17 17:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it destabilized things too much?
2011-11-17 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-11-17 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCSUM wasn't able to move above its +500 level
2011-11-17 17:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was important for the broad market to be able to shake lose any last remaining chains from the crash of August
2011-11-17 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-17 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good day for the bulls
2011-11-17 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have now broken some important divergent spikes in several of the breadth MCO's
2011-11-17 17:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at a minimum
2011-11-17 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now see the MCO of these same indices to keep pretty much below the zero line in order to work off our highly "overbought" intermediate term extremes in the market
2011-11-17 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually we should expect this to last for 2 weeks
2011-11-17 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it can last up to 6
2011-11-17 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would put us into the end of the year
2011-11-17 17:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and year end selling
2011-11-17 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume McClellan's are doing
2011-11-17 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergent support broken on the CO NYSE volume MCO
2011-11-17 17:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what a disappointment 
2011-11-17 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finding natural resistance at the +750 level here on the CO NYSE volume MCSUM
2011-11-17 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the components say bounce near term
2011-11-17 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the composite NYSE volume MCO also broke divergent support today
2011-11-17 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we should see a near term bounce there too
2011-11-17 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have volume leading to the downside here
2011-11-17 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bounce should then be used to unload profitable positions
2011-11-17 17:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not quite time yet to short either
2011-11-17 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM's remain fairly high here
2011-11-17 17:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2011-11-17 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might see hard shake outs
2011-11-17 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not likely to trend to the downside as yet
2011-11-17 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we've been going nowhere fast over the last couple of weeks
2011-11-17 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably not a prudent play to look for much more than a simple snapback to what was pattern support up to today
2011-11-17 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1225 cash on the SPX, as an example
2011-11-17 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO isn't showing the kind of weakness we've seen in the NYSE
2011-11-17 17:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but moving to the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-11-17 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were talking about on Tuesday how the pattern was looking mighty tired here
2011-11-17 17:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the bulls really needed to step up quickly or they were likely to lose control
2011-11-17 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's pretty much what happened today
2011-11-17 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at how we weren't able to move above the March highs here
2011-11-17 17:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: huffed and puffed...and slipping and sliding now
2011-11-17 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good news here
2011-11-17 17:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are now minimally "oversold" at the -48 level on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-11-17 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components are also indicating a bounce
2011-11-17 17:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: funny thing as I'm writing this
2011-11-17 17:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my wife was reading over my shoulder
2011-11-17 17:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the impression she got today by looking at the charts that market "sagged"
2011-11-17 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much sums it up really
2011-11-17 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just "gave up"
2011-11-17 17:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX price chart
2011-11-17 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we did close below the consolidation area of the last 2 weeks today
2011-11-17 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that needs to be respected
2011-11-17 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably a near term snapback to this area would be the next technical expectation before testing today's lows
2011-11-17 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...
2011-11-17 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breakdown as well in the SPX volume MCO
2011-11-17 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we have a top at this point
2011-11-17 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we shouldn't expect much more above the 1225 near least for now
2011-11-17 17:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like Monday and Tuesday's chats are going to be well timed
2011-11-17 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OEX broke as well
2011-11-17 17:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, are the multi nationals by and large
2011-11-17 17:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's suggesting that things may not be as bright moving forward overseas now
2011-11-17 17:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO also broke down today
2011-11-17 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO is testing its divergent lows now
2011-11-17 17:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like its breadth cousin, the SML volume MCO is hanging in there...barely
2011-11-17 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO is now minimally "oversold" right now
2011-11-17 17:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components suggesting a near term bounce might be in order
2011-11-17 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing to remember here
2011-11-17 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is important as to any placements of short positions going forward
2011-11-17 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that unless something economically historic happens over the next 3-4 market days
2011-11-17 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation after the MCO breaks divergent support
2011-11-17 17:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for a snapback to or towards the zero line as to balance out the market internals on this same break
2011-11-17 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so before we see any chance of a test of the October price lows
2011-11-17 17:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have time enough to position ourselves for just such of an event
2011-11-17 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no rush here
2011-11-17 17:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as our priorities now are to exit gracefully out of longs until a better set up is given
2011-11-17 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are all climactic now
2011-11-17 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect a price reversal in the next two trading sessions
2011-11-17 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now just south of neutral
2011-11-17 17:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are mixed...and this will allow more time to pass before we see a potential for a reversal that will last more than 1 or 2 days
2011-11-17 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.96
2011-11-17 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.16
2011-11-17 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to "oversold"
2011-11-17 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will now be difficult for the bears to extend on today's sell off
2011-11-17 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.70
2011-11-17 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2011-11-17 17:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even "oversold" there
2011-11-17 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe by Monday?
2011-11-17 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.72
2011-11-17 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2011-11-17 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a nice mid point between the NYSE and NASDAQ numbers
2011-11-17 17:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-17 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have now lost control of the ball on a short term trending basis
2011-11-17 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they remain in control of the intermediate term at this stage
2011-11-17 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-11-17 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to continue to see very choppy behavior over the next couple of weeks
2011-11-17 17:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but instead of the range being, let's say, about 20-30 points on the SPX
2011-11-17 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the door has again opened for something more in the 80-100 point range to take place
2011-11-17 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a super critical basis
2011-11-17 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls MUST maintain above the MCO lows of August
2011-11-17 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they can not do this
2011-11-17 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we will then have new downside price objectives to at least the 2009 lows
2011-11-17 17:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...really...nothing has changed in one context
2011-11-17 17:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next several days remain important for both sides
2011-11-17 17:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it was the bulls who needed to flex their muscles above key resistance points in the MCSUM patterns
2011-11-17 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it's the bears turn to see how far they can push the other way
2011-11-17 17:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above all else here
2011-11-17 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more important than ever to remain highly disciplined here
2011-11-17 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not go chasing
2011-11-17 17:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait for your set up
2011-11-17 17:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will always be plenty of time to make money in either direction
2011-11-17 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and during technical breakdowns like this
2011-11-17 17:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a tendency in leading off
2011-11-17 17:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...near term here we are very "oversold"
2011-11-17 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in need of a reflex
2011-11-17 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could last till after Thanksgiving
2011-11-17 17:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2011-11-17 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have this excessive "thumb on the scale" here with the EU
2011-11-17 17:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is certainly not the time to trade emotionally
2011-11-17 17:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch what is said in the blogs and message boards
2011-11-17 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially from those who have a track record of being...umm..."impulsive" in their comments to gauge the current situation.
2011-11-17 17:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-11-17 17:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: summary...
2011-11-17 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are on a hold here
2011-11-17 17:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any long positions that have profits in them should be considered expendable at this time
2011-11-17 18:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any positions that are within break even should have applied a protective stop...and not a mental one
2011-11-17 18:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's always better to have something so that you can come back another day
2011-11-17 18:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than to think (or hope) that maybe, just maybe, we're turning around
2011-11-17 18:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...this is a business
2011-11-17 18:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: YOUR business
2011-11-17 18:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-11-17 18:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that our next chat will be this coming Monday
2011-11-17 18:01:51 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks
2011-11-17 18:01:53 [Message] gman -> Chat: Thanks Dave.  Good discussion...interesting times
2011-11-17 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll have our usual one on Tuesday to finish off the week
2011-11-17 18:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always interesting
2011-11-17 18:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never a dull moment, that's for sure
2011-11-17 18:02:22 [Message] gman -> Chat: yep
2011-11-17 18:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just keep pushing on
2011-11-17 18:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great weekend
2011-11-17 18:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look on Monday
2011-11-17 18:02:36 [Message] gman -> Chat: you too
2011-11-17 18:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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