All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,419
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-11-16 16:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-11-16 16:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-11-16 16:00:23 [Message] darris -> Chat: Hey Fib, How are you?
2010-11-16 16:00:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Super, thanks.
2010-11-16 16:00:35 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good, horrible day for the markets
2010-11-16 16:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for yours truly as well
2010-11-16 16:01:08 [Message] darris -> Chat: I did not see anything up. Even bonds were down, LOL
2010-11-16 16:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just overwhelming
2010-11-16 16:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..we knew something was up when the Bond A/D line broke trend on Friday
2010-11-16 16:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be interesting to see how we settled today
2010-11-16 16:02:20 [Message] darris -> Chat: Bond cefs saw massive bottom fishing today. breadth about even, and qcha was up just a tad
2010-11-16 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we go on, I did make a post on my cores today...I'm out
2010-11-16 16:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good year for me
2010-11-16 16:03:22 [Message] darris -> Chat: Sorry to hear about that.
2010-11-16 16:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least with my cores
2010-11-16 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it happens
2010-11-16 16:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a risk
2010-11-16 16:03:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: Sorry about that, Fib
2010-11-16 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all knew that going into the trade
2010-11-16 16:03:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: False start.
2010-11-16 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when I saw 10:1 negative plurality at noon time...I wasn't going to stand in the way
2010-11-16 16:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't think so Doc - something else is going on
2010-11-16 16:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know exactly what
2010-11-16 16:04:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: at one point I saw 165/2800. Wow.
2010-11-16 16:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this wasn't a good day internally
2010-11-16 16:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes - a lot of technical questions were answered today
2010-11-16 16:04:50 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Don't you think that we will get a bounce?
2010-11-16 16:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2010-11-16 16:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can only stretch the rubber only so far
2010-11-16 16:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have a better handle on things once we go through the data
2010-11-16 16:05:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: As you said, you'll be back.
2010-11-16 16:05:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: I am worried equities will act like the municipal bonds for a week or so. Yikes!!
2010-11-16 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...I don't look at anything until we start the chart
2010-11-16 16:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way you get my immediate impressions
2010-11-16 16:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a moment and go over a couple of things before we get started
2010-11-16 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all knew for many weeks now that the market was technically "overbought"
2010-11-16 16:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw the bulls struggle in the last month or so with the degree of separation of postings with the MCSUM's
2010-11-16 16:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke the uptrend in the NYSE breadth MCSUM a couple of weeks ago and snapped back to that trendline last week
2010-11-16 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you didn't notice I also readjusted the declining tops line on the combo chart
2010-11-16 16:08:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: yup
2010-11-16 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where we also had double resistance...what I like to call "cross hair" resistance
2010-11-16 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ, we failed to move above the +500 level on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM which was the last remaining key in the market being able to maintain levels above the April highs
2010-11-16 16:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this we were able to develop what turned out to be an exhaustion gap which are usually emotionally charged phenomenon
2010-11-16 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the mid terms here in the states, followed by the FED's announcement of QE2, this brought everything up to a head
2010-11-16 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Friday...that was a major set back with this being the first day of the refunding by the FED
2010-11-16 16:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't go very well, and then Monday was even worse
2010-11-16 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this traders started to unwind those positions which then cascaded into the other asset classes
2010-11-16 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2010-11-16 16:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...technically, this sell off was way overdue and longer term is quite healthy
2010-11-16 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what today's breadth numbers tell us is that it's going to be several weeks now before the bulls will be able to once again get a foot hold on things in order to develop a trend higher
2010-11-16 16:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how bad things are,I really don't know as yet, but I'm prepared for the worse given everything we've been talking about over the last several weeks
2010-11-16 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-11-16 16:12:58 [Message] doc -> Chat: Also clarify
2010-11-16 16:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2010-11-16 16:13:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: that selling longs does not mean go short necessarily
2010-11-16 16:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope not at all
2010-11-16 16:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's still as high as they are, we're more than likely in a consolidation least for now
2010-11-16 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we start moving below our divergent lows with any kind of authority here all bets are off
2010-11-16 16:14:27 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What lows are the divergent lows?
2010-11-16 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm getting ahead of myself...and probably shouldn't be saying anything until I get the charts up
2010-11-16 16:14:32 [Message] darris -> Chat: what divergent lows? like the spx at 1040?
2010-11-16 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the July lows on the MCO
2010-11-16 16:14:44 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-11-16 16:14:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think that is shattered...gone...kaput
2010-11-16 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we have a problem
2010-11-16 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be duly noted that we had small point changes on just about every index yesterday
2010-11-16 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-11-16 16:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today and is now highly "oversold"
2010-11-16 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this instructs us that the speed of selling is nearing a climax of this specific sequence
2010-11-16 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO horizontally and we still remain above the lows of both July and August
2010-11-16 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for this MCO...I would describe these lows as our "oversold" extremes
2010-11-16 16:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we are able to break below these specific lows this would then open the door for the price pattern to move to the lower end of the larger trading range that began earlier this year
2010-11-16 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to remember that back in the July/August period that the MCO's basically told us that our upside price objectives were minimally the May highs with an outside chance of challenging the April highs
2010-11-16 16:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it turned out, and with a whole lot of effort by the bulls, that outside objective was reached, but never at any time did we ever get new upside objectives
2010-11-16 16:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, we had talked about for several weeks how things were diverging...but we didn't confirmation of this divergence
2010-11-16 16:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have confirmation as we have bear divergence on both the MCO and the MCSUM
2010-11-16 16:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that both the short term and intermediate term direction of trend has more than likely changed, in this case, from up to down
2010-11-16 16:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now going back again to the July divergent lows, it was indicated back then that this divergence suggested to us that the late June lows would not be violated
2010-11-16 16:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this turned out to be correct in its forecast
2010-11-16 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if these same June price lows are to be violated, the MCO will need to show an extreme that would be higher than that of the May lows
2010-11-16 16:24:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: I thought that when the NYSE mco dropped below the July lows, that it signaled a test of those same lows
2010-11-16 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a usual and customary market...this would be an unreasonable expectation due to the degree of that extreme (which was an all time low in the traditional MCO)
2010-11-16 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can it be broken? sure
2010-11-16 16:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will it be broken? unlikely
2010-11-16 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have, however, many thumbs on the proverbial scale right now that can create "something different"
2010-11-16 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a cascading collapse of the EU would be one sure difference, but we have to work with what we have and not what could happen
2010-11-16 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point...if you're long...tight stops are necessary
2010-11-16 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shorting would be something to entertain only when we get our reflex rally
2010-11-16 16:26:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: on divergence, with the mcsum, you are talking about the April and November highs, right?
2010-11-16 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should occur in the next couple of days (guessing on that one until I see more data...but it seems reasonable given the lopsided intraday breadth today)
2010-11-16 16:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and your question
2010-11-16 16:28:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: what/where is the mco divergence you refer to
2010-11-16 16:28:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: we typically see many of them as the market moves up
2010-11-16 16:28:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: after the initial thrust
2010-11-16 16:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was always very important for the bulls to continue pushing things to a point of breaking the initial impulse or thrust highs
2010-11-16 16:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYA
2010-11-16 16:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO MCSUM
2010-11-16 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had a reading of around +1200
2010-11-16 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we topped out recently at around +850
2010-11-16 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a higher price high
2010-11-16 16:29:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure, that one is obvious
2010-11-16 16:30:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: the mco divergences don't help too much after the initial thrust though, right
2010-11-16 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get technical breakdowns like the recent one...they are hard to catch...correct
2010-11-16 16:30:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: most good rallies see 3 or 4 mco divergences before they matter
2010-11-16 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...not always
2010-11-16 16:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had that kind of thing happen in the 2003-2006 time frame
2010-11-16 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2010-11-16 16:31:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: well at least the ones that start with a high mco thrust
2010-11-16 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again. we are dealing with intermediate and not longer term as yet
2010-11-16 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually will see a series of at least 3 divergent structures after we see a 3 step MCSUM pattern
2010-11-16 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the 4th moves to new in 2007...and finishes things off
2010-11-16 16:32:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: Not to belabor, but since the first 10 days of the rally since Sept, we've had mco divergences, but none mattered till the last one
2010-11-16 16:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup - you never know - but the rhythm was there
2010-11-16 16:32:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: exactly
2010-11-16 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we never had a disagreement on that
2010-11-16 16:32:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: so we need more is all I'm saying
2010-11-16 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each and every decay in the speed of money flow trend was respected for what it MAY imply
2010-11-16 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we...don't NEED anything
2010-11-16 16:33:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: too true
2010-11-16 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we deal with repetition, each and every market segment is unique
2010-11-16 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has its own character based on the underlying factors that drive money in the first place
2010-11-16 16:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can, or course, use good judgment on what may occur
2010-11-16 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing the markets as we do, we can never be 100% assured that things are going to be exactly as our blueprint lays out
2010-11-16 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: odds? sure
2010-11-16 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but sometimes the odds turn into craps
2010-11-16 16:35:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: If the NY Common mco goes lower in the coming days below the July 1 lows, what will that imply?
2010-11-16 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have real problems, however, the key technical idea here is...
2010-11-16 16:35:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: Will it generate a downside target?
2010-11-16 16:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...the August lows but not much further
2010-11-16 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to break below the larger consolidation pattern
2010-11-16 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's will need to break below the double flag lows of spring
2010-11-16 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until that happens, we're still in a trading range
2010-11-16 16:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my concern is that we are now diverging both with the MCO and the MCSUM, and have basically fought off a natural unwinding process for more weeks that is usual and customary
2010-11-16 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this the market is likely to play catch up
2010-11-16 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the danger then is with human emotion
2010-11-16 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we cascade here, and people panic, all bets are off
2010-11-16 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for far...the trend higher from early September is now complete
2010-11-16 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be wave 3 in Elliott - could be wave C given the divergences - it's just too early to know
2010-11-16 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we go on, we'll get a better feel of things
2010-11-16 16:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO breadth MCO components, the 10% Trend is now below its zero line, with the 5% trend just breaking below this same line
2010-11-16 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that we should get a technical bounce higher as soon as tomorrow
2010-11-16 16:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF we don't, then we'll have bigger problems and a special chat will be indicated
2010-11-16 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term, we should see the 7400 level hold on the NYA
2010-11-16 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from that...we should start to see our bounce
2010-11-16 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that breadth of market must firm up first before prices can move in that same direction
2010-11-16 16:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely that we're either going to see a soft open tomorrow or a gap and crap situation until the breadth of market stabilizes
2010-11-16 16:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how we settled on moment - 424/2666
2010-11-16 16:42:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: Merging two techniques here, IF Oct 19th was indeed the Hurst 20wk low, the major indexes should stay above those lows, or bigger dangers exist
2010-11-16 16:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we improved later on in the day
2010-11-16 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...if that's the case Doc, if the MCO moves below that comparable price low, then it's a high probability that any challenge of that low probably isn't going to hold
2010-11-16 16:43:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: imho Doc - it won't hold
2010-11-16 16:43:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: well we know the mco are way lower now then anytime in 2 months
2010-11-16 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like stabbing your softens up that area as being vulnerable to continued damage
2010-11-16 16:44:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: based on what I said, that fits with 7400 holding for the NYA
2010-11-16 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other problem now is that with today's breakdown
2010-11-16 16:44:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: Until that breaks, we have a shot at more than a DCB
2010-11-16 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how the CO breadth MCSUM has broken below its inverted ledge
2010-11-16 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this break
2010-11-16 16:45:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: Isn't that the key ingredient that makes the mcsum divergence CONFIRMED
2010-11-16 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a very good chance now that a down trend can develop
2010-11-16 16:45:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: rather than potential
2010-11-16 16:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Doc...
breaking below this inverted ledge is confirmation
2010-11-16 16:46:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: see, we are paying attention to you
2010-11-16 16:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol well...I hope so
2010-11-16 16:46:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: divergence can burn you until they are confirmed
2010-11-16 16:46:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the size of this first move down indicates a pretty ugly sized second one
2010-11-16 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what we want to do is think bear
2010-11-16 16:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not always Lew
2010-11-16 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes the worse can happen on the initial thrust - look at the May and June period for example
2010-11-16 16:47:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Think Feb 2007
2010-11-16 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or that
2010-11-16 16:47:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: mostly a one day affair that was
2010-11-16 16:47:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: even if it is even Fib-it's a problem for a certain level of ST bullish thinking
2010-11-16 16:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I don't know if I would call it bullish thinking as I would call it playing a reflex
2010-11-16 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...I'm out
2010-11-16 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no reason to be long right now
2010-11-16 16:48:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-11-16 16:48:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2010-11-16 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money flow is indicating that we're in a correction
2010-11-16 16:48:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: Let's move on to the NY all issues, as the mco drop there is even more impressive and foreboding
2010-11-16 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't say that we're in a downtrend...yet
2010-11-16 16:49:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: all issues-WOW
2010-11-16 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2010-11-16 16:49:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: SEE
2010-11-16 16:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another problem we talked about last week
2010-11-16 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the NYSE breadth MCSUM wasn't able to move to higher highs like the commons were able to
2010-11-16 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the composite includes the interest rate sensitive issues, and we had a discussions on the collapse of the muni's on Thursday, I guess this "shot off the bow" made a direct hit and down we went
2010-11-16 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...the NYSE breadth MCO has moved below its divergent lows
2010-11-16 16:51:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: Yes and notice that the Mcsum gaped down through the Mcsum Gap support
2010-11-16 16:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should now expect that the NYSE breadth MCSUM is going to move down to at least its zero line during this sequence
2010-11-16 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the chart (and yes...exactly at gap support)
2010-11-16 16:52:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: Wow, that's a long way
2010-11-16 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our first area of probable support will be the early September lows
2010-11-16 16:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if we don't go bounce there, the zero line is the more likely level of support
2010-11-16 16:53:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: So the whole Sept rally gets retraced eventually
2010-11-16 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which then opens the door for a possible Summation Failure
2010-11-16 16:53:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: Oh, you are talking about the mcsum, not price
2010-11-16 16:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be VERY important for the bulls to keep both the separation of the postings and to find support at the +250 level during this sequence
2010-11-16 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, price is secondary
2010-11-16 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price will only echo what money flow will allow it to do
2010-11-16 16:54:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components, and here we're due for a bounce higher off the zero line on the 5%, and a snapback to or towards the zero line on the 10%
2010-11-16 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this bounce will probably be dramatic - sharp - as we've created a vacuum near term
2010-11-16 16:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't be fooled by this short covering rally as this will not be the time to add to a long position
2010-11-16 16:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since gold and silver are losing their luster...they are again leading
2010-11-16 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...actually...continue to lead
2010-11-16 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our breaking below both the July and August lows on the composite MCO
2010-11-16 16:56:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: So does this drop in the mco below the divergent July lows and the August lows set up a downside price target in your opinion?
2010-11-16 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the minimal expectation is only for a snapback to these same lows
2010-11-16 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes - getting to that - more than likely
2010-11-16 16:57:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'll stop pacing lol
2010-11-16 16:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO will initially find resistance at what was support and start to move lower again
2010-11-16 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this move starts THIS will be the all important tell of the tale
2010-11-16 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're able to remain above today's extremes (assuming that these are the extremes) then we'll then be able to see a full zero line snapback
2010-11-16 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we, however, break below these current extremes the May price lows will be in danger
2010-11-16 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next couple of days will tell us whether or not the high level consolidation pattern is likely to hold or not
2010-11-16 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we know that...then we'll have our new blueprint
2010-11-16 16:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we have broken below the divergent lows, however, we do have new downside price objectives
2010-11-16 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be a test of the NYA 6600 level (ouch)
2010-11-16 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls can rush in quickly, this will keep this level from being breached
2010-11-16 17:01:09 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: In his 'pattern for profit' from the 60's, McClellan talk about a bull market topping pattern where after a (series of) lower high (January 2010) the MCSUM will move to a higher high (April 2010), then move below zero (June 2010) and then move to a lower divergent high with price making new highs (November 2010). Often there will be three bumps on the MCSUM at the high that are repeated at the lower divergent high. I think we had three (very) small bumps on the MCSUM in April 2010, not sure if they were repeated here in October/November. Anyway, what would confirm this scenario, i.e. the end of the bull?
2010-11-16 17:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we see the MCO able to move back to the zero line instead of a simple snapback to what was previous MCO support...then the amount of price decay will slow as well
2010-11-16 17:01:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: So the Entire Sept rally could/should/will be retraced
2010-11-16 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a perfect example of what you describe Tonny can be seen in the 2003-2007 period...let me get the chart
2010-11-16 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes can
2010-11-16 17:02:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: thx
2010-11-16 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said...I didn't like the pulse today, and the break of the MCO lows opens that door far and wide
2010-11-16 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-16 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern in which Tonny was eluding to can be seen in the 2003-2007 period
2010-11-16 17:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the difference though in the last year is that we didn't see each lower high move below the MCSUM zero iine
2010-11-16 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since we have had only one zero line violation the pattern doesn't fit
2010-11-16 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see where I noted "bull market conclusion"
2010-11-16 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see how the pattern took out all of the previous divergent highs?
2010-11-16 17:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was the blow off end of the bull pattern, with the kicker being the Summation Failure
2010-11-16 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the pattern broke below the zero line the bear market started
2010-11-16 17:07:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I was kind of thinking that the pattern could be compressed somewhat because of the shorter bull
2010-11-16 17:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the amount of liquidity in the system I guess it could be
2010-11-16 17:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm open to it
2010-11-16 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are NOT moving under historical norms...that's for sure
2010-11-16 17:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you feel what's going on over in your neck of the woods - this whole thing is dangerous
2010-11-16 17:08:20 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I also only read the news
2010-11-16 17:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2010-11-16 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thing that concerns me is with Austria
2010-11-16 17:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same thing happened with Spain the first go around and then we found out why
2010-11-16 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't enough money we can print that will help since the EU is connected now
2010-11-16 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget currency wars... men have fought for less when it comes to money
2010-11-16 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if Austria is in a world of hurt, it's a pretty good bet the the former eastern block is as well
2010-11-16 17:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same eastern block that begged the EU to take them in
2010-11-16 17:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're getting away from the substance of the chat...let's move on
2010-11-16 17:10:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: With the break of the divergent July lows on the MCO, what kind of probability would you give that we test the Sept price lows? Any guidance to the chat room on the strength of confidence of that price target based on using this tool for many years?
2010-11-16 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did I answer your question Tonny?
2010-11-16 17:11:07 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Sure, thanks
2010-11-16 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem...thanks for bringing it up
2010-11-16 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...until I see more information...I give it 50/50 Doc
2010-11-16 17:11:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, thx
2010-11-16 17:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO looks to be testing its August lows
2010-11-16 17:12:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: Might depend on if Mcsum finds support at +250 or not
2010-11-16 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains above its July lows for the time being
2010-11-16 17:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might depend on a lot of things
2010-11-16 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a tremendous amount of pressure in the markets right now
2010-11-16 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our biggest problem as technicians is that we are not looking at information that is within "boundaries" as much of the markets have global elements that we've never had to deal with before
2010-11-16 17:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example, look at the price of oil when it moved to all time highs in 2007
2010-11-16 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wasn't because of US demand...but the demand from other areas of the world
2010-11-16 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this make things "different"
2010-11-16 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even to the point of what a momentum break, either internally or externally, might mean
2010-11-16 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm keeping an open mind here because even if we have downside objectives
2010-11-16 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same objectives can be "taken away" by outside global influences
2010-11-16 17:16:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: I understand. Good points.
2010-11-16 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the September lows where we had downside targets of testing the June lows and we pulled up unexpectedly
2010-11-16 17:16:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: Yes
2010-11-16 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's VERY important here to keep as flexible as possible
2010-11-16 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will do my best to give my take on things here, but we MUST continue to monitor things closely until things settle down
2010-11-16 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by that I mean until interest rates start to move higher and start to choke off these terribly high liquidity levels
2010-11-16 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now this may be happening now, however, we also know by past experience that the FED is usually asleep at the wheel when it comes to policy making decisions
2010-11-16 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example, the Bond CEF's broke trend on Friday
2010-11-16 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's no mere coincidence that the yield on the 10 year notes also broke to the upside with this A/D line break
2010-11-16 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with this break of's now highly likely that traders in the pits are going to start moving interest rates higher
2010-11-16 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will take 6 months or more for the FED to follow suit
2010-11-16 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our main focus for now is with the Bond CEF's
2010-11-16 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are our canary
2010-11-16 17:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the canary will the the markets
2010-11-16 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the thing that we have as an advantage in this area is that it takes about 2-4 months to see anything really damaging to hit the equities after such a break
2010-11-16 17:21:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I NEVER underestimate the bond traders-learned very young
2010-11-16 17:21:55 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Someone must be selling bonds big time into the FEDs POMO bying.
2010-11-16 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are the economic pulse
2010-11-16 17:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: according to the data Tonny
2010-11-16 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that isn't what's happening here
2010-11-16 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED is evidently having a tough time finding sellers
2010-11-16 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let's rephrase that
2010-11-16 17:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2010-11-16 17:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not going to touch this one
2010-11-16 17:23:07 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Why then are bond prices going down
2010-11-16 17:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: China?
2010-11-16 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan?
2010-11-16 17:23:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: A canary told me that the NASDAQ mco has bounced five times in a row from the levels we ended at today. Anyone think we can make it six?
2010-11-16 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they're are selling...
2010-11-16 17:23:40 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: That is what I mean
2010-11-16 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's the canary think?
2010-11-16 17:24:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: He's busy
2010-11-16 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line on the Bonds...just watch the A/D line
2010-11-16 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...we should see an obligatory snapback to or toward the long standing line before things worsen
2010-11-16 17:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things have become so complex with FED strategies I'm going to have to take the fifth on what may be happening here fundamentally and leave that up to others a lot smarter than myself
2010-11-16 17:26:06 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Where can the Bond CEFs AD line be seen on a daily basis?
2010-11-16 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll just have to wait for the weekend
2010-11-16 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're slow to turn
2010-11-16 17:26:47 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-11-16 17:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every 5 days will keep you from over thinking
2010-11-16 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-16 17:26:55 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-16 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is actually quite important
2010-11-16 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like a house
2010-11-16 17:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if everyone knew what the daily price was on their home there were would be utter chaos
2010-11-16 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is now testing its July lows
2010-11-16 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and highly "oversold" with a -99 reading
2010-11-16 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should then expect a reflex move near term as it becomes very hard for the MCO to move any further lower from here
2010-11-16 17:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is testing its August lows with the 5% component at its zero line
2010-11-16 17:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens with the components when we see these kind of sharp declines
2010-11-16 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the 10% component slices through its zero line with the 5% finding zero line support
2010-11-16 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bounce occurs
2010-11-16 17:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the 5% moves below its zero line
2010-11-16 17:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after that happens, that is the best time in which we can get more than just a dead cat bounce
2010-11-16 17:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would expect this kind of action over the next week
2010-11-16 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-11-16 17:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't expect much more than a day or so reflex to occur before we go for a retest
2010-11-16 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably finding a bottom by Tuesday of next week, and then rally on either side of the holiday
2010-11-16 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll see how things look the week of the 29th
2010-11-16 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me
2010-11-16 17:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of Thursday of next week being a holiday, we will have our chats on Monday and Tuesday...if that's OK with everyone
2010-11-16 17:33:06 [Message] cycletrader -> Chat: yes
2010-11-16 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would say Wednesday by many like to travel on that day
2010-11-16 17:33:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: ok by me
2010-11-16 17:33:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2010-11-16 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...onward
2010-11-16 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO has moved ahead of the SPX now
2010-11-16 17:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can also see the amplitude of selling right now with the OEX breadth MCSUM with the large separation of the gaps seen on the chart
2010-11-16 17:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: compare that with the month of October...and you can see the difference when we refer to who has the power in these things
2010-11-16 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: luckily the MCSUM's are as high as they are
2010-11-16 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't want to think what could have happened to price today if the the MCSUM's were closer to their zero lines
2010-11-16 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO is testing its July lows, and we should look for the +750 level to show some support with the Dow breadth mCSUM
2010-11-16 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the MID and SML breadth MCSUM broke below the previous inverted ledges starting points today which basically caused the large move lower
2010-11-16 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the high imbalance in the breadth numbers during the day
2010-11-16 17:38:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the SML and MID breadth MCO's remain above their summer lows
2010-11-16 17:38:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: these summation gaps look massive
2010-11-16 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good thing near term
2010-11-16 17:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are
2010-11-16 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get MCO readings above the 60 level...the gaps look quite impressive
2010-11-16 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all of the MCO's seen so far below -80...there you go
2010-11-16 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind that the distance you see between each dot on the MCSUM gives you a visual way of grasping the amount of selling or buying there is at any one time in the market
2010-11-16 17:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so today...there was lots of selling and that should show up in the TRIN numbers
2010-11-16 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO also had a technical breakdown today below its summer lows
2010-11-16 17:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quickly looking at the breadth sectors
2010-11-16 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE data just turned down today
2010-11-16 17:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2010-11-16 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO is at new lows but due for a bounce
2010-11-16 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside price objective there...28
2010-11-16 17:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...we had a warning with the defensive issues on Thursday?
2010-11-16 17:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO is challenging its summer extremes now
2010-11-16 17:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCSUM is suddenly at its zero line
2010-11-16 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about fast!
2010-11-16 17:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it took 5 trading days to go from +500 to zero!
2010-11-16 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not a good thing for interest rates
2010-11-16 17:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was talked about over a month ago
2010-11-16 17:45:21 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: XLU is below the July divergent low on MCSUM
2010-11-16 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're going to it now
2010-11-16 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but still above the May lows
2010-11-16 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the important one for now
2010-11-16 17:45:51 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-11-16 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't want to see that broken or the price pattern can take out those same lows
2010-11-16 17:46:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: It wasn't really a divergent low
2010-11-16 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the better news we had up until today was that the volume plurality was hanging in there and lagging breadth to the downside
2010-11-16 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take a quick look there
2010-11-16 17:47:04 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: True, too quick
2010-11-16 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO and composite volume MCO's remain above their summer lows
2010-11-16 17:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's a good thing
2010-11-16 17:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not so with the NDX
2010-11-16 17:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the tech sector is about to get a good ole fashion shake out
2010-11-16 17:48:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: But the volume McSum are way lower too for CO and composite
2010-11-16 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...and due for a bounce
2010-11-16 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking further
2010-11-16 17:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and OEX are "OK"
2010-11-16 17:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID and SML minimally so
2010-11-16 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TM isn't
2010-11-16 17:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-11-16 17:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we are now in a correction process
2010-11-16 17:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could turn into something more
2010-11-16 17:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to remember that Congress just came back yesterday
2010-11-16 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they don't do anything about the 2002 tax cuts quickly
2010-11-16 17:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people are going to have to take profits now
2010-11-16 17:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because our capital gains tax rate is going to double after the new year
2010-11-16 17:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add this bit of salt to China's growth, and the Euro situation, and the next several weeks may be tough
2010-11-16 17:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2010-11-16 17:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are highly "oversold"
2010-11-16 17:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a price bottom within 2 trading days
2010-11-16 17:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are now "oversold"
2010-11-16 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see our bounce, retest, and then thrust higher scenario play out over the next week
2010-11-16 17:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are uninspired (for lack of a better descriptor)
2010-11-16 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN At 2.27
2010-11-16 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2010-11-16 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2010-11-16 17:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was another problem yesterday with the small point MCO changes
2010-11-16 17:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the NASDAQ and TM "oversold" on the Open 10, but not the NYSE
2010-11-16 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something had to give
2010-11-16 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gave it did
2010-11-16 17:54:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: But the stoch suggest up was possible
2010-11-16 17:54:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: The nymo stoch was buried low
2010-11-16 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should again be mindful of the high 21 day and 55 day simple TRIN numbers
2010-11-16 17:54:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-11-16 17:54:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: even more so now
2010-11-16 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buried is right
2010-11-16 17:55:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: dead and buried, huh?
2010-11-16 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.61
2010-11-16 17:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too early to say on the buried part...but the reflex should be a large one
2010-11-16 17:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of those "gain through the day" type of rallies
2010-11-16 17:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ Open 10 at 1.10
2010-11-16 17:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so..."oversold"
2010-11-16 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 2.44
2010-11-16 17:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2010-11-16 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not deep enough to call a low as yet
2010-11-16 17:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-11-16 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it finally appears that we're going to correct the excesses of the last two months
2010-11-16 17:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now..near term...a bounce higher is indicated
2010-11-16 17:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both for the sake of the 5% MCO component and the CVI
2010-11-16 17:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internal bounce should have an initial problem moving above what was the previous MCO summer lows
2010-11-16 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after some back and filling into the end of the week, and possibly early next week (after OPEX), we should see a better zero line snapback rally occur
2010-11-16 17:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who are long should have taken money off the table today with the intraday numbers
2010-11-16 17:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those who are still holding are looking for an exit
2010-11-16 17:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stops are a priority now
2010-11-16 18:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we get our snapback....we'll see how things look for working the other side
2010-11-16 18:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-11-16 18:00:28 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I have noticed that the Dow 30 AD line diverges a lot from the Dow 30 AD volume line during the past 2 months. I think it is strange as all 30 stocks are big stocks with big volume. It must mean that the up days were on small volume and the down days were on big volume. Is that significant intermediate term.
2010-11-16 18:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2010-11-16 18:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard to know when you're dealing with only 30 stocks
2010-11-16 18:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it all depends on the weight
2010-11-16 18:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I do know is the lesser amount of components in an index the higher the degree of volatility
2010-11-16 18:01:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think we gap North and drop deeper before the larger reflex bounce
2010-11-16 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall premise I can agree with
2010-11-16 18:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how we get there is open for debate
2010-11-16 18:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I do suggest for day traders is to continue to hit and run and keeping a watchful eye on breadth dynamics during the day'
2010-11-16 18:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because...once the reflex begins...the breadth numbers are going to switch quickly
2010-11-16 18:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason being
2010-11-16 18:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you're at extremes like this the majority of stocks are fairly close to being unchanged from the previous days close
2010-11-16 18:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the tide starts moving out, it sucks these same issues from negative to positive quite quickly
2010-11-16 18:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we're dealing in pennies
2010-11-16 18:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be the same thing if we were trading in 1/8's or 1/4's but the price change would be that much greater only...and nothing to do with the physics
2010-11-16 18:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just don't get "cute"
2010-11-16 18:05:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: FYI, IBD changed their market outlook to market in correction today.
2010-11-16 18:05:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: no surprise
2010-11-16 18:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes sense
2010-11-16 18:05:48 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: cute?
2010-11-16 18:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was in correction mode on Friday
2010-11-16 18:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an American expression Tonny
2010-11-16 18:06:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: For hit and run shorts, do you think xlf is a reasonable target?
2010-11-16 18:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you tend to "tip toe" around something that can bite you on the arse
2010-11-16 18:06:26 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-11-16 18:06:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: maybe selling if it gets back towards 15 which was resistance?
2010-11-16 18:06:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you cured my cuteness, lol
2010-11-16 18:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no opinion on the Financials for now
2010-11-16 18:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-16 18:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-11-16 18:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is it worth...what? .25 a share?
2010-11-16 18:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch BAC now
2010-11-16 18:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch C
2010-11-16 18:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch JPM
2010-11-16 18:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the stocks that were on our list a couple of weeks ago as being a problem
2010-11-16 18:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will be the first to be....ummm....taken out back
2010-11-16 18:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we have a cascading EU here
2010-11-16 18:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing is going to be spared
2010-11-16 18:08:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice, woodshed talk, lol
2010-11-16 18:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that includes the mega banks
2010-11-16 18:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-11-16 18:08:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: nope.
2010-11-16 18:08:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: nice review
2010-11-16 18:08:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great session, fine takes - thanks much!
2010-11-16 18:08:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes, great review. Thanks!
2010-11-16 18:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key now is to make back what we lost over the last couple of days
2010-11-16 18:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but do it with a strategy
2010-11-16 18:09:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: if we don't have an up day tomorrow, more of the indexes and sectors are gonna break their July divergent lows
2010-11-16 18:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last thing
2010-11-16 18:09:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: where divergent
2010-11-16 18:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF the markets sell off hard again on Wednesday, and NYSE breadth of market is greater than 6:1 to the negative, there will be a special chat session on Wednesday
2010-11-16 18:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the reason why for the special chat Doc
2010-11-16 18:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great minds think alike!
2010-11-16 18:10:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: yup
2010-11-16 18:10:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for that!
2010-11-16 18:10:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: and for those wondering about a crash potential
2010-11-16 18:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're all in this together
2010-11-16 18:10:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: shouldn't happen
2010-11-16 18:10:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: with the Mcsum's this high
2010-11-16 18:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's important to learn while things are in motion
2010-11-16 18:11:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: unless fat fingers get involved
2010-11-16 18:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct Doc
2010-11-16 18:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless...
2010-11-16 18:11:31 [Message] orange -> Chat: what is your interpretation of a crash?
2010-11-16 18:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the EU has to sell our cheap stocks to generate cash to save Greece...Ireland...Portugal...or Spain
2010-11-16 18:11:42 [Message] orange -> Chat: a couple 1-2% down days, or a 5% down day?
2010-11-16 18:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me?
2010-11-16 18:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...welcome Matt
2010-11-16 18:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to have you
2010-11-16 18:12:02 [Message] orange -> Chat: hi =)
2010-11-16 18:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to me...
2010-11-16 18:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a crash
2010-11-16 18:12:13 [Message] orange -> Chat: you or doc,
2010-11-16 18:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is anything more than 10% in one day
2010-11-16 18:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can have "crash like" events
2010-11-16 18:12:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: i can live with that
2010-11-16 18:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds of that happening NOW is maybe...25%
2010-11-16 18:12:52 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Do you have a take on probabilities that we are in wave 4 of 5 as opposed to wave 1 of 5 down?
2010-11-16 18:12:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: In May, Dow down 1000 pts, that's a crash
2010-11-16 18:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's always something that can put its thumb on the scale
2010-11-16 18:13:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I like the wave 4 idea for now as long as the May MCO lows are not taken out
2010-11-16 18:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are....
2010-11-16 18:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we just finished a flat
2010-11-16 18:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we go
2010-11-16 18:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Gainesville will be jumping for joy
2010-11-16 18:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2010-11-16 18:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-11-16 18:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2010-11-16 18:14:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: Hope we don't see you tomorrow
2010-11-16 18:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see you again on Thursday unless....
2010-11-16 18:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-11-16 18:16:21 [Message] darris -> Chat: If NY breadth is the same tomorrow as it was today, the MCO value would be around -115
2010-11-16 18:16:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: Today could have been the 5wk low I was looking for, if so we could get a strong rally after the morning stuff gets dealt with tomorrow. Just don't like the internals destructed like this.
2010-11-16 18:17:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: The Oct 19th low on SPX has to hold, and that is right around 1160 cash
2010-11-16 18:17:39 [Message] darris -> Chat: Like the NAMO, if you draw a horizontal line around minus 80 on the NYMO, you get a decent bottom looking structure on the taps.
2010-11-16 18:17:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: be careful Doc
2010-11-16 18:18:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: I am lew. I only have small positions on right now.
2010-11-16 18:18:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 38.2 around 1155 Darris?
2010-11-16 18:18:56 [Message] darris -> Chat: Go back and look at the Oct 2009 MCO spike downs when the municipal bonds where getting destroyed like now. by the way the municipal bonds had a huge bounce today
2010-11-16 18:19:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: Harder to hold overnight longs after the last few days
2010-11-16 18:19:06 [Message] darris -> Chat: spx 1140 spooky
2010-11-16 18:19:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2010-11-16 18:19:31 [Message] darris -> Chat: that would get close enough for the Oct 4th or 5th gap fill. ES 1135ish I think
2010-11-16 18:19:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, and have room to 1130 before we can rule the 4 out
2010-11-16 18:19:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: well with the premium decay more like 1138ish
2010-11-16 18:20:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: We got a Hurst downside target generated today to 1150 cash spx
2010-11-16 18:21:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx Doc!-love those projections
2010-11-16 18:21:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: Yeah, but what do we have now? 1130, 1140, 1150, and 1160, lol
2010-11-16 18:22:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-11-16 18:22:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think this first wave is saying 1140's, though
2010-11-16 18:22:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: that's always the problem. Different tools and you get a spread of targets. Best when a few line up closely
2010-11-16 18:23:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well Darris likes that too and its a Fib retracement
2010-11-16 18:23:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll have what I consider a close number by Thursday, twt-but I'd follow Darris in a pinch, lol!
2010-11-16 18:24:25 [Message] darris -> Chat: We did the 24~% retracement today at 1175, so we should be watching close here
2010-11-16 18:25:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: Spooky, you had fun with GOOG on the way up, hope you are having fun with it on the way down, too. It's into its gap after earning now
2010-11-16 18:25:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think the problem lies with the daily Darris-looks like 5 down, I'm thinking "A"
2010-11-16 18:25:13 [Message] darris -> Chat: Also the ES did 54 pts down off the high print, and this has been a long and strong uptrend
2010-11-16 18:26:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: been doing FFIV, bidu, doc
2010-11-16 18:26:54 [Message] darris -> Chat: Money flow down dollars were not that high today either. Anyway, the Euro looks good for some bouncy tonight, LOL
2010-11-16 18:27:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: trading tonite Darris?
2010-11-16 18:27:46 [Message] darris -> Chat: As usual. In at 1.3478
2010-11-16 18:28:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet-1086=88 looks doable to me, as well
2010-11-16 18:28:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: There is always something that looks good to me. Long or short.
2010-11-16 18:28:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 1186=1188, lol
2010-11-16 18:28:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: spx?
2010-11-16 18:28:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ES
2010-11-16 18:29:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: Yes, that is the R1 zone for tomorrow on the ES 1186-1188.
2010-11-16 18:29:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: been loving playing both ways lately-luckily, have been in sync
2010-11-16 18:30:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx Darris, makes sense
2010-11-16 18:30:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: Gotta go guys. Good luck on all your trades.
2010-11-16 18:30:41 [Message] darris -> Chat: see you later doc
2010-11-16 18:30:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: you as well!
2010-11-16 18:30:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: thx
2010-11-16 18:31:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good fortune tonight Darris
2010-11-16 18:32:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: thanks spooky and you as well tomorrow!!

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch