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Posts: 4,885
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-15 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-11-15 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-15 16:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-11-15 16:02:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice dip today
2011-11-15 16:02:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bought a bit more
2011-11-15 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2011-11-15 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the funny thing is that I thought I put in a stop at 1244.50 yesterday
2011-11-15 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it turned out
2011-11-15 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hit the wrong key and it was at I didn't get stopped out!
2011-11-15 16:03:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: NICE
2011-11-15 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it's a sign?
2011-11-15 16:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-15 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there isn't any questions, let me get DP up
2011-11-15 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for Hoon
2011-11-15 16:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: go to the front page tab
2011-11-15 16:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: under there will be McClellan Oscillator - 1 yr - on the right hand side
2011-11-15 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me know when you get there
2011-11-15 16:05:12 [Message] hkk -> Chat: I'm there
2011-11-15 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2011-11-15 16:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're first chart should be of the Common Only data
2011-11-15 16:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all you have to do is click on the chart and it will take you to the next one in sequence
2011-11-15 16:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will help guide you in the other areas
2011-11-15 16:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: use your back button on your browser to return to the prior chart
2011-11-15 16:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2011-11-15 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get going
2011-11-15 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving again to test its zero line on Monday
2011-11-15 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO gave us our obligatory bounce off this same line today
2011-11-15 16:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2011-11-15 16:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the zero line on any oscillator acts as a balance point between buyers and sellers
2011-11-15 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we're moving into the apex on a triangle on many of the major market indices
2011-11-15 16:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this helps reinforce our current indecision between the market participants
2011-11-15 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking our line of vision to the bottom of this chart
2011-11-15 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the components that make up this MCO are still in a crossover buy configuration
2011-11-15 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remain well above their zero line
2011-11-15 16:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2011-11-15 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for prices to trend in either direction
2011-11-15 16:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to see both the MCO and its components reside on the same side of their zero lines at the same time
2011-11-15 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when one or the other do no agree, we should then expect corrective activity
2011-11-15 16:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to be choppy
2011-11-15 16:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both oscillators above the zero line currently
2011-11-15 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to have control of the underlying tone of the market
2011-11-15 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're treading just in and around the zero line on the MCO
2011-11-15 16:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not a whole lot of conviction by the bulls at this time
2011-11-15 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at the same time
2011-11-15 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see this choppy, but bullish behavior in both the structure and the degree in which the individual postings on this MCSUM are showing compression between each other
2011-11-15 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the distance between one post and the other
2011-11-15 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-11-15 16:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some of this is due to the natural tendency of "huffing and puffing" when we become as "oversold" or "overbought" as we are at the current time
2011-11-15 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have the added question of how things are going to sort out in the EU and how it may effect future earnings (or even if it will)
2011-11-15 16:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so the indecision
2011-11-15 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the ratio adjusted NYSE composite breadth data -(Hoon...two clicks)
2011-11-15 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see pretty much the same situation with the broader market issues that make up this exchange of stocks
2011-11-15 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we are now right up against the "bear's last line of defense" - the +800 level - where we saw the highs last February
2011-11-15 16:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will important for the bulls to continue to at least sneak up on this target
2011-11-15 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that they will be in proper position to have the opportunity to move above this area
2011-11-15 16:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was something in which we briefly talked about as being on possibility last week
2011-11-15 16:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the way the market sold off last Wednesday where many option speculators are now caught holding worthless options that will expire the end of this week
2011-11-15 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2011-11-15 16:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may not be able to do much until Thursday or Friday
2011-11-15 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just chop around
2011-11-15 16:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday today, however
2011-11-15 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did finish the minimal expectation of a fully completed symmetrical triangle
2011-11-15 16:20:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that launch off the bottom made the possible finish look pretty good to me
2011-11-15 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the finish would come on any move above the 1267 cash level on the SPX
2011-11-15 16:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 200 day SMA is at the 1272 level
2011-11-15 16:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a parabolic SAR buy signal would take place on any daily print of 1279
2011-11-15 16:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we have three areas of technical resistance to overcome
2011-11-15 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's no wonder that we continue to compress here
2011-11-15 16:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-11-15 16:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM is positioning itself at a point where any break above the February highs would be a highly bullish event
2011-11-15 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so everything is pointing to a key juncture for both sides here
2011-11-15 16:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears, however, they don't have much control with the MCSUM as high as it is
2011-11-15 16:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we could break to the downside
2011-11-15 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take something on the level of nuclear bomb to just collapse from here
2011-11-15 16:22:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: for the record, I'd be OK with a gap up through the resistance, LOL
2011-11-15 16:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that the odds favor an upside break out
2011-11-15 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that too!
2011-11-15 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually that is what happens in these kinds of cases
2011-11-15 16:23:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-11-15 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to stress the point
2011-11-15 16:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today I received a free copy from Market Watch on their "technical analysis" product that they sell
2011-11-15 16:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the analyst was showing that we are at a most critical juncture here
2011-11-15 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when Market Watch gets into the act
2011-11-15 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you can be sure that those that don't even know or care about such things as major technical breakouts may help in piling on when the move actually takes place
2011-11-15 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case
2011-11-15 16:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it's likely to be a news related item that will be the excuse for these same folks to follow the "warning"
2011-11-15 16:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with that out of the way
2011-11-15 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's discuss a potential problem for the bulls that we haven't talked about as yet
2011-11-15 16:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: generally speaking
2011-11-15 16:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get bull market conditions as confirmed by the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we usually see is a peak extreme in the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then at least 3-4 lower divergent tops as the energy of the initial breadth thrust loses its punch
2011-11-15 16:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will usually take place over a period of 1-2 years
2011-11-15 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after that
2011-11-15 16:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to finish off the bull market signal
2011-11-15 16:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do tend to get a nice move higher in the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that does take out the declining tops line that was controlling this same series of tops beneath tops pattern
2011-11-15 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at a longer term chart of the MCSUM going back to 2002
2011-11-15 16:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that in 2006 we had pretty much the same kind of pattern going on that we have right now
2011-11-15 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-15 16:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you give me a moment
2011-11-15 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will upload a chart so you can see what I'm referring to
2011-11-15 16:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2011-11-15 16:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-15 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone see the chart?
2011-11-15 16:32:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-11-15 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take it apart for a moment
2011-11-15 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in 2002 we saw a rare 3 step bull market buy signal on the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after we peaked out 2003
2011-11-15 16:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a series of tops beneath tops controlling the pattern
2011-11-15 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we thrusted higher in 2006 to a point in which I annotated "bull market conclusion"
2011-11-15 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this is internally
2011-11-15 16:34:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not what prices were doing
2011-11-15 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're referring to the energy factor that allows prices to move against the bear market default
2011-11-15 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we eventually had a Summation Failure in 2007 that led to the actual price top
2011-11-15 16:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it took about a year before things actually fell apart
2011-11-15 16:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...moving to now
2011-11-15 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can again see another 3 step buy signal in 2009
2011-11-15 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again a series of lower tops on the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where now we're moving just as we did in 2006
2011-11-15 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be referred to those traders who had missed the majority of the uptrend created by the 3 step buy
2011-11-15 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and coming into the market as the last of the "unwilling" buyers
2011-11-15 16:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with all that said
2011-11-15 16:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is a really big difference between the 2006/2007 period and now...
2011-11-15 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone want to guess what that is?
2011-11-15 16:37:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: liquidity
2011-11-15 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means?
2011-11-15 16:37:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: more money available
2011-11-15 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because?
2011-11-15 16:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-15 16:38:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: low rates, printing
2011-11-15 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BINGO!
2011-11-15 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in 2005-2006
2011-11-15 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Fed was raising interest rates making the cost of money more expensive
2011-11-15 16:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sucking liquidity out of the market
2011-11-15 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today is quite different
2011-11-15 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least in this area of analysis
2011-11-15 16:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-11-15 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could it be that these guideline doesn't apply this time around given what's going on in the EU?
2011-11-15 16:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that, unfortunately, is the big question here
2011-11-15 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have never had this kind of circumstance before
2011-11-15 16:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however...
2011-11-15 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best thing about what's going on over there
2011-11-15 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it's happening quite quickly
2011-11-15 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not taking 20 years to get clarity here
2011-11-15 16:40:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is probably the reason why liquidity is coming into equities as much as it is right now
2011-11-15 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that clarity will be known sooner than later
2011-11-15 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what about Spain?
2011-11-15 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Portugal?
2011-11-15 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Ireland?
2011-11-15 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how will this all effect Germany and France?
2011-11-15 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these, of course, are also unknown factors to this equation of this same liquidity quotient of what may or may not be available for equities to work with
2011-11-15 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I bring this up now for several reasons
2011-11-15 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first of all is that we are approaching some significant levels of resistance on the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after we have basically moved higher for over 6 weeks now
2011-11-15 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just like a runner who's running a marathon up hill
2011-11-15 16:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now showing quite a bit of fatigue at this juncture by the congested posts on the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where the market might be vulnerable to at least take a rest on the sidelines to catch its brea(d)th
2011-11-15 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have one of the tried and true termination patterns on the MCSUM here to consider as well
2011-11-15 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then if you take these together
2011-11-15 16:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our being as high as we are right now with the MCSUM's
2011-11-15 16:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't at all be having this kind of price consolidation here given the amplitude we see in the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-15 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although things remain in the bulls court
2011-11-15 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to aware that we might be looking at some sort of extended period of consolidation here that might act as a rogue wave of some kind
2011-11-15 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only to help in re-establishing the trend higher
2011-11-15 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this may be nothing at all
2011-11-15 16:46:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: to me, it still looks like we have some upside time left, at least a week or two-am I reading it wrong?
2011-11-15 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we wouldn't be doing our homework if we didn't look at both sides of the equation
2011-11-15 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be  Lew
2011-11-15 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to remember
2011-11-15 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even if the MCSUM does top out here
2011-11-15 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're more than likely going to see new price highs later one (minimally) as the MCSUM turns higher from lower levels before finally moving back below its zero line
2011-11-15 16:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're doing here is presenting both sides of the coin
2011-11-15 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't really care which way the market wants to go
2011-11-15 16:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now that we're at where we are
2011-11-15 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now time to bring this to the table for discussion
2011-11-15 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's so important for the bulls to not only break above the spring highs
2011-11-15 16:48:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it must do so with as much conviction and vigor as they can in doing so
2011-11-15 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that we won't get a bull market termination on the internals
2011-11-15 16:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-11-15 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is high enough to where we shouldn't see a change in trend to the downside to at least February
2011-11-15 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...this is more of an intermediate to longer term consideration of a top in the liquidity flow that drives prices higher
2011-11-15 16:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't at least mention it
2011-11-15 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bring home, again, the reason why the importance to get a break above the ceiling we're at now
2011-11-15 16:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair?
2011-11-15 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to help us here
2011-11-15 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch gold
2011-11-15 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it will lead our breakout
2011-11-15 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and being that we're as close as we are
2011-11-15 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would mean over the next week or so we should see something rather decisive with gold's price pattern
2011-11-15 16:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2011-11-15 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crude closed at new recovery highs today
2011-11-15 16:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now challenging the July highs
2011-11-15 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up $13 since the October lows
2011-11-15 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without much in the way of fanfare either
2011-11-15 16:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which brings up the question
2011-11-15 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would crude be moving higher here?
2011-11-15 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could say the news from the Middle East of a possible strike by Israel o Iran might be one reason...or the fighting in Syria
2011-11-15 16:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but would that have that much to do with West Texas light?
2011-11-15 16:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know really
2011-11-15 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what I do know
2011-11-15 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2011-11-15 16:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is following the pace of gold's historic rise from the $1500 level to $1900 very nicely
2011-11-15 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if continues to do so
2011-11-15 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the month of December should see quite a rally there
2011-11-15 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...getting back on track here...let's go to the NASDAQ data
2011-11-15 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation here with the NASDAQ breadth MCO, MCSUM, and the price pattern
2011-11-15 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note that now the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now less than 50 data points away from its important resistance level of +250
2011-11-15 16:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know and have discussed many times before
2011-11-15 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that this level be taken out with vigor
2011-11-15 16:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the NASDAQ will be quite vulnerable to bear market conditions moving forward
2011-11-15 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, going back to the possible termination pattern in the MCSUM
2011-11-15 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually do see the secondaries top out first before the primaries
2011-11-15 16:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the good news there is that the pattern continues to rise
2011-11-15 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing that we have more buyers than sellers
2011-11-15 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're congested in the individual postings
2011-11-15 16:59:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more a matter of a lack of sellers out there
2011-11-15 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any buying pushing up prices without much in the way of needing volume to do so
2011-11-15 17:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2011-11-15 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to see bottoms above bottoms controlling the NDX breadth MCO pattern
2011-11-15 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we continue to see higher highs on the NDX breadth MCSUM as a result
2011-11-15 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been saying since mid October
2011-11-15 17:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the NDX price index to move to above the multiple tops we see on the one year chart
2011-11-15 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see the NDX breadth MCSUM move above its own levels of resistance
2011-11-15 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: namely the +750/+800 level
2011-11-15 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's reading? +679
2011-11-15 17:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're sneaking up there
2011-11-15 17:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting into a position to launch an attack if needed
2011-11-15 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-11-15 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is war
2011-11-15 17:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the bears backing up and trying to hold the territory in which they picked up during the August campaign
2011-11-15 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls are attempting to take this parcel back slowly, but surely
2011-11-15 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2011-11-15 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here again
2011-11-15 17:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we have a small series of bottom above bottoms in place here
2011-11-15 17:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also
2011-11-15 17:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that these bottoms co-ordinate to the lows in the symmetrical triangle
2011-11-15 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that for every test on the downside
2011-11-15 17:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: less and less sellers were there to feed the decline
2011-11-15 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pattern, above all else, instructs us that this same symmetrical triangle
2011-11-15 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pattern of indecision
2011-11-15 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will eventually break to the side in which there is more control
2011-11-15 17:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the lessening of selling with each bottom
2011-11-15 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls, therefore, are the odds on favorite to move the price pattern out of this same congestion area
2011-11-15 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we had a series of lower lows
2011-11-15 17:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would expect the bears to win this same battle
2011-11-15 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds here are good for a long
2011-11-15 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who may want more weight
2011-11-15 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you wait for the breakout
2011-11-15 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case - 1267 cash
2011-11-15 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: warning
2011-11-15 17:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the underlying news accompanying this triangle
2011-11-15 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising to see a quick shake out to the downside INTRADAY first before the actual break to the upside
2011-11-15 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's important that you set any stops on long positions with a bit of distance to allow for this kind of thing to take place
2011-11-15 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me
2011-11-15 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm should be 1244.50
2011-11-15 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it turned out to be 1243.50 by mistake
2011-11-15 17:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if it's for a moment
2011-11-15 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you cover
2011-11-15 17:09:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: leave it, LOL
2011-11-15 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can always go back in on the breakout
2011-11-15 17:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am
2011-11-15 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't touch it
2011-11-15 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got to 1244.34 as the low today
2011-11-15 17:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I thought to myself
2011-11-15 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "once again...darn...they saw my stop and went after it"
2011-11-15 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy was I surprised when the position was still open! lol
2011-11-15 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...just call it luck
2011-11-15 17:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes you need that in this business as well
2011-11-15 17:11:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea!
2011-11-15 17:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2011-11-15 17:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we come to the area in which the bulls can hang their collective hats on
2011-11-15 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's with the OEX breadth MCSUM and MCO
2011-11-15 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have already moved to new yearly highs here
2011-11-15 17:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this really increases the likelihood of a continued advance
2011-11-15 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and quickly looking at the 3 year chart
2011-11-15 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are right now knocking on the door of the 2010 highs
2011-11-15 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have another MCSUM right at very important resistance levels
2011-11-15 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by the way Hoon
2011-11-15 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look below the combo charts
2011-11-15 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see the other links you can go to
2011-11-15 17:13:59 [Message] hkk -> Chat: I see them
2011-11-15 17:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the middle is the McClellan links...1 year and 3 year
2011-11-15 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great!
2011-11-15 17:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to the one year OEX
2011-11-15 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have both higher highs and higher lows in place there
2011-11-15 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...until this pattern is broken
2011-11-15 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains with the bulls
2011-11-15 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the Dow breadth data
2011-11-15 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCSUM is now testing its February highs
2011-11-15 17:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best thing about this test
2011-11-15 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have nice post expansion here with this MCSUM
2011-11-15 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then suggest that we're not going to have too much in the way of problems moving to new highs
2011-11-15 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HOWEVER
2011-11-15 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're also cognizant of the fact that we ARE at these same highs
2011-11-15 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our being just above the zero line here
2011-11-15 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a piece of bad news could be enough to halt this same upward progress in the MCSUM
2011-11-15 17:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID
2011-11-15 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have again a small series of bottoms above bottoms on the MID breadth MCO supporting the current symmetrical triangle on the price chart
2011-11-15 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would again indicate the likelihood of a upside resolution to this pattern
2011-11-15 17:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM is now at its highest levels of the year...aside from the February highs
2011-11-15 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...with these same bottoms controlling the MCO pattern
2011-11-15 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also suggest that the we're likely to see this MCSUM moving to new highs here because of this close proximately to these same highs
2011-11-15 17:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another triangle on the SML price chart
2011-11-15 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and another series of bottoms above bottoms in the SML breadth MCO supporting the price pattern
2011-11-15 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus we also have the SML breadth MCSUM continuing to make higher highs here
2011-11-15 17:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we come to the total market data
2011-11-15 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the TM breadth MCSUM is now 14 data points away from the +500 level
2011-11-15 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this level, of course, being our area where we see the internals move to "escape velocity" up and away from the bear market default
2011-11-15 17:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-15 17:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the clock is close now to striking 12
2011-11-15 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals continue to suggest that we're likely to breakout to the upside of the current indecision pattern
2011-11-15 17:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's at levels in which are either important or key to the longevity of the current uptrend
2011-11-15 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this compression point, when released, is likely to show quite a bit of movement
2011-11-15 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally speaking
2011-11-15 17:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this same triangle has likely had its completion at 11:30 today
2011-11-15 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2011-11-15 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see .618 Fib support at 1252.25 cash on Wednesday
2011-11-15 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break then below 1250
2011-11-15 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would call this completion into question
2011-11-15 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we said last week
2011-11-15 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here to watch is breadth plurality
2011-11-15 17:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will lead
2011-11-15 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the MCSUM continues to move higher
2011-11-15 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer and stronger the current price structure will be
2011-11-15 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions?
2011-11-15 17:27:48 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Because it is OPEX week I am concerned about a bull trap in the likeness of a breakout
2011-11-15 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be more afraid of a bear trap given the underlying strength here
2011-11-15 17:28:37 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I am long, so bear trap is not my fear
2011-11-15 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO is not showing the kind of structure where the MCSUM can either roll over or change direction abruptly
2011-11-15 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good
2011-11-15 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will provide another, and maybe final, chance to buy at wholesale
2011-11-15 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are "that close" now to something significant occurring
2011-11-15 17:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there could be one more ambush by the bears before we're good to go
2011-11-15 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from what I can see
2011-11-15 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing here saying sell off
2011-11-15 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take something totally not expected to break the back of this near term buoyancy
2011-11-15 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many folks looking for a downside resolution here
2011-11-15 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will keep things from moving in this same direction
2011-11-15 17:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not too many out there who's bullish, that's for sure
2011-11-15 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's the play
2011-11-15 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when you have money flow backing you up
2011-11-15 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to the longer term MCSUM pattern idea we talked about earlier
2011-11-15 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't want anyone in here to be spooked about this
2011-11-15 17:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is something more of a longer term pattern that will have little to do with short term dynamics
2011-11-15 17:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's only if we can't find a way to move above these current levels of resistance
2011-11-15 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more for education than anything else
2011-11-15 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking quickly through the volume McClellan's
2011-11-15 17:33:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: was cool to review, though, much appreciated!
2011-11-15 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too you can see the compression going on with the NYSE CO and composite volume MCO
2011-11-15 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2011-11-15 17:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you won't find that kind of info anywhere
2011-11-15 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-15 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I doubt many who use the MCO and MCSUM are even aware of this structural pattern
2011-11-15 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although one can read about it in the "Patterns for Profit" booklet that Sherman and Marion wrote back in the mid 60's
2011-11-15 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...that's 50 years ago!
2011-11-15 17:36:00 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you should write the new one Fib
2011-11-15 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you and others have asked me to do so
2011-11-15 17:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just don't have the time...yet
2011-11-15 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day...maybe
2011-11-15 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the NASDAQ volume MCO
2011-11-15 17:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice how it continues to show our current indecisive tone by moving in and around its zero line
2011-11-15 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a triangular form, no less!
2011-11-15 17:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the congestion with the NASDAQ volume MCSUM as a result
2011-11-15 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: upward bias here
2011-11-15 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means there is more up volume than down volume on a intermediate term trending basis
2011-11-15 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM is also hanging in there
2011-11-15 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now back above its +750 level
2011-11-15 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX volume MCSUM looks identical to its breadth cousin
2011-11-15 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-11-15 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume and breadth are still pretty much in sync here
2011-11-15 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which increases the likelihood of a continuation in the direction of these same MCSUM patterns
2011-11-15 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got it!
2011-11-15 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs now on the OEX volume MCSUM today!
2011-11-15 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the breakout in the breadth MCSUM
2011-11-15 17:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and adding a little more weight to an upside resolution
2011-11-15 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all of these cases
2011-11-15 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for these MCSUM's to break above their resistance levels
2011-11-15 17:41:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's well have to break above their declining tops lines at the same time
2011-11-15 17:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it MUST all work together for this common goal of moving to new highs
2011-11-15 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it is likely to fail in doing so
2011-11-15 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also known as a rally failure
2011-11-15 17:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-11-15 17:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some rally failures are more important than others
2011-11-15 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes we get a "false start"
2011-11-15 17:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we actually get the breakout
2011-11-15 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to tell the difference
2011-11-15 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be up the MCO's to tell us which is which
2011-11-15 17:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by what we see if any test of the short term bottoms above bottoms patterns are tested near term
2011-11-15 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pretty much the same indecision story here with the MID, SML and TM volume MCO's as well
2011-11-15 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...each day that passes, the closer we get to something exciting happening
2011-11-15 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this juncture shouldn't disappoint as far as this same excitement factor
2011-11-15 17:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators - (Hoon - "CVI, STVO, VTO - 1 yr")
2011-11-15 17:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the CVI's bounced off their neutral levels yesterday
2011-11-15 17:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-15 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were at neutral (zero line) yesterday
2011-11-15 17:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when at neutral
2011-11-15 17:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control
2011-11-15 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back and fill during the morning session turned out to allow the bulls the control in the afternoon
2011-11-15 17:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are still a bit on the "overbought" side
2011-11-15 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's as well..the NDX looking better though
2011-11-15 17:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in all cases, though, the VTO continues to suggest a strong uptrend at this time
2011-11-15 17:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (gee...could you imagine the damage the bears could do if we didn't have these current oscillator readings?)
2011-11-15 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next to the TRIN - (Hoon - ARMS Index 1 yr)
2011-11-15 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE Trin at .93
2011-11-15 17:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 (second series of charts on the same page) at .94
2011-11-15 17:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a bit surprising
2011-11-15 17:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still have a couple of 2.00's and 7.00 to work off though
2011-11-15 17:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that might happen tomorrow (losing track of time)
2011-11-15 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .78
2011-11-15 17:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .91
2011-11-15 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-11-15 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .76
2011-11-15 17:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2011-11-15 17:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-15 17:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears "could" push things lower near term
2011-11-15 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2011-11-15 17:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see more than a day's worth of pullback before we find stability again
2011-11-15 17:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much like we've been seeing over the last 3 weeks
2011-11-15 17:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the MCSUM goes
2011-11-15 17:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the harder and harder it is for the bears to push prices in their direction for any length of time
2011-11-15 17:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like having a beach ball in the deep end of a swimming pool and trying to keep it underwater
2011-11-15 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can do so as long as you keep the pressure on
2011-11-15 17:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the deeper you push it lower
2011-11-15 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more displacement occurs
2011-11-15 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just one mistake and the ball will zoom to above the surface again
2011-11-15 17:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-11-15 17:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: were you able to follow along OK Hoon?
2011-11-15 17:54:33 [Message] hkk -> Chat: yes
2011-11-15 17:54:36 [Message] hkk -> Chat: thanks
2011-11-15 17:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure wish we had our copy and paste function back
2011-11-15 17:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great...take some time to look around the DP site...I'm sure you'll be impressed
2011-11-15 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have have any questions you can ask it on Thursday
2011-11-15 17:56:01 [Message] hkk -> Chat: okay
2011-11-15 17:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-11-15 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to call it a day
2011-11-15 17:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days of trading
2011-11-15 17:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2011-11-15 17:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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