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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2014-11-13 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-11-13 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-11-13 16:01:35 [Message] mojave -> Chat: great
2014-11-13 16:01:52 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: great...and you?
2014-11-13 16:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thanks for asking
2014-11-13 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-11-13 16:02:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes one regarding negative divergence  in tech sectors
2014-11-13 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...go
2014-11-13 16:03:52 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: does it have as high a probability at tops?
2014-11-13 16:04:15 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: as the positive ones have at the bottoms
2014-11-13 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see if I understand the question
2014-11-13 16:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does sector divergence have as much importance than market divergence?
2014-11-13 16:05:06 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: MCO divergences with the index price
2014-11-13 16:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll answer the question this way and hopefully it's what your looking for
2014-11-13 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most important divergence, either when the market is rising or falling, comes with the total market
2014-11-13 16:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any sector derivatives will only provide important divergent structures IF the broader market is also showing this same divergence
2014-11-13 16:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-11-13 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll take the Tech sector
2014-11-13 16:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the tech sector is showing bearish (or bullish) divergence
2014-11-13 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the broader market has not provided this same loss of momentum
2014-11-13 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these kind of divergences can then last longer in the sector than what one would expect
2014-11-13 16:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact
2014-11-13 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will generally see several divergent points before this same sector either follows or leads to the opposite direction
2014-11-13 16:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where many traders get hurt
2014-11-13 16:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because they may see...let's say the tech sector in this example..divergence and then assume that a market top or bottom is being created
2014-11-13 16:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until general market conditions provide this same loss of momentum
2014-11-13 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: situations like this are more in the category of asset allocation from one sector (tech) to another
2014-11-13 16:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and "tech" would tend to only move sideways
2014-11-13 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market's general bullish bias
2014-11-13 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or bearish bias...whatever the direction of the thrust
2014-11-13 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?
2014-11-13 16:10:45 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes it does thanks
2014-11-13 16:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great
2014-11-13 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have a follow up please ask
2014-11-13 16:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the only "dumb" question is the one that isn't asked [smile]
2014-11-13 16:11:16 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: will do
2014-11-13 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone else?
2014-11-13 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a bit of follow up to the question
2014-11-13 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since sectors make up the total whole
2014-11-13 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we see sector by sector divergence as we did in mid September
2014-11-13 16:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than this provides greater confidence that when divergence occurs in the broader market
2014-11-13 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes "tradable"
2014-11-13 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why watching the daily is more important than the weekly or monthly time frame
2014-11-13 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the longer time frames will tend to diverge first (by longevity) before the daily
2014-11-13 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times have we seen traders get hurt when looking at the monthly data and seeing divergence in a momentum tool
2014-11-13 16:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the weekly and daily remained without such divergences?
2014-11-13 16:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it's a good question...thanks for asking
2014-11-13 16:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-11-13 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after holding above the mid September lows on Wednesday
2014-11-13 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO finally broke below this level today
2014-11-13 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this now puts a halt to any further upside price action at the current time
2014-11-13 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it a complete engine shutdown
2014-11-13 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the highs in the MCO were the time in which main engines had their shut down
2014-11-13 16:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the thrusters have followed suit
2014-11-13 16:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...that should be the mid OCTOBER lows
2014-11-13 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not September
2014-11-13 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation now is for this MCO to snapback fully to its zero line
2014-11-13 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-11-13 16:18:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right I knew should have said something
2014-11-13 16:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see some sort of technical bounce on Friday to show the importance of this same mid October low as the pattern snaps back to this area
2014-11-13 16:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NP
2014-11-13 16:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to catch myself
2014-11-13 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you see an error...do point it out
2014-11-13 16:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM though
2014-11-13 16:19:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: You know I will [smile]
2014-11-13 16:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it does look like we're going to find some horizontal resistance at the +400 level
2014-11-13 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the buyers
2014-11-13 16:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would like a minimal amount of sag at these levels
2014-11-13 16:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the sellers
2014-11-13 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more hurt than can put on the current positive plurality we currently have
2014-11-13 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier it will become to take back control of the action
2014-11-13 16:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with all this said
2014-11-13 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have a mid range close today
2014-11-13 16:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with yesterday being a down day on the NYA
2014-11-13 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have an up close on Friday
2014-11-13 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would also serve as our just mentioned snapback to what was mid October support before moving to the MCO zero line next week
2014-11-13 16:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-11-13 16:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is also up against its +400 level as well
2014-11-13 16:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking the NYSE breadth MCO components
2014-11-13 16:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they remain in a positive crossover configuration
2014-11-13 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Friday either seeing the 10% "kissing" the 5% Trend with a zero line test in the MCO
2014-11-13 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we'll see a slight bounce and then we'll see if the bullish crossover will hold early next week
2014-11-13 16:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though
2014-11-13 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're pretty much following our updated blueprint on Tuesday of a corrective sequence moving into next week's OPEX period
2014-11-13 16:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note is that we had WWW yesterday
2014-11-13 16:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually plays games with prices the following day
2014-11-13 16:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today was no exception with the Dow opening up 90 points
2014-11-13 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but closing up only 40
2014-11-13 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my guess is that we'll see several mid range bar's today
2014-11-13 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the NASDAQ did
2014-11-13 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that we had a break below the mid October lows today on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-11-13 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though when we look at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-11-13 16:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that yesterdays pop higher in the MCO came when it was needed so that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM could gap above its September highs
2014-11-13 16:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that's out of the way
2014-11-13 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see a pause in the pattern
2014-11-13 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to regroup before going for the more important point of resistance at the July highs
2014-11-13 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now although today's price bar on the NASDAQ shows a positive close
2014-11-13 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bar itself is a "rally failure" bar
2014-11-13 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we closed below the mid point of the range today
2014-11-13 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a close below yesterday's close would had sealed the deal on that
2014-11-13 16:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still wouldn't be surprising at all to see the price pattern move back into the area of previous consolidation near term before attempting to take out today's high point
2014-11-13 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-11-13 16:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we continue to hold above the mid October lows
2014-11-13 16:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that the top 100 stocks that trade on the NASDAQ will probably help in keeping the broader index from seeing any kind of deep retracement during this pause to refresh
2014-11-13 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it does break
2014-11-13 16:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can expect 2-3 days of back and fill
2014-11-13 16:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a small point change on the NDX breadth MCO
2014-11-13 16:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how this episode of "tension on the tape" resolves itself by Monday
2014-11-13 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do note, however, that we are currently challenging the September highs on the NDX breadth MCSUM
2014-11-13 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so indecisive behavior would not be unusual at these levels
2014-11-13 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did we have a mid range close today on the SPX
2014-11-13 16:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also had an outside range day
2014-11-13 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pretty much tells us that we are now in consolidation mode
2014-11-13 16:39:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the SPX breadth MCO showing that today's range actually showed enough sell side trading to break below the mid October low point
2014-11-13 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it a ceiling for now
2014-11-13 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a forecast of a snapback to around the 2020 level attainable
2014-11-13 16:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note too that the SPX breadth MCSUM is now at the +1000 level
2014-11-13 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we have talked about previously
2014-11-13 16:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is as good as place as any to take the time to look around and take inventory of what's been accomplished and see if there's agreement in the way of valuations at these levels
2014-11-13 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the NDX
2014-11-13 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO remains above its mid October lows
2014-11-13 16:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should help in keeping any kind of bearish ambushes to be meek in their attacks
2014-11-13 16:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like yesterday's opening weakness which firmed up for the rest of the day
2014-11-13 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pullbacks should continue to be short and shallow
2014-11-13 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM's are well above the +500 level
2014-11-13 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in several of the index derivatives that make up both the NYSE and NASDAQ
2014-11-13 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the Dow breadth MCO
2014-11-13 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have another small point change tonight
2014-11-13 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the Dow breadth MCSUM continues to "rocket" to higher highs
2014-11-13 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now within 21 data points from the +1250 level
2014-11-13 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further buyer support here on Friday
2014-11-13 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will keep the Dow buoyant, price wise, for much of any short term consolidation that may come about here
2014-11-13 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really can see the strength here when looking at the Dow breadth MCSUM
2014-11-13 16:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the larger the separation of the individual postings
2014-11-13 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: show us how great money has been flowing into this basket of stocks
2014-11-13 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be more of a defensive move by some
2014-11-13 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for whatever reason
2014-11-13 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow seems to be in a
2014-11-13 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "Go Go" phase right now
2014-11-13 16:49:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just the mere mention of such accolades is probably enough for the index to take a hit
2014-11-13 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-11-13 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...we got a solid rally failure bar on the MID today
2014-11-13 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some may call it an exhaustion bar
2014-11-13 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MID breadth MCO breaking below the mid October lows simultaneously
2014-11-13 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rally failure is probably more appropriate
2014-11-13 16:51:14 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: It that last 4 days price bar set up called?
2014-11-13 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also a nasty rally failure bar on the SML today
2014-11-13 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a "failure" is that it didn't succeed in moving up and out of its high level consolidation
2014-11-13 16:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then closing below the previous day's close
2014-11-13 16:52:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK always learning
2014-11-13 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the short term trend of breadth (the MCO) breaking the support level that held the price pattern sequence in a rising formation (the mid October lows)
2014-11-13 16:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2014-11-13 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the bulls who supported the trend were not available to keep things going when the pattern needed them to step up
2014-11-13 16:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all part of the game we call "control"
2014-11-13 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whether one side or the other will "belly up to the bar" and show some backbone
2014-11-13 16:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Elliottician's out there
2014-11-13 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when you look at the daily chart pattern
2014-11-13 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have, as of today, finished the minimal outline of a 5 wave sequence to the upside from the mid October launch
2014-11-13 16:55:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where support will come at the 4th wave of one lesser degree
2014-11-13 16:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, in this case
2014-11-13 16:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the consolidation pattern we see from last week
2014-11-13 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it should all work together
2014-11-13 16:56:22 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: FYI: I will be selling my long position in MID tomorrow and plan on deploying that into tech
2014-11-13 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...if you have profits in the MID
2014-11-13 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this would be the time to take the money off the table
2014-11-13 16:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...Wednesday was
2014-11-13 16:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's OK...you still have time to do so
2014-11-13 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll look at the XLK in a moment
2014-11-13 16:57:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes been in it a while now
2014-11-13 16:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO also broke below the mid October lows today
2014-11-13 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside
2014-11-13 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was rather surprised when I looked at the data on Wednesday and found that all of the MCO's were still above their mid October lows
2014-11-13 16:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking that maybe the buyers were, in fact, going to belly up and save this from being a pause
2014-11-13 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it turned out
2014-11-13 16:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were late to the party
2014-11-13 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by that time, the others who waited went home mid day
2014-11-13 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2014-11-13 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the TM breadth MCSUM
2014-11-13 17:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our focus will be in looking for to see if it can move above the +250 level over the next couple of weeks
2014-11-13 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for with its continued weakness going into this pause sequence, it wouldn't be too surprising now to see the TM breadth MCSUM snapback to its zero line during this pause
2014-11-13 17:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then having the bulls take control back...but this time with a whole lot of vigor
2014-11-13 17:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-11-13 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation of a well deserved rest looks as though had its start today
2014-11-13 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should expect a lot of choppy, rather shallow pullbacks, during this time
2014-11-13 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which may last into Friday of next week
2014-11-13 17:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2014-11-13 17:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like that our expectation of the XLY moving to new all time price highs occurred today
2014-11-13 17:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we look at the XLY breadth MCO
2014-11-13 17:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see the superb strength of late
2014-11-13 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it shows a complex bullish structure in and around the +75 level
2014-11-13 17:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, it remains nicely above its mid October low point
2014-11-13 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLY breadth MCSUM moved up and through its +750 level today
2014-11-13 17:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the high MCO readings
2014-11-13 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll look for continued strength here with this sector
2014-11-13 17:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our next area of potential resistance at the +1000 level on the MCSUM
2014-11-13 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small point change today on the XLP breadth MCO
2014-11-13 17:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it remains just above its mid October hesitation point
2014-11-13 17:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCSUM remains on a full buy mode having just crossed above the +1500 level today
2014-11-13 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where any near term price decay should be swooped up by the buyers and carry this sector to higher price highs
2014-11-13 17:09:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Maybe I should consider XLP instead of Tech
2014-11-13 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or XLY [smile]
2014-11-13 17:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't hurt to spread the wealth
2014-11-13 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's continue on our journey
2014-11-13 17:10:30 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right I will some more good advice
2014-11-13 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE breadth MCO
2014-11-13 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it finally snapped back to its zero line today
2014-11-13 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the price of WTIC moved to 4 year lows
2014-11-13 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: providing divergence now between the energy stocks and the price of the underlying commodity
2014-11-13 17:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a bullish indication that "smart money" is in the process of accumulating these same stocks
2014-11-13 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that any further decay in the index is likely to be shallow from these current price levels
2014-11-13 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth MCO Components
2014-11-13 17:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both are back below their zero line again
2014-11-13 17:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the 10% has now touched its slower moving sister, the 5% Trend
2014-11-13 17:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between having snapped back to the zero line on the MCO
2014-11-13 17:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this snapback test between the MCO components
2014-11-13 17:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a technical bounce in these issues as soon as Friday
2014-11-13 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will part of the larger "plan" in building the foundation that will be necessary to create a new advancing price trend in the index itself
2014-11-13 17:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2014-11-13 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we won't see too much upside action until the XLE breadth MCSUM itself is able to move back above the -500 level
2014-11-13 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's still time to move into this sector
2014-11-13 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just continue to watch things as they evolve
2014-11-13 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does look like that much of the downside in the index is behind us
2014-11-13 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected it was a week or so ago
2014-11-13 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2014-11-13 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we put ruler to monitor here
2014-11-13 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the pattern of the MCSUM did break above its declining tops line last Friday with that extended gap higher
2014-11-13 17:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing that trendlines ARE important in this and all facets of charting
2014-11-13 17:17:26 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes, another good cal
2014-11-13 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any close above $88, with expanding volume, would be a signal that a rally up to the $93 level is underway
2014-11-13 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...the market does have this uncanny ability to telegraph its intentions, doesn't it?
2014-11-13 17:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO also pulled back today
2014-11-13 17:19:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes it does but you have to know what you're looking at
2014-11-13 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it still remains above its mid October lows
2014-11-13 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comes with practice Mike
2014-11-13 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLF breadth MCSUM continues to show an astounding amount of capital moving into this group of issues with today's reading of +1608
2014-11-13 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect further strength from here until our next area of natural resistance at around the +1750 level
2014-11-13 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any price decay finding support at the $23.75 level
2014-11-13 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLV breadth MCO today
2014-11-13 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLV breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +1000 level
2014-11-13 17:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any follow through on Friday will then allow this indicator to move up to the +1250 level
2014-11-13 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the highs seen last March
2014-11-13 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2014-11-13 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are seeing some momentum divergence between the MCO and the XLV index
2014-11-13 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this index will echo much of any digestion period we're likely to see from the major market indices over the next week
2014-11-13 17:23:32 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Still looking good for $25 a share
2014-11-13 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-11-13 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the XLF, right?
2014-11-13 17:24:15 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right
2014-11-13 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLI index
2014-11-13 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we had the same reversal bar today as we did on the MID
2014-11-13 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we haven't seen the XLI breadth MCO move below its mid October lows
2014-11-13 17:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-11-13 17:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of calling this a "rally failure"
2014-11-13 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be called a "false start"
2014-11-13 17:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as one would see in a track event
2014-11-13 17:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there is still a lot of support
2014-11-13 17:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the index got a little ahead of itself
2014-11-13 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now got to go back to the starting line
2014-11-13 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the high level consolidation pattern we see on the chart
2014-11-13 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should also help the Dow Industrials and Transports from seeing much in the way of selling waves
2014-11-13 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both will tend to consolidate...with a bullish bias
2014-11-13 17:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of the mid October lows though in the XLI breadth MCO
2014-11-13 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can see a close below this same consolidation area
2014-11-13 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money MUST lead a price event
2014-11-13 17:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't
2014-11-13 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you have a failure to succeed
2014-11-13 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO continues to hold on to its bullish bias
2014-11-13 17:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in its effort to move to higher MCO levels
2014-11-13 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have another top beneath a top working here
2014-11-13 17:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could be dangerous for the bulls
2014-11-13 17:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at the very least
2014-11-13 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a swift move to the MCO zero line is likely to be the direct result of such losses in momentum
2014-11-13 17:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when prices move higher in spite of this same divergence
2014-11-13 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2014-11-13 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see prices struggle in this effort
2014-11-13 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like trying to move forward while one leg is caught in quicksand
2014-11-13 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the big test there though will come in a day or two when the XLB breadth MCSUM reaches its longer term declining tops line
2014-11-13 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside
2014-11-13 17:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold has done all it's probably going to do on this snapback
2014-11-13 17:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at a chart
2014-11-13 17:32:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: triangle on the daily
2014-11-13 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 4
2014-11-13 17:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would you look at that?!!?
2014-11-13 17:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just measured the downside target from the triangle
2014-11-13 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's $40
2014-11-13 17:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break would occur at $1140
2014-11-13 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $1140 - $40 = our downside target of $1100
2014-11-13 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2014-11-13 17:34:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: that's how it done? yes amazing
2014-11-13 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you take the furthest distance between the high and low of the triangle
2014-11-13 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then extend it from the base of the triangle in the direction of the break
2014-11-13 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm probably off as I''m eyeballing it
2014-11-13 17:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's close enough for rock n roll
2014-11-13 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLK
2014-11-13 17:35:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: can not wait!
2014-11-13 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it closed nicely higher
2014-11-13 17:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too had a mid range close
2014-11-13 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLK breadth MCO closing lower today
2014-11-13 17:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are pretty good that we'll have a lower close on Friday
2014-11-13 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO itself
2014-11-13 17:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as it remains above the mid October lows
2014-11-13 17:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will continue to move in the direction of least resistance
2014-11-13 17:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2014-11-13 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCSUM is at +1244
2014-11-13 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we could see a break of the MCO low sooner than later IF the +1250 plateau does provide that extra thumb on the analytical scale
2014-11-13 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after breaking below the zero line on Wednesday
2014-11-13 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw good downside follow through on the XLU breadth MCO today
2014-11-13 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this provided the incentive for the price action of the XLU to break below its consolidation zone
2014-11-13 17:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also how this reversal and break in the MCO coincided exactly with the XLU breadth MCSUM topping out at the +1750 level
2014-11-13 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing once again how these areas of natural MCSUM resistance and support help in our judging of when we could see money move from one direction to the other
2014-11-13 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-11-13 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Trend of the XLU now at its zero line
2014-11-13 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see an technical bounce here in this index as soon as Friday
2014-11-13 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an outside chance of seeing a snapback in prices toward the old highs in the XLU at the $44 level
2014-11-13 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-11-13 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see strength in the consumer stocks
2014-11-13 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials
2014-11-13 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the industrial sectors
2014-11-13 17:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the technology area remains one of the sector leaders in this larger sequence
2014-11-13 17:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together with the amplitude in which prices have rallied so far in the last 3 weeks
2014-11-13 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a well deserved rest continues to be the best forecast over the next week or so
2014-11-13 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the underlying tone and character of exchanges continuing to suggest that December and January should see good gains after this rest period
2014-11-13 17:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-11-13 17:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's remain "pumped"
2014-11-13 17:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the buy side remains the stronger side at this time
2014-11-13 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are now working off their "overbought" excesses from last week
2014-11-13 17:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and doing it in a way that suggests rotation than it would be all out selling
2014-11-13 17:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are still "overbought"
2014-11-13 17:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're not likely to see rallies that will stick until we can get the VTO's to slack off a bit first
2014-11-13 17:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's hard to move forward when the engine is overheating
2014-11-13 17:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.15
2014-11-13 17:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2014-11-13 17:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correcting on the fly...looking good
2014-11-13 17:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .57
2014-11-13 17:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering there
2014-11-13 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it went away
2014-11-13 17:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must had been multiple program trades I would assume
2014-11-13 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 back near "overbought" at .81
2014-11-13 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that needs to relax a bit
2014-11-13 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .71
2014-11-13 17:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2014-11-13 17:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's not much more to add since Tuesday
2014-11-13 17:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market appears to be moving into a point of indecision
2014-11-13 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like a period of digestion
2014-11-13 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever the moniker
2014-11-13 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call it a high level consolidation
2014-11-13 17:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will either take the form of a trading range or a triangle
2014-11-13 17:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some price structures might have a range...others a triangle
2014-11-13 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to know at this point
2014-11-13 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the patterns will develop over the next couple of trading days
2014-11-13 17:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the prelim on the BETS
2014-11-13 17:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AMEX data looks sick
2014-11-13 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to be careful there
2014-11-13 17:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAAD found strong resistance at its 1% Trend (200 day EMA)
2014-11-13 17:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -15
2014-11-13 17:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Canadian charts look miserable as well
2014-11-13 17:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's not oil related
2014-11-13 17:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be the metals there
2014-11-13 17:53:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and going to be tough to get the BETS to move above the +20 level as long as these commodity based indexes remain weak
2014-11-13 17:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so longer term investors should continue to take their clues from the weekly BETS numbers
2014-11-13 17:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now, it remains neutral, cash
2014-11-13 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-11-13 17:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discipline...discipline...discipline
2014-11-13 17:55:34 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: where spooky on vacation?
2014-11-13 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be...maybe on his island that he bought with all the money he's made over the years [smile]
2014-11-13 17:56:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: LOL
2014-11-13 17:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-11-13 17:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-11-13 17:56:40 [Message] mojave -> Chat: tks!
2014-11-13 17:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a super weekend
2014-11-13 17:56:49 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you again Fib....have a great weekend
2014-11-13 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how thing's are going on Tuesday
2014-11-13 17:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-11-13 17:57:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night everyone

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