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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2013-11-13 16:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-11-13 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-11-13 16:00:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Super, and you?
2013-11-13 16:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going into the home stretch... [smile]
2013-11-13 16:01:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice!
2013-11-13 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-11-13 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the bulls came in again when they needed to
2013-11-13 16:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: poor bears
2013-11-13 16:03:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Closed at another new high-sweet!
2013-11-13 16:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it must be frustrating as heck to keep getting kneed in the groin [frown]
2013-11-13 16:03:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: BET
2013-11-13 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reminds me of an old salmon commercial from Canada in the early 2000's
2013-11-13 16:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the fishermen are getting fresh salmon from the same area as the bears
2013-11-13 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one of the bears decides to fight for their right to eat
2013-11-13 16:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the human points in the air that an eagle is above them the bear looks up
2013-11-13 16:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the human kicks in the groin and takes the fish
2013-11-13 16:05:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2013-11-13 16:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the funniest commercials of all time
2013-11-13 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and get started
2013-11-13 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...how nice is this?
2013-11-13 16:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply higher today
2013-11-13 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the process took out both the blip resistance areas we spoke about on Tuesday and settled above the zero line
2013-11-13 16:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a +3 reading
2013-11-13 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what breadth was today
2013-11-13 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little over 2:1 for the NYAD line
2013-11-13 16:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this break of resistance then has shut down any further decline in the current price pattern
2013-11-13 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the buyers can build on this in the next couple of days and get the MCO back above the +25 level
2013-11-13 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we should see the NYA breakout to new highs on its way to challenging the all time highs at 10,312
2013-11-13 16:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2013-11-13 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also got a crossover buy signal today
2013-11-13 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a general buy signal in effect for the CO's
2013-11-13 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2013-11-13 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if there any doubt at all that these 250 multiple levels have any importance
2013-11-13 16:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another example of their power
2013-11-13 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are finding support around the +500 level and turned up today to settle at +498
2013-11-13 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the buyers now want to see is a quick gap higher from these levels
2013-11-13 16:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this can be accomplished if we move above the +25 level
2013-11-13 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see a better representation of a slightly 2:1 positive plurality today in the NYAD line
2013-11-13 16:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are still below both the blip resistance area and the zero line where we have reaction spike snapback
2013-11-13 16:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as the CO got us all excited
2013-11-13 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Composite brings us back to Earth
2013-11-13 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and shows that that the bulls had a good day today
2013-11-13 16:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now they need to add on to the momentum that was created
2013-11-13 16:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the CO MCO move is only likely to be an obligatory snapback to the zero line...and nothing more than that
2013-11-13 16:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we can say that snapback to the zero line is now complete
2013-11-13 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it settled with a +2 reading
2013-11-13 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this full zero line snapback
2013-11-13 16:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has now put a "full stop" on the declining NASDAQ breadth MCSUM right where it needed to...at horizontal support
2013-11-13 16:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like magic, huh?
2013-11-13 16:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the NASDAQ Composite Index closed at new recovery price highs today
2013-11-13 16:17:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: NAZ was rippin!
2013-11-13 16:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes it extra important we see a continuation of today's streak higher in money flow
2013-11-13 16:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that we can take out the small hesitation points seen just below the +25 level
2013-11-13 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new recovery price highs today on the NDX index
2013-11-13 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX breadth MCO continued to show strength as it now challenges the reaction highs of late October
2013-11-13 16:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO components
2013-11-13 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also generated a crossover buy signal here today
2013-11-13 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2013-11-13 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also turned up today in what we still can consider an indecision pattern
2013-11-13 16:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our short term target now of the +750 level
2013-11-13 16:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll see how things are going
2013-11-13 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs close in the cash SPX
2013-11-13 16:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was confirmed by the SPX breadth MCO taking out 3 levels of pattern resistance
2013-11-13 16:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now throws control back to the bullish camp
2013-11-13 16:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2013-11-13 16:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we settled today at the +25 level right where the declining tops line from the October tops intersects
2013-11-13 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if breaking above 3 levels of resistance is good enough for a 1 percent move
2013-11-13 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that breaking above this same declining tops line will also give the index something to "pop off" about
2013-11-13 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy on the components here as well
2013-11-13 16:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bigger challenge is to see if we break above the highs recently made in the SPX breadth MCSUM
2013-11-13 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which can be done easily if....
2013-11-13 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we break above the declining tops line just mentioned in the MCO
2013-11-13 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2013-11-13 16:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things must work together to achieve a common goal
2013-11-13 16:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the goal now being
2013-11-13 16:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to re-initiate the ongoing uptrend
2013-11-13 16:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new recovery high close on the OEX
2013-11-13 16:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was confirmed by the OEX breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not as much strength though as the 500
2013-11-13 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was enough to break above 3 levels of resistance as well
2013-11-13 16:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a lot of work for one day
2013-11-13 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close on the Dow
2013-11-13 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it wasn't quite confirmed by the Dow breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2013-11-13 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's another good example on how important these complex structures are when they develop
2013-11-13 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and in case no one heard
2013-11-13 16:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember how we always talked about that it was going to take fresh buying to move the market higher?
2013-11-13 16:31:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2013-11-13 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that this is usually on the back of a news event when you get to junctures like the one we just had?
2013-11-13 16:31:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2013-11-13 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just reading a news report
2013-11-13 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Yellen will be telling Congress that QE may be extended
2013-11-13 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because....
2013-11-13 16:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED needs to "do more to support the economy"
2013-11-13 16:32:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the "anti taper" LOL
2013-11-13 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still have no idea why everybody was thinking that Yellen would be any "different" than Ben
2013-11-13 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all you have to do is look at her record, and she is far more accomodative than almost everyone on the board
2013-11-13 16:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be the signal that the market was waiting for
2013-11-13 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we see good follow through tomorrow
2013-11-13 16:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then take us through the end of the year
2013-11-13 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least to 1825 [smile]
2013-11-13 16:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that today's push in the Dow breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: provided a gap above the +500 level
2013-11-13 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one more good day there and we'll be looking at the +750 level next
2013-11-13 16:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: big power move higher today in the MID breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was the expectation if the pattern was going to be able to break above both the zero line and the spike reaction highs
2013-11-13 16:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the MID
2013-11-13 16:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy generated as well
2013-11-13 16:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again
2013-11-13 16:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look how the MID breadth MCSUM is finding natural support at the +750 level
2013-11-13 16:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today at +767
2013-11-13 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good power move as well in the SML breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we remember that this MCO was still deeply under the zero line on Tuesday
2013-11-13 16:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this bounce back above the zero line also came as the SML breadth MCSUM was at trendline support as well
2013-11-13 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why this happens as it does really is fascinating to anyone who has done this kind of work for a year or for 40
2013-11-13 16:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just amazing how a simple line can provide support (or resistance) as it does
2013-11-13 16:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also generated a crossover buy signal as well on the SML breadth MCO components
2013-11-13 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other ugly sister today is the TM breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which like its big sister, the NYSE composite breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still has some work to do to overcome some important resistance levels
2013-11-13 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less we remain on a crossover sell signal on the TM MCO breadth components
2013-11-13 16:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Wilshire 5000 though closed at new all time highs today regardless
2013-11-13 16:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-11-13 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls bellied up again just like they did on Friday
2013-11-13 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this time we have several indices that moved to a buy signal today
2013-11-13 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it will be important to get the broader market to agree with these same index derivatives
2013-11-13 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that way we can actually continue to add on to today's record and recovery highs without fear a blow off
2013-11-13 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2013-11-13 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a new all time high close in the XLY index
2013-11-13 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was confirmed by the XLY breadth MCO moving to higher highs
2013-11-13 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: supporting another great example of a pattern that has character behind it
2013-11-13 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a spike low at just below the -25 level
2013-11-13 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback back above the zero line
2013-11-13 16:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback to the zero line
2013-11-13 16:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a bounce higher that takes out the reaction highs before the previous decline actually set in
2013-11-13 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also broke the declining tops line controlling the MCO pattern in this effort
2013-11-13 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we usually see when we see these breaks above previous turning points
2013-11-13 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM was able to move to new highs of its own
2013-11-13 16:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can go back to buying on pullbacks in this basket of issues
2013-11-13 16:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as any downside targets were cancelled today on the strength above the early November spike
2013-11-13 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is also showing its variation of a complex bullish structure above its zero line
2013-11-13 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the longer it can maintain being above the zero line
2013-11-13 16:47:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stronger the underlying strength of the trend itself
2013-11-13 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the XLP breadth MCSUM now leading prices to the upside
2013-11-13 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it cleared the +750 level today
2013-11-13 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a buy there
2013-11-13 16:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the zero line now nearly complete for the XLE breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it appears, both by MCO and price pattern, to be a day behind to the broader market
2013-11-13 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this is actually the case
2013-11-13 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see new all time highs in this index as soon as tomorrow
2013-11-13 16:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLE breadth MCO moving back above its zero line
2013-11-13 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above the important early November spike point
2013-11-13 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO is giving a nice example of what a complex BEARISH structure might look like
2013-11-13 16:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've continued to chop around between the zero line and the -50 level now for the past 3 weeks
2013-11-13 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this has to do with how the interest rate sensitive A/D lines are performing
2013-11-13 16:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though one would think that it would be more bullish than bearish for the financials if interest rates moved HIGHER than moving back lower
2013-11-13 16:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on many different levels
2013-11-13 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2013-11-13 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM continues to suggest that the selling isn't that worrisome by its congested decline
2013-11-13 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for those who are long this sector
2013-11-13 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a stop at just below last Thursday's intraday lows would be the prudent play for now
2013-11-13 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the XLV index
2013-11-13 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while being confirmed by the XLV breadth MCO and the MCSUM's abrupt moves higher today
2013-11-13 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the XLI index
2013-11-13 16:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLI breadth MCO continued to be firm here
2013-11-13 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: noting again how the XLI breadth MCSUM was able to find pattern support at the +1250 level
2013-11-13 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any new highs from here on the MCSUM
2013-11-13 16:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will allow prices to continue to move to higher highs without the direct push of the MCO
2013-11-13 16:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2013-11-13 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because with the space shuttle so high above the Earth
2013-11-13 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it only takes short bursts of fuel to keep the vehicle not only at current (price) altitudes
2013-11-13 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also will push us to even higher altitudes without too much effort
2013-11-13 16:57:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't let a low MCO here fool you into thinking that this would somehow a bearish development
2013-11-13 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2013-11-13 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the deeper the MCSUM rises or falls
2013-11-13 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the harder it is to maintain these same extremes
2013-11-13 16:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices are "lubricated" enough to continue in this preferred direction based on the underlying flow in which money is moving
2013-11-13 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good day as well for the XLB breadth MCO
2013-11-13 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't quite enough to break above some heavy horizontal resistance
2013-11-13 17:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until this is broken
2013-11-13 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM will continue to stay on the south side of the +750 level
2013-11-13 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind though
2013-11-13 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with Yellen's comments coming after the spot market in gold closed today
2013-11-13 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be enough to get the gold bugs going on the expectation of future excesses in monetary stimulus
2013-11-13 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-11-13 17:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check gold futures - one sec
2013-11-13 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up $15
2013-11-13 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a pretty good bet that the XLB will probably make an attempt to break to the upside on Thursday
2013-11-13 17:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something to watch
2013-11-13 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how the PM stocks think about this too
2013-11-13 17:02:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what is that little pattern on the summation here?
2013-11-13 17:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the XLB?
2013-11-13 17:03:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, is it compressing?
2013-11-13 17:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2013-11-13 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's right under natural resistance
2013-11-13 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's moving sideways
2013-11-13 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if there's a term for it
2013-11-13 17:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it happens rarely
2013-11-13 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in essence it's an indecision pattern
2013-11-13 17:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the kicker here
2013-11-13 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that since we are already "overbought" here
2013-11-13 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it suggests that there is almost non existent selling going on here
2013-11-13 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, there is enough buying to keep the pattern from decaying overall
2013-11-13 17:04:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, so a breakout of that would be a fair move?
2013-11-13 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be
2013-11-13 17:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with most resolutions are in indecision patterns
2013-11-13 17:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they tend to be sharp and short
2013-11-13 17:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2013-11-13 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've been commented that the market was "waiting for something" now for over a week
2013-11-13 17:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could say that "something" was the woman behind the curtain making a statement
2013-11-13 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the Wizard in the Wizard of Oz [smile]
2013-11-13 17:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2013-11-13 17:06:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice...
2013-11-13 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this talk of "tapering" was manufactured by the media
2013-11-13 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a lot of overpaid wall street analysts got sucked into the model
2013-11-13 17:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the very beginning
2013-11-13 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED told all of us 3 years ago what would likely change their policy from that of QE stimulus to that of tightening
2013-11-13 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: primarily of an unemployment rate of under 7%
2013-11-13 17:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing that they made clear was...
2013-11-13 17:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they didn't think that a change a policy would happen until the 1st quarter of 2014
2013-11-13 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with Ben
2013-11-13 17:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a track record
2013-11-13 17:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that when he says he's going to do something
2013-11-13 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he's going to do it
2013-11-13 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what the markets say
2013-11-13 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or analysts
2013-11-13 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the media
2013-11-13 17:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...
2013-11-13 17:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that many were losing their shirts on shorting debt
2013-11-13 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and never seeing any results
2013-11-13 17:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so tapering was "invented"
2013-11-13 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2013-11-13 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Yellen pretty much a lock in being the new Fed Chief
2013-11-13 17:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my prediction
2013-11-13 17:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you haven't seen anything yet as it would concern excesses in monetary output
2013-11-13 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: she is VERY liberal
2013-11-13 17:11:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think the analysts are slow to realize market focus is in transition here, as well
2013-11-13 17:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...very much so
2013-11-13 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will only recognize this monetary policy tightens
2013-11-13 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL prices will go higher
2013-11-13 17:11:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: mums the word LOL
2013-11-13 17:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2013-11-13 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Fed began raising rates from the lows of 2002 in 2003
2013-11-13 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it took another 2 1/2 years of rally in the equities before it "made a difference"
2013-11-13 17:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we went from 2% to 6%
2013-11-13 17:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right?
2013-11-13 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to double check- one sec
2013-11-13 17:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it went from 1% to 5 1/2% on the 1 year T-Bill
2013-11-13 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from 2003 to 2006
2013-11-13 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the SPX went from 750 to 1500
2013-11-13 17:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so rising rates are not likely to have any real effect on equities for quite a while
2013-11-13 17:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though many who continue to fight the trend have recently used this raise in rates as another reason why the market can't move any higher
2013-11-13 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it can
2013-11-13 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will
2013-11-13 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history says so
2013-11-13 17:16:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: basically, they won't raise rates till earnings are rising-works for me
2013-11-13 17:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the problem
2013-11-13 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's talk honestly here
2013-11-13 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forgetting the idea that the FED will have to continue to keep rates low until there is marked improvement in the economy to where inflation can begin have an economic effect on EARNINGS
2013-11-13 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not on whether you or I can afford the things we want
2013-11-13 17:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the FED is going to continue to use the jobs data as their proxy of knowing when the economy is humming along or not
2013-11-13 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they might want to consider to have the Labor dept change the way this data is collected
2013-11-13 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of ACA
2013-11-13 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many employers are not going to hire, and have not hired, full time employees
2013-11-13 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is what is counted
2013-11-13 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the part timers
2013-11-13 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which there are more now than anytime I can think of
2013-11-13 17:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to consider
2013-11-13 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the home based and internet related businesses
2013-11-13 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that are also not counted
2013-11-13 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the data still has its basis on brick and mortar companies
2013-11-13 17:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence
2013-11-13 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the data is flawed as it doesn't fully represent today's "economic activity"
2013-11-13 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as long as they continue to use the jobs numbers as their main basis
2013-11-13 17:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're going to keep the spigot on
2013-11-13 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least that's the theory
2013-11-13 17:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of which isn't really getting around to the talking heads
2013-11-13 17:22:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good points
2013-11-13 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will tell you this
2013-11-13 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price of everything will be going up next year
2013-11-13 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're already looking at 5-10% increases in our product line for next year
2013-11-13 17:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here is
2013-11-13 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that much of what was manufactured domestically isn't anymore
2013-11-13 17:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this costs us to bring in this materials from across the border or overseas
2013-11-13 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if I have to ship something
2013-11-13 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: freight isn't getting any cheaper
2013-11-13 17:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-11-13 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I should hear from FED EX and UPS on next years price increases in the next two weeks
2013-11-13 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll share them when I know
2013-11-13 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if it's consistent
2013-11-13 17:24:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: was going to mention-I bought gas for 2.86 two days ago [smile]
2013-11-13 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be around 5-7%
2013-11-13 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2013-11-13 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price of gas here is also moving lower
2013-11-13 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here in Sacramento
2013-11-13 17:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that the station across the street from me is about the lowest in California
2013-11-13 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was at 3.26 for 87 this morning
2013-11-13 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-11-13 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is nice to see
2013-11-13 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it helps us save a bit
2013-11-13 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but fuel is a supply and demand commodity
2013-11-13 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would only move down in prices if....
2013-11-13 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't as much demand as before
2013-11-13 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2013-11-13 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then, yes, the economy is dragging
2013-11-13 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said yesterday
2013-11-13 17:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business here feel off the proverbial cliff last month
2013-11-13 17:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although 2014 is rapidly approaching
2013-11-13 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't see any change in policy for at least another year
2013-11-13 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you check the Fed Funds rate
2013-11-13 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains at less than one tenth of 1%
2013-11-13 17:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in essence...it's at ZERO
2013-11-13 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in all the years that I've been doing this
2013-11-13 17:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Fed Funds rate has led the actual decision making policy of the FED by about 3-4 months
2013-11-13 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you can only shake your heads at those who keep mentioning this tapering crap
2013-11-13 17:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all a distraction
2013-11-13 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to keep the majority from riding the trend
2013-11-13 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..onward
2013-11-13 17:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: power move higher in the XLK breadth MCO
2013-11-13 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the the XLK closed at new recovery highs
2013-11-13 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the time is right for tech sector
2013-11-13 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if she leads
2013-11-13 17:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and - ah oh...we might have a problem here with the XLU
2013-11-13 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLU breadth MCO is back below its zero line
2013-11-13 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2013-11-13 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLU 1 year price chart
2013-11-13 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be working with a second top here at the 39 level
2013-11-13 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you pull back a bit
2013-11-13 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also be a "Sign of the Bear" pattern developing
2013-11-13 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know or remember
2013-11-13 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SOB kicks off with a sharp decline from a pattern high
2013-11-13 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if finds support at about the 50% retracement level of the previous advance
2013-11-13 17:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we rally once to about 50% of the decline
2013-11-13 17:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fail
2013-11-13 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move up again and double top
2013-11-13 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we go for the trigger
2013-11-13 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more information on this pattern can be found in the "technically Speaking" section of the TW message board
2013-11-13 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-11-13 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have several sectors continuing to lead higher again
2013-11-13 17:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a couple of others looking over their shoulder for help
2013-11-13 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...pretty much what one would expect after the first day of attempting to break out of an indecision pattern
2013-11-13 17:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where
2013-11-13 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2013-11-13 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers have to show some good follow through to make it "go"
2013-11-13 17:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are high...but not frothy
2013-11-13 17:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SVTO's found support at around their zero lines and bounced higher
2013-11-13 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are still in the process of pulling back
2013-11-13 17:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .53
2013-11-13 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering
2013-11-13 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still neutral at .90
2013-11-13 17:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .43
2013-11-13 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering there too
2013-11-13 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2013-11-13 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember here that the NASDAQ Open 10 can move to below .70 before one could call it "overbought"
2013-11-13 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .44
2013-11-13 17:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .84
2013-11-13 17:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-11-13 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the bears are running out of time
2013-11-13 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...in some cases
2013-11-13 17:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have run out of time
2013-11-13 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they didn't show any kind of follow through from last Thursday's ambush
2013-11-13 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now it's up to the bulls to build on what they were able to create today
2013-11-13 17:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if they can do this
2013-11-13 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then, as was our expectation at the end of October
2013-11-13 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the current rally will probably continue higher into the end of the month
2013-11-13 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do believe up until the Thanksgiving period
2013-11-13 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2013-11-13 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do continue to make higher MCO highs now
2013-11-13 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can get the NYSE Composite and TM breadth MCO's to move above their resistance zones
2013-11-13 17:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then that would clear the way for what would probably be called our "Santa Claus" rally into the end of the year
2013-11-13 17:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully we'll have a beat on this tomorrow so that we'll have a good blueprint to work with until our next session at the end of the month
2013-11-13 17:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-11-13 17:43:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2013-11-13 17:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...if Yellen keeps "Yelling" then we won't have too much to worry about! [smile]
2013-11-13 17:44:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2013-11-13 17:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure that someone will take the old "jelling" commercials and find a way to update it with Yellen
2013-11-13 17:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Yellen
2013-11-13 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-11-13 17:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm gong to take off
2013-11-13 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more chat tomorrow
2013-11-13 17:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then I'm also going to rest a bit!
2013-11-13 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a great evening
2013-11-13 17:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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