All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,491
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-11-13 19:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-11-13 19:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-11-13 19:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any whiplashes out there?
2008-11-13 19:00:42 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Just one question: was today a key reversal on SPX?
2008-11-13 19:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmmm...
2008-11-13 19:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: haven't checked
2008-11-13 19:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the volume was good...not exceptional
2008-11-13 19:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was made on a life of contract low
2008-11-13 19:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about this?
2008-11-13 19:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how was open interest today - did it expand or contract??
2008-11-13 19:02:24 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: what does open interest have to do with key reversal? Open interest on futures comes out next day
2008-11-13 19:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then you'll have to wait
2008-11-13 19:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because open interest is "key" to the identification of the bar
2008-11-13 19:03:04 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: what about stocks?
2008-11-13 19:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...it's a futures related term
2008-11-13 19:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I took a quick look before coming in, and the majority of sectors and index' are still on sell signals
2008-11-13 19:03:48 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: can you post a link where I can read the definition?
2008-11-13 19:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem with the current volatility is that it's hard to catch a bottom when you're down 4% at lunch time and then up 6% at the close
2008-11-13 19:04:13 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: NYTV today was 1993...one of 24 days in 2008 that NYTV was 2000 level or above
2008-11-13 19:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my definition of a key reversal Dennis?
2008-11-13 19:04:46 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: yup
2008-11-13 19:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one moment
2008-11-13 19:05:04 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: most of those higher NYTV levels were on price declines
2008-11-13 19:05:22 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: google "volume and open interest analysis"
2008-11-13 19:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would suggest reading the entire tutorial - the "key reversal" is mentioned towards the end - http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=1664477
2008-11-13 19:05:45 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: today felt like a key reversal, so I wanted to check if it qualifies.
2008-11-13 19:05:53 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: thanks
2008-11-13 19:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: felt?
2008-11-13 19:06:02 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: yep
2008-11-13 19:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or someone taking a hard stand on price valuation
2008-11-13 19:06:18 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I am not a system trader. Neither is anyone in this room
2008-11-13 19:06:35 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: NYA and SPX price now reside almost precisely at the 8day ema
2008-11-13 19:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just found it peculiar on where we reversed today and hard we reversed
2008-11-13 19:07:17 [Message] lew -> Main Room: trendline of the 2002 lows
2008-11-13 19:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the technical side of things, the CVI was highly "oversold" yesterday
2008-11-13 19:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the STVO's were "oversold"
2008-11-13 19:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I was watching the 5 minute action
2008-11-13 19:07:55 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: wasn't 'everybody' looking for the retest of es 834, then 825?
2008-11-13 19:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where we fell off a cliff at around 13:00
2008-11-13 19:08:09 [Message] gman -> Main Room: hiker, what is NYTV?
2008-11-13 19:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the Dow falling 200 points in 10 minutes
2008-11-13 19:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and meanwhile, the Hist MACD was building divergence
2008-11-13 19:08:54 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: total volume as defined at stockcharts.com for the NYSE...a chart is now posted in the top thread at HH if you give me minute
2008-11-13 19:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I turned to my wife and said..."if there's going to be a reversal, NOW would be the time"
2008-11-13 19:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the next thing I know, the market was even (which was about 30 minutes later)
2008-11-13 19:09:33 [Message] gman -> Main Room: thanks
2008-11-13 19:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks hiker
2008-11-13 19:09:49 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I bought the bottom, shorted the close
2008-11-13 19:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, it was a nice reversal today and, more than likely, pretty much destroyed any November index "crash" put positions in the process
2008-11-13 19:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the charts before coming in, all of the sectors mentioned in my "Caution" post of yesterday are still on sell signals
2008-11-13 19:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with only 2 moving back above their 20 day EMA
2008-11-13 19:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reversal was broad based, but then again, and without looking at this point, we were due for a snapback to many MCO zero lines yesterday, and that probably happened today
2008-11-13 19:12:14 [Message] lew -> Main Room: it did, almost to the penny
2008-11-13 19:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not only was the reversal breath taking price wise, but I don't think I have ever seen such a large plurality flip flop as we had today in breadth
2008-11-13 19:12:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: prior to the reversal, we had 90% declining issues, and we closed with a 73% advancing stocks
2008-11-13 19:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just amazing
2008-11-13 19:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if you're a day trader, breath taking
2008-11-13 19:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...key reversal or not, it was a "Hail Mary" day for the bulls who needed to "belly up with both barrels" to save the day
2008-11-13 19:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and did...so far
2008-11-13 19:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...any other questions or comments before we see how the internals look??
2008-11-13 19:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll tell you one thing
2008-11-13 19:15:33 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I think it was a 4 up of minor 5 down
2008-11-13 19:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and please don't tell me yet...
2008-11-13 19:15:48 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: did hedge fund redemption play into short covering today?
2008-11-13 19:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if the TRIN is anywhere above .50, I would be VERY careful in believing that a bottom might be behind us
2008-11-13 19:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be Dan
2008-11-13 19:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be the PPT too!
2008-11-13 19:16:34 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: GS testing and holding 62 horizontal, below which I only noticed one weekly close on the ten year chart except at the beginning...may have provided a clue...XBD near the 2003 low also held
2008-11-13 19:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had so many sectors digging to lower lows today
2008-11-13 19:17:09 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: I posted this info real-time in 4 locations with the ten year chart
2008-11-13 19:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it was the way we reversed that was "stinky" - but...it is what it was
2008-11-13 19:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I saw it Hiker
2008-11-13 19:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...with no further ado...let's take a look around
2008-11-13 19:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now snapped back to its zero line today which was the technical expectation we were looking for to happen on Wednesday (1 day late)
2008-11-13 19:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components, and here we see we have a small positive cross over, but both components still remain below their zero line
2008-11-13 19:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term for the bulls, their primary objective is to see if they can take out the small blip structure that was produced earlier this week
2008-11-13 19:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if they are able to do this, this will allow the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to break above its ledge resistance area
2008-11-13 19:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we would also like to see the components also take out this same blip resistance area as well
2008-11-13 19:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, fortunately or not, the speed in which we reversed today still needs a day or so of action to decide if this reversal bar is one of lesser or greater importance to the intermediate term price action
2008-11-13 19:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know what today looked like?
2008-11-13 19:23:32 [Message] hpm123 -> Main Room: ?
2008-11-13 19:23:40 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: nascar race
2008-11-13 19:23:48 [Message] slatedrake -> Main Room: broadway play
2008-11-13 19:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the speed of the reversal was very reminiscent to the kind of action we used to see in the currency markets back in the 1980's when we had FED intervention - buying or selling of the dollar
2008-11-13 19:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's important in this idea is this it doesn't last very long, and the prevailing trend usually just picks up speed once this passes
2008-11-13 19:24:57 [Message] lew -> Main Room: so true
2008-11-13 19:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for the bulls here, it is imperative now that we get big follow through days
2008-11-13 19:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because if we don't, and something like the FED helping the markets along doesn't show any takers, things can get real nasty in a hurry
2008-11-13 19:26:07 [Message] lew -> Main Room: retail sales numbers tomorrow morning
2008-11-13 19:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...I'm not saying this reversal was initiated by the FED only that it looked and felt like the same kind of action
2008-11-13 19:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: retail sales are going to be horrible - count on it
2008-11-13 19:26:39 [Message] lew -> Main Room: bet
2008-11-13 19:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I know what's going on out there
2008-11-13 19:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: heck...most of the retailers are now starting to discount Christmas items
2008-11-13 19:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...I'm not talking about merchandise per se, but I am talking about holiday lights, wrapping paper, this kind of stuff
2008-11-13 19:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is unheard of at this early stage
2008-11-13 19:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the retailers, in essence, are panicking here (and for good reason...look at the energy numbers this morning)
2008-11-13 19:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people have cut back on everything - with most still in the same mode that they were when gas was over $4.00 a gallon
2008-11-13 19:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the record...in the last 35 days, 87 here has dropped over $1.50
2008-11-13 19:31:06 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: WTIC has held its long-term support t/l following a brief visit below...multi-yr tl
2008-11-13 19:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also had a zero line snapback in the composite NYSE breadth MCO today
2008-11-13 19:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and GASO??
2008-11-13 19:32:04 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: no idea
2008-11-13 19:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with a small bullish cross over on the components
2008-11-13 19:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm curious - let me take a peak
2008-11-13 19:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: SC only has data back to 2005 - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GASO&p=D&st=2005-01-01&i=t61080576193&r=7076
2008-11-13 19:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: impressive
2008-11-13 19:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: basically, it costs about .50 per gallon between wholesale and retail
2008-11-13 19:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so at $1.25...87 should be below $2.00 for everyone fairly soon
2008-11-13 19:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's WTIC for comparison - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&st=2005-01-01&i=t66984669191&r=7415
2008-11-13 19:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with GASO down 64% in 4 months - wow
2008-11-13 19:35:50 [Message] lew -> Main Room: my wife pd 1.69 yesterday, in Ohio
2008-11-13 19:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're at $2.22 here
2008-11-13 19:36:11 [Message] lew -> Main Room: whoa
2008-11-13 19:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my business is across the street from one of the lowest price stations here in SacTown
2008-11-13 19:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you have to remember that here in California we have "designer gas" which adds about .30 a gallon to the cost
2008-11-13 19:36:54 [Message] lew -> Main Room: ah
2008-11-13 19:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and our state taxes on petrol are higher than most
2008-11-13 19:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all adds up
2008-11-13 19:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we were stuck at 3.63 until 35 days ago and then we started gapping lower
2008-11-13 19:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at one point, we had 3 straight days in which the price declined by .10 a DAY
2008-11-13 19:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and funny thing about it is that the majority of the gas here in California is domestic
2008-11-13 19:38:47 [Message] lew -> Main Room: my wife was thrilled - while I pd 19.9 once during the "gas wars" when I was in high school in the 70's
2008-11-13 19:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-11-13 19:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I remember the old odd/even days here in the 70's
2008-11-13 19:39:24 [Message] lew -> Main Room: lol
2008-11-13 19:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gas went from .26 a gallon - and peaked out at around .85
2008-11-13 19:39:42 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: some fib calcs for fun can be done using Stockcharts data for GS...swing weekly close low in 1999 is 54.02 to the swing high in 2007 of 233.90...I will be quiet now
2008-11-13 19:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we never got to odd/even this time around though
2008-11-13 19:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is GS at now?
2008-11-13 19:40:09 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 69.99
2008-11-13 19:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trying to hold at 70
2008-11-13 19:40:27 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Buffet not making out so well
2008-11-13 19:40:27 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 74.15 is major R
2008-11-13 19:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...down 75% from its high!
2008-11-13 19:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Buffet is a fundamentalist - a "value" buyer and seller
2008-11-13 19:41:32 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 61.02 was the low today....low for years
2008-11-13 19:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since 2003
2008-11-13 19:42:07 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y, but the "true value" may lie MUCH lower
2008-11-13 19:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now you can appreciate all the work the market did between 2002 and 2007 and how special it was
2008-11-13 19:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why....we're always in a bear market
2008-11-13 19:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: true or perceived value?
2008-11-13 19:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: value is only opinion
2008-11-13 19:42:46 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: draw 63.52 horizontal on a 10-year weekly chart of XBD...it visually explains where we bounced today
2008-11-13 19:42:47 [Message] lew -> Main Room: well, we don't know what junk they are holding
2008-11-13 19:43:05 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: buffet's often underwater for yrs after initial entry
2008-11-13 19:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...the 2003 base Hiker...I see it
2008-11-13 19:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: curious...one sec
2008-11-13 19:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=BRK/A&p=W&st=1995-01-01&i=p62928730901&a=154984580&r=2603
2008-11-13 19:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks like a deal!
2008-11-13 19:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any takers?
2008-11-13 19:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: none?
2008-11-13 19:47:26 [Message] lew -> Main Room: if that breaks, it could get "a bit" ugly
2008-11-13 19:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could...but if we bottomed today...
2008-11-13 19:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's probably one of the few left out there that still has a rising bottom line of this length of time
2008-11-13 19:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the data
2008-11-13 19:48:18 [Message] lew -> Main Room: generals get killed last, no?
2008-11-13 19:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at NYSE breadth MCSUM, and today's action has translated to getting nowhere fast
2008-11-13 19:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, still another day or so is needed for clarity
2008-11-13 19:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zero line snapback on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2008-11-13 19:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far then, we're back to even - balance between buyers and sellers
2008-11-13 19:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is in a precarious situation right now as it could go either way
2008-11-13 19:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and NO bullish crossover on the NASDAQ components
2008-11-13 19:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO powered higher today and is now back above its zero line
2008-11-13 19:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however...the components are not
2008-11-13 19:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so corrective activity continues here
2008-11-13 19:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would appear that everything is in sync right now
2008-11-13 19:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zero line snapback's on the MCO leaving little trending indication in the MCSUM's
2008-11-13 19:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: under such conditions...this would be a pause of an over extended market
2008-11-13 19:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem is the range
2008-11-13 19:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is short...no...it's just amazing
2008-11-13 19:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very important to continue to remember that the market is going to do everything it can to keep people from making money here
2008-11-13 19:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and these wild gyrations work their magic in this just as simple sideways indecision patterns do
2008-11-13 19:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this area
2008-11-13 19:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and taking a step backward
2008-11-13 19:54:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What range are you talking about?
2008-11-13 19:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all we're really doing is trading sideways anyway
2008-11-13 19:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: horizontal range
2008-11-13 19:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me mark up a chart
2008-11-13 19:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=2008-03-01&i=p63678410978&a=154987069&r=1891
2008-11-13 19:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...it's only a consolidation
2008-11-13 19:57:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What about a SOB?
2008-11-13 19:57:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...whether we're creating a base, or taking a pause, is what we're trying to ultimately determine
2008-11-13 19:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, you can make a case for that
2008-11-13 19:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it is interesting that we needed a close below the October lows to trigger it
2008-11-13 19:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we didn't - at least we didn't today
2008-11-13 19:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like the market looking over the cliff and deciding against jumping
2008-11-13 19:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but in its simplest form...it's a consolidation after a massive sell off
2008-11-13 19:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...for those who remember the 1987 bottom, today's reversal also had the markings of a bottom in that context
2008-11-13 19:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, with November Expiration next week, and many "rookie" put buyers out there either buying October or November puts, it wouldn't be unusual at all that the market is going to do everything it can to make these same options worthless as it has many times in the past
2008-11-13 20:00:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How about a continuation pattern then? Yes, could be that
2008-11-13 20:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-11-13 20:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be a base
2008-11-13 20:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be a pause
2008-11-13 20:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only the direction of money flow will push us in one direction or the other and why it's important to know
2008-11-13 20:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...with a week to go for expiry, we can move back up to the top of the range (which is nothing to sneeze at)
2008-11-13 20:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: relieve our "oversold" conditions in the volume oscillators, and then go about our business from there
2008-11-13 20:02:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: or?
2008-11-13 20:02:27 [Message] lew -> Main Room: it seems that is what's expected
2008-11-13 20:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far...the internals don't seem to be tipping any hands here as yet
2008-11-13 20:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would make the most sense, yes
2008-11-13 20:03:14 [Message] lew -> Main Room: but, this market rarely plays out "as expected"
2008-11-13 20:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every crash like event that has happened in past Sept/Oct periods always play games with traders in the Oct/Nov periods
2008-11-13 20:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's still in crash mode
2008-11-13 20:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...it's like a tsunami of water moving in, with the equal and opposite effect creating the rip tide
2008-11-13 20:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or..like sloshing water back and forth in a bathtub...it's just going to take for this to subside
2008-11-13 20:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the meantime, we're just going to get these wild and wooly days
2008-11-13 20:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what is it...? we have only had less than a triple digit Dow close in only 4 or 5 trading days in the last 2 months?
2008-11-13 20:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's been unbelievable!
2008-11-13 20:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we get smoother waters, it's just going to keep up...
2008-11-13 20:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: heck...the FED is still mopping the floor of the excess water that escaped from the tub in October during the crash!
2008-11-13 20:07:01 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Cox wants Congress (!) to investigate this volatility.
2008-11-13 20:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-11-13 20:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does he now?
2008-11-13 20:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these people have mental problems
2008-11-13 20:07:20 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: So he says
2008-11-13 20:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of them
2008-11-13 20:07:38 [Message] lew -> Main Room: in a past chat, did you not have an expectation that a wave 1 down would test todays area, or so?
2008-11-13 20:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much smoke and pill popping in the 60's!
2008-11-13 20:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...I do seem to remember that...could be
2008-11-13 20:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do we have 5 down?
2008-11-13 20:08:21 [Message] lew -> Main Room: irregular flat complete, 1 down, now 2 up?
2008-11-13 20:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-11-13 20:08:30 [Message] lew -> Main Room: y, have 5 down
2008-11-13 20:08:48 [Message] lew -> Main Room: and an abc up
2008-11-13 20:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the Elliott angle since it was brought up
2008-11-13 20:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 3rd waves are "wonders to behold" because they break a significant area of support or resistance convincing the majority of the prevailing trend
2008-11-13 20:09:58 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-11-13 20:10:03 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I don't believe today's rally. Yes, it was impressive and felt like a reversal, but overall nothing has changed. Big down day tomorrow will be a natural outcome.
2008-11-13 20:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my thought was that we would find a bottom at the lows of October, rally up for a bull trap, and then break below this same horizontal support to create wave 3 of 5
2008-11-13 20:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that could be what's exactly happening here
2008-11-13 20:10:36 [Message] lew -> Main Room: EXACTLY
2008-11-13 20:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the internals confirm this so far
2008-11-13 20:10:48 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-11-13 20:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all we've done is come back below the zero line on the MCO's and have snapped back
2008-11-13 20:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM's are still below strong resistance areas
2008-11-13 20:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and these areas will need to continue to hold in order for this Elliott scenario to come about
2008-11-13 20:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is another reason why we need more information
2008-11-13 20:12:04 [Message] lew -> Main Room: set up is "VERY GOOD" I feel
2008-11-13 20:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but at this point...it was a "nice, high volume, reversal day"
2008-11-13 20:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one step further on this
2008-11-13 20:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the idea is to get everyone believing that we have tested the lows successfully
2008-11-13 20:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the range as large as it is, where we can rally another 10% and STILL remain range bound, this sets up the "disappointment" that encourages panic phases
2008-11-13 20:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people are impatient - especially in today's world
2008-11-13 20:14:00 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: futures ah es -7 nq -6
2008-11-13 20:14:20 [Message] lew -> Main Room: roughly a .50 retrace where we sit here
2008-11-13 20:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the futures were up 15 on Tuesday...and we saw what happened on Wednesday?
2008-11-13 20:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then how about a pull back tomorrow...and then a higher high into expiration?
2008-11-13 20:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing we do know is...we're extremely choppy...but with a bearish bias
2008-11-13 20:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but all of this aside
2008-11-13 20:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing we have to work with is that we had a nice reversal day today
2008-11-13 20:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that needs to show follow through...and then to HOLD
2008-11-13 20:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like moving in an elevator...and opening the doors to each floor to see if everything is OK...or if someone is screaming fire or not
2008-11-13 20:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a building process
2008-11-13 20:17:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Isn't every reversal followed by a reversal of the reversal? Been that way last couple months....
2008-11-13 20:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in consolidations, yes
2008-11-13 20:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the beginning stages of a trend initiation...not nearly as much
2008-11-13 20:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but for uptrends to begin, you MUST have a foundation in which to build
2008-11-13 20:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this area, we still don't have this
2008-11-13 20:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the only thing that the bulls can count on now is that today's reversal has set a floor in which a potential foundation can now begin
2008-11-13 20:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as opposed to the October lows which was strictly one of reflex or relief in scope, and thereby, was doomed to be retested
2008-11-13 20:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: going back to the chart posted earlier showing the consolidation
2008-11-13 20:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it also shows how much work still needs to be done just to see prices rally back to their declining tops line
2008-11-13 20:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which could have started today as well (Elliott aside)
2008-11-13 20:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line...the trend is still down until proven otherwise...period...case closed
2008-11-13 20:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that shouldn't keep us from exploiting opportunities along the way either
2008-11-13 20:24:50 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: that case was closed a year ago
2008-11-13 20:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in retrospect, yes, it was - but it wasn't confirmed
2008-11-13 20:25:25 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: 2002 lows is the next little target as a minimum
2008-11-13 20:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...measuring gap objective wise
2008-11-13 20:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have now met the 1st two objectives on the Dow and SPX
2008-11-13 20:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we met the COMPX this week on the 1st objective, and the NDX pulled up short of this first objective
2008-11-13 20:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term
2008-11-13 20:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still have a lot of room to decline before we even test the longer term rising bottoms line going back to 1980
2008-11-13 20:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: context is everything to everybody both in here and who take the time to review the transcripts
2008-11-13 20:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as far as the 2002 lows are concerned, the next downside objective for the Dow is 7263 which are the 2002 lows
2008-11-13 20:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when and if we get there is still up for discussion
2008-11-13 20:28:36 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: today's advance is the short entry point in my opinion.
2008-11-13 20:28:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How about SPX objective?
2008-11-13 20:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be...heck...you can get 20 or 30 ES points and still use today's reversal as a keystone
2008-11-13 20:29:23 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: 770 or so in my book as a minimum
2008-11-13 20:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the range is so wide here...short, long...go for it
2008-11-13 20:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from this juncture?
2008-11-13 20:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 3rd downside objective for the SPX cash is 724
2008-11-13 20:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would also be darn close to the 2002 lows
2008-11-13 20:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I didn't create the measuring gap, the market did
2008-11-13 20:31:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Aren't 2002 low 726?
2008-11-13 20:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the rest of the McClellan charts are pretty much a duplicate of what we've already discussed...review them at your leisure
2008-11-13 20:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it?
2008-11-13 20:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me check
2008-11-13 20:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: closing basis for the Dow is 7286
2008-11-13 20:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: closing basis for the cash SPX is 777
2008-11-13 20:33:13 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: Is 1070 still the upside target for this bounce ?
2008-11-13 20:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday for the SPX is 769
2008-11-13 20:34:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 769 pretty close to Dennis 770
2008-11-13 20:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't believe we'll get that far...but it really does depend on the angle your going to take for an upside objective...let me look a bit at the pattern B
2008-11-13 20:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intraday on the Dow is 7197
2008-11-13 20:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good enough for horseshoes
2008-11-13 20:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...upside objectives
2008-11-13 20:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's think simple here
2008-11-13 20:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have the 20 day EMA at 940, and it's going to take the MCO to move back above it's blip point of this week to get there
2008-11-13 20:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we see this, then this would be the first objective
2008-11-13 20:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 50 day EMA is pinned at 1026
2008-11-13 20:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's probably going to take something exceptional, internally, to get there
2008-11-13 20:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not in daily plurality, but the number of days in which we can stay above the MCO zero line
2008-11-13 20:37:43 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: I think today's high is all we will get as far as upside is concerned. Maybe I am wrong, but I view today as a one day wonder.
2008-11-13 20:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order for prices to free itself from its default, money must be moving in concert in this same direction
2008-11-13 20:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might be Dennis
2008-11-13 20:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with many sectors, and index', all showing high volume today
2008-11-13 20:38:31 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: TY
2008-11-13 20:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would be more in the camp of looking for a choppy advance from the market from here
2008-11-13 20:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: YW...
2008-11-13 20:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be like having an open 5 gallon jug of water spill and trying to plug the hole before all of the water escapes
2008-11-13 20:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you might have some short term success, but until you get the bottle right side up...
2008-11-13 20:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would personally respect the reversal today as it was broad based
2008-11-13 20:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but on the bearish side, it didn't "start" anything
2008-11-13 20:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the way we've been trading over the last month
2008-11-13 20:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would be more inclined to see any kind of exhaustion to this move only when we get the STVO's minimally back to their zero lines...no less...back to "overbought" again
2008-11-13 20:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as we've seen, this doesn't take that long to do
2008-11-13 20:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but thinking like a layman here - like Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie - even if I didn't know that we broke below the October lows today - to "hear" that the Dow was down 300 points and then reversed to close up 550 as a "sigh of relief" with all we've been hearing about on the news of late
2008-11-13 20:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then you throw in the "unexpected" new highs in the jobs numbers this morning
2008-11-13 20:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll probably get some nice follow through...regardless
2008-11-13 20:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the layman's not going out and selling at the open
2008-11-13 20:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking that, once again...every thing's gonna be OK
2008-11-13 20:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you might be right
2008-11-13 20:44:40 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: probably half the move done today. Other half in steps
2008-11-13 20:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with OPEX next week...I would favor some backing and filling for a couple of days
2008-11-13 20:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be Geo
2008-11-13 20:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...it's the psychology of all of this that's important
2008-11-13 20:45:23 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: bush nyc visit/talk very " co-incidental" to 550 push up
2008-11-13 20:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides...most bases take place over time
2008-11-13 20:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...that was something as well
2008-11-13 20:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you notice on the 5 minute chart...it took place exactly at 13:00
2008-11-13 20:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as if this was planned
2008-11-13 20:46:32 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: including the drop just prior
2008-11-13 20:46:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bush speaks, market rallys.....who would think
2008-11-13 20:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (not to say it was something devious...but more in the way of "saving" the market)
2008-11-13 20:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wasn't that amazing?
2008-11-13 20:47:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: truly amazing
2008-11-13 20:47:03 [Message] beta -> Main Room: 940 sounds right to me. See the two daily candles from 9/18-9/19, that's where I think we are.
2008-11-13 20:47:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was like they ran the market
2008-11-13 20:47:09 [Message] lew -> Main Room: a B down of this up move would still be a 48 point drop, if the A is in, if we truly go higher at a
2008-11-13 20:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-11-13 20:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are many scenarios here
2008-11-13 20:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the bottom line here is with the flow of money
2008-11-13 20:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this area, we are nowhere near looking productive
2008-11-13 20:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...remember this about the MCSUM
2008-11-13 20:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even if it turns up and breaks above resistance, it is still low enough to impede the progress of an advance
2008-11-13 20:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and more than likely, we can STILL see lower lows even if the MCSUM is able to climb another 500 data points
2008-11-13 20:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's going to take time for this pass
2008-11-13 20:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so in this vein
2008-11-13 20:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even though today was exciting, just like the days in which we saw the Dow rally 950 and 700 points - the CONTEXT is that we in the midst of a consolidation
2008-11-13 20:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still need proof
2008-11-13 20:50:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So what about those volume oscillators....let's look them
2008-11-13 20:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we get it, fine...great
2008-11-13 20:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about those volume oscillators...!!
2008-11-13 20:50:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: just a thought
2008-11-13 20:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...I like it when you whisper in my ear
2008-11-13 20:51:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Was consolidating thoughts and it came to me
2008-11-13 20:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I see the time...thanks
2008-11-13 20:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after going to extreme "oversold" levels yesterday, the CVI's are basically neutral again
2008-11-13 20:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does anyone find the CVI's useful for potential turns in the market?
2008-11-13 20:52:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes
2008-11-13 20:52:42 [Message] hpm123 -> Main Room: yep -
2008-11-13 20:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a nice little indicator, isn't it?
2008-11-13 20:52:56 [Message] hpm123 -> Main Room: one of my favorites personally
2008-11-13 20:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we're neutral there
2008-11-13 20:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another thing to point out from yesterday
2008-11-13 20:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that the CVI's broke their rising bottoms lines yesterday...
2008-11-13 20:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this gives us another reset here for us to look at over the next couple weeks
2008-11-13 20:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...the market isn't quite finished
2008-11-13 20:54:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: finished with what?
2008-11-13 20:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: selling, in this case
2008-11-13 20:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the reason I concentrate on the tools we cover here is for many reasons as each has it's place when used in concert
2008-11-13 20:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the beauty of all of them is that they give us a way to see the lessening of buying or selling pressure
2008-11-13 20:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's easy to see extremes being created
2008-11-13 20:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what's more important is knowing when the pressure of these same extremes are decreasing in magnitude
2008-11-13 20:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: divergences are just another way to see this happen
2008-11-13 20:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...I keep thinking of the sloshing of water in a bathtub
2008-11-13 20:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: take away the energy that creates the force, and eventually, something equal and opposite can occur
2008-11-13 20:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with this thought
2008-11-13 20:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the configuration of the STVO's
2008-11-13 20:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had a bottom above a bottom, but this too was broken yesterday
2008-11-13 20:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, it then becomes "unlikely" that the price pattern being measured will have enough behind it to "break out"
2008-11-13 20:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, if another bottom was created yesterday prior to today's reversal
2008-11-13 21:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then that would suggest that there could be enough selling behind us that the "balance of power" can switch sides, break out, and build on that
2008-11-13 21:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...STVO's are still "oversold"
2008-11-13 21:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should expect at least a zero line test there
2008-11-13 21:01:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks for pointing out the nuance on the charts
2008-11-13 21:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe a small pullback like we saw in mid October...and then move to "overbought" again?
2008-11-13 21:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...I try...
2008-11-13 21:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're looking for rhythm
2008-11-13 21:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you're looking for consistency to this same rhythm
2008-11-13 21:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is just not going to stop and reverse without some sort of structure or texture behind it
2008-11-13 21:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we should always remain cautious of sharp and quick thrusts in oscillators
2008-11-13 21:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much...too fast...and you're doomed to retrace without much to show for it
2008-11-13 21:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and usually retrace faster than the previous direction because of the vacuum created by this same lack of structure
2008-11-13 21:04:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, maybe 900 points a little fast?
2008-11-13 21:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's still looking for the zero line
2008-11-13 21:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...it's a very broad range here
2008-11-13 21:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it makes it very hard to remain unemotional about the whole thing
2008-11-13 21:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why I keep banging the table of keeping things simple here
2008-11-13 21:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - I was short from yesterday and just letting things ride
2008-11-13 21:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but once the market broke above - ummmm- comparable would be Dow 8300 - I was out
2008-11-13 21:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have no patience to play the markets game right now
2008-11-13 21:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all I was doing is letting the market make its move
2008-11-13 21:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: once it broke above my EMA...later
2008-11-13 21:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...I lost out on, what? 200 Dow points of profit
2008-11-13 21:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I picked up more than enough by keeping the trade as simple as possible
2008-11-13 21:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway
2008-11-13 21:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my my
2008-11-13 21:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .21
2008-11-13 21:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-11-13 21:08:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: that's fairly low
2008-11-13 21:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ?
2008-11-13 21:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: .21
2008-11-13 21:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fairly?
2008-11-13 21:08:45 [Message] lew -> Main Room: short squeeze
2008-11-13 21:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: understatement
2008-11-13 21:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir...short covering
2008-11-13 21:08:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: water in the tub
2008-11-13 21:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: big time
2008-11-13 21:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: across all areas
2008-11-13 21:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: .21 - wow
2008-11-13 21:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh man...
2008-11-13 21:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .94
2008-11-13 21:09:32 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: 1.46 at 1pm and trended down from there
2008-11-13 21:09:33 [Message] lew -> Main Room: tick high, as well
2008-11-13 21:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's see what else we have here
2008-11-13 21:10:23 [Message] lew -> Main Room: timber
2008-11-13 21:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow - NASDAQ TRIN at .32
2008-11-13 21:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.03
2008-11-13 21:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still a bit on the "oversold" side
2008-11-13 21:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .26
2008-11-13 21:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.01
2008-11-13 21:11:18 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: to be fair, over the past week we had some back-to-back BIG trins
2008-11-13 21:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..well...I would look for some follow through here
2008-11-13 21:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, we have
2008-11-13 21:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and STILL the Open 10's rose
2008-11-13 21:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that will change tomorrow...no doubt as a number drops off
2008-11-13 21:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 4 day looks like the market is having a heart attack
2008-11-13 21:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem here is kinda of simple
2008-11-13 21:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM is so "oversold" right now that it's very difficult for the market to continue to trend lower
2008-11-13 21:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can have big one day moves, but it can't really trend
2008-11-13 21:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the flip side, the MCSUM's are so "oversold" here that the bulls can't rally
2008-11-13 21:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's too much weight holding them down
2008-11-13 21:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure, they can get up and walk a couple of paces
2008-11-13 21:13:53 [Message] lew -> Main Room: at gap resistance, as well, no?
2008-11-13 21:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then the weight is too much to carry
2008-11-13 21:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yup
2008-11-13 21:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's quite a battle
2008-11-13 21:14:13 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-11-13 21:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the path of least resistance remains lower
2008-11-13 21:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can take 4 days to move 10%, but only 2 days to retrace this same move
2008-11-13 21:14:47 [Message] lew -> Main Room: retail sales may be a gattling gun, lol
2008-11-13 21:15:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Are retail sales tomorrow?
2008-11-13 21:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like having a weight on your ankles in the deep end of a pool and trying to keep your head above water before sinking again
2008-11-13 21:15:15 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-11-13 21:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but please everyone
2008-11-13 21:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember last week?
2008-11-13 21:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how the market declined going INTO the Friday data?
2008-11-13 21:16:09 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: we will open with a 20 point gap down (if bulls are lucky), try to bounce for 15 minutes, but euro/yen will not bounce, and start to go down slowly. It will be a quiet 50 point decline tomorrow as a minimum.
2008-11-13 21:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we might see a repeat of that tomorrow...already discounted
2008-11-13 21:16:27 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y, and it has risen into this
2008-11-13 21:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see...your forecast has been duly noted
2008-11-13 21:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any break down from here though below the October lows is not going to look pretty
2008-11-13 21:17:22 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: spooz are down 9 already. I am shorting as we speak.
2008-11-13 21:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-11-13 21:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good trading
2008-11-13 21:17:31 [Message] lew -> Main Room: THX again!
2008-11-13 21:17:33 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: see you at new lows
2008-11-13 21:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...and you will get due credit
2008-11-13 21:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else
2008-11-13 21:18:00 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: cvi's? info link?
2008-11-13 21:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's info is at DP - let me get a link
2008-11-13 21:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmmm...I don't see one Dan
2008-11-13 21:21:05 [Message] Dan -> Main Room: cvi acronym? i can wiki
2008-11-13 21:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Dan...think of the CVI...oh...
2008-11-13 21:21:15 [Message] caduceus -> Main Room: Trin5 at Decisionpoint is in the same range as the other 2 major highs within this month long trading range FWIW... I tend to think we will push higher to 980 plus minimum
2008-11-13 21:21:24 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: climactic volume indicator: measures extreme OBV moves
2008-11-13 21:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI - Climactic Volume Indicator...it uses the same premise as the On Balance Volume indicator
2008-11-13 21:22:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think CVI a proprietary DP thing
2008-11-13 21:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...all I know is that anything can happen within the price range
2008-11-13 21:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 980 - great
2008-11-13 21:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1070 - fantastic
2008-11-13 21:22:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 770 great
2008-11-13 21:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until we get better breadth...no matter where we might wind up, it's just not going to hold
2008-11-13 21:23:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: expanding bottom of range a bit
2008-11-13 21:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would something to exploit
2008-11-13 21:23:24 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: 30day ATR ~ 50-60 for spx, so can reach either direction pretty quickly
2008-11-13 21:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to get out of here
2008-11-13 21:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: heck...I saw the Dow move in 70 point increments today - every 15 seconds
2008-11-13 21:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch