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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-11-12 16:00:07 fib1618: good day
2015-11-12 16:00:10 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-11-12 16:00:14 rite01: and to you
2015-11-12 16:00:19 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-11-12 16:00:59 fib1618: doing fine
2015-11-12 16:01:07 fib1618: I just wish business would pick up
2015-11-12 16:01:20 thespookyone: I'm sure you are not alone
2015-11-12 16:01:28 fib1618: I have many friends now that are "this close" from closing now
2015-11-12 16:01:41 rite01: wow
2015-11-12 16:01:46 fib1618: all of Los Angeles is dismal right now
2015-11-12 16:02:55 rite01: are they in the same line of work?
2015-11-12 16:03:01 fib1618: yes
2015-11-12 16:03:04 fib1618: and other areas as well
2015-11-12 16:03:25 fib1618: they're being strapped by government regulations
2015-11-12 16:03:30 thespookyone: unfortunately, fashion leads [frown]
2015-11-12 16:03:41 fib1618: and foreign commerce
2015-11-12 16:03:47 fib1618: yes, it does
2015-11-12 16:04:30 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-11-12 16:05:16 rite01: noticed the TRIN >2 today and last two days some of my old bad trading habits raised their head
2015-11-12 16:05:21 thespookyone: Nice drop, bu I'm out due to the 2.0 TRIN
2015-11-12 16:06:00 rite01: congrats spooky
2015-11-12 16:06:17 thespookyone: thx, but these waters are fairly tough
2015-11-12 16:06:38 fib1618: well...Wednesday was a failure day
2015-11-12 16:06:52 fib1618: but at least we got the small point change right!
2015-11-12 16:06:58 thespookyone: yep
2015-11-12 16:07:11 fib1618: more times than not
2015-11-12 16:07:29 fib1618: it's more important information if the market doesn't do what it's "supposed to do"
2015-11-12 16:08:24 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2015-11-12 16:08:37 rite01: small point change?
2015-11-12 16:08:41 fib1618: ugh
2015-11-12 16:08:56 fib1618: yes...we had a small point change in the NASDAQ and TM breadth MCO's on Tuesday
2015-11-12 16:09:18 rite01: right just not talking about today
2015-11-12 16:09:24 fib1618: which usually means a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next 2 trading sessions
2015-11-12 16:09:45 fib1618: we got that today
2015-11-12 16:09:59 fib1618: OK..time to see what kind of damage we have to work with
2015-11-12 16:10:03 fib1618: and we'll start with the NYA
2015-11-12 16:10:08 fib1618: which gaped to the downside today
2015-11-12 16:10:30 fib1618: and with it
2015-11-12 16:10:44 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO took out its divergent lows of late September
2015-11-12 16:11:06 fib1618: this now cancels the upside target generated by this methodology
2015-11-12 16:11:42 fib1618: with a challenge of the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM zero line our next expectation
2015-11-12 16:12:45 fib1618: both of the CO MCO components are now below their zero lines as well
2015-11-12 16:12:54 fib1618: so we have a technical sell signal in force
2015-11-12 16:13:10 fib1618: (should had listened to the BETS on Tuesday)
2015-11-12 16:13:58 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-11-12 16:14:13 fib1618: and here we also saw downside acceleration in the last two days
2015-11-12 16:14:36 fib1618: but the good news now is that the CO MCO has now thrusted ahead of the Composite MCO
2015-11-12 16:16:11 fib1618: this would then suggest that today's sell off was more weighted with the common stocks than that of the interest rate sensitive issues
2015-11-12 16:16:22 fib1618: usually when we see this happen
2015-11-12 16:16:35 fib1618: we're close to some sort of reflex
2015-11-12 16:17:02 fib1618: but with the break of the end September lows in the NYSE MCO's
2015-11-12 16:17:27 fib1618: any rally from here is one that should be used to unload on weak long positions
2015-11-12 16:17:40 fib1618: with tight stops on the remaining open trades
2015-11-12 16:17:53 fib1618: let me quickly check the BETS for a feel here...one sec
2015-11-12 16:19:03 fib1618: not good
2015-11-12 16:19:05 fib1618: -55
2015-11-12 16:19:19 fib1618: and things look to be falling apart again
2015-11-12 16:19:38 fib1618: the NYAD line got clobbered over the last couple of days
2015-11-12 16:19:47 fib1618: the NAAD line is now back to a bearish configuration
2015-11-12 16:19:57 fib1618: so unless we see something positive in our review tonight
2015-11-12 16:20:25 fib1618: it would be prudent to stand aside...or start looking around for short candidates
2015-11-12 16:20:45 fib1618: awfully weak...even if this is going to last only another week
2015-11-12 16:21:06 fib1618: the cumulative charts are just not showing any kind of strength right now
2015-11-12 16:21:12 fib1618: Canada looks awful
2015-11-12 16:21:23 fib1618: OK...on to the NASDAQ
2015-11-12 16:22:09 fib1618: and the first thing we note is that we closed right at the very top of the range of the measuring gap we were chatting about on Tuesday
2015-11-12 16:22:47 fib1618: wow...you can really see the rally failure here on Wednesday by the price bar
2015-11-12 16:23:20 fib1618: so we were still right about Wednesday being an up day
2015-11-12 16:23:32 fib1618: but something happened toward the end of the day that changed things
2015-11-12 16:23:44 fib1618: and then we saw a big acceleration to the downside into the close
2015-11-12 16:23:56 fib1618: anyway
2015-11-12 16:24:06 fib1618: the other thing that sticks out like a sore thumb
2015-11-12 16:24:13 fib1618: is the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-11-12 16:24:19 fib1618: and how it was turned away at the zero line
2015-11-12 16:25:09 fib1618: so after being in positive territory in the NASDAQ MCO for about 6 weeks
2015-11-12 16:25:49 fib1618: it would appear that we're now going to see this, and probably all of the MCO's, below the zero line for the next several weeks in order to find balance
2015-11-12 16:26:58 fib1618: NASDAQ MCO components are also confirmed our sell signal here as well
2015-11-12 16:27:45 fib1618: the NDX actually moved into the measuring gap today
2015-11-12 16:28:00 fib1618: and that's not a good thing since it was the NDX that was leading stock prices higher
2015-11-12 16:32:35 fib1618: with the NDX now leading the Composite to the downside
2015-11-12 16:36:38 fib1618: what the bulls don't want to see here is for this index to now lead to the downside
2015-11-12 16:36:45 fib1618: primarily the FANG stocks
2015-11-12 16:36:51 fib1618: Facebook
2015-11-12 16:36:53 fib1618: Amazon
2015-11-12 16:36:56 fib1618: Netflix
2015-11-12 16:36:59 fib1618: Google
2015-11-12 16:37:39 fib1618: with the NDX MCO 5% Trend now at its zero line
2015-11-12 16:37:52 fib1618: a technical bounce should be seen as soon as Friday
2015-11-12 16:38:19 fib1618: alternately
2015-11-12 16:38:24 fib1618: if we continue to break down here
2015-11-12 16:38:35 fib1618: and the 5% moves below its zero line
2015-11-12 16:39:01 fib1618: next week could present some intriguing problems for the market at large
2015-11-12 16:39:15 fib1618: but you have to figure
2015-11-12 16:39:22 fib1618: with a -75 reading in the NDX breadth MCO
2015-11-12 16:39:45 rite01: NDX 5% is below 0 line at -3?
2015-11-12 16:39:48 fib1618: a reflex rally of some kind - if not to save itself from closing the price pattern gap - would be expected
2015-11-12 16:40:04 fib1618: -3 is the zero line for all intents and purposes
2015-11-12 16:40:14 rite01: got it
2015-11-12 16:40:35 fib1618: nothing exact in this business [smile]
2015-11-12 16:40:36 fib1618: looks like the market staggered while getting off the floor after being hit last week and then collapsed again
2015-11-12 16:41:06 fib1618: technical breakdown as well in the SPX breadth MCO
2015-11-12 16:41:27 fib1618: but luckily for the bulls
2015-11-12 16:41:36 fib1618: the SPX breadth MCSUM is still above the +500 level
2015-11-12 16:42:03 fib1618: so any further declines should be rather muted
2015-11-12 16:42:29 fib1618: the SPX also filled its mid October pattern gap today
2015-11-12 16:43:06 fib1618: with all of this happening right after we met our upside price objective targets given at the beginning of October
2015-11-12 16:43:41 fib1618: this is why it's always good to take something off the table when you reach projected price targets
2015-11-12 16:44:21 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO is now deeply "oversold" with a -90 reading
2015-11-12 16:44:40 fib1618: and you can include the Dow breadth MCO as well
2015-11-12 16:45:14 fib1618: more importantly
2015-11-12 16:45:39 fib1618: we took out the beginning of September bottoming sequence with today's -90 readings
2015-11-12 16:45:44 fib1618: this is not a good thing
2015-11-12 16:46:11 fib1618: as it would indicate that the current pullback in prices will probably retrace at least 50%
2015-11-12 16:47:06 fib1618: after snapping back to the zero line on Tuesday
2015-11-12 16:47:11 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO has now fallen apart
2015-11-12 16:47:25 fib1618: but in spite of this
2015-11-12 16:47:31 fib1618: still remains above the lows of late September
2015-11-12 16:47:45 fib1618: but we like we touched upon on Tuesday
2015-11-12 16:47:52 fib1618: a break below the zero line
2015-11-12 16:47:57 fib1618: with a snapback to the line
2015-11-12 16:48:06 fib1618: either shows good upside follow through for a quick bottom
2015-11-12 16:48:17 fib1618: or we just fall apart
2015-11-12 16:48:21 fib1618: and here we are
2015-11-12 16:48:26 thespookyone: It's funny, that pattern off the bottom still looks SO motive, longer term
2015-11-12 16:48:59 fib1618: motive?
2015-11-12 16:49:06 thespookyone: yes
2015-11-12 16:49:14 rite01: suspect?
2015-11-12 16:49:15 fib1618: not following
2015-11-12 16:49:28 thespookyone: price pattern on the Mid
2015-11-12 16:49:36 fib1618: oh
2015-11-12 16:49:38 dand64: motive=impulsive?
2015-11-12 16:49:42 thespookyone: yes
2015-11-12 16:49:54 fib1618: well
2015-11-12 16:49:58 fib1618: we have to remember here
2015-11-12 16:50:13 fib1618: that the late September lows were rather sloppy
2015-11-12 16:50:19 fib1618: we had some indices that were diverging
2015-11-12 16:50:45 fib1618: while others were pulled up by their boot straps the first Monday of October
2015-11-12 16:50:58 fib1618: so we never really had a clean divergence point
2015-11-12 16:51:07 fib1618: we sure did have a thrust though
2015-11-12 16:51:14 fib1618: but even now
2015-11-12 16:51:18 thespookyone: was the MID not divergent?
2015-11-12 16:51:27 fib1618: we had the large caps reaching their objectives
2015-11-12 16:51:30 fib1618: no..the MID missed by pennies
2015-11-12 16:51:52 fib1618: but the OEX, SPX did not
2015-11-12 16:51:57 thespookyone: right
2015-11-12 16:51:58 fib1618: still
2015-11-12 16:52:18 fib1618: it was enough of a thrust to reach our upside targets in the NASDAQ, NDX, SPX, OEX, Dow
2015-11-12 16:52:21 fib1618: but not the NYA
2015-11-12 16:52:23 fib1618: or the MID
2015-11-12 16:52:25 fib1618: or the SML
2015-11-12 16:52:57 fib1618: even the BETS only moved to neutral during the rally phase...and only got to a -10
2015-11-12 16:53:18 fib1618: so putting our Elliott hat on for a moment
2015-11-12 16:53:24 fib1618: if there are inconsistencies
2015-11-12 16:53:33 fib1618: and the patterns are in 3's
2015-11-12 16:54:29 fib1618: could be we just finished that "B" wave we were chatting about in September
2015-11-12 16:54:45 fib1618: now
2015-11-12 16:54:55 fib1618: the important thing here on that subject is...
2015-11-12 16:55:17 fib1618: that the lows of late August in the MCO's can NOT, by any means, be taken out
2015-11-12 16:55:22 fib1618: if they are
2015-11-12 16:55:30 fib1618: the "B" was a "2"
2015-11-12 16:55:41 thespookyone: yes
2015-11-12 16:55:43 fib1618: now
2015-11-12 16:55:51 fib1618: I'm not necessarily leaning toward that
2015-11-12 16:56:00 fib1618: simply because of the new highs in the NDX
2015-11-12 16:56:13 fib1618: but that could had been a blow off...and it looks like a 3 step structure
2015-11-12 16:56:32 fib1618: the current concern is the way the we didn't hold the rally on Wednesday
2015-11-12 16:56:39 thespookyone: me either, the overall long term strength of the market doesn't seem to make that realistic
2015-11-12 16:56:45 fib1618: and that's a problem
2015-11-12 16:56:52 fib1618: with the inside range day on Tuesday
2015-11-12 16:56:58 fib1618: with the apparent support of the internals
2015-11-12 16:57:06 fib1618: that we rallied in the futures
2015-11-12 16:57:08 thespookyone: maybe a matter of "time frames"?
2015-11-12 16:57:14 fib1618: moved up in the morning
2015-11-12 16:57:16 fib1618: lost it all
2015-11-12 16:57:24 fib1618: moved back up to higher highs intraday
2015-11-12 16:57:33 fib1618: and then pulsed lower into the close
2015-11-12 16:57:55 fib1618: that's a technical problem
2015-11-12 16:58:04 fib1618: looking daily only Lew
2015-11-12 16:58:35 fib1618: the only "impulse" that we pointed to over the last couple of weeks
2015-11-12 16:58:41 fib1618: was with the large caps
2015-11-12 16:58:56 fib1618: that would be a "C" wave under this bearish scenario
2015-11-12 16:59:08 fib1618: which will impulse
2015-11-12 16:59:12 rite01: thanks
2015-11-12 16:59:21 fib1618: the MID...was too choppy
2015-11-12 16:59:31 fib1618: remember a couple of weeks ago?
2015-11-12 16:59:50 fib1618: when we were concerned about the MID and SML not being able to move above the mid September price highs?
2015-11-12 16:59:56 thespookyone: yep
2015-11-12 17:00:05 rite01: yes
2015-11-12 17:00:07 fib1618: and as if by magic...they moved above these levels
2015-11-12 17:00:15 fib1618: but what happened after that?
2015-11-12 17:00:31 fib1618: we had one more push
2015-11-12 17:00:36 fib1618: and then exhaustion
2015-11-12 17:00:43 rite01: started breaking down
2015-11-12 17:00:43 thespookyone: the large should not have lead that long anyway, no?
2015-11-12 17:01:17 fib1618: I do not like the way the MID breadth MCO broke below zero
2015-11-12 17:01:17 fib1618: and then snapped back before moving decidedly lower over the last two days
2015-11-12 17:01:17 fib1618: again
2015-11-12 17:01:33 fib1618: in this case
2015-11-12 17:01:36 fib1618: the weaker indices
2015-11-12 17:01:41 fib1618: would lead lower
2015-11-12 17:01:52 fib1618: when we're seeing advancing price structures
2015-11-12 17:02:00 fib1618: we're looking for preferred leadership which would support good liquidity flows
2015-11-12 17:02:04 fib1618: the NASDAQ
2015-11-12 17:02:07 fib1618: the SML
2015-11-12 17:02:08 fib1618: and the MID
2015-11-12 17:02:17 fib1618: now the NASDAQ did fine
2015-11-12 17:02:19 fib1618: but then again
2015-11-12 17:02:38 fib1618: most of that came from the top 100 weighted stocks on the exchange
2015-11-12 17:02:49 fib1618: and that became "overbought"
2015-11-12 17:03:02 fib1618: this extended to the value areas
2015-11-12 17:03:13 fib1618: but the small caps and mid caps languished
2015-11-12 17:03:38 fib1618: now...looking at the chart again
2015-11-12 17:03:47 fib1618: the SML did meet its upside target
2015-11-12 17:03:57 fib1618: but the whole thing has been messy
2015-11-12 17:04:14 fib1618: certainly not like we've been used to over the last several years
2015-11-12 17:04:16 fib1618: now..
2015-11-12 17:04:32 fib1618: we have touched upon on how liquidity has been drying up for a while now
2015-11-12 17:04:53 fib1618: because the price of gold has been steadily declining for several years
2015-11-12 17:05:01 fib1618: and doing it again right now
2015-11-12 17:05:33 fib1618: which highly suggests that whatever the FED does next month, it will NOT provide excess liquidity to the marketplace
2015-11-12 17:05:56 fib1618: thinking
2015-11-12 17:06:26 fib1618: today's data is just not giving a bullish vibe at all
2015-11-12 17:06:32 fib1618: could change tomorrow, I guess
2015-11-12 17:07:01 fib1618: but it's the same feeling we're getting when we failed in mid July
2015-11-12 17:07:18 fib1618: which also happened after a failed inside range day as well
2015-11-12 17:07:34 fib1618: look...let's be candid here
2015-11-12 17:08:40 fib1618: both the BETS, and the weekly review of the breadth charts, were showing that some sort of backing and filling was likely about to begin 2 weeks ago
2015-11-12 17:08:42 fib1618: as we held up well until Friday's numbers rolled around
2015-11-12 17:09:40 fib1618: in any event, this was not a good day for the buyers
2015-11-12 17:10:10 fib1618: let's see if there's any positives we can still find here
2015-11-12 17:11:00 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO moved sharply lower
2015-11-12 17:11:08 fib1618: finishing the day with a -49
2015-11-12 17:12:01 fib1618: and broke below the lows of late September
2015-11-12 17:12:28 fib1618: with the TM MCO components now confirming the sell
2015-11-12 17:12:30 fib1618: so...
2015-11-12 17:12:44 fib1618: if you didn't have stops in place on your longs before
2015-11-12 17:12:50 fib1618: it's now time to do so
2015-11-12 17:12:57 fib1618: and look for an exit
2015-11-12 17:13:20 fib1618: as it would appear that it's not likely that we're going to finish things up, corrective wise, by the end of next week
2015-11-12 17:14:09 fib1618: and that it's now a pretty good bet that we're going to retrace a large amount of what was accomplished in October
2015-11-12 17:14:20 fib1618: going by the OEX and Dow
2015-11-12 17:14:25 fib1618: it could be everything gained
2015-11-12 17:16:54 fib1618: now...the good news
2015-11-12 17:17:00 fib1618: if we are able to hold here
2015-11-12 17:17:13 fib1618: then we would be setting up for an important price low
2015-11-12 17:17:18 fib1618: just like we saw in August
2015-11-12 17:17:48 fib1618: but the caveat here is that we MUST hold above those same MCO lows at that time
2015-11-12 17:18:08 fib1618: or it's not going to be a good holiday season for those at Broad and Wall
2015-11-12 17:18:35 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-11-12 17:19:22 fib1618: we see that the bearish divergent high of early November has now been triggered
2015-11-12 17:19:33 fib1618: with a breach of the zero line
2015-11-12 17:19:36 fib1618: a snapback
2015-11-12 17:19:50 fib1618: and the XLY breadth MCO moving sharply lower
2015-11-12 17:20:27 fib1618: good news there is that we are currently above the late September lows
2015-11-12 17:20:57 fib1618: but with the 10% component bouncing off its zero line
2015-11-12 17:21:04 fib1618: and then moving down and through it today
2015-11-12 17:21:20 fib1618: a challenge of those same September lows is now likely to take place
2015-11-12 17:22:03 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO is still looking weaker here
2015-11-12 17:22:18 fib1618: with multiple tops beneath tops
2015-11-12 17:22:44 fib1618: with now a failure to move back above the -50 level on its first bounce
2015-11-12 17:23:16 fib1618: and the 5% Trend not being able to move back above its zero line
2015-11-12 17:23:26 fib1618: taken together
2015-11-12 17:23:42 fib1618: a lower low in the XLP breadth MCO would not be too surprising
2015-11-12 17:24:05 fib1618: though it would be difficult to do so given that we are already deeply "oversold"
2015-11-12 17:24:29 fib1618: and a technical breakdown now in the XLF breadth MCO
2015-11-12 17:24:48 fib1618: as it wasn't able to take out its mid October highs
2015-11-12 17:25:21 fib1618: and triggering bear divergence as it moved sharply below the late October lows
2015-11-12 17:26:01 fib1618: note also that the XLE breadth MCSUM was not able to negotiate itself above the important +250 level
2015-11-12 17:26:29 fib1618: and this would now constitute the completion of a bear market rally in this index
2015-11-12 17:26:54 thespookyone: SOB coming?
2015-11-12 17:27:07 fib1618: we know this by the way there was very little texture in the XLE breadth MCO on its advances
2015-11-12 17:27:25 fib1618: and the corrective Elliott structure since the August lows
2015-11-12 17:27:46 fib1618: (A) (B) and a-b-c making up (C)
2015-11-12 17:28:04 fib1618: no SOB
2015-11-12 17:28:12 fib1618: remember that we have to have a collapse first
2015-11-12 17:28:16 fib1618: and then a struggle for a double top
2015-11-12 17:28:57 fib1618: as we talked about last week (or was it the week before?)
2015-11-12 17:29:06 fib1618: the XLE was likely to be the most interesting chart to follow
2015-11-12 17:29:10 fib1618: and at this point
2015-11-12 17:29:19 fib1618: we should see a pick up to the downside
2015-11-12 17:29:25 fib1618: with an objective of $62
2015-11-12 17:29:55 fib1618: any break of the rising bottoms line in the XLE breadth MCSUM
2015-11-12 17:30:13 fib1618: and that should open the door to new lows
2015-11-12 17:30:42 fib1618: it was quite an advance though
2015-11-12 17:31:13 fib1618: as we transversed over 2000 data points to the upside in the XLE breadth MCSUM
2015-11-12 17:31:23 fib1618: but it was just too much to extend beyond that
2015-11-12 17:31:31 fib1618: and now it's time for another rest
2015-11-12 17:31:33 fib1618: and maybe
2015-11-12 17:32:06 fib1618: a divergent low between price and the XLE breadth MCSUM
2015-11-12 17:32:19 fib1618: which is very likely to take place given how "oversold" we were in August
2015-11-12 17:33:00 fib1618: technical breakdown now in the XLF breadth MCO
2015-11-12 17:33:06 fib1618: did so on Friday
2015-11-12 17:33:25 fib1618: with follow through today
2015-11-12 17:33:38 fib1618: though near term
2015-11-12 17:33:53 fib1618: a bounce is indicated by the zero line test of the 5% Trend
2015-11-12 17:34:16 fib1618: and this will give the 10% Trend an opportunity to snapback toward the zero line
2015-11-12 17:34:39 fib1618: we did make it to $25 though [smile]
2015-11-12 17:35:10 fib1618: even if it was intraday on Friday
2015-11-12 17:35:16 fib1618: and look what happened since
2015-11-12 17:35:20 fib1618: again
2015-11-12 17:35:30 fib1618: one would think that if there was going to a raise in rates
2015-11-12 17:35:36 fib1618: the Financials would rally
2015-11-12 17:35:42 fib1618: and they're failing again
2015-11-12 17:35:46 fib1618: something is not right here
2015-11-12 17:35:59 fib1618: me thinks the market has a flu
2015-11-12 17:36:10 fib1618: and hurled today
2015-11-12 17:36:43 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO also found zero line resistance before moving sharply lower
2015-11-12 17:37:01 fib1618: as the XLV breadth MCSUM couldn't make it past the +750 level
2015-11-12 17:37:20 fib1618: boy...things might not "fall apart" here for a couple of weeks
2015-11-12 17:37:23 fib1618: but if this keeps up
2015-11-12 17:37:31 fib1618: December is not going to be a good month
2015-11-12 17:38:06 fib1618: after breaking below the range of its complex bullish structure on Friday
2015-11-12 17:38:16 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCO has now moved sharply lower as well
2015-11-12 17:38:25 fib1618: so much so
2015-11-12 17:38:41 fib1618: that it wasn't able to fully snapback to its zero line before extending the losses today
2015-11-12 17:38:51 fib1618: this is the sign of a very weak marketplace
2015-11-12 17:39:06 fib1618: and since the XLI is closely related to the Dow Industrials and Transports
2015-11-12 17:39:23 fib1618: this isn't singing "Don't Worry, Be Happy" to any of us
2015-11-12 17:40:17 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO continues to remain under pressure
2015-11-12 17:40:36 fib1618: as it broke below its October lows on Friday
2015-11-12 17:40:49 fib1618: no...looks like Monday
2015-11-12 17:41:05 fib1618: still holding above the end September lows though
2015-11-12 17:41:31 fib1618: but with the broader market already challenging this comparable area already
2015-11-12 17:41:47 fib1618: it's a pretty good bet that we'll see a break here as well
2015-11-12 17:41:47 fib1618: again
2015-11-12 17:41:51 fib1618: the important MCO low is the August one
2015-11-12 17:41:58 fib1618: it MUST hold here
2015-11-12 17:42:05 fib1618: or we'll have an intermediate term price top in place
2015-11-12 17:42:16 fib1618: though as sloppy as it might be
2015-11-12 17:42:24 fib1618: it is what it is
2015-11-12 17:42:45 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO got clobbered today
2015-11-12 17:43:01 fib1618: finishing the day with a -82
2015-11-12 17:43:18 fib1618: please note
2015-11-12 17:43:22 fib1618: that in all cases
2015-11-12 17:43:31 fib1618: any tops we saw on Tuesday
2015-11-12 17:43:39 fib1618: where we didn't get upside follow through on Wednesday
2015-11-12 17:43:51 fib1618: now serve as our "blip resistance" points in all of the breadth MCO's
2015-11-12 17:43:58 fib1618: so until this level is taken out
2015-11-12 17:44:15 fib1618: the market will continue to be heavily biased on the sell side
2015-11-12 17:45:02 fib1618: and the XLU breadth MCO accomplished what we thought it would do last week
2015-11-12 17:45:09 fib1618: with a solid snapback to the zero line
2015-11-12 17:45:40 fib1618: and now it's moved back into negative territory
2015-11-12 17:46:02 fib1618: chart wise
2015-11-12 17:46:08 fib1618: and correct me if I'm wrong
2015-11-12 17:47:02 fib1618: but the downside price target of around $42 that we talked about last Thursday was hit the next day
2015-11-12 17:47:12 fib1618: and this basket has rallied since
2015-11-12 17:47:18 fib1618: again
2015-11-12 17:47:45 fib1618: this is rather odd behavior if interest rates were about to move higher
2015-11-12 17:47:56 fib1618: so we'll call it a technical bounce for now
2015-11-12 17:48:09 rite01: XLU outside range today -- could mean down day tomorrow
2015-11-12 17:48:27 fib1618: yes...it had a hard reversal
2015-11-12 17:48:48 fib1618: and it wouldn't be a surprise at all if we now challenge the lows of August
2015-11-12 17:49:02 fib1618: hmmmm...
2015-11-12 17:49:05 fib1618: looks like we have a double top there
2015-11-12 17:49:06 fib1618: one sec
2015-11-12 17:50:09 fib1618: yes...daily volume confirms that it's a double top
2015-11-12 17:50:46 fib1618: downside target on a break of the late August lows is around $36
2015-11-12 17:51:16 fib1618: something that may be of interest
2015-11-12 17:51:22 rite01: Thanks....
2015-11-12 17:51:23 fib1618: bring up a chart of the XLU
2015-11-12 17:51:33 fib1618: and apply a 20, 50 and 200 day EMA to it
2015-11-12 17:51:43 fib1618: and look at the way prices played off these EMA's
2015-11-12 17:52:16 fib1618: absolutely astounding
2015-11-12 17:52:30 rite01: yes I see it
2015-11-12 17:52:35 fib1618: with today's reversal coming right at the 50 day EMA
2015-11-12 17:52:47 fib1618: as a chartist
2015-11-12 17:52:53 fib1618: this is bearish price action
2015-11-12 17:53:08 fib1618: so...
2015-11-12 17:53:22 fib1618: in what we were hoping was for a 2 week consolidation
2015-11-12 17:53:29 fib1618: has now morphed into something more
2015-11-12 17:53:37 fib1618: and because of this
2015-11-12 17:53:48 fib1618: a full defensive posture should be taken toward equities
2015-11-12 17:54:08 fib1618: until we get more information on what is likely to happen into the end of the year
2015-11-12 17:54:13 fib1618: let's check the OBV's
2015-11-12 17:54:50 fib1618: CVI's are climactic
2015-11-12 17:55:11 fib1618: so let's look for a price bottom in next two trading sessions
2015-11-12 17:55:34 fib1618: STVO's are now "oversold"
2015-11-12 17:55:48 fib1618: VTO's are now finally backing off from their "overbought" levels
2015-11-12 17:56:10 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 2.19
2015-11-12 17:56:27 fib1618: Open 10 is now at 1.12
2015-11-12 17:56:31 fib1618: now...
2015-11-12 17:56:36 fib1618: if the MCO's were more appealing
2015-11-12 17:56:46 fib1618: this daily 2.19 TRIN would indicate a bottom
2015-11-12 17:56:54 fib1618: could be a near term one
2015-11-12 17:57:07 fib1618: but nothing that would say "we're done"
2015-11-12 17:57:21 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .94
2015-11-12 17:57:37 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2015-11-12 17:57:52 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.16
2015-11-12 17:58:01 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.06
2015-11-12 17:58:14 fib1618: so not enough to keep prices from moving even lower
2015-11-12 17:58:22 fib1618: but enough to keep them from cascading lower
2015-11-12 17:58:26 fib1618: which means
2015-11-12 17:58:34 fib1618: we can be sharply lower one day
2015-11-12 17:58:36 fib1618: and bounce
2015-11-12 17:58:42 fib1618: be choppy the next
2015-11-12 17:58:47 fib1618: and then sell off again
2015-11-12 17:59:10 fib1618: so...at this point
2015-11-12 17:59:22 fib1618: let's wait to see how the global breadth charts look this weekend
2015-11-12 17:59:24 fib1618: and from that
2015-11-12 17:59:47 fib1618: we should be able to pull together some sort of idea of the kind of pullback we're up against
2015-11-12 18:00:01 fib1618: but at this point..."defensive" is the word of the day
2015-11-12 18:00:06 fib1618: anything else?
2015-11-12 18:00:40 rite01: Great session tonight thank all
2015-11-12 18:00:44 rite01: thanks
2015-11-12 18:02:31 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-11-12 18:02:35 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-11-12 18:02:45 fib1618: everyone have a great weekend
2015-11-12 18:02:54 fib1618: and we'll do this again on Tuesday
2015-11-12 18:02:56 fib1618: good night


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