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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-11-11 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-11-11 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-11-11 16:00:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good, and how are you?
2010-11-11 16:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine and dandy
2010-11-11 16:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that sure was a wake up call you posted over at TT on the muni's
2010-11-11 16:01:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: Little trend line break in the MCO today. CSCO did not seem to bother the nya common stocks though
2010-11-11 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nah...after all...CSCO IS still a secondary stock
2010-11-11 16:01:46 [Message] darris -> Chat: Boy I sure am glad Randy organizes the data like he does!!!
2010-11-11 16:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he's amazing
2010-11-11 16:02:15 [Message] darris -> Chat: Every data set updated with component changes every day. wow
2010-11-11 16:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a wealth of data not found anywhere I would surmise
2010-11-11 16:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and he worked long and very hard in getting it
2010-11-11 16:02:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: I think Lowry's does something like that. big bucks though
2010-11-11 16:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know that Lowry's doesn't have the wealth that Randy does
2010-11-11 16:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can start with the Bonds and it took them until 2008 to get the commons
2010-11-11 16:03:44 [Message] darris -> Chat: I can not believe the second day in a row of the bond cefs getting slaughtered 1.45% again
2010-11-11 16:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was only because Tom made them to
2010-11-11 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CEF's?
2010-11-11 16:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the muni's
2010-11-11 16:04:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: The Bond CEFs!!! the Muni's are a good portion of the total, and they were probably killed again today
2010-11-11 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we'll see how it looks tomorrow
2010-11-11 16:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not worried at this juncture
2010-11-11 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-11-11 16:05:23 [Message] darris -> Chat: 30/240 breadth on the Bond cefs two days in a row
2010-11-11 16:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we'll have to see how it looks on the chart
2010-11-11 16:05:54 [Message] darris -> Chat: Let's get going and look at the MCO break today. thanks
2010-11-11 16:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you keep a chart of the bons or just the data??
2010-11-11 16:06:48 [Message] darris -> Chat: I probably do, but I do not think it is exactly like you post. I just see the price index chart dropping very sharply, and a bit different than we have seen for a year now
2010-11-11 16:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well we'll see if we've broken trend or not
2010-11-11 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our making new all time highs last week
2010-11-11 16:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take a dismal week, in total, to even test the line
2010-11-11 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always interesting when I upload the information on the weekends
2010-11-11 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I never know what I'm going to see
2010-11-11 16:08:04 [Message] darris -> Chat: 217/856 is the breadth totals for the week on the bond cefs so far
2010-11-11 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't sound bad - it's all relative, I guess
2010-11-11 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-11-11 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inside range day on the NYA
2010-11-11 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if there's predictive value or not given that we're not trending lower
2010-11-11 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after bouncing higher on Wednesday off the zero line, the CO NYSE breadth MCO is back to zero again
2010-11-11 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we remain neutral near term
2010-11-11 16:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this bouncing effect in and around the MCO zero line is giving us a horizontal shelf pattern on the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-11-11 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then...no break in trend as yet
2010-11-11 16:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains higher
2010-11-11 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the CO MCO components still well above their zero line suggesting this nothing but a correction
2010-11-11 16:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart wise
2010-11-11 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now fully snapped back to the April highs break out line
2010-11-11 16:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far...the test has been quite successful
2010-11-11 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with the added nudge from CSCO
2010-11-11 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, by the way, has been a fairly weak stock for months now
2010-11-11 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that, I'm kinda surprised at the way people are crying the blues with today's collapse
2010-11-11 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...things like this tend to happen (news driven events) when the market is in need of a correction
2010-11-11 16:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing that the NASDAQ Open 10 was "overbought"
2010-11-11 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure we'll see later on that we've taken care of that in quick order
2010-11-11 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back up to its zero line yesterday
2010-11-11 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO continued lower today
2010-11-11 16:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor
2010-11-11 16:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we are now testing the longer term rising bottoms line from the May lows
2010-11-11 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last time when we tested this line we held
2010-11-11 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will this time be different?
2010-11-11 16:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: history suggests that we're certainly due for a break
2010-11-11 16:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this time around we have a bit of added incentive for a break
2010-11-11 16:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that we have already broken the rising trend line on the NYSE breadth MCSUM last month
2010-11-11 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have now snapped back to this break of trend
2010-11-11 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also weren't able to move above the October highs on the MCSUM
2010-11-11 16:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this may be a better chance for this extension of the short term trend to ease off a little
2010-11-11 16:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, would be highly beneficial for the market longer term
2010-11-11 16:20:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: Also still having a heck of a time clearing the "brother" mcsum gap resistance I lobbied for last month
2010-11-11 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a runner walking up a hill instead of racing up it
2010-11-11 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...you have lobbied hard and strong
2010-11-11 16:21:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: I noticed the annotation this week for the NASDAQ version
2010-11-11 16:21:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: thanks
2010-11-11 16:21:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: you left it out for the nyse version
2010-11-11 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem...
2010-11-11 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..half is OK?
2010-11-11 16:21:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: Sure
2010-11-11 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't make the charts too busy
2010-11-11 16:22:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: This recent top on mcsum also came right at the variant downtrend line I posted last month
2010-11-11 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to be able to convey thoughts without being too overwhelming..
2010-11-11 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...yes...
2010-11-11 16:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we breakdown here...I will adjust the line to "fit"
2010-11-11 16:22:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: Only using the March April tops
2010-11-11 16:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you know why the line is placed as it is
2010-11-11 16:23:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes you told me
2010-11-11 16:23:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: It goes back to earlier peaks
2010-11-11 16:23:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: not seen on the chart
2010-11-11 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer and stronger line is the preferred
2010-11-11 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-11-11 16:23:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: agree
2010-11-11 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2010-11-11 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to see if the NYSE breadth MCO will once again hold the -25 level
2010-11-11 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and change this snapback idea to that of a more prolonged correctional period
2010-11-11 16:24:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: what do you make of the drop below zero, snapback to zero and than down even further today?
2010-11-11 16:25:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: and only a simple pattern with no texture above zero this go around
2010-11-11 16:26:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: and to my ruler on the monitor, the mco did break the uptrend line by just a bit.
2010-11-11 16:26:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: only about 3-4 points though
2010-11-11 16:27:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: what do you think Lew?
2010-11-11 16:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know if splitting hairs is helpful on a trendline break
2010-11-11 16:27:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm with you, Doc
2010-11-11 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...remember that two weeks ago we also broke below the rising trendline on the MCO
2010-11-11 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not an exact science here, but we do the best we can
2010-11-11 16:28:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: true, what about the patterns i mentioned above though
2010-11-11 16:28:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the back testing bothers me most for the bullish case, Doc
2010-11-11 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do I think?
2010-11-11 16:28:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: what do you make of the drop below zero, snapback to zero and than down even further today?
2010-11-11 16:29:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: and only a simple pattern with no texture above zero this go around
2010-11-11 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think that it could be a bearish sign....especially with the way the MCSUM is acting here
2010-11-11 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could be a cycle low
2010-11-11 16:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be part of the snapback
2010-11-11 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be a pause to refresh
2010-11-11 16:29:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: there is a 2.5cycle low due Friday or Monday
2010-11-11 16:29:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at October
2010-11-11 16:29:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we not do the very same thing?
2010-11-11 16:29:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thks Doc-great to know
2010-11-11 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broke below the zero line
2010-11-11 16:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapped back
2010-11-11 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then tested the -25 level before moving back above zero
2010-11-11 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: context
2010-11-11 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: perspective
2010-11-11 16:30:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay another quick question
2010-11-11 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the rate speed in which two EMA's are moving either to or towards each other
2010-11-11 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be unreasonable to look for the market to constantly keeping its foot on the accelerator
2010-11-11 16:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will have to lift that foot from time to time just to avoid cramping
2010-11-11 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be different this time
2010-11-11 16:31:58 [Message] doc -> Chat: The divergent low of July was broken in August and nothing happened. Is it now still important to stay above one of those mco lows and if so which one?
2010-11-11 16:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lord knows we've been talking about a rest for over 2 months now
2010-11-11 16:32:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: talking only about the mco here
2010-11-11 16:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2010-11-11 16:33:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: July -53. August -67 and change
2010-11-11 16:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that only the NYSE CO and composite broke below the July lows
2010-11-11 16:34:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes, maybe that was the hook
2010-11-11 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would still be looking at the divergent lows of July...
2010-11-11 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2010-11-11 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be looking to see HOW we break down here
2010-11-11 16:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it be quick and neat or with texture?
2010-11-11 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2010-11-11 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're dealing with a whole different animal right now than what we've had to work with in the past
2010-11-11 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there is a tremendous amount of liquidity that is messing things up as to any complexity we will see going forward
2010-11-11 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm being very flexible here
2010-11-11 16:36:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and watching the pulse as it directly relates to the chart action
2010-11-11 16:36:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think that Darris has some info on this that a 5:1 negative breadth day tomor would take the mco to -55 and break the July divergent lows
2010-11-11 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I'll take his word for it
2010-11-11 16:36:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: by a hair split
2010-11-11 16:36:50 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is correct 500/2500 put into the formula for tomorrow will yield -55 mco
2010-11-11 16:37:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: not saying that it's going to happen
2010-11-11 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well we'll have to cross that bridge if we get to it
2010-11-11 16:37:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: just being aware is useful info
2010-11-11 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you for that
2010-11-11 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no change for the MCO on Friday would be a +106
2010-11-11 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback for Friday is +1318
2010-11-11 16:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for the bulls, the EMA's are against them now
2010-11-11 16:38:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: are you more worried tomor if we simply break -25
2010-11-11 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems that it wouldn't take as much as 5:1 negative to get there...but it is what it is
2010-11-11 16:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not worried
2010-11-11 16:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know many are worried but I don't know why at this juncture
2010-11-11 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every little fracture is causing a large amount of angst here
2010-11-11 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it happens...we'll deal with it
2010-11-11 16:39:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Can this be a wave 4 started. Some stories about sovereign debt troubles in Europe resurfaced this week. E.g. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AA21220101111
2010-11-11 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds, however, suggest that we are not in a position to really worry about it as yet
2010-11-11 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was one of the ideas from last week Tonny
2010-11-11 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that wave 3 had topped
2010-11-11 16:40:47 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The sovereign debt issues in Europe was what got us down in May I believe.
2010-11-11 16:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the closing of the gap in the NASDAQ
2010-11-11 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem to be a good idea for now
2010-11-11 16:41:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well I'm open to adding longs on a dip into Monday, but I'd like to see the mco back above zero and the mcsum to break the second gap resistance. Tight stops as you suggested are in order though.
2010-11-11 16:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: structurally, however, I wouldn't expect too much more
2010-11-11 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is clearly "overbought" on several levels
2010-11-11 16:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also continues to maintain a wall of worry
2010-11-11 16:42:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What would be the minimum retracement of a wave 4?
2010-11-11 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not discount this
2010-11-11 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .236 then .382
2010-11-11 16:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it really depends, though, on the degree of trend
2010-11-11 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is that we continue to be in a third wave structure of one degree or the other
2010-11-11 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we break...
2010-11-11 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say the -25 level on the MCO
2010-11-11 16:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain in this third wave structure
2010-11-11 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would watch the rhythm of the market
2010-11-11 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's pulse
2010-11-11 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it's tired
2010-11-11 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it would like a rest
2010-11-11 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like a addict on crystal meth
2010-11-11 16:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it be able to?
2010-11-11 16:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is the question at hand
2010-11-11 16:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will it get another fix
2010-11-11 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED continues to manufacture the meth
2010-11-11 16:45:22 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-11-11 16:45:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sadly
2010-11-11 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ALL of the financial classes are snorting away
2010-11-11 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both here and abroad
2010-11-11 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the emerging markets!
2010-11-11 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at gold!
2010-11-11 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SILVER!
2010-11-11 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see some sort of rest in the metals
2010-11-11 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that we're not going to see any kind of correction in the US markets
2010-11-11 16:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that has been the rhythm of the last few months
2010-11-11 16:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like a meth addict when his supply runs out
2010-11-11 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can be sure the markets will also crash
2010-11-11 16:47:24 [Message] darris -> Chat: 38% retracement on the spx is 1140 ish, and 24% 1175.
2010-11-11 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until then
2010-11-11 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just can't see a retracement below 1195 for now
2010-11-11 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price structure is just too strong
2010-11-11 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take something major to change this abruptly
2010-11-11 16:48:34 [Message] darris -> Chat: The Euro has been discounted for the Europena soverign debt issues in the head lines. 650 pips worth from recent high to low. This occurred at the Jan 2010 high before the spx dropped 10%
2010-11-11 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and each and every price structure is as unique as the other
2010-11-11 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: granted...we don't discount this kind of action
2010-11-11 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's nice information
2010-11-11 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it didn't do much today when the Euro crashed over night, did it?
2010-11-11 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this talk of a collapse last night...and nothing
2010-11-11 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-11-11 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold was up today, as well as, the dollar
2010-11-11 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we talked about resistance at the previous highs was probably all we were going to see?
2010-11-11 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed there today
2010-11-11 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but intraday...we had a sharp reversal right at those highs
2010-11-11 16:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worry...worry..worry...so much worry
2010-11-11 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next we'll start hearing about a dollar carry trade
2010-11-11 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you watch
2010-11-11 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before that it was "currency wars"
2010-11-11 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still
2010-11-11 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have broken above the April highs by and large
2010-11-11 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we've done is seen our obligatory snapback to that same line
2010-11-11 16:52:51 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is why I pointed out what happened leading into the Jan 2010 correction. the Euro decline was already in full force. The point is to be Alert on what ever you are trading just in case. Every day a few weeks ago the spx was moving opposite the Dollar, and then last Friday it stopped. Currencies may or may not have any immediate bearing on equities. The Dollar or Euro moves with metals sometimes, but this move up this week was not consistent with the Dollar rising.
2010-11-11 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no, it wasn't
2010-11-11 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2010-11-11 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess
2010-11-11 16:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that all this talk about inversion would also be something to be alert about...but it doesn't always happen
2010-11-11 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold and the dollar up today
2010-11-11 16:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how can that be?
2010-11-11 16:54:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: problems in Europe suit both
2010-11-11 16:54:54 [Message] darris -> Chat: Unless you are trading every commodity and equities all at the same time you really do not have to worry about anything else other than what YOUR current exposure is. the rest is a distraction by the CNBC cheer leaders
2010-11-11 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2010-11-11 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and money flow knows everything we know...and more
2010-11-11 16:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it moves in bigger amounts
2010-11-11 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me upload a combo chart for a second
2010-11-11 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/goldcombo.png
2010-11-11 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only currency that isn't devaluating right now is the good old Swiss Franc
2010-11-11 16:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...any threats of war will NOT solve the problems
2010-11-11 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problems lie with all of the Reserve Banks
2010-11-11 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they are just as guilty when it comes to making their currency cheaper so that their assets will seem to grow in value
2010-11-11 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all media rubbish
2010-11-11 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pay no mind
2010-11-11 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the media is always looking for excuses so that they can keep their...ummm...superiority (?)
2010-11-11 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the right word...
2010-11-11 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch money
2010-11-11 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tell us when things are not going well
2010-11-11 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there will always be something to talk about
2010-11-11 17:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it's because I've heard all of this garbage before
2010-11-11 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug
2010-11-11 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being around these vipers for 40 years and you tend to hear the same things you've heard before
2010-11-11 17:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the pretty much the same outcomes
2010-11-11 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the markets duty to keep everyone from fully capitalizing on the trend
2010-11-11 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where or how this money comes from is secondary to the the fact that it's there for fuel
2010-11-11 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day...it will come back to bite us
2010-11-11 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until that day...we take it day by day
2010-11-11 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who really know me
2010-11-11 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am usually the very first to share when things are starting to change (or I like to think so)
2010-11-11 17:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually
2010-11-11 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I notice these things
2010-11-11 17:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I get many disbelievers
2010-11-11 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the way it goes
2010-11-11 17:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2010-11-11 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see nothing to disturb the uptrend
2010-11-11 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price does not lead breadth
2010-11-11 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth leads price
2010-11-11 17:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will exit well before we make an important turn (look at Muni's)
2010-11-11 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has before...and more than likely...it will again
2010-11-11 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: faith
2010-11-11 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: personally...I either laugh or curse what I hear on the business channels
2010-11-11 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lately...it's like...I don't know where these people get their credentials to spew out the amount of garbage I keep hearing
2010-11-11 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see how the full court press this week on how the FED is so evil with this repurchase program?
2010-11-11 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the left....
2010-11-11 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the right
2010-11-11 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nobody likes it
2010-11-11 17:07:39 [Message] doc -> Chat: charts?
2010-11-11 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not saying its a good thing
2010-11-11 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: charts?
2010-11-11 17:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what charts?
2010-11-11 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-11 17:07:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lol
2010-11-11 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....I get the message
2010-11-11 17:08:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: we don't need no stinking charts
2010-11-11 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will shut up now
2010-11-11 17:08:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: lol
2010-11-11 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no more philosophical talk
2010-11-11 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2010-11-11 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line
2010-11-11 17:08:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: np
2010-11-11 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone PLEASE take a deep breath here
2010-11-11 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amount of anxiety over the last two months has been unprecedented
2010-11-11 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I realize all your concerns
2010-11-11 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I FEEL all of your concerns
2010-11-11 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must remain neutral here
2010-11-11 17:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the internals start to breakdown
2010-11-11 17:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can worry
2010-11-11 17:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until then
2010-11-11 17:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's something to acknowledge...but we can't trade on it
2010-11-11 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm moving on now
2010-11-11 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2010-11-11 17:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the dollar
2010-11-11 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's do or die for the bulls...right here...right now
2010-11-11 17:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they don't hold these levels
2010-11-11 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next stop will be 72
2010-11-11 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Lew
2010-11-11 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: irregular flat close to completion on the Dollar
2010-11-11 17:11:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, does look like
2010-11-11 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2010-11-11 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it FEELS like it
2010-11-11 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the news
2010-11-11 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the EURO, etc.
2010-11-11 17:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what I've learned over the years
2010-11-11 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: changes in the direction in the majority of trends are done with a whimper and not with a blast
2010-11-11 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving back above the zero line on Wednesday
2010-11-11 17:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved to lower lows today
2010-11-11 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this continues to occur right as the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is right up against the magical +500 level
2010-11-11 17:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components remain above zero
2010-11-11 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're still in a correction in an uptrend
2010-11-11 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if we sell off tomorrow
2010-11-11 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely
2010-11-11 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the MCO components will find support in and around their zero lines
2010-11-11 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2010-11-11 17:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then see a day or two bounce
2010-11-11 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that happens
2010-11-11 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN we can make plans on how to possible make some money on that
2010-11-11 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2010-11-11 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2010-11-11 17:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that even if we do continue to see the speed of the A/D trend continue to slow
2010-11-11 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM's are high enough...the distance between the 19 and 39 day EMA's... are still wide enough that we're likely not to see too much in the way of price deterioration
2010-11-11 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just not a reasonable expectation
2010-11-11 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at today
2010-11-11 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: terrible open
2010-11-11 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ down...what...45 points?
2010-11-11 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we close down 23
2010-11-11 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much of the decline...as was the expectation...took place in the first 1/2 hour
2010-11-11 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run
2010-11-11 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a while before a trending move to the downside can even be considered
2010-11-11 17:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the only quirk being
2010-11-11 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: somebody making another keystroke error
2010-11-11 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as technicians...we can't anticipate that
2010-11-11 17:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we shouldn't in the future either
2010-11-11 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like they say..."stuff happens" from time to time
2010-11-11 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug
2010-11-11 17:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are you aware that the NDX is 6% above its April highs now?
2010-11-11 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many sellers do you think are out there now that we have moved above a point of resistance as we have?
2010-11-11 17:20:07 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: At the time of the May 6 decline the NYSE Composite components were already well below the zero line. Could that not explain the sudden decline?
2010-11-11 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a weakening effect
2010-11-11 17:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's a good point
2010-11-11 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-11-11 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were already showing trend decay for a month before May decline took place
2010-11-11 17:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not now
2010-11-11 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things take time to develop
2010-11-11 17:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know how many times the market has proved this point to us in these chats
2010-11-11 17:21:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: we are at a critical point here. look at the oex mco. right at the uptrend line, below last two lows in Oct and challenging the early October lows.
2010-11-11 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-11-11 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO is now back to its zero line again
2010-11-11 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2010-11-11 17:22:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: it better bounce tomor
2010-11-11 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or?
2010-11-11 17:22:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: another notch in the deterioration of the internals
2010-11-11 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can say that everyday
2010-11-11 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right?
2010-11-11 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's always going to be deterioration after a thrust
2010-11-11 17:23:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure. just analytical here. we are overdue for a breather. nice to see it come up with the tools we review, that's all.
2010-11-11 17:23:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: maybe we can buy lower
2010-11-11 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...but saying it "better"...well..we're really not a critical point here
2010-11-11 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I bought today
2010-11-11 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see my Core's post?
2010-11-11 17:24:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes, housing
2010-11-11 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: surprised?
2010-11-11 17:25:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: haven't really had a chance to look into it
2010-11-11 17:25:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: what prompted you to allocate there?
2010-11-11 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we "better" bounce tomorrow...why would I even chance it?
2010-11-11 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-11 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chart is very similar to the XLF
2010-11-11 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the REIT A/D line looks constructive
2010-11-11 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2010-11-11 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one wants to own housing
2010-11-11 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2010-11-11 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting indications that the spring is going to see home price not only stabilize but rise
2010-11-11 17:26:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: wasn't price leading REIT ad line?
2010-11-11 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the sense of urgency to own becomes more widespread
2010-11-11 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bit
2010-11-11 17:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're constructive
2010-11-11 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not perfect
2010-11-11 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm working under the assumption that those sectors that lagged the advance, will now see their turn
2010-11-11 17:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-11-11 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: out of the defensive issues like we saw on Tuesday
2010-11-11 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is always looking for areas of undervaluation
2010-11-11 17:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the financials and housing fit that bill
2010-11-11 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-11-11 17:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether or not I get a good return or not...that I'm not sure
2010-11-11 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'll take 10%
2010-11-11 17:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...at $16 a share
2010-11-11 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is only 2 points
2010-11-11 17:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better than less than 1% in cash
2010-11-11 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/xhb111110.png
2010-11-11 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bullish configuration on the EMA's
2010-11-11 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: RSI remains above 50 meaning that the bulls are in control
2010-11-11 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the ratio to the SPX...it broke out, snapped back...and now moving higher
2010-11-11 17:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thorn comes with the ADX
2010-11-11 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'll take the risk...with a tight stop
2010-11-11 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: daily volume pattern is bullish
2010-11-11 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rising on up days
2010-11-11 17:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: decreasing on down days
2010-11-11 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll see how it goes
2010-11-11 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I waited a little longer on this one just to be sure
2010-11-11 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the action today suggested that we're going to see higher highs after the snapback to 16
2010-11-11 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe I'll get a test of the April highs?
2010-11-11 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug
2010-11-11 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-11-11 17:33:11 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: It did not get all the way back to 16 yet.
2010-11-11 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is dead neutral right now
2010-11-11 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rule is...
2010-11-11 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a snapback is either to OR towards the line of the breakout
2010-11-11 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you always will see me say this
2010-11-11 17:34:03 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-11-11 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it gets there, or close to, or beyond, is fully dependent on the internals of the market
2010-11-11 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are they friendly or hostile
2010-11-11 17:34:19 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: How do you know which one it is?
2010-11-11 17:34:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now, they remain friendly
2010-11-11 17:34:41 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: friendly or hostile?
2010-11-11 17:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh - easy peasy
2010-11-11 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's the internals...being either above or below MCSUM zero line
2010-11-11 17:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's a price pattern
2010-11-11 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it strictly depends on daily volume flows
2010-11-11 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never make this any more difficult than it is
2010-11-11 17:35:50 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK, I see Thanks!
2010-11-11 17:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problems today is that we have too much information to work with
2010-11-11 17:36:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: FWIW, the SPX mcsum is stuck at the top of the summation gap resistance. funny how the market moves.
2010-11-11 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it can confuse us as technicians
2010-11-11 17:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which one is better...etc.
2010-11-11 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it always is amazing ow that happens, isn't it Doc?
2010-11-11 17:36:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-11-11 17:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also are moving sideways just below the +1000 level
2010-11-11 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which one is more important?
2010-11-11 17:37:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer...they both are
2010-11-11 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one is based on one set of ideas
2010-11-11 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other on the nuance of the tool itself
2010-11-11 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we break down here
2010-11-11 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where do you think we should see our first support in the SPX breadth MCSUM?
2010-11-11 17:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it simple
2010-11-11 17:38:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: let me look
2010-11-11 17:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where was our prior support??
2010-11-11 17:39:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm on a 3 year of oex
2010-11-11 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look closer
2010-11-11 17:39:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: 750
2010-11-11 17:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2010-11-11 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you don't have to list them all
2010-11-11 17:39:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: prev resistance earlier
2010-11-11 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and snapback support - there you go
2010-11-11 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: simple
2010-11-11 17:39:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: rule of 250s
2010-11-11 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go (I like that)
2010-11-11 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we break below this level
2010-11-11 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's to worry?
2010-11-11 17:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll worry when we get there
2010-11-11 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM as high as it is right now
2010-11-11 17:40:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: the market is in a default bear market, you should always worry
2010-11-11 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any intraday decline is highly likely to be absorbed
2010-11-11 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is
2010-11-11 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when the bear is drowning in the lake
2010-11-11 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the lake recedes
2010-11-11 17:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bear is either a good swimmer, or he'll drown
2010-11-11 17:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2010-11-11 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I ask everyone to take a simple look at this and apply a 19 day and 39 day EMA to any price chart
2010-11-11 17:42:13 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: the 750 level on OEX MCSUM is also where the trendline of the rising bottoms sit
2010-11-11 17:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you've done this long enough
2010-11-11 17:42:39 [Message] doc -> Chat: and check out the mco tonny
2010-11-11 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know that the price action will tend to trend in the path of least resistance until these two EMA's move close together
2010-11-11 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-11-11 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX and OEX have been joined at the hip for some time now
2010-11-11 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market IS in sync here
2010-11-11 17:43:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: subtle differences
2010-11-11 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is another reason why that the bears have a lot of work to do here just to break these lines of defense by the bulls
2010-11-11 17:43:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: the oex mco has broken below the late oct lows
2010-11-11 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it has
2010-11-11 17:44:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nas 5 and 10 don't look that safe to me, twt
2010-11-11 17:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it could be problematic because of the nice looking double top price structure
2010-11-11 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCO is testing its October lows now
2010-11-11 17:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2010-11-11 17:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that during strongly trending moves
2010-11-11 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is minimal extremes to provide a bottom
2010-11-11 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like in October
2010-11-11 17:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like the +250 and -250 levels in the MCSUM
2010-11-11 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to see if the snapback holds or not
2010-11-11 17:46:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes but the long term uptrend line is clearly broken
2010-11-11 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know by Tuesday
2010-11-11 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-11-11 17:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the level of the Dow breadth MCSUM is...
2010-11-11 17:46:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: nosebleed
2010-11-11 17:46:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: peaked and turning down like the April top
2010-11-11 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what happened to the XLU price pattern (as a recent example) after it started to decline from its nosebleed territory?
2010-11-11 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-11 17:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wish we can put that April top behind us
2010-11-11 17:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't even compare the two
2010-11-11 17:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the MCO
2010-11-11 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you really compare the two periods (April and now)?
2010-11-11 17:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MID price pattern looks like its about to breakout to the upside
2010-11-11 17:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete
2010-11-11 17:49:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: On all these mco charts, there is one unifying theme that suggests a degree of caution. That is the very simple and short lived pattern above the zero line this go around.
2010-11-11 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line test on the MID breadth MCO
2010-11-11 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have a better caution
2010-11-11 17:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't like the way we broke out to new highs last week...just to see an equal and opposite effect this week
2010-11-11 17:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I still don't have a sell here
2010-11-11 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's another "shot" if anything
2010-11-11 17:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm fully aware of what you're sharing here
2010-11-11 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get a sell
2010-11-11 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just something to respect...but not fixate on in anticipation that this time will, indeed, be different
2010-11-11 17:51:21 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: What did you not like about the break out last week? Sorry, did not get that
2010-11-11 17:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the Dow breadth MCO
2010-11-11 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw a contracting back and forth movement in the MCO within the zero line for 2-3 weeks
2010-11-11 17:52:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the breakout from this congestion period should have seen good follow through with fresh money
2010-11-11 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't get that
2010-11-11 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we did get was an equal an opposite move which basically nullifies this breakout
2010-11-11 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...granted
2010-11-11 17:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CSCO is in the Dow
2010-11-11 17:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (why it is makes no sense to me...but it is what it is)
2010-11-11 17:53:20 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Thanks
2010-11-11 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could put on thumb on the data
2010-11-11 17:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is why it's important that we look at the broadest range to work with
2010-11-11 17:53:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: but you see the same simple mco structure in all of the charts, not only the dow
2010-11-11 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do that
2010-11-11 17:54:04 [Message] darris -> Chat: Cisco in the Dow because GM or one of the banks in the 2008 crash had to be taken out.
2010-11-11 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Dow moved above the October highs
2010-11-11 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO only tested those highs
2010-11-11 17:54:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: april highs
2010-11-11 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has not broken below the previous range...it's a matter of amplitude
2010-11-11 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2010-11-11 17:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but why a NASDAQ stock?
2010-11-11 17:54:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: spx broke above
2010-11-11 17:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tell me
2010-11-11 17:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what have any of the NASDAQ stocks done for the Dow over the last 10 years?
2010-11-11 17:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing
2010-11-11 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero
2010-11-11 17:55:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: NASDAQ also broke above that day
2010-11-11 17:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just trend sideways to down
2010-11-11 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh
2010-11-11 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: play it the way you want
2010-11-11 17:55:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: aapl would be "a bit" different than csco, lol
2010-11-11 17:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no sell signals here
2010-11-11 17:56:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: All I'm saying is that the concern you shared with us for the dow applies to the nasdaq and spx breakout as well.
2010-11-11 17:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but AAPL IS the economy
2010-11-11 17:56:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: It wasn't only csco
2010-11-11 17:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand Doc
2010-11-11 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2010-11-11 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just watch the -25 level on the TM and the RA data
2010-11-11 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break
2010-11-11 17:57:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then see a snapback to the zero line
2010-11-11 17:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we break
2010-11-11 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that might mean something to the price action
2010-11-11 17:57:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: or its just the Hurst 2.5 wk low
2010-11-11 17:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...it's a hold
2010-11-11 17:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever
2010-11-11 17:57:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: lol
2010-11-11 17:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't care
2010-11-11 17:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-11 17:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah right
2010-11-11 17:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going have fun going over this transcript tomorrow
2010-11-11 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow volume Oscillators are now neutral
2010-11-11 17:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's with the rest are neutral
2010-11-11 17:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now getting close to neutral
2010-11-11 17:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we're neutral...one side is about to take control
2010-11-11 18:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that it's likely to see a bounce off the zero line first
2010-11-11 18:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would suspect that we're going to have an up close tomorrow
2010-11-11 18:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .89
2010-11-11 18:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89
2010-11-11 18:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (yawn - neutral)
2010-11-11 18:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 55 day SMA is in nosebleed territory
2010-11-11 18:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher than April now
2010-11-11 18:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.12
2010-11-11 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was over 2.00 earlier today
2010-11-11 18:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...
2010-11-11 18:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10, however, is at .94
2010-11-11 18:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice job!
2010-11-11 18:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.07
2010-11-11 18:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2010-11-11 18:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-11-11 18:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not "overbought" anymore
2010-11-11 18:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sentiment is skittish
2010-11-11 18:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: smells like a bottom
2010-11-11 18:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what do I know!?!?
2010-11-11 18:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-11-11 18:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another day like today...and that would set a good floor
2010-11-11 18:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2010-11-11 18:04:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: Futures down for now
2010-11-11 18:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best option is that we have finished a snapback to the previous breakout area
2010-11-11 18:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have the futures really meant anything until Europe opens of late?
2010-11-11 18:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-11-11 18:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Europe holds the cards here
2010-11-11 18:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our dollar so cheap
2010-11-11 18:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're the buyers here
2010-11-11 18:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until...they stop
2010-11-11 18:05:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: Close to the lows of today already, FWIW
2010-11-11 18:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-11-11 18:05:09 [Message] darris -> Chat: Well we have the low side being taken care of this evening in the futures markets as we are 2 pts above the recent lows, or ES 1203.75 and that is about 1207 cash
2010-11-11 18:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should put a scare in
2010-11-11 18:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see
2010-11-11 18:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing...
2010-11-11 18:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1207?
2010-11-11 18:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a test
2010-11-11 18:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of it is follow through with Asia
2010-11-11 18:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how things look in the morning
2010-11-11 18:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-11-11 18:06:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: Thanks for the road map, Fib. Clearly laid out and reasonable. Let's see where the money flow leads from here.
2010-11-11 18:06:44 [Message] darris -> Chat: It was mainly the Nikkei morning session close, but you are right to gauge what Europe does, as Asia is minor compared to Europe as far as ES moves go
2010-11-11 18:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tonny...you need to get some sleep!
2010-11-11 18:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also of note
2010-11-11 18:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that China's economy seems to be picking up
2010-11-11 18:07:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Most of the real moves start 3-5AM CST
2010-11-11 18:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it's getting its business from is debatable
2010-11-11 18:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are the engine here
2010-11-11 18:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-11-11 18:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1:00 on the Pacific coast is when I see things start to move...after the FTSE opens at midnight
2010-11-11 18:08:15 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: sure
2010-11-11 18:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when do you sleep anyway?
2010-11-11 18:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-11 18:08:44 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: sure
2010-11-11 18:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is it now...after 2?
2010-11-11 18:08:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: It is 3 AM
2010-11-11 18:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-11-11 18:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...thanks for staying up with us!
2010-11-11 18:09:19 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: My pleasure
2010-11-11 18:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you only trade the US markets then?
2010-11-11 18:09:33 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Yes
2010-11-11 18:09:47 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I sleep late tomorrow
2010-11-11 18:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so you can sleep in the mornings...nice life!
2010-11-11 18:09:57 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I work from home
2010-11-11 18:10:12 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Not too busy
2010-11-11 18:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well...I appreciate your views from the other side of the pond...thanks
2010-11-11 18:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure we all do
2010-11-11 18:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....anything else?
2010-11-11 18:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's see if we can make it through the weekend without getting broadsided
2010-11-11 18:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2010-11-11 18:11:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: you too
2010-11-11 18:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2010-11-11 18:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-11-11 18:11:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto
2010-11-11 18:11:38 [Message] darris -> Chat: Have a good evening, and weekend. Thanks for the review tonight.

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