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Technical Watch > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 11/1/11
 
 


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fib_1618

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Posted Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-01 16:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-11-01 16:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-01 16:00:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a week, huh?
2011-11-01 16:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is getting to be like trading commodities
2011-11-01 16:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-11-01 16:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK - let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-11-01 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to a slightly higher high on Thursday
2011-11-01 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now moved sharply to the downside and now has a reading of -26
2011-11-01 16:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the kind of thing in which classic "buy spike" signals flourish
2011-11-01 16:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could be one of those times with all of the background fundamentals at the current time
2011-11-01 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-11-01 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see the that 10% Index is slightly below its zero line
2011-11-01 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a near term bounce off this same line of neutrality is the next technical expectation
2011-11-01 16:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the 5% component is still above its zero line
2011-11-01 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this two day pullback can only be classified as correctional activity
2011-11-01 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2011-11-01 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with Thursday's session
2011-11-01 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likely scenario discussed was for an inside range day on Friday
2011-11-01 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a sharp sell off to or towards the previous lines of overhead resistance
2011-11-01 16:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so up until today, things were working out well
2011-11-01 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the double whammy of poor politics and poor hedge fund management hit the tape just after midnight
2011-11-01 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was just too much for the participants to bear
2011-11-01 16:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went today
2011-11-01 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is important, however, to note that we don't have any confirmation as yet of a reversal here
2011-11-01 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we might be looking at is an accentuated snapback
2011-11-01 16:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be a somewhat reasonable expectation given the amplitude and robust nature of the rally for much of the October period
2011-11-01 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as one of Newton's laws of motion states
2011-11-01 16:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction
2011-11-01 16:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's a good example of how this works in practice
2011-11-01 16:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-01 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and surprise, surprise
2011-11-01 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are finding near term resistance here right at the +500 level
2011-11-01 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a level in which we've been working with for the last 4 weeks as far as both targets for the MCSUM and the need for this overhead resistance area to be violated so that we can be "in the clear"
2011-11-01 16:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's see how the broader composite is doing in all this
2011-11-01 16:20:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here
2011-11-01 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO did move below the zero line today
2011-11-01 16:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components that make up this MCO is well above their zero line suggesting this to be nothing more than a shake out of the weak hands who decided in the last week or so that the lows were probably in and to switch to the long side
2011-11-01 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for this MCSUM
2011-11-01 16:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's "in the clear" area is above the +750 level
2011-11-01 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today we closed at the +567 level
2011-11-01 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be part of a small snapback here
2011-11-01 16:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could be that we're in the process of producing an inverted ledge formation
2011-11-01 16:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2011-11-01 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2011-11-01 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the initial energy created by the early October thrust was close to shutting down
2011-11-01 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we had some confirmation of this yesterday
2011-11-01 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have no doubt about this happening today
2011-11-01 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2011-11-01 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our forward motion continues in spite of not having our foot on the accelerator
2011-11-01 16:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2011-11-01 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the rising bottoms line that was controlling the price pattern from the 10/4 lows was violated today
2011-11-01 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we closed back within the horizontal trading range that was produced by the EU situation
2011-11-01 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also good to remember
2011-11-01 16:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the window given by the NYSE breadth MCSUM back in July (as far as the timing of our next bottom is concerned) extended from late September to early November
2011-11-01 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point, this might be the final gasp by the bears before they move into hibernation for the next 2-3 months
2011-11-01 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the other charts look
2011-11-01 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice looking "island reversal" top on the NASDAQ price chart
2011-11-01 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both the NASDAQ breadth MCO and its components are now below their zero lines
2011-11-01 16:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM having some issues moving above the important April highs
2011-11-01 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and structure wise on the price chart
2011-11-01 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and throwing in a bit of Elliott here
2011-11-01 16:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be that we may completed an irregular flat with Thursday's highs
2011-11-01 16:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the internals don't quite agree with this observation
2011-11-01 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I will throw it out there for digestion
2011-11-01 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-11-01 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-11-01 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rising bottoms line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM remains intact so far
2011-11-01 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll need to see the bulls step up tomorrow or a full zero line snapback should be anticipated
2011-11-01 16:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM topped out at the +639 level
2011-11-01 16:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with its rising bottoms line intersecting around the +300 level
2011-11-01 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news here for the bulls
2011-11-01 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the NDX breadth MCO is now minimally "oversold"
2011-11-01 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-11-01 16:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% component remains above its zero line
2011-11-01 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the technical expectation here is for a near term bounce
2011-11-01 16:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we'll have to see what happens after that
2011-11-01 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of cross currents here
2011-11-01 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a probable vote in Greece coming before Friday
2011-11-01 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the US jobs numbers also coming out the rest of the week as well
2011-11-01 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be entertaining, that's for sure
2011-11-01 16:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also moved below its zero line today
2011-11-01 16:37:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components have not at this point in time
2011-11-01 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice where this is all occurring on the SPX breadth MCSUM...right at major resistance at the +750 level
2011-11-01 16:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO is also "oversold"
2011-11-01 16:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but its components are not
2011-11-01 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again we see that this MCSUM pattern is being turned away at its major resistance point of the +1000 level
2011-11-01 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same exact thing with the Dow breadth MCO and it's MCSUM
2011-11-01 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that on the SPX, OEX, and Dow charts that have now completed our minimal snapback to what was their horizontal trading levels today
2011-11-01 16:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be noted that we also got another very low reading on the ISEE today... 67
2011-11-01 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add to the pot that this is (turnaround) Tuesday
2011-11-01 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a bounce higher from here seems to be the best plan for the near term
2011-11-01 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether the bulls can add to this same bounce will be known fairly quickly
2011-11-01 16:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO is also back below its zero line
2011-11-01 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it also broke below the rising bottoms line that had been controlling that pattern for the last 3 months
2011-11-01 16:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MID breadth MCSUM
2011-11-01 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we alluded to many times in the past
2011-11-01 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this full stop is all taking place at some pretty important resistance levels - +750
2011-11-01 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next couple of days will be a character moment for the bulls
2011-11-01 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is this but a pause in the trend?
2011-11-01 16:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or have we've gone as far as we can go right now?
2011-11-01 16:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the large cap indices
2011-11-01 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID price pattern has also snapped back to its previous horizontal range
2011-11-01 16:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also snapped back to what was its previous declining tops line connecting the August and September tops
2011-11-01 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too, a near term bounce is indicated
2011-11-01 16:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less how far and how fast we've come in the last two days deserves some type of reflex
2011-11-01 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note is that the MID MCO components have yet to break below their zero line
2011-11-01 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so corrective activity remains the main focus here for now
2011-11-01 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the SML data
2011-11-01 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we remain slightly weaker here overall compared to the MID data
2011-11-01 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the SML price pattern did, indeed, find it hard going above the 420 level which provided 6 month support earlier in the year
2011-11-01 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...snapback complete
2011-11-01 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're going to need to move above the April highs in the MCSUM if we're going to see any further gains above this same 420 price level
2011-11-01 16:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best news for the bulls comes with the TM breadth MCO
2011-11-01 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which not only moved just below its zero line while its components did not
2011-11-01 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the rising bottoms line controlling the pattern on this MCO remains intact
2011-11-01 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-01 16:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really got ambushed by the bears over the last couple of days
2011-11-01 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but generally speaking, although the death toll may be high as a result, there is still enough buyers out there to take back the reigns here fairly quickly if they want to
2011-11-01 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE volume MCO
2011-11-01 16:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved back below the zero line
2011-11-01 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components have not
2011-11-01 16:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would again suggest corrective activity...a counter trend move
2011-11-01 16:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though the CO NYSE volume MCSUM is technically "in the clear" here pattern wise
2011-11-01 16:56:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is finding formidable resistance at the +500 level
2011-11-01 16:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it again will be very important for the longevity of the current uptrend in money flow that this +500 level on all of the MCSUM's is taken out to rid the market of its bear market default
2011-11-01 16:57:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so after such a lengthy move higher
2011-11-01 16:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pause to refresh is actually a pretty good idea health wise
2011-11-01 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we should be able to tell the difference between a friendly pause and that of a important top, in the next couple of days
2011-11-01 16:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MCO wise
2011-11-01 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important for the pattern to hold above its September lows
2011-11-01 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of these lows would then put the bears back into the drivers seat for a while
2011-11-01 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with all of the critical news coming as the week progresses, we must continue to execute good discipline in our trading
2011-11-01 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume looks to be in pretty good shape here after the last couple of days of shake out
2011-11-01 17:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components above their zero line
2011-11-01 17:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE volume MCSUM taking a breather after a 4 week advance
2011-11-01 17:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me
2011-11-01 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that the usual and customary time that the market either stays above or below the MCO zero line is for a 4-6 week period
2011-11-01 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in this area
2011-11-01 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds continue to mount for a 2-3 week pause to the current pattern fairly soon
2011-11-01 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the volume MCO data continues to show bearish divergent structures before the last couple of days of decline
2011-11-01 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a mixed bag of whether or how important these divergences are
2011-11-01 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have a lot of zero line tests on the MCO components here
2011-11-01 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making the bottom line for the bulls that they once again must belly up to the bar and make their intentions known on whether they're going to be able to hold support at these same levels or not
2011-11-01 17:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are not quite climactic as yet
2011-11-01 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're getting there
2011-11-01 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are no longer "overbought"
2011-11-01 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was a problem last Thursday along with the highly "overbought" VTO's
2011-11-01 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which are STILL "overbought" after the Dow has lost some 600 points in 3 days
2011-11-01 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.49
2011-11-01 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after having a 2.87 reading yesterday
2011-11-01 17:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so back to back 2.00 readings which, in strong uptrends, usually signify an important bottom
2011-11-01 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE open 10 at 1.04
2011-11-01 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so starting to get "oversold" now
2011-11-01 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.11
2011-11-01 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2011-11-01 17:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 2.42
2011-11-01 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being at 2.44 on Monday
2011-11-01 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2011-11-01 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-01 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next technical expectation here for the near term is for some sort of bounce higher
2011-11-01 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have relieved much of the highly "overbought" readings on many of the volume oscillators
2011-11-01 17:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we remain with a lot of bullish imbalance here that will need to be cleansed before we're likely to move forward with any kind of vigor
2011-11-01 17:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we have fulfilled snapbacks on several levels here
2011-11-01 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we have near term inconsistencies between the MCO's and their components right now
2011-11-01 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best overall blueprint for the next couple of days is for choppy, sideways behavior
2011-11-01 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market takes its time to digest the present currents controlling trader's opinions
2011-11-01 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bulls continuing to hold control on the intermediate term time frame for now
2011-11-01 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bears growling a bit on the same news that has kept them from running away all together
2011-11-01 17:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the P/C ratio indicators
2011-11-01 17:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CBOE remains bullish
2011-11-01 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Equities somewhat bearish
2011-11-01 17:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX also bullish...all on a 10 day moving average basis
2011-11-01 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the volatility indexes are back above their 20 day moving average
2011-11-01 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that the bears are currently in control of things
2011-11-01 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a shame too
2011-11-01 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since all were well below their support levels of 30 last Friday
2011-11-01 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then WHAM!
2011-11-01 17:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else on your minds?
2011-11-01 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well...until we get more information, that's about all there is to chat about
2011-11-01 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm going to end a little bit early
2011-11-01 17:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-11-01 17:26:44 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks
2011-11-01 17:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see if we get some near term clarity on this whole thing on Thursday
2011-11-01 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
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