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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-11-10 16:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-11-10 16:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-11-10 16:01:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thx
2011-11-10 16:01:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: And you?
2011-11-10 16:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that darn CVI indicator worked again!
2011-11-10 16:01:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet
2011-11-10 16:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine
2011-11-10 16:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully the last of the house cleaning is over with now
2011-11-10 16:02:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, gotta say, I'm not sure yet-being fairly careful here
2011-11-10 16:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got a 7 on the NYSE TRIN yesterday
2011-11-10 16:02:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2011-11-10 16:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not much in the way of movement on the Open 10...
2011-11-10 16:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yet
2011-11-10 16:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-11-10 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know
2011-11-10 16:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I tweeted a long position yesterday at 1227 cash with a  1225 stop
2011-11-10 16:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: someone had to step in
2011-11-10 16:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-10 16:05:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I saw the tweet
2011-11-10 16:05:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: broke my tweet cherry, LOL
2011-11-10 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hahaha
2011-11-10 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how's the newbie?
2011-11-10 16:06:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super!
2011-11-10 16:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to hear
2011-11-10 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-11-10 16:06:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for asking
2011-11-10 16:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those keeping score
2011-11-10 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now 3500 net advancing issues from all time highs on the NYAD line
2011-11-10 16:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bottoms above bottoms continue to control that pattern of money flow
2011-11-10 16:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here we go
2011-11-10 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving slightly below the zero line yesterday
2011-11-10 16:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO is now back into positive territory
2011-11-10 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's still not high enough to take out the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM highs of Tuesday as yet
2011-11-10 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so at this point
2011-11-10 16:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears seem to have had a "one day wonder"
2011-11-10 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is part and parcel of the kind of short and strong reflex snapbacks one sees in strongly trending advancing price structures
2011-11-10 16:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just when you notice them, they're close to or already complete
2011-11-10 16:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the job now for the bulls is for another day of stability so that the MCSUM can move to higher highs
2011-11-10 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not see sideways consolidation for longer than 2-3 days
2011-11-10 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2011-11-10 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we did not move below the zero line with yesterdays sell off
2011-11-10 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we know that it was corrective in nature
2011-11-10 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the path of least resistance remains higher in spite of the bear ambushes from time to time
2011-11-10 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2011-11-10 16:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also remained above the reaction lows of last week
2011-11-10 16:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but by a perceptive amount
2011-11-10 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important now that the bulls hold this area of "double support"
2011-11-10 16:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the idea of the Oscillator Buy Spike will be taken off the table
2011-11-10 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-11-10 16:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that yesterday's blip lower found support at the +700 level
2011-11-10 16:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was the area in which we touched upon as being an important level IF the MCSUM was going to be able to take out the significant overheard resistance above us at the +750 level
2011-11-10 16:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too, the MCO components remained above their zero line
2011-11-10 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making yesterday a day of buying at wholesale levels when no one really wanted anything to do with the product being offered
2011-11-10 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's components continue to have the same value prior to the fire sale
2011-11-10 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as in screaming "fire" in a theater full of people just so you can get the best seat in the house
2011-11-10 16:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO, however, did move to a lower low yesterday
2011-11-10 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing the short term implied weakness of the secondaries in general as measured by the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM itself being under the +250 level
2011-11-10 16:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components here and we did NOT move to lower lows
2011-11-10 16:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: causing internal divergence of the internals themselves
2011-11-10 16:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that we don't NEED a divergent MCO here in order for prices to remain in their upward direction
2011-11-10 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be nice to have one
2011-11-10 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't NEED it
2011-11-10 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more like an overthrow of selling than that of being one that could slow the rate of ascent and turn the trend in the other direction
2011-11-10 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2011-11-10 16:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have the same situation as we have with the composite data
2011-11-10 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here the daily NDX breadth MCO has maintained its higher low as well with the NDX breadth MCSUM above its zero line
2011-11-10 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and besides the interplay between this MCO and its components themselves
2011-11-10 16:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only are they suggesting corrective activity
2011-11-10 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're also likely to be choppy as well
2011-11-10 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-11-10 16:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see this choppy activity with its sideways movement
2011-11-10 16:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here again...it will now be very important for the bulls to keep the pressure on
2011-11-10 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest here
2011-11-10 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really the bears where the most amount of pressure remains right now
2011-11-10 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if they can't put together another hit either tomorrow or Monday, they will again lose anything they had going for them with yesterday's sell off
2011-11-10 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which as it happens
2011-11-10 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was not only WWW
2011-11-10 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was also a full moon, no less, in the constellation of Taurus....the bull
2011-11-10 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that this is out of the way
2011-11-10 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears really have to try extra hard here to hold their defense of these MCSUM resistance levels
2011-11-10 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the break beyond this defensive alignment will tend to be rather robust
2011-11-10 16:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as water would be when a dam breaks
2011-11-10 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the battle here is for pattern supremacy for the next couple of months
2011-11-10 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2011-11-10 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they can hold their ground
2011-11-10 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2011-11-10 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're back to moving sideways
2011-11-10 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, the bulls build on their foundation
2011-11-10 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move higher from here will probably be relentless in its structure
2011-11-10 16:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving slightly below the zero line yesterday
2011-11-10 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is back above zero again
2011-11-10 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has pushed the SPX breadth MCSUM to higher highs
2011-11-10 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the short term target remaining the +1000 level on the SPX breadth MCSUM before we're likely to see any exhaustion to the current money flow trend
2011-11-10 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also provides substantive proof that yesterday was a buy point for many
2011-11-10 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if there were more sellers than buyers
2011-11-10 16:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM would not be able to continue to trend higher as the MCO would remain below its zero line
2011-11-10 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not the case
2011-11-10 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to remember
2011-11-10 16:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the implied volatility still rather high here
2011-11-10 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to continue to have these breathtaking moves in both directions for awhile
2011-11-10 16:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least until we get back below the +20 level
2011-11-10 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line test was also successful with the OEX breadth MCO
2011-11-10 16:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX breadth MCSUM continues to make 18 month highs
2011-11-10 16:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice zero line test as well with the Dow breadth MCO
2011-11-10 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow breadth MCSUM now approaching its important May and February highs
2011-11-10 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're positive tomorrow
2011-11-10 16:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the May highs will be taken out
2011-11-10 16:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2011-11-10 16:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds will again increase that much more that we're on our way to new recovery price highs for the year
2011-11-10 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...just noticed
2011-11-10 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ and NDX had mid range closes today
2011-11-10 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the rest of the charts had inside range days
2011-11-10 16:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Wednesday being down
2011-11-10 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then Friday should see an up close
2011-11-10 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only question is
2011-11-10 16:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in not in the area of how much price wise
2011-11-10 16:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but how large of a spread will we see with the A/D data with this expected higher close
2011-11-10 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't watch prices here
2011-11-10 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch your breadth statistics
2011-11-10 16:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will lead prices
2011-11-10 16:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also know that
2011-11-10 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of the MCSUM's now within range of moving to yearly highs here
2011-11-10 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to see...no...we MUST have a watchful eye that money will continue to come in at such a rate where these same areas of resistance can be broken...or not
2011-11-10 16:38:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: how big do we want, 3 or 4 to 1?
2011-11-10 16:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they go...so will price
2011-11-10 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem here
2011-11-10 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that since we are well above the +750 level on many of the MCSUM's
2011-11-10 16:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes more and more difficult to see large plurality spreads in the A/D data
2011-11-10 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where before we would like to see 5:1 or 6:1 ratios
2011-11-10 16:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now all we want is more than..let's say...2:1
2011-11-10 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the math is such that even with narrow spreads like 3 or 4:1 that the MCO's will tend to move higher even with smaller and smaller pluralities...like a booster to perform a mid coarse correction
2011-11-10 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, yes, 3:1 would be great
2011-11-10 16:40:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2011-11-10 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything more and you can have a really high confidence that we're finally out of this whipsaw area
2011-11-10 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck
2011-11-10 16:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 7 TRIN?
2011-11-10 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of two things will happen with that kind of number in this position
2011-11-10 16:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first is that we will need to see a LARGER TRIN number to reverse the price trend outright (8 +)
2011-11-10 16:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what should happen here is that we have shaken out the last of the weak hands
2011-11-10 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at a much higher level than we would expect such a high TRIN number to even come up on the radar
2011-11-10 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess the other question is
2011-11-10 16:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much effect does computer trading have on days like yesterday?
2011-11-10 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will they tend to skew the analysis?
2011-11-10 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about the emotion of what's going on over in the Europe?
2011-11-10 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is something we see when we are, again, close to bottoming
2011-11-10 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick moment and look at the NYSE TRIN 3 year chart
2011-11-10 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the times the NYSE TRIN moved below 2.00 recently
2011-11-10 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from what I can see
2011-11-10 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from the July top
2011-11-10 16:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single reading above 2.00 was within trading hours of a price bottom
2011-11-10 16:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not days
2011-11-10 16:45:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we hit a 7?
2011-11-10 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keep in mind, we were neutral on the Open 10's on Tuesday
2011-11-10 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had the brief discussion that between that, and the volume oscillators, we might get a quick shake out to get things in a more proper configuration to extend the current rally
2011-11-10 16:47:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE TRIN today
2011-11-10 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reading is .87
2011-11-10 16:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10?
2011-11-10 16:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at 1.12
2011-11-10 16:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2011-11-10 16:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is known as "correcting on the fly"
2011-11-10 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you can change gears quickly without so much of the use of a clutch
2011-11-10 16:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that we have moved to "oversold" in less than 2 days
2011-11-10 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the idea here is that the during strong trending moves
2011-11-10 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all that is needed to keep the wall of worry intact
2011-11-10 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again
2011-11-10 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the excuse of what's been the problem since the summer highs remains the focal point of this same mechanism to "correct...on the fly"
2011-11-10 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while were here...
2011-11-10 16:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.11
2011-11-10 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.00
2011-11-10 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we still have a bit more room there
2011-11-10 16:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did you notice what the trigger was for the selling today in the NASDAQ?
2011-11-10 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trading issue that we went over many times as being something that would happen toward the END of the correction
2011-11-10 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that being
2011-11-10 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the leaders in the previous uptrend would then be used as the proxy that things may not be going as well as most would think
2011-11-10 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this particular case
2011-11-10 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL
2011-11-10 16:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: classic merchandising
2011-11-10 16:51:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dirty, LOL
2011-11-10 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what did the old fruit do today anyway?
2011-11-10 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down another 10
2011-11-10 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's only 2.55%
2011-11-10 16:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's lost 5% in two days
2011-11-10 16:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this market in the last year or so
2011-11-10 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would seem to be enough of a shake out
2011-11-10 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2011-11-10 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this technicals also broke down with today's move lower
2011-11-10 16:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...looks like a new leader will be handed the baton in this new price pattern sequence
2011-11-10 16:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-11-10 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that every sequence has its leaders
2011-11-10 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they are not likely to remain so on future patterns
2011-11-10 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money rotates to new areas of investment all dependent on the fundamental background
2011-11-10 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Apple it could be a simple case of seeing how things will be AFTER the holidays without Steve Jobs
2011-11-10 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the market discounts 3-4 months ahead
2011-11-10 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the holidays should remain good
2011-11-10 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after that....?
2011-11-10 16:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where is the iPhone 5 anyway?
2011-11-10 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: inquiring minds want to know!
2011-11-10 16:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OS is available
2011-11-10 16:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I downloaded it last week
2011-11-10 16:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far, stable
2011-11-10 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice new features
2011-11-10 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then they have been having trouble with the Sprint model with the new OS upgrade
2011-11-10 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of questions
2011-11-10 16:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but realistically, the stock has had a really nice run
2011-11-10 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's probably time for a pause to refresh
2011-11-10 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, any pause here will keep the bears chomping at the bit thinking that the market can't go higher without AAPL leading the way
2011-11-10 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see what happens
2011-11-10 16:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...TM TRIN at 1.05
2011-11-10 16:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2011-11-10 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears have some problems now
2011-11-10 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for as the Open 10 moves higher (lower)
2011-11-10 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more and more difficult it gets moving prices in their direction
2011-11-10 16:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's as high as they are anyway
2011-11-10 16:59:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't expect more than a one day wonder here before we find liquidity support
2011-11-10 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would be very careful shorting here
2011-11-10 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and really
2011-11-10 17:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way things have been going
2011-11-10 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way to make any money on the downside these days is shorting the overnight
2011-11-10 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for by the time New York opens, it's pretty much done
2011-11-10 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still wondering what hit the market in the afternoon yesterday that dropped prices as quickly as it did
2011-11-10 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my hunch it was computer driven
2011-11-10 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless...back to the breadth MCO's...the MID
2011-11-10 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also bounced higher today
2011-11-10 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't even worthy of a "dead cat bounce" of a move
2011-11-10 17:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're back above the zero line which is the important thing
2011-11-10 17:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking our line of vision to the components
2011-11-10 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we're well above the zero line
2011-11-10 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...no change of trend is noted
2011-11-10 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that yesterday was just another corrective move in the trend
2011-11-10 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the path of least resistance remains higher
2011-11-10 17:03:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Well-I did put one short on around 11 this morning-the $vix, LOL
2011-11-10 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the SML breadth MCO
2011-11-10 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's good play
2011-11-10 17:04:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think
2011-11-10 17:04:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I hope, lol
2011-11-10 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if there's no news from the EU tomorrow
2011-11-10 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shorts are going to cover with both hands
2011-11-10 17:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think either side really has any interest in holding scalping positions over the weekend
2011-11-10 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew...do you follow index option volume at all?
2011-11-10 17:05:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-11-10 17:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you know how the put volume was yesterday...let's say December expiration?? heck, there's a week to go for November...how about out the money puts for November...was it high?
2011-11-10 17:06:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'll glance
2011-11-10 17:06:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2011-11-10 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trying to get an indication if the go "all in" specs picked up on their buying looking for another sure thing or not
2011-11-10 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my instinct says they did
2011-11-10 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they have been killed over the last 3 months and have to be frustrated
2011-11-10 17:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these 400 point moves in the Dow will tend to generate a little excitement that "this time I'll make a killing!!"
2011-11-10 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still remember the fall of 1998
2011-11-10 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the old Elliott wave chat room at Bob's site
2011-11-10 17:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how everyone bought boat loads of November puts when the Asian Flu hit in September
2011-11-10 17:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how everyone just about lost everything
2011-11-10 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it became the battle cry "remember the November puts" on other shake outs after that
2011-11-10 17:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...onward
2011-11-10 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-11-10 17:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the pattern is now starting to roll over to the downside
2011-11-10 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls will need to really step up the pace here and break out in the next couple of trading sessions
2011-11-10 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they're going to have problems moving back above the important 420 price level
2011-11-10 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms though remain with the SML breadth MCO
2011-11-10 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes
2011-11-10 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this series of bottoms will need to be broken to trigger the rounding topping pattern in the MCSUM
2011-11-10 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: working together then to provide a desired goal works both ways
2011-11-10 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after moving to what looks like a slightly lower low on Wednesday
2011-11-10 17:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCO returned back above the zero line
2011-11-10 17:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components here still holding nicely above their zero lines suggesting a corrective pattern
2011-11-10 17:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-10 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nice little shake out we had yesterday has paused many of the breadth MCO's back below their zero lines
2011-11-10 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all regained their footing and closed back into positive territory today
2011-11-10 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the components that make up these MCO's did remain above their zero line
2011-11-10 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we know that yesterday was corrective decline and NOT the beginning of a change in trend
2011-11-10 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the various MCSUM's remain at important levels of resistance
2011-11-10 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the large caps continuing to show great leadership the upside as money continues to seek out companies that have more of a multi national presence
2011-11-10 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Open 10 is now "oversold"
2011-11-10 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ and TM minimally so
2011-11-10 17:17:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lots of NOV bought at 1200, 1190, 1180- and 1150-and MAN, are folks light on those calls! Unreal
2011-11-10 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2011-11-10 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had a feeling
2011-11-10 17:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too tempting
2011-11-10 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have these out of the monies options at .25 to .50 a contract and dreams of sugar plums dance in your head
2011-11-10 17:20:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-11-10 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they'll call it "low risk"
2011-11-10 17:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-11-10 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not when you're trading 100 of them and time is working against you
2011-11-10 17:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for the research
2011-11-10 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2011-11-10 17:21:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no prob
2011-11-10 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday we saw the ISEE at 67
2011-11-10 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the P/C ratio must had been lopsided
2011-11-10 17:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the breadth MCSUM's in the sectors
2011-11-10 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way the XLY breadth MCSUM is riding the +750 line
2011-11-10 17:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which used to be the May highs
2011-11-10 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is just under the February highs
2011-11-10 17:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: topping out?
2011-11-10 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or basing?
2011-11-10 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLY MCO in relation to its component
2011-11-10 17:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds say...basing
2011-11-10 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the price pattern
2011-11-10 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again testing support at the 38 level
2011-11-10 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we had our overhead resistance after the August crash
2011-11-10 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback complete?
2011-11-10 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: test successful?
2011-11-10 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know soon enough
2011-11-10 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we were seeing some breakdown in the XLP data last week?
2011-11-10 17:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: guess which sector is moving to higher highs now in its MCSUM?
2011-11-10 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, the XLP
2011-11-10 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note how the pattern pulled back to test the rally failure highs of July first and now has moved in the clear again
2011-11-10 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good constructive evidence that money continues to believe that there are better things ahead for basic stuff
2011-11-10 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could also mean
2011-11-10 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if things get bad, people will start to "stock up"  which would also support money's opinion
2011-11-10 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to tell when it comes to things that are considered "staples"
2011-11-10 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we have new highs in the XLP breadth MCSUM
2011-11-10 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for new highs now in the price pattern
2011-11-10 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting chart action
2011-11-10 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a higher high in the XLP breadth MCO will now move us to new price highs without much in the way of effort
2011-11-10 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and that would be all time highs if that were to occur
2011-11-10 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: internal strength in the XLE breadth MCSUM remains ummm...robust?
2011-11-10 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of +1166
2011-11-10 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the all time highs are at 86.61 closing basis
2011-11-10 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at 70.81
2011-11-10 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a move to the 80 level looks like a really good bet now
2011-11-10 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buy point here for those who want to play this
2011-11-10 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a close above 73 would be the trigger
2011-11-10 17:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can go to Yahoo during the day to get an idea on breadth
2011-11-10 17:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow - that's now about 2000 data points traveled on the XLE breadth MCSUM since its lows
2011-11-10 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we were working with the NYSE RA breadth MCSUM
2011-11-10 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would indicate a strong uptrend in progress
2011-11-10 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one that would last months
2011-11-10 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be partially due to the saber rattling in the Middle East as well
2011-11-10 17:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless...money is indicating that there's upside to go here
2011-11-10 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF is showing better and better internals here
2011-11-10 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know though how far and fast prices will move with this same money characteristic
2011-11-10 17:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe it's something to watch for a 10% gain to 15
2011-11-10 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCSUM remains stubbornly higher
2011-11-10 17:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just draw a simple rising trendline there
2011-11-10 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when it breaks
2011-11-10 17:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you stop buying and hold
2011-11-10 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait for the divergence
2011-11-10 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then bank
2011-11-10 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a test of this years highs is fairly high bet there
2011-11-10 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, again, are the all time highs
2011-11-10 17:39:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM remains congested
2011-11-10 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with an upward bias
2011-11-10 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a good example of how we can actually see how the bulls are having a rough time finding new sponsors here
2011-11-10 17:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lucky for them though
2011-11-10 17:39:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there isn't a lot of bears selling here 
2011-11-10 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise it would be a different story as far as the trend is concerned
2011-11-10 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here...we have to move above the April highs on the MCSUM to get things going again
2011-11-10 17:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as long as its moving in this preferred direction, the odds favor more up than down
2011-11-10 17:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the outline of a symmetrical triangle in the price pattern
2011-11-10 17:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the MCSUM moving higher
2011-11-10 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds will favor an upside breakout
2011-11-10 17:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only hesitation would be
2011-11-10 17:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bottoms above bottoms on the XLI breadth MCO are broken
2011-11-10 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it could just move sideways out of the apex
2011-11-10 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's a wait and see situation with indecision patterns
2011-11-10 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLB breadth MCSUM is now above the +1000 level
2011-11-10 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to be some time before the bears regain any sense of control with this sector
2011-11-10 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCSUM looks like its gasping for air at such a high altitude (+818)
2011-11-10 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an oxygen tank would help things there
2011-11-10 17:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as expected on Tuesday with the NDX data
2011-11-10 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look how the price pattern was turned away here as well from moving above its yearly highs
2011-11-10 17:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we really do need to get above the February highs it would seem to do so
2011-11-10 17:45:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe other areas in the NDX will have to pick up the slack here
2011-11-10 17:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a weak leader like AAPL may keep this sector from moving higher with any sense of purpose for a bit of time
2011-11-10 17:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCSUM continues to remain above the +1000 level
2011-11-10 17:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern showing pretty much a nice slow steady rhythm to the upside
2011-11-10 17:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move up...consolidate...move up again...consolidate
2011-11-10 17:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much standard fair for Utility stocks
2011-11-10 17:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-11-10 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a bit of mixed bag here sector wise
2011-11-10 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with consumer related stocks showing good strength of pattern
2011-11-10 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the energy sector showing exceptional strength internally
2011-11-10 17:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the important sectors like the industrial and technology finding it difficult to find as many takers as they once had and are in need of some fresh bodies to fight the battle
2011-11-10 17:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...the trend remains intact to the upside with some "inconsistencies"
2011-11-10 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now pretty much neutral after calling a price top on Tuesday
2011-11-10 17:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain on the north side of neutral
2011-11-10 17:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the VTO's remaining stubbornly "overbought" on the SPX, OEX, and Dow, but near neutral now on the NdX
2011-11-10 17:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-11-10 17:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that if the bulls don't get a shot in the arm either tomorrow or Monday
2011-11-10 17:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may just chop around until next weeks OPEX
2011-11-10 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the range is a large one
2011-11-10 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1225 on the low side...1275 on the high side
2011-11-10 17:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough to keep scalpers and day traders happy
2011-11-10 17:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and during modes like this
2011-11-10 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any oscillator is the tool of choice
2011-11-10 17:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so keep an eye on that
2011-11-10 17:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep in mind
2011-11-10 17:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more important oscillators
2011-11-10 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO and MCSUM
2011-11-10 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remain, overall, bullish to choppy
2011-11-10 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2011-11-10 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to be better to wear "long" pants than it would be wearing "shorts"
2011-11-10 17:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-11-10 17:55:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-11-10 17:56:00 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you indeed
2011-11-10 17:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these sharp and short declines are probably close to finishing up now
2011-11-10 17:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sentiment here is just foaming at the mouth bearish
2011-11-10 17:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if its frustration
2011-11-10 17:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: arrogance...rabies
2011-11-10 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or combination of the three
2011-11-10 17:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll soon find out
2011-11-10 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I would like to ideally see here is for a choppy period into next Friday
2011-11-10 17:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that way we'll get the VTO's to at least a neutral reading
2011-11-10 17:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make it a correction of time than that of price
2011-11-10 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2011-11-10 17:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2011-11-10 17:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have to push again...
2011-11-10 17:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would fit the bigger idea of a range
2011-11-10 17:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the McSUM's continue to move higher
2011-11-10 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you buy the dip
2011-11-10 17:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when they top out
2011-11-10 17:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you hold
2011-11-10 17:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when they move up at a lower level
2011-11-10 17:59:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you bank
2011-11-10 17:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no tricks here
2011-11-10 17:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice and easy
2011-11-10 18:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the market work out its occasional indigestion
2011-11-10 18:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's healthy
2011-11-10 18:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-11-10 18:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-11-10 18:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-11-10 18:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2011-11-10 18:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2011-11-10 18:00:33 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you too

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