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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
Better late than never...apologies for the delay.

2008-10-09 19:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: And soooo....it begins....
2008-10-09 19:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: How is everyone holding up?
2008-10-09 19:02:05 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: following ur lead
2008-10-09 19:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sigh...
2008-10-09 19:02:38 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: question
2008-10-09 19:02:42 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: S&P down 42% from Oct highs......it took 2.5 years from 2000-2002 for a drop of 50%.....the last 10 trading days have been brutal
2008-10-09 19:03:07 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: Dave, can you clarify how liquidity affects Gold
2008-10-09 19:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or the lack of it?
2008-10-09 19:03:27 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: yes Ted spread at 4.23
2008-10-09 19:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: gold is the investment of last resort - it is the savings area when all other asset classes are deemed fairly valued
2008-10-09 19:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order for gold to appreciate, it can not do so without other areas being "filled to capacity"
2008-10-09 19:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it the bypass
2008-10-09 19:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are times, however, when gold is looked upon as a safe heaven, but what many are finding out right now is that this idea is more gimmick than anything else
2008-10-09 19:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially when cash is in short supply as it is right now
2008-10-09 19:07:37 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: thinking that Gold drops when Equities rebound
2008-10-09 19:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might, but then again, where will equities rebound?
2008-10-09 19:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: low enough and there still won't be enough liquidity to raise the ship
2008-10-09 19:08:25 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: tough call when P/E's are historically undervalued
2008-10-09 19:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why fundamentals are hard to trade
2008-10-09 19:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have to keep in mind that we are in extraordinary times right now
2008-10-09 19:09:10 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: how about a breadth divergence in the MCO?
2008-10-09 19:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the emotion of fear, which will lead to anger, is just starting to raise its ugly head
2008-10-09 19:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's be candid here
2008-10-09 19:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are what could very well be a Super Cycle bear market
2008-10-09 19:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breadth divergences will come, but will not produce the desired results many are thinking
2008-10-09 19:10:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also consider that this is a global event, and there's not much one country can do to control these kind of situations....it takes global co-operation
2008-10-09 19:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...we have to accept that major life changes are coming for everyone
2008-10-09 19:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for even after we bottom, there will be fall out...law suits and such
2008-10-09 19:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there will be new political parties created; one of the major US parties will cease to exist
2008-10-09 19:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or will have very little bearing on the future course of the country
2008-10-09 19:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...IF this is a Super Cycle bear...but we still don't have full evidence - as yet - to back up this statement
2008-10-09 19:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do know right now is that the next 6 months to a year are going to be very difficult for many people
2008-10-09 19:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our job then is to keep disciplined and focused
2008-10-09 19:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the bad news
2008-10-09 19:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have it on good authority that 1/2 of the stocks on the NYSE had to halt trading 5 minutes before the close tonight because of selling imbalances - there were no buyers
2008-10-09 19:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now..something like this is consistent to the final phase of the center point of a 3rd wave down
2008-10-09 19:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what's more concerning here is two fold
2008-10-09 19:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one...when the system gets locked up like this, and other avenues are also plugged (like the debt arena), unfathomable things will happen
2008-10-09 19:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example...if there's no match...you can't open, which creates vacuum gaps
2008-10-09 19:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other thing to consider in this time frame is that we have a scheduled "bank holiday" on Monday, Columbus Day
2008-10-09 19:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...technically...this is what we have tonight
2008-10-09 19:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the minimal downside objective for the cash SPX is within 10 points of being met
2008-10-09 19:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the Dow's minimal objective already reached, and less than 40 points from reaching the second target
2008-10-09 19:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have the MCO's extremely "oversold" now
2008-10-09 19:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which, in and of itself, confirms a third wave down in progress, and makes all too clear how important last years flags were in this bigger picture concept
2008-10-09 19:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if we do make new all time lows in the MCO's, this would go a long way in accepting that something as destructive as a Super Cycle bear market is upon us all
2008-10-09 19:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where, based on past comparisons, the market can lose up to 90% of its value
2008-10-09 19:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a good example of higher degree cycles like this, and their destructive force, can be seen with the 2000/2002 bear market in the NASDAQ
2008-10-09 19:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, at this point, a temporary bottom might come about as soon as tomorrow
2008-10-09 19:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the current log jam of sell orders in the system, we MUST also be prepared for something more acute
2008-10-09 19:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I do hope that everyone in here is aware that I'm not sharing this to scare you, but to prepare you
2008-10-09 19:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you should be concerned...very concerned
2008-10-09 19:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what should be happening now is that many traders, both bull and bear, will start to point fingers to areas not at all relevant in what is causing this decline
2008-10-09 19:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we all know that there have been many clues months prior that something like this, with a little push, could happen
2008-10-09 19:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the next couple of days, we should look for a major announcement from one of the premiere companies based in the United States that will hopefully bring this to a climactic end
2008-10-09 19:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and my feel here is that it will be a "Blue Chip" Dow stock
2008-10-09 19:28:07 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: ge is my top candidate for that
2008-10-09 19:28:08 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: does it start with a G?
2008-10-09 19:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something in which will panic the public
2008-10-09 19:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it starts with a G and ends with an M, and I'll throw another letter in there to... F
2008-10-09 19:29:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, you mean a bad news thing....
2008-10-09 19:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...like a bankruptcy
2008-10-09 19:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, look for GM to be removed from the Dow very soon
2008-10-09 19:29:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How does that end anything?
2008-10-09 19:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a cumulation
2008-10-09 19:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you're right...it might not end anything
2008-10-09 19:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but technically, we're due for some sort of reflex bounce
2008-10-09 19:30:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That is what I thought on Tuesday
2008-10-09 19:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but since we're being so overwhelmed with liquidation here, it could very well be that we might, and I say might, reach the downside objectives in quick order
2008-10-09 19:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you are experiencing a 3rd wave crash and nothing technical will work in this kind of market condition
2008-10-09 19:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to even think about trying to pick bottom here is unreasonable
2008-10-09 19:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less, could be deadly
2008-10-09 19:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we had proper warning of this last Thursday
2008-10-09 19:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and hopefully many decided to take out put insurance
2008-10-09 19:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the record
2008-10-09 19:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I closed any long positions I had (except one) at Monday's open - at the market
2008-10-09 19:33:54 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&b=3&g=0&id=p50643833387&a=109405081
2008-10-09 19:35:10 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: that is the wickedest possible double top I've ever seen
2008-10-09 19:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and this was always a consideration
2008-10-09 19:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe I should work up a measurement of the double top?
2008-10-09 19:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't...it's too big
2008-10-09 19:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to find other ways to forecast a measurement
2008-10-09 19:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...what are your concerns tonight...what do guys want to talk about...how can this chat session be beneficial to you?
2008-10-09 19:38:29 [Message] ron -> Main Room: is this the death knoll of capitalism (capital markets)?
2008-10-09 19:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-09 19:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have been forcefully nationalized
2008-10-09 19:39:04 [Message] ron -> Main Room: a new social order is coming
2008-10-09 19:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the free markets, as we knew them, is now past
2008-10-09 19:39:35 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: What will our every day life be like ??
2008-10-09 19:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the FED wants to have a stake in private banks?
2008-10-09 19:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will be harder than anyone can imagine
2008-10-09 19:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there will be laws passed "to protect us"
2008-10-09 19:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taxes will overwhelm the populace
2008-10-09 19:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this election gives you a choice though...you can walk into this, or run head long
2008-10-09 19:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I hope will happen though, as long as we have the right to do so, is that the people will finally find passion again in voting
2008-10-09 19:42:20 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: would you be better to rent or own your home
2008-10-09 19:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...it was only a 5:4 decision last year where our "right to bear arms" was almost stricken from the Constitution
2008-10-09 19:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is nothing wrong in having a roof over your head as long as you can afford to do so
2008-10-09 19:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: renting brings you nothing except for the owner
2008-10-09 19:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless...this is also taken away for the betterment of those who are down on their luck
2008-10-09 19:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example
2008-10-09 19:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's say you have a 3 bedroom home
2008-10-09 19:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may come a day in which someone will ask you "how many people live here?"
2008-10-09 19:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if there's only enough to satisfy only one of those bedrooms, you might be forced to give shelter to the other two
2008-10-09 19:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...of course, this might sound a bit on the extreme side, and there is nothing out there at this time that suggests something like this can happen, but you never really know what the human animal will do when pushed into a corner
2008-10-09 19:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, we are bailing out people now who shouldn't be living in 10 million dollar mansions
2008-10-09 19:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but do...and will
2008-10-09 19:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given the intelligence of our elected representatives...I just don't know
2008-10-09 19:47:06 [Message] ron -> Main Room: will there still be trading in commodities and stocks?
2008-10-09 19:47:31 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: that is hard to believe. I'm 67, what about SS & Gov pensions?
2008-10-09 19:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what IS important here is keeping focused on the goal of being able to make decisions when you want to
2008-10-09 19:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...as long as there is a market, there will be trading
2008-10-09 19:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the rules will change
2008-10-09 19:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: example
2008-10-09 19:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many folks today are blaming the lifting of short selling on the markets close?
2008-10-09 19:48:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Nobody here
2008-10-09 19:48:41 [Message] ron -> Main Room: probably most ordinary folks
2008-10-09 19:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not to say that the market was already declining before this ban was lifted
2008-10-09 19:48:49 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: mentioned on cnbc
2008-10-09 19:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: listen to the news
2008-10-09 19:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...there's one
2008-10-09 19:49:00 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: bartiromo, then kudlow
2008-10-09 19:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pure silliness
2008-10-09 19:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about this...this decline was because of the banning of short selling??
2008-10-09 19:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what was the timing of this ban - where was the market when it was installed??
2008-10-09 19:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did it help or hurt??
2008-10-09 19:50:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: hurt
2008-10-09 19:50:15 [Message] ron -> Main Room: made it worse,
2008-10-09 19:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Ms B...
2008-10-09 19:50:53 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: did what it was going to do
2008-10-09 19:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this keeps up, there is absolutely no way that the government will be able to support Social Security
2008-10-09 19:51:53 [Message] Rainy -> Main Room: problems with social security were being talked about before all this...
2008-10-09 19:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it was talked about as being a goal to correct this for the Congress for many years, and the Congress didn't want anything to do with it
2008-10-09 19:55:02 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: not sure I'd give either side a free pass here...
2008-10-09 19:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just where are they going to get the money to support all of the boomers?
2008-10-09 19:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...I didn't pick sides here
2008-10-09 19:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it IS the Congress which enacts laws
2008-10-09 19:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it IS the Congress that ratifies treaties
2008-10-09 19:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it IS the Congress that makes budget decisions on the advisement of the executive branch
2008-10-09 19:56:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Amazing how confused people are about who makes the laws......
2008-10-09 19:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all roads lead to Congress and not a single figure head
2008-10-09 19:56:34 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: wonder how many folks are familiar w/ their representatives voting records etc
2008-10-09 19:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they hopefully will be angry enough now to do so
2008-10-09 19:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many in here know how their representatives voted on the bailout?
2008-10-09 19:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there was such passion with this
2008-10-09 19:57:28 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: they all voted yes
2008-10-09 19:57:30 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: who even knows who their reps are?
2008-10-09 19:57:39 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: even thought I told them to vote no
2008-10-09 19:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's the problem mojave
2008-10-09 19:57:57 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: People, both sides, running for President seem to want to keep up the confusion / myth about who makes the laws...
2008-10-09 19:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is not that important who is president
2008-10-09 19:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is only important who our representatives are
2008-10-09 19:58:41 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: how do we have passion to vote when we are given none to vote for?
2008-10-09 19:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, they must propose, debate, and pass a bill before the President signs it
2008-10-09 19:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and even if there's no one out there, who would, in their right mind, run for office with all the bitterness out there??
2008-10-09 19:59:31 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: nobody normal...
2008-10-09 19:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so really...if there's anyone to blame...it's ourselves
2008-10-09 20:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "we, the people, to form a more perfect union", allowed this to happen
2008-10-09 20:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our lives were so busy
2008-10-09 20:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no time to get involved
2008-10-09 20:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which equated to only 20% of the registered voters in each of the elections of the last 20 years
2008-10-09 20:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: came out to perform their privilege of voting...where so many died so we could have this...it's really sad
2008-10-09 20:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...sigh...it is what it is
2008-10-09 20:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as long as the constitution isn't changed, we, the people, can fight back
2008-10-09 20:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you look at the candidates today, and if you say one bad thing about them, you are shut up
2008-10-09 20:02:42 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Nikkei down 1.5% or so
2008-10-09 20:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not bad
2008-10-09 20:02:53 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: I vote but I end up voting for the one i think will cause the least damage, that's not being given much of a choice.
2008-10-09 20:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I feared it would be worse than that
2008-10-09 20:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the way I look at it
2008-10-09 20:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there won't be any one person that's going to agree with everyone on every single thing
2008-10-09 20:03:45 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: well, Nikkei 20 yr low... fwiw
2008-10-09 20:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you vote for those in which you believe will perform their duty of office within your ideals
2008-10-09 20:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes they do...most times...shrug
2008-10-09 20:04:20 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: 'not bad' lol
2008-10-09 20:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...off base a bit
2008-10-09 20:04:46 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: that's a bear market!
2008-10-09 20:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything technical you wish to talk about?
2008-10-09 20:06:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Can the market go down 8 days in a row?
2008-10-09 20:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during a crash phase...most certainly
2008-10-09 20:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I would love to go over the charts tonight
2008-10-09 20:15:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, the MCOs beckon
2008-10-09 20:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but there isn't anything there that would prove to be helpful until we reverse...take the pressure off - everything is trashed, so we should expect a bounce very soon
2008-10-09 20:15:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bet we have new flags everywhere
2008-10-09 20:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: items of further concern are...
2008-10-09 20:16:51 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: all mco's new lows today
2008-10-09 20:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what's the RA number?
2008-10-09 20:17:06 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: (except energy/materials)
2008-10-09 20:17:15 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: mco? -129
2008-10-09 20:17:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: we should look anyway....just for fun
2008-10-09 20:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I think the all time low on the RA is -141
2008-10-09 20:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have to check
2008-10-09 20:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...give me a moment...and we'll look at a couple of things
2008-10-09 20:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's stick with the 3 year data as the one day views mean nothing
2008-10-09 20:21:06 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: 87 crash may have been that -141...
2008-10-09 20:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm trying to remember
2008-10-09 20:21:18 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: don't see anything else since then
2008-10-09 20:21:59 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: prev to that is 'traditional' not ra
2008-10-09 20:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the traditional NYSE MCO I'm pretty sure that the all time lows was after 9/11
2008-10-09 20:22:02 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Any news blip? market is dropping hard.
2008-10-09 20:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wait till Europe opens
2008-10-09 20:22:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone have a good bunker prepared?
2008-10-09 20:23:07 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: ES 883 YM 8384
2008-10-09 20:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Randy might have that information...maybe he'll take a moment to make a post on it
2008-10-09 20:23:17 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: 9/11 -124ish, not as oversold as today
2008-10-09 20:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my my
2008-10-09 20:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whew...
2008-10-09 20:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's numbing, isn't it?
2008-10-09 20:25:19 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-09 20:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just keep the measuring targets in mind for tomorrow
2008-10-09 20:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 8533 for the Dow...then 7263
2008-10-09 20:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the cash SPX - 851, then 724
2008-10-09 20:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem here is that the NASDAQ and NDX still have their minimal objectives still yet to be reached
2008-10-09 20:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we touched upon that the Dow was likely to start playing "internal" catch up with the broad market
2008-10-09 20:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the COMPX - 1532...the NDX 1126
2008-10-09 20:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those are our minimal targets
2008-10-09 20:27:42 [Message] kean -> Main Room: Too far oversold to consider shorting? Wait for a bounce?
2008-10-09 20:28:42 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: SPY 93.80 was one short tgt later today
2008-10-09 20:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the problem now if you're not already short
2008-10-09 20:29:41 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: are we not below 93.80 now???
2008-10-09 20:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the volatility is just too great
2008-10-09 20:30:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: oh, the bounce....I think I get your point
2008-10-09 20:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you'll probably get your head handed to you on the reversal
2008-10-09 20:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why I brought up the put insurance last week
2008-10-09 20:31:13 [Message] kean -> Main Room: So look for stabilization after a bounce if considering it?
2008-10-09 20:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why I asked if anyone decided to take out put insurance for the execution of closing this option will be very tricky
2008-10-09 20:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in 87, the options exchange closed
2008-10-09 20:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would stand back and watch kean...no sense in chasing now
2008-10-09 20:32:08 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I don't expect it, but wouldn't be surprised if exchanges closed for a few days...
2008-10-09 20:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as long as you either closed longs, or bought insurance, you should be OK for now
2008-10-09 20:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could very well happen - Bank Holidays and such
2008-10-09 20:32:44 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: exactly - it's always good to have a little cash on hand
2008-10-09 20:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with everything that the FED is used to stop this decline, this might be the only way to take a breather
2008-10-09 20:33:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know what's really scary?
2008-10-09 20:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Dollar advance
2008-10-09 20:33:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What, there is more?
2008-10-09 20:34:20 [Message] ron -> Main Room: I don't understand that -- what is going on? any thoughts?
2008-10-09 20:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for if the dollar is rallying, and the competition is offering a better return, that could only mean that our economy is stronger than the rest - OR - there is a short supply of this currency
2008-10-09 20:34:49 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: flight to 'safety' if you can believe it
2008-10-09 20:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same thing, I guess
2008-10-09 20:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we're the strong...oh boy...
2008-10-09 20:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the CO NYSE breadth MCO is now off the chart, so we should expect the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to follow to new lows as well
2008-10-09 20:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any chance of divergence now has been all but destroyed
2008-10-09 20:36:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Nikkei down 4.5%
2008-10-09 20:36:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should expect, at least, 6 months to a year of bear market action
2008-10-09 20:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how deep we go (price wise) will determine the time factor in all of this
2008-10-09 20:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I have a feeling that we'll get the idea without knowing or looking at the data
2008-10-09 20:37:16 [Message] oi -> Main Room: longer term, we keep going to sp 585, any chance of govt default on treasuries?
2008-10-09 20:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the treasury defaults...that would pretty much take care of the United States of America, but this would be quite extreme
2008-10-09 20:38:14 [Message] oi -> Main Room: ok
2008-10-09 20:38:16 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: FIB, you once said the true test of your knowledge would be how to trade in a bear market...looks like you'll have that opportunity...I look forward to your sage advice and experience
2008-10-09 20:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's just say that it's going to take time to build a new foundation in which the market might rally
2008-10-09 20:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: deal OEX - find me a bottom first
2008-10-09 20:39:06 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-09 20:39:19 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: you won't get off that easy
2008-10-09 20:39:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can't technically trade under these kind of conditions
2008-10-09 20:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hey...I gave downside price objectives, what do you want from me!?!?!? lol
2008-10-09 20:40:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, If you could add the day and hour of the lows.....that would really be outstanding
2008-10-09 20:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...new all time lows on the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-10-09 20:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then I would have to charge $1000 per chat!!
2008-10-09 20:40:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: It would be worth it
2008-10-09 20:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have never seen the MCO below -400
2008-10-09 20:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is not good news folks
2008-10-09 20:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money is now leaving the US markets at historic rates
2008-10-09 20:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and usually, when this kind of thing happens, it's a mighty long time before we find our legs again
2008-10-09 20:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short covering aside, this is a trust issue now, that of confidence
2008-10-09 20:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it would appear that we have, as a marketplace, have lost this trust
2008-10-09 20:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe I'm being too dramatic here?
2008-10-09 20:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know what to think...
2008-10-09 20:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: little did I know that my description of business conditions here last June meant so much -"fell off a cliff"
2008-10-09 20:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a -129 on the RA has got to be darn close to all time lows
2008-10-09 20:44:31 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: Bloomberg: "FED, Treasury seek global help as US markets defeat efforts"
2008-10-09 20:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yea...and who's going to come to our aid?
2008-10-09 20:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the US is the aid giver
2008-10-09 20:45:06 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: euro banks even more leveraged supposedly...
2008-10-09 20:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, look at Iceland
2008-10-09 20:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the EU doesn't have a central government - that's a really big problem
2008-10-09 20:45:35 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: what of the euro I wonder?...
2008-10-09 20:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably finished - it was never going to work anyway...too much history
2008-10-09 20:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every country for themselves
2008-10-09 20:46:24 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: my brother had dinner Friday night with an economic adviser with the state of Nevada and he said Sept. tax revenues for auto dealers came in 65% below august and retail, meaning mervyns & penny's came in 45% below August
2008-10-09 20:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem for the US is that we have all but dismantled our manufacturing capabilities
2008-10-09 20:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just have a gut feeling about GM and F now
2008-10-09 20:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...they're in the lending business - both to their dealerships, and their customers
2008-10-09 20:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the pensions...alll that money...
2008-10-09 20:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's so sad
2008-10-09 20:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would had been better if this happened in the 80's
2008-10-09 20:48:14 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: I believe that may be the next shoe to drop (auto industry) as this spreads to non-financial firms
2008-10-09 20:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is also another industry to REALLY worry about here
2008-10-09 20:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if they go...
2008-10-09 20:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much bigger than autos
2008-10-09 20:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think AIG
2008-10-09 20:49:02 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: car dealers can't get loans for 2009 cars because the banks say they have too many 2008 left.
2008-10-09 20:49:06 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: Yup
2008-10-09 20:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the insurance industry goes..and they will...there's too much pressure
2008-10-09 20:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: makes me wonder if I should pay any premiums?
2008-10-09 20:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is so far reaching here folks
2008-10-09 20:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not a case of us "deserving it" - it's a matter of being a human
2008-10-09 20:50:21 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: We received something in the mail from USAA (big insurance company for military and family) stating they are on firm financial footing....PR machine already in gear
2008-10-09 20:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone is going to say this
2008-10-09 20:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only way to confirm is to check it out because we have already seen this tried before
2008-10-09 20:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from the companies themselves, and from our elected officials
2008-10-09 20:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on a lighter note...
2008-10-09 20:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did anyone catch the SNL skit last Saturday on the bailout?
2008-10-09 20:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you haven't - it's a must see
2008-10-09 20:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NBC pulled it from the internet, but was forced to keep it up
2008-10-09 20:53:00 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: Sorry to interrupt...Nikkei down 10%....about 1000 points
2008-10-09 20:53:17 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: http://nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/c-span-bailout/727521/
2008-10-09 20:53:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That's getting serious oex
2008-10-09 20:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to again say this without being dramatic
2008-10-09 20:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we should see a bad opening on Friday
2008-10-09 20:54:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You think?
2008-10-09 20:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would look for circuit breakers to kick in sometime during the day
2008-10-09 20:54:52 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: GE reports although they already warned
2008-10-09 20:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the weekend will increase the sense of urgency to do something
2008-10-09 20:56:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the most logical thing here is that we should see a bottom by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week
2008-10-09 20:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this will be a temporary one, but it might give us the biggest up day in history
2008-10-09 20:57:13 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: They may close the exchanges. Could be a problem with unhedged short positions, if so
2008-10-09 20:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they have done so already in this week on a global basis
2008-10-09 20:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when real panic sets in, the people in charge will do the same
2008-10-09 20:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe that's the reason why GE is in the low 20's?
2008-10-09 20:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and how about that BofA debacle?
2008-10-09 20:58:41 [Message] kean -> Main Room: Just saw on O'Reilly where he chastised Cramer for telling people Monday to get everything out of the market. Say's he's too late.
2008-10-09 20:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they couldn't price an issue to market?
2008-10-09 20:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: poor Cramer
2008-10-09 20:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: his heart is in this, his intentions are good...but he'll survive
2008-10-09 20:59:24 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: ha, they wanted to price it at 28 - were told try 18...
2008-10-09 20:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same thing happened with Bob Prechter on Wall Street Week back in 1987
2008-10-09 20:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why would you go to market during a crash?
2008-10-09 20:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's desperate
2008-10-09 20:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and probably telling
2008-10-09 21:00:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Find it hard to understand why someone would rush in and buy...maybe just to cover shorts..but that about it
2008-10-09 21:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...B of A has Countrywide
2008-10-09 21:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there hasn't been any fresh money in the market in months
2008-10-09 21:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's been the problem
2008-10-09 21:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the reason why the internals said wait - another shoe was going to drop
2008-10-09 21:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what a shoe..it came with a giant boot
2008-10-09 21:01:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Oh, so BAC can sell billions of junk to us taxpayers.......good stock to buy
2008-10-09 21:02:18 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: man, alot of heroes keep trying to buy this bottom...
2008-10-09 21:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I've never seen anything like this in 40 years of doing this
2008-10-09 21:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ohhh...yea...that reminds me
2008-10-09 21:02:55 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: cnbc and bloomberg mention vix every 5 minutes over past week
2008-10-09 21:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's skip the rest of the McClellan's
2008-10-09 21:03:09 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: everybody thinks that's 'the trade'...
2008-10-09 21:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we know that the volume Oscillators are deeply "oversold" now
2008-10-09 21:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's go to the TRINS...this is important
2008-10-09 21:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.44
2008-10-09 21:03:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: nikkei down 11%
2008-10-09 21:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...this is after a last hour sell off of 500 points
2008-10-09 21:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the Open 10 is only at 1.10?
2008-10-09 21:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something is wrong here
2008-10-09 21:04:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What is 1.44??? that not that high?
2008-10-09 21:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like something was wrong with the market moving lower and the daily Open 10 remained "overbought"
2008-10-09 21:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM...not even close
2008-10-09 21:05:10 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: can you explain the trins. please
2008-10-09 21:05:10 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: put/call not extreme either - they're all buying calls...
2008-10-09 21:05:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Agree. 1.44 seems bogus
2008-10-09 21:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the Trading Index measures market breadth as it relates to market volume
2008-10-09 21:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in essence, the daily number tells us how much buying or selling there is in direct relation to its volume
2008-10-09 21:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example
2008-10-09 21:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I"m trying to think of a good way to describe this
2008-10-09 21:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during an advance, we want to see higher volume figures moving in this same direction
2008-10-09 21:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: higher, in this case, in relation to the advancement of the price pattern
2008-10-09 21:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when we don't get the desired flow of money to support these same prices, a vacuum is created that will eventually be filled
2008-10-09 21:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this vacuum effect is associated with "overbought" or "oversold" readings
2008-10-09 21:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I know...I'm supposed to make a post on this
2008-10-09 21:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: suffice it to say
2008-10-09 21:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we want to see right now is for the TRIN to show a deep "oversold" reading
2008-10-09 21:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that of being higher than 1.10
2008-10-09 21:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on major sell offs like today, we will usually get readings of over 2.0
2008-10-09 21:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we didn't get this at all
2008-10-09 21:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you deserve a better answer
2008-10-09 21:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll work on it when I can
2008-10-09 21:13:19 [Message] Ms B -> Main Room: thanks
2008-10-09 21:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the open 10 is taking a 10 day ma of this same data
2008-10-09 21:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is better in pinpointing turning point extremes
2008-10-09 21:14:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I did quick calc on trin using yahoo numbers and to .74.....that even more odd (or maybe a mistake)
2008-10-09 21:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we could be dealing with here is a case of numbers being off because of the volatility
2008-10-09 21:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less
2008-10-09 21:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...
2008-10-09 21:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh you weren't here
2008-10-09 21:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I mentioned earlier that I had it on good authority that half of the NYSE stopped trading 5 minutes before the close today because of selling imbalances...there were no buyers
2008-10-09 21:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and THAT could have a determining factor on the data here
2008-10-09 21:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know....we are in uncharted territory
2008-10-09 21:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wonder how much volume the NYSE can handle now
2008-10-09 21:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in 87, there were problems in the back rooms because of the huge volume of....
2008-10-09 21:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 600 million shares (!)
2008-10-09 21:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can the NYSE handle over 10 billion or more?
2008-10-09 21:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this might be the problem
2008-10-09 21:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...the fallout here is going to be fascinating
2008-10-09 21:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 2.58
2008-10-09 21:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.34
2008-10-09 21:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in theory...with this degree of 3 down
2008-10-09 21:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we should see historic readings in this data
2008-10-09 21:19:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: did another calc.... got .75 for NYSE (rounding) that is weird
2008-10-09 21:19:10 [Message] kean -> Main Room: I don't understand why McClellan is still rather positive about this market. Why isn't he seeing what you're seeing. After all, he uses the same indicators.
2008-10-09 21:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we all have our way of looking at things and Tom is not a student of Elliott
2008-10-09 21:19:56 [Message] kean -> Main Room: But he doesn't interpret these low MCO readings as really bad?
2008-10-09 21:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: he knows Elliott...but doesn't use it in his work
2008-10-09 21:20:12 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: well, historically oversold has many folks looking for 'the turn'
2008-10-09 21:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...during bull markets, they're terrific bottoming points
2008-10-09 21:20:33 [Message] kean -> Main Room: So what do we use in bear markets?
2008-10-09 21:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but aside from this
2008-10-09 21:20:41 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: kean - you may want to subscribe to John Murphy to balance out the view. He has been correctly bearish for mos. as has been Carl Swenlin.
2008-10-09 21:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you use the same tools...just different rules
2008-10-09 21:20:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Nikkei back to less than10% decline
2008-10-09 21:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the basics though
2008-10-09 21:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what won't change with this, and any oscillator, will be divergence techniques
2008-10-09 21:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this area...there's an excellent chance that from wherever we peak out on the MCO, we will see a challenge
2008-10-09 21:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all we're doing now is setting our flag
2008-10-09 21:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then there's the idea of how deep of an extreme must there be for a bottom?
2008-10-09 21:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, yesterday was good
2008-10-09 21:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the day before too
2008-10-09 21:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it's been another tool that's being used that actually was able to forecast this same extreme
2008-10-09 21:23:27 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: TRIN...amount of volume moving into advancing vs declining stocks.....>1 more volume moving into declining stocks, <1 more volume moving into advancing stocks
2008-10-09 21:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the basic definition
2008-10-09 21:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I was trying to come up with a explanation that one could relate to
2008-10-09 21:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll work on it...I'm not thinking clearly here
2008-10-09 21:24:16 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: tough to explain that concept....
2008-10-09 21:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is...that's why I hesitated
2008-10-09 21:24:42 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: been a long week(s)
2008-10-09 21:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and might be a very long weekend
2008-10-09 21:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a nightmare
2008-10-09 21:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: kind of looking for Freddy Kruger now
2008-10-09 21:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...it's very sad
2008-10-09 21:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes you can feel guilty making money off of something like this
2008-10-09 21:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the human in all of us...I guess
2008-10-09 21:26:48 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: I've become numb to the downdraft's....it's surreal....and I think the public who is not into the market like most of us is waking up to the fact that their retirement has been cut by 20-25% in the last few weeks assuming they're invested in equities
2008-10-09 21:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...nothing much more to say that hasn't already been said
2008-10-09 21:27:00 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: true
2008-10-09 21:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: believe me...they're getting their September statements now, they know
2008-10-09 21:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and they're stuck
2008-10-09 21:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: add a bank holiday
2008-10-09 21:27:57 [Message] kean -> Main Room: They pay about as much attention to their money as they do politics, until it makes it to the news.
2008-10-09 21:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or that the US needs help...
2008-10-09 21:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this is a nice slap in the face...
2008-10-09 21:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which can turn very ugly...right before election time
2008-10-09 21:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-10-09 21:28:56 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: fyi - http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253973/the_world_is_at_severe_risk_of_a_global_systemic_financial_meltdown_and_a_severe_global_depression
2008-10-09 21:29:07 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: talking of long weekend - a group that attempts to forecast events based on some kind lexical research - says there could be communications break-down after an "attack" of some kind. FWIW - set for this weekend
2008-10-09 21:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...we're certainly vulnerable now
2008-10-09 21:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and whose to say that we're not already being "financially" attacked?
2008-10-09 21:29:53 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: that would give the govt just the excuse they need to do anything...
2008-10-09 21:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember the article I linked on the troops?
2008-10-09 21:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: marital law?
2008-10-09 21:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could it come to that?
2008-10-09 21:30:32 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: everyone forced to get married?
2008-10-09 21:30:47 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: sorry, levity
2008-10-09 21:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what? there's something wrong with marriage?
2008-10-09 21:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-09 21:31:00 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: guys, lets try to keep some perspective here.....remember how things were after 9/11...life eventually returned to normal
2008-10-09 21:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is far different
2008-10-09 21:31:16 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Excerpt: We have linguistics to support a combination of 3/three kinds of [unexpected guests] this weekend, and they are the following aspect/attribute sets: [weather related incident involving a rescue], an [assault/attack] which causes [communications (to) shred (internationally)], and last, but not least, an ['accident' (real or claimed)] which causes a [derailing]. This last may be in the political realm.
2008-10-09 21:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the dominoes here are falling rapidly, not because that there might be a problem, but because people are now thinking there IS a problem
2008-10-09 21:32:24 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: I'm talking about the conspiracy stuff....let's stick to the markets...don't disagree with you there
2008-10-09 21:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many times have you heard a rumor only to be factual?
2008-10-09 21:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is a real loss of confidence now
2008-10-09 21:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's the real problem
2008-10-09 21:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's been the problem now for 3 weeks
2008-10-09 21:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's just snowballing
2008-10-09 21:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sub prime?
2008-10-09 21:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only 5% of the market
2008-10-09 21:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which means, minus Alt-A's, over 80% of home owners are paying on time, or own their homes out right
2008-10-09 21:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but just the idea of this has gotten out of control can knock down one domino in a set pattern, and you know what happens
2008-10-09 21:34:31 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: well, when that's eventually restored, which may take time, we'll return to normal market conditions......
2008-10-09 21:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hope you're right...I really do
2008-10-09 21:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe I'm not being objective here
2008-10-09 21:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if so...I apologize
2008-10-09 21:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-10-09 21:35:30 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: no need....these emotions are with us all
2008-10-09 21:35:35 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: witnesses to history
2008-10-09 21:35:37 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Was listening to dude that won Nobel Prize Economics....for Game Theory. He was talking about that if everybody believes the same thing...they act in a way that makes it happen. EG. everybody thinks market will go down so everybody sells stocks....
2008-10-09 21:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll be talking about this time for decades
2008-10-09 21:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: isn't that what the media does to form opinion?
2008-10-09 21:36:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Get those transcripts up so we can bronze them
2008-10-09 21:36:39 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: they keep trying very hard
2008-10-09 21:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if I write anymore, I'll be going over them for hours
2008-10-09 21:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...everyone have a great weekend
2008-10-09 21:37:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Tonight's a classic
2008-10-09 21:37:15 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: thanks a bunch, fib!
2008-10-09 21:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll talk again next Tuesday
2008-10-09 21:37:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks so much
2008-10-09 21:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-10-09 21:37:23 [Message] slatedrake -> Main Room: Take care all
2008-10-09 21:37:26 [Message] oextrader -> Main Room: good night thanks
2008-10-09 21:47:15 [Message] no_mind -> Main Room: Thank you



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