All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-08 16:00:07 fib1618: gooooooooood day!
2015-10-08 16:00:13 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-08 16:00:22 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-10-08 16:00:26 fib1618: excited!
2015-10-08 16:00:54 rite01: I guess so
2015-10-08 16:01:03 fib1618: why you "guess so"?
2015-10-08 16:01:46 rite01: Market action today or got a big order in today!
2015-10-08 16:02:04 fib1618: long?
2015-10-08 16:02:11 fib1618: or me?
2015-10-08 16:02:13 rite01: of course
2015-10-08 16:02:16 fib1618: I'm excited about the market
2015-10-08 16:02:23 fib1618: we're doing historic things now
2015-10-08 16:02:35 fib1618: haven't' seen the data
2015-10-08 16:02:53 rite01: i know
2015-10-08 16:02:59 fib1618: but it's a very good chance now that our tradable bottom came in right on schedule
2015-10-08 16:03:10 rite01: Lew must be making a killing
2015-10-08 16:03:21 thespookyone: "not bad"
2015-10-08 16:03:43 thespookyone: caught a couple real nice trades today
2015-10-08 16:04:11 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-08 16:04:32 fib1618: he has to make a killing to keep up on the utilities he needs to run his island
2015-10-08 16:05:06 thespookyone: somebody does, LOL was trading CELG off the bottom
2015-10-08 16:05:12 rite01: only still one island?
2015-10-08 16:05:21 fib1618: it's a big island
2015-10-08 16:05:23 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-08 16:05:40 fib1618: I think he has two towns named on it...Hilo and Kona [smile]
2015-10-08 16:06:03 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-10-08 16:06:26 fib1618: I will check the BETS...
2015-10-08 16:07:22 fib1618: -15
2015-10-08 16:07:24 fib1618: cash
2015-10-08 16:07:40 rite01: Yes one...From the McClellan's how could you have known the buy XLE at the bottom?
2015-10-08 16:07:47 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-08 16:08:01 fib1618: weren't you listening? [smile]
2015-10-08 16:08:14 fib1618: all kidding aside
2015-10-08 16:08:17 fib1618: there were many reasons
2015-10-08 16:08:28 fib1618: without even looking at the data
2015-10-08 16:08:37 fib1618: remember how bearish sentiment was?
2015-10-08 16:08:42 rite01: Yes
2015-10-08 16:08:48 fib1618: remember how we were diverging?
2015-10-08 16:09:08 fib1618: just those two things alone suggest some sort of bottom
2015-10-08 16:09:24 fib1618: but we also said that it would take time to "catch on"
2015-10-08 16:09:39 rite01: well everything was diverging about he same time
2015-10-08 16:09:51 fib1618: yes, it was
2015-10-08 16:10:19 fib1618: OK...let's start off with some important information
2015-10-08 16:10:41 fib1618: we had a Zweig breadth thrust buy signal today on the EMA according to Stock Charts
2015-10-08 16:11:06 rite01: and Both of my trusted sentiment AAII and TSP signaled same week about one day before the bottom
2015-10-08 16:11:10 fib1618: I'm waiting now for confirmation on this without the inclusion of unchanged issues
2015-10-08 16:11:18 fib1618: but if this confirmed
2015-10-08 16:11:26 fib1618: it would be our first one since March of 2009 (note: it was confirmed...see message board)
2015-10-08 16:11:35 fib1618: second
2015-10-08 16:11:54 fib1618: RightField made a post today on the TW message board about the NYSE Volume MCO
2015-10-08 16:12:11 fib1618: as it closed today at its highest level since 2009's kick off
2015-10-08 16:12:42 fib1618: and the third highest daily reading in 35 years
2015-10-08 16:12:44 fib1618: now...
2015-10-08 16:12:52 fib1618: I went back a bit further to 1965
2015-10-08 16:13:31 fib1618: and today's reading of +130
2015-10-08 16:13:58 fib1618: is actually the fifth highest reading in 50 years
2015-10-08 16:14:08 fib1618: some other higher readings were
2015-10-08 16:14:33 fib1618: 1976 at +135
2015-10-08 16:14:47 fib1618: 1971 at +142
2015-10-08 16:14:51 fib1618: 1974 at +152
2015-10-08 16:15:05 fib1618: now...we know that those readings came in during the primary bear market of that time
2015-10-08 16:15:20 fib1618: so although we have this high number working
2015-10-08 16:15:35 fib1618: it doesn't necessarily mean a longer term bottom...it could be a bear market rally
2015-10-08 16:15:38 fib1618: furthermore
2015-10-08 16:15:45 fib1618: on a weekly time scale
2015-10-08 16:15:54 fib1618: if the +130 holds up on Friday
2015-10-08 16:16:23 fib1618: it would be the highest reading in 50 years
2015-10-08 16:16:42 fib1618: checking the data for the number on the previous high point - one moment
2015-10-08 16:17:48 fib1618: previous was +128
2015-10-08 16:18:09 fib1618: back in 1975
2015-10-08 16:18:15 fib1618: now...
2015-10-08 16:18:28 fib1618: we know that sentiment at the lows was as bearish as the 2009 period
2015-10-08 16:18:43 fib1618: so that would fit for a longer term low
2015-10-08 16:18:53 fib1618: but if this breadth thrust is confirmed (which it is)
2015-10-08 16:19:38 fib1618: then the low expected for the beginning of October that was suggested by the NYSE breadth MCSUM back in the middle of August was spot on
2015-10-08 16:19:57 fib1618: so as we go through the data tonight
2015-10-08 16:20:43 fib1618: what we want to see is that a great majority of the indices we cover have moved to a higher high as well on their MCO's
2015-10-08 16:20:49 fib1618: the more we see
2015-10-08 16:20:55 fib1618: the better for the foundational low
2015-10-08 16:21:17 fib1618: as we had a lessening of selling pressure going into the 10/2 low
2015-10-08 16:21:34 fib1618: and with respect to the broadest based measure
2015-10-08 16:21:40 fib1618: the New York Composite Index
2015-10-08 16:21:49 fib1618: we had strong bull divergence in place
2015-10-08 16:22:08 fib1618: leaving us looking for a "show me" moment over the last two days
2015-10-08 16:22:49 fib1618: and with breadth today over 3:1 to the good
2015-10-08 16:22:56 fib1618: after being already as extended as we've been in the MCO's
2015-10-08 16:23:32 fib1618: this is an important statement of strength that should not be dismissed
2015-10-08 16:23:42 fib1618: OK...with all that said
2015-10-08 16:23:54 fib1618: let's get SC up and see if we have to work with
2015-10-08 16:24:29 fib1618: after falling back a bit on Tuesday
2015-10-08 16:24:45 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO regained its momentum and moved to higher highs over the last two days
2015-10-08 16:24:59 fib1618: with a reading today of +110
2015-10-08 16:25:36 fib1618: that is now the highest reading since the 2012 lows
2015-10-08 16:25:51 fib1618: and we know what happened to prices after that breadth thrust
2015-10-08 16:26:18 fib1618: we also have a strong buy signal as well with the components now
2015-10-08 16:27:12 fib1618: and we can see the immense strength of money moving into this group of stocks with the large individual upward postings seen in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-10-08 16:28:24 fib1618: moving first to the NYSE Composite Traditional breadth MCSUM
2015-10-08 16:28:36 fib1618: and we see that it moved up and through its zero line on Wednesday
2015-10-08 16:28:49 fib1618: and saw excellent follow though to this breakout today
2015-10-08 16:29:07 fib1618: moving to the Ratio Adjusted version
2015-10-08 16:29:37 fib1618: and we see that the NYSE Composite breadth MCO is now in deeply "overbought" territory with a reading of +95
2015-10-08 16:29:58 fib1618: and it's not often that we see such a high number in this tool
2015-10-08 16:30:00 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-08 16:30:15 fib1618: let me expand the time axis
2015-10-08 16:31:00 fib1618: once again...it's the highest level since the 2012 summer lows
2015-10-08 16:31:32 fib1618: and that was good for around 3800 points on the NYA
2015-10-08 16:32:15 fib1618: we also see that we moved above the horizontal resistance point seen in mid July
2015-10-08 16:32:32 fib1618: and up and through the -250 level as well
2015-10-08 16:32:40 fib1618: so a visit with the zero line is the near term expectation there
2015-10-08 16:32:55 fib1618: also of note
2015-10-08 16:33:06 fib1618: is that we now have bull divergence in place with the MCO
2015-10-08 16:33:07 fib1618: and
2015-10-08 16:33:31 fib1618: we now have bull divergence in place with the NYSE breadth MCSUM by way of moving above this same horizontal resistance point
2015-10-08 16:33:42 fib1618: so we have everything now in gear to the upside now
2015-10-08 16:33:58 fib1618: and a challenge of the all time price highs is now to be expected
2015-10-08 16:34:29 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2015-10-08 16:35:21 fib1618: and we see that we haven't as yet broke above the declining tops line controlling the price pattern of the NYA as yet
2015-10-08 16:35:35 fib1618: but with this break above resistance in the MCSUM
2015-10-08 16:35:55 fib1618: there shouldn't be any problems now in doing so
2015-10-08 16:36:08 fib1618: as far as our within a corrective structure
2015-10-08 16:36:14 fib1618: today's higher high in the MCO
2015-10-08 16:36:29 fib1618: along with the higher close compared to the mid September price top
2015-10-08 16:36:35 fib1618: now takes this idea out of the picture
2015-10-08 16:36:49 fib1618: as we have solid confirmation now of an uptrend in progress
2015-10-08 16:37:50 fib1618: if we take our angle of descent and apply a line connecting the mid August tops seen prior to the crash
2015-10-08 16:38:15 fib1618: and we see that the price action closed right on this line today
2015-10-08 16:38:27 fib1618: and we should see a break above this resistance as soon as tomorrow
2015-10-08 16:38:45 fib1618: remember all those historic low ISEE numbers earlier this month?
2015-10-08 16:38:48 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-08 16:39:05 fib1618: remember those very low TRIN numbers?
2015-10-08 16:39:15 fib1618: this is the fuel that drives prices
2015-10-08 16:39:22 fib1618: and now that we're getting higher highs
2015-10-08 16:39:22 rite01: all in a row
2015-10-08 16:39:32 fib1618: this is no longer made up of short covering
2015-10-08 16:39:39 fib1618: we're seeing fresh buying now
2015-10-08 16:39:40 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-08 16:39:44 fib1618: yesterday was the tell
2015-10-08 16:39:59 fib1618: as it was the first time we saw good solid buying in a while
2015-10-08 16:40:46 fib1618: as the TRIN came in at around .75
2015-10-08 16:41:24 fib1618: which, when you're around .80, is more buying that it would be short covering when we see numbers above .50 (for example)
2015-10-08 16:42:09 fib1618: looking at a simple price chart itself of the NYA
2015-10-08 16:42:17 fib1618: and applying a 20/50/200 EMA
2015-10-08 16:42:54 fib1618: and we see that we have now moved up and through both the 20 day and 50 day EMA's
2015-10-08 16:43:25 fib1618: with the 200 day EMA still above current levels at the 10,628 level
2015-10-08 16:43:38 fib1618: this would then be our initial price target with this thrust
2015-10-08 16:43:51 fib1618: after we see some sort of snapback to or toward the 50 day EMA first
2015-10-08 16:44:02 fib1618: in the unlikely event that we don't snapback
2015-10-08 16:44:19 fib1618: this would then indicate an even more powerful market sequence being initiated here
2015-10-08 16:44:22 fib1618: but again
2015-10-08 16:44:49 fib1618: we do want to see how the other indices are doing...especially the NASDAQ Composite
2015-10-08 16:44:53 fib1618: so let's move on
2015-10-08 16:45:04 fib1618: OK..
2015-10-08 16:45:13 fib1618: we got our higher high here as well in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-08 16:45:23 fib1618: with a reading today of +59
2015-10-08 16:46:00 fib1618: we also see that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM moved up and through the -500 level today
2015-10-08 16:46:38 fib1618: with the only thing still lacking here is for the 5% component to move beyond its current near zero line reading of +6
2015-10-08 16:47:04 fib1618: back to the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-10-08 16:47:15 fib1618: if we are to see good follow through over the next couple of days
2015-10-08 16:47:30 fib1618: and take out the horizontal top of September in this effort
2015-10-08 16:48:09 fib1618: then we would have a divergent structure in place here as well
2015-10-08 16:48:51 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor on the NASDAQ price chart
2015-10-08 16:49:10 fib1618: and connecting the closing ticks in the price bars
2015-10-08 16:49:30 fib1618: and we see that we finished right at this negative line of resistance today
2015-10-08 16:50:03 fib1618: looking at the EMA price chart
2015-10-08 16:50:12 fib1618: we also closed right at the 50 day EMA
2015-10-08 16:50:40 fib1618: with it running at 4820...and closing at 4810
2015-10-08 16:51:07 fib1618: so a bit more effort would be needed here to clear this next hurdle
2015-10-08 16:51:24 fib1618: and if successful
2015-10-08 16:51:28 fib1618: the 200 day is at 4848
2015-10-08 16:51:56 fib1618: doesn't seem possible that will see a strong continuation here without some sort of rest
2015-10-08 16:52:20 fib1618: but with the historic numbers we're now seeing with the NYSE
2015-10-08 16:52:32 fib1618: we have to be open to anything now
2015-10-08 16:54:48 fib1618: OK...moving to the NDX
2015-10-08 16:55:04 fib1618: and we also have a higher here as well
2015-10-08 16:55:24 fib1618: so good overall confirmation of the secondary stocks are now following the lead of the primaries
2015-10-08 16:55:38 fib1618: for the bears
2015-10-08 16:55:56 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM zero line must hold here
2015-10-08 16:56:20 fib1618: but with the increasing amplitude we're seeing in such a short amount of time
2015-10-08 16:56:36 fib1618: this same level of resistance is very likely to be taken out now regardless
2015-10-08 16:56:41 fib1618: and when it is taken out
2015-10-08 16:57:13 fib1618: we could see the same kind of price action we've seen over the last couple of days as the NYSE Traditional also broke above its zero line of resistance
2015-10-08 16:57:44 fib1618: looking at the close up chart of the NDX price bars
2015-10-08 16:58:03 fib1618: and it looks like we have one of those classic "double pump" patterns working here
2015-10-08 16:58:18 fib1618: where we should see a dramatic move to the upside in the next two days
2015-10-08 16:58:21 fib1618: speaking of which
2015-10-08 16:58:37 fib1618: the small point changes of Tuesday sure came through again, didn't they?
2015-10-08 16:59:10 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCO
2015-10-08 16:59:17 fib1618: and you can not only see
2015-10-08 16:59:36 fib1618: but you can (in a way) feel the tremendous of money moving in right now
2015-10-08 17:00:08 fib1618: with today's reading on the SPX of +115 the highest reading since..
2015-10-08 17:00:24 orange: wowwwwww
2015-10-08 17:00:50 fib1618: late October of last year
2015-10-08 17:01:06 fib1618: I know Matthew was impressed last Friday
2015-10-08 17:01:11 fib1618: how impressed are you now?
2015-10-08 17:01:42 orange: yea, more so... I knew there was a short term buy signal
2015-10-08 17:01:56 fib1618: well..it was a heck of a reversal
2015-10-08 17:02:11 orange: I actually closed out to 60% long in case things reversed
2015-10-08 17:02:13 fib1618: the doom was so thick you could cut it with the proverbial knife
2015-10-08 17:02:16 orange: but that was 2 days ago
2015-10-08 17:02:21 fib1618: well...
2015-10-08 17:02:29 fib1618: who expects this kind of thing to take place?
2015-10-08 17:02:49 fib1618: we had guidance that it could had been a bottom coming
2015-10-08 17:03:17 fib1618: but even last Thursday I, personally, was still looking for a better washout to sort things out
2015-10-08 17:03:19 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-08 17:03:34 fib1618: it was maybe a 30% chance of a bottom by yesterday?
2015-10-08 17:03:38 fib1618: and look at us now!
2015-10-08 17:03:46 fib1618: so the lesson here is
2015-10-08 17:03:53 fib1618: respect what the MCSUM tells you
2015-10-08 17:04:04 fib1618: it said early October
2015-10-08 17:04:11 fib1618: and once again it came through
2015-10-08 17:04:28 fib1618: remember how many decided that the mid September rally was the bottom?
2015-10-08 17:04:38 fib1618: but we held our ground there
2015-10-08 17:04:50 fib1618: and picked up some extra downside cash because of it
2015-10-08 17:05:00 fib1618: anyway
2015-10-08 17:05:12 fib1618: looking at the longer term SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-10-08 17:05:27 fib1618: and not only are we a day away from moving back above the zero line
2015-10-08 17:05:50 fib1618: but we closed today right at the declining tops line going back to February
2015-10-08 17:05:59 fib1618: and with the MCO as high as it is
2015-10-08 17:06:28 fib1618: this is the kind of strength that will allow an important double break out above these two different resistance levels to actually take place
2015-10-08 17:06:51 fib1618: this alone should force you to re-examine any kind of bearish bias toward the market
2015-10-08 17:07:14 fib1618: and, yes, I'm impressed
2015-10-08 17:07:18 fib1618: very much so
2015-10-08 17:07:39 fib1618: and with the historic readings in the volume MCO right now
2015-10-08 17:07:57 fib1618: well...let's just move on and leave it at that
2015-10-08 17:08:14 fib1618: +133 in the OEX breadth MCO
2015-10-08 17:09:01 fib1618: we should also point out that our expectation of further price decay, based on the leadership of the prime large cap issues, looks to be not working this time around
2015-10-08 17:09:21 fib1618: that it's looking like the brass is leading the charge when all other lights had seemed to burned out
2015-10-08 17:09:28 fib1618: very instructive
2015-10-08 17:09:37 fib1618: and very humbling as a technician
2015-10-08 17:10:10 fib1618: showing that there will be times in which things don't quite match up to something that it learned over time
2015-10-08 17:10:14 fib1618: and it also shows
2015-10-08 17:10:51 fib1618: that every single price sequence can be, and most times is, as unique and individual compared to anything else
2015-10-08 17:11:02 fib1618: and why
2015-10-08 17:11:16 fib1618: we never get bored with the markets
2015-10-08 17:11:32 fib1618: +139 now on the Dow breadth MCO
2015-10-08 17:11:48 fib1618: and we moved up and through the Dow breadth MCSUM zero line today
2015-10-08 17:12:06 fib1618: so a buy signal there is generated
2015-10-08 17:12:23 fib1618: looks like we're going to 18,000 first
2015-10-08 17:12:54 fib1618: wow...higher highs in the MID breadth MCO
2015-10-08 17:13:13 fib1618: and a break above the mid September highs in the MID breadth MCSUM as well
2015-10-08 17:13:26 fib1618: and with that
2015-10-08 17:13:48 fib1618: the price action moved and closed above its 50 day EMA
2015-10-08 17:14:07 fib1618: again..these things work together to accomplish an objective
2015-10-08 17:14:26 fib1618: wow..SML breadth MCO has joined the party
2015-10-08 17:14:48 fib1618: but we had an inkling that something was up with the SML volume MCO already moving to a higher high on Tuesday
2015-10-08 17:15:18 fib1618: and even the TM is at a new high point of +77
2015-10-08 17:15:30 fib1618: can't remember the last time we've seen this level...let me check
2015-10-08 17:16:01 fib1618: like the other data
2015-10-08 17:16:16 fib1618: October of last year and, before that, the summer of 2012
2015-10-08 17:16:28 fib1618: now the difference here with last year
2015-10-08 17:16:50 fib1618: is that we had moved after tracing a divergent bottom
2015-10-08 17:17:16 fib1618: and a minor one occured in 2012
2015-10-08 17:17:45 fib1618: give a moment so that I can find another time where we've had this strong of a divergent low with this kind of thrust - one sec
2015-10-08 17:18:27 fib1618: 2009
2015-10-08 17:18:37 fib1618: "stunner"
2015-10-08 17:18:46 fib1618: so....
2015-10-08 17:18:53 fib1618: let's see now
2015-10-08 17:19:23 fib1618: we're seeing breadth thrusts now to a degree that last happened in 2009
2015-10-08 17:19:44 fib1618: if you're an Elliott practitioner
2015-10-08 17:20:22 fib1618: you know that these new highs, when compared historically, point to the beginning point of a larger impulse rally
2015-10-08 17:20:25 fib1618: now...
2015-10-08 17:20:32 fib1618: if the last one was in 2009
2015-10-08 17:20:56 fib1618: wow...the price pattern is not at all textbook here as far as a preferred labeling
2015-10-08 17:21:01 fib1618: so let's just say
2015-10-08 17:21:12 fib1618: based on the guidelines laid out
2015-10-08 17:22:39 fib1618: and the historical significance of our being able to move within 8 trading days of generating an EMA Zweig Breadth Thrust signal
2015-10-08 17:23:03 fib1618: one would think that we have just launched the same kind of multi year advance in the markets
2015-10-08 17:23:08 fib1618: is this even possible?
2015-10-08 17:23:13 fib1618: beats me
2015-10-08 17:23:29 fib1618: I've never seen this in 45 years
2015-10-08 17:23:37 fib1618: anyone else?
2015-10-08 17:23:55 rite01: maybe overseas money?
2015-10-08 17:24:02 fib1618: doesn't matter
2015-10-08 17:24:12 fib1618: but your idea is a sound one
2015-10-08 17:24:36 fib1618: where before we had an invisible fence around our economy and markets
2015-10-08 17:24:42 fib1618: today that's a whole different story
2015-10-08 17:24:48 rite01: sure just look at other major overseas markets
2015-10-08 17:24:54 fib1618: very true
2015-10-08 17:25:02 fib1618: everything is interconnected
2015-10-08 17:25:15 rite01: Now more than ever
2015-10-08 17:25:20 fib1618: which makes any kind of monetary policy rather weak in its context
2015-10-08 17:25:39 fib1618: anyway
2015-10-08 17:25:45 rite01: Didn't think about it that way... you're right
2015-10-08 17:25:55 fib1618: remember
2015-10-08 17:26:20 fib1618: while we were selling off because of expectation of just a 1/4% rise in short term rates
2015-10-08 17:26:35 fib1618: the rest of the world was pumping away at full speed
2015-10-08 17:26:41 fib1618: now...
2015-10-08 17:26:46 fib1618: gold is the key here
2015-10-08 17:27:03 fib1618: now I heard that it broke above resistance in the Euro last week
2015-10-08 17:27:20 fib1618: give me a moment...want to check my combo chart on gold cross rates
2015-10-08 17:29:25 fib1618: here you go - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat15/goldcombo100815.png
2015-10-08 17:30:06 fib1618: you can see how gold has been finding support over the last couple of months on some of the charts
2015-10-08 17:30:12 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-08 17:30:26 fib1618: gold has been declining for a while
2015-10-08 17:30:55 fib1618: and this suggests that any excess liquidity in the system has been put to work
2015-10-08 17:31:06 fib1618: now...if prices start to rise
2015-10-08 17:31:28 fib1618: this tells us that there is more capital moving back into the asset classes that can be handled
2015-10-08 17:31:37 fib1618: and when commodities, debt and equities become fully valued
2015-10-08 17:31:53 fib1618: these excesses move into gold as a sort of bypass
2015-10-08 17:32:21 fib1618: gold met it's downside symmetrical triangle objective of around $1100 in August
2015-10-08 17:32:37 fib1618: and though there is another target below it
2015-10-08 17:32:54 fib1618: any move above...oh, let's say...$1175
2015-10-08 17:33:04 rite01: $990ish was other target
2015-10-08 17:33:11 fib1618: will probably put that $985 target on hold for now
2015-10-08 17:33:20 fib1618: yep
2015-10-08 17:33:54 fib1618: you have respect the remarkable way money has moved in like a tsunami in the last 5 days
2015-10-08 17:34:20 fib1618: and it happened as fast as someone flipping a switch
2015-10-08 17:34:29 fib1618: could be
2015-10-08 17:34:50 fib1618: a concentrated global intervention?
2015-10-08 17:35:43 fib1618: especially given that the FED did NOT move interest rates higher at the last meeting
2015-10-08 17:36:39 fib1618: not one for conspiracy theories...but this one is interesting as far as the timing
2015-10-08 17:36:46 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-08 17:36:53 fib1618: it is what it is no matter how we got here
2015-10-08 17:37:06 fib1618: and unless everyone takes their toys and goes home
2015-10-08 17:37:34 fib1618: we have all the ingredients now that a tradable low in prices is behind us
2015-10-08 17:37:44 fib1618: and that we're back wearing bull horns
2015-10-08 17:37:54 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-10-08 17:38:49 fib1618: skipping over the XLY
2015-10-08 17:39:03 fib1618: look at the power of money moving into the XLP breadth MCSUM
2015-10-08 17:39:42 fib1618: as we have now reached "escape velocity" to the upside
2015-10-08 17:40:01 fib1618: this is really amazing
2015-10-08 17:40:18 fib1618: since the XLP breadth MCO has already been above its zero line for over a month now
2015-10-08 17:40:26 fib1618: and it's now accelerating to the upside?
2015-10-08 17:40:28 fib1618: wow
2015-10-08 17:40:59 fib1618: OK...the XLE is now on a solid buy signal
2015-10-08 17:41:11 fib1618: and we should all fill up our tanks with gas
2015-10-08 17:41:19 fib1618: because prices are about to move sharply higher
2015-10-08 17:41:46 fib1618: +182 on the XLE MCO?
2015-10-08 17:42:17 fib1618: and just look at the power of the XLE breadth MCSUM now because of this
2015-10-08 17:42:33 fib1618: as we moved up and through the -500 level now
2015-10-08 17:42:45 fib1618: heck..
2015-10-08 17:42:57 fib1618: we were close to a -1100 only last Thursday!
2015-10-08 17:43:02 fib1618: amazing
2015-10-08 17:43:35 fib1618: the internals are also on fire with the XLF breadth MCO
2015-10-08 17:43:51 fib1618: but the XLF price action itself hasn't reflected any of this at this point
2015-10-08 17:44:27 fib1618: SAR buy at 23.45
2015-10-08 17:44:46 fib1618: and the 50 day EMA is at 23.40
2015-10-08 17:45:56 fib1618: there's your buy stops...but I would look around at the individual components that make up the index as a better way to take advantage of what is going on "under the hood"
2015-10-08 17:46:11 fib1618: finally!
2015-10-08 17:46:20 fib1618: we've come to a chart that isn't looking so good here
2015-10-08 17:46:38 fib1618: and that's the XLV breadth MCO
2015-10-08 17:46:50 fib1618: which continues to buck this new found trend to the upside
2015-10-08 17:46:57 fib1618: you know
2015-10-08 17:46:59 fib1618: I wonder
2015-10-08 17:47:34 fib1618: if what's going with the budget, and the selection of a new Speaker of the House, is having its positive affects here
2015-10-08 17:48:00 fib1618: McCarthy pulled out and he was the heir apparent
2015-10-08 17:48:21 fib1618: and they have extended the budget into December
2015-10-08 17:48:29 fib1618: hmmm...
2015-10-08 17:48:44 fib1618: this is why people get in trouble with fundamentals
2015-10-08 17:48:53 fib1618: there's always a reason for something
2015-10-08 17:49:14 fib1618: and sometimes it affects the markets...and most times...it doesn't
2015-10-08 17:49:31 fib1618: wow...look at the XLI breadth MCO!
2015-10-08 17:49:38 fib1618: +145
2015-10-08 17:50:04 fib1618: so the Dow Industrials and Transports should see a continued recovery short term
2015-10-08 17:50:36 fib1618: higher high on the 13 day RSI on the Transports after finding support at the 50% line
2015-10-08 17:50:44 fib1618: what's not to like?
2015-10-08 17:50:54 fib1618: OMG
2015-10-08 17:51:01 fib1618: look at the XLB breadth MCO!
2015-10-08 17:51:18 fib1618: who broke the dam there?
2015-10-08 17:51:27 fib1618: this is unreal
2015-10-08 17:51:52 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM moved up and through its zero line today
2015-10-08 17:52:25 fib1618: and though the XLU breadth MCO hasn't moved to new highs
2015-10-08 17:52:40 fib1618: it does continue to trace out a complex bullish structure above its zero line
2015-10-08 17:52:51 fib1618: it's got to be some sort of cycle bottomed on Friday
2015-10-08 17:53:04 fib1618: i"ll have to do some research
2015-10-08 17:53:11 fib1618: anyway
2015-10-08 17:53:16 fib1618: all shorts that haven't been stopped out should now be covered
2015-10-08 17:53:29 fib1618: while we wait for some sort of breather to take place
2015-10-08 17:53:41 fib1618: if the BETS remains neutral on Friday
2015-10-08 17:54:22 fib1618: we should then concentrate our homework in looking for leading stocks in leading sectors to fully take advantage of this new impulse
2015-10-08 17:54:31 fib1618: wow
2015-10-08 17:54:36 fib1618: stunning
2015-10-08 17:54:51 fib1618: let's look at the OBV
2015-10-08 17:55:32 fib1618: CVI's continue to show a lot of buying
2015-10-08 17:55:47 fib1618: STVO's are now deeply "overbought"
2015-10-08 17:55:59 fib1618: while the VTO's have now crossed back above their respective zero lines
2015-10-08 17:56:28 fib1618: we're now likely not to see a completion of this price pattern sequence until the VTO's move to "overbought"
2015-10-08 17:56:53 fib1618: the NYSE Open 10 must be "overbought" now
2015-10-08 17:57:13 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .70
2015-10-08 17:57:26 fib1618: Open 10 at .78
2015-10-08 17:57:41 fib1618: so it's dangerous to move long right now...no need to chase
2015-10-08 17:58:01 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.02
2015-10-08 17:58:16 fib1618: Open 10 at .90
2015-10-08 17:58:18 fib1618: neutral
2015-10-08 17:58:30 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.06
2015-10-08 17:58:50 fib1618: Open 10 also neutral at .90
2015-10-08 17:58:58 fib1618: so...
2015-10-08 17:59:19 fib1618: what we do know right now is that we have a tradable bottom in place
2015-10-08 17:59:34 fib1618: that of 4-6 weeks in duration
2015-10-08 18:00:42 fib1618: all depending how we ease off of our ridiculously high "overbought" readings will tell us how long we should expect to see prices continue work off of the high amount of fuel being used that has gotten us to this point
2015-10-08 18:00:52 fib1618: keeping us on the caution side
2015-10-08 18:01:02 fib1618: as mentioned earlier in the chat
2015-10-08 18:01:22 fib1618: we also know that even though today's reading in the NYSE volume MCO is historically high
2015-10-08 18:01:45 fib1618: the higher numbers over the last 50 years turned out to be bear market rallies in the 1970's
2015-10-08 18:02:05 fib1618: but with the Zweig thrust
2015-10-08 18:02:32 fib1618: and how all encompassing money flow has been over the last couple of days
2015-10-08 18:03:01 fib1618: it looks like that the 2015 correctional sequence is now complete
2015-10-08 18:03:09 fib1618: and that new all time highs will eventually be seen
2015-10-08 18:03:14 fib1618: keeping in mind
2015-10-08 18:03:40 fib1618: that the NYSE Preferred advance/decline line continued to support a pattern of rising bottoms during this pull back
2015-10-08 18:04:15 fib1618: and was important information that once we did bottom, the market was likely to see a sharp advance out of those lows
2015-10-08 18:04:19 fib1618: and so far...so good
2015-10-08 18:04:20 fib1618: now...
2015-10-08 18:05:01 fib1618: we'll see if these new highs in the composite MCO on the NYSE translates into higher highs in the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line
2015-10-08 18:05:08 fib1618: and if so
2015-10-08 18:05:25 fib1618: then that promises us new price highs in the not too distant future
2015-10-08 18:05:32 fib1618: so we'll see how things look this weekend
2015-10-08 18:05:41 fib1618: but suffice it to say
2015-10-08 18:06:07 fib1618: this has been one eye opener of an advance
2015-10-08 18:06:23 fib1618: and we should follow its lead as long as it's going to lead us
2015-10-08 18:06:26 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-08 18:06:38 rite01: Any news on the Join Me site.  Astros 3 Royals 1 to nothing 2nd inning..
2015-10-08 18:07:05 fib1618: boy...I sure hope they kick KC in the behind
2015-10-08 18:07:07 tuna: with the strong mco's would you still expect a snapback to round numbers like 50
2015-10-08 18:07:16 fib1618: I really haven't had time to look at it Mike...I'm sorry
2015-10-08 18:07:33 fib1618: I am going to make it a priority though
2015-10-08 18:07:38 rite01: No problems just wanted you to know I'm really interested
2015-10-08 18:07:44 fib1618: I just need a couple more hours in the day
2015-10-08 18:07:49 fib1618: me too
2015-10-08 18:08:01 fib1618: they have made some great improvements though
2015-10-08 18:08:11 fib1618: and I would rather talk than type anyway
2015-10-08 18:08:25 fib1618: Lew...you there?
2015-10-08 18:08:38 rite01: Good question tuna
2015-10-08 18:09:10 fib1618: Joe - eventually...we're going to see the main engines on this rocket shut down
2015-10-08 18:09:19 fib1618: but we thought this would happen on Wednesday too
2015-10-08 18:09:23 fib1618: but it didn't
2015-10-08 18:09:29 fib1618: we "powered up"
2015-10-08 18:09:31 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-08 18:09:37 fib1618: the only thing I would suggest here
2015-10-08 18:09:53 fib1618: is to cover shorts if they haven't already been stopped out
2015-10-08 18:09:56 fib1618: step aside
2015-10-08 18:10:07 fib1618: and do some homework and have a plan here
2015-10-08 18:10:21 fib1618: the EMA's on the daily charts should provide some resistance here
2015-10-08 18:10:27 fib1618: but at the same time
2015-10-08 18:10:53 fib1618: there is enough power in the market now that all three of these same EMA's will taken out
2015-10-08 18:10:55 fib1618: in that case
2015-10-08 18:11:04 fib1618: look for the 200 day EMA to provide support after prices move above it
2015-10-08 18:11:18 fib1618: and once you get a higher high off of any snapback support
2015-10-08 18:11:45 fib1618: along with the short term EMA's moving back above this same longer term 200 day EMA
2015-10-08 18:11:57 fib1618: that would be your trigger for an intermediate term long position
2015-10-08 18:12:22 fib1618: keep in mind
2015-10-08 18:12:43 fib1618: that the move here has been so fast
2015-10-08 18:12:54 fib1618: that many issues have yet to catch up
2015-10-08 18:13:08 fib1618: there will be plenty of time to position trade here
2015-10-08 18:13:31 fib1618: all we know now is that there is enough support below us internally to support a strong uptrend in prices
2015-10-08 18:13:46 fib1618: one of which could last several months
2015-10-08 18:14:14 tuna: got it, thank you very much for the explanation
2015-10-08 18:16:07 fib1618: OK...anything else?
2015-10-08 18:16:41 rite01: Great session thank you
2015-10-08 18:16:47 fib1618: you're welcome
2015-10-08 18:16:56 fib1618: it's all very exciting
2015-10-08 18:17:03 fib1618: we'll see how far it takes us
2015-10-08 18:17:09 fib1618: OK...I'm going to take off
2015-10-08 18:17:15 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend
2015-10-08 18:17:21 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2015-10-08 18:17:22 fib1618: good night
2015-10-08 18:17:29 rite01: Good night everyone


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch