Registered: 1101777014 Posts: 4,784
Reply with quote #1
2015-10-08 16:00:07 fib1618: gooooooooood day!
2015-10-08 16:00:13 fib1618: how is everyone? 2015-10-08 16:00:22 thespookyone: Fine, and you? 2015-10-08 16:00:26 fib1618: excited! 2015-10-08 16:00:54 rite01: I guess so 2015-10-08 16:01:03 fib1618: why you "guess so"? 2015-10-08 16:01:46 rite01: Market action today or got a big order in today! 2015-10-08 16:02:04 fib1618: long? 2015-10-08 16:02:11 fib1618: or me? 2015-10-08 16:02:13 rite01: of course 2015-10-08 16:02:16 fib1618: I'm excited about the market 2015-10-08 16:02:23 fib1618: we're doing historic things now 2015-10-08 16:02:35 fib1618: haven't' seen the data 2015-10-08 16:02:53 rite01: i know 2015-10-08 16:02:59 fib1618: but it's a very good chance now that our tradable bottom came in right on schedule 2015-10-08 16:03:10 rite01: Lew must be making a killing 2015-10-08 16:03:21 thespookyone: "not bad" 2015-10-08 16:03:43 thespookyone: caught a couple real nice trades today 2015-10-08 16:04:11 fib1618: 2015-10-08 16:04:32 fib1618: he has to make a killing to keep up on the utilities he needs to run his island 2015-10-08 16:05:06 thespookyone: somebody does, LOL was trading CELG off the bottom 2015-10-08 16:05:12 rite01: only still one island? 2015-10-08 16:05:21 fib1618: it's a big island 2015-10-08 16:05:23 fib1618: 2015-10-08 16:05:40 fib1618: I think he has two towns named on it...Hilo and Kona 2015-10-08 16:06:03 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2015-10-08 16:06:26 fib1618: I will check the BETS... 2015-10-08 16:07:22 fib1618: -15 2015-10-08 16:07:24 fib1618: cash 2015-10-08 16:07:40 rite01: Yes one...From the McClellan's how could you have known the buy XLE at the bottom? 2015-10-08 16:07:47 fib1618: 2015-10-08 16:08:01 fib1618: weren't you listening? 2015-10-08 16:08:14 fib1618: all kidding aside 2015-10-08 16:08:17 fib1618: there were many reasons 2015-10-08 16:08:28 fib1618: without even looking at the data 2015-10-08 16:08:37 fib1618: remember how bearish sentiment was? 2015-10-08 16:08:42 rite01: Yes 2015-10-08 16:08:48 fib1618: remember how we were diverging? 2015-10-08 16:09:08 fib1618: just those two things alone suggest some sort of bottom 2015-10-08 16:09:24 fib1618: but we also said that it would take time to "catch on" 2015-10-08 16:09:39 rite01: well everything was diverging about he same time 2015-10-08 16:09:51 fib1618: yes, it was 2015-10-08 16:10:19 fib1618: OK...let's start off with some important information 2015-10-08 16:10:41 fib1618: we had a Zweig breadth thrust buy signal today on the EMA according to Stock Charts 2015-10-08 16:11:06 rite01: and Both of my trusted sentiment AAII and TSP signaled same week about one day before the bottom 2015-10-08 16:11:10 fib1618: I'm waiting now for confirmation on this without the inclusion of unchanged issues 2015-10-08 16:11:18 fib1618: but if this confirmed 2015-10-08 16:11:26 fib1618: it would be our first one since March of 2009 (note: it was confirmed...see message board) 2015-10-08 16:11:35 fib1618: second 2015-10-08 16:11:54 fib1618: RightField made a post today on the TW message board about the NYSE Volume MCO 2015-10-08 16:12:11 fib1618: as it closed today at its highest level since 2009's kick off 2015-10-08 16:12:42 fib1618: and the third highest daily reading in 35 years 2015-10-08 16:12:44 fib1618: now... 2015-10-08 16:12:52 fib1618: I went back a bit further to 1965 2015-10-08 16:13:31 fib1618: and today's reading of +130 2015-10-08 16:13:58 fib1618: is actually the fifth highest reading in 50 years 2015-10-08 16:14:08 fib1618: some other higher readings were 2015-10-08 16:14:33 fib1618: 1976 at +135 2015-10-08 16:14:47 fib1618: 1971 at +142 2015-10-08 16:14:51 fib1618: 1974 at +152 2015-10-08 16:15:05 fib1618: now...we know that those readings came in during the primary bear market of that time 2015-10-08 16:15:20 fib1618: so although we have this high number working 2015-10-08 16:15:35 fib1618: it doesn't necessarily mean a longer term bottom...it could be a bear market rally 2015-10-08 16:15:38 fib1618: furthermore 2015-10-08 16:15:45 fib1618: on a weekly time scale 2015-10-08 16:15:54 fib1618: if the +130 holds up on Friday 2015-10-08 16:16:23 fib1618: it would be highest reading in 50 years the 2015-10-08 16:16:42 fib1618: checking the data for the number on the previous high point - one moment 2015-10-08 16:17:48 fib1618: previous was +128 2015-10-08 16:18:09 fib1618: back in 1975 2015-10-08 16:18:15 fib1618: now... 2015-10-08 16:18:28 fib1618: we know that sentiment at the lows was as bearish as the 2009 period 2015-10-08 16:18:43 fib1618: so that would fit for a longer term low 2015-10-08 16:18:53 fib1618: but if this breadth thrust is confirmed (which it is) 2015-10-08 16:19:38 fib1618: then the low expected for the beginning of October that was suggested by the NYSE breadth MCSUM back in the middle of August was spot on 2015-10-08 16:19:57 fib1618: so as we go through the data tonight 2015-10-08 16:20:43 fib1618: what we want to see is that a great majority of the indices we cover have moved to a higher high as well on their MCO's 2015-10-08 16:20:49 fib1618: the more we see 2015-10-08 16:20:55 fib1618: the better for the foundational low 2015-10-08 16:21:17 fib1618: as we had a lessening of selling pressure going into the 10/2 low 2015-10-08 16:21:34 fib1618: and with respect to the broadest based measure 2015-10-08 16:21:40 fib1618: the New York Composite Index 2015-10-08 16:21:49 fib1618: we had strong bull divergence in place 2015-10-08 16:22:08 fib1618: leaving us looking for a "show me" moment over the last two days 2015-10-08 16:22:49 fib1618: and with breadth today over 3:1 to the good 2015-10-08 16:22:56 fib1618: after being already as extended as we've been in the MCO's 2015-10-08 16:23:32 fib1618: this is an important statement of strength that should not be dismissed 2015-10-08 16:23:42 fib1618: OK...with all that said 2015-10-08 16:23:54 fib1618: let's get SC up and see if we have to work with 2015-10-08 16:24:29 fib1618: after falling back a bit on Tuesday 2015-10-08 16:24:45 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO regained its momentum and moved to higher highs over the last two days 2015-10-08 16:24:59 fib1618: with a reading today of +110 2015-10-08 16:25:36 fib1618: that is now the highest reading since the 2012 lows 2015-10-08 16:25:51 fib1618: and we know what happened to prices after that breadth thrust 2015-10-08 16:26:18 fib1618: we also have a strong buy signal as well with the components now 2015-10-08 16:27:12 fib1618: and we can see the immense strength of money moving into this group of stocks with the large individual upward postings seen in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM 2015-10-08 16:28:24 fib1618: moving first to the NYSE Composite Traditional breadth MCSUM 2015-10-08 16:28:36 fib1618: and we see that it moved up and through its zero line on Wednesday 2015-10-08 16:28:49 fib1618: and saw excellent follow though to this breakout today 2015-10-08 16:29:07 fib1618: moving to the Ratio Adjusted version 2015-10-08 16:29:37 fib1618: and we see that the NYSE Composite breadth MCO is now in deeply "overbought" territory with a reading of +95 2015-10-08 16:29:58 fib1618: and it's not often that we see such a high number in this tool 2015-10-08 16:30:00 fib1618: in fact 2015-10-08 16:30:15 fib1618: let me expand the time axis 2015-10-08 16:31:00 fib1618: once again...it's the highest level since the 2012 summer lows 2015-10-08 16:31:32 fib1618: and that was good for around 3800 points on the NYA 2015-10-08 16:32:15 fib1618: we also see that we moved above the horizontal resistance point seen in mid July 2015-10-08 16:32:32 fib1618: and up and through the -250 level as well 2015-10-08 16:32:40 fib1618: so a visit with the zero line is the near term expectation there 2015-10-08 16:32:55 fib1618: also of note 2015-10-08 16:33:06 fib1618: is that we now have bull divergence in place with the MCO 2015-10-08 16:33:07 fib1618: and 2015-10-08 16:33:31 fib1618: we now have bull divergence in place with the NYSE breadth MCSUM by way of moving above this same horizontal resistance point 2015-10-08 16:33:42 fib1618: so we have everything now in gear to the upside now 2015-10-08 16:33:58 fib1618: and a challenge of the all time price highs is now to be expected 2015-10-08 16:34:29 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor 2015-10-08 16:35:21 fib1618: and we see that we haven't as yet broke above the declining tops line controlling the price pattern of the NYA as yet 2015-10-08 16:35:35 fib1618: but with this break above resistance in the MCSUM 2015-10-08 16:35:55 fib1618: there shouldn't be any problems now in doing so 2015-10-08 16:36:08 fib1618: as far as our within a corrective structure 2015-10-08 16:36:14 fib1618: today's higher high in the MCO 2015-10-08 16:36:29 fib1618: along with the higher close compared to the mid September price top 2015-10-08 16:36:35 fib1618: now takes this idea out of the picture 2015-10-08 16:36:49 fib1618: as we have solid confirmation now of an uptrend in progress 2015-10-08 16:37:50 fib1618: if we take our angle of descent and apply a line connecting the mid August tops seen prior to the crash 2015-10-08 16:38:15 fib1618: and we see that the price action closed right on this line today 2015-10-08 16:38:27 fib1618: and we should see a break above this resistance as soon as tomorrow 2015-10-08 16:38:45 fib1618: remember all those historic low ISEE numbers earlier this month? 2015-10-08 16:38:48 fib1618: 2015-10-08 16:39:05 fib1618: remember those very low TRIN numbers? 2015-10-08 16:39:15 fib1618: this is the fuel that drives prices 2015-10-08 16:39:22 fib1618: and now that we're getting higher highs 2015-10-08 16:39:22 rite01: all in a row 2015-10-08 16:39:32 fib1618: this is no longer made up of short covering 2015-10-08 16:39:39 fib1618: we're seeing fresh buying now 2015-10-08 16:39:40 fib1618: in fact 2015-10-08 16:39:44 fib1618: yesterday was the tell 2015-10-08 16:39:59 fib1618: as it was the first time we saw good solid buying in a while 2015-10-08 16:40:46 fib1618: as the TRIN came in at around .75 2015-10-08 16:41:24 fib1618: which, when you're around .80, is more buying that it would be short covering when we see numbers above .50 (for example) 2015-10-08 16:42:09 fib1618: looking at a simple price chart itself of the NYA 2015-10-08 16:42:17 fib1618: and applying a 20/50/200 EMA 2015-10-08 16:42:54 fib1618: and we see that we have now moved up and through both the 20 day and 50 day EMA's 2015-10-08 16:43:25 fib1618: with the 200 day EMA still above current levels at the 10,628 level 2015-10-08 16:43:38 fib1618: this would then be our initial price target with this thrust 2015-10-08 16:43:51 fib1618: after we see some sort of snapback to or toward the 50 day EMA first 2015-10-08 16:44:02 fib1618: in the unlikely event that we don't snapback 2015-10-08 16:44:19 fib1618: this would then indicate an even more powerful market sequence being initiated here 2015-10-08 16:44:22 fib1618: but again 2015-10-08 16:44:49 fib1618: we do want to see how the other indices are doing...especially the NASDAQ Composite 2015-10-08 16:44:53 fib1618: so let's move on 2015-10-08 16:45:04 fib1618: OK.. 2015-10-08 16:45:13 fib1618: we got our higher high here as well in the NASDAQ breadth MCO 2015-10-08 16:45:23 fib1618: with a reading today of +59 2015-10-08 16:46:00 fib1618: we also see that the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM moved up and through the -500 level today 2015-10-08 16:46:38 fib1618: with the only thing still lacking here is for the 5% component to move beyond its current near zero line reading of +6 2015-10-08 16:47:04 fib1618: back to the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM 2015-10-08 16:47:15 fib1618: if we are to see good follow through over the next couple of days 2015-10-08 16:47:30 fib1618: and take out the horizontal top of September in this effort 2015-10-08 16:48:09 fib1618: then we would have a divergent structure in place here as well 2015-10-08 16:48:51 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor on the NASDAQ price chart 2015-10-08 16:49:10 fib1618: and connecting the closing ticks in the price bars 2015-10-08 16:49:30 fib1618: and we see that we finished right at this negative line of resistance today 2015-10-08 16:50:03 fib1618: looking at the EMA price chart 2015-10-08 16:50:12 fib1618: we also closed right at the 50 day EMA 2015-10-08 16:50:40 fib1618: with it running at 4820...and closing at 4810 2015-10-08 16:51:07 fib1618: so a bit more effort would be needed here to clear this next hurdle 2015-10-08 16:51:24 fib1618: and if successful 2015-10-08 16:51:28 fib1618: the 200 day is at 4848 2015-10-08 16:51:56 fib1618: doesn't seem possible that will see a strong continuation here without some sort of rest 2015-10-08 16:52:20 fib1618: but with the historic numbers we're now seeing with the NYSE 2015-10-08 16:52:32 fib1618: we have to be open to anything now 2015-10-08 16:54:48 fib1618: OK...moving to the NDX 2015-10-08 16:55:04 fib1618: and we also have a higher here as well 2015-10-08 16:55:24 fib1618: so good overall confirmation of the secondary stocks are now following the lead of the primaries 2015-10-08 16:55:38 fib1618: for the bears 2015-10-08 16:55:56 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM zero line must hold here 2015-10-08 16:56:20 fib1618: but with the increasing amplitude we're seeing in such a short amount of time 2015-10-08 16:56:36 fib1618: this same level of resistance is very likely to be taken out now regardless 2015-10-08 16:56:41 fib1618: and when it is taken out 2015-10-08 16:57:13 fib1618: we could see the same kind of price action we've seen over the last couple of days as the NYSE Traditional also broke above its zero line of resistance 2015-10-08 16:57:44 fib1618: looking at the close up chart of the NDX price bars 2015-10-08 16:58:03 fib1618: and it looks like we have one of those classic "double pump" patterns working here 2015-10-08 16:58:18 fib1618: where we should see a dramatic move to the upside in the next two days 2015-10-08 16:58:21 fib1618: speaking of which 2015-10-08 16:58:37 fib1618: the small point changes of Tuesday sure came through again, didn't they? 2015-10-08 16:59:10 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCO 2015-10-08 16:59:17 fib1618: and you can not only see 2015-10-08 16:59:36 fib1618: but you can (in a way) feel the tremendous of money moving in right now 2015-10-08 17:00:08 fib1618: with today's reading on the SPX of +115 the highest reading since.. 2015-10-08 17:00:24 orange: wowwwwww 2015-10-08 17:00:50 fib1618: late October of last year 2015-10-08 17:01:06 fib1618: I know Matthew was impressed last Friday 2015-10-08 17:01:11 fib1618: how impressed are you now? 2015-10-08 17:01:42 orange: yea, more so... I knew there was a short term buy signal 2015-10-08 17:01:56 fib1618: well..it was a heck of a reversal 2015-10-08 17:02:11 orange: I actually closed out to 60% long in case things reversed 2015-10-08 17:02:13 fib1618: the doom was so thick you could cut it with the proverbial knife 2015-10-08 17:02:16 orange: but that was 2 days ago 2015-10-08 17:02:21 fib1618: well... 2015-10-08 17:02:29 fib1618: who expects this kind of thing to take place? 2015-10-08 17:02:49 fib1618: we had guidance that it could had been a bottom coming 2015-10-08 17:03:17 fib1618: but even last Thursday I, personally, was still looking for a better washout to sort things out 2015-10-08 17:03:19 fib1618: in fact 2015-10-08 17:03:34 fib1618: it was maybe a 30% chance of a bottom by yesterday? 2015-10-08 17:03:38 fib1618: and look at us now! 2015-10-08 17:03:46 fib1618: so the lesson here is 2015-10-08 17:03:53 fib1618: respect what the MCSUM tells you 2015-10-08 17:04:04 fib1618: it said early October 2015-10-08 17:04:11 fib1618: and once again it came through 2015-10-08 17:04:28 fib1618: remember how many decided that the mid September rally was the bottom? 2015-10-08 17:04:38 fib1618: but we held our ground there 2015-10-08 17:04:50 fib1618: and picked up some extra downside cash because of it 2015-10-08 17:05:00 fib1618: anyway 2015-10-08 17:05:12 fib1618: looking at the longer term SPX breadth MCSUM 2015-10-08 17:05:27 fib1618: and not only are we a day away from moving back above the zero line 2015-10-08 17:05:50 fib1618: but we closed today right at the declining tops line going back to February 2015-10-08 17:05:59 fib1618: and with the MCO as high as it is 2015-10-08 17:06:28 fib1618: this is the kind of strength that will allow an important double break out above these two different resistance levels to actually take place 2015-10-08 17:06:51 fib1618: this alone should force you to re-examine any kind of bearish bias toward the market 2015-10-08 17:07:14 fib1618: and, yes, I'm impressed 2015-10-08 17:07:18 fib1618: very much so 2015-10-08 17:07:39 fib1618: and with the historic readings in the volume MCO right now 2015-10-08 17:07:57 fib1618: well...let's just move on and leave it at that 2015-10-08 17:08:14 fib1618: +133 in the OEX breadth MCO 2015-10-08 17:09:01 fib1618: we should also point out that our expectation of further price decay, based on the leadership of the prime large cap issues, looks to be not working this time around 2015-10-08 17:09:21 fib1618: that it's looking like the brass is leading the charge when all other lights had seemed to burned out 2015-10-08 17:09:28 fib1618: very instructive 2015-10-08 17:09:37 fib1618: and very humbling as a technician 2015-10-08 17:10:10 fib1618: showing that there will be times in which things don't quite match up to something that it learned over time 2015-10-08 17:10:14 fib1618: and it also shows 2015-10-08 17:10:51 fib1618: that every single price sequence can be, and most times is, as unique and individual compared to anything else 2015-10-08 17:11:02 fib1618: and why 2015-10-08 17:11:16 fib1618: we never get bored with the markets 2015-10-08 17:11:32 fib1618: +139 now on the Dow breadth MCO 2015-10-08 17:11:48 fib1618: and we moved up and through the Dow breadth MCSUM zero line today 2015-10-08 17:12:06 fib1618: so a buy signal there is generated 2015-10-08 17:12:23 fib1618: looks like we're going to 18,000 first 2015-10-08 17:12:54 fib1618: wow...higher highs in the MID breadth MCO 2015-10-08 17:13:13 fib1618: and a break above the mid September highs in the MID breadth MCSUM as well 2015-10-08 17:13:26 fib1618: and with that 2015-10-08 17:13:48 fib1618: the price action moved and closed above its 50 day EMA 2015-10-08 17:14:07 fib1618: again..these things work together to accomplish an objective 2015-10-08 17:14:26 fib1618: wow..SML breadth MCO has joined the party 2015-10-08 17:14:48 fib1618: but we had an inkling that something was up with the SML volume MCO already moving to a higher high on Tuesday 2015-10-08 17:15:18 fib1618: and even the TM is at a new high point of +77 2015-10-08 17:15:30 fib1618: can't remember the last time we've seen this level...let me check 2015-10-08 17:16:01 fib1618: like the other data 2015-10-08 17:16:16 fib1618: October of last year and, before that, the summer of 2012 2015-10-08 17:16:28 fib1618: now the difference here with last year 2015-10-08 17:16:50 fib1618: is that we had moved after tracing a divergent bottom 2015-10-08 17:17:16 fib1618: and a minor one occured in 2012 2015-10-08 17:17:45 fib1618: give a moment so that I can find another time where we've had this strong of a divergent low with this kind of thrust - one sec 2015-10-08 17:18:27 fib1618: 2009 2015-10-08 17:18:37 fib1618: "stunner" 2015-10-08 17:18:46 fib1618: so.... 2015-10-08 17:18:53 fib1618: let's see now 2015-10-08 17:19:23 fib1618: we're seeing breadth thrusts now to a degree that last happened in 2009 2015-10-08 17:19:44 fib1618: if you're an Elliott practitioner 2015-10-08 17:20:22 fib1618: you know that these new highs, when compared historically, point to the beginning point of a larger impulse rally 2015-10-08 17:20:25 fib1618: now... 2015-10-08 17:20:32 fib1618: if the last one was in 2009 2015-10-08 17:20:56 fib1618: wow...the price pattern is not at all textbook here as far as a preferred labeling 2015-10-08 17:21:01 fib1618: so let's just say 2015-10-08 17:21:12 fib1618: based on the guidelines laid out 2015-10-08 17:22:39 fib1618: and the historical significance of our being able to move within 8 trading days of generating an EMA Zweig Breadth Thrust signal 2015-10-08 17:23:03 fib1618: one would think that we have just launched the same kind of multi year advance in the markets 2015-10-08 17:23:08 fib1618: is this even possible? 2015-10-08 17:23:13 fib1618: beats me 2015-10-08 17:23:29 fib1618: I've never seen this in 45 years 2015-10-08 17:23:37 fib1618: anyone else? 2015-10-08 17:23:55 rite01: maybe overseas money? 2015-10-08 17:24:02 fib1618: doesn't matter 2015-10-08 17:24:12 fib1618: but your idea is a sound one 2015-10-08 17:24:36 fib1618: where before we had an invisible fence around our economy and markets 2015-10-08 17:24:42 fib1618: today that's a whole different story 2015-10-08 17:24:48 rite01: sure just look at other major overseas markets 2015-10-08 17:24:54 fib1618: very true 2015-10-08 17:25:02 fib1618: everything is interconnected 2015-10-08 17:25:15 rite01: Now more than ever 2015-10-08 17:25:20 fib1618: which makes any kind of monetary policy rather weak in its context 2015-10-08 17:25:39 fib1618: anyway 2015-10-08 17:25:45 rite01: Didn't think about it that way... you're right 2015-10-08 17:25:55 fib1618: remember 2015-10-08 17:26:20 fib1618: while we were selling off because of expectation of just a 1/4% rise in short term rates 2015-10-08 17:26:35 fib1618: the rest of the world was pumping away at full speed 2015-10-08 17:26:41 fib1618: now... 2015-10-08 17:26:46 fib1618: gold is the key here 2015-10-08 17:27:03 fib1618: now I heard that it broke above resistance in the Euro last week 2015-10-08 17:27:20 fib1618: give me a moment...want to check my combo chart on gold cross rates 2015-10-08 17:29:25 fib1618: here you go - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat15/goldcombo100815.png 2015-10-08 17:30:06 fib1618: you can see how gold has been finding support over the last couple of months on some of the charts 2015-10-08 17:30:12 fib1618: in any event 2015-10-08 17:30:26 fib1618: gold has been declining for a while 2015-10-08 17:30:55 fib1618: and this suggests that any excess liquidity in the system has been put to work 2015-10-08 17:31:06 fib1618: now...if prices start to rise 2015-10-08 17:31:28 fib1618: this tells us that there is more capital moving back into the asset classes that can be handled 2015-10-08 17:31:37 fib1618: and when commodities, debt and equities become fully valued 2015-10-08 17:31:53 fib1618: these excesses move into gold as a sort of bypass 2015-10-08 17:32:21 fib1618: gold met it's downside symmetrical triangle objective of around $1100 in August 2015-10-08 17:32:37 fib1618: and though there is another target below it 2015-10-08 17:32:54 fib1618: any move above...oh, let's say...$1175 2015-10-08 17:33:04 rite01: $990ish was other target 2015-10-08 17:33:11 fib1618: will probably put that $985 target on hold for now 2015-10-08 17:33:20 fib1618: yep 2015-10-08 17:33:54 fib1618: you have respect the remarkable way money has moved in like a tsunami in the last 5 days 2015-10-08 17:34:20 fib1618: and it happened as fast as someone flipping a switch 2015-10-08 17:34:29 fib1618: could be 2015-10-08 17:34:50 fib1618: a concentrated global intervention? 2015-10-08 17:35:43 fib1618: especially given that the FED did NOT move interest rates higher at the last meeting 2015-10-08 17:36:39 fib1618: not one for conspiracy theories...but this one is interesting as far as the timing 2015-10-08 17:36:46 fib1618: in any event 2015-10-08 17:36:53 fib1618: it is what it is no matter how we got here 2015-10-08 17:37:06 fib1618: and unless everyone takes their toys and goes home 2015-10-08 17:37:34 fib1618: we have all the ingredients now that a tradable low in prices is behind us 2015-10-08 17:37:44 fib1618: and that we're back wearing bull horns 2015-10-08 17:37:54 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing 2015-10-08 17:38:49 fib1618: skipping over the XLY 2015-10-08 17:39:03 fib1618: look at the power of money moving into the XLP breadth MCSUM 2015-10-08 17:39:42 fib1618: as we have now reached "escape velocity" to the upside 2015-10-08 17:40:01 fib1618: this is really amazing 2015-10-08 17:40:18 fib1618: since the XLP breadth MCO has already been above its zero line for over a month now 2015-10-08 17:40:26 fib1618: and it's now accelerating to the upside? 2015-10-08 17:40:28 fib1618: wow 2015-10-08 17:40:59 fib1618: OK...the XLE is now on a solid buy signal 2015-10-08 17:41:11 fib1618: and we should all fill up our tanks with gas 2015-10-08 17:41:19 fib1618: because prices are about to move sharply higher 2015-10-08 17:41:46 fib1618: +182 on the XLE MCO? 2015-10-08 17:42:17 fib1618: and just look at the power of the XLE breadth MCSUM now because of this 2015-10-08 17:42:33 fib1618: as we moved up and through the -500 level now 2015-10-08 17:42:45 fib1618: heck.. 2015-10-08 17:42:57 fib1618: we were close to a -1100 only last Thursday! 2015-10-08 17:43:02 fib1618: amazing 2015-10-08 17:43:35 fib1618: the internals are also on fire with the XLF breadth MCO 2015-10-08 17:43:51 fib1618: but the XLF price action itself hasn't reflected any of this at this point 2015-10-08 17:44:27 fib1618: SAR buy at 23.45 2015-10-08 17:44:46 fib1618: and the 50 day EMA is at 23.40 2015-10-08 17:45:56 fib1618: there's your buy stops...but I would look around at the individual components that make up the index as a better way to take advantage of what is going on "under the hood" 2015-10-08 17:46:11 fib1618: finally! 2015-10-08 17:46:20 fib1618: we've come to a chart that isn't looking so good here 2015-10-08 17:46:38 fib1618: and that's the XLV breadth MCO 2015-10-08 17:46:50 fib1618: which continues to buck this new found trend to the upside 2015-10-08 17:46:57 fib1618: you know 2015-10-08 17:46:59 fib1618: I wonder 2015-10-08 17:47:34 fib1618: if what's going with the budget, and the selection of a new Speaker of the House, is having its positive affects here 2015-10-08 17:48:00 fib1618: McCarthy pulled out and he was the heir apparent 2015-10-08 17:48:21 fib1618: and they have extended the budget into December 2015-10-08 17:48:29 fib1618: hmmm... 2015-10-08 17:48:44 fib1618: this is why people get in trouble with fundamentals 2015-10-08 17:48:53 fib1618: there's always a reason for something 2015-10-08 17:49:14 fib1618: and sometimes it affects the markets...and most times...it doesn't 2015-10-08 17:49:31 fib1618: wow...look at the XLI breadth MCO! 2015-10-08 17:49:38 fib1618: +145 2015-10-08 17:50:04 fib1618: so the Dow Industrials and Transports should see a continued recovery short term 2015-10-08 17:50:36 fib1618: higher high on the 13 day RSI on the Transports after finding support at the 50% line 2015-10-08 17:50:44 fib1618: what's not to like? 2015-10-08 17:50:54 fib1618: OMG 2015-10-08 17:51:01 fib1618: look at the XLB breadth MCO! 2015-10-08 17:51:18 fib1618: who broke the dam there? 2015-10-08 17:51:27 fib1618: this is unreal 2015-10-08 17:51:52 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCSUM moved up and through its zero line today 2015-10-08 17:52:25 fib1618: and though the XLU breadth MCO hasn't moved to new highs 2015-10-08 17:52:40 fib1618: it does continue to trace out a complex bullish structure above its zero line 2015-10-08 17:52:51 fib1618: it's got to be some sort of cycle bottomed on Friday 2015-10-08 17:53:04 fib1618: i"ll have to do some research 2015-10-08 17:53:11 fib1618: anyway 2015-10-08 17:53:16 fib1618: all shorts that haven't been stopped out should now be covered 2015-10-08 17:53:29 fib1618: while we wait for some sort of breather to take place 2015-10-08 17:53:41 fib1618: if the BETS remains neutral on Friday 2015-10-08 17:54:22 fib1618: we should then concentrate our homework in looking for leading stocks in leading sectors to fully take advantage of this new impulse 2015-10-08 17:54:31 fib1618: wow 2015-10-08 17:54:36 fib1618: stunning 2015-10-08 17:54:51 fib1618: let's look at the OBV 2015-10-08 17:55:32 fib1618: CVI's continue to show a lot of buying 2015-10-08 17:55:47 fib1618: STVO's are now deeply "overbought" 2015-10-08 17:55:59 fib1618: while the VTO's have now crossed back above their respective zero lines 2015-10-08 17:56:28 fib1618: we're now likely not to see a completion of this price pattern sequence until the VTO's move to "overbought" 2015-10-08 17:56:53 fib1618: the NYSE Open 10 must be "overbought" now 2015-10-08 17:57:13 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .70 2015-10-08 17:57:26 fib1618: Open 10 at .78 2015-10-08 17:57:41 fib1618: so it's dangerous to move long right now...no need to chase 2015-10-08 17:58:01 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.02 2015-10-08 17:58:16 fib1618: Open 10 at .90 2015-10-08 17:58:18 fib1618: neutral 2015-10-08 17:58:30 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.06 2015-10-08 17:58:50 fib1618: Open 10 also neutral at .90 2015-10-08 17:58:58 fib1618: so... 2015-10-08 17:59:19 fib1618: what we do know right now is that we have a tradable bottom in place 2015-10-08 17:59:34 fib1618: that of 4-6 weeks in duration 2015-10-08 18:00:42 fib1618: all depending how we ease off of our ridiculously high "overbought" readings will tell us how long we should expect to see prices continue work off of the high amount of fuel being used that has gotten us to this point 2015-10-08 18:00:52 fib1618: keeping us on the caution side 2015-10-08 18:01:02 fib1618: as mentioned earlier in the chat 2015-10-08 18:01:22 fib1618: we also know that even though today's reading in the NYSE volume MCO is historically high 2015-10-08 18:01:45 fib1618: the higher numbers over the last 50 years turned out to be bear market rallies in the 1970's 2015-10-08 18:02:05 fib1618: but with the Zweig thrust 2015-10-08 18:02:32 fib1618: and how all encompassing money flow has been over the last couple of days 2015-10-08 18:03:01 fib1618: it looks like that the 2015 correctional sequence is now complete 2015-10-08 18:03:09 fib1618: and that new all time highs will eventually be seen 2015-10-08 18:03:14 fib1618: keeping in mind 2015-10-08 18:03:40 fib1618: that the NYSE Preferred advance/decline line continued to support a pattern of rising bottoms during this pull back 2015-10-08 18:04:15 fib1618: and was important information that once we did bottom, the market was likely to see a sharp advance out of those lows 2015-10-08 18:04:19 fib1618: and so far...so good 2015-10-08 18:04:20 fib1618: now... 2015-10-08 18:05:01 fib1618: we'll see if these new highs in the composite MCO on the NYSE translates into higher highs in the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line 2015-10-08 18:05:08 fib1618: and if so 2015-10-08 18:05:25 fib1618: then that promises us new price highs in the not too distant future 2015-10-08 18:05:32 fib1618: so we'll see how things look this weekend 2015-10-08 18:05:41 fib1618: but suffice it to say 2015-10-08 18:06:07 fib1618: this has been one eye opener of an advance 2015-10-08 18:06:23 fib1618: and we should follow its lead as long as it's going to lead us 2015-10-08 18:06:26 fib1618: anything else? 2015-10-08 18:06:38 rite01: Any news on the Join Me site. Astros 3 Royals 1 to nothing 2nd inning.. 2015-10-08 18:07:05 fib1618: boy...I sure hope they kick KC in the behind 2015-10-08 18:07:07 tuna: with the strong mco's would you still expect a snapback to round numbers like 50 2015-10-08 18:07:16 fib1618: I really haven't had time to look at it Mike...I'm sorry 2015-10-08 18:07:33 fib1618: I am going to make it a priority though 2015-10-08 18:07:38 rite01: No problems just wanted you to know I'm really interested 2015-10-08 18:07:44 fib1618: I just need a couple more hours in the day 2015-10-08 18:07:49 fib1618: me too 2015-10-08 18:08:01 fib1618: they have made some great improvements though 2015-10-08 18:08:11 fib1618: and I would rather talk than type anyway 2015-10-08 18:08:25 fib1618: Lew...you there? 2015-10-08 18:08:38 rite01: Good question tuna 2015-10-08 18:09:10 fib1618: Joe - eventually...we're going to see the main engines on this rocket shut down 2015-10-08 18:09:19 fib1618: but we thought this would happen on Wednesday too 2015-10-08 18:09:23 fib1618: but it didn't 2015-10-08 18:09:29 fib1618: we "powered up" 2015-10-08 18:09:31 fib1618: at this point 2015-10-08 18:09:37 fib1618: the only thing I would suggest here 2015-10-08 18:09:53 fib1618: is to cover shorts if they haven't already been stopped out 2015-10-08 18:09:56 fib1618: step aside 2015-10-08 18:10:07 fib1618: and do some homework and have a plan here 2015-10-08 18:10:21 fib1618: the EMA's on the daily charts should provide some resistance here 2015-10-08 18:10:27 fib1618: but at the same time 2015-10-08 18:10:53 fib1618: there is enough power in the market now that all three of these same EMA's will taken out 2015-10-08 18:10:55 fib1618: in that case 2015-10-08 18:11:04 fib1618: look for the 200 day EMA to provide support after prices move above it 2015-10-08 18:11:18 fib1618: and once you get a higher high off of any snapback support 2015-10-08 18:11:45 fib1618: along with the short term EMA's moving back above this same longer term 200 day EMA 2015-10-08 18:11:57 fib1618: that would be your trigger for an intermediate term long position 2015-10-08 18:12:22 fib1618: keep in mind 2015-10-08 18:12:43 fib1618: that the move here has been so fast 2015-10-08 18:12:54 fib1618: that many issues have yet to catch up 2015-10-08 18:13:08 fib1618: there will be plenty of time to position trade here 2015-10-08 18:13:31 fib1618: all we know now is that there is enough support below us internally to support a strong uptrend in prices 2015-10-08 18:13:46 fib1618: one of which could last several months 2015-10-08 18:14:14 tuna: got it, thank you very much for the explanation 2015-10-08 18:16:07 fib1618: OK...anything else? 2015-10-08 18:16:41 rite01: Great session thank you 2015-10-08 18:16:47 fib1618: you're welcome 2015-10-08 18:16:56 fib1618: it's all very exciting 2015-10-08 18:17:03 fib1618: we'll see how far it takes us 2015-10-08 18:17:09 fib1618: OK...I'm going to take off 2015-10-08 18:17:15 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend 2015-10-08 18:17:21 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday 2015-10-08 18:17:22 fib1618: good night 2015-10-08 18:17:29 rite01: Good night everyone __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977