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Posts: 4,888
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-10-08 16:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-10-08 16:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-10-08 16:01:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very Well, thx, and you?
2013-10-08 16:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine and dandy
2013-10-08 16:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no big surprise...Janet Yellen being nominated for FED Chair tomorrow was just announced
2013-10-08 16:03:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I guess that means you aren't in love with the bull market, and fully invested all the time? LOL
2013-10-08 16:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could you believe that?
2013-10-08 16:03:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: unreal, finger pointing the wrong direction [smile]
2013-10-08 16:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I could understand someone saying that if they didn't know me or my really was out of left field
2013-10-08 16:04:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: was super hard for me not to tee off on him
2013-10-08 16:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not worth it
2013-10-08 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he has his own misgivings to deal with
2013-10-08 16:04:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I know, I behaved
2013-10-08 16:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good boy [wink]
2013-10-08 16:05:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: like say, options on penny stocks, ouch
2013-10-08 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Sorry about the Indians [frown]
2013-10-08 16:05:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bummer, thx
2013-10-08 16:05:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great season for us, though
2013-10-08 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3-3 A's and the Tigers right now
2013-10-08 16:05:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hope the A's take em out!
2013-10-08 16:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a rivalry there
2013-10-08 16:06:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2013-10-08 16:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pay back for last year..hopefully
2013-10-08 16:06:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2013-10-08 16:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-10-08 16:06:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: can we look at targets tonight? mine changed a bit
2013-10-08 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2013-10-08 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get to work
2013-10-08 16:07:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and get DP up
2013-10-08 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW...
2013-10-08 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that anyone will acknowledge it publicly
2013-10-08 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you made a most timely call on the Dow volume MCSUM yesterday Lew...nicely done!!
2013-10-08 16:08:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2013-10-08 16:08:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: mom had SDOW [smile]
2013-10-08 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2013-10-08 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you worked really hard for that one!
2013-10-08 16:09:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: really killing it for her-closed all her longs, loaded SDOW just right
2013-10-08 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after giving us our obligatory bounce on Friday to unload
2013-10-08 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued sharply lower today
2013-10-08 16:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now "oversold" with a reading of -76
2013-10-08 16:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's move also took out the divergent lows of late August along with it
2013-10-08 16:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this gives us now a reset of the pattern as we thought would happen last Thursday
2013-10-08 16:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2013-10-08 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can the increasing amount of speed in which money is now leaving this market of stocks
2013-10-08 16:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where it's pretty much a given now that we'll see a challenge of the CO MCSUM zero line
2013-10-08 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tops beneath tops also control the CO MCSUM pattern as well
2013-10-08 16:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this resistance will now be needed to be violated to re-initiate the uptrend in the NYA
2013-10-08 16:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2013-10-08 16:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the line of declining bottoms we see on the MCSUM intersect that -250 level
2013-10-08 16:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is, of itself, a natural MCSUM support level
2013-10-08 16:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any break below this area would suggest a more pronounced correctional period would be upon us
2013-10-08 16:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite
2013-10-08 16:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see we have a nice series of tops beneath tops in place on the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-10-08 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we settled today with a -63 reading
2013-10-08 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showing better overall support than the common only stocks
2013-10-08 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, with this latest break to the downside
2013-10-08 16:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE MCO did break below its divergent lows
2013-10-08 16:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now triggered a confirmed downside price objective for the NYA of around the 9000 level
2013-10-08 16:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have seen pattern support over the last several months
2013-10-08 16:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order to break these target lows
2013-10-08 16:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would have to see new lows in the MCO
2013-10-08 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for now, that's our downside target for the broader market
2013-10-08 16:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that we do see here with the first two MCSUM's is what is called an "exhausted curl" to its formation
2013-10-08 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing how positive money flow weakened considerable during the last rally phase in the market
2013-10-08 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not good news for the bulls
2013-10-08 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would also imply that all of the willing and unwilling buyers had entered the market for the time being
2013-10-08 16:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it would be likely to see many of the MCSUM's, but especially the NYSE Composite MCSUM, move to "oversold" levels during this current correctional phase
2013-10-08 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-10-08 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would one thing if this type of structure took place with the A/D lines already weakening
2013-10-08 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would imply that a bear market of intermediate degree was getting under way
2013-10-08 16:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the A/D lines are nowhere in such a configuration to confirm this
2013-10-08 16:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one would think that much of any correction from this point would be more in keeping with a consolidation than it would be that of a trending sequence to the downside
2013-10-08 16:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have to monitor this as we go along
2013-10-08 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the main thought here is that we shouldn't get too beared up...especially since much of this is being generated by increasing fear that is being generated in Washington
2013-10-08 16:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can assume this because the DAX, FTSE, and even Aussie markets are not complimenting what we're working with here in the US
2013-10-08 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, on the other hand
2013-10-08 16:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one area of analysis that does compliment a bearish tone to the market is the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line
2013-10-08 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that tends to lead the direction of equities by about 3-4 months
2013-10-08 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that A/D line topped out in late May
2013-10-08 16:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless of all of the particulars
2013-10-08 16:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-10-08 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have a cohesive internal market to really work with
2013-10-08 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as some money flow lines are moving lower
2013-10-08 16:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while still others are either moving higher (CO A/D line) or moving net sideways (Composite A/D line)
2013-10-08 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let's not forget
2013-10-08 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID, SML, NASDAQ and NDX also remain in a somewhat bullish mode overall
2013-10-08 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's move on
2013-10-08 16:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving higher for much of the last 3 weeks
2013-10-08 16:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ price action broke hard to the downside today
2013-10-08 16:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what might had been an ascending wedge formation
2013-10-08 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or for you Elliottician's out there
2013-10-08 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an ending diagonal
2013-10-08 16:34:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2013-10-08 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved to its lowest levels since the mid August period
2013-10-08 16:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that the price target of the NASDAQ will be around the 3600 level
2013-10-08 16:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-10-08 16:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do break below the lows we see at the middle of August on the MCO
2013-10-08 16:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would give us a new downside target of around the 3450 level
2013-10-08 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though
2013-10-08 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NAAD line still supporting a series of bottoms above bottoms
2013-10-08 16:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is unlikely that this will occur
2013-10-08 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likely
2013-10-08 16:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have probably seen our low extremes for this current downside sequence today at the -58 level
2013-10-08 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO components
2013-10-08 16:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that any bounce here would be within the context of a snapback to or towards the zero line for the 5% Trend
2013-10-08 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before it will continue to unwind just a bit more
2013-10-08 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2013-10-08 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that at this point
2013-10-08 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has really changed as yet from last Thursday's discussion that this correctional process would likely take about 2-3 weeks to complete
2013-10-08 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would put us somewhere around just after October OPEX
2013-10-08 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know
2013-10-08 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the short term trend is strong enough now to where many bounces will tend to be good shorting points for day traders
2013-10-08 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while investors remain either with tight stops on their longs, or have gone to cash with last Friday's technical bounce
2013-10-08 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX data pretty much echos that of the NASDAQ
2013-10-08 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a sharp decline today in prices
2013-10-08 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a nice "oversold" level now in the NDX breadth MCO with a -90 reading
2013-10-08 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-10-08 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have good support at around the 2900 level
2013-10-08 16:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where that could be broken only if we see lower MCO's lows below that of the August bottom
2013-10-08 16:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately for the bulls though is that the NDX breadth MCSUM remains well above its zero line
2013-10-08 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any continued sagging in prices will tend to be very choppy with showing little downside follow through on a day to day basis
2013-10-08 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to trend
2013-10-08 16:44:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bounce here with the 10% at zero?
2013-10-08 16:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...the 5%
2013-10-08 16:45:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sorry, meant that
2013-10-08 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know [smile]
2013-10-08 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2013-10-08 16:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this, or any other MCSUM, gets closer to its zero line
2013-10-08 16:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're not likely to see trend development
2013-10-08 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now..
2013-10-08 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as Spooky pointed out on a post last night
2013-10-08 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today to join the Dow breadth MCSUM in negative territory
2013-10-08 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  and you could see how difficult it was for the buyers to hold any kind of bounce support because of this today
2013-10-08 16:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as more and more MCSUM's challenge, or more directly, move below this same line of neutrality
2013-10-08 16:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of any negative action is going to be somewhat muted in those who continue to be well away from this same line
2013-10-08 16:48:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices will tend to play one or two day catch ups
2013-10-08 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like what we saw in the NASDAQ and/or NDX today
2013-10-08 16:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2013-10-08 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all the warnings it was giving last week were sure on target
2013-10-08 16:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continued today to increase the downside speed in which money was moving out of the market
2013-10-08 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a -91 reading
2013-10-08 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's at a level in which we generally see reflex points in the pattern
2013-10-08 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would be like pulling back the rubber band and then letting it go
2013-10-08 16:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much of any rally here will tend to be sharp and short in duration
2013-10-08 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would give opportunities to selectively short the market
2013-10-08 16:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said though
2013-10-08 16:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the way the internal A/D lines are right now
2013-10-08 16:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising if this reflex rally stayed with us for the rest of this week
2013-10-08 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be important to remain highly disciplined and not to lead off too much on making day trades...pick your battles wisely and not just run into them
2013-10-08 16:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other brother who warned us, the OEX breadth MCO, is also highly "oversold" now with a -102 reading
2013-10-08 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation here would be for a technical snapback to around the area of the breakdown on the chart
2013-10-08 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be at around the -55 level on the MCO
2013-10-08 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the SPX breadth MCSUM
2013-10-08 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM is also showing good acceleration to the downside now
2013-10-08 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showing a bit more weakness in the top 100 stocks than that of the total 500 that make up the S&P
2013-10-08 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back for a moment to the SPX
2013-10-08 16:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have pretty much now met our downside price target given last week of around 1650 as we closed at 1655 today
2013-10-08 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX had a similar target of around the 730 level
2013-10-08 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're less than 1% away from that one
2013-10-08 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow fully met its downside target of 14,750 today
2013-10-08 16:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s off by 25 points
2013-10-08 16:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call it a "leaner"
2013-10-08 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the Dow breadth MCO continuing to dig lower here
2013-10-08 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be surprising at all to see this downside extend a bit more here to around the 14500/14600 level over the next week or so
2013-10-08 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after snapping back up to the zero line on Friday
2013-10-08 17:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO did indeed collapse over the last couple of days
2013-10-08 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settling today with a -77 reading
2013-10-08 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this accelerated downside break also pushed the MID breadth MCSUM down and through its -500 level
2013-10-08 17:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it a break of horizontal support in the price pattern took place
2013-10-08 17:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2013-10-08 17:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would seem that a small snapback to the zero line on the 5% Trend is indicated
2013-10-08 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see a very similar occurrence took place with the SML breadth MCO along with the price pattern breakdown
2013-10-08 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so have a lot of "order" right now
2013-10-08 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not nearly as chaotic as many would think it is
2013-10-08 17:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as one would expect
2013-10-08 17:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see a hard collapse in the TM breadth MCO
2013-10-08 17:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we could see a bit more downside drama to take place before a quick reflex might be seen
2013-10-08 17:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-08 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as were the indications last week
2013-10-08 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market continues to be quite vulnerable to any kind of news out there
2013-10-08 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until the trend plurality turns around again
2013-10-08 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to keep a defensive view of the market
2013-10-08 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's see how the volume side is doing
2013-10-08 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO is very much in sync with its breadth cousin
2013-10-08 17:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which does suggest that we're trending to the downside on a short term basis
2013-10-08 17:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of 4-6 weeks
2013-10-08 17:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get the MCSUM's below their zero lines
2013-10-08 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that we are NOT trending to the downside on a intermediate term basis
2013-10-08 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that what we are seeing here is a correctional sequence
2013-10-08 17:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the bears to claim a larger trend
2013-10-08 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will need to have both the short term (MCO) and the intermediate term (MCSUM) complimenting each other in this same direction
2013-10-08 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean, of course, that we can't make money on this correction
2013-10-08 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we do have a downside price target for the NYA at 9000 to work with
2013-10-08 17:11:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny how bears always think we won't, eh?
2013-10-08 17:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still don't have enough to say that "the" top is in
2013-10-08 17:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call "a" top for now
2013-10-08 17:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could evolve into something more
2013-10-08 17:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2013-10-08 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there isn't enough to hang your technical hat on
2013-10-08 17:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we can say though
2013-10-08 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2013-10-08 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do get our bounce here
2013-10-08 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we then move to a lower low in the MCO
2013-10-08 17:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not below the August lows
2013-10-08 17:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then extend the time it will take for this correction to run its course
2013-10-08 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that may play out to the end of the year in a worse case scenario
2013-10-08 17:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2013-10-08 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's far too early to toot that horn
2013-10-08 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're always looking ahead to what can be done and not what we feel could be done
2013-10-08 17:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite volume MCO is pretty much in the same boat as the CO
2013-10-08 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when we move to the NASDAQ volume MCO
2013-10-08 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it is now at levels in which important price bottoms have developed in the past
2013-10-08 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the downside target here of around 3600 level in front of us
2013-10-08 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will probably have the character of backing and filling
2013-10-08 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: digger deeper towards the objective
2013-10-08 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounce for a day or so
2013-10-08 17:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dig a little deeper
2013-10-08 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we begin to build our divergences
2013-10-08 17:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then after about 2 or 3 attempts to stabilize
2013-10-08 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bottom for this sequence should be seen
2013-10-08 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll have to see how the bounce goes from there
2013-10-08 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO is also challenging its August lows now
2013-10-08 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break below that and we could see a prices pierce below those respected lows
2013-10-08 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO is showing a lessening of downside pressure here compared to its breadth cousin
2013-10-08 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that the broader index is starting to lose its sellers
2013-10-08 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the OEX volume MCO
2013-10-08 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow volume MCO is nowhere near as negative as what the broader NYSE Composite is showing right now
2013-10-08 17:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the Dow at price pattern support
2013-10-08 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this current lack of conviction by the bears is indicating that we're likely to see a couple of days of reflex over the next day or so
2013-10-08 17:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID, SML, and TM volume MCO's are looking like they're about washed out here
2013-10-08 17:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to say
2013-10-08 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: days like today and yesterday might be exciting fear in the markets
2013-10-08 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're not at all getting the kind of "necessary" selling that provides the velocity needed for prices to continue to move to the downside near term
2013-10-08 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-08 17:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: between the breadth and volume data tonight
2013-10-08 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we look to be very close to some sort of multi day reflex rally
2013-10-08 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with most reflex rallies
2013-10-08 17:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they tend to be short and swift
2013-10-08 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that of short covering
2013-10-08 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know if it's short covering by watching the TRIN numbers
2013-10-08 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with anything below .40 suggesting that much of any monies driving this reflex are, in fact, covered shorts
2013-10-08 17:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is something to watch for tomorrow and Thursday
2013-10-08 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew!
2013-10-08 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now climactic
2013-10-08 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a price bottom in the next two trading sessions
2013-10-08 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are "oversold"
2013-10-08 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll average out the VTO's as being neutral for now
2013-10-08 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we're neutral like this
2013-10-08 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side can then take control
2013-10-08 17:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the "oversold" readings we currently have then
2013-10-08 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect it be better than a 75% chance that the buyers are likely to be stepping in here to meet this same expectation
2013-10-08 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Thank You!
2013-10-08 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.02
2013-10-08 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a near term technical a washout point
2013-10-08 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a buy signal
2013-10-08 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCO's digging to lower lows right now
2013-10-08 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to see a period of constructive evidence to suggest that a turn may be at hand
2013-10-08 17:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we don't have that as yet
2013-10-08 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what we can say is
2013-10-08 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we've had a day of capitulation
2013-10-08 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we should see a reflex rally at any time
2013-10-08 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE Open 10 at 1.07
2013-10-08 17:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we've lost that deeply "oversold" reading as well
2013-10-08 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll review this in the future as to what and why this occurred
2013-10-08 17:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2013-10-08 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN At 2.69
2013-10-08 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still neutral though at .91
2013-10-08 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need more selling there to set an internal floor
2013-10-08 17:30:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 2.51
2013-10-08 17:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2013-10-08 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so on the bullish side of neutral
2013-10-08 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-10-08 17:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we're close to some sort of technical bounce in the market
2013-10-08 17:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the daily TRIN numbers are suggesting that we saw climactic behavior today of one level or the other
2013-10-08 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also see spikes in volatility with these readings
2013-10-08 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2013-10-08 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VIX is back to the area where we saw it top out previously with the June lows
2013-10-08 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the VXO is about the same
2013-10-08 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the VXN is now above those levels
2013-10-08 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if the market players suddenly realized that the NASDAQ was not declining with the large caps and made up for lost time today
2013-10-08 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all...not a bad place for a quick turnaround
2013-10-08 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll measure the amplitude of this turn and then be ready to come up with our new blueprint to work with
2013-10-08 17:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-10-08 17:35:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx, nice chat
2013-10-08 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that we always have to remember
2013-10-08 17:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the market has a rhythm to it
2013-10-08 17:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it tends to play out that rhythm well before others recognize the tune
2013-10-08 17:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breakdowns and snapbacks are all part of this cadence
2013-10-08 17:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why we used the anticipated bounce on Friday to reposition ourselves
2013-10-08 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-10-08 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at a point where we've gone too far and too fast
2013-10-08 17:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take a couple more weeks to sort things out
2013-10-08 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2013-10-08 17:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we play this defensively as we did over the summer
2013-10-08 17:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and watch to see if we get enough evidence for a tradable bottom and when it would be likely to take place
2013-10-08 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now though
2013-10-08 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect the NYSE Composite MCSUM to probably challenge the -500 level before we'll see a turn
2013-10-08 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by that time
2013-10-08 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market should be a "better mood" to advance
2013-10-08 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2013-10-08 17:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-10-08 17:40:00 [Message] slate -> Chat:  $SPX price target roughly correspond to $NYA?
2013-10-08 17:40:32 [Message] slate -> Chat: 1,600ish?
2013-10-08 17:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey Chris
2013-10-08 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good to see you!
2013-10-08 17:40:40 [Message] slate -> Chat: Hi Dave!
2013-10-08 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hope all is well
2013-10-08 17:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-10-08 17:40:56 [Message] slate -> Chat: Thank you sir!  Been very very busy.  Going great. 
2013-10-08 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main support area is the summer lows
2013-10-08 17:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so 1600 on the SPX is a good goal for now
2013-10-08 17:41:41 [Message] slate -> Chat: gotcha.  Thank you!
2013-10-08 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as you know
2013-10-08 17:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just monitor things
2013-10-08 17:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do have enough to get there
2013-10-08 17:42:23 [Message] slate -> Chat: agreed. Going away to do some surf fishing and wanted to have a rough idea while I'm away.
2013-10-08 17:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try not to be such a stranger...glad you could join us today!
2013-10-08 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2013-10-08 17:42:50 [Message] slate -> Chat: Thank you, will try. The new cloud virtuailzation business is keeping me jumping across the nation these days
2013-10-08 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great to hear!
2013-10-08 17:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-10-08 17:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2013-10-08 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2013-10-08 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how all of this will shake out on Thursday
2013-10-08 17:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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