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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2014-10-07 16:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-10-07 16:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-10-07 16:02:05 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: Well thank you, and yourself?
2014-10-07 16:02:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, thx
2014-10-07 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine
2014-10-07 16:02:54 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: great also...thanks fib
2014-10-07 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-10-07 16:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and see what we have to work with
2014-10-07 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after finally taking out the reaction highs of last week
2014-10-07 16:13:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2014-10-07 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now back within a complex bearish configuration pattern below its zero line
2014-10-07 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the bullish side of things
2014-10-07 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the recent move back above the reaction highs
2014-10-07 16:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did see the declining tops line taken out in the process
2014-10-07 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so today's pullback might be one of a simple snapback to this same breakout line
2014-10-07 16:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the possibility of bullish divergence in play now with the CO data where we didn't have so last week
2014-10-07 16:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-10-07 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see an new acceleration post to the downside today
2014-10-07 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking below the -500 level over the last couple of trading days
2014-10-07 16:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation then is for further trend weakness to the -750 level over the next several days
2014-10-07 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on a longer term basis
2014-10-07 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's gap expansion post to the downside took out the important MCSUM lows of November 2012
2014-10-07 16:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which now opens the door to the probability of continued weakness for the rest of October
2014-10-07 16:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now we're at the lowest level seen since June of 2012
2014-10-07 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-10-07 16:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a bigger problem in the technical area
2014-10-07 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as were not able to take out the reaction highs of mid September
2014-10-07 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then pushed lower today from this area of resistance
2014-10-07 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2014-10-07 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that were not able to hold the -250 level
2014-10-07 16:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this then highly suggest that we are, at this current time, in a technical bear market
2014-10-07 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a divergent MCSUM high point
2014-10-07 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2014-10-07 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a break of the base of our double top formation on the NYA price chart
2014-10-07 16:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would appear that we are "in gear" to the downside now
2014-10-07 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a new downside price target for the NYA off of this same double top at ~9900
2014-10-07 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or another 5% haircut from current levels
2014-10-07 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this juncture
2014-10-07 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the current bullish divergences hold in the MCO
2014-10-07 16:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would likely be our stopping point for this downside sequence
2014-10-07 16:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though looking at the daily price chart of the NYA
2014-10-07 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we really don't have much in the way of price support until the February lows at 9700
2014-10-07 16:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-07 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe we could see a good old fashioned capitulation day
2014-10-07 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we see the 9700 level hit intraday
2014-10-07 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then close in and around 9900 to finish off the sequence
2014-10-07 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know better as things unfold
2014-10-07 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another item of note
2014-10-07 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have now broken below the rising bottoms line that has been controlling the NYSE MCSUM pattern of higher lows since the summer of 2011
2014-10-07 16:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes more of an exclamation mark in what we could see over the next several months as the market goes about its business of "shaking the tree" as it were
2014-10-07 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am also reminded that we had our MCSUM 3 step bull market confirmation signal back in 2009
2014-10-07 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these usually these last for about 3-4 years
2014-10-07 16:29:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in this area, we're way over due for a correction of sorts
2014-10-07 16:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll have to wait and see how things move along from here
2014-10-07 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the NYSE Composite
2014-10-07 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also didn't take out its mid September high point
2014-10-07 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now close to challenging its recent lows of last Wednesday
2014-10-07 16:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more importantly
2014-10-07 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCO challenge is coming at a time from which we're also about to challenge the May lows seen in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-10-07 16:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know all too well, the market needs to "work together" to achieve a specific goal
2014-10-07 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not a surprise that we see both the short term and intermediate term trend indicators of money flow both at critical levels at the same time
2014-10-07 16:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking below the intermediate term rising bottoms line last Wednesday
2014-10-07 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has now broken below horizontal support as well
2014-10-07 16:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now destined to challenge its zero line on this current sequence
2014-10-07 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a slightly positive side
2014-10-07 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do see that the 10% component of the NDX breadth MCO did move to a lower low
2014-10-07 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we see something like this that is not confirmed by the MCO itself
2014-10-07 16:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could suggest that we're nearing a internal momentum low in this same indicator
2014-10-07 16:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2014-10-07 16:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market indices seemingly cutting through these same support levels with relative ease of late
2014-10-07 16:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls might not get their desired result from such a divergence as this one this time around
2014-10-07 16:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we know all too well
2014-10-07 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see the major indices break below their lines of support
2014-10-07 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or especially the MCSUM zero line
2014-10-07 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we generally see and feel these breakdowns with large price moves
2014-10-07 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which brings us to the SPX breadth MCSUM
2014-10-07 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which moved below its MCSUM zero line today
2014-10-07 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the appropriate response from the price index itself
2014-10-07 16:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as intermediate term control moved from the buyers to the sellers
2014-10-07 16:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-10-07 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't bode well for the bulls now
2014-10-07 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the decline today came right after there was a reflex rally that found its resistance with not one, but TWO EMA lines of resistance
2014-10-07 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have discussed numerous times in the past
2014-10-07 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when prices break a short term EMA
2014-10-07 16:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will generally find its next support at its intermediate term EMA and snapback to its short term EMA
2014-10-07 16:41:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we break both of the EMA's
2014-10-07 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is technically a trading signal for the chartist
2014-10-07 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where on any snapback to these same EMA's
2014-10-07 16:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are your entry points to either go long or short the market
2014-10-07 16:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and true to form
2014-10-07 16:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what we got today for the short side
2014-10-07 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2014-10-07 16:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed below the supposed "hammer stick" of last Thursday
2014-10-07 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good thing
2014-10-07 16:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our secondary problem being
2014-10-07 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have now broken any support we did have on the price chart of the rising bottoms line going back to February of this year
2014-10-07 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the market rising without too much in the way of retracement over this same time period
2014-10-07 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things tend to be accentuated when everyone finally realizes that...
2014-10-07 16:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time...
2014-10-07 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is NOT a "buy the dip" time
2014-10-07 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those who have lost much of any money they did have shorting on the way up
2014-10-07 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell at any price
2014-10-07 16:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the downdraft could be quite large
2014-10-07 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was our worry back on the 19th
2014-10-07 16:45:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of last month
2014-10-07 16:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why...it was better to play this defensively until we had enough information to call a sequence complete
2014-10-07 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-10-07 16:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2014-10-07 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still in a bull market
2014-10-07 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering that we still have 3 fan formation lines we're working with here
2014-10-07 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the accelerated one has now been broken
2014-10-07 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so the 2nd fan formation line should hold during this corrective process
2014-10-07 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the SPX...let me check to see where that lies..
2014-10-07 16:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like...
2014-10-07 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: surprise surprise
2014-10-07 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready?
2014-10-07 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the February 2014 lows at 1750
2014-10-07 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're now starting to get several things pointing to a move all the way back to the February lows
2014-10-07 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would make a lot of sense since we seem to breaking important pattern support levels in both the MCO and MCSUM that were not seen since....
2014-10-07 16:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: February of 2014
2014-10-07 16:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-10-07 16:50:21 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: can you post a chart of the SPX with your 3 fan formation lines?
2014-10-07 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are challenging the lows of last week
2014-10-07 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...yes
2014-10-07 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think I had it on the old BETS charts
2014-10-07 16:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me 2 minutes and I'll try to find it
2014-10-07 16:50:56 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks!!!
2014-10-07 16:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look up the Cumulative Charts of 11/2/13
2014-10-07 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see the 3 fan formation lines on the BETS chart
2014-10-07 16:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1st fan formation is the triangle
2014-10-07 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the burst out of the triangle
2014-10-07 16:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the accelerated phase of the advance from the November 2012 lows
2014-10-07 16:54:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which just finished up a month ago
2014-10-07 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-07 16:54:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a bad rally...22 months
2014-10-07 16:54:18 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: found it
2014-10-07 16:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2014-10-07 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be more precise
2014-10-07 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a Fibonacci 21 months [smile]
2014-10-07 16:54:59 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: [smile]  So do you think this could be the start of a Primary 4th wave?
2014-10-07 16:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew...
2014-10-07 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Primary?
2014-10-07 16:55:58 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: or maybe just a bigger 4th wave at some degree [smile]
2014-10-07 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would say, if anything, since we're breaking support from only 9 months ago...it would be labeled "Intermediate" if that were truly the case at hand
2014-10-07 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though
2014-10-07 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as much as we LOVE to put a label on price patterns
2014-10-07 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would wait a bit before trying to figure out where we might be in the bigger scheme of things
2014-10-07 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one things for sure
2014-10-07 16:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we continue to break divergent lows in momentum
2014-10-07 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continue to break horizontal and trend support levels in this process
2014-10-07 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take a higher degree labeling for things like this to happen
2014-10-07 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so..at this point
2014-10-07 16:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be more inclined to table a "count" here until we see how we test the February lows
2014-10-07 16:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2014-10-07 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for something like this to happen
2014-10-07 16:58:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all the things that we have gone through over these same 21 months on a fundamental basis
2014-10-07 16:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is likely to be something out there that is more important than what we've been through for something like this to take place
2014-10-07 16:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-10-07 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder
2014-10-07 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I mentioned last month that our business here has been dreadful for the last 5 months
2014-10-07 16:59:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we tend to lead the stock market by about 3-4 months
2014-10-07 16:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market may be feeling now what were feeling in May and June
2014-10-07 17:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and believe me
2014-10-07 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't pretty
2014-10-07 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quick example
2014-10-07 17:00:15 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: any pickup at all this month?
2014-10-07 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our May this year was the worse May we've had since 1991
2014-10-07 17:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to answer your question..no
2014-10-07 17:00:43 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: wow
2014-10-07 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this all came after we were having our best months since 2007
2014-10-07 17:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something has hit the skids economically of late
2014-10-07 17:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what it is will be known soon enough
2014-10-07 17:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we've been talking about
2014-10-07 17:01:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what of the fashions?
2014-10-07 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this latest pullback has had a different feel to it
2014-10-07 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of black
2014-10-07 17:01:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ouch
2014-10-07 17:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2014-10-07 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been bright colors in the stores
2014-10-07 17:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that was the end of summer
2014-10-07 17:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually, it's interesting
2014-10-07 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we had a lot of black with white looks back in 2011 during the correction
2014-10-07 17:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with white representing positive feelings and black negative feelings
2014-10-07 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest color right now is....
2014-10-07 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Gray
2014-10-07 17:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a mixture of black and white
2014-10-07 17:03:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I've never seen an indicator that works better..
2014-10-07 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now on a more subliminal level
2014-10-07 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gray is also silver
2014-10-07 17:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver is the poor man's gold
2014-10-07 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to wit
2014-10-07 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver is bought by the masses because its affordable during times in which gold is generally topping out
2014-10-07 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at gold
2014-10-07 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at 4 year price support
2014-10-07 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the PM stocks are indication after today's rally
2014-10-07 17:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold could very possibly break to new 5 year lows as soon as tomorrow
2014-10-07 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver has already done so
2014-10-07 17:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking this altogether
2014-10-07 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is suggesting that the FED is tightening here
2014-10-07 17:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though they speak with fork tongue
2014-10-07 17:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bond pits continue to see weak data
2014-10-07 17:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the "talking heads" are claiming that we are recovered because of the latest Jobs numbers
2014-10-07 17:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have problems here
2014-10-07 17:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a man who owns a couple of businesses
2014-10-07 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm very concerned
2014-10-07 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll see how things go
2014-10-07 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: geez...
2014-10-07 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just talking like this is usually a sign of a bottom, isn't it? [smile]
2014-10-07 17:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically
2014-10-07 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you all see what I'm seeing here
2014-10-07 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is NOT how bottoms are built
2014-10-07 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I said in last weekend's breadth review
2014-10-07 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was no uniformity in the divergent MCO lows from last Wednesday
2014-10-07 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we don't have all the cylinders running in sequence
2014-10-07 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will usually see another try in getting things more synchronized
2014-10-07 17:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today is probably the kick off to that
2014-10-07 17:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh..October
2014-10-07 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you got to love it!
2014-10-07 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX and Dow MCO's and MCSUM's continue to be in sync
2014-10-07 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both ready to break below last weeks low points in their MCO's
2014-10-07 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also broke above its declining tops line last week
2014-10-07 17:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the rest of the breadth MCO's
2014-10-07 17:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had no follow through above the mid September high point
2014-10-07 17:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went today
2014-10-07 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that it was the NYSE Composite and MID breadth MCO's that did not join the others in making new lows last week
2014-10-07 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in order to get things "right" we'll likely need to see a clean break to new lows in these two MCO's
2014-10-07 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of concerning to say the least
2014-10-07 17:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but longer term necessary in order to have a strong enough base to continue to see higher prices with the alternate being continued divergent structures in these same majority of indicies
2014-10-07 17:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO also wasn't able to match its highs of mid September either
2014-10-07 17:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike many other of the MCO's
2014-10-07 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can call a divergent bottom now in place
2014-10-07 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we hold
2014-10-07 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a big "if" for now
2014-10-07 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but doable
2014-10-07 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pretty much the same situation with the TM breadth MCO
2014-10-07 17:17:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the TM breadth MCSUM is now a day away from seeing a move below the -500 level
2014-10-07 17:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-10-07 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the anticipated reflex rally of late last week did the job of breaking the accelerated declining tops lines in many of the breadth MCO's
2014-10-07 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't get any follow through to move above horizontal resistance
2014-10-07 17:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the sellers overwhelmed the buyers in the afternoon
2014-10-07 17:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-10-07 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if the bulls find others to belly up to the bar
2014-10-07 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably not going to be enough to keep things from getting away from them
2014-10-07 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and further price erosion is likely to be seen over the next week...and likely into the early November period as was our expectation 2 weeks ago
2014-10-07 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2014-10-07 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was just quickly looking at the sector MCO's
2014-10-07 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see that the XLK breadth MCO moved to new lows today
2014-10-07 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan just opened at 1 month lows
2014-10-07 17:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing good with the sector MCO's
2014-10-07 17:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as all are still under the influence of their declining tops lines
2014-10-07 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good thing
2014-10-07 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NDX volume MCO moved to lower lows today
2014-10-07 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: generally that could be a sign of a wash out
2014-10-07 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's too much weakness right now
2014-10-07 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you look through the volume MCO's/MCSUM's
2014-10-07 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice where the patterns were turned back from
2014-10-07 17:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just no inherent strength right now
2014-10-07 17:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this must be a growth issue
2014-10-07 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the it's been the small caps that have been leading lower
2014-10-07 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the value issues are just starting to catch up
2014-10-07 17:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the good news there is...
2014-10-07 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't see any raise in interest rates next year if that's what's really going on
2014-10-07 17:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ouch
2014-10-07 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looked at the 10 year note yield
2014-10-07 17:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got a shave and haircut today [smile]
2014-10-07 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're back to the lows of August
2014-10-07 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's continue to look for a 2.15% yield there
2014-10-07 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder how many people got suckered in on the September rally in rates?
2014-10-07 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...hello
2014-10-07 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO was actually UP today
2014-10-07 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls better hope for follow through here
2014-10-07 17:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the reversal lower will likely be hard and unforgiving
2014-10-07 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are a bit weak, but not climactic
2014-10-07 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are not quite "oversold" here
2014-10-07 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are close, but no cigar there
2014-10-07 17:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this leaves the door wide open for some additional price decay near term
2014-10-07 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.33
2014-10-07 17:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2014-10-07 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2014-10-07 17:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TRIN only dumped at the close
2014-10-07 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about complacency!
2014-10-07 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that many were looking for an intraday low and rally that never came
2014-10-07 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: geez...
2014-10-07 17:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .73
2014-10-07 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom picking continues
2014-10-07 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still
2014-10-07 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK broke to new lows?
2014-10-07 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is no bueno
2014-10-07 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.02
2014-10-07 17:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .94
2014-10-07 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.07
2014-10-07 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-10-07 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that even if we got some sort of reflex here it would be that of a "dead cat bounce" variety
2014-10-07 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there doesn't seem to be any fresh money moving in
2014-10-07 17:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2014-10-07 17:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have short covering going on in the secondaries
2014-10-07 17:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there have been times in the past when we see this happen the market gets clobbered
2014-10-07 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of that
2014-10-07 17:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's continue to remain defensive for now
2014-10-07 17:36:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: could you speak a sec about useful  intraday trin levels? I was asked in my room today, and I'm afraid it's so built in me internally-I was vague
2014-10-07 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who are playing short here
2014-10-07 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just use the tried and true sliding stop and let your profits run
2014-10-07 17:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday TRIN?
2014-10-07 17:36:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2014-10-07 17:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the way the market is set up
2014-10-07 17:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am finding that the cumulative TICK to be a better gauge of impending reversals or continuations over the TRIN on an INTRADAY basis
2014-10-07 17:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was there something specific that came up?
2014-10-07 17:38:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, I usually gauge squeezes, real buying, oversold levels, etc
2014-10-07 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2014-10-07 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to me
2014-10-07 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after using this indicator for the better part of 20 years
2014-10-07 17:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you probably could get just as much as looking at the raw numbers than you can from the TRIN equation
2014-10-07 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like trying to use the McClellan Oscillator intraday
2014-10-07 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have so much volume now that moves issues at the speed of light
2014-10-07 17:39:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed, for me it has become very situational-but used to be worth much more
2014-10-07 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it becomes problematic to get a good feel of what's going on
2014-10-07 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-10-07 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing in which you know
2014-10-07 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the daily data is the most important thing out there when it comes to working with breadth dynamics
2014-10-07 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the simple reason being
2014-10-07 17:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it is based on a point when all of the buyers and sellers have made their choices for the day and a snapshot of this activity can then be used to forecast what should happen the next day
2014-10-07 17:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course you can monitor things as they move along with the TRIN intraday
2014-10-07 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will tend to be slow in giving that piece of important information that will tell you to either enter or exit a scalp position
2014-10-07 17:42:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: YES! Daily is King. And I guess the best thing the TRIN can point out to me is when the UD volume is skewed, and I didn't see it-the TRIN kind of alerts me to it
2014-10-07 17:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cumulative tick, on the other hand, gives you this important information on trending basis when used with time period EMA's
2014-10-07 17:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...but you can also do that by looking at the raw numbers as well
2014-10-07 17:43:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-10-07 17:43:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if breadth is pretty much neutral
2014-10-07 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the down volume is overwhelming up volume
2014-10-07 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than you're going to get a high TRIN
2014-10-07 17:44:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-10-07 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much money leaving in a smaller supply of issues
2014-10-07 17:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which are usually weighted
2014-10-07 17:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then causes the appearance of a broad based decline
2014-10-07 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, in reality, it's only a handful that is doing the most amount of damage
2014-10-07 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking the BETS...continue your thought
2014-10-07 17:46:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: now, in a hard drop like this, the 5 minute TROM is pretty valuable-for me knowing when I might want to reign in my shorts
2014-10-07 17:46:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we bust 200, I'm looking to get out
2014-10-07 17:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSX Venture index moved to new all time lows today
2014-10-07 17:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -35 on the BETS
2014-10-07 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can be Lew
2014-10-07 17:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it might be only one or two high cap issues that might be making that directional change
2014-10-07 17:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember back in the 2009
2014-10-07 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and BAC and C and others were trading overwhelming volume on issues that were less than $5?
2014-10-07 17:48:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure do, it blew the TRIN up
2014-10-07 17:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it skewed the data
2014-10-07 17:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you just have to be cognizant of the fact that what you see may not be what you get once the trades are done
2014-10-07 17:49:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx for the discussion
2014-10-07 17:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime
2014-10-07 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line though
2014-10-07 17:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a bit of time
2014-10-07 17:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only YOU can decide how good your indicator is on a intimate level
2014-10-07 17:50:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so true
2014-10-07 17:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one will understand it better than you
2014-10-07 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because there is a certain cadence that you pick up that you can't teach
2014-10-07 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only by hard work will it become clear
2014-10-07 17:51:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: some things I understand well, but can not explain-you are 100% right
2014-10-07 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like calling a top on the 19th
2014-10-07 17:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...my "spidey sense" doesn't go off too often [smile]
2014-10-07 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when it does, I respect it
2014-10-07 17:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-10-07 17:52:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: James said today that I pulled the trigger fast-but it took 40 years to get that finger limber, LOL
2014-10-07 17:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's OK too
2014-10-07 17:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all have our level of comfortably
2014-10-07 17:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also our level of incompetence
2014-10-07 17:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it makes you money
2014-10-07 17:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one ever complains of that
2014-10-07 17:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you do
2014-10-07 17:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're asking too much of yourself
2014-10-07 17:53:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it IS all about the money
2014-10-07 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-10-07 17:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to get into the baseball Hall of Fame all you have to do is hit the ball 3 times out of every 10 attempts
2014-10-07 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-07 17:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-10-07 17:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-10-07 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a super couple of days
2014-10-07 17:54:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, you sure taught me how to go for base hits-it changed my trading much for the better
2014-10-07 17:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again at the usual time on Thursday
2014-10-07 17:54:52 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thanks again Fib
2014-10-07 17:54:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-10-07 17:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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