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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-10-07 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-07 16:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-10-07 16:00:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Nice, and you?
2010-10-07 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me doing okey dokey
2010-10-07 16:01:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super
2010-10-07 16:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-10-07 16:02:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I think Gold was the big thing today
2010-10-07 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what respect?
2010-10-07 16:03:05 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: it came down hard.
2010-10-07 16:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2010-10-07 16:03:24 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Just looked at a gold dollar ratio chart
2010-10-07 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day
2010-10-07 16:03:30 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: It really peaked
2010-10-07 16:03:37 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: High volume
2010-10-07 16:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me count something...one sec
2010-10-07 16:03:51 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I would look after the NSU
2010-10-07 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see...35 days up and 14 days lower
2010-10-07 16:04:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: have to go to airport to pick up student that landed, sorry-will leave on so I can read later-see you Tuesday
2010-10-07 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one should probably expect a blow-off I would guess
2010-10-07 16:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NSU looks fine to me...snapback
2010-10-07 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2010-10-07 16:06:08 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK. I was just surprised when I looked at the Gold/Dollar chart
2010-10-07 16:06:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Looks like a peak
2010-10-07 16:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...far from a peak
2010-10-07 16:06:49 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-07 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be unusual though to see a snapback to the 1250 level though
2010-10-07 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all...it can't go straight up forever
2010-10-07 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even gold's peak at 1365 today was front page news
2010-10-07 16:07:38 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: It looks a bit like the December 09 and March 08 peaks
2010-10-07 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...could be time to pull back a bit
2010-10-07 16:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the dollar is terribly "oversold" as well
2010-10-07 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold has much more to go
2010-10-07 16:08:06 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: On the ratio chart
2010-10-07 16:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can show you other ratio charts as well
2010-10-07 16:08:18 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I am thinking of going long the dollar and short gold
2010-10-07 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all depends on your currency of choice
2010-10-07 16:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be a good trade
2010-10-07 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-10-07 16:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: markets just don't turn on a dime like that
2010-10-07 16:09:00 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Agree
2010-10-07 16:09:04 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-10-07 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I were you
2010-10-07 16:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would wait until next week...or at least a decent set up to trade on
2010-10-07 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the longer term is concerned
2010-10-07 16:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1850 is the target
2010-10-07 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then 2100
2010-10-07 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has been the target for 9 years now...nothing has changed
2010-10-07 16:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here's the secret to gold's success
2010-10-07 16:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the 3 month T-Bill rate is under the rate of inflation, gold has nowhere to go but up
2010-10-07 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with rates at less than 1%, it's going to be long while before we see any kind of top in gold
2010-10-07 16:11:20 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Maybe the market expects good job numbers tomorrow
2010-10-07 16:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or silver for that matter
2010-10-07 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe not
2010-10-07 16:11:37 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-10-07 16:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the market is just trading on "overbought" and "oversold" physics!
2010-10-07 16:12:11 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes
2010-10-07 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can only stretch a rubber band only so far before it snaps back...or...breaks
2010-10-07 16:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...I would expect a high level consolidation
2010-10-07 16:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe that the decoupling that took place between gold and the inverse dollar has died
2010-10-07 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually
2010-10-07 16:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's make that a bit clearer
2010-10-07 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any dollar rally doesn't not necessarily mean, in any way shape or form, that gold is going to decline in like fashion
2010-10-07 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-10-07 16:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the dollar declines, the net worth of gold will tend to be exaggerated
2010-10-07 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not the same market we had prior to the 2007 top
2010-10-07 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things have changed on several fronts
2010-10-07 16:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I always say
2010-10-07 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every market sequence is a like a snowflake
2010-10-07 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they may all look the same, but upon closer examination, all are unique in their structure and character
2010-10-07 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let's call gold with an outside range day
2010-10-07 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that Friday we'll see a down close
2010-10-07 16:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all
2010-10-07 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be .10
2010-10-07 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be $10
2010-10-07 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know is that the better odds are that gold will see a down close on Friday
2010-10-07 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how things look on Monday
2010-10-07 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you notice how NSU fought off the larger declines in many of the PM issues today as well?
2010-10-07 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was down 2%
2010-10-07 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IAG and SLW were down 4%
2010-10-07 16:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but NSU has a technical pattern holding it up as well
2010-10-07 16:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other two do not
2010-10-07 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if we break below the apex of the triangle
2010-10-07 16:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will take my profits
2010-10-07 16:19:06 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I agree it looked strong compared to the sector
2010-10-07 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that looks to be around the 4.90 area
2010-10-07 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the 20 day EMA also resides
2010-10-07 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I bought some more at the close
2010-10-07 16:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: risk is minimal
2010-10-07 16:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just playing the odds
2010-10-07 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else before we get started??
2010-10-07 16:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the jobs numbers tomorrow
2010-10-07 16:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be interesting only in the way of how it will be presented given that its the last one before the elections
2010-10-07 16:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would expect little change
2010-10-07 16:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market won't really care
2010-10-07 16:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either way...fundamentally...it should be a win-win
2010-10-07 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bad numbers...interest rates remain low
2010-10-07 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good numbers...things are turning around
2010-10-07 16:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a preemptive strike
2010-10-07 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: expect October's numbers to be good
2010-10-07 16:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason...anyone??
2010-10-07 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Holiday hiring starts next week
2010-10-07 16:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I heard that several of the major retailers are hiring up to 5 figures (10,000 or more)
2010-10-07 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so jobless claims should improve starting next week
2010-10-07 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then in January
2010-10-07 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was given will be taken away
2010-10-07 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the numbers are a football
2010-10-07 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depends on which team your quarterbacking
2010-10-07 16:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-10-07 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like gold
2010-10-07 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had an outside range day on the NYA today
2010-10-07 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we closed higher on Wednesday, this suggests that we should close lower on Friday
2010-10-07 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued to snapback to or towards its zero line today
2010-10-07 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remaining quite congested in its short term structure
2010-10-07 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this short term congestion
2010-10-07 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to struggle its way to the +500 level
2010-10-07 16:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we didn't get the bulls to follow through on Wednesday
2010-10-07 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the way that we've been above the MCO zero line now for an extended period of time
2010-10-07 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're basically back to where we were last week at this time
2010-10-07 16:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the odds in favor of a zero line break
2010-10-07 16:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean
2010-10-07 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we don't break down (again)
2010-10-07 16:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to continue choppy behavior with any surprises remaining to the upside
2010-10-07 16:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're back to the zero line on the composite NYSE breadth MCO as well
2010-10-07 16:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control of the action
2010-10-07 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last Tuesday it was the bulls
2010-10-07 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be different this time
2010-10-07 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even if the bears come to play
2010-10-07 16:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very important to remember that with the NYSE breadth MCSUM as high as it is
2010-10-07 16:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still very, very difficult for prices to decline in any meaningful way
2010-10-07 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...in either case...bullish or bearish...unless you're a trend trader, hit and run remains the best plan
2010-10-07 16:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO remains in a complex pattern between its zero line at the +25 level
2010-10-07 16:31:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM continues to struggle higher because of this same congestion
2010-10-07 16:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's number at a +185, there still isn't enough "humpf" to trade the long side here with any real confidence
2010-10-07 16:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2010-10-07 16:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing worth cheering about on the downside either
2010-10-07 16:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much in limbo right now
2010-10-07 16:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ price pattern itself
2010-10-07 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that here we've continued to move within a trading range
2010-10-07 16:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which has been the expectation now for about 2 weeks now
2010-10-07 16:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so nothing really new there
2010-10-07 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can really see the high level consolidation with the NDX price pattern
2010-10-07 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after snapping back up to the zero line on Tuesday
2010-10-07 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has continued to remain below its zero line
2010-10-07 16:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2010-10-07 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains above the low spike seen last week
2010-10-07 16:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's some near term indecision going on here
2010-10-07 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both internally and externally
2010-10-07 16:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until something gives...there's no reason in trying to be a hero
2010-10-07 16:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to wait for the break to occur
2010-10-07 16:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN wait another day or two just in case with get a fake out move
2010-10-07 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as things like this tend to happen when we're in a gridlock situation as we have right now
2010-10-07 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday's rally is a good example of that
2010-10-07 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could had been a fake out
2010-10-07 16:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to get the rest of the bears to cover
2010-10-07 16:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then "take her down"
2010-10-07 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or in this case
2010-10-07 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continue to chop around to frustrate the greatest amount of traders before proceeding
2010-10-07 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know
2010-10-07 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrections can take the form of either of a price decline, chop around in time, or do both
2010-10-07 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ones that chop around are the hardest to work with
2010-10-07 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we all tend to lose our patience
2010-10-07 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is exactly what the market wants you to do
2010-10-07 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then takes your money away from you when you get emotional
2010-10-07 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not me...not today...!
2010-10-07 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-07 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the SPX breadth MCO
2010-10-07 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX breadth MCSUM continues to trace out a rounding top in which we pointed out on Tuesday
2010-10-07 16:40:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that this indecision pattern is going on 3 weeks now
2010-10-07 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will need to step up right here, right now, or they will have to hibernate for a bit
2010-10-07 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a platform for the next leg higher
2010-10-07 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it could be a simple top
2010-10-07 16:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my gut is suggesting
2010-10-07 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we're close to some sort of cyclical low here
2010-10-07 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be of the 4 year variety
2010-10-07 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the Tom McClellan's Presidential Cycle in play here
2010-10-07 16:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the 3rd year tends to be the best of the 4 year period
2010-10-07 16:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that 3rd year starts next month
2010-10-07 16:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the point here though
2010-10-07 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if we're dealing with a cycle influence
2010-10-07 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cycle nestlings can occur one of two ways
2010-10-07 16:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some where we see prices decline into those lows
2010-10-07 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and times in which we move up and out of these same nesting periods
2010-10-07 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the second one will usually occur during times of high liquidity as we have right now
2010-10-07 16:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would be prepared for anything for the next several weeks
2010-10-07 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-10-07 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another quick point on the SPX and OEX price charts
2010-10-07 16:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how after the breakout on Tuesday, that all we've done is snapped back to the previous tops
2010-10-07 16:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we did this while killing time waiting for some key economic data
2010-10-07 16:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO is also at its neutral line
2010-10-07 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, here again, one side is about to take control of the action
2010-10-07 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the Dow
2010-10-07 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO now has a reading of +7
2010-10-07 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call it a zero line test there too
2010-10-07 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM is now at +500 - on the nose
2010-10-07 16:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2010-10-07 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line test on the SML breadth MCO
2010-10-07 16:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM closed at +248
2010-10-07 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something big is going to happen very soon
2010-10-07 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally..we would love to see a pullback here
2010-10-07 16:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just don't know any more given that we should had seen some sort of pause for the last 3 weeks
2010-10-07 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's is just so much money out there now
2010-10-07 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: massive amounts
2010-10-07 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lots of it is making close to nothing in a T-Bill account
2010-10-07 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the total market data fully reflects all of the markets right now
2010-10-07 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback to the MCO
2010-10-07 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM at a 250 multiple
2010-10-07 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm getting a good feel now that something important is about to happen
2010-10-07 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sectors...
2010-10-07 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLY is short term neutral
2010-10-07 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLP is chopping around below its MCO zero line
2010-10-07 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE has reached its upside price target now
2010-10-07 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLE breadth MCO continues to look positive
2010-10-07 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a nice complex pattern above its zero line
2010-10-07 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as expected
2010-10-07 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCSUM is now back to its zero line
2010-10-07 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that buyers and sellers are even up on an intermediate term basis now
2010-10-07 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, well, well
2010-10-07 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...here's a play for ya
2010-10-07 16:56:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF looks to be ready to break out to the upside now
2010-10-07 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any rally above $15 is a strong buy at this specific juncture
2010-10-07 16:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for this
2010-10-07 16:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is if you look at the XLF breadth MCO
2010-10-07 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see that we have a textured structure over the last couple of weeks
2010-10-07 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broke out above the zero line
2010-10-07 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have now snapped back to it
2010-10-07 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the while
2010-10-07 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM has given us our obligatory snapback down to its zero line
2010-10-07 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now riding that line horizontally...waiting...
2010-10-07 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components are also in gear with the MCO itself
2010-10-07 16:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this may be the sector to watch tomorrow
2010-10-07 16:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew!
2010-10-07 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5 bottoms above a bottom on the XLF breadth MCO
2010-10-07 16:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's powerful
2010-10-07 16:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2010-10-07 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be like a platform diver bouncing up and down on a diving board
2010-10-07 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and getting higher and higher in preparation for the dive itself
2010-10-07 17:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2010-10-07 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a mighty high flag on the XLF breadth MCO in early September that still hasn't seen a divergent high as yet
2010-10-07 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that flag gives us an upside objective of 16
2010-10-07 17:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which are the May highs
2010-10-07 17:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...could be a good vehicle if played right
2010-10-07 17:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2010-10-07 17:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going into tomorrow
2010-10-07 17:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is evenly split on their opinion of the XLF
2010-10-07 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLV breadth MCO
2010-10-07 17:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV breadth MCSUM is hanging around the +750 level
2010-10-07 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: may not be jobs related
2010-10-07 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be earnings surprises that push the market higher
2010-10-07 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2010-10-07 17:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rally in September has discounted 3rd quarter earnings already
2010-10-07 17:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having reached its upside price objective, the XLI continues to chop around
2010-10-07 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until we can get the XLI breadth MCSUM above its August highs
2010-10-07 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sector where an accident is just waiting to happen
2010-10-07 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's amazing how many MCSUM's are either at their +250, +500, or +750 levels right now
2010-10-07 17:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO took it on the chin today
2010-10-07 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLB breadth MCSUM is high enough to absorb the punishment
2010-10-07 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and why you should take your time in shorting gold right now)
2010-10-07 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO had a small point change today
2010-10-07 17:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the price pattern as close as it is to the April highs
2010-10-07 17:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't take much to push it above those levels
2010-10-07 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a point - point and a quarter - that's all that's needed
2010-10-07 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU continues to trek higher
2010-10-07 17:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLU breadth MCSUM slides along its +750 level
2010-10-07 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-10-07 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much more to digest here
2010-10-07 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market continues to churn away...with a bullish bias
2010-10-07 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the volume data
2010-10-07 17:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money continues to trickle into the CO and composite NYSE volume MCSUM's
2010-10-07 17:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much sideways action with the secondaries (NASDAQ)
2010-10-07 17:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MID and SML both continue to see higher highs in their volume MCSUM's
2010-10-07 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the TM volume MCO
2010-10-07 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point changes are always a sign of near term indecision
2010-10-07 17:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for something
2010-10-07 17:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking for clarity
2010-10-07 17:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "tension on the tape"
2010-10-07 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE volume MCSUM is also at its zero line now
2010-10-07 17:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this sector is now rated neutral overall
2010-10-07 17:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF volume data is also suggesting that something big is about to take place
2010-10-07 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the texture of bottoms above bottoms in the XLF volume MCO suggesting the odds to be better with the longs
2010-10-07 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get a sell off here
2010-10-07 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI would be the leader
2010-10-07 17:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both breadth and volume look sloppy
2010-10-07 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other than that...everything is pretty much ho hum right now
2010-10-07 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now back to their zero lines
2010-10-07 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today being the day in which a price top would be seen given the "overbought" readings of Tuesday
2010-10-07 17:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are on the bullish side of neutral
2010-10-07 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the VTO's
2010-10-07 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE STVO and VTO's are now "overbought"
2010-10-07 17:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.22
2010-10-07 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2010-10-07 17:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm
2010-10-07 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .44
2010-10-07 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2010-10-07 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2010-10-07 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .63
2010-10-07 17:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.01
2010-10-07 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we have to continue to give the nod to the bulls here trend wise
2010-10-07 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's theirs to lose
2010-10-07 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: P/C ratios are not saying much either
2010-10-07 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but short interest continues to climb
2010-10-07 17:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually sets a foundation
2010-10-07 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the sector charts - one moment
2010-10-07 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of the exchange charts, ICE looks to be picking up buyers here
2010-10-07 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, of course, that's on the back on the oil market's recent rally
2010-10-07 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest are trending sideways
2010-10-07 17:23:54 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I noticed TNX gapped down yesterday. Below a trendline I have going back to the beginning of the 80's on log scale. Last time it was below was in December 08. Treasuries have been gaining since April. What do you think of that?
2010-10-07 17:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, NYX has remained in a sideways consolidation for about 5 months now
2010-10-07 17:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2010-10-07 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think that that it would be extraordinary to see rates go any lower (bond prices higher)
2010-10-07 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-10-07 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the Bond CEF A/D line moves higher
2010-10-07 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rates are pretty much going to stay at or near 21 month lows for the unforeseen future
2010-10-07 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has really changed in 4 months on that
2010-10-07 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just remember
2010-10-07 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that (I think it was last month) that the TNX also gapped down
2010-10-07 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then fully retraced that gap eventually
2010-10-07 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day there will be a top
2010-10-07 17:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the top won't come until traders are able to recognize anything that would resemble an expansion
2010-10-07 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED has made it very clear that is has absolutely no intention of raising rates
2010-10-07 17:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though the market tends to know better than the FED
2010-10-07 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an accomodative policy like the one we have now is going to put continued pressure on longer term yields
2010-10-07 17:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key though with longer term rates is with the Bond CEF's
2010-10-07 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until they break trend
2010-10-07 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any gap lower will turn out to be hyperbole
2010-10-07 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just something to talk about
2010-10-07 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing worth trading on
2010-10-07 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2010-10-07 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that rates are VERY slow to turn
2010-10-07 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will tend to chop a lot before getting in gear
2010-10-07 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was just looking at my TNX data that goes back to the early 80's this morning
2010-10-07 17:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there isn't anything as yet that suggests to me a trend break
2010-10-07 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: log scale could be different
2010-10-07 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're dealing with a conservative, non volatile asset class
2010-10-07 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know how important looking at the chart that is based on percentage moves, as opposed to nominal movements in price, might be in the longer term
2010-10-07 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: log scale wise
2010-10-07 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could wind up with many fan formation lines
2010-10-07 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which all of them have been broken over the last 20 years
2010-10-07 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bigger trend has remained higher
2010-10-07 17:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all perception I guess
2010-10-07 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like when you look at a full moon
2010-10-07 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it always looks bigger at the horizon than it does when its over head
2010-10-07 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you extend your thumb out towards the moon, and close one eye, no matter the angle, you're able to cover it
2010-10-07 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when it comes to really long term charts
2010-10-07 17:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess it all depends on what we look for
2010-10-07 17:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2010-10-07 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day does not make a top
2010-10-07 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less a reversal of trend
2010-10-07 17:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could turn out to be
2010-10-07 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there really isn't enough concrete data to tell your family about
2010-10-07 17:34:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-10-07 17:34:46 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks for your judgment
2010-10-07 17:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just an opinion
2010-10-07 17:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all have one
2010-10-07 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just pulled up the chart
2010-10-07 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an island reversal might be in the cards
2010-10-07 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically...
2010-10-07 17:36:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're in a bearish configuration - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/tnx100710.png
2010-10-07 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take a lot of work to change that
2010-10-07 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: months...
2010-10-07 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do top
2010-10-07 17:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be given due credit
2010-10-07 17:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the way I work
2010-10-07 17:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to be as reasonable as possible
2010-10-07 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no bias
2010-10-07 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I only know what the chart pattern shows me
2010-10-07 17:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always easy to anticipate what will be next
2010-10-07 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until there is evidence to support that forecast
2010-10-07 17:38:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just an idea
2010-10-07 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based partially on experience
2010-10-07 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the other based on what sounds logical - on an emotional basis
2010-10-07 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem with humans
2010-10-07 17:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are always afraid of what we don't understand or can't control
2010-10-07 17:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what technical analysis gives us though
2010-10-07 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that with time we start to understand its movements
2010-10-07 17:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving us with our emotions betraying us
2010-10-07 17:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when you listen to others, you really have to take it as just an opinion
2010-10-07 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to never let that opinion overrule what you see on graph paper
2010-10-07 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let's see who's leading who..
2010-10-07 17:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmmm - XBI looks like the NDX
2010-10-07 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BIK is now above its April highs
2010-10-07 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's been looking good since the beginning of September
2010-10-07 17:43:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if Brazil, Russia, India and China combined can move above the April highs
2010-10-07 17:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these countries manufacture
2010-10-07 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can the service economies be far behind?
2010-10-07 17:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also suggest
2010-10-07 17:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any US multi-nationals should be looked at
2010-10-07 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FXI poked its head above the April highs on Tuesday and has now moved back below them
2010-10-07 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with commodities - DBC
2010-10-07 17:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to tell you...
2010-10-07 17:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the global markets are in sync here
2010-10-07 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IYT remains sluggish
2010-10-07 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not a good thing
2010-10-07 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you think UNG is ever going to rally again?
2010-10-07 17:47:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-10-07 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EFA was turned away from its April highs today
2010-10-07 17:47:44 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Could be a ST bottom today
2010-10-07 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be...only because I made the statement! lol
2010-10-07 17:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rest of the energy sector looks lethargic
2010-10-07 17:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as mentioned earlier
2010-10-07 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: large outside range day on the GLD
2010-10-07 17:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still on a buy signal
2010-10-07 17:49:15 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Also on SLV
2010-10-07 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last time we saw one of those was at the end of June
2010-10-07 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HHH continues to look strong
2010-10-07 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now testing its April highs as well
2010-10-07 17:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew...nice rally in GAF
2010-10-07 17:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Middle East and African stocks
2010-10-07 17:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SDY at new highs
2010-10-07 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as PW mentioned...SLV also get hit today
2010-10-07 17:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also has gained 20% in a month, so some sort of rest is warranted
2010-10-07 17:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buy signal today generated on SWH (software)
2010-10-07 17:54:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and telecom continues to scream north - ETF
2010-10-07 17:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty pattern on the daily
2010-10-07 17:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about it
2010-10-07 17:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else looks the same as it did 2 months ago
2010-10-07 17:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: treading sideways
2010-10-07 17:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-07 17:55:16 [Message] darris -> Chat: So what do we do now, in say the next 3 days before we chat again? thanks
2010-10-07 17:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2010-10-07 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess
2010-10-07 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we wait
2010-10-07 17:55:33 [Message] darris -> Chat: LOL
2010-10-07 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nod goes to the bulls because the bears haven't created any cracks to fall through as yet
2010-10-07 17:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you pull back and look at the daily patterns
2010-10-07 17:56:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: If you care to comment on this example. What if we have a 2% down day, would you wait to buy the dip?
2010-10-07 17:56:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still in the trading range we talked about back in June
2010-10-07 17:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would depend on the internals
2010-10-07 17:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the guidelines given on Tuesday are pretty much the same
2010-10-07 17:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the numbers for the MCO on Friday
2010-10-07 17:57:43 [Message] darris -> Chat: Purely on a NYSE MCO perspective, if we did have a hard day down, we should take the MCO down to the minus 20-30 range. I am just war gaming a bit
2010-10-07 17:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a zero point change = +268
2010-10-07 17:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a zero line to hold = +209
2010-10-07 17:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately, the market isn't really sure
2010-10-07 17:58:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would just be careful of opening volatility
2010-10-07 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what we do know
2010-10-07 17:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any decline intraday is STILL not likely to hold
2010-10-07 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM's are just to high for anything to get started
2010-10-07 17:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do close lower as the outside range bars suggest
2010-10-07 17:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should pop back up in quick session
2010-10-07 18:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've seen this happen time after time for over 3 weeks now
2010-10-07 18:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time
2010-10-07 18:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the short term trend of breadth (MCO) is breaks above the +25 level
2010-10-07 18:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're locked
2010-10-07 18:00:28 [Message] darris -> Chat: In summary, I can build a shorter term indicator assessment to look for down using 5 to 21 period data, but my Price Filter data is in no danger of any bearish assessment until we have a hard down day.
2010-10-07 18:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed...it's a hit and run market
2010-10-07 18:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trend wise...the path of least resistance remains higher
2010-10-07 18:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of that
2010-10-07 18:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any trades made on the long side will tend to be easier
2010-10-07 18:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and last longer (overnight)
2010-10-07 18:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wish I could give you more, but you see what I see
2010-10-07 18:02:36 [Message] darris -> Chat: Well you nailed that on the head. Today was a perfect example of that. Hit R2 this morning in pre-market, and then hit S2 around Noon, and still ended flat for the day basically. NDX picked up some relative strength while the ES based a little longer, and then the RUT looked pretty stable at the end of the day as well.
2010-10-07 18:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as the internals are saying
2010-10-07 18:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just the inter interpreter
2010-10-07 18:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-07 18:03:43 [Message] darris -> Chat: Have a great weekend, and thanks for your thoughts and coverage!!
2010-10-07 18:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my pleasure
2010-10-07 18:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's all hope for a breakout soon
2010-10-07 18:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't care which way
2010-10-07 18:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm getting tired of "sideways"
2010-10-07 18:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2010-10-07 18:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-10-07 18:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2010-10-07 18:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll get together again on Tuesday
2010-10-07 18:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-10-07 18:04:45 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks a good weekend to you

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