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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
(Continued from Part 1)

2008-10-07 20:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ data, let's start with the price chart
2008-10-07 20:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those who have been around awhile
2008-10-07 20:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the current price pattern structure should look very familiar as it basically mimics the 1987 collapse
2008-10-07 20:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the top beneath the top from what should had been a rounding bottom formation and the demise of the failure of the pattern to hold together
2008-10-07 20:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on this price chart we also have a couple of other things to work with
2008-10-07 20:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first is the Sign of the Bear pattern we've talked about at the beginning of this year
2008-10-07 20:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: needless to say, a pattern that hasn't been written about in any book, but the consequences of which can be deadly as to the forecast it implies
2008-10-07 20:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we have the measuring gap we've been talking about today which, on a horizontal level, occurred right at what was key technical price support at the 2000 level
2008-10-07 20:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again....this was something that was to watched for last week, and the importance of this same level became all too clear yesterday
2008-10-07 20:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...on the flip side of the coin, some may be thinking that this gap could be one of "exhaustion"
2008-10-07 20:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key to exhaustion gaps is that they are never confirmed by breadth of market
2008-10-07 20:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this case, breadth of market continues to lead to the downside
2008-10-07 20:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the odds of this being one of exhaustion is less than 5%
2008-10-07 20:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would also mean that the cousin of this pattern gap - the island reversal - is a low probability as well
2008-10-07 20:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would had been one thing if breadth of market eased during this decline, but the power of this decline is too overwhelming...breaking support at areas in which other tangents of TA are also showing as being important to the longer term health of the price action itself
2008-10-07 20:57:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: well, breadth eased from yesterday 1:30
2008-10-07 20:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...everything works together
2008-10-07 20:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it did
2008-10-07 20:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we didn't wash out
2008-10-07 20:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my thinking - with the FED opening up the spigot yesterday before the open, this capital was finding its way into the markets towards the close
2008-10-07 20:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it was an orchestrated rally
2008-10-07 20:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that...and being terribly "oversold" - from where many smart people decided to put a toe in the water
2008-10-07 20:59:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Fed was trying to inject something like a trillion dollars....don't know where they ended yesterday?
2008-10-07 21:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: goes to show you that the FED can only temporarily put their thumb on the scale in this regard - the market is just too big to handle in this fashion
2008-10-07 21:00:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: kinda like the housing market, the credit card market, and the commercial real estate market
2008-10-07 21:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what should push the market lower into the upcoming lows will probably not so much be on the news from Washington, but more based on what makes stocks go in the first place - earnings
2008-10-07 21:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, yes, and yes
2008-10-07 21:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can add business credit and letters of credit
2008-10-07 21:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: buying food at supermarkets on a credit card - it goes on and on
2008-10-07 21:02:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the fed converted the apt next door and put a printing press in it, its on 24/7/365
2008-10-07 21:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all for the sake of living in a "cashless society"
2008-10-07 21:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...it is one of the items in the Constitution
2008-10-07 21:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I digress
2008-10-07 21:03:35 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: "its stocks going down that makes people sell"
2008-10-07 21:03:35 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: FED asked printing press supplier for more machines, but supplier requires payment in gold...
2008-10-07 21:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway - you can see how the NASDAQ breadth MCO is now at multi month lows
2008-10-07 21:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir...big smile to mojave
2008-10-07 21:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me check the longer term chart on the NASDAQ - one moment
2008-10-07 21:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh boy...
2008-10-07 21:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today's reading on the NASDAQ breadth MCO was the lowest in over 10 years - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&st=1998-01-01&i=t25702557930&r=7428
2008-10-07 21:06:10 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: DP lt chart shows 1987
2008-10-07 21:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the NYSE?
2008-10-07 21:06:29 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: Nasdaq
2008-10-07 21:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-10-07 21:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..the one thing I know is that the 9/11 posting on the RA NYSE is the lowest on record at -120 - we're now at -100
2008-10-07 21:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning we are highly "oversold", but during panic phases, that doesn't mean too much
2008-10-07 21:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also broke to new lows on the NDX breadth MCO
2008-10-07 21:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM, we have now broken below the previous lows
2008-10-07 21:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...there's not a lot of reason to stick around now - for even if we do find a foot hold here, it's going to take months to rebuild
2008-10-07 21:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably not until next spring at the earliest
2008-10-07 21:09:47 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: TRIN, CVIs, PVIs, etc *may* offer hope for bounce in here...?
2008-10-07 21:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and look at the angle of descent on the NDX...wow
2008-10-07 21:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the 10% components also "hope" for a bounce too
2008-10-07 21:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we now have downside charting objectives to work with
2008-10-07 21:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe if we have a hard sell off in the morning...we can gain a near term footing
2008-10-07 21:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we open higher...watch out
2008-10-07 21:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO is also challenging last years lows
2008-10-07 21:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now....on the bright side
2008-10-07 21:12:25 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: interesting the nasdaq is sitting on weekly support at 1754 900ma
2008-10-07 21:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the breadth MCO does make these high negative extremes, it does suggest that the blunt of the selling is behind us
2008-10-07 21:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this a rare event occurring right now
2008-10-07 21:12:49 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: (nikkei in free fall, now -431)
2008-10-07 21:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not too often we get crash like events
2008-10-07 21:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as a reminder, with the MCSUM's as low as they are, the expectation of a one day wonder is diminished
2008-10-07 21:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where, in this case, we should see a multi day/week event giving us the same conclusion
2008-10-07 21:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the general public now, the 10,000 level has been broken
2008-10-07 21:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the technicians out there, the 1060/1080 SPX support levels have also gone
2008-10-07 21:14:34 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: yeah opening higher is gonna be a scary thing
2008-10-07 21:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so there "should be" both fundamental and technical selling that will continue to put pressure on prices
2008-10-07 21:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less...those who need to get out...or just to switch to protect their savings
2008-10-07 21:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...this could get a lot nastier before it gets any better
2008-10-07 21:15:50 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: are you saying one can stay short for the intermediate term?
2008-10-07 21:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's a clue...
2008-10-07 21:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when no one is looking...THEN you will see a reversal
2008-10-07 21:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after the upcoming bounce, yes...the measuring gap would be hard resistance to break through
2008-10-07 21:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never chase
2008-10-07 21:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you chase...you get screwed
2008-10-07 21:17:20 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: i learned that many times
2008-10-07 21:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I don't want to hear that anyone hurt themselves by banging their heads against a wall in frustration
2008-10-07 21:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: discipline is very important in its necessity
2008-10-07 21:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you miss a chance...there will be others
2008-10-07 21:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there will ALWAYS be other times to trade
2008-10-07 21:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wait for your set up, not the markets
2008-10-07 21:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and know that the easier money will now be made on the downside for a while
2008-10-07 21:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you know what's a bit scary?
2008-10-07 21:19:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the OEX and Dow breadth MCO's
2008-10-07 21:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we still haven't reached last years extremes yet
2008-10-07 21:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which probably means that these two indices will have to play catch up
2008-10-07 21:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep in mind that when you talk about the market with others, you're usually are talking the Dow
2008-10-07 21:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and looking at the internals here, the Dow still hasn't seen the kind of forceful selling yet than that of the broader market
2008-10-07 21:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be another clue to watch for in anticipation of a bottom - the Dow moving harder to the downside, but the broad market doesn't sell off as bad
2008-10-07 21:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth data is self explanatory
2008-10-07 21:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and look at the price pattern...it just feel off a cliff
2008-10-07 21:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...we'll be talking about these days for many years to come
2008-10-07 21:22:32 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: gonna be hard to sleep this evening
2008-10-07 21:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as unfortunate as they are, these times are rare events, and this should excite the technician in all of us
2008-10-07 21:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't worry about what you can't control
2008-10-07 21:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have a plan, discuss it, and then execute it
2008-10-07 21:23:19 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: my hat off to you who can see the big picture..i am just a small day trader..but this is eye opening
2008-10-07 21:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: new lows on the SML breadth MCO
2008-10-07 21:23:42 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: yep ur right
2008-10-07 21:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything you do as a day trader is based fully on what the bigger picture trend is
2008-10-07 21:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and everything the big picture conveys is based on the flow of money
2008-10-07 21:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we almost had it...and it just got sucked out
2008-10-07 21:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a shame really...but something like this could have happened today or 10 years from now
2008-10-07 21:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and new lows on the TM breadth MCO
2008-10-07 21:25:24 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: feel sorry for the people who wanted to retire soon
2008-10-07 21:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a quick look at the volume data...one moment
2008-10-07 21:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't...for every buyer there is a seller
2008-10-07 21:25:57 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: yes true
2008-10-07 21:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like a tax return
2008-10-07 21:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you are responsible for what you do and when you do it
2008-10-07 21:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...good news
2008-10-07 21:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the volume oscillators are now fully "oversold" (but at what price?)
2008-10-07 21:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Oh yea...I was going to check the MCO and MCSUM volume data
2008-10-07 21:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as an aside...the CVI's suggest a possible turn higher in the next two trading sessions (but you could had said that yesterday as well)
2008-10-07 21:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better to watch the price action for now...and the internals
2008-10-07 21:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if, let's say, the A/D line is over 90% to the bad, with an hour before the close, it's a pretty good bet we're going to close negative
2008-10-07 21:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: new lows on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2008-10-07 21:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...look at the destruction on the MID volume MCO
2008-10-07 21:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if you look at where this is all happening, it is in direct relation to what was horizontal support on the price charts
2008-10-07 21:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a character move for the bears
2008-10-07 21:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same with situation with the SML volume MCO data
2008-10-07 21:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no hope there
2008-10-07 21:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone see anything that was triggered today on the SML price chart?
2008-10-07 21:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone see the SOB pattern on the daily chart?
2008-10-07 21:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sharp move lower from last October, a double top, and down we went
2008-10-07 21:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would imply that - longer term - the small caps are in for a whole lot of hurt
2008-10-07 21:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably for more than a year - if not two
2008-10-07 21:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ah oh - new 3 year lows on the TM volume MCO today
2008-10-07 21:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at the sector volume oscillator charts you'll see that the market is very close to being washed out in total
2008-10-07 21:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 3.07
2008-10-07 21:36:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 now "oversold" at 1.18
2008-10-07 21:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 7.06 (!)
2008-10-07 21:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that was after a fiver last week
2008-10-07 21:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a great bit of education on crashes - absorb this like a sponge
2008-10-07 21:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ Open 10 at 1.16
2008-10-07 21:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow - TM TRIN at 5.41
2008-10-07 21:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't think I've ever seen that before
2008-10-07 21:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.18
2008-10-07 21:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....
2008-10-07 21:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what can I say that I haven't already
2008-10-07 21:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is going to take time to work itself out
2008-10-07 21:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we now have major price pattern resistance at the opening gaps of Monday
2008-10-07 21:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we should look for much lower prices over the next several months
2008-10-07 21:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how are the futures?
2008-10-07 21:40:15 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: negative /// slightly
2008-10-07 21:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...good
2008-10-07 21:40:28 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: ES -1
2008-10-07 21:40:38 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: YM -11
2008-10-07 21:40:41 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: so do you see a bounce the next couple days
2008-10-07 21:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would seem that the majority of the moves of late have been taking place when Europe opens
2008-10-07 21:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...there will be a bounce in the next couple of days...
2008-10-07 21:41:04 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Yes and then repeated premarket here
2008-10-07 21:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but....
2008-10-07 21:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from what level?
2008-10-07 21:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes geo
2008-10-07 21:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-10-07 21:41:50 [Message] ron -> Main Room: how long will a bounce last in time?
2008-10-07 21:41:53 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: would you buy a gap down tomorrow for a trade?
2008-10-07 21:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Oh...before I forget
2008-10-07 21:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm not good in time areas
2008-10-07 21:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I will say this
2008-10-07 21:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to give you an example
2008-10-07 21:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in 87
2008-10-07 21:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market opened down another 200 points on the 20th, and then closed up 181 (I think)
2008-10-07 21:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then trended lower into the December lows
2008-10-07 21:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's really hard to say
2008-10-07 21:43:11 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: crashed, bounced 10%, then freaked everyone out a week later
2008-10-07 21:43:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because you're doing with something that isn't a constant
2008-10-07 21:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-07 21:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would I buy a gap down?
2008-10-07 21:43:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only if breadth was not confirming the move
2008-10-07 21:44:05 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: may be too late by then
2008-10-07 21:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I gave up trying to pick bottoms
2008-10-07 21:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I rather KNOW when a bottom has passed
2008-10-07 21:44:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, got to say that this looks like a potential bottom for a bounce, but that is what I thought yesterday
2008-10-07 21:44:50 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: I meant a vst trade for a rally to gap resistance
2008-10-07 21:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if I were trading this
2008-10-07 21:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would see how things look once we approach the first downside pattern objective
2008-10-07 21:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 899 SPX - 8917 for the Dow
2008-10-07 21:45:22 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: bought some calls on the close... 'bounce lotto"
2008-10-07 21:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no sense in buying a gap if the market is going to continue to move in that direction
2008-10-07 21:45:41 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: but it just hasn't felt 'capitulative' to me...
2008-10-07 21:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and still you bought calls?
2008-10-07 21:46:00 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: possibly because I'm all cash
2008-10-07 21:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: itchy trigger finger
2008-10-07 21:47:35 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: futures green
2008-10-07 21:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who am I to say?
2008-10-07 21:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: futures green...great!
2008-10-07 21:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that way Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie can sleep well tonight!
2008-10-07 21:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK - I have to go...
2008-10-07 21:48:19 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: Is yahoo intraday a/d data real time or not?
2008-10-07 21:48:22 [Message] ron -> Main Room: thank you, dave
2008-10-07 21:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great rest of the day
2008-10-07 21:48:23 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: NQ leading so it may stick overnight
2008-10-07 21:48:29 [Message] scottzman -> Main Room: thanks very much for your time/education
2008-10-07 21:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crystal - they do a good enough job...it's supposed to be real time
2008-10-07 21:48:51 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: yes crystal
2008-10-07 21:48:59 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: thanks so much
2008-10-07 21:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat on Thursday
2008-10-07 21:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-10-07 21:49:19 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: thanks Fib



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