All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 5,158
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-06 16:00:22 fib1618: good day
2015-10-06 16:00:26 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-06 16:00:46 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-10-06 16:02:17 fib1618: doing fine
2015-10-06 16:02:26 fib1618: quite a couple of days, huh?
2015-10-06 16:02:58 thespookyone: Oh yea, saw that trin Monday during the day at .35
2015-10-06 16:03:31 fib1618: it was also fairly low on Friday as well
2015-10-06 16:03:40 thespookyone: yep
2015-10-06 16:03:52 rite01: What does .35 mean trin?
2015-10-06 16:03:58 fib1618: short covering by and large
2015-10-06 16:04:14 rite01: thanks
2015-10-06 16:04:33 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-10-06 16:05:06 rite01: No but a comment
2015-10-06 16:05:53 rite01: Very pleased what I've learned at TT.  For first time been able to detect and safely navigate through last several months bottoms and tops. something I never would have dreamed of just a few months ago  Thank you
2015-10-06 16:05:56 fib1618: sure...I'll check the cumulative charts in the meantime
2015-10-06 16:06:13 fib1618: you mean TW [smile]
2015-10-06 16:06:19 thespookyone: GREAT!
2015-10-06 16:06:40 rite01: Yes TW ... hardly visit TT anymore
2015-10-06 16:06:42 fib1618: I guess that means that I should raise my prices, right? [smile]
2015-10-06 16:07:07 fib1618: here's the thing
2015-10-06 16:07:14 fib1618: the people who do subscribe here
2015-10-06 16:07:24 fib1618: no longer post in TT anymore
2015-10-06 16:07:34 fib1618: I can't say whether they visit though
2015-10-06 16:07:42 fib1618: but once you get the hang of this
2015-10-06 16:08:17 fib1618: everything else can be problematic to listen to
2015-10-06 16:08:21 thespookyone: I came here a long time ago as a pretty fair trader, and Dave has taught me a ton-it grows on you
2015-10-06 16:08:52 fib1618: well...thank you both for the kind words
2015-10-06 16:09:10 rite01: Thanks Lew and you were right about  it does take a lot of work
2015-10-06 16:09:20 fib1618: you have to relearn stuff
2015-10-06 16:09:29 rite01: Yep!
2015-10-06 16:09:41 fib1618: but once you gain confidence, it hopefully opens new doors
2015-10-06 16:09:48 thespookyone: You're welcome, and the nuance of it takes work and time-but WELL worth it
2015-10-06 16:09:54 fib1618: one sec...let me check the cums
2015-10-06 16:10:42 fib1618: -35 on the BETS
2015-10-06 16:11:03 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-06 16:11:06 fib1618: on the surface
2015-10-06 16:11:35 fib1618: it looks like our idea of an Elliott flat "C" in progress has come to fruition
2015-10-06 16:11:46 fib1618: so let's get SC up and get started
2015-10-06 16:11:47 unc1998: nice call
2015-10-06 16:11:51 fib1618: nah
2015-10-06 16:11:56 fib1618: it was kind of lucky
2015-10-06 16:12:12 fib1618: was an option given last week because of the way the market was holding at the September lows
2015-10-06 16:12:24 fib1618: and the divergence in the NYSE breadth MCO's
2015-10-06 16:12:38 fib1618: now we have to see if the others have fallen in line or not
2015-10-06 16:12:42 fib1618: otherwise
2015-10-06 16:12:47 rite01: Got love those divergences
2015-10-06 16:12:50 unc1998: getting close to a Zweig breadth thrust, but not quite there
2015-10-06 16:12:51 fib1618: being that the rally has been short and sharp
2015-10-06 16:13:01 rite01: You noticed, huh?
2015-10-06 16:13:05 fib1618: it's personality is that of a bear market rally
2015-10-06 16:13:19 fib1618: yea...I noticed the Zweig EMA yesterday
2015-10-06 16:13:24 fib1618: let me check today's reading
2015-10-06 16:13:58 thespookyone: And, we near the 50 on the SPX, and are close to completing a flat on the Dow, a good place to be very cautious in trading...
2015-10-06 16:14:03 fib1618: day 1 is on the 29th
2015-10-06 16:14:23 fib1618: so the 10th day would be the 13th
2015-10-06 16:14:43 fib1618: today's reading is 53%
2015-10-06 16:15:08 fib1618: one thing we can say though
2015-10-06 16:15:19 fib1618: is that this has been an outstanding traders market
2015-10-06 16:15:32 rite01: Would it be better for Zweig to signal around the August lows?
2015-10-06 16:15:33 fib1618: if you still have the stomach for it [smile]
2015-10-06 16:15:58 unc1998: I had a great couple of days [smile]
2015-10-06 16:16:29 fib1618: the rule for the Zweig thrust is that the indicator must move from below 40% to 61.5% in 10 trading days
2015-10-06 16:16:36 fib1618: so we didn't get it in August
2015-10-06 16:16:52 rite01: I meant low in the Index prices
2015-10-06 16:17:28 fib1618: prices are not as important as the breadth that generates the sequence/trigger of the event
2015-10-06 16:17:43 fib1618: prices fall in line later
2015-10-06 16:17:52 fib1618: in other words
2015-10-06 16:18:09 fib1618: you can have a higher low in prices with a breadth thrust confirmation coming after
2015-10-06 16:18:15 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-06 16:18:20 fib1618: like we saw in August
2015-10-06 16:18:36 fib1618: which was the end of an Elliott 3rd wave of one degree or the other
2015-10-06 16:18:53 fib1618: the market was only able to bounce to the half way point from that extreme in the oscillators
2015-10-06 16:19:01 fib1618: which then caused the retest of the price lows
2015-10-06 16:19:10 fib1618: now that the retest is out of the way
2015-10-06 16:19:15 fib1618: and putting Elliott aside
2015-10-06 16:19:30 fib1618: that would be the "nominal" low in prices
2015-10-06 16:19:43 fib1618: as opposed to the "orthodox" low in August
2015-10-06 16:19:51 rite01: Ok just learned something else..  FYI: I'm going to have to leave early tonight but will stay logged on....
2015-10-06 16:20:20 fib1618: the orthodox showing the greatest degree of "oversold" readings during that particular price sequence
2015-10-06 16:20:28 fib1618: no problemo
2015-10-06 16:20:38 fib1618: I'll just keep typing away until I nod off [smile]
2015-10-06 16:20:44 fib1618: speaking of which
2015-10-06 16:20:51 fib1618: let's get going before I do [smile]
2015-10-06 16:21:20 fib1618: after providing us with a small point change on Thursday
2015-10-06 16:21:35 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has moved sharply higher since that time
2015-10-06 16:22:00 fib1618: and we have now moved to new 9 month highs on the MCO as a result of this
2015-10-06 16:22:01 fib1618: now...
2015-10-06 16:22:18 fib1618: if the NYCO AD line were in a bullish configuration
2015-10-06 16:22:35 fib1618: this would be your standard, everyday, breadth thrust
2015-10-06 16:22:50 fib1618: with a classic divergent low last week
2015-10-06 16:22:56 fib1618: and the higher high as a result
2015-10-06 16:22:57 fib1618: now...
2015-10-06 16:23:02 fib1618: as we also know
2015-10-06 16:23:34 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM suggested to us that we should have a tradable bottom around the beginning of October
2015-10-06 16:23:48 fib1618: and the last couple of days would pretty much suffice with this forecast
2015-10-06 16:23:51 fib1618: however
2015-10-06 16:23:57 fib1618: as we talked about on Thursday
2015-10-06 16:24:52 fib1618: we still have many index charts that are not moving in what we would call a "proper sequence" in order to believe that this forecasted low is indeed one that would change the direction of prices from down to up
2015-10-06 16:25:06 fib1618: so we have a bit of a problem here at this juncture
2015-10-06 16:25:17 fib1618: though things "feel" pretty good for the buyers
2015-10-06 16:25:38 fib1618: they still may be missing the necessary components in order to allow prices to move back above their EMA's
2015-10-06 16:26:14 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2015-10-06 16:26:34 fib1618: and we see that we have a upside breakout in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM on Monday
2015-10-06 16:26:49 fib1618: and good follow through today on this break above resistance
2015-10-06 16:27:11 fib1618: this, in and of itself, is enough to where we should fully respect this for what it does imply
2015-10-06 16:27:40 fib1618: especially if the 5% Trend of the CO MCO is able to find snapback support at its zero line today
2015-10-06 16:27:52 fib1618: and move sharply higher on Wednesday
2015-10-06 16:28:05 fib1618: for far
2015-10-06 16:28:24 fib1618: this move to new highs in the CO MCO
2015-10-06 16:28:39 fib1618: tells us that we are in an Elliott 3rd wave to the upside of one degree of the other
2015-10-06 16:28:52 fib1618: but it doesn't fully tell us if this is a corrective or impulsive pattern
2015-10-06 16:29:11 fib1618: let me check the CO AD sec
2015-10-06 16:29:47 fib1618: and it's still in a strong bearish configuration with its EMA's
2015-10-06 16:29:53 fib1618: to give you visual
2015-10-06 16:30:03 fib1618: the cumulative line has moved above the 19 and 39 day EMA's
2015-10-06 16:30:09 fib1618: which both are still moving lower
2015-10-06 16:30:18 fib1618: well...
2015-10-06 16:30:20 fib1618: actually
2015-10-06 16:30:31 fib1618: when we look at the 10% component
2015-10-06 16:30:34 fib1618: it's rising
2015-10-06 16:30:44 fib1618: and the 5% is just now turning the corner
2015-10-06 16:31:00 fib1618: but the 19 is leading the 39 to the downside
2015-10-06 16:31:12 fib1618: and that is the most important information we have to work with here
2015-10-06 16:32:05 fib1618: and keeps us from falling into any kind of trap that Friday's reversal, and follow though on Monday, is still within the context of a technical bear TREND in money flow
2015-10-06 16:32:28 fib1618: now...the problem with bear market rally's is that they tend to fizzle out very quickly
2015-10-06 16:32:43 fib1618: as they generate a high amount of emotion
2015-10-06 16:32:51 fib1618: so that those who are short cover quickly
2015-10-06 16:33:08 fib1618: and those who try to get cute just KNOW that a bottom in prices are behind us
2015-10-06 16:33:18 fib1618: once that fuel is all used up
2015-10-06 16:33:29 fib1618: then we start to decay rapidly
2015-10-06 16:33:35 fib1618: and aside from a final thrust
2015-10-06 16:33:49 fib1618: which, in this case, would be an Elliott 5th wave (of "C")
2015-10-06 16:34:18 fib1618: this would then set off the cascading effect that comes once the bottom of support drops out
2015-10-06 16:34:42 fib1618: but let's move on and see if any of this has any real merit at this stage
2015-10-06 16:34:45 rite01: My NYA co 19 and 39 !ADRATNYC lines are just started to move up? What does that mean which EMA's are is most important?
2015-10-06 16:35:17 rite01: Hope u understand this questions
2015-10-06 16:35:26 fib1618: the 19 and 39 day EMA's are the 10% and 5% components of that particular MCO
2015-10-06 16:35:39 fib1618: if the components are above the zero line
2015-10-06 16:35:44 fib1618: those EMA's are rising
2015-10-06 16:35:55 fib1618: if the components are below their zero line
2015-10-06 16:36:02 fib1618: those EMA's are declining
2015-10-06 16:36:10 fib1618: this case then
2015-10-06 16:36:27 fib1618: with the components above their zero line
2015-10-06 16:36:57 fib1618: this would tell you that the AD line being measured is also rising fast enough, and far enough, to pull these same EMA' in that same direction
2015-10-06 16:37:19 fib1618: so to answer your question
2015-10-06 16:37:28 fib1618: yes...the EMA's are important
2015-10-06 16:37:38 fib1618: as they produce the MCO number
2015-10-06 16:37:42 fib1618: and with that
2015-10-06 16:38:00 fib1618: you will know how fast money is either moving in or moving out of that particular index
2015-10-06 16:38:35 fib1618: we have a small point change tonight on the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-06 16:38:39 rite01: My charts are working with 3 sets of 19/39EMA's and I'm will sometimes confuse which one you are talking about... Times like this
2015-10-06 16:39:05 fib1618: so let's again expect a dramatic move in the major market indices in the next two trading sessions
2015-10-06 16:39:14 rite01: I wish you could reach out and point out on the chart what your talking about.. oh well
2015-10-06 16:39:16 fib1618: I am, right now
2015-10-06 16:39:28 fib1618: on the NYSE Composite breadth data
2015-10-06 16:39:53 fib1618: well...
2015-10-06 16:40:00 fib1618: funny you should say this
2015-10-06 16:40:02 fib1618: because...
2015-10-06 16:40:13 rite01: Yes
2015-10-06 16:40:46 fib1618: I was thinking about trying to use a new app called
2015-10-06 16:41:14 fib1618: this would not only give you the ability to look at my computer screen
2015-10-06 16:41:34 fib1618: but it would allow me to do audio/video conferencing
2015-10-06 16:42:00 fib1618: so if you want to be a Guinea Pig, let me know
2015-10-06 16:42:06 rite01: I would be the first and second that motion that
2015-10-06 16:42:19 fib1618: OK...then I will be in touch
2015-10-06 16:42:30 fib1618: I want to play with it a bit more before giving it a test run
2015-10-06 16:42:31 rite01: meaning YES
2015-10-06 16:42:36 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-06 16:42:47 fib1618: I know it works on all OS's
2015-10-06 16:42:57 fib1618: and mobile technology
2015-10-06 16:43:06 rite01: Can't wait just think how much faster I will catch on now...
2015-10-06 16:43:24 fib1618: I will work with it and touch base on it again on Thursday
2015-10-06 16:43:38 fib1618: maybe we can do the occasional live show as it were
2015-10-06 16:44:02 fib1618: it would mean would have to see my ugly mug though [smile]
2015-10-06 16:44:07 rite01: sounds great!!! won't be able to sleep tonight :blush:
2015-10-06 16:44:14 fib1618: OK..back to work
2015-10-06 16:44:24 fib1618: oh...and there would be no transcripts
2015-10-06 16:44:38 fib1618: but there may be a remedy to that as well
2015-10-06 16:44:51 fib1618: we'll see...nothing yet to say that it's a done deal
2015-10-06 16:45:12 rite01: last thing want to do is slow anybody else down....
2015-10-06 16:45:19 fib1618: no problems
2015-10-06 16:45:21 rite01: I wouldn't want to do
2015-10-06 16:45:21 fib1618: remember
2015-10-06 16:45:43 fib1618: sometimes the questions you ask are those that others may be thinking about as well
2015-10-06 16:45:46 fib1618: no less
2015-10-06 16:45:56 fib1618: it's always good to have a reminder from time to time
2015-10-06 16:45:59 fib1618: it doesn't bother me
2015-10-06 16:46:05 fib1618: so don't let it bother you
2015-10-06 16:46:17 thespookyone: We have always been a team here, it isn't an issue [smile]
2015-10-06 16:46:34 fib1618: OK..looking at the daily NYA chart
2015-10-06 16:46:37 rite01: Thanks again LEW
2015-10-06 16:46:56 fib1618: and I just noticed that we have jumped across the 10,000 level twice now in 3 weeks
2015-10-06 16:47:06 thespookyone: No prob!
2015-10-06 16:47:18 fib1618: so that seems to be an important demarcation area between bull and bear right now
2015-10-06 16:47:39 fib1618: and so far
2015-10-06 16:47:47 fib1618: as long as this latest gap is not closed
2015-10-06 16:48:02 fib1618: we have an elaborate island reversal in effect right now on the NYA
2015-10-06 16:48:38 fib1618: of which both gaps seem to be at the mid point of an Elliott 3rd wave structure
2015-10-06 16:48:54 fib1618: so you can see how volatile we've been just based on this
2015-10-06 16:49:11 fib1618: OK...back to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-06 16:49:24 fib1618: and though we have moved to its highest point in quite sometime
2015-10-06 16:49:38 fib1618: it did so without the benefit of any textural support below it
2015-10-06 16:49:42 fib1618: because of this
2015-10-06 16:50:31 fib1618: this leaves open the possibility of a quick retracement back down to the MCO zero line just as quickly as it's gotten to this point in the pattern
2015-10-06 16:52:02 fib1618: so we have to be on guard for this near term
2015-10-06 16:52:06 fib1618: remember also
2015-10-06 16:52:14 fib1618: when the MCO gets above or below the +50 level
2015-10-06 16:52:23 fib1618: the further it travels above these levels
2015-10-06 16:52:40 fib1618: the harder it is to move into even deeper territory as well
2015-10-06 16:52:50 fib1618: but for now
2015-10-06 16:53:11 fib1618: the buyers have given us something to respect since we're back above the important +50 level
2015-10-06 16:53:34 fib1618: so, if anything, no new shorting should be opened for now
2015-10-06 16:53:49 fib1618: and tight stops are to be used on any open short positions
2015-10-06 16:53:58 fib1618: at this point though
2015-10-06 16:54:07 fib1618: there is not enough evidence to go long either
2015-10-06 16:54:19 fib1618: so better to sit on your hands and be patient
2015-10-06 16:54:32 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-06 16:54:43 fib1618: and here we did NOT move to a higher high on Monday
2015-10-06 16:54:57 fib1618: and peaked out with a reading of +34
2015-10-06 16:55:07 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-10-06 16:55:22 fib1618: and we see that 10% Trend reached its zero line on Monday
2015-10-06 16:55:27 fib1618: only to be turned away lower today
2015-10-06 16:55:33 fib1618: and the 5% is still below its zero line
2015-10-06 16:56:13 fib1618: which means that wasn't enough positive money flow to break the current pattern out of its correctional sequence
2015-10-06 16:56:26 fib1618: this, then, is a real problem for the market bulls
2015-10-06 16:56:41 fib1618: for unless the secondary stocks begin to show some upside leadership
2015-10-06 16:56:50 fib1618: once the majors run out of energy
2015-10-06 16:57:13 fib1618: market prices are likely to fill the vacuum created by this negative divergence very quickly
2015-10-06 16:57:26 fib1618: we also have to remember
2015-10-06 16:57:43 fib1618: that we only saw a "lessening of selling pressure" last week
2015-10-06 16:57:58 fib1618: but no bull divergence between the MCO and price is apparent
2015-10-06 16:58:37 fib1618: and, of course, this will keep the downtrend in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM least for now
2015-10-06 16:58:54 fib1618: moving to the NDX
2015-10-06 16:59:25 fib1618: and here we see a much better pattern of a thrust since Thursday
2015-10-06 16:59:42 fib1618: but here too we see that we are still below the highs seen last month
2015-10-06 17:00:11 fib1618: also a negative here
2015-10-06 17:00:34 fib1618: is that the trend of the NDX breadth MCSUM remains lower for now
2015-10-06 17:01:06 fib1618: in spite of the last couple of days of upside post expansion
2015-10-06 17:01:36 thespookyone: The zero texture in these indexes is really bothering me
2015-10-06 17:01:54 fib1618: yep
2015-10-06 17:02:00 fib1618: just noticed too
2015-10-06 17:02:18 fib1618: that the NYSE Composite traditional breadth MCSUM has now snapped back to its zero line
2015-10-06 17:02:56 fib1618: and it was this resistance two weeks ago that led to last Monday's breakdown in prices
2015-10-06 17:03:15 fib1618: so an important day or two coming up as far as rhythm is concerned
2015-10-06 17:03:49 fib1618: we see that the SPX breadth MCO moved to new highs on Monday
2015-10-06 17:04:12 fib1618: taking the SPX breadth MCSUM above its September highs
2015-10-06 17:04:36 fib1618: the SPX MCO components are also back above their zero line
2015-10-06 17:04:47 fib1618: let me check the SPX AD sec
2015-10-06 17:05:30 fib1618: and it has now moved back above all three of its EMA's
2015-10-06 17:05:56 fib1618: with both the 19 and 39 day EMA's still below the 200 day EMA
2015-10-06 17:06:04 fib1618: so...we're compressed right now
2015-10-06 17:06:31 fib1618: and rather vulnerable
2015-10-06 17:07:07 fib1618: we see that the OEX has been strong of late
2015-10-06 17:07:22 fib1618: moving to a reading of +107 on Monday
2015-10-06 17:07:44 fib1618: and this is providing a nice expansion of posts in the OEX breadth MCSUM to the upside
2015-10-06 17:07:58 fib1618: so the one thing we're learning here
2015-10-06 17:08:28 fib1618: is that the large cap stocks are seeing the most amount of buying/short covering at this time
2015-10-06 17:09:04 fib1618: and that would echo what the NYSE Open 10 was indicating a couple of weeks ago with its "oversold" readings below 1.30
2015-10-06 17:10:37 fib1618: while, in the meantime, the basic "oversold" readings in the NASDAQ Open 10's have provided a rebound that hasn't had the same amplitude in its momentum
2015-10-06 17:13:37 fib1618: the ongoing ability for the Dow breadth MCO to move below its zero line last week was, in retrospect, was the whisper that the market had a chance to find near term support
2015-10-06 17:13:43 fib1618: and did so intraday on Friday
2015-10-06 17:13:49 fib1618: that was some day, wasn't it?
2015-10-06 17:13:53 fib1618: whew!
2015-10-06 17:14:06 thespookyone: oh yea
2015-10-06 17:14:23 fib1618: so the Dow is showing a nice buy signal here
2015-10-06 17:14:42 fib1618: with the next challenge of attempting to move back above its zero line
2015-10-06 17:14:50 fib1618: on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2015-10-06 17:15:07 fib1618: interesting to note
2015-10-06 17:15:22 fib1618: that it broke above MCSUM resistance on Monday
2015-10-06 17:15:35 fib1618: as did several other breadth MCSUM's
2015-10-06 17:15:45 fib1618: so...maybe...we do have something here to work with for a bit on the long side
2015-10-06 17:16:07 fib1618: kinda having a conflict here actually
2015-10-06 17:16:32 fib1618: between the time forecast of a tradable bottom coming pretty much on target for prices
2015-10-06 17:16:46 fib1618: and the lack of underlying strength telling a slightly different story
2015-10-06 17:17:17 fib1618: then we get to the MID breadth MCO
2015-10-06 17:17:23 fib1618: and here too we are not at a higher high
2015-10-06 17:17:44 fib1618: and we're still below the declining trend in the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-10-06 17:17:44 unc1998: Does the price and breadth action since the August lows feel like a giant B wave developing to you?
2015-10-06 17:17:55 fib1618: like a triangle?
2015-10-06 17:18:40 unc1998: Where the August lows signified an A wave down and we are in a B wave up ever since with a C wave down to follow
2015-10-06 17:18:41 fib1618: or are you talking BIG picture?
2015-10-06 17:18:45 unc1998: big picture
2015-10-06 17:19:11 fib1618: which would include a move above the September highs for "B"?
2015-10-06 17:19:23 unc1998: possibly, yes
2015-10-06 17:19:28 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-06 17:19:45 fib1618: the one thing that we do know about Elliott B wave psychology
2015-10-06 17:19:52 fib1618: is that it "smells"...there's something not quite right going on
2015-10-06 17:20:08 fib1618: by that we mean that it's not all confirming
2015-10-06 17:20:20 fib1618: we have divergences between indices
2015-10-06 17:20:24 fib1618: like we do now!
2015-10-06 17:20:25 unc1998: yes with everything out of sync the past few weeks
2015-10-06 17:20:37 fib1618: so that makes it very possible
2015-10-06 17:20:48 fib1618: the other thing we know is that the A/D and U/D lines are not in bullish configurations
2015-10-06 17:20:57 fib1618: so this helps with the idea of a corrective sequence
2015-10-06 17:21:03 fib1618: or at the very least
2015-10-06 17:21:07 fib1618: a bear market rally
2015-10-06 17:21:23 fib1618: the one thing though that we have to remember
2015-10-06 17:21:35 fib1618: is that Elliott is good in providing a possible road map
2015-10-06 17:21:50 fib1618: but we shouldn't allow it to distort what we have to work with
2015-10-06 17:21:54 fib1618: with that said though
2015-10-06 17:22:12 fib1618: there's nothing real "kosher" about the last couple of days of trading
2015-10-06 17:22:44 fib1618: so until the rest of the market gets the picture in what the NYSE data is showing
2015-10-06 17:23:05 fib1618: or the market moves lower and fully resets
2015-10-06 17:23:14 fib1618: one would think that we're stuck moving sideways
2015-10-06 17:23:17 fib1618: which
2015-10-06 17:23:22 fib1618: with the MCO's above the zero line
2015-10-06 17:23:27 fib1618: and the MCSUM's below the zero line
2015-10-06 17:23:35 fib1618: we are, technically, corrective
2015-10-06 17:23:57 fib1618: so yes...a "B" wave is certainly probable under these conditions
2015-10-06 17:24:03 unc1998: thx
2015-10-06 17:24:04 fib1618: and if we stop at the highs of "A" (mid September)
2015-10-06 17:24:13 fib1618: and then go full reverse
2015-10-06 17:24:20 fib1618: this was a classic flat
2015-10-06 17:24:23 fib1618: and down we go
2015-10-06 17:24:33 fib1618: now...
2015-10-06 17:24:40 fib1618: gold has been doing well
2015-10-06 17:24:57 fib1618: which suggests that liquidity might be moving back into the system
2015-10-06 17:25:00 fib1618: or at the very least
2015-10-06 17:25:11 fib1618: the EXPECTATION of such an event is possible
2015-10-06 17:25:25 fib1618: but the mining stocks continue to make new cumulative lows
2015-10-06 17:25:44 fib1618: and that's not consistent to the metals trending to the upside
2015-10-06 17:25:51 fib1618: unless...the rules have changed
2015-10-06 17:25:59 fib1618: which I'm pretty sure they haven't
2015-10-06 17:26:01 fib1618: overall
2015-10-06 17:26:10 fib1618: unless the buyers keep the pressure on here
2015-10-06 17:26:40 fib1618: we're setting up for something that could be far more dangerous than many folks can or will realize
2015-10-06 17:27:11 fib1618: the short term danger here is that small traders begin to move into equities as not to miss out on another run
2015-10-06 17:27:24 fib1618: and once that load is exhausted
2015-10-06 17:27:26 fib1618: then what?
2015-10-06 17:27:43 fib1618: usually...the plug is pulled...and down we go
2015-10-06 17:27:58 fib1618: leaving Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley holding paper
2015-10-06 17:28:07 fib1618: again
2015-10-06 17:28:29 fib1618: one side of me says..."bulls eye on the target date for a bottom"
2015-10-06 17:28:52 fib1618: but my analytical side says..."be careful here"
2015-10-06 17:29:23 fib1618: spidey sense didn't go off on Thursday as it did the previous two
2015-10-06 17:29:45 fib1618: but it's back bothering me as I write this
2015-10-06 17:30:03 fib1618: looking at the data
2015-10-06 17:30:26 fib1618: if we don't see strong resumption of the Friday/Monday reversal by Thursday
2015-10-06 17:30:48 fib1618: we could see a hard shake out to the downside to get things finally sorted
2015-10-06 17:31:13 fib1618: and if the buyers don't step in to support such a decline
2015-10-06 17:31:30 fib1618: next week could won't be good
2015-10-06 17:31:35 fib1618: hmmm...
2015-10-06 17:31:38 fib1618: looking at the calendar
2015-10-06 17:31:47 fib1618: tomorrow is WWW
2015-10-06 17:32:00 fib1618: OPEX is on the 16th
2015-10-06 17:32:18 fib1618: and the bond market is closed on Monday
2015-10-06 17:32:39 fib1618: it's a real mess right now
2015-10-06 17:32:42 fib1618: but...
2015-10-06 17:32:51 fib1618: it's far better to follow what we see
2015-10-06 17:33:04 fib1618: than to short yourself out of a trade (or your money)
2015-10-06 17:33:17 fib1618: the BETS is at -35
2015-10-06 17:33:34 fib1618: so make sure protective bullish stops are in place
2015-10-06 17:34:01 fib1618: lower high as well in the SML breadth MCO
2015-10-06 17:34:30 fib1618: with the 5% component at its zero line
2015-10-06 17:34:47 fib1618: and pretty much the same thing with the TM breadth MCO and its 5% component
2015-10-06 17:34:48 fib1618: so...
2015-10-06 17:34:58 fib1618: it's been a nasty couple of days for the bears
2015-10-06 17:35:16 fib1618: as what was looking like a terrific day of trading on Friday morning
2015-10-06 17:35:26 fib1618: turned into something rather nasty
2015-10-06 17:35:36 fib1618: with good follow through noted on Monday
2015-10-06 17:35:42 fib1618: amazing to think
2015-10-06 17:36:14 fib1618: that the Dow has rallied some 800 points from Friday's intraday lows to today's intraday highs
2015-10-06 17:36:35 fib1618: eight HUNDRED points
2015-10-06 17:36:38 fib1618: wow!
2015-10-06 17:36:44 fib1618: let's see how volume is doing
2015-10-06 17:37:22 fib1618: and volume is in sync in both NYSE volume MCO's
2015-10-06 17:37:31 fib1618: and both had small point changes today
2015-10-06 17:38:05 fib1618: and with today's readings in the high 80's
2015-10-06 17:38:14 fib1618: the odds suggest that we're likely to move lower from here
2015-10-06 17:38:22 fib1618: maybe a 70% chance
2015-10-06 17:38:49 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also in sync with its breadth cousin
2015-10-06 17:38:59 fib1618: so the bulls want to be careful there unless they get more sponsorship
2015-10-06 17:39:36 fib1618: we see that the NDX volume MCSUM has now moved above its horizontal resistance area
2015-10-06 17:39:59 fib1618: so let's look for a zero line test there in the next couple of days
2015-10-06 17:40:10 fib1618: ah oh
2015-10-06 17:40:35 fib1618: non confirmation with the SPX volume MCO compared to its breadth counterpart
2015-10-06 17:40:56 fib1618: but we did move to a higher high in the SPX volume MCSUM
2015-10-06 17:41:21 fib1618: lower high as well in the OEX volume MCO
2015-10-06 17:41:28 fib1618: small point change as well
2015-10-06 17:41:45 fib1618: should be another volatile day or two coming up
2015-10-06 17:42:05 fib1618: (enjoy them for as long as you can)
2015-10-06 17:42:34 fib1618: lower high as well in the Dow volume MCO
2015-10-06 17:43:11 fib1618: and we'll watch to see what happens on Wednesday as the Dow volume MCSUM is now within spitting distance of its zero line
2015-10-06 17:43:24 fib1618: important juncture for the Dow MCSUM's here
2015-10-06 17:44:00 fib1618: with a double failure at the zero line for breadth, and one for volume, not a good omen over the intermediate term
2015-10-06 17:44:21 fib1618: lower low as well in the MID volume MCO
2015-10-06 17:44:30 fib1618: but the SML volume MCO moved to a new high!
2015-10-06 17:44:48 fib1618: and a small point change as well
2015-10-06 17:45:16 fib1618: and a lower high in the TM volume MCO to round out the charts
2015-10-06 17:45:25 fib1618: so...
2015-10-06 17:45:33 fib1618: still a lot to sort out here
2015-10-06 17:45:54 fib1618: with the odds of a downside retracement pretty high for the next couple of days
2015-10-06 17:46:01 fib1618: but with the new highs in many of the MCO's
2015-10-06 17:46:13 fib1618: we could get one more pop to test the September highs
2015-10-06 17:46:20 fib1618: and THAT will be the rally to watch
2015-10-06 17:46:59 fib1618: CVI's all climatic on Monday
2015-10-06 17:47:30 fib1618: STVO's are "overbought"
2015-10-06 17:47:54 fib1618: VTO's are now neutral
2015-10-06 17:48:12 fib1618: so here the OBV's are suggesting a pullback near term
2015-10-06 17:48:27 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .82
2015-10-06 17:48:36 fib1618: Open 10 at .83
2015-10-06 17:48:49 fib1618: knocking on the door step of "overbought" now
2015-10-06 17:49:20 fib1618: you can see on the chart what happened previously to prices at this current Open 10 level
2015-10-06 17:49:47 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .82
2015-10-06 17:49:57 fib1618: Open 10 at .88
2015-10-06 17:50:01 fib1618: we'll call that neutral
2015-10-06 17:50:13 fib1618: TM TRIN at .92
2015-10-06 17:50:22 fib1618: Open 10 at .89
2015-10-06 17:50:40 fib1618: so....we are no longer "oversold" on the Open 10's
2015-10-06 17:50:59 fib1618: and this will now allow prices to move lower without any kind of underlying support
2015-10-06 17:51:14 fib1618: at face value
2015-10-06 17:51:27 fib1618: many of the MCO's look pretty good right now
2015-10-06 17:51:36 fib1618: but the MCSUM's remain negative
2015-10-06 17:51:38 fib1618: and because of this
2015-10-06 17:51:50 fib1618: the overall tone of prices is that of corrective
2015-10-06 17:52:03 fib1618: this doesn't mean though that we can't still rally from here
2015-10-06 17:52:24 fib1618: but if the question is asked if the downtrend has been completed
2015-10-06 17:52:26 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-06 17:52:31 fib1618: the answer is a solid "no"
2015-10-06 17:53:05 fib1618: and we'll just have to see what we're given to work with over the next couple of days
2015-10-06 17:53:34 fib1618: which will then provide our blueprint going into this month's OPEX
2015-10-06 17:53:42 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-06 17:54:07 unc1998: not here, thanks
2015-10-06 17:54:50 fib1618: tricky market environment...
2015-10-06 17:55:37 fib1618: futures are lower
2015-10-06 17:56:12 fib1618: today's erratic price action between the Dow and the NASDAQ will need to taken care of
2015-10-06 17:56:29 fib1618: OK..if there's nothing else
2015-10-06 17:56:40 fib1618: let's go and watch the wild card game
2015-10-06 17:56:49 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-10-06 17:56:54 fib1618: and we'll do this again on Thursday
2015-10-06 17:56:56 fib1618: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2020 Technical Watch