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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-06 16:00:22 fib1618: good day
2015-10-06 16:00:26 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-06 16:00:46 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-10-06 16:02:17 fib1618: doing fine
2015-10-06 16:02:26 fib1618: quite a couple of days, huh?
2015-10-06 16:02:58 thespookyone: Oh yea, saw that trin Monday during the day at .35
2015-10-06 16:03:31 fib1618: it was also fairly low on Friday as well
2015-10-06 16:03:40 thespookyone: yep
2015-10-06 16:03:52 rite01: What does .35 mean trin?
2015-10-06 16:03:58 fib1618: short covering by and large
2015-10-06 16:04:14 rite01: thanks
2015-10-06 16:04:33 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-10-06 16:05:06 rite01: No but a comment
2015-10-06 16:05:53 rite01: Very pleased what I've learned at TT.  For first time been able to detect and safely navigate through last several months bottoms and tops. something I never would have dreamed of just a few months ago  Thank you
2015-10-06 16:05:56 fib1618: sure...I'll check the cumulative charts in the meantime
2015-10-06 16:06:13 fib1618: you mean TW [smile]
2015-10-06 16:06:19 thespookyone: GREAT!
2015-10-06 16:06:40 rite01: Yes TW ... hardly visit TT anymore
2015-10-06 16:06:42 fib1618: I guess that means that I should raise my prices, right? [smile]
2015-10-06 16:07:07 fib1618: here's the thing
2015-10-06 16:07:14 fib1618: the people who do subscribe here
2015-10-06 16:07:24 fib1618: no longer post in TT anymore
2015-10-06 16:07:34 fib1618: I can't say whether they visit though
2015-10-06 16:07:42 fib1618: but once you get the hang of this
2015-10-06 16:08:17 fib1618: everything else can be problematic to listen to
2015-10-06 16:08:21 thespookyone: I came here a long time ago as a pretty fair trader, and Dave has taught me a ton-it grows on you
2015-10-06 16:08:52 fib1618: well...thank you both for the kind words
2015-10-06 16:09:10 rite01: Thanks Lew and you were right about  it does take a lot of work
2015-10-06 16:09:20 fib1618: you have to relearn stuff
2015-10-06 16:09:29 rite01: Yep!
2015-10-06 16:09:41 fib1618: but once you gain confidence, it hopefully opens new doors
2015-10-06 16:09:48 thespookyone: You're welcome, and the nuance of it takes work and time-but WELL worth it
2015-10-06 16:09:54 fib1618: one sec...let me check the cums
2015-10-06 16:10:42 fib1618: -35 on the BETS
2015-10-06 16:11:03 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-06 16:11:06 fib1618: on the surface
2015-10-06 16:11:35 fib1618: it looks like our idea of an Elliott flat "C" in progress has come to fruition
2015-10-06 16:11:46 fib1618: so let's get SC up and get started
2015-10-06 16:11:47 unc1998: nice call
2015-10-06 16:11:51 fib1618: nah
2015-10-06 16:11:56 fib1618: it was kind of lucky
2015-10-06 16:12:12 fib1618: actually...it was an option given last week because of the way the market was holding at the September lows
2015-10-06 16:12:24 fib1618: and the divergence in the NYSE breadth MCO's
2015-10-06 16:12:38 fib1618: now we have to see if the others have fallen in line or not
2015-10-06 16:12:42 fib1618: otherwise
2015-10-06 16:12:47 rite01: Got love those divergences
2015-10-06 16:12:50 unc1998: getting close to a Zweig breadth thrust, but not quite there
2015-10-06 16:12:51 fib1618: being that the rally has been short and sharp
2015-10-06 16:13:01 rite01: You noticed, huh?
2015-10-06 16:13:05 fib1618: it's personality is that of a bear market rally
2015-10-06 16:13:19 fib1618: yea...I noticed the Zweig EMA yesterday
2015-10-06 16:13:24 fib1618: let me check today's reading
2015-10-06 16:13:58 thespookyone: And, we near the 50 on the SPX, and are close to completing a flat on the Dow, a good place to be very cautious in trading...
2015-10-06 16:14:03 fib1618: day 1 is on the 29th
2015-10-06 16:14:23 fib1618: so the 10th day would be the 13th
2015-10-06 16:14:43 fib1618: today's reading is 53%
2015-10-06 16:15:08 fib1618: one thing we can say though
2015-10-06 16:15:19 fib1618: is that this has been an outstanding traders market
2015-10-06 16:15:32 rite01: Would it be better for Zweig to signal around the August lows?
2015-10-06 16:15:33 fib1618: if you still have the stomach for it [smile]
2015-10-06 16:15:58 unc1998: I had a great couple of days [smile]
2015-10-06 16:16:29 fib1618: the rule for the Zweig thrust is that the indicator must move from below 40% to 61.5% in 10 trading days
2015-10-06 16:16:36 fib1618: so we didn't get it in August
2015-10-06 16:16:52 rite01: I meant low in the Index prices
2015-10-06 16:17:28 fib1618: prices are not as important as the breadth that generates the sequence/trigger of the event
2015-10-06 16:17:43 fib1618: prices fall in line later
2015-10-06 16:17:52 fib1618: in other words
2015-10-06 16:18:09 fib1618: you can have a higher low in prices with a breadth thrust confirmation coming after
2015-10-06 16:18:15 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-06 16:18:20 fib1618: like we saw in August
2015-10-06 16:18:36 fib1618: which was the end of an Elliott 3rd wave of one degree or the other
2015-10-06 16:18:53 fib1618: the market was only able to bounce to the half way point from that extreme in the oscillators
2015-10-06 16:19:01 fib1618: which then caused the retest of the price lows
2015-10-06 16:19:10 fib1618: now that the retest is out of the way
2015-10-06 16:19:15 fib1618: and putting Elliott aside
2015-10-06 16:19:30 fib1618: that would be the "nominal" low in prices
2015-10-06 16:19:43 fib1618: as opposed to the "orthodox" low in August
2015-10-06 16:19:51 rite01: Ok just learned something else..  FYI: I'm going to have to leave early tonight but will stay logged on....
2015-10-06 16:20:20 fib1618: the orthodox showing the greatest degree of "oversold" readings during that particular price sequence
2015-10-06 16:20:28 fib1618: no problemo
2015-10-06 16:20:38 fib1618: I'll just keep typing away until I nod off [smile]
2015-10-06 16:20:44 fib1618: speaking of which
2015-10-06 16:20:51 fib1618: let's get going before I do [smile]
2015-10-06 16:21:20 fib1618: after providing us with a small point change on Thursday
2015-10-06 16:21:35 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has moved sharply higher since that time
2015-10-06 16:22:00 fib1618: and we have now moved to new 9 month highs on the MCO as a result of this
2015-10-06 16:22:01 fib1618: now...
2015-10-06 16:22:18 fib1618: if the NYCO AD line were in a bullish configuration
2015-10-06 16:22:35 fib1618: this would be your standard, everyday, breadth thrust
2015-10-06 16:22:50 fib1618: with a classic divergent low last week
2015-10-06 16:22:56 fib1618: and the higher high as a result
2015-10-06 16:22:57 fib1618: now...
2015-10-06 16:23:02 fib1618: as we also know
2015-10-06 16:23:34 fib1618: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM suggested to us that we should have a tradable bottom around the beginning of October
2015-10-06 16:23:48 fib1618: and the last couple of days would pretty much suffice with this forecast
2015-10-06 16:23:51 fib1618: however
2015-10-06 16:23:57 fib1618: as we talked about on Thursday
2015-10-06 16:24:52 fib1618: we still have many index charts that are not moving in what we would call a "proper sequence" in order to believe that this forecasted low is indeed one that would change the direction of prices from down to up
2015-10-06 16:25:06 fib1618: so we have a bit of a problem here at this juncture
2015-10-06 16:25:17 fib1618: though things "feel" pretty good for the buyers
2015-10-06 16:25:38 fib1618: they still may be missing the necessary components in order to allow prices to move back above their EMA's
2015-10-06 16:26:14 fib1618: putting ruler to monitor
2015-10-06 16:26:34 fib1618: and we see that we have a upside breakout in the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM on Monday
2015-10-06 16:26:49 fib1618: and good follow through today on this break above resistance
2015-10-06 16:27:11 fib1618: this, in and of itself, is enough to where we should fully respect this for what it does imply
2015-10-06 16:27:40 fib1618: especially if the 5% Trend of the CO MCO is able to find snapback support at its zero line today
2015-10-06 16:27:52 fib1618: and move sharply higher on Wednesday
2015-10-06 16:28:05 fib1618: for now..so far
2015-10-06 16:28:24 fib1618: this move to new highs in the CO MCO
2015-10-06 16:28:39 fib1618: tells us that we are in an Elliott 3rd wave to the upside of one degree of the other
2015-10-06 16:28:52 fib1618: but it doesn't fully tell us if this is a corrective or impulsive pattern
2015-10-06 16:29:11 fib1618: let me check the CO AD line...one sec
2015-10-06 16:29:47 fib1618: and it's still in a strong bearish configuration with its EMA's
2015-10-06 16:29:53 fib1618: to give you visual
2015-10-06 16:30:03 fib1618: the cumulative line has moved above the 19 and 39 day EMA's
2015-10-06 16:30:09 fib1618: which both are still moving lower
2015-10-06 16:30:18 fib1618: well...
2015-10-06 16:30:20 fib1618: actually
2015-10-06 16:30:31 fib1618: when we look at the 10% component
2015-10-06 16:30:34 fib1618: it's rising
2015-10-06 16:30:44 fib1618: and the 5% is just now turning the corner
2015-10-06 16:31:00 fib1618: but the 19 is leading the 39 to the downside
2015-10-06 16:31:12 fib1618: and that is the most important information we have to work with here
2015-10-06 16:32:05 fib1618: and keeps us from falling into any kind of trap that Friday's reversal, and follow though on Monday, is still within the context of a technical bear TREND in money flow
2015-10-06 16:32:28 fib1618: now...the problem with bear market rally's is that they tend to fizzle out very quickly
2015-10-06 16:32:43 fib1618: as they generate a high amount of emotion
2015-10-06 16:32:51 fib1618: so that those who are short cover quickly
2015-10-06 16:33:08 fib1618: and those who try to get cute just KNOW that a bottom in prices are behind us
2015-10-06 16:33:18 fib1618: once that fuel is all used up
2015-10-06 16:33:29 fib1618: then we start to decay rapidly
2015-10-06 16:33:35 fib1618: and aside from a final thrust
2015-10-06 16:33:49 fib1618: which, in this case, would be an Elliott 5th wave (of "C")
2015-10-06 16:34:18 fib1618: this would then set off the cascading effect that comes once the bottom of support drops out
2015-10-06 16:34:42 fib1618: but let's move on and see if any of this has any real merit at this stage
2015-10-06 16:34:45 rite01: My NYA co 19 and 39 !ADRATNYC lines are just started to move up? What does that mean which EMA's are is most important?
2015-10-06 16:35:17 rite01: Hope u understand this questions
2015-10-06 16:35:26 fib1618: the 19 and 39 day EMA's are the 10% and 5% components of that particular MCO
2015-10-06 16:35:39 fib1618: if the components are above the zero line
2015-10-06 16:35:44 fib1618: those EMA's are rising
2015-10-06 16:35:55 fib1618: if the components are below their zero line
2015-10-06 16:36:02 fib1618: those EMA's are declining
2015-10-06 16:36:10 fib1618: so...in this case then
2015-10-06 16:36:27 fib1618: with the components above their zero line
2015-10-06 16:36:57 fib1618: this would tell you that the AD line being measured is also rising fast enough, and far enough, to pull these same EMA' in that same direction
2015-10-06 16:37:19 fib1618: so to answer your question
2015-10-06 16:37:28 fib1618: yes...the EMA's are important
2015-10-06 16:37:38 fib1618: as they produce the MCO number
2015-10-06 16:37:42 fib1618: and with that
2015-10-06 16:38:00 fib1618: you will know how fast money is either moving in or moving out of that particular index
2015-10-06 16:38:35 fib1618: we have a small point change tonight on the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-06 16:38:39 rite01: My charts are working with 3 sets of 19/39EMA's and I'm will sometimes confuse which one you are talking about... Times like this
2015-10-06 16:39:05 fib1618: so let's again expect a dramatic move in the major market indices in the next two trading sessions
2015-10-06 16:39:14 rite01: I wish you could reach out and point out on the chart what your talking about.. oh well
2015-10-06 16:39:16 fib1618: I am, right now
2015-10-06 16:39:28 fib1618: on the NYSE Composite breadth data
2015-10-06 16:39:53 fib1618: well...
2015-10-06 16:40:00 fib1618: funny you should say this
2015-10-06 16:40:02 fib1618: because...
2015-10-06 16:40:13 rite01: Yes
2015-10-06 16:40:46 fib1618: I was thinking about trying to use a new app called join.me
2015-10-06 16:41:14 fib1618: this would not only give you the ability to look at my computer screen
2015-10-06 16:41:34 fib1618: but it would allow me to do audio/video conferencing
2015-10-06 16:42:00 fib1618: so if you want to be a Guinea Pig, let me know
2015-10-06 16:42:06 rite01: I would be the first and second that motion that
2015-10-06 16:42:19 fib1618: OK...then I will be in touch
2015-10-06 16:42:30 fib1618: I want to play with it a bit more before giving it a test run
2015-10-06 16:42:31 rite01: meaning YES
2015-10-06 16:42:36 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-06 16:42:47 fib1618: I know it works on all OS's
2015-10-06 16:42:57 fib1618: and mobile technology
2015-10-06 16:43:06 rite01: Can't wait just think how much faster I will catch on now...
2015-10-06 16:43:24 fib1618: I will work with it and touch base on it again on Thursday
2015-10-06 16:43:38 fib1618: maybe we can do the occasional live show as it were
2015-10-06 16:44:02 fib1618: it would mean would have to see my ugly mug though [smile]
2015-10-06 16:44:07 rite01: sounds great!!! won't be able to sleep tonight :blush:
2015-10-06 16:44:14 fib1618: OK..back to work
2015-10-06 16:44:24 fib1618: oh...and there would be no transcripts
2015-10-06 16:44:38 fib1618: but there may be a remedy to that as well
2015-10-06 16:44:51 fib1618: we'll see...nothing yet to say that it's a done deal
2015-10-06 16:45:12 rite01: last thing want to do is slow anybody else down....
2015-10-06 16:45:19 fib1618: no problems
2015-10-06 16:45:21 rite01: I wouldn't want to do
2015-10-06 16:45:21 fib1618: remember
2015-10-06 16:45:43 fib1618: sometimes the questions you ask are those that others may be thinking about as well
2015-10-06 16:45:46 fib1618: no less
2015-10-06 16:45:56 fib1618: it's always good to have a reminder from time to time
2015-10-06 16:45:59 fib1618: it doesn't bother me
2015-10-06 16:46:05 fib1618: so don't let it bother you
2015-10-06 16:46:17 thespookyone: We have always been a team here, it isn't an issue [smile]
2015-10-06 16:46:34 fib1618: OK..looking at the daily NYA chart
2015-10-06 16:46:37 rite01: Thanks again LEW
2015-10-06 16:46:56 fib1618: and I just noticed that we have jumped across the 10,000 level twice now in 3 weeks
2015-10-06 16:47:06 thespookyone: No prob!
2015-10-06 16:47:18 fib1618: so that seems to be an important demarcation area between bull and bear right now
2015-10-06 16:47:39 fib1618: and so far
2015-10-06 16:47:47 fib1618: as long as this latest gap is not closed
2015-10-06 16:48:02 fib1618: we have an elaborate island reversal in effect right now on the NYA
2015-10-06 16:48:38 fib1618: of which both gaps seem to be at the mid point of an Elliott 3rd wave structure
2015-10-06 16:48:54 fib1618: so you can see how volatile we've been just based on this
2015-10-06 16:49:11 fib1618: OK...back to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-06 16:49:24 fib1618: and though we have moved to its highest point in quite sometime
2015-10-06 16:49:38 fib1618: it did so without the benefit of any textural support below it
2015-10-06 16:49:42 fib1618: because of this
2015-10-06 16:50:31 fib1618: this leaves open the possibility of a quick retracement back down to the MCO zero line just as quickly as it's gotten to this point in the pattern
2015-10-06 16:52:02 fib1618: so we have to be on guard for this near term
2015-10-06 16:52:06 fib1618: remember also
2015-10-06 16:52:14 fib1618: when the MCO gets above or below the +50 level
2015-10-06 16:52:23 fib1618: the further it travels above these levels
2015-10-06 16:52:40 fib1618: the harder it is to move into even deeper territory as well
2015-10-06 16:52:50 fib1618: but for now
2015-10-06 16:53:11 fib1618: the buyers have given us something to respect since we're back above the important +50 level
2015-10-06 16:53:34 fib1618: so, if anything, no new shorting should be opened for now
2015-10-06 16:53:49 fib1618: and tight stops are to be used on any open short positions
2015-10-06 16:53:58 fib1618: at this point though
2015-10-06 16:54:07 fib1618: there is not enough evidence to go long either
2015-10-06 16:54:19 fib1618: so better to sit on your hands and be patient
2015-10-06 16:54:32 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-06 16:54:43 fib1618: and here we did NOT move to a higher high on Monday
2015-10-06 16:54:57 fib1618: and peaked out with a reading of +34
2015-10-06 16:55:07 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-10-06 16:55:22 fib1618: and we see that 10% Trend reached its zero line on Monday
2015-10-06 16:55:27 fib1618: only to be turned away lower today
2015-10-06 16:55:33 fib1618: and the 5% is still below its zero line
2015-10-06 16:56:13 fib1618: which means that wasn't enough positive money flow to break the current pattern out of its correctional sequence
2015-10-06 16:56:26 fib1618: this, then, is a real problem for the market bulls
2015-10-06 16:56:41 fib1618: for unless the secondary stocks begin to show some upside leadership
2015-10-06 16:56:50 fib1618: once the majors run out of energy
2015-10-06 16:57:13 fib1618: market prices are likely to fill the vacuum created by this negative divergence very quickly
2015-10-06 16:57:26 fib1618: we also have to remember
2015-10-06 16:57:43 fib1618: that we only saw a "lessening of selling pressure" last week
2015-10-06 16:57:58 fib1618: but no bull divergence between the MCO and price is apparent
2015-10-06 16:58:37 fib1618: and, of course, this will keep the downtrend in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM intact...at least for now
2015-10-06 16:58:54 fib1618: moving to the NDX
2015-10-06 16:59:25 fib1618: and here we see a much better pattern of a thrust since Thursday
2015-10-06 16:59:42 fib1618: but here too we see that we are still below the highs seen last month
2015-10-06 17:00:11 fib1618: also a negative here
2015-10-06 17:00:34 fib1618: is that the trend of the NDX breadth MCSUM remains lower for now
2015-10-06 17:01:06 fib1618: in spite of the last couple of days of upside post expansion
2015-10-06 17:01:36 thespookyone: The zero texture in these indexes is really bothering me
2015-10-06 17:01:54 fib1618: yep
2015-10-06 17:02:00 fib1618: just noticed too
2015-10-06 17:02:18 fib1618: that the NYSE Composite traditional breadth MCSUM has now snapped back to its zero line
2015-10-06 17:02:56 fib1618: and it was this resistance two weeks ago that led to last Monday's breakdown in prices
2015-10-06 17:03:15 fib1618: so an important day or two coming up as far as rhythm is concerned
2015-10-06 17:03:49 fib1618: we see that the SPX breadth MCO moved to new highs on Monday
2015-10-06 17:04:12 fib1618: taking the SPX breadth MCSUM above its September highs
2015-10-06 17:04:36 fib1618: the SPX MCO components are also back above their zero line
2015-10-06 17:04:47 fib1618: let me check the SPX AD line...one sec
2015-10-06 17:05:30 fib1618: and it has now moved back above all three of its EMA's
2015-10-06 17:05:56 fib1618: with both the 19 and 39 day EMA's still below the 200 day EMA
2015-10-06 17:06:04 fib1618: so...we're compressed right now
2015-10-06 17:06:31 fib1618: and rather vulnerable
2015-10-06 17:07:07 fib1618: we see that the OEX has been strong of late
2015-10-06 17:07:22 fib1618: moving to a reading of +107 on Monday
2015-10-06 17:07:44 fib1618: and this is providing a nice expansion of posts in the OEX breadth MCSUM to the upside
2015-10-06 17:07:58 fib1618: so the one thing we're learning here
2015-10-06 17:08:28 fib1618: is that the large cap stocks are seeing the most amount of buying/short covering at this time
2015-10-06 17:09:04 fib1618: and that would echo what the NYSE Open 10 was indicating a couple of weeks ago with its "oversold" readings below 1.30
2015-10-06 17:10:37 fib1618: while, in the meantime, the basic "oversold" readings in the NASDAQ Open 10's have provided a rebound that hasn't had the same amplitude in its momentum
2015-10-06 17:13:37 fib1618: the ongoing ability for the Dow breadth MCO to move below its zero line last week was, in retrospect, was the whisper that the market had a chance to find near term support
2015-10-06 17:13:43 fib1618: and did so intraday on Friday
2015-10-06 17:13:49 fib1618: that was some day, wasn't it?
2015-10-06 17:13:53 fib1618: whew!
2015-10-06 17:14:06 thespookyone: oh yea
2015-10-06 17:14:23 fib1618: so the Dow is showing a nice buy signal here
2015-10-06 17:14:42 fib1618: with the next challenge of attempting to move back above its zero line
2015-10-06 17:14:50 fib1618: on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2015-10-06 17:15:07 fib1618: interesting to note
2015-10-06 17:15:22 fib1618: that it broke above MCSUM resistance on Monday
2015-10-06 17:15:35 fib1618: as did several other breadth MCSUM's
2015-10-06 17:15:45 fib1618: so...maybe...we do have something here to work with for a bit on the long side
2015-10-06 17:16:07 fib1618: kinda having a conflict here actually
2015-10-06 17:16:32 fib1618: between the time forecast of a tradable bottom coming pretty much on target for prices
2015-10-06 17:16:46 fib1618: and the lack of underlying strength telling a slightly different story
2015-10-06 17:17:17 fib1618: then we get to the MID breadth MCO
2015-10-06 17:17:23 fib1618: and here too we are not at a higher high
2015-10-06 17:17:44 fib1618: and we're still below the declining trend in the MID breadth MCSUM
2015-10-06 17:17:44 unc1998: Does the price and breadth action since the August lows feel like a giant B wave developing to you?
2015-10-06 17:17:55 fib1618: like a triangle?
2015-10-06 17:18:40 unc1998: Where the August lows signified an A wave down and we are in a B wave up ever since with a C wave down to follow
2015-10-06 17:18:41 fib1618: or are you talking BIG picture?
2015-10-06 17:18:45 unc1998: big picture
2015-10-06 17:19:11 fib1618: which would include a move above the September highs for "B"?
2015-10-06 17:19:23 unc1998: possibly, yes
2015-10-06 17:19:28 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-06 17:19:45 fib1618: the one thing that we do know about Elliott B wave psychology
2015-10-06 17:19:52 fib1618: is that it "smells"...there's something not quite right going on
2015-10-06 17:20:08 fib1618: by that we mean that it's not all confirming
2015-10-06 17:20:20 fib1618: we have divergences between indices
2015-10-06 17:20:24 fib1618: like we do now!
2015-10-06 17:20:25 unc1998: yes with everything out of sync the past few weeks
2015-10-06 17:20:37 fib1618: so that makes it very possible
2015-10-06 17:20:48 fib1618: the other thing we know is that the A/D and U/D lines are not in bullish configurations
2015-10-06 17:20:57 fib1618: so this helps with the idea of a corrective sequence
2015-10-06 17:21:03 fib1618: or at the very least
2015-10-06 17:21:07 fib1618: a bear market rally
2015-10-06 17:21:23 fib1618: the one thing though that we have to remember
2015-10-06 17:21:35 fib1618: is that Elliott is good in providing a possible road map
2015-10-06 17:21:50 fib1618: but we shouldn't allow it to distort what we have to work with
2015-10-06 17:21:54 fib1618: with that said though
2015-10-06 17:22:12 fib1618: there's nothing real "kosher" about the last couple of days of trading
2015-10-06 17:22:44 fib1618: so until the rest of the market gets the picture in what the NYSE data is showing
2015-10-06 17:23:05 fib1618: or the market moves lower and fully resets
2015-10-06 17:23:14 fib1618: one would think that we're stuck moving sideways
2015-10-06 17:23:17 fib1618: which
2015-10-06 17:23:22 fib1618: with the MCO's above the zero line
2015-10-06 17:23:27 fib1618: and the MCSUM's below the zero line
2015-10-06 17:23:35 fib1618: we are, technically, corrective
2015-10-06 17:23:57 fib1618: so yes...a "B" wave is certainly probable under these conditions
2015-10-06 17:24:03 unc1998: thx
2015-10-06 17:24:04 fib1618: and if we stop at the highs of "A" (mid September)
2015-10-06 17:24:13 fib1618: and then go full reverse
2015-10-06 17:24:20 fib1618: this was a classic flat
2015-10-06 17:24:23 fib1618: and down we go
2015-10-06 17:24:33 fib1618: now...
2015-10-06 17:24:40 fib1618: gold has been doing well
2015-10-06 17:24:57 fib1618: which suggests that liquidity might be moving back into the system
2015-10-06 17:25:00 fib1618: or at the very least
2015-10-06 17:25:11 fib1618: the EXPECTATION of such an event is possible
2015-10-06 17:25:25 fib1618: but the mining stocks continue to make new cumulative lows
2015-10-06 17:25:44 fib1618: and that's not consistent to the metals trending to the upside
2015-10-06 17:25:51 fib1618: unless...the rules have changed
2015-10-06 17:25:59 fib1618: which I'm pretty sure they haven't
2015-10-06 17:26:01 fib1618: overall
2015-10-06 17:26:10 fib1618: unless the buyers keep the pressure on here
2015-10-06 17:26:40 fib1618: we're setting up for something that could be far more dangerous than many folks can or will realize
2015-10-06 17:27:11 fib1618: the short term danger here is that small traders begin to move into equities as not to miss out on another run
2015-10-06 17:27:24 fib1618: and once that load is exhausted
2015-10-06 17:27:26 fib1618: then what?
2015-10-06 17:27:43 fib1618: usually...the plug is pulled...and down we go
2015-10-06 17:27:58 fib1618: leaving Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley holding paper
2015-10-06 17:28:07 fib1618: again
2015-10-06 17:28:29 fib1618: one side of me says..."bulls eye on the target date for a bottom"
2015-10-06 17:28:52 fib1618: but my analytical side says..."be careful here"
2015-10-06 17:29:23 fib1618: now...my spidey sense didn't go off on Thursday as it did the previous two
2015-10-06 17:29:45 fib1618: but it's back bothering me as I write this
2015-10-06 17:30:03 fib1618: looking at the data
2015-10-06 17:30:26 fib1618: if we don't see strong resumption of the Friday/Monday reversal by Thursday
2015-10-06 17:30:48 fib1618: we could see a hard shake out to the downside to get things finally sorted
2015-10-06 17:31:13 fib1618: and if the buyers don't step in to support such a decline
2015-10-06 17:31:30 fib1618: next week could be...well...it won't be good
2015-10-06 17:31:35 fib1618: hmmm...
2015-10-06 17:31:38 fib1618: looking at the calendar
2015-10-06 17:31:47 fib1618: tomorrow is WWW
2015-10-06 17:32:00 fib1618: OPEX is on the 16th
2015-10-06 17:32:18 fib1618: and the bond market is closed on Monday
2015-10-06 17:32:39 fib1618: it's a real mess right now
2015-10-06 17:32:42 fib1618: but...
2015-10-06 17:32:51 fib1618: it's far better to follow what we see
2015-10-06 17:33:04 fib1618: than to short yourself out of a trade (or your money)
2015-10-06 17:33:17 fib1618: the BETS is at -35
2015-10-06 17:33:34 fib1618: so make sure protective bullish stops are in place
2015-10-06 17:34:01 fib1618: lower high as well in the SML breadth MCO
2015-10-06 17:34:30 fib1618: with the 5% component at its zero line
2015-10-06 17:34:47 fib1618: and pretty much the same thing with the TM breadth MCO and its 5% component
2015-10-06 17:34:48 fib1618: so...
2015-10-06 17:34:58 fib1618: it's been a nasty couple of days for the bears
2015-10-06 17:35:16 fib1618: as what was looking like a terrific day of trading on Friday morning
2015-10-06 17:35:26 fib1618: turned into something rather nasty
2015-10-06 17:35:36 fib1618: with good follow through noted on Monday
2015-10-06 17:35:42 fib1618: amazing to think
2015-10-06 17:36:14 fib1618: that the Dow has rallied some 800 points from Friday's intraday lows to today's intraday highs
2015-10-06 17:36:35 fib1618: eight HUNDRED points
2015-10-06 17:36:38 fib1618: wow!
2015-10-06 17:36:44 fib1618: let's see how volume is doing
2015-10-06 17:37:22 fib1618: and volume is in sync in both NYSE volume MCO's
2015-10-06 17:37:31 fib1618: and both had small point changes today
2015-10-06 17:38:05 fib1618: and with today's readings in the high 80's
2015-10-06 17:38:14 fib1618: the odds suggest that we're likely to move lower from here
2015-10-06 17:38:22 fib1618: maybe a 70% chance
2015-10-06 17:38:49 fib1618: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also in sync with its breadth cousin
2015-10-06 17:38:59 fib1618: so the bulls want to be careful there unless they get more sponsorship
2015-10-06 17:39:36 fib1618: we see that the NDX volume MCSUM has now moved above its horizontal resistance area
2015-10-06 17:39:59 fib1618: so let's look for a zero line test there in the next couple of days
2015-10-06 17:40:10 fib1618: ah oh
2015-10-06 17:40:35 fib1618: non confirmation with the SPX volume MCO compared to its breadth counterpart
2015-10-06 17:40:56 fib1618: but we did move to a higher high in the SPX volume MCSUM
2015-10-06 17:41:21 fib1618: lower high as well in the OEX volume MCO
2015-10-06 17:41:28 fib1618: small point change as well
2015-10-06 17:41:45 fib1618: should be another volatile day or two coming up
2015-10-06 17:42:05 fib1618: (enjoy them for as long as you can)
2015-10-06 17:42:34 fib1618: lower high as well in the Dow volume MCO
2015-10-06 17:43:11 fib1618: and we'll watch to see what happens on Wednesday as the Dow volume MCSUM is now within spitting distance of its zero line
2015-10-06 17:43:24 fib1618: important juncture for the Dow MCSUM's here
2015-10-06 17:44:00 fib1618: with a double failure at the zero line for breadth, and one for volume, not a good omen over the intermediate term
2015-10-06 17:44:21 fib1618: lower low as well in the MID volume MCO
2015-10-06 17:44:30 fib1618: but the SML volume MCO moved to a new high!
2015-10-06 17:44:48 fib1618: and a small point change as well
2015-10-06 17:45:16 fib1618: and a lower high in the TM volume MCO to round out the charts
2015-10-06 17:45:25 fib1618: so...
2015-10-06 17:45:33 fib1618: still a lot to sort out here
2015-10-06 17:45:54 fib1618: with the odds of a downside retracement pretty high for the next couple of days
2015-10-06 17:46:01 fib1618: but with the new highs in many of the MCO's
2015-10-06 17:46:13 fib1618: we could get one more pop to test the September highs
2015-10-06 17:46:20 fib1618: and THAT will be the rally to watch
2015-10-06 17:46:59 fib1618: CVI's all climatic on Monday
2015-10-06 17:47:30 fib1618: STVO's are "overbought"
2015-10-06 17:47:54 fib1618: VTO's are now neutral
2015-10-06 17:48:12 fib1618: so here the OBV's are suggesting a pullback near term
2015-10-06 17:48:27 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .82
2015-10-06 17:48:36 fib1618: Open 10 at .83
2015-10-06 17:48:49 fib1618: knocking on the door step of "overbought" now
2015-10-06 17:49:20 fib1618: you can see on the chart what happened previously to prices at this current Open 10 level
2015-10-06 17:49:47 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .82
2015-10-06 17:49:57 fib1618: Open 10 at .88
2015-10-06 17:50:01 fib1618: we'll call that neutral
2015-10-06 17:50:13 fib1618: TM TRIN at .92
2015-10-06 17:50:22 fib1618: Open 10 at .89
2015-10-06 17:50:40 fib1618: so....we are no longer "oversold" on the Open 10's
2015-10-06 17:50:59 fib1618: and this will now allow prices to move lower without any kind of underlying support
2015-10-06 17:51:14 fib1618: at face value
2015-10-06 17:51:27 fib1618: many of the MCO's look pretty good right now
2015-10-06 17:51:36 fib1618: but the MCSUM's remain negative
2015-10-06 17:51:38 fib1618: and because of this
2015-10-06 17:51:50 fib1618: the overall tone of prices is that of corrective
2015-10-06 17:52:03 fib1618: this doesn't mean though that we can't still rally from here
2015-10-06 17:52:24 fib1618: but if the question is asked if the downtrend has been completed
2015-10-06 17:52:26 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-06 17:52:31 fib1618: the answer is a solid "no"
2015-10-06 17:53:05 fib1618: and we'll just have to see what we're given to work with over the next couple of days
2015-10-06 17:53:34 fib1618: which will then provide our blueprint going into this month's OPEX
2015-10-06 17:53:42 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-06 17:54:07 unc1998: not here, thanks
2015-10-06 17:54:50 fib1618: tricky market environment...
2015-10-06 17:55:37 fib1618: futures are lower
2015-10-06 17:56:12 fib1618: today's erratic price action between the Dow and the NASDAQ will need to taken care of
2015-10-06 17:56:29 fib1618: OK..if there's nothing else
2015-10-06 17:56:40 fib1618: let's go and watch the wild card game
2015-10-06 17:56:49 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-10-06 17:56:54 fib1618: and we'll do this again on Thursday
2015-10-06 17:56:56 fib1618: good night


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