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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-10-06 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-10-06 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-10-06 16:00:21 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Hi Dave
2011-10-06 16:01:07 [Message] input -> Chat: looking forward to your lecture.
2011-10-06 16:01:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't lecture
2011-10-06 16:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I share
2011-10-06 16:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-10-06 16:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have had a pretty hard time the last couple of days
2011-10-06 16:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if only there was fresh funds moving in...tsk tsk
2011-10-06 16:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-10-06 16:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...before we do
2011-10-06 16:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum11/elliottspx100611.png
2011-10-06 16:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: updated count idea
2011-10-06 16:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this count, if valid, puts us for a bottom sometime the week of 10/17
2011-10-06 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a week later than ideal
2011-10-06 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but within the window given by the MCSUM back in July
2011-10-06 16:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to finish off the thought
2011-10-06 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a couple of down days - Friday and Monday (and maybe into Tuesday)
2011-10-06 16:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rally to finish (B) the rest of the week
2011-10-06 16:05:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the final (C) down possibly into OPEX
2011-10-06 16:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in a perfect Elliott world, of course
2011-10-06 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the count has been pretty much on the mark for the last 2 months
2011-10-06 16:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's due to be blown out lol
2011-10-06 16:06:24 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Targets?
2011-10-06 16:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for C?
2011-10-06 16:06:45 [Message] EricD -> Chat: and B
2011-10-06 16:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top for B should be somewhere around 1175
2011-10-06 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bottom for C should be somewhere around...let me check
2011-10-06 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if (C) = (A)...1057
2011-10-06 16:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be a bulls eye for the Fibonacci numbers we were playing with in early September
2011-10-06 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all of this is very fluid for now
2011-10-06 16:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and should only be used as a guideline until...it stops working
2011-10-06 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...let's see if the internals compliment the count
2011-10-06 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after providing a potential for bull divergence on Tuesday
2011-10-06 16:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has once again rocketed higher
2011-10-06 16:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with taking out the previous spike highs today
2011-10-06 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now sets a more supportive floor below us
2011-10-06 16:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where back in August this kind of divergence told us that the summer of 2010 lows were likely to hold
2011-10-06 16:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this particular divergence now tells us that any further downside is going to be more limited than these same summer lows from last year
2011-10-06 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2011-10-06 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA price pattern perceptively broke above its declining tops line today
2011-10-06 16:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, we will need for this MCO to move above its mid September highs for there to be a breakout of any merit
2011-10-06 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then...we continue only to build the necessary texture that's needed for a tradable bottom
2011-10-06 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, the bulls can move above the levels just mentioned tomorrow
2011-10-06 16:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then bull divergence would be in
2011-10-06 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the likelihood of another test of Monday's lows would become a low possibility
2011-10-06 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and
2011-10-06 16:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expected price low within the window between late September and early November would likely be in
2011-10-06 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I do want to stress here
2011-10-06 16:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the general market environment right now
2011-10-06 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not expect this to happen at this point in time
2011-10-06 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it did, it would set up a most dangerous vacuum that will need to be filled before we'll likely to be able to trend to the upside
2011-10-06 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the low TRIN numbers of the last 3 days are NOT indicative of a bottom
2011-10-06 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are indicative of a market this is trying to bottom
2011-10-06 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what some refer to as "hammering" out a bottom
2011-10-06 16:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2011-10-06 16:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have that hammer stick on Tuesday that needs our attention as well
2011-10-06 16:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the CO data
2011-10-06 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components that make up this MCO
2011-10-06 16:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the 10% moved above its zero line today
2011-10-06 16:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% component still remains below its zero line
2011-10-06 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this again suggests to us that all we're seeing here is a correction
2011-10-06 16:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until we get better sync with the components and the MCO
2011-10-06 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further rallies here will likely be doomed to failure
2011-10-06 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is why we continued to play the market as "hit and run"
2011-10-06 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as mentioned on Tuesday
2011-10-06 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there still wasn't enough evidence of a down trend
2011-10-06 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even though the SPX lost 90 points in 3 trading days
2011-10-06 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem being
2011-10-06 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there is a ton of nervous traders out there
2011-10-06 16:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-10-06 16:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I posted an article on this from Reuters last night on the forums and the Facebook page
2011-10-06 16:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2011-10-06 16:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw that some analyst has put a value on Facebook yesterday
2011-10-06 16:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone wish to guess?
2011-10-06 16:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would you believe
2011-10-06 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 77 billion dollars?
2011-10-06 16:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just amazing
2011-10-06 16:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-06 16:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the analysis becomes simple
2011-10-06 16:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the market to rally further
2011-10-06 16:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see new highs in this MCSUM for it to be possible
2011-10-06 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new highs in this case
2011-10-06 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be above the accelerated declining tops line seen on the chart
2011-10-06 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do move above -500 level
2011-10-06 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then clear the way for a move to the early September highs
2011-10-06 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-10-06 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking back to Tuesday
2011-10-06 16:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA bounced right off last years support area of 6400 before the last couple of days of action
2011-10-06 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take that
2011-10-06 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the divergent structure in place
2011-10-06 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have to be quite flexible here that the last couple days might indeed be our tradable low
2011-10-06 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  it really becomes up to the players here
2011-10-06 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking around
2011-10-06 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just doesn't seem the best bet at this time
2011-10-06 16:24:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bear market rallies are provided to fool the majority into thinking otherwise
2011-10-06 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have pretty much the same situation with the composite NYSE breadth MCO and its components
2011-10-06 16:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-06 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the pattern just doesn't look like it has any strength for any follow through here
2011-10-06 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does have the look and feel of a fishhook
2011-10-06 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the good news there
2011-10-06 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that since we already had a ledge last week
2011-10-06 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we don't usually see either one of these patterns twice in the same sequence
2011-10-06 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this does turn out to be a hook
2011-10-06 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the next turn higher in the MCSUM will be our buy signal
2011-10-06 16:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this happens to take place in the next two weeks
2011-10-06 16:27:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with other methodologies giving the all clear
2011-10-06 16:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN it will time to start accumulating stocks
2011-10-06 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2011-10-06 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the bulls to say otherwise
2011-10-06 16:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM will need to move above this same ledge formation to increase the odds of success
2011-10-06 16:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...there's still some work to do regardless on whether you believe we've bottomed or still need a little more time to do so
2011-10-06 16:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2011-10-06 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing showing any kind of conviction of a low at this time
2011-10-06 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and anyone who believes so is more in the camp of "hoping" for one than anything else
2011-10-06 16:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they could be right
2011-10-06 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the evidence isn't there to back it up
2011-10-06 16:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like it wasn't there for the last 8 weeks
2011-10-06 16:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know how that went
2011-10-06 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved above last weeks highs
2011-10-06 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2011-10-06 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have both still below their zero line
2011-10-06 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it's likely we've had a short covering rally
2011-10-06 16:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, as we all know (or have been told) tend to be sharp and short
2011-10-06 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-10-06 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we basically have the same scenario as we do with the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-06 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the prior ledge will need to be violated before we can call the pattern in the clear
2011-10-06 16:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2011-10-06 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's break out in price above the accelerated declining tops line is not likely to hold
2011-10-06 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and usually moves back below this trendline with a lot of volatility
2011-10-06 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX price pattern closed at its declining tops line today
2011-10-06 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX breadth MCO has NOT moved above last weeks highs
2011-10-06 16:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls will need to belly up right here and right now or there's likely to be a rather nasty reversal once the last of the short covering is finished
2011-10-06 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now the interesting thing here is that the NDX components are not only above their zero line
2011-10-06 16:35:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are in a cross over buy signal
2011-10-06 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-10-06 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we find that it did find support at the -250 level as we talked about on Tuesday as being possible
2011-10-06 16:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the job here for the bulls is really two fold
2011-10-06 16:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one is that they need to generate enough energy to move the NDX breadth MCO to higher highs
2011-10-06 16:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and ideally above the double top highs of the +100 level
2011-10-06 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 2...
2011-10-06 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are able to do this
2011-10-06 16:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then allow the NDX breadth MCSUM to break above zero line resistance
2011-10-06 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor there
2011-10-06 16:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we noted previously
2011-10-06 16:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM has now broken above its accelerated declining tops line
2011-10-06 16:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this recent pullback provided our technical snapback to or toward this same line
2011-10-06 16:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears really have to be on guard here
2011-10-06 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to build constructive evidence of a developing uptrend on an intermediate term basis
2011-10-06 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that, with a little help, could get up and started if the money gates open up again in this time period
2011-10-06 16:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind folks
2011-10-06 16:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the odds of our bottoming in the next month or so remain very high
2011-10-06 16:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have tons of evidence of this as far as money flow indicators are concerned
2011-10-06 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what the bears should be most worried about if anything else
2011-10-06 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that they had the backdrop of several well known countries of the world about to default on their debt
2011-10-06 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL the markets remain bouyant
2011-10-06 16:42:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at this week
2011-10-06 16:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there wasn't historic highs of liquidity in the system as it is right now
2011-10-06 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this whole week would had turned into a waterfall decline given the technical patterns in which we broke down out of
2011-10-06 16:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bear flags
2011-10-06 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sideways consolidations
2011-10-06 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some triangles to boot
2011-10-06 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while this is all going on
2011-10-06 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sentiment is not only in the toilet
2011-10-06 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the public is now actually scared to invest in the stock market
2011-10-06 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much volatility
2011-10-06 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much angst
2011-10-06 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so sentiment wise
2011-10-06 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the world's economic system is being called into question
2011-10-06 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this tend to create very important bottoms
2011-10-06 16:45:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will this time be different?
2011-10-06 16:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the internals
2011-10-06 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest that we continue to build the foundation so that a rising price structure can be built
2011-10-06 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take a absolute catastrophe that is unknown to change this
2011-10-06 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...even the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history...a tsunami that wiped out 60 miles of coastline...and a nuclear meltdown of two generators couldn't muster anything but a burp in the pattern
2011-10-06 16:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is Greece so important?
2011-10-06 16:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Italy?
2011-10-06 16:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem there is
2011-10-06 16:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't know where all the tentacles reach
2011-10-06 16:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally
2011-10-06 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least with the money flow charts we have here in the US
2011-10-06 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this seems to be more of a intermediate term distraction if anything else
2011-10-06 16:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll see how it goes
2011-10-06 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO has also moved above last weeks highs
2011-10-06 16:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the components are confirming the move here with a cross over buy
2011-10-06 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-10-06 16:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're back up against the -250 level
2011-10-06 16:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what appears to be a nice shelf pattern
2011-10-06 16:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one in which we're likely to break out of to the upside
2011-10-06 16:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: likely...but not confirmed
2011-10-06 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2011-10-06 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still getting mixed signals here
2011-10-06 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the cream stocks are getting more attention than the broader NYSE
2011-10-06 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the other problem here
2011-10-06 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we moved to new lows on this MCO last Monday
2011-10-06 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless we get some sort of snapback test of some kind
2011-10-06 16:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if it's not a divergent one
2011-10-06 16:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern is not likely to sustain its current direction much longer
2011-10-06 16:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor here
2011-10-06 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the declining tops line on the SPX breadth MCSUM comes in at around the +100 level
2011-10-06 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we're able to break out above this line of negative influence
2011-10-06 16:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1225 level is going to continue to cap any further advance that may come about from here
2011-10-06 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO and its components have a buy signal here
2011-10-06 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the OEX breadth MCSUM remains below both near term overhead resistance and its zero line
2011-10-06 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its declining tops line also comes in at around the +100 level
2011-10-06 16:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...it's really is getting exciting here
2011-10-06 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the upside potential from any low continues to be something to look forward to
2011-10-06 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with maybe a challenge of the all time highs
2011-10-06 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're getting a little ahead of ourselves
2011-10-06 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cross over buy on the Dow breadth MCO
2011-10-06 16:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCSUM is at higher highs here
2011-10-06 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern itself closed right at its declining tops line
2011-10-06 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the other price charts we've covered so far
2011-10-06 16:58:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least the Dow has breadth leading to the upside
2011-10-06 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where the obvious question becomes
2011-10-06 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do we give a higher weighting to an index of 30 stocks that basically represent the economy of the US or not?
2011-10-06 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: historically, the answer is no
2011-10-06 16:59:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's usual and customary to see this happen during topping phases
2011-10-06 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be different this time
2011-10-06 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds suggest otherwise
2011-10-06 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now
2011-10-06 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we move to the MID data
2011-10-06 17:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we have higher highs in the MID breadth MCO
2011-10-06 17:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a cross over buy
2011-10-06 17:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM moving to higher highs today
2011-10-06 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...bigger picture wise
2011-10-06 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the start of just about every substantive uptrend we've ever seen over the years has the broader market leading the advance
2011-10-06 17:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we know that there's plenty of liquidity out there
2011-10-06 17:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise the mid caps would not be breaking out here
2011-10-06 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or more directly
2011-10-06 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they wouldn't be seeing any money flows
2011-10-06 17:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are
2011-10-06 17:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll add this to our evidence that we are, in fact, constructing a tradable low
2011-10-06 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML
2011-10-06 17:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have more evidence
2011-10-06 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the SML breadth MCO, its components, and its MCSUM are all in bullish configurations now
2011-10-06 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with respect to the MID and SML
2011-10-06 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bull divergence is now in place
2011-10-06 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both price patterns finding support within the mid range of last summers correctional period
2011-10-06 17:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as the MCSUM's had forecasted would be the likely outcome back in July
2011-10-06 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we are to have one more decline here
2011-10-06 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the theory is that the MID and SML price patterns will more than likely also diverge against the large caps
2011-10-06 17:06:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that happens
2011-10-06 17:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would pretty much put a fork in for a bottom (it's done)
2011-10-06 17:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the total market
2011-10-06 17:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we still have a correctional pattern in force
2011-10-06 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCO above its zero line
2011-10-06 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the components remain below theirs
2011-10-06 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-10-06 17:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current structural rotation going on now
2011-10-06 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we seem to be within 2-3 weeks now of a major bottom
2011-10-06 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that would be needed
2011-10-06 17:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally, of course
2011-10-06 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for one more flush lower
2011-10-06 17:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to reach some external price objectives
2011-10-06 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to provide divergent MCO structures at the same time
2011-10-06 17:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should about be all that will be needed for a new leg to the upside
2011-10-06 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments??
2011-10-06 17:11:29 [Message] input -> Chat: if the lows are in how would you change your wave count?
2011-10-06 17:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know as yet
2011-10-06 17:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the wave count is secondary
2011-10-06 17:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...it's just an exercise to provide a label to the pattern structure
2011-10-06 17:12:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no texture on this pop-I don't favor it for the bottom-just saying...
2011-10-06 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like everything technical
2011-10-06 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price patterns must compliment how money flow is moving in order for it to have any kind of merit
2011-10-06 17:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: say away!
2011-10-06 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we're actually have a breadth thrust here
2011-10-06 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't need any more texture...we've had 8 weeks of it
2011-10-06 17:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here in all of this is that
2011-10-06 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just about every single advancing price structure in history have all started with short covering
2011-10-06 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's what and when fresh money enters the market that makes the difference
2011-10-06 17:15:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and what of the indexes with no MCO divergence-good structure?
2011-10-06 17:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good question
2011-10-06 17:15:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why it's unlikely to happen near term
2011-10-06 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-10-06 17:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have jabbed about
2011-10-06 17:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are no more borders when it comes to trading stocks
2011-10-06 17:16:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and do good rallies get lead out of the bottom by the Dow?
2011-10-06 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and trading stocks are more a commodity than anything else these days
2011-10-06 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe just like with the volume MCO's where the sub set indices may not need that divergence where we have it with the broader based NYA
2011-10-06 17:17:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not in my experience...no
2011-10-06 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2011-10-06 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm giving both sides of the coin based solely on what you and I are looking at
2011-10-06 17:17:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I just have such a hard time "looking for different this time"
2011-10-06 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me ask you this
2011-10-06 17:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it comes to the question of "different"
2011-10-06 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have interest rates been at 0% for any length of time in the history of man?
2011-10-06 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least over a 2 year period?
2011-10-06 17:18:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: no, but I've seen huge liquidity before
2011-10-06 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has there been outside influences on domestic markets as it has been for the last 10 years?
2011-10-06 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can we call both of these factors "different" ?
2011-10-06 17:19:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-10-06 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-10-06 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the one thing I want to do here is to be as flexible as I can be in my analysis
2011-10-06 17:20:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely, and I agree
2011-10-06 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it likely we've bottomed based on tried and true technical analysis?
2011-10-06 17:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not
2011-10-06 17:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as a technician
2011-10-06 17:20:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm always looking at both sides of a coin
2011-10-06 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF
2011-10-06 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there something on the other side to look at
2011-10-06 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-10-06 17:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have bullish divergent structures in place on the NYA, MID, and SML
2011-10-06 17:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have inconsistencies that need to be taken care of
2011-10-06 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2011-10-06 17:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't said bottom
2011-10-06 17:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I alluded to a potential for a bottom
2011-10-06 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the ingredients are building for one
2011-10-06 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if anything
2011-10-06 17:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one in here should be all out bearish with the current backdrop of news
2011-10-06 17:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT would be dangerous
2011-10-06 17:22:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the sync of the market seems off here-exactly-and certainly, one way or another, that is overcome before we trend, no?
2011-10-06 17:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not likely
2011-10-06 17:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not disagreeing
2011-10-06 17:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've said as much
2011-10-06 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (right?)
2011-10-06 17:23:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes!
2011-10-06 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-10-06 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's context here
2011-10-06 17:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have to prove that they're ready to move
2011-10-06 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but internally...we don't have everything lined up as yet
2011-10-06 17:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're closer than we were last week
2011-10-06 17:24:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and much closer to what many thought was a sure bet of seeing lower price lows below the 2009 period
2011-10-06 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was NEVER suggested in here
2011-10-06 17:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2011-10-06 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still a bit on the sloppy side
2011-10-06 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's part of building a bottom
2011-10-06 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we're on the same page
2011-10-06 17:26:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: overall, I love the bullish set up, IT wise-it's playing out in spades
2011-10-06 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2011-10-06 17:26:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: we are my friend
2011-10-06 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're getting what we were looking for to happen back in July
2011-10-06 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the blueprint has been altered but never changed
2011-10-06 17:26:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: in spades
2011-10-06 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-10-06 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume McClellan's
2011-10-06 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO is showing good strength here to compliment its breadth cousin
2011-10-06 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we have the 5% component still slightly below its zero line
2011-10-06 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually when this happens
2011-10-06 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we generally see the 5% pullback from the zero line
2011-10-06 17:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-10-06 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% snaps back to its zero line
2011-10-06 17:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this finally sets up our keystone strength from where prices can build a rising structure
2011-10-06 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that would be the near term expectation for tomorrow
2011-10-06 17:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while I'm thinking of it
2011-10-06 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would like to caution everyone
2011-10-06 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that whatever short covering that might occur after the jobs data in the morning
2011-10-06 17:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've see all this week
2011-10-06 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might only last for 15 or 20 minutes before the futures go back to where they started and sag
2011-10-06 17:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, breadth plurality is better than 3:1 to the good in the last hour tomorrow
2011-10-06 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any left over short positions should probably be closed and to stand aside to see how things settle
2011-10-06 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some of this has to do with seasonality factors
2011-10-06 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being its the beginning of the month
2011-10-06 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the beginning of a 4th quarter
2011-10-06 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this may only have been position trading for the institutions
2011-10-06 17:32:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I keep feeling the jobs number will pop to your 1175, top your B, and get sold off-does that work for you at all?
2011-10-06 17:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll know better in the morning
2011-10-06 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: works for me
2011-10-06 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2011-10-06 17:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the structure should be A-B-C
2011-10-06 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so how about we top today
2011-10-06 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down for a couple of days to around...oh...1125
2011-10-06 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then C up next week to finish (B)?
2011-10-06 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then (C) down into OPEX week
2011-10-06 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all of those spec put buyers being already blown out?
2011-10-06 17:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2011-10-06 17:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I must stress
2011-10-06 17:34:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this Elliott stuff can be a big distraction in all of this
2011-10-06 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with all the volatility here
2011-10-06 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's let the market work its magic
2011-10-06 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I'm right - great
2011-10-06 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm terrific
2011-10-06 17:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if I'm wrong
2011-10-06 17:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or more candidly
2011-10-06 17:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has other ideas...
2011-10-06 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm only married to direction
2011-10-06 17:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm only married to whether or not the market has enough fuel to move in one direction or the other
2011-10-06 17:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all I care about
2011-10-06 17:36:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed, just seems like some of the other ABC's weren't so either. it's funny, I have some individual stocks printing ABC's others not, as well
2011-10-06 17:36:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott is just a way to put a label on the action
2011-10-06 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2011-10-06 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we see it in the internals
2011-10-06 17:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID and SML have structure and texture
2011-10-06 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they have for all purposes noted - have bottomed
2011-10-06 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're done
2011-10-06 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're waiting for now is for the rest of the boys and girls to line up better
2011-10-06 17:37:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, even an equal C would probably see 1200 plus-which is so far hard for me to see
2011-10-06 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that we can actually trend
2011-10-06 17:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't worry about it
2011-10-06 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trade what you see
2011-10-06 17:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run
2011-10-06 17:37:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: all hit and run for me-I'm actually long here, LOL
2011-10-06 17:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Elliott pattern will appear magically as we move along
2011-10-06 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit and run and you're long?
2011-10-06 17:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmmm
2011-10-06 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-06 17:38:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-10-06 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch your stops
2011-10-06 17:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make them solid
2011-10-06 17:38:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ready to eject, though
2011-10-06 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I closed today
2011-10-06 17:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: took my 70 points
2011-10-06 17:38:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice, just as well, probably
2011-10-06 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no interest in what happens tomorrow morning
2011-10-06 17:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be candid
2011-10-06 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the last 8 months the market has been all over the place on jobs day
2011-10-06 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've commented on this
2011-10-06 17:39:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I just have individual stocks, and they looked unfinished
2011-10-06 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...far be it from me to comment on that
2011-10-06 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you already have one island
2011-10-06 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's two?
2011-10-06 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-06 17:40:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I don't think the number even has to be good to get the initial pop-maybe just not horrible
2011-10-06 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the volume McClellan's
2011-10-06 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the number, whatever it is, is only used as an excuse to merchandise
2011-10-06 17:41:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-10-06 17:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it means nothing
2011-10-06 17:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we know
2011-10-06 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is technically
2011-10-06 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that we've put in a near term top
2011-10-06 17:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless new, fresh, money comes in right here and right now
2011-10-06 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're going to pull back
2011-10-06 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe into a divergent low
2011-10-06 17:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or maybe a soft low to rally on
2011-10-06 17:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN a divergent low
2011-10-06 17:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many cross currents here
2011-10-06 17:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what else we have and maybe that will guide us better
2011-10-06 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite volume MCO and its components are also showing good strength here
2011-10-06 17:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so between these two indicators (the CO and the composite)
2011-10-06 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside here is becoming more and more limited
2011-10-06 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe that's not a good descriptor
2011-10-06 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more and more shallower
2011-10-06 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not likely to go to 970 for example
2011-10-06 17:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that maybe 1050 or so is all is needed
2011-10-06 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO is also at higher highs
2011-10-06 17:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is more of an "oversold" reflex than anything else
2011-10-06 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we need some texture
2011-10-06 17:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the pattern is too erratic to hold
2011-10-06 17:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least a snapback to the zero line is needed
2011-10-06 17:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like their breadth counterparts
2011-10-06 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCO has yet to move to higher highs
2011-10-06 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the good news is that the NASDAQ composite of stocks are showing good strength now
2011-10-06 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that liquidity is plentiful enough to spread out
2011-10-06 17:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the top 100 stocks are being slighted currently
2011-10-06 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in favor of these same broader basket of stocks
2011-10-06 17:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will need to be corrected somehow before we're likely to move with any structure to the upside
2011-10-06 17:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same overhead resistance on the SPX volume MCSUM as we had on the breadth MCSUM
2011-10-06 17:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX and Dow volume MCSUM's are now leading breadth to the upside
2011-10-06 17:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be part of institutions having to "must be invested" and are moving into the tried and true stars
2011-10-06 17:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID and SML volume MCO's look to be confirming their breadth cousins
2011-10-06 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MID and SML volume MCSUM's are still lagging behind
2011-10-06 17:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...a bit of a wash out that isn't broadly based, and actually toward the higher weighted stocks that make up the Dow, OEX, SPX and NDX, would then give us what were probably looking for
2011-10-06 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM turned higher off of its -500 level
2011-10-06 17:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a nice bullish development for the intermediate term
2011-10-06 17:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-10-06 17:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to construct our expected bottom
2011-10-06 17:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-10-06 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have pretty good dynamics with the broader market
2011-10-06 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still have other areas that still have some timing problems
2011-10-06 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...it would appear that getting closer to our lows
2011-10-06 17:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just need a little more time to pass so that the market can work its magic
2011-10-06 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2011-10-06 17:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now overall climactic
2011-10-06 17:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price top in the next two trading sessions
2011-10-06 17:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are still a bit on the "oversold" side
2011-10-06 17:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are neutral to firm
2011-10-06 17:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much to work with there
2011-10-06 17:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh man
2011-10-06 17:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-10-06 17:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .35
2011-10-06 17:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2011-10-06 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the highest level we've seen since the beginning of the year
2011-10-06 17:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a fade
2011-10-06 17:55:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...not a fade
2011-10-06 17:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we've talked about before how the market has topped when we've been at the .90 area over the last year
2011-10-06 17:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...a pullback is probably safer than any further buying
2011-10-06 17:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-10-06 17:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .40
2011-10-06 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .41
2011-10-06 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2011-10-06 17:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting close now to "overbought"
2011-10-06 17:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dangerous territory there
2011-10-06 17:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .43
2011-10-06 17:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2011-10-06 17:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, one things for sure
2011-10-06 17:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the indicators are showing synchronicity
2011-10-06 17:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although the market may look like its lost its head
2011-10-06 17:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it seems to be knowing what its doing
2011-10-06 17:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with these Open 10's as high as they are
2011-10-06 17:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would still favor some back and forth and then a final purge
2011-10-06 17:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would set the table
2011-10-06 17:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole thing looks unfinished
2011-10-06 18:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these Open 10's are suggesting that there are just too many closet bulls believing that we've bottomed here
2011-10-06 18:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they need to be spanked
2011-10-06 18:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-10-06 18:00:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: read my mind, LOL
2011-10-06 18:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the psychology here hasn't changed
2011-10-06 18:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were in a bear market on Monday
2011-10-06 18:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that bear market turned abruptly and left all those put buyers (and aggressive shorts) in the dust
2011-10-06 18:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these same put buyers have been trying to make up for those loses by being call buyers
2011-10-06 18:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they have seen this happen before and they will not be fooled again
2011-10-06 18:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until...
2011-10-06 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trap door opens once more
2011-10-06 18:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should pretty much rid the market of speculators
2011-10-06 18:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-10-06 18:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prediction
2011-10-06 18:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ready
2011-10-06 18:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I love this man to death
2011-10-06 18:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but just like the 8/8 lows when he came on TV and claimed that we were in a 3rd wave down bear market
2011-10-06 18:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect to see Bob Prechter make another visit at the lows
2011-10-06 18:04:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: like clockwork
2011-10-06 18:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when he does
2011-10-06 18:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT will be our lows
2011-10-06 18:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best way to do that
2011-10-06 18:04:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great call!
2011-10-06 18:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be after the market has rallied 100 SPX points in 3 days
2011-10-06 18:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then collapses
2011-10-06 18:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the air will be thick with doubt and fear
2011-10-06 18:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll need that to set the lows
2011-10-06 18:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like August...remember?
2011-10-06 18:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that...
2011-10-06 18:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take my leave
2011-10-06 18:05:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much
2011-10-06 18:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-10-06 18:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if something should happen contrary to what we've talked about tonight
2011-10-06 18:06:16 [Message] EricD -> Chat: great thanks
2011-10-06 18:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I may do a special chat
2011-10-06 18:06:21 [Message] watcher -> Chat: thanks
2011-10-06 18:06:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so watch the forum for any announcement
2011-10-06 18:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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