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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-10-05 16:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-05 16:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-10-05 16:01:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thanks
2010-10-05 16:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a day...huh?
2010-10-05 16:02:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-10-05 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why
2010-10-05 16:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you never - EVER - short against the intermediate trend of breadth
2010-10-05 16:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-10-05 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who didn't see it
2010-10-05 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I made a quick post today on a simple pattern structure
2010-10-05 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the link
2010-10-05 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=4916647&trail=50#1
2010-10-05 16:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: disclosure - I have a position in the stock from 3.25 and added today
2010-10-05 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a nice symmetrical triangle breakout
2010-10-05 16:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note the time stamp..an hour before the close
2010-10-05 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's take a look see at what we have to work with now
2010-10-05 16:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO gave us an obligatory bounce off its zero line today
2010-10-05 16:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moved to its highest point in about 2 weeks
2010-10-05 16:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the move today has now pushed the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to within 80 data points of the +500 level
2010-10-05 16:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can make the assumption that we still have some unfinished work yet to do in this area as the +500 level will probably act as a magnet
2010-10-05 16:07:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that this is Tuesday
2010-10-05 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the jobs report is Friday
2010-10-05 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising to see us in and around the +500 level as soon as the end of the week
2010-10-05 16:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA price pattern itself showed new upside vigor today
2010-10-05 16:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2010-10-05 16:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: took out its May high point
2010-10-05 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in July
2010-10-05 16:08:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had discussed that we had a minimal target for price of the May highs
2010-10-05 16:08:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a maximum price target of the April highs based on the thrust seen in the MCO
2010-10-05 16:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would now appear that the April highs will now be challenged before we see any chance of a multi week correction
2010-10-05 16:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-10-05 16:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if by some amazing chance that the MCO can take out its September highs in this sequence
2010-10-05 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then have enough energy to break above the April price highs in what would a continuation of the longer term uptrend from the March 09 lows
2010-10-05 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also give us new upside price objectives if these same September MCO highs are taken out
2010-10-05 16:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...today seemed to be a statement day for the bulls
2010-10-05 16:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the amount of bearishness I noticed on a couple of market message boards last night
2010-10-05 16:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was all that was needed for the wall of worry to continue
2010-10-05 16:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and something we talked about 3 weeks ago as something we should watch for given that the month of September didn't quite turn out to be the bearish month everyone was expecting
2010-10-05 16:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I personally couldn't believe what was being said on such a choppy day
2010-10-05 16:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if there was desperation
2010-10-05 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway..let's see how the rest of the market fared
2010-10-05 16:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved higher today
2010-10-05 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the common only data
2010-10-05 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCO did NOT move to new highs
2010-10-05 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that the common stocks are either taking new leadership
2010-10-05 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OR
2010-10-05 16:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the common stocks are being bought as a last ditch effort to capitalize on the September advance
2010-10-05 16:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with quarterly earnings just around the corner
2010-10-05 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be an allocation play just as much as a peak in emotion
2010-10-05 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components, however, we see that the 10% and 5% Trends remains very strong here
2010-10-05 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this might open the door to the idea that although the interest rate sensitive issues were still being bought
2010-10-05 16:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the common stocks were just that much better
2010-10-05 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2010-10-05 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important that the composite MCO join the common only MCO to higher highs or we could still be in for a top
2010-10-05 16:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe wave 5?
2010-10-05 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: blowoff?
2010-10-05 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the sideways consolidation being our 4th wave flat?
2010-10-05 16:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we still need not to jump the gun here
2010-10-05 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we really didn't get the internal breakdown that would be fully expected for a wave 4
2010-10-05 16:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it could be wave 2 as part of an extension
2010-10-05 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that is the case
2010-10-05 16:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the MCSUM will break above its gap resistance zone
2010-10-05 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will also break above its declining tops line
2010-10-05 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're getting into nitty gritty time for the bulls
2010-10-05 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many fully expecting that October is going to make up for September on the downside
2010-10-05 16:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be that this will be enough of a sentiment platform to keep prices moving higher
2010-10-05 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and by the way
2010-10-05 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a confirmed three step MCSUM pattern in the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-10-05 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing that should happen here if this a third wave extension
2010-10-05 16:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that volume should really start to pick up dramatically
2010-10-05 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our focus, of course, is more with the plurality of volume than it would be the daily numbers
2010-10-05 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the NYUD...one moment
2010-10-05 16:23:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AMUD is at all time highs now
2010-10-05 16:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NAUD is challenging its September highs...no breakout as yet
2010-10-05 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got a breakout to the upside on the NYUD
2010-10-05 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and acceleration breakout to boot
2010-10-05 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see it? http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/nyud100510.png
2010-10-05 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYUD is also in a Bullish Configuration as of today's close
2010-10-05 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-10-05 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one should be short here
2010-10-05 16:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or even thinking about
2010-10-05 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2010-10-05 16:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still are waiting for further proof of strength
2010-10-05 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why when we talked about the MCO moving below the zero line last week
2010-10-05 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't going to be signal to sell
2010-10-05 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was going to be a signal to hold
2010-10-05 16:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main reason, of course, comes with the height of the MCSUM
2010-10-05 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it gets above the +500 level (or below -500)
2010-10-05 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes very difficult for prices to move in the other direction for periods of time
2010-10-05 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case, we tend to get quick sell-offs, followed by rebounds in quick fashion
2010-10-05 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where any surprises would be to the upside...like today
2010-10-05 16:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also bounced off its zero line today
2010-10-05 16:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2010-10-05 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it too remains below the recent highs made in the September period
2010-10-05 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow through by the bulls tomorrow would tilt the odds of a continued price advance for at least another week
2010-10-05 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ composite price pattern is still 25 points below its May highs
2010-10-05 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be our conservative target for the next day or so
2010-10-05 16:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we'll still have the momentum of today's move to follow
2010-10-05 16:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...it will be interesting to see what happens if the NASDAQ breadth MCO can hold the double bottom off the zero line
2010-10-05 16:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a sign of amazing underlying strength
2010-10-05 16:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we come to the NDX
2010-10-05 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we did get our snapback to the zero line today with other MCO's bouncing off theirs
2010-10-05 16:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, was something we talked about on Thursday
2010-10-05 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another interesting factoid
2010-10-05 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that for the first time in a while
2010-10-05 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite moved to higher highs before the NDX 100
2010-10-05 16:33:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ledge on NDX?
2010-10-05 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what that could suggest is maybe money is feeling more bold in moving into the lower grade stocks now
2010-10-05 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would call it a hesitation for now Lew
2010-10-05 16:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ledges generally don't trace out so close to the top
2010-10-05 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are pausing structures within a trend of money flow
2010-10-05 16:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...we have no downtrend
2010-10-05 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a top
2010-10-05 16:34:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2010-10-05 16:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to consider
2010-10-05 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is looking at the components of the NDX MCO
2010-10-05 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they bounced off their zero line
2010-10-05 16:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this were a true ledge
2010-10-05 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would be in gear to the downside
2010-10-05 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...we're not
2010-10-05 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation was
2010-10-05 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continues to be
2010-10-05 16:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of any pullbacks as being corrective activity
2010-10-05 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2010-10-05 16:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10's left something to be desired for a actual tradable top last Thursday
2010-10-05 16:37:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: trin was .28 today
2010-10-05 16:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-05 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of short covering
2010-10-05 16:37:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-10-05 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going to the SPX data
2010-10-05 16:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: several things of note here
2010-10-05 16:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's start with the price chart
2010-10-05 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had been talking about a trading range that had 1125 as the upper zone of that range
2010-10-05 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over the last 3 weeks or so
2010-10-05 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have been moving in horizontal fashion just above this breakout zone
2010-10-05 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without much in the way of a test
2010-10-05 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, in and of itself, shows tremendous strength of pattern
2010-10-05 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very little in the way of selling
2010-10-05 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the consolidation therefore developed that there was not enough buying to push it on its way
2010-10-05 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..today we got that
2010-10-05 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 1175 is now the minimal target
2010-10-05 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those with Elliott eyes
2010-10-05 16:40:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this daily chart pattern gives us one of the better examples of how maybe we just finished a small second wave flat
2010-10-05 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-10-05 16:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that points of support or resistance are broken during third waves
2010-10-05 16:41:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1125 break was a small third wave
2010-10-05 16:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if we can start to add to the momentum of volume plurality here
2010-10-05 16:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYAD line already at all time highs
2010-10-05 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where, in theory, everyone is a winner
2010-10-05 16:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will tend to accelerate as more and more money feeds the machine
2010-10-05 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember
2010-10-05 16:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher (or lower) the MCSUM is
2010-10-05 16:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger the percentage change moves in the average stock in the direction of the trend
2010-10-05 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our being above the +750 level in the composite NYSE data
2010-10-05 16:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would equate to the average stock will now tend to move in 3/4 to 1 percent moves
2010-10-05 16:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be more
2010-10-05 16:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're talking the average stock
2010-10-05 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-10-05 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we know that once we get above the +500 level, we can say that we have met "escape velocity"
2010-10-05 16:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we get continued follow through tomorrow
2010-10-05 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's an excellent chance that we're not only going to challenge the April highs
2010-10-05 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM moving higher and higher
2010-10-05 16:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and knowing that even if the MCSUM turns lower prices can still make higher highs based on the momentum of the energy created
2010-10-05 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the April highs will be taken out
2010-10-05 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably by a large margin
2010-10-05 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this also happens
2010-10-05 16:46:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that this would a significant overhead resistance line to cross
2010-10-05 16:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this would be fully consistent to an 3rd wave in Elliott
2010-10-05 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...all of this needs to work together to give us the best blueprint to work with
2010-10-05 16:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again..I must stress....the bulls need to show follow through quickly, or we could be looking at a near term rally failure
2010-10-05 16:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then begin the correction we've been looking for
2010-10-05 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more thing
2010-10-05 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's value in the SPX breadth MCO was a +24
2010-10-05 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a 48 point move
2010-10-05 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take 48 from +24 you get a -24
2010-10-05 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so given that the MCO pattern has remained above its zero line for the minimum time required
2010-10-05 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that being of 3-4 weeks
2010-10-05 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF
2010-10-05 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I say again - IF
2010-10-05 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we leave a -24 reading behind us and move to higher highs
2010-10-05 16:50:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a classic McClellan Oscillator "Buy Spike"
2010-10-05 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then promise at least 3 more weeks of rising prices
2010-10-05 16:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all through the month of October
2010-10-05 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as each day passes
2010-10-05 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears start to loss more and more
2010-10-05 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while looking for that inevitable "crash"
2010-10-05 16:51:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can pretty much guess what things may look like by election day
2010-10-05 16:52:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what would be needed to invalidate the buy spike?
2010-10-05 16:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX data is pretty much in the same boat at the SPX data
2010-10-05 16:52:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a sudden and swift move to the downside
2010-10-05 16:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rally failure
2010-10-05 16:53:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: with what plurality?
2010-10-05 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is why Wednesday becomes important now
2010-10-05 16:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have to look...EMA's are tricky
2010-10-05 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2010-10-05 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...for tomorrow
2010-10-05 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a zero point change in the NYSE breadth MCO: +435
2010-10-05 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the MCO to move back down to its zero line
2010-10-05 16:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would take a -797
2010-10-05 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-10-05 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take something on the scale of 3:1 negative breadth to turn the tables here
2010-10-05 16:55:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Thank you, Wedns is WWW, so there may be a bit of gaming there, as well
2010-10-05 16:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-10-05 16:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these numbers are a great tool to watch for on Wedndesday
2010-10-05 16:56:09 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What is WWW?
2010-10-05 16:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're up 3:1 positive..we'll likely have our follow through
2010-10-05 16:56:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super - that's why I asked
2010-10-05 16:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if down 3:1 then we have a failure
2010-10-05 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything in between should be looked as a quick pause
2010-10-05 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: WWW = Wild Woolly Wednesday
2010-10-05 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a term coined by Don Wolanchuk
2010-10-05 16:57:17 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Sorry, what is that?
2010-10-05 16:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-05 16:57:28 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-05 16:57:49 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-10-05 16:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the futures contracts turn over the Wednesday before the week of expiration
2010-10-05 16:58:14 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I see
2010-10-05 16:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what Don showed us is that a lot of manipulation can be seen when contracts are turned over
2010-10-05 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some swear by this
2010-10-05 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: others see it have a determining factor only once in a while
2010-10-05 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be sort of like the just past September OPEX where nothing happened
2010-10-05 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and volume was low
2010-10-05 16:59:41 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK. Thanks!
2010-10-05 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the traders who usually believe that things get tricky on WWW are those who tend to trade on an intraday daily basis
2010-10-05 17:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short and intermediate term wise, it doesn't have much of an effect
2010-10-05 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (a fair statement?)
2010-10-05 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (very quiet all of sudden )
2010-10-05 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on
2010-10-05 17:01:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, fair
2010-10-05 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2010-10-05 17:01:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but can provide some great set ups
2010-10-05 17:01:48 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Could we have a 3:1 down day tomorrow followed by more upside later on, or would that be unlikely?
2010-10-05 17:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the MCSUM goes
2010-10-05 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the harder it is to have high negative breadth plurality
2010-10-05 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because what the MCSUM is showing you is that a higher majority of trades going on right now are on the buy side
2010-10-05 17:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say...in this case...with a +750 MCSUM
2010-10-05 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for every sell, there are 3 or 4 buys
2010-10-05 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should be reflected in the breadth data...let me look
2010-10-05 17:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2479/579
2010-10-05 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost 5:1
2010-10-05 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds of getting 3:1 negative are not as good as getting 3:1 positive
2010-10-05 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't want to fight the trend
2010-10-05 17:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be like going into the ocean and trying to fight your way against a rip tide
2010-10-05 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might get some distance...but for every stroke you take...the rip will take you back 4
2010-10-05 17:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if one were to short here
2010-10-05 17:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might get an intraday move to benefit the trade
2010-10-05 17:05:51 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I get it Where do you see the 2479/579 figures?
2010-10-05 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we've been talking about for over 4 weeks now
2010-10-05 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're going short here...you must make it a hit and run trade
2010-10-05 17:06:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-10-05 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over at WSJ - http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html
2010-10-05 17:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't use any other free site for data
2010-10-05 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Yahoo is polluted as well as Google
2010-10-05 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-10-05 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "[i][u]path of least resistance[/i][/u]" remains to the upside
2010-10-05 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key then is to trade with the bigger tide
2010-10-05 17:08:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: pricewatcher - you can set up a chart with $ADV and $DEC and watch it throughout the day-if you like
2010-10-05 17:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while looking for things that would impede on its progress
2010-10-05 17:08:30 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I have it
2010-10-05 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...moving on to the Dow data
2010-10-05 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got our zero line snapback today
2010-10-05 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2010-10-05 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM looks to be testing support at the +750 level
2010-10-05 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow MCO components also gave us our obligatory bounce off their zero lines as well
2010-10-05 17:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again...we want to see if the bulls are ready to show the kind of muscle that they will need to move above the April highs
2010-10-05 17:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the MID
2010-10-05 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we mentioned last Thursday, the MID breadth MCO had moved to higher highs which wouldn't be fully consistent to a price top
2010-10-05 17:11:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then saw this MCO moved down to its zero line (as expected)
2010-10-05 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with today's move higher
2010-10-05 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now a slightly higher high
2010-10-05 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2010-10-05 17:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a bottom above a bottom in place
2010-10-05 17:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sign of strong underlying strength with this group of stocks
2010-10-05 17:12:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and does suggest follow through as soon as tomorrow
2010-10-05 17:12:55 [Message] darris -> Chat: WWW is the Option Expiration cycle. Typically for what ever reason, there has been a tendency to get a low 7-10 days before the monthly expiry day. 7 days before is WWW, and when looking at percentages over history, mid-week the week before expiry a lot of lows occur. Yesterday was a good start in seeing that cycle work out, but today basically blew that pattern out of the water. Anyway, since I follow this pattern very closely, that is my two cents on the subject.
2010-10-05 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the MID breadth MCSUM is now at the +500 level
2010-10-05 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and thank you for that Darris
2010-10-05 17:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's an "all depends" thing
2010-10-05 17:13:39 [Message] darris -> Chat: NP, just wanted to get it in, LOL
2010-10-05 17:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was hoping you would
2010-10-05 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2010-10-05 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...it's just an excuse
2010-10-05 17:14:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: Totally agree
2010-10-05 17:14:28 [Message] darris -> Chat: Timing for me
2010-10-05 17:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the way when people use the FED as an excuse for a busted trade
2010-10-05 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2010-10-05 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Helicopter Ben...and all of that rubbish
2010-10-05 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: platitudes will get you no where in this business
2010-10-05 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only watching the direction of money flow will give you the upper hand in all this
2010-10-05 17:15:31 [Message] darris -> Chat: Yes, that is a good one. Helicopter Ben. I think he had several helicopters flying today, LOL
2010-10-05 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with September giving another great example
2010-10-05 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can always tell the people who don't trade technically with that one comment
2010-10-05 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all emotion for these folks
2010-10-05 17:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "it MUST crash"
2010-10-05 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "and it can't crash because the FED is overwhelming the buy side"
2010-10-05 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "they won't let it"
2010-10-05 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which leads us to the biggest farce there is
2010-10-05 17:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the PPT
2010-10-05 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...different strokes
2010-10-05 17:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on to the SML data
2010-10-05 17:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today we got our breakout in the SML price pattern above the 360 level
2010-10-05 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we didn't get was confirmation with the SML breadth MCO
2010-10-05 17:18:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this happens, we tend to see a day or two of backing and filling period as the market repairs a "false start"
2010-10-05 17:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always important that breadth of market lead the direction of price and not the other way around
2010-10-05 17:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that the SML breadth MCSUM has now fully moved up to the +250 level
2010-10-05 17:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have commented before
2010-10-05 17:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the SML breadth MCSUM can join the other market indices above this level
2010-10-05 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then kill any risk below the July lows for probably several months
2010-10-05 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2010-10-05 17:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any "disaster waiting to happen"
2010-10-05 17:20:35 [Message] darris -> Chat: You make a very good statement in that regard. It is just a game of chance, and you develop clues to guide you in the bias of your position. Good systems keep you on the right side of the trade, and stops maintain good money management when wrong, or something unexpected happens. Very critical to success that a certain level of discipline is maintained. Thanks for that!!
2010-10-05 17:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always a case of discipline
2010-10-05 17:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and believing in your indicators
2010-10-05 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: patience and discipline...without the two, you're toast
2010-10-05 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing random that takes place in the markets
2010-10-05 17:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always order
2010-10-05 17:22:12 [Message] darris -> Chat: It is also good that you teach here end of day analysis, because the intraday stuff is designed to create doubt
2010-10-05 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might seem chaotic...
2010-10-05 17:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2010-10-05 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more so today than even 10 years ago
2010-10-05 17:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I remember back in the mid 90's
2010-10-05 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Lycos developed a java script to give us intraday charts to work with on the Internet
2010-10-05 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how everyone all of sudden was living and dying with every price tick
2010-10-05 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they lost their focus to what the larger day trend was
2010-10-05 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was all being done for you without the help of a number 2 pencil and graph paper
2010-10-05 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very important to know where you are in the bigger picture
2010-10-05 17:24:06 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: What do you make of the divergence in A/D line between the NYSE commons and the NYSE composite?
2010-10-05 17:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because without it, you will tend to lose out on the smaller nuances that occur during the day
2010-10-05 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what divergence?
2010-10-05 17:24:47 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: the commons have not made a new high since April.
2010-10-05 17:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the composite is at all time highs and the common isn't?
2010-10-05 17:24:55 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes
2010-10-05 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you see this past weekend's charts?
2010-10-05 17:25:24 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: yes
2010-10-05 17:25:32 [Message] darris -> Chat: The commons are just now catching up to what the composite has been leading to for months, if I may interject my comment.
2010-10-05 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2010-10-05 17:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite will ALWAYS lead the commons
2010-10-05 17:25:56 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-05 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Bonds lead the preferred
2010-10-05 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the preferred lead the composite
2010-10-05 17:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the commons are the last to run
2010-10-05 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason?
2010-10-05 17:26:35 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: yes please
2010-10-05 17:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the interest rate sensitive issues will move in advance of economic activity
2010-10-05 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it be expanding or contracting
2010-10-05 17:27:03 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-05 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the commons only reflect the "stimulus" given by monetary policy
2010-10-05 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...as interest rates move higher
2010-10-05 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the interest rate sensitives start to sell off
2010-10-05 17:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher interest rates mean that the economy is expanding
2010-10-05 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's the case, then earnings start to increase
2010-10-05 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is reflected in a "common" stock
2010-10-05 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there isn't any divergence
2010-10-05 17:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is simple
2010-10-05 17:28:28 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-05 17:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Bond CEF line is the proverbial "canary in a coal mine"
2010-10-05 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be the first to top out and decline as liquidity starts to dry up
2010-10-05 17:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: preferred stocks would be next being that they are both stocks and value and growth
2010-10-05 17:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the composite (broad market)
2010-10-05 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the commons
2010-10-05 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the asset classes
2010-10-05 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money travels on different paths
2010-10-05 17:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the case of the asset classes
2010-10-05 17:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it first goes into gold
2010-10-05 17:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then into commodities
2010-10-05 17:30:17 [Message] darris -> Chat: The Bond CEF index that Randy provides topped out in May 2007, and well in advance of the commons at that time
2010-10-05 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then into debt
2010-10-05 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and finally into equities
2010-10-05 17:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, by about 4 months
2010-10-05 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the preferred issues topped out 2 or 3 months before
2010-10-05 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line about a month or two out
2010-10-05 17:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always TIME to position yourself
2010-10-05 17:31:40 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks. That is really valuable
2010-10-05 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest indicator that screamed that the something was wrong with real estate was the REIT data
2010-10-05 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for months it showed a very obvious distribution pattern
2010-10-05 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once it broke down...so did everything else
2010-10-05 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look back at the archives on the message board
2010-10-05 17:32:43 [Message] darris -> Chat: Real Estate and Banks were the clue at the Oct 2007 high, as they were horribly negative divergent at that time as Fib points out.
2010-10-05 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see the charts back then
2010-10-05 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the REITS broke down in June...if I remember correctly
2010-10-05 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...everything is there for your review
2010-10-05 17:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike some websites...I make it a point to archive everything
2010-10-05 17:34:12 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I will have a look
2010-10-05 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way no one can say this or that
2010-10-05 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2010-10-05 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is from 12/21/2007 - http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=2376110
2010-10-05 17:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money was left the REIT sector beginning on June 22, 2007
2010-10-05 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see clearly the A/D divergence in the October period as well
2010-10-05 17:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the beauty of this kind of work
2010-10-05 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can show conclusively "WHY" this ot that is likely to occur
2010-10-05 17:36:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no supposition
2010-10-05 17:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what it is
2010-10-05 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-10-05 17:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCO bounced off its zero line today
2010-10-05 17:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has pushed the TM breadth MCSUM above its +500 level
2010-10-05 17:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we continue to see good post expansion here...we're going to be off to the races
2010-10-05 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...quick look at the volume McClellan's
2010-10-05 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO and Composite volume MCO's continue to be in sync
2010-10-05 17:38:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and BOTH have gone to new highs
2010-10-05 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and BOTH are leading breadth to the upside
2010-10-05 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is something that must be respected for what it implies
2010-10-05 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is...
2010-10-05 17:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we are in gear to the upside
2010-10-05 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and doing so for actually the first time since the May decline (where we were in gear to the downside
2010-10-05 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on this alone...all shorts should be covered
2010-10-05 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...this market is so close to really having a tremendous move to the upside
2010-10-05 17:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I say this because of the positions of the MCSUM's
2010-10-05 17:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both for breadth and volume
2010-10-05 17:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many of them at or just above their +500 levels
2010-10-05 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't seen this happen since 2003
2010-10-05 17:42:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the MID and SML volume MCSUM's are leading their breadth cousins to the upside
2010-10-05 17:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it must be stressed...that if volume plurality continues strong here, there is a lot of upside potential here given that prices tend to echo the direction and amplitude of their underlying volume data
2010-10-05 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where breadth is the lungs of the market
2010-10-05 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume is the heart
2010-10-05 17:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have a strong heart
2010-10-05 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're likely to climb the hill with the least amount of fatigue
2010-10-05 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the exception of the NDX, all of the other CVI's are now "overbought"
2010-10-05 17:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest a price top within the next two trading days
2010-10-05 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this respect
2010-10-05 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a price top would be that of a pause and NOT that of anything important to the daily trend of the price structure itself
2010-10-05 17:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is more of a pause point
2010-10-05 17:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an extreme in energy that usually diverges because it can't do anything else but diverge
2010-10-05 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are neutral
2010-10-05 17:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that we have a lot of room to continue higher
2010-10-05 17:46:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are slightly "overbought" now
2010-10-05 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .28
2010-10-05 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2010-10-05 17:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember this was our caution last Thursday?
2010-10-05 17:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .64
2010-10-05 17:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-05 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2010-10-05 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-10-05 17:48:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .46
2010-10-05 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2010-10-05 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silly, isn't it?
2010-10-05 17:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 2% move in prices
2010-10-05 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're STILL "oversold:
2010-10-05 17:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-10-05 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the benefit of any doubt remains with the bulls
2010-10-05 17:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they can get continued support near term
2010-10-05 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will be running for cover
2010-10-05 17:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also interesting to note
2010-10-05 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this rally today was on the back of a Gallup poll that showed that the Republican's had the widest poll numbers over the incumbent Democrats in all the years since Gallup started these polls...1942
2010-10-05 17:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about in August and September
2010-10-05 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is any chance that we can have "nothing done" in Washington
2010-10-05 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the market won't have to worry about "clarity"
2010-10-05 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and things like this make a trend that much stronger
2010-10-05 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-05 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line
2010-10-05 17:53:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what do you make of fashion week?
2010-10-05 17:53:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fashion week?
2010-10-05 17:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Spring?
2010-10-05 17:53:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: one of my students had questions about it-said it was last week?
2010-10-05 17:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many shows across the country
2010-10-05 17:54:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2010-10-05 17:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here's what's being shown
2010-10-05 17:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jewel tones
2010-10-05 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shocking pink
2010-10-05 17:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sapphire
2010-10-05 17:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jades
2010-10-05 17:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: purple
2010-10-05 17:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get jewel tones like this
2010-10-05 17:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially for spring
2010-10-05 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is reflective of economic expansion
2010-10-05 17:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: skirt lengths are rising
2010-10-05 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see shoulders again
2010-10-05 17:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both bull market fashion statements
2010-10-05 17:55:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good news
2010-10-05 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for spring 2011
2010-10-05 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we're going to be in the midst of an uptrend
2010-10-05 17:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fashion is very easy to interpret
2010-10-05 17:56:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: skirt lengths
2010-10-05 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: colors
2010-10-05 17:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bodice work
2010-10-05 17:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the use of trims
2010-10-05 17:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all are a part of the mood of the masses
2010-10-05 17:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business wise here
2010-10-05 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is better than the summer
2010-10-05 17:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not what I would call stellar
2010-10-05 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-05 17:57:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for the good work
2010-10-05 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to call it night
2010-10-05 17:58:10 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes, thanks a lot
2010-10-05 17:58:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2010-10-05 17:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll hook up again on Thursday
2010-10-05 17:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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Taz

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Posts: 11
Reply with quote  #2 
if by some amazing chance that the MCO can take out its September highs in this sequence

Hi Dave,

With respect to your above comments and other times when you have said the same thing in similar circumstances, are you looking for the MCO to break the actual MCO high or for it to break the MCO value that is associated with the price high (which would be a divergant MCO high)? I was under the impression it was the latter?

Cheers beers. Keep up the good work.

Taz


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
are you looking for the MCO to break the actual MCO high or for it to break the MCO value that is associated with the price high

Both - as the mid September highs are one in the same.

Think of each extreme in the McClellan Oscillator as a height achieved as one would climb a mountain...a point in which one exhausts themselves and then takes a pause as if to regroup. If you're then able to later move above that "flag point", it's likely that you're going to move to an even higher pinnacle to where you will (once again) reach a new level of exhaustion...with lack of air (breadth) the main culprit in this exhaustion.

So the reference here is that as we take out one MCO extreme, the rest of the group of the climbing party (prices) are then able to play catch up with the head climber to either higher price highs or lower price lows (all depending on the direction of the "climb"). In this specific case, we had our flag posted at the end of July (which cleared the way for the rest of the party to follow higher), and a divergent flag posted in mid September (which limited the height to be traveled). Sooo..."if by some amazing chance that the MCO can take out its September highs in this sequence", then the climbing party can then advance to an even higher plateau then that of the July/September sequence provides, and given the stronger zero line foundation below them (higher base camp) to do this, would then be likely to be refreshed enough to be able to move to the next level in direct relation to its previous failure to achieve (the April highs).

Looking at the map we're given to work with, that next level would be the SPX 1300 to 1400 range which provided pause points on the way down off the mountain back in 2008.

If you have any follow up questions, please don't hesitate to ask.

Fib


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Taz

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Reply with quote  #4 
Thanks Dave,

A very good analogy!

Cheers

Taz - Dan
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