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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-10-04 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-10-04 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-10-04 16:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (hopefully in one piece after the close we had today...jeez!)
2011-10-04 16:01:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thx
2011-10-04 16:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about that 350 point reversal in the last hour?
2011-10-04 16:01:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "Big Europe News" LOL
2011-10-04 16:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I looked at the market at 14:30
2011-10-04 16:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 225 and the next thing I know...wow
2011-10-04 16:02:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: was a big move
2011-10-04 16:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...whatcha think? bottom?
2011-10-04 16:02:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not for me
2011-10-04 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not for me either
2011-10-04 16:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me thinks it was just part and parcel of another short covering snapback
2011-10-04 16:03:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: trin .26....
2011-10-04 16:03:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know more in a bit
2011-10-04 16:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then, yes, short covering
2011-10-04 16:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not going to be good for the Open 10's
2011-10-04 16:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was playing with the numbers last night
2011-10-04 16:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we had a small number today, that might put the Open 10's in the low 1.00's
2011-10-04 16:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-10-04 16:04:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well they don't get much smaller, eh?
2011-10-04 16:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not on the NYSE
2011-10-04 16:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: comparable NASDAQ would be around .30
2011-10-04 16:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I updated the Elliott count over the weekend
2011-10-04 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did everyone see it?
2011-10-04 16:06:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I did
2011-10-04 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like it?
2011-10-04 16:06:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-10-04 16:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm pretty sure it's the only one out there with that labeling
2011-10-04 16:06:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'd say for sure
2011-10-04 16:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw one the other day
2011-10-04 16:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having a double zig zag terminal with Sept OPEX
2011-10-04 16:07:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the counts around the net are simply unreal
2011-10-04 16:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wondered where they learned that a second C wave can be over 20 points lower than the first?
2011-10-04 16:08:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: most counts I see violate incredibly
2011-10-04 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bias
2011-10-04 16:08:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: they have positions, LOL
2011-10-04 16:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bias 
2011-10-04 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...let's take a look around and see what we have to work with
2011-10-04 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to minimally "oversold" on Monday
2011-10-04 16:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO gave us our obligatory snapback to the zero line today
2011-10-04 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has again slowed the rate of descent on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM at around the -750 level
2011-10-04 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's spike in this MCO has now given us the potential of bull divergence in place for the first time since the correction started
2011-10-04 16:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that our ideal time window for a bottom given by the NYSE breadth MCSUM back in July is for next week
2011-10-04 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this adds continued weight that the market is, indeed, trying its best to find a tradable bottom here
2011-10-04 16:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, on review of the other breadth MCO's yesterday
2011-10-04 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have several other indices that created new flags which isn't in sync with this same divergent structure
2011-10-04 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bit a more time will be needed before we all sync up here
2011-10-04 16:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2011-10-04 16:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're building texture
2011-10-04 16:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also bounced higher today off the -50 area
2011-10-04 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bounce here didn't have the same amplitude with that of the common only stocks
2011-10-04 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest again that we're not seeing the needed leadership that is part of creating a tradable bottom
2011-10-04 16:14:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow! big difference
2011-10-04 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we like to see the broader market, led by the interest rate sensitive issues. move in advance of the commons
2011-10-04 16:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-04 16:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can see just how much weaker these same interest rate sensitive issues are at this juncture
2011-10-04 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2011-10-04 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reversal stick generated today was made up of short covering
2011-10-04 16:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NYA chart
2011-10-04 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we finished the day fully snapping back to the closing lows prior to yesterday's hard decline and break of support
2011-10-04 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO is also showing a shallow amount of bull divergence with yesterday's decline
2011-10-04 16:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the important point here is that both the NASDAQ and NDX were more vulnerable to a decline than the NYSE group of stocks were on any kind of technical breakdown
2011-10-04 16:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw that yesterday as both of these indices played catch up
2011-10-04 16:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-10-04 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even with today's close near the highs
2011-10-04 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ composite index has lost some 150 points in 4 trading days
2011-10-04 16:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's enough to make everyone stand up and take notice
2011-10-04 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and goes under the category of a "crash like" move in the index
2011-10-04 16:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2011-10-04 16:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here is one of the problems we touched on at the top of the hour
2011-10-04 16:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how we now have a series of lower lows in this MCO
2011-10-04 16:21:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to take a bit of time to right this pattern to the point where prices can again rally and hold their gains
2011-10-04 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worse still
2011-10-04 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have no divergence at all at this point in time
2011-10-04 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a semi positive note
2011-10-04 16:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the NDX breadth MCSUM couldn't negotiate itself above the zero line
2011-10-04 16:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is now within striking distance of finding potential support at the -250 level
2011-10-04 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components
2011-10-04 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue on a cross over sell
2011-10-04 16:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2011-10-04 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any discussion of any "key" reversals doesn't have the correct internal action to even be considered at this juncture
2011-10-04 16:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even though out 2 components that make up such a pattern are probably there
2011-10-04 16:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my guess though, without even looking, is that Open Interest on the ES and the ND are not contracting here as yet
2011-10-04 16:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they may have topped out
2011-10-04 16:24:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wouldn't we have had to close above yesterdays high?
2011-10-04 16:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not necessarily
2011-10-04 16:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are three components of a reversal being "key"
2011-10-04 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first thing is we have to remember that the term "key reversal" came from the futures pits in the early 1980's
2011-10-04 16:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2011-10-04 16:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are specific criteria allowing the range bar to be called "key"
2011-10-04 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first is that the pattern must had made a life of contract low or high
2011-10-04 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check
2011-10-04 16:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the second is that volume should be heavy into the reversal
2011-10-04 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't checked on that yet
2011-10-04 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the third component though has to do with Open Interest on the contract
2011-10-04 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if OI is continuing to expand into the reversal it's not "key" to the pattern
2011-10-04 16:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if OI is contracting moving INTO the reversal point
2011-10-04 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THEN it could be called a "key" bar to the direction of the pattern, no less, traders moving with enough conviction to push prices in the opposite direction
2011-10-04 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many like the term "key reversal" for it sounds exciting
2011-10-04 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but because of the criteria laid out here, they happen very rarely
2011-10-04 16:29:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: how would I check the open interest?
2011-10-04 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can quickly...one moment
2011-10-04 16:29:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-10-04 16:33:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP
2011-10-04 16:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK this is a daily chart of the December futures
2011-10-04 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see couple pieces of the criteria
2011-10-04 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one...we did make a life of contract low
2011-10-04 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two...volume was NOT in the picture at all
2011-10-04 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: three...open interest is still rising
2011-10-04 16:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we did NOT have a "key" reversal
2011-10-04 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, an intraday reversal
2011-10-04 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not one that is "KEY" to the chart pattern
2011-10-04 16:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-10-04 16:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the life of contract lows was so shallow today that it begs for a retest
2011-10-04 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that retest will tend to occur within a couple of trading days
2011-10-04 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2011-10-04 16:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many will use the low sentiment numbers, the TRIN's, and other "oversold" indicators to back their using of the word "key"
2011-10-04 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now you have a better reason why this occurs in the first place
2011-10-04 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything technical has everything to do with buyers and sellers and they opinions on where their monies should be placed
2011-10-04 16:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today...the elephants stomped out the shorts
2011-10-04 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is usually in preparation of a something that is going to hit many broad side in the next couple of days
2011-10-04 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just when they think it's safe to stop and reverse
2011-10-04 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is exactly the time in which they should be looking for an ambush
2011-10-04 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we have a lack of sync in the short term trend of breadth
2011-10-04 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing on the chart link
2011-10-04 16:39:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note the RSI is only at 41
2011-10-04 16:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not "oversold" at all
2011-10-04 16:39:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: TT looks like a bull stampede...
2011-10-04 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-04 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2011-10-04 16:40:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-10-04 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the kind of sentiment we want to see as we dig into our bottom
2011-10-04 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we touched on this last week
2011-10-04 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many looking for a bottom here because the bad news is all out and the market kept trading sideways
2011-10-04 16:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every time it hit 1120 cash
2011-10-04 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it rallied
2011-10-04 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except
2011-10-04 16:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for
2011-10-04 16:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday
2011-10-04 16:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we've snapped back to this same psychological point
2011-10-04 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw several posts on covering shorts and immediately going long as the Dow rallied from -250 to -30
2011-10-04 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it moved back down to -250 before rallying hard in the last hour
2011-10-04 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: question
2011-10-04 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many of those who covered in the morning and went long were still in those positions after the Dow moved back down -250 in the afternoon?
2011-10-04 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who really knows whether they had the discipline to close their longs on the retest or hanging in on their position and getting bailed out at the close??
2011-10-04 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone can say anything they want
2011-10-04 16:44:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I saw NO one shorting the retest
2011-10-04 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buying op?
2011-10-04 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I didn't see that
2011-10-04 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they held by and large
2011-10-04 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and got bailed out
2011-10-04 16:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what futures are doing
2011-10-04 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ES down 2
2011-10-04 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we've seen over the last month
2011-10-04 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the futures do early is not at all indicative on what they'll look like at 9:30
2011-10-04 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that volatility...wow
2011-10-04 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2011-10-04 16:47:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: vix got killed, even before the pop
2011-10-04 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here too we moved to lower lows yesterday
2011-10-04 16:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...but it's still high enough where both sides can get slaughtered in a hurry
2011-10-04 16:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: options are a no no
2011-10-04 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you imagine holding November 1200 puts today
2011-10-04 16:48:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh man
2011-10-04 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 25 intraday
2011-10-04 16:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down 20 at the close!
2011-10-04 16:48:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I sold my puts this morning-more gut feel than anything
2011-10-04 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...you must have iron in your guts
2011-10-04 16:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cause I wouldn't get near options here
2011-10-04 16:49:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: breadth was only so bad
2011-10-04 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth was 14:1 negative at the open
2011-10-04 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we were sitting on MCO and MCSUM support
2011-10-04 16:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it was either going to hold...or collapse
2011-10-04 16:50:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not for long, though-and the NQ trin was squeezing by 10:00
2011-10-04 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turns out...it did both
2011-10-04 16:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really an amazing day
2011-10-04 16:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the SPX breadth MCSUM found its resistance at the -250 level
2011-10-04 16:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and moved slightly below the lows of two weeks ago today
2011-10-04 16:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls really need to turn this around
2011-10-04 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or this MCSUM is going to move to its next potential support level of -500
2011-10-04 16:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows on the OEX breadth MCO
2011-10-04 16:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who may be wondering
2011-10-04 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, we did generate some bullish divergences yesterday with the 8/8 lows but its not all that conclusive
2011-10-04 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only slight
2011-10-04 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we get these kind of patterns
2011-10-04 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually need to see a better wash out in prices before this same divergence can be called "clean"
2011-10-04 16:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not of this sloppiness we see here
2011-10-04 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO didn't even take out its prior lows yesterday with any kind of conviction
2011-10-04 16:55:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is keeping the Dow breadth MCSUM from topping out in any important way
2011-10-04 16:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least at this point in time
2011-10-04 16:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that one side usually will control the short term trend of the money flow (the MCO) for a period of 4-6 weeks
2011-10-04 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely then that we're going to see continued chipping away at this same rising MCSUM structure
2011-10-04 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...days like today sure do give a great example of what's termed "the slop of hope"
2011-10-04 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the price pattern's slope
2011-10-04 16:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's hope of a bottom
2011-10-04 16:57:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2011-10-04 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2011-10-04 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tops beneath tops continued to control the daily patterns
2011-10-04 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO now has the potential for bull divergence in place
2011-10-04 16:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but note how the price pattern closed almost exactly at what was prior support up until yesterday
2011-10-04 16:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have balance between buyers and sellers here
2011-10-04 16:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could say then that the 775 level on the MID is "fairly valued"
2011-10-04 17:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside objective there remains at around the 700 level
2011-10-04 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me
2011-10-04 17:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did anyone notice where the lows of the day came in on the NYA?
2011-10-04 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right at the 6400 level which were the lows of last summer and one of our key targets
2011-10-04 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so ALL downside objectives have now been met given by the MCO back in July
2011-10-04 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice little tool, eh?
2011-10-04 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM gives us more projections in the area of time and we're in that window now
2011-10-04 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if it wasn't for all of those new MCO lows yesterday
2011-10-04 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today could had been a good point for a bottom
2011-10-04 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but alas
2011-10-04 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not this time
2011-10-04 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice solid action on the SML today
2011-10-04 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day
2011-10-04 17:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO is back above its zero line
2011-10-04 17:03:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain under water
2011-10-04 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means...
2011-10-04 17:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: corrective activity
2011-10-04 17:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're seeing better firmness here than we did back in August
2011-10-04 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's one of the ingredients we've been looking for to suggest a tradable bottom is getting close
2011-10-04 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and slight bullish divergence with the TM breadth MCO
2011-10-04 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you can see that, overall, money continues to leave the broader market with the direction of the TM breadth MCSUM
2011-10-04 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-10-04 17:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice shock and awe short covering rally took place at the close today
2011-10-04 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the sellers pretty much dried up in the early afternoon
2011-10-04 17:06:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the generals got pounded for a while today, as well-the start of the finish?
2011-10-04 17:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still..we have several potential problems on the road to recovery directly ahead of us
2011-10-04 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one being the ADP data
2011-10-04 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which comes out tomorrow
2011-10-04 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and earnings should start any time now
2011-10-04 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the generals will need to show more weakness before we see a bottom
2011-10-04 17:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the general public takes their cues on the market by what the Dow does
2011-10-04 17:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having moved to new 52 week lows yesterday
2011-10-04 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then topping it off with all the talk of our being in a bear market this morning by the financial channels
2011-10-04 17:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a positive close today provided a collective sigh of relief to many
2011-10-04 17:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping them from selling tomorrow since we're not a bear market now as we made new lows, held, and then closed positively
2011-10-04 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: typical specialists merchandising
2011-10-04 17:09:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2011-10-04 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not people buying that make prices go higher
2011-10-04 17:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's prices going higher that make people buy
2011-10-04 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was a great example of this concept
2011-10-04 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last two months have been an even greater example
2011-10-04 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we went from 1120 to 1220 in a matter of trading hours
2011-10-04 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sellers went long
2011-10-04 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got caught
2011-10-04 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longs went short
2011-10-04 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got caught again
2011-10-04 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most of the trading you generally read about is usually "after the fact"
2011-10-04 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then those who follow get in after..."after the fact"
2011-10-04 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a pyramid scheme
2011-10-04 17:12:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: or, they talk platitudes-but not about their trades
2011-10-04 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's trading on a message board
2011-10-04 17:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have to also consider that everyone is going to be right once in a while
2011-10-04 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though they will be right for the wrong reasons
2011-10-04 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: happens
2011-10-04 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like playing slots
2011-10-04 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you put in your money
2011-10-04 17:13:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: man, with the charts they use to trade-it's hard to see how they make any money
2011-10-04 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the machine gives you just enough "cherries" to keep you there and spending your money
2011-10-04 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you finally realize its all gone
2011-10-04 17:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have nothing to show for it except hope
2011-10-04 17:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading is just like a casino
2011-10-04 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to have a plan or your going to lose
2011-10-04 17:15:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and without a plan
2011-10-04 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, you can have a lucky streak
2011-10-04 17:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but streaks are just that...luck
2011-10-04 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2011-10-04 17:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO is just barely keeping up with its breadth cousin
2011-10-04 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not much there to work with
2011-10-04 17:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll need to see better sync between the two for the bulls to be successful
2011-10-04 17:17:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO volume MCSUM remains above its lows of early September so far as well as the -750 level
2011-10-04 17:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as you can see
2011-10-04 17:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neither side can really call themselves in control here with the lack of MCSUM post separation in either direction
2011-10-04 17:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the bears remain in a better position to break support levels quickly like they did yesterday
2011-10-04 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume MCO looks better here than its breadth counterpart
2011-10-04 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have a top beneath a top on the NYSE volume MCSUM
2011-10-04 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCO actually took out its mid August lows yesterday
2011-10-04 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a reset here is needed before we can even think of a bottom
2011-10-04 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the NDX volume MCO
2011-10-04 17:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice how again the NDX volume MCSUM could not negotiate itself back above its zero line
2011-10-04 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of feel sorry for those who took last months rally as something as a positive
2011-10-04 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice 3 wave advance there
2011-10-04 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a "B"
2011-10-04 17:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now in "C"?
2011-10-04 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who really knows
2011-10-04 17:23:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looks like
2011-10-04 17:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: labeling is so subjective when you're correcting
2011-10-04 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but even if that's the correct interpretation
2011-10-04 17:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still have 5 waves down for "C" yet to come
2011-10-04 17:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we haven't broken below the August lows as yet
2011-10-04 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2011-10-04 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're more than likely STILL in wave iii down
2011-10-04 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's rally at the close being part of a third wave extension
2011-10-04 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sub wave 2
2011-10-04 17:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless
2011-10-04 17:25:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: funny, was thinking same
2011-10-04 17:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's not let this deter us from our discipline here
2011-10-04 17:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is still highly volatile
2011-10-04 17:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what we do know here is that we're likely not finished yet
2011-10-04 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we still need to the internals to match up
2011-10-04 17:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until that happens
2011-10-04 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains lower
2011-10-04 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...I sure don't like today's bar
2011-10-04 17:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I smell trouble
2011-10-04 17:26:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: when they get in sync, the action will be smoother?
2011-10-04 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get in sync we will then be in a position to move from down to up
2011-10-04 17:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2011-10-04 17:27:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being out of sync gives us choppy behavior
2011-10-04 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now that the MCSUM's have turned lower
2011-10-04 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the choppiness will have more of a bearish resolution than a positive one
2011-10-04 17:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the larger trend from the July highs remains lower
2011-10-04 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're looking for now is reasons why it won't be able to continue on this same path
2011-10-04 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are getting some pieces of evidence now
2011-10-04 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's still staggered
2011-10-04 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not in sync
2011-10-04 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want, for example, bull divergence across as many venues as possible
2011-10-04 17:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want to see the MCSUM's as "oversold" as they can be
2011-10-04 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2011-10-04 17:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices move when there is a collective effort to do so
2011-10-04 17:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the trend is fluid, prices move with a great deal of predictability
2011-10-04 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then they out of sync, they tend to have a great amount of jerkiness to their structure
2011-10-04 17:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a car that's out of tune
2011-10-04 17:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or better yet
2011-10-04 17:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the strings on a guitar are out of tune, you can play a song, but it will be a bit off and hard to enjoy
2011-10-04 17:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in tune, there's nothing better
2011-10-04 17:31:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the CVI coming into today was begging for a bounce-not a huge surprise we did-one of the reasons I covered early
2011-10-04 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..it was highly "oversold"
2011-10-04 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the guideline there is that a price bottom is about 2 trading days away
2011-10-04 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today would fit that guideline
2011-10-04 17:32:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: "was" LOL
2011-10-04 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-04 17:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should be interesting to see how close to the zero line it got today
2011-10-04 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me move on
2011-10-04 17:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also on the volume MCSUM's how we've continued to tread sideways over the last couple of days
2011-10-04 17:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's not been a whole lot of fresh selling here
2011-10-04 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there hasn't been any fresh buying either
2011-10-04 17:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when money is just moving from one side of a trade to the other
2011-10-04 17:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the primary reasons we get these same choppy periods
2011-10-04 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just money regurgitating
2011-10-04 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sloshing back and forth with no real purpose
2011-10-04 17:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is fearful of lower values
2011-10-04 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other side is fearful that they may miss out when the market finds parity
2011-10-04 17:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we just "churn"
2011-10-04 17:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why corrections are so difficult to trade
2011-10-04 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is the main difference between what one can call corrective activity than that of trending activity
2011-10-04 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so given this idea
2011-10-04 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may have been trending lower in July and August
2011-10-04 17:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since that time we've had nothing resembling a trend
2011-10-04 17:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, sideways is also a trend
2011-10-04 17:37:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't get you anywhere except frustrated
2011-10-04 17:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of snapbacks to or toward the zero line tonight on many of the volume MCO
2011-10-04 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except the TM volume MCO is further away from its zero line
2011-10-04 17:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2011-10-04 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could be a good thing for the bulls as it would allow another day of short covering
2011-10-04 17:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bad thing about that is that the broadest indication of market activity remains sluggish
2011-10-04 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that makes it vulnerable to news related pushes in prices
2011-10-04 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's had a great day today and are all considered neutral now
2011-10-04 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are also neutral
2011-10-04 17:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain on the "oversold" side
2011-10-04 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no real advantage here
2011-10-04 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we could see another day or two of chop to bring the STVO's up to join the land of the neutral
2011-10-04 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .26
2011-10-04 17:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-10-04 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2011-10-04 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a gain of .20 points
2011-10-04 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .32
2011-10-04 17:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2011-10-04 17:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a gain there of .16
2011-10-04 17:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...talk about whiplash
2011-10-04 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .24
2011-10-04 17:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.03
2011-10-04 17:42:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the Open 10's are back in sync now
2011-10-04 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that we're now likely in our last sell off into what should be a tradable bottom
2011-10-04 17:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2011-10-04 17:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that
2011-10-04 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during final capitulation phases
2011-10-04 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see divergences in the volatility indexes
2011-10-04 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the TRIN's should move to new lows (or highs as the case might be)
2011-10-04 17:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a couple of 2.00 + on the NASDAQ last week
2011-10-04 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a 3.00 and a 5.00 on the NYSE TRIN last week
2011-10-04 17:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything, today provided a quick way for the tide to come rushing back in after pulling out as far as it did last week
2011-10-04 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that's over, we should see more consistency to this data as we move into our expected lows
2011-10-04 17:45:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will the VIX be divergent? I always forget
2011-10-04 17:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-10-04 17:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-10-04 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VIX should diverge
2011-10-04 17:45:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it will be lower then
2011-10-04 17:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-10-04 17:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at a chart
2011-10-04 17:46:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2011-10-04 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not diverging on the VIX
2011-10-04 17:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2011-10-04 17:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: certainly not on the VXV
2011-10-04 17:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VXO looks OK
2011-10-04 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VXN is not diverging here
2011-10-04 17:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that
2011-10-04 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to Elliott for a moment
2011-10-04 17:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my count idea has our finishing wave (X) on 9/16
2011-10-04 17:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now do an A-B-C down
2011-10-04 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be we finished "A" today?
2011-10-04 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then have the volatility indices diverge with C?
2011-10-04 17:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2011-10-04 17:49:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the size of the bump may go on to indicate that-was think it possible
2011-10-04 17:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2011-10-04 17:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think I've ever seen the VIX stay above the 30 level for as long as it has recently
2011-10-04 17:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that may be something different to watch out for
2011-10-04 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be also that being a global market now that rules/guidleines need to be adjusted
2011-10-04 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll watch it and see how it works out
2011-10-04 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2011-10-04 17:51:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I won't lead off-but I'm sure watching the pitches closely
2011-10-04 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the Eliades new TRIN
2011-10-04 17:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .64
2011-10-04 17:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is not at all indicative of a bottom
2011-10-04 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's scary
2011-10-04 17:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the things in which we have to adjust our tools a bit comes with that we no longer have an up tick rule
2011-10-04 17:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this very act can really give us different interpretations when it comes to breadth and volume
2011-10-04 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN for one
2011-10-04 17:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I've been watching the action and reactions to find out whether the guidelines remain valid or not
2011-10-04 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately, I still don't have enough data yet to know for sure...it's only been 3 years
2011-10-04 17:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like decimalization
2011-10-04 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or anything else where the rules have changed
2011-10-04 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-10-04 17:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2011-10-04 17:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is that it's highly unlikely that today was a bottom of any significance
2011-10-04 17:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we still have lower price lows still coming near term
2011-10-04 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll go with that
2011-10-04 17:55:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: futes down 9
2011-10-04 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-10-04 17:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 9?
2011-10-04 17:56:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for your time and knowledge!
2011-10-04 17:56:29 [Message] EricD -> Chat: Thanks
2011-10-04 17:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and fair value is +51
2011-10-04 17:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2011-10-04 17:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see Dow futures down 26
2011-10-04 17:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair value is +51
2011-10-04 17:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the Dow is down 77
2011-10-04 17:57:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I was looking at ES
2011-10-04 17:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have ES -2.3
2011-10-04 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair value at 4.85
2011-10-04 17:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so down 7
2011-10-04 17:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the way the market moves these days
2011-10-04 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it changes in a blink
2011-10-04 17:58:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 1 stick is 5 anymore, LOL
2011-10-04 17:58:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's amazing!
2011-10-04 17:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breath taking
2011-10-04 17:58:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it is
2011-10-04 17:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how anyone can trade futures or options right now I have no idea
2011-10-04 17:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2011-10-04 17:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that
2011-10-04 17:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-10-04 17:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great Wednesday
2011-10-04 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how she looks on Thursday
2011-10-04 17:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same chat time
2011-10-04 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same chat room
2011-10-04 17:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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