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Posts: 4,885
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-10-03 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-10-03 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-10-03 16:01:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, thx, and you?
2013-10-03 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hanging in there!
2013-10-03 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for asking
2013-10-03 16:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-10-03 16:02:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Nice elected officials, LOL
2013-10-03 16:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember...the people made their choices
2013-10-03 16:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: live by the sword....
2013-10-03 16:03:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh man
2013-10-03 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone blinking yet?
2013-10-03 16:04:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not that I saw
2013-10-03 16:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is getting the feeling now that it's going to take a while
2013-10-03 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and see what kind of damage we incurred today
2013-10-03 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving back above its zero line on Tuesday
2013-10-03 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved to new lows today
2013-10-03 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2013-10-03 16:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that the 10% Trend also smashed down and through its zero line as well
2013-10-03 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2013-10-03 16:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM moving to the downside after finding resistance at the +500 level
2013-10-03 16:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would now suggest that we're going to need more time to sort out whatever is bothering the market for now
2013-10-03 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we suggested on Tuesday
2013-10-03 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers finally put their back side into their convictions and have now taken the upper hand on a short term basis
2013-10-03 16:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it too couldn't move above its blip resistance area
2013-10-03 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now back below its zero line
2013-10-03 16:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a -26 reading
2013-10-03 16:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2013-10-03 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it too had a gap lower to the downside today
2013-10-03 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-10-03 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the buyers are able to move back above this newly formed declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern since the September's FED announcement
2013-10-03 16:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now take a more defensive tone toward the market itself
2013-10-03 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no new buying should be considered
2013-10-03 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that we have to be careful of is some sort of longer term correctional sequence
2013-10-03 16:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the NYSE breadth MCSUM made a lower low into the September bottom and the lack of being able to move to challenge the +500 level
2013-10-03 16:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although one day doesn't quite cancel this expectation
2013-10-03 16:16:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls can not allow more than a 2 day wash out and then an abrupt resumption or we could see quite a bit of volatility as the MCSUM moves to challenge its zero line
2013-10-03 16:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: frankly
2013-10-03 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I shared with someone privately earlier today
2013-10-03 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market seemed to be pretty much washed out in the late morning
2013-10-03 16:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is about the time it bottomed
2013-10-03 16:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll have see now whether this was a capitulation day or not
2013-10-03 16:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if not
2013-10-03 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our current blueprint will then have to be reviewed
2013-10-03 16:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the other indices fared
2013-10-03 16:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to new recovery highs over the last couple of days
2013-10-03 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ Composite index closed down 1% today
2013-10-03 16:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the NYSE Composite
2013-10-03 16:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO settled today at the -27 level
2013-10-03 16:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or within spitting distance of the important -25 area where buy spikes can develop
2013-10-03 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a hard reversal then is needed to again provide a watch for this pattern development
2013-10-03 16:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we must also remember
2013-10-03 16:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that until the blip resistance levels are taken out
2013-10-03 16:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there won't be a trigger
2013-10-03 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market will be vulnerable until this is accomplished
2013-10-03 16:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that, as if by magic, the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM curl lower just below the +400 level
2013-10-03 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though this is not a 250 multiple
2013-10-03 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is fascinating to see how we did accomplish this at a "round number"
2013-10-03 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the NDX had also made new recovery price highs on Wednesday
2013-10-03 16:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it closed down a little more than 1% today
2013-10-03 16:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NDX breadth MCO moved sharply lower
2013-10-03 16:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled with a -57 reading
2013-10-03 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's now minimally "oversold"
2013-10-03 16:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note here as well at how the +1000 level was too much resistance for this MCSUM to overcome
2013-10-03 16:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're seeing a lot of round number curls here
2013-10-03 16:25:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rally failure on the SPX breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is now set off a downside projection for prices
2013-10-03 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and eyeballing it
2013-10-03 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like around 1650
2013-10-03 16:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a probable challenge of the August/September lows
2013-10-03 16:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tops beneath tops also control the SPX breadth MCSUM pattern now
2013-10-03 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 5% Trend now joining the MCO and the 10% component below its zero line
2013-10-03 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this index is now on a technical sell signal
2013-10-03 16:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor
2013-10-03 16:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like that the rising bottoms line on the daily chart intersects right at the 1650 level
2013-10-03 16:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is now important support
2013-10-03 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether or not it's key support or not remains to be seen
2013-10-03 16:30:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the weekend breadth chart on the SPX
2013-10-03 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the longer term rising trendline intersects the pattern at around the 1525 level
2013-10-03 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if the bears want to really push things and still remain longer term positive, there's a lot of air play from current levels to this ultimate support area
2013-10-03 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows as well on the OEX breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much locks up the idea of now taking a defensive posture towards the market
2013-10-03 16:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's now likely that it's going to take 2 or 3 weeks to rebuild enough of a foundation to support another rally attempt
2013-10-03 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2013-10-03 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any lower low in prices
2013-10-03 16:32:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MCO holds divergence
2013-10-03 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would also give us something that was missing with the September advance
2013-10-03 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-10-03 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important element of support is the divergent low we saw at the end of August
2013-10-03 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which looks like comes in at around the -95 level on the OEX breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower pattern lows as well on the Dow breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCSUM is about to move down and through its zero line as soon as Friday
2013-10-03 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will actually turn out to be an instructive situation for us
2013-10-03 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is tracing out the same pattern here
2013-10-03 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's about 5-7 trading days away from challenging its zero line
2013-10-03 16:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we get another hard shake out on Friday as we move below the zero line
2013-10-03 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be one of those strong cautionary conditions on what may actually take place once the broader market faces this same obstacle
2013-10-03 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-10-03 16:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we see the Dow finish down tomorrow at around the late August lows
2013-10-03 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be as good as any tip off that we could be in for some sort of high volatility when the exchange itself reaches this same line in the sand
2013-10-03 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to higher highs on Tuesday
2013-10-03 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO fully reversed to the downside
2013-10-03 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now nullified this upside breakout
2013-10-03 16:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have better good uniformity in general market conditions
2013-10-03 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where on Tuesday
2013-10-03 16:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had this split between the secondaries, mid and small caps with the large caps
2013-10-03 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-10-03 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next expectation for the MID breadth MCO is an obligatory snapback to or towards its zero line
2013-10-03 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the "oversold" readings we're seeing in the larger cap indices
2013-10-03 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see this happen as soon as Friday
2013-10-03 16:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bounce being an opportunity to close out any long positions in which have been either profitable or not doing what they were expected to do
2013-10-03 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ouch
2013-10-03 16:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard reversal in the SML breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it settled today with a -38 reading
2013-10-03 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the 10% Trend
2013-10-03 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see a bounce near term as it slightly pierced just below its zero line today
2013-10-03 16:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could, however, given the way we've lurched backwards here
2013-10-03 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this bounce may actually be delayed to allow the 5% to challenge its zero line first
2013-10-03 16:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good couple of days if you're long
2013-10-03 16:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you've been playing the fundamental card
2013-10-03 16:47:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you now have something to work with
2013-10-03 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not all cut and dry as yet
2013-10-03 16:48:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO settled today at the -26 level
2013-10-03 16:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the broader market indices are all very much in sync here
2013-10-03 16:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's great news for those who like play intraday movements in the market
2013-10-03 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where longs are now hit and run affairs
2013-10-03 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and shorts can now be extended in their holding over multiple days
2013-10-03 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the sectors are doing
2013-10-03 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a classic zero line snapback after a downside violation as we moved to lower lows on the XLY breadth MCO today
2013-10-03 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the daily XLY breadth MCSUM has also curled over to the downside as well
2013-10-03 16:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today
2013-10-03 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we now have an intermediate term sell there
2013-10-03 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to join the earlier short term sell of earlier this week
2013-10-03 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break of last weeks lows in the XLP breadth MCO will then allow prices to break below their trading range support line of 39 on the price chart
2013-10-03 16:53:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now...the XLP has little going for it
2013-10-03 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a second zero line challenge failed again on the XLE breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to see the XLE breadth MCSUM chopping its way lower because of this
2013-10-03 16:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the price trend remains higher for now
2013-10-03 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it remains overall neutral internally
2013-10-03 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a lower low today in the XLF breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this pretty much takes care of any bullish outcomes for the time being
2013-10-03 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-10-03 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a challenge of the 19 level is indicated
2013-10-03 16:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard reversal as well on the XLV breadth MCO
2013-10-03 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it does remain above the near term lows seen last week
2013-10-03 16:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a test of the 49 level is needed
2013-10-03 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like many of the charts tonight
2013-10-03 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that our upside momentum has been erased
2013-10-03 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't have enough of a negative push as yet to take out the bear claws either
2013-10-03 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, to be sure, we're now getting indications of a technical breakdowns
2013-10-03 16:59:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a complete collapse in the XLI breadth MCO
2013-10-03 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news there is that the XLI breadth MCSUM is still above the +1000 level
2013-10-03 17:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the MCO below its zero line
2013-10-03 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM above
2013-10-03 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best we're likely to see is a sideways correctional sequence
2013-10-03 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should help maintain any further Dow Industrial and Transport weakness that we might see over the short term
2013-10-03 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO and its components continue to look weak here
2013-10-03 17:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLB breadth MCSUM leaving behind a couple of momentum double tops
2013-10-03 17:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't bode well for the materials/metals arena
2013-10-03 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-10-03 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last couple of days of gold volatility is a bad omen for this asset class
2013-10-03 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we could see quite a hit there at anytime
2013-10-03 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like an irregular heart beat before it goes into an attack
2013-10-03 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO is now "oversold" with a -76 reading
2013-10-03 17:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it took out its small area of August divergence in the process
2013-10-03 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO is hanging in there
2013-10-03 17:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLU itself moves deeper into the apex of a classic symmetrical triangle pattern
2013-10-03 17:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: support at 36.50
2013-10-03 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: resistance at 38.25
2013-10-03 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any close below or above these two areas, with increasing volume, would support a piggy back ride
2013-10-03 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-03 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately for the bulls
2013-10-03 17:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have many of the breadth MCSUM's above their zero lines
2013-10-03 17:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with some nicely above the +500 level
2013-10-03 17:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2013-10-03 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the broader market breadth MCSUM's are curling lower pretty much below this same important demarcation level
2013-10-03 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our not being able to drive the market forward enough to take out the blip resistance levels we talked about on Tuesday
2013-10-03 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would now seem that we're going to have to take a little more time in sorting out our technical problems
2013-10-03 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a more defensive positron should be taken towards the market itself
2013-10-03 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the BETS...but I'm sure it's back to a "protective bearish stops below market" signal
2013-10-03 17:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my my
2013-10-03 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +20
2013-10-03 17:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: position
2013-10-03 17:12:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that was fast
2013-10-03 17:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NYAD and the NAAD moved back below their 19 day EMA's today
2013-10-03 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we lost another 2 as well that were in bullish configurations up until today
2013-10-03 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, we shouldn't be too surprised I guess given the hard stop and reverses we've seen today in some of the MCO's
2013-10-03 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and you can trash the "long and strong" on the SML [frown]
2013-10-03 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fortunately though
2013-10-03 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only a 1% loss
2013-10-03 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the potential now is for greater losses
2013-10-03 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume McClellan's did today
2013-10-03 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, this good news
2013-10-03 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did not move to lower lows today in the NYsE CO volume MCO
2013-10-03 17:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there wasn't a lot of downside volume with today's breakdown
2013-10-03 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the composite did
2013-10-03 17:15:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's funny, I had FFIV and WAG long-and they both gapped up to highs to let me out-which I sorely wanted. Very polite of them, LOL
2013-10-03 17:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: diverging as well
2013-10-03 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice indeed
2013-10-03 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then
2013-10-03 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth of market is looking weaker here
2013-10-03 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the scope of selling was more subdued than what it was after Friday's sell off
2013-10-03 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be an indication of those who would be labeled "the weak hands" got tired of waiting and capitulated today
2013-10-03 17:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the rest of the indices did
2013-10-03 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2013-10-03 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2013-10-03 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we see here that any further correction will tend to be narrow in scope
2013-10-03 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have both the MCO and its components on either side of their zero lines
2013-10-03 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2013-10-03 17:18:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the NASDAQ volume MCSUM still well above the +1000 level
2013-10-03 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would indicate that any open longs in the secondaries can be given some additional rope in deciding whether to close those positions or not
2013-10-03 17:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we'll probably see that the large caps will be a different strategy
2013-10-03 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2013-10-03 17:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM wasn't able to move above the +1250 level as we had hoped on Tuesday
2013-10-03 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it peaked out at +1230
2013-10-03 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll look for the obligatory snapback towards the zero line on the NDX volume MCO now
2013-10-03 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how the MCSUM pattern reacts as we move closer to the +1000 level
2013-10-03 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any selling in the growth sector will tend to be muted overall
2013-10-03 17:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: diverging so far on the SPX volume MCO
2013-10-03 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the breadth side of the equation
2013-10-03 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers will really need to get the volume side moving in sync in order for them to have any chance to develop a trend
2013-10-03 17:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a somewhat important day tomorrow
2013-10-03 17:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too bad we won't have the Jobs number to kick around
2013-10-03 17:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2013-10-03 17:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the OEX volume MCO is diverging here
2013-10-03 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the OEX volume MCSUM remains above its zero line
2013-10-03 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will continue to help cushion any blows that might hit the marketplace over the next couple of sessions
2013-10-03 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2013-10-03 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will keep any further declines from getting away the bulls
2013-10-03 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will change, of course, as more and more MCSUM challenge and then move down and through their zero lines
2013-10-03 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well
2013-10-03 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pick a side here
2013-10-03 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Dow volume MCSUM also has the possibility of moving below its zero line on Friday
2013-10-03 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this will not likely happen until we see the Dow volume MCO move to lower lows
2013-10-03 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it does move to lower lows
2013-10-03 17:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will then provide the momentum to see the MCSUM break its zero line
2013-10-03 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we have a momentum rush
2013-10-03 17:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could very see a hard down day in the Dow
2013-10-03 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as always
2013-10-03 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything must work together in order to reach a desired goal
2013-10-03 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whether it's on the buy side
2013-10-03 17:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the sell side
2013-10-03 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the dynamics remain the same
2013-10-03 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then after saying all that
2013-10-03 17:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the MID volume MCO did move to lower lows
2013-10-03 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty well confirms a short term top in prices
2013-10-03 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least for the MID
2013-10-03 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern
2013-10-03 17:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wouldn't be too surprising if we see a retracement all the way back to the 1200 level now
2013-10-03 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is within this ongoing larger trading range that we talked about as long ago as the early summer
2013-10-03 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also that the double top formation left behind on the MID volume MCO will be the ultimate challenge now for the bulls if they are to break after this current rough patch
2013-10-03 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard reversal on the SML volume MCO
2013-10-03 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for whatever reason
2013-10-03 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the character of the market showed an abrupt change today
2013-10-03 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would probably think that it may have to do with Washington
2013-10-03 17:32:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it might
2013-10-03 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if the international data shows something else this weekend
2013-10-03 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the weekly breadth charts should prove insightful this coming weekend
2013-10-03 17:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like its breadth cousin
2013-10-03 17:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a zero line snapback and failure on the TM volume MCO
2013-10-03 17:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has provided us with another curl lower right at where we found resistance last month on the TM volume MCSUM
2013-10-03 17:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-03 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our blueprint of the last 2 plus months has now been broken
2013-10-03 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's still a little early to get a road map on what we're likely up against moving forward
2013-10-03 17:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that is a bit of a problem is that we didn't get the timing of this advance to extend into the mid October period as the McClellan's suggested
2013-10-03 17:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2013-10-03 17:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we never had the kind of leadership that we like to see in the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM either
2013-10-03 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the evidence is such that it's not a prudent strategy to look for anything long for a couple of weeks now
2013-10-03 17:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume oscillators look
2013-10-03 17:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a mixed bag with the CVI's
2013-10-03 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are mixed as well...some neutral, some "oversold"
2013-10-03 17:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are now breaking down
2013-10-03 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not supportive of a trend
2013-10-03 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.24
2013-10-03 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.36
2013-10-03 17:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the weak hands are in the process of giving up
2013-10-03 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see divergence in the Open 10 on any further price decline
2013-10-03 17:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the high reading in the Open 10 as well is going to keep things from falling apart as well
2013-10-03 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have seen over the last couple of days
2013-10-03 17:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't mean that it can't be in stops and starts
2013-10-03 17:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.29
2013-10-03 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2013-10-03 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now going to need to get the NASDAQ to "oversold" levels before we'll have any chance of turning
2013-10-03 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.21
2013-10-03 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2013-10-03 17:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in need of a purge
2013-10-03 17:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-10-03 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good day for the bulls
2013-10-03 17:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they had their proverbial carpet taken out from under them in the areas in which they had support
2013-10-03 17:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the whole market is starting to sag
2013-10-03 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2013-10-03 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't have enough evidence for a change in trend from up to down
2013-10-03 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have inconsistencies between the short term and intermediate term trends of money flow
2013-10-03 17:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NYSE Open 10 still deeply "oversold" here
2013-10-03 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of any sell off will tend to be choppy and somewhat manageable for now
2013-10-03 17:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the caveat, of course, is our old friend "emotion"
2013-10-03 17:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's lots of that right now
2013-10-03 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being stirred up by the usual suspects both in and out of the markets
2013-10-03 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...for now
2013-10-03 17:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the best course of action is to go to neutral
2013-10-03 17:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sit on our hands
2013-10-03 17:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wait for additional information
2013-10-03 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2013-10-03 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait for some sort of balance to move back into the market so that we can get a better rhythm between the major market indices to work with
2013-10-03 17:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-10-03 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing we can say is that the sellers stepped up when they had to yesterday and today
2013-10-03 17:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if this time will be different and the bears can actually run with the ball
2013-10-03 17:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or will they again lose their convictions and fumble away their possession
2013-10-03 17:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the futures
2013-10-03 17:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nervous and flat
2013-10-03 17:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else?
2013-10-03 17:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough market here
2013-10-03 17:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always is when you have lots of emotion
2013-10-03 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-10-03 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2013-10-03 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please note that the October chat schedule is now up
2013-10-03 17:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things go over the weekend
2013-10-03 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great one
2013-10-03 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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