All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-10-30 16:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-10-30 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-10-30 16:00:56 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: great...and you?
2014-10-30 16:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't complain...for if I did...blah, blah, blah [smile]
2014-10-30 16:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-10-30 16:03:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Is it time buying on dips? [smile]
2014-10-30 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what dips?
2014-10-30 16:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-30 16:03:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Funny
2014-10-30 16:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this thing is steam rolling over everyone whose waiting for a pull back or a resumption to the downside
2014-10-30 16:04:10 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: guilty
2014-10-30 16:04:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Intra day then
2014-10-30 16:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the problem with waiting
2014-10-30 16:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCO moves to higher highs as it did on Tuesday
2014-10-30 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this instructed us that this isn't any normal rally
2014-10-30 16:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-10-30 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will only see intraday pauses
2014-10-30 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with very shallow pullbacks
2014-10-30 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as each breadth MCSUM moves back above the zero line
2014-10-30 16:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of this happening decrease in both their availablity and dynamic
2014-10-30 16:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will always be an excuse to wait
2014-10-30 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important to react when a trigger is given instead of trying to get cute on the entry (or exit)
2014-10-30 16:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-10-30 16:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many like to try to wait until their price is hit before they move into the market
2014-10-30 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after 40 years experience doing this
2014-10-30 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I no longer apply buy or sell stops
2014-10-30 16:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything with me is at market
2014-10-30 16:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because in the bigger picture
2014-10-30 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a dollar here or there is not going to matter if the timing of the trade is a good one
2014-10-30 16:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it keeps you from chasing or making an emotional mistake
2014-10-30 16:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good example here has been with the gold stocks shorts of the last week
2014-10-30 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...if I would had waited another day to jump back on after getting out a week ago Monday
2014-10-30 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would had lost on a 45% gain in the last 2 days!
2014-10-30 16:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would had been maybe 20% [smile]
2014-10-30 16:09:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so discipline is important
2014-10-30 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as the set up is still there
2014-10-30 16:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it meets your criteria
2014-10-30 16:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why wait or try to ink out a point or two?
2014-10-30 16:09:51 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right thanks for the heads up.. What are you trading in gold?
2014-10-30 16:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's in my fun account
2014-10-30 16:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: JDST
2014-10-30 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up something like 27% today
2014-10-30 16:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't suggest this to anyone
2014-10-30 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of those "don't try this at home" trades
2014-10-30 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...it was up 26%
2014-10-30 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [frown]
2014-10-30 16:11:45 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Too funny!
2014-10-30 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes you get lucky
2014-10-30 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we talked about how the metals were just itching for a collapse for the last couple of weeks
2014-10-30 16:12:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact.
2014-10-30 16:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remarked about this on Tuesday
2014-10-30 16:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-10-30 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving slightly lower on Wednesday
2014-10-30 16:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved higher again today
2014-10-30 16:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to support a series of bottoms above bottoms in its near term structure
2014-10-30 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this constant feeding of fuel coming into the market
2014-10-30 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is now starting to even out control between the sellers and the buyers on an intermediate term basis
2014-10-30 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now at the -274 level
2014-10-30 16:16:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and within range of its next natural area of resistance at the -250 level
2014-10-30 16:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-10-30 16:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the continued strength we're seeing here
2014-10-30 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect this MCSUM to plow through the -250 level with relative ease
2014-10-30 16:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the next stop at the zero line
2014-10-30 16:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is slightly below the declining tops line connecting the July and September highs
2014-10-30 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any break above these 2 levels of resistance will have to be quite powerful to do so
2014-10-30 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2014-10-30 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would expect at least some hesitation in and around this area initially before attempting to blow through this same overhead resistance area
2014-10-30 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break above this level then would be a highly bullish event
2014-10-30 16:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leading to this MCSUM continuing to move up and toward the +500 level
2014-10-30 16:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the same structure of tops above tops and bottoms above bottoms with the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-10-30 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is now less than 2 days away from reaching its zero line with a -90 reading
2014-10-30 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the CO MCO
2014-10-30 16:22:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that this current strength continues to hold on in highly "overbought" territory
2014-10-30 16:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should look for any near term surprises to be that of the bullish kind for the next couple of days
2014-10-30 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price chart itself
2014-10-30 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we finally broke above the early October congestion point today
2014-10-30 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so price is about 2 trading days behind on what money is suggesting to be the actual case
2014-10-30 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting ruler to monitor
2014-10-30 16:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the declining tops line controlling the NYSE Composite pattern intersects at just below the +250 level
2014-10-30 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with our proximity as close as it is with the MCO showing a continued heavy foot on the accelerator pedal
2014-10-30 16:25:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very likely that we will move up and through the MCSUM zero line by early next week
2014-10-30 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and find our next reasonable resting point at this same declining tops line on the MCSUM
2014-10-30 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms continue on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-10-30 16:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NASDAQ Composite index has now reached its first price target of the highs of September
2014-10-30 16:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now that the MCO moved to higher highs on Tuesday
2014-10-30 16:27:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have very little problem moving above these highs...and staying there
2014-10-30 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM declining tops line on the NASDAQ crosses at about the -200 level
2014-10-30 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current reading at -339
2014-10-30 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't see a challenge until Tuesday of next week
2014-10-30 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless, of course, we get a new fresh wave of money moving in that would push this, and all of the breadth MCO's. to new highs near term
2014-10-30 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is always possible as more and more traders want to participate
2014-10-30 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2014-10-30 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's end of month on Friday
2014-10-30 16:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for a fund head
2014-10-30 16:30:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always good to show that you were in the market during this advance...even if it's for a one day snapshot
2014-10-30 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-10-30 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also had a higher reading today after finding support at Monday's low point
2014-10-30 16:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we mentioned on Tuesday
2014-10-30 16:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM is already in positive territory now
2014-10-30 16:32:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our expectation of a pause at these new recovery highs was to be expected
2014-10-30 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price bars of the last two days
2014-10-30 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that they show a simple high level consolidation at this time
2014-10-30 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it we should see a resumption to the upside as soon as Friday
2014-10-30 16:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here was a good issue worth an accumulation
2014-10-30 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (speaking earlier of pullbacks and other entry points)
2014-10-30 16:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some may ask
2014-10-30 16:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would this be a bullish high level consolidation?
2014-10-30 16:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the close up 21 day chart
2014-10-30 16:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see two things
2014-10-30 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first is that although we closed lower than Tuesday
2014-10-30 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did close today higher than Wednesday
2014-10-30 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly is that the intraday lows have been higher over the last 2 days compared with the recovery high close of Tuesday
2014-10-30 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning...
2014-10-30 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are solid bids under current price levels
2014-10-30 16:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there isn't enough sellers to break this valuation
2014-10-30 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also a good way for those who look at the cup being half empty to keep them out of the market when the Dow is up over 200 points
2014-10-30 16:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as bull markets don't like company
2014-10-30 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-10-30 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was our expectation from Tuesday to see the OEX and Dow continue to play catch up to the troops
2014-10-30 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can thank Visa's 10% gain for that
2014-10-30 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2014-10-30 16:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Visa wouldn't be up 10% if the market didn't think that there was going to be a lot of buying using their card over the next couple of months
2014-10-30 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "whispers"
2014-10-30 16:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in this case...more like a sledgehammer
2014-10-30 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-30 16:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX
2014-10-30 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it has now rallied almost 180 points intraday from the 10/15 lows
2014-10-30 16:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a gain of about 10%
2014-10-30 16:40:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not bad...in 10 trading days no less
2014-10-30 16:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who says the market only goes down by large amounts?
2014-10-30 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the SPX breadth MCSUM is back above its zero line now
2014-10-30 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the buyers have control again on an intermediate term basis
2014-10-30 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 10% Trend component, however, and we see that it's flirting with the +200 level
2014-10-30 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually leads to some sort of slow down in the way the fuel is being consumed
2014-10-30 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX chart pattern also moved above its price resistance today
2014-10-30 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the OEX breadth MCSUM is now in its 3rd day above its zero line
2014-10-30 16:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current reading at +200
2014-10-30 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there shouldn't be too much of a problem moving above the +250 level as soon as tomorrow
2014-10-30 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the declining tops line there at about the +650 level
2014-10-30 16:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's look for a minimal move to the +500 level
2014-10-30 16:46:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very nice day for the Dow
2014-10-30 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only because it's now within range of its all time high close
2014-10-30 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Dow breadth MCO moved to a higher high today and this helps to confirm those who do have control of the action (the buyers) after the Dow breadth MCSUM only yesterday moved back above its zero line
2014-10-30 16:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2014-10-30 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM moves on either side of its zero line
2014-10-30 16:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should always expect some sort of fireworks in prices as the balance of power moves from one side to the other
2014-10-30 16:48:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Spooky good call on the DOW last session
2014-10-30 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2014-10-30 16:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2014-10-30 16:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have a small point change this evening
2014-10-30 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's some near term indecision on which direction to go
2014-10-30 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-10-30 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that today's small point change was still able to allow the MID breadth MCSUM to punch back above its zero line
2014-10-30 16:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would expect that any unwinding of this near term tension on the MID tape is likely to be a bullish one
2014-10-30 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do get that follow through
2014-10-30 16:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there doesn't seem to be any real resistance until we move up to the MCSUM declining tops line
2014-10-30 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which just so happens to intersect at the +500 level
2014-10-30 16:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +500 level being the point in which there has been enough thrust to counter the bear market default and allow prices to move more freely to the upside
2014-10-30 16:52:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we call reaching: escape velocity
2014-10-30 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...this is at least a week away from happening
2014-10-30 16:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no big rush
2014-10-30 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML is now approaching its first price target of the 675 level
2014-10-30 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with our being able to maintain our acceleration here (as measured by the MCO)
2014-10-30 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be able to punch easily through this level
2014-10-30 16:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will likely co-ordinate with the SML breadth MCSUM moving up and through its zero line
2014-10-30 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...looking at the data
2014-10-30 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will occur as soon as Friday
2014-10-30 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-10-30 16:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't have too much of a problem reaching the all time price highs on this pattern sequence
2014-10-30 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2014-10-30 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the SML breadth MCSUM settled today right at the declining tops line on the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-10-30 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we mentioned earlier
2014-10-30 16:56:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we have two levels of resistance that needs to be broken
2014-10-30 16:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes quite a bit of a "statement" to break above such levels
2014-10-30 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so look for a high volume, highly volatile move in the SML index by Monday
2014-10-30 16:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO also had a small pullback on Wednesday
2014-10-30 16:58:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and found support at its previous high point on the chart
2014-10-30 16:58:39 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Sorry Fib I don't see the declining MCSUM tops in SML
2014-10-30 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any near term upside follow through then would allow the TM breadth MCSUM to move above both the declining tops line and the MCSUM zero line without too much of a problem
2014-10-30 16:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mike - the declining tops connect the July and September highs in the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-10-30 17:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see it?
2014-10-30 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important structural level here though
2014-10-30 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it being able to take out the September highs
2014-10-30 17:00:46 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes now I do thanks
2014-10-30 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where this was the roll over point that produced the "crash like event" we saw earlier this month as the MCSUM moved down and through its zero line
2014-10-30 17:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: triggering the "Summation Failure"
2014-10-30 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-30 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals continue to suggest that money is moving in a brisk pace
2014-10-30 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no signs as yet to leveling off
2014-10-30 17:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have both the MID and SML breadth MCSUM's moving above their respected zero lines
2014-10-30 17:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should help the broad market to a more favorable outlook
2014-10-30 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would like to say that slow and sure wins the race
2014-10-30 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would seem that the market has its own definition of how the race should be run right now and we should respect that for what it implies
2014-10-30 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the McClellan Sector breadth charts
2014-10-30 17:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the XLY breadth MCSUM is about to move up and through its zero line
2014-10-30 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know what caused the intraday spike today in prices though
2014-10-30 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2014-10-30 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like bad data during the 1:00 hour
2014-10-30 17:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that should eventually be adjusted
2014-10-30 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP continues to get stronger right now
2014-10-30 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we closed at new all time price highs today
2014-10-30 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a higher XLP breadth MCO confirming the move
2014-10-30 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the XLP breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2014-10-30 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this basket of stocks is now on a strong buy
2014-10-30 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals on the XLE continue to look very weak here
2014-10-30 17:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as prices continue to try to consolidate at present levels
2014-10-30 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the XLE breadth components
2014-10-30 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're still having their issues moving back above their zero lines
2014-10-30 17:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2014-10-30 17:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lack of upside post expansion in the XLE breadth MCSUM strongly suggests that the buyers have a very weak hand here
2014-10-30 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that we're at just above natural resistance at the -1500 level
2014-10-30 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break in prices to the downside below the 83 level would be a comfortable short
2014-10-30 17:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the short term objective of challenging the mid October lows
2014-10-30 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF continues to be very strong here
2014-10-30 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money continues to overwhelm the sellers
2014-10-30 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the XLP
2014-10-30 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM also moved above "escape velocity" today with a +537 reading
2014-10-30 17:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see higher price highs in the not too distant future there
2014-10-30 17:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first target $25
2014-10-30 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much...but above that it gets interesting
2014-10-30 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still liking MS as a turnaround play with Europe
2014-10-30 17:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now a double since our first mention of this issue
2014-10-30 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV is on fire
2014-10-30 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving easily to new all time price highs today
2014-10-30 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up almost 2% in this effort
2014-10-30 17:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a higher high in the XLV breadth MCO as well confirming the move
2014-10-30 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up an astounding 12% since the mid October lows
2014-10-30 17:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2014-10-30 17:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the chart pattern of the XLI makes it very clear as to the current direction of prices
2014-10-30 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with any further strength near term
2014-10-30 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should be enough to push the XLI breadth MCSUM back above its zero line
2014-10-30 17:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2014-10-30 17:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time price highs in the XLI are likely
2014-10-30 17:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as
2014-10-30 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow Industrials and Transports
2014-10-30 17:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...
2014-10-30 17:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looked at the Dow Utilities
2014-10-30 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 2.10% in ONE day!!!!!!
2014-10-30 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you really do have to move long here
2014-10-30 17:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market seems to be working on something historic
2014-10-30 17:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO remains weak
2014-10-30 17:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bottom below a bottom in its pattern
2014-10-30 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that the metals are finally collapsing to fill the vacuum created with the rally in early October
2014-10-30 17:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising to see this weakness continue for a while longer
2014-10-30 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the XLK breadth MCO
2014-10-30 17:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're reading how this sector wasn't participating today
2014-10-30 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile the XLK closed at higher price highs
2014-10-30 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem with trading
2014-10-30 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that you sometimes look for what will agree with your opinion
2014-10-30 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while ignoring the underlying monetary dynamic
2014-10-30 17:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-10-30 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLK breadth MCSUM moving nicely above its zero line now
2014-10-30 17:23:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any real surprises there will rest with the longs
2014-10-30 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new all time high close today in the XLU
2014-10-30 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLU breadth MCSUM moving sharply above the +1250 level today with these new highs
2014-10-30 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect money to continue to move into this sector short term
2014-10-30 17:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look at the +1500 level
2014-10-30 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-10-30 17:25:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to see more and more improvement and participation each week
2014-10-30 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with several sectors back above their MCSUM zero lines
2014-10-30 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be easier for prices to not only hold their buoyancy
2014-10-30 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with any kind of buying surge
2014-10-30 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will then be able to move higher with greater and greater amplitude
2014-10-30 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: case example...the XLU
2014-10-30 17:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we had a sharper pullback from the recent highs in the XLU breadth MCO
2014-10-30 17:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it only took a shift back to the buy side to accelerate prices to the upside
2014-10-30 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how breadth dynamics can help to benefit not only your trading
2014-10-30 17:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also your expectation of what is likely to take place even before it happens
2014-10-30 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is great to know
2014-10-30 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if the pattern fails to meet these kinds of technical expectations
2014-10-30 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then is a warning flag that something else might be going on that would need your attention
2014-10-30 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the very least...
2014-10-30 17:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it keeps you honest and away from being complacent
2014-10-30 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2014-10-30 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain highly "overbought"
2014-10-30 17:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it looks like now that we won't see a longer period of digestion until we get the VTO's to "overbought" as well
2014-10-30 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today being the Thursday before the end of the month
2014-10-30 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that it's likely that we won't see this kind of digestion until the later part of next week
2014-10-30 17:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which just so happens to time well with the jobs report
2014-10-30 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.02
2014-10-30 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at .98
2014-10-30 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no longer "oversold"
2014-10-30 17:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: huh?
2014-10-30 17:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.54?
2014-10-30 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems like some heavier weighted index issues took it on the chin today
2014-10-30 17:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still at .81
2014-10-30 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so knocking on the door of being minimally "overbought"
2014-10-30 17:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 1.54 reading though
2014-10-30 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be an indication that we're in a position to "correct on the fly" now
2014-10-30 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the typical way a strong uptrend is able to shake the tree of weak hands as it continues to rise
2014-10-30 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.32
2014-10-30 17:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2014-10-30 17:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call that neutral for now
2014-10-30 17:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-30 17:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not "foaming at the mouth" as yet
2014-10-30 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the NASDAQ continues to come in with some numbers above 1.50 over the next couple of days
2014-10-30 17:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should be enough of a relief for prices to continue on their merry way
2014-10-30 17:35:22 [Message] mojave -> Chat: re: 1.54, possibly due to aapl. msft, fb, sox all down
2014-10-30 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2014-10-30 17:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's first look at the global markets
2014-10-30 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Austria is very weak here
2014-10-30 17:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something must be going on there not mentioned in the press
2014-10-30 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Brazil as well
2014-10-30 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Europe still looks like its down an average of 20%
2014-10-30 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: France is weak
2014-10-30 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must be a recession in Europe
2014-10-30 17:39:36 [Message] mojave -> Chat: commodities slow down (ore, etc) Oz particularly (tied to china)
2014-10-30 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2014-10-30 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: been watching that in the Aussie A/D line of late
2014-10-30 17:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: South Africa has a decent chart pattern
2014-10-30 17:40:51 [Message] dand64 -> Chat: Could it be their (Europe's) quantitative easing is going into our stock market with the rising dollar boosting Europeans' returns?
2014-10-30 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both Europe and Asia are really heavy here
2014-10-30 17:41:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2014-10-30 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter what people say
2014-10-30 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dollar (and it's investments) is still the "go to" safe haven
2014-10-30 17:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's something going on in Europe
2014-10-30 17:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you consider that the price of crude is also down 20%
2014-10-30 17:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has provided no help
2014-10-30 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...one thing's for sure
2014-10-30 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the US markets are like an island in a sea of red right now
2014-10-30 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is a problem
2014-10-30 17:44:08 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: My Barron's overseas charts show most of Europe doing well of late what are you using?
2014-10-30 17:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: daily data
2014-10-30 17:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apply a 20 day, 50 day and 200 day EMA and you will see that though they may be rising in sympathy
2014-10-30 17:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in no way, shape or form are the chart patterns to be construed as being positive
2014-10-30 17:45:17 [Message] mojave -> Chat: I thought that was WHY the US was doing well - "go to" market, safe haven
2014-10-30 17:45:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Looking at them that way you are right just goes to show
2014-10-30 17:45:52 [Message] mojave -> Chat: money flows into US
2014-10-30 17:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-10-30 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Biotech continuing to lead to the upside from our May buy point
2014-10-30 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XBI
2014-10-30 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: China continues to be buoyant here
2014-10-30 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing as yet to get excited over
2014-10-30 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities are still in the toilet
2014-10-30 17:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 19% since July
2014-10-30 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: non cyclical issues are doing well
2014-10-30 17:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Euro continues to get trashed
2014-10-30 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't seen anything like this since the Yen in the 80's
2014-10-30 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: losing almost 10% of its value in 4 months
2014-10-30 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time to go to Europe! [smile]
2014-10-30 17:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dividend stocks are flying
2014-10-30 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the energy sector looks terrible
2014-10-30 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: haven't seen weakness like this since the 2007 top
2014-10-30 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold looks to be collapsing now
2014-10-30 17:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when the FED says "no mas"
2014-10-30 17:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: health care is shining
2014-10-30 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: home builders and construction remain lethargic
2014-10-30 17:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: natural resources down 20%
2014-10-30 17:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no wonder Canada and Australia have been hit over the last month
2014-10-30 17:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: retail meandering sideways
2014-10-30 17:53:09 [Message] mojave -> Chat: & Brazil
2014-10-30 17:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2014-10-30 17:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the semi's are playing a great game of EMA tag right now
2014-10-30 17:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also generated a new Semi BPI buy signal over the weekend
2014-10-30 17:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they should lead the tech charge to the upside short term
2014-10-30 17:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silver is now at its lowest levels since 2010
2014-10-30 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to be honest here
2014-10-30 17:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after looking at these charts
2014-10-30 17:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you wonder how the US market is able to rally
2014-10-30 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the data doesn't lie
2014-10-30 17:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have to believe in your data
2014-10-30 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let the answers come later on
2014-10-30 17:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sharp rally in rates over the last week
2014-10-30 17:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line continues to make higher highs
2014-10-30 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is but a blip on the larger radar
2014-10-30 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: insurance is doing well
2014-10-30 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...MasterCard up 10% as well today
2014-10-30 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about it
2014-10-30 17:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing much happening outside the US
2014-10-30 17:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's be a bit careful here by keeping our emotions in check
2014-10-30 17:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let the market continue to prove itself as to its worth
2014-10-30 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-10-30 18:00:04 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Not here and thanks again for all the information
2014-10-30 18:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NIKKEI up 1% at the open
2014-10-30 18:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure nuff
2014-10-30 18:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the market speaks, I will be its mouthpiece! [smile]
2014-10-30 18:00:47 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-30 18:00:49 [Message] mojave -> Chat: noticed V was good for 140 Dow pts today, didn't even look to check whether MA was in Dow...
2014-10-30 18:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-30 18:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to love the market comments of late
2014-10-30 18:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people are confused
2014-10-30 18:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ideally
2014-10-30 18:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have had some sort of pause here
2014-10-30 18:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but every time we try to
2014-10-30 18:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market immediately recovers
2014-10-30 18:02:09 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: sure have so much to learn I'm reviewing at little bit each day
2014-10-30 18:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO's are really strong here
2014-10-30 18:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still learn myself every single day
2014-10-30 18:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's how I look at the market
2014-10-30 18:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every structural price sequence is like a snowflake
2014-10-30 18:02:45 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: sinking in slowly
2014-10-30 18:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may look familiar or the same
2014-10-30 18:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but each one is unique
2014-10-30 18:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: takes time
2014-10-30 18:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once you see things happen over and over again
2014-10-30 18:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you start to catch on
2014-10-30 18:03:21 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: right
2014-10-30 18:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if you're making money doing so [biggrin]
2014-10-30 18:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2014-10-30 18:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-10-30 18:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-10-30 18:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again next month
2014-10-30 18:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-10-30 18:04:27 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night All

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch