All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,528
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-10-30 19:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-10-30 19:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-10-30 19:01:28 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Good, thx.
2008-10-30 19:01:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: good evening
2008-10-30 19:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-10-30 19:03:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: strong internals today
2008-10-30 19:03:11 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Does exceeding the prior MCO give us a higher target for the completion of 4?
2008-10-30 19:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...nice day...we probably took out last weeks highs on the MCO
2008-10-30 19:03:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: small caps were rockin today
2008-10-30 19:03:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we did, we took out mco's on everything
2008-10-30 19:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in a way Lew - I'll try to address this as we move along
2008-10-30 19:04:05 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thx
2008-10-30 19:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good...we're beginning to get some sort of stability now
2008-10-30 19:05:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: GDP numbers just terrible....and market liked it
2008-10-30 19:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: GDP are "rear view" figures...the market has already discounted these same figures a couple of months ago
2008-10-30 19:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wait till you see 4th quarter
2008-10-30 19:06:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 4th quarter going to be awful
2008-10-30 19:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: next to the jobs data, and the LEI, it's the slowest to indicate economic activity
2008-10-30 19:07:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: jobs data is the slowest?
2008-10-30 19:07:11 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Don't think market has discounted 4Q just yet
2008-10-30 19:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I would be zoning in on is the productivity figures out next Thursday
2008-10-30 19:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're in the 4th quarter now, and a lot of money has vanished
2008-10-30 19:07:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave? jobs is slowest or fastest?
2008-10-30 19:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: slowest
2008-10-30 19:07:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: really
2008-10-30 19:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by about 2 years
2008-10-30 19:07:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wow
2008-10-30 19:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in a matter of speaking
2008-10-30 19:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you watch the rate of inflation, and then offset it by about 2 years, you will know the jobs situation in the current time
2008-10-30 19:08:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thought in a crisis like this, that first people had to lose their jobs before the couldn't pay mortgage, credit card bills, and other types of spending
2008-10-30 19:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: inflation started moving higher in 2006
2008-10-30 19:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more in the macro economic area
2008-10-30 19:08:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ah
2008-10-30 19:09:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-10-30 19:09:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so its leading in the micro
2008-10-30 19:09:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: lagging in the macro
2008-10-30 19:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it all starts with gold
2008-10-30 19:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the direction of gold's price will dictate the future course of events
2008-10-30 19:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the most important indicator of economic activity is gold...the only hard asset out there
2008-10-30 19:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to your thought
2008-10-30 19:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not that employees are losing their jobs, its that employees can no longer afford them
2008-10-30 19:11:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this either happens because of expansion, or the contraction that happens later on
2008-10-30 19:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: expansion meaning the higher cost of borrowing to run the business
2008-10-30 19:12:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: weird to think of expansion that way
2008-10-30 19:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: contraction meaning that business conditions slow enough where these same employees are no longer needed
2008-10-30 19:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the FED controls the economy, not the President
2008-10-30 19:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though the President always seems to get the credit
2008-10-30 19:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: actually, if you think about, the President of the United States doesn't have too much in the way of power
2008-10-30 19:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the important areas that he does have control is being "Commander in Chief" of the military and appointing Federal Judges
2008-10-30 19:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything else is just a figure head
2008-10-30 19:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's no further comments, let's get DP up and see how the market is doing
2008-10-30 19:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved strongly higher today, and has now left us with the probability of bull divergence in place
2008-10-30 19:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the key now is with the components, and taking our line of vision there, we do note the the 10% component is now above it's 5% giving us a cross over buy signal
2008-10-30 19:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but both components remain far below their zero lines
2008-10-30 19:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, in this respect, the bulls have been able to first slow the rate of decay of the A/D line, and have added to this by being able to punch forward in this new direction
2008-10-30 19:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: reasonably, this was going to happen sooner or later given the very high extremes on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-10-30 19:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now this indicator has turned higher
2008-10-30 19:19:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wave question (can't promise its the last of the evening) is this typical of minute wave 4 action, or typical of minor 4 action?
2008-10-30 19:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our first level of resistance now on the MCSUM will be the small ledge pattern seen last week
2008-10-30 19:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the MCO does in relation to Elliott is this
2008-10-30 19:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order to confirm a 4th wave in progress, the MCO should be able to take out the point in the MCO pattern which created wave 2
2008-10-30 19:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we did that today
2008-10-30 19:20:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the minute 2, or the minor 2
2008-10-30 19:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and confirms a 4th wave on an internal basis
2008-10-30 19:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one thing at a time
2008-10-30 19:21:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if you look at the NYA pattern
2008-10-30 19:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and keeping mind the preferred count of the last 3 weeks
2008-10-30 19:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we've only been able to take out the Minute wave 2 pattern structure
2008-10-30 19:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but have yet to take out Minor 2 which was that little head fake high of mid September
2008-10-30 19:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so now it's up to the buyers as to what would then become a more reliable count
2008-10-30 19:22:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now...the count remains as is
2008-10-30 19:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're in Minute wave 4...minimally
2008-10-30 19:23:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so the count .....for now, is minute 4 where we are in C
2008-10-30 19:23:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if we do take out this same September peak, then Minor 3 is complete
2008-10-30 19:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the bulls, near term, it's now put up or shut up time
2008-10-30 19:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they must be able to wrestle full control back in the next day or so, or we might be looking for another failure
2008-10-30 19:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of it this way
2008-10-30 19:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have a paper plane
2008-10-30 19:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first move up from the 10/14 lows would be trying to fly it with a no wind
2008-10-30 19:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the rally of Tuesday had a calm breeze behind it
2008-10-30 19:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and today it had a gust
2008-10-30 19:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the gust must continue in order to hold the plane above the ground
2008-10-30 19:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no wind...crash
2008-10-30 19:26:51 [Message] lew -> Main Room: nice analogy
2008-10-30 19:27:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How do you know that?
2008-10-30 19:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how do I know what?
2008-10-30 19:27:38 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That here and now is do or die,,,,,the bulls
2008-10-30 19:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pattern recognition for one; the extremes of the MCSUM for another
2008-10-30 19:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: before this latest rally
2008-10-30 19:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had four straight days of lower intraday price lows
2008-10-30 19:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then a spike...
2008-10-30 19:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is not what one would see if prices were attempting to create a base
2008-10-30 19:29:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, we know its a 4, just not of what degree, so, we know this is not base building for a new bull, that its just a bounce
2008-10-30 19:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: MCSUM wise - we know that even though the MCSUM is finally turning higher, it's still so deeply "oversold" that it's going to take time for it to create a price structure in which it can build on
2008-10-30 19:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and though the majority of all uptrend's do start with short covering rallies, we're not anywhere near a point in which base building can begin
2008-10-30 19:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: things will continue to be choppy up until we have better balance between buyers and sellers
2008-10-30 19:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this case, the market isn't moving higher because of fresh buying, but it's moving higher because of borrowed stock being returned
2008-10-30 19:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we expected this to happen last week, so this shouldn't be at all surprising
2008-10-30 19:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may be disappointing for some, but we knew that with the MCSUM being so extreme, that it was just a matter of time where we would see some sort attempt to release this same compression
2008-10-30 19:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why we see the MCO with sharp and short moves higher with little structure behind it
2008-10-30 19:33:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was watching this C to determine the strength of the next move, would have and would still like to see a lower C than A, but with these mco's, doesn't look like thats going to be the case
2008-10-30 19:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and structure, or what I like to call "texture" is needed to hold a price direction intact
2008-10-30 19:34:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: should we be looking for a flat? or a C that goes higher than A
2008-10-30 19:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every technical tool will tell you different things about a wave count
2008-10-30 19:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the flat seems to be the most reasonable expectation
2008-10-30 19:34:41 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Is an ED 5th possible within the structure of this C?
2008-10-30 19:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure
2008-10-30 19:35:02 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thx
2008-10-30 19:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but with the higher highs now, I would probably be looking for some sort of divergence
2008-10-30 19:36:56 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I ask because I don't like the MACD position or PC ratio here, but a drop and move into an ED 5 could complete the flat
2008-10-30 19:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might...maybe we'll have the time to look at the angle later Lew
2008-10-30 19:37:59 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thx
2008-10-30 19:38:51 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: Fib how important is the last MCO low now?
2008-10-30 19:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the on a scale of 1 to 10?
2008-10-30 19:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 6 - it's constructive, but we've only reversed a tsunami of money leaving the market
2008-10-30 19:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it took about a week to do so
2008-10-30 19:40:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: starting to sense some complacency out there
2008-10-30 19:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which also suggests to us that the problems of the mid October are no longer keeping people up at night
2008-10-30 19:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know about that - you still have to be on your toes
2008-10-30 19:40:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: of course
2008-10-30 19:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one thing about crashes is that the unusual tends to happen with regularity
2008-10-30 19:41:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: no talk about the retest failing, and no talk about the retest happening now
2008-10-30 19:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...that's what a 1000 point rally will do...people have very short memories that all come flooding back when ambushed
2008-10-30 19:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO powered higher today, and we now have nice post expansion to the upside on the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2008-10-30 19:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it a break away for now...
2008-10-30 19:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this MCSUM is able to move above the ledge highs of last week
2008-10-30 19:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would go a long way in suggesting that the bulls will probably have control of things for the next 2 weeks - which makes Friday important
2008-10-30 19:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for if we reverse here, and the MCO moves back below its zero line, we will have another rally failure in progress
2008-10-30 19:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the good thing for the bulls though is that with the MCSUM as low as it is, it's going to take a great amount of negative breadth plurality to move to lower lows
2008-10-30 19:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we might be looking at some sort of sideways movement for a week or so...maybe keying in on next Tuesday before showing any conviction
2008-10-30 19:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trading wise - if you're long those good old defensive puts from 10/3, you might want to consider covering
2008-10-30 19:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because if we just chop around here, the time decay will be brutal (especially November's)
2008-10-30 19:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who are short, we have a little more time
2008-10-30 19:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the near term key for these traders are the spike highs of September mentioned with the CO's
2008-10-30 19:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where a move above this level will strongly suggest that the bulls will have control for at least 2 weeks
2008-10-30 19:48:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the above comments assuming tomorrow doesn't reverse back down right?
2008-10-30 19:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-30 19:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a important near term juncture
2008-10-30 19:49:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: how negative of a breadth is expected to have a reversal failed rally attempt?
2008-10-30 19:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unlike the last couple of rally attempts, this time we were able to get follow through after a one day consolidation
2008-10-30 19:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can check...one moment
2008-10-30 19:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...it's going to tough - MCO wise - for Friday, a breadth plurality of -23 would give us no change
2008-10-30 19:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a breadth plurality of -3260 is needed just to move back to the zero line
2008-10-30 19:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's on the traditional, btw
2008-10-30 19:52:08 [Message] lew -> Main Room: wow
2008-10-30 19:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember, we're dealing with EMA's
2008-10-30 19:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we've been negative a very long time, so it doesn't take much to move higher
2008-10-30 19:52:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, what does that breadth plurality mean in terms of ad to dec?
2008-10-30 19:52:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it does take quite a kick to move lower
2008-10-30 19:53:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...the ratio between advancers and decliners
2008-10-30 19:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 2000/1000 would be +1000
2008-10-30 19:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1000/2000 would be -1000
2008-10-30 19:53:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so 3260?
2008-10-30 19:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so since there are about 3500 issues
2008-10-30 19:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would take a 98% down day just to snapback to zero
2008-10-30 19:54:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: holy moly
2008-10-30 19:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is unlikely
2008-10-30 19:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...you never know...we've had some wicked days
2008-10-30 19:54:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so the expectation is that this move should chop for a few weeks
2008-10-30 19:54:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: unless tomorrow is super ugly
2008-10-30 19:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point yes, unless, we see good follow through tomorrow
2008-10-30 19:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we get this kind of follow through, then the short term EMA's on a price chart (like the 20 day EMA) would either be challenged or violated
2008-10-30 19:55:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and if that happens then we looking at a greater possibility of a minor 4 in process?
2008-10-30 19:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there would be enough energy to change the direction of the trend
2008-10-30 19:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we're dealing with the MCO, that of short term duration, something like a simple 20 day EMA would be our guidepost
2008-10-30 19:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't expect to see much more advance
2008-10-30 19:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what the market told us today, so far, is that the willing sellers have now completed their check list - they're out
2008-10-30 19:56:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well you have clearly stated what it would take for a continued rally, a pause, and a decline from here, can't ask for more
2008-10-30 19:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far...but we haven't looked at everything...let's move on
2008-10-30 19:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to give you an example of what we may see, take a look at the 3 year NYSE breadth MCO data - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/McOsiSumCurrent.html
2008-10-30 19:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see last summers bottom (2007) and the structure that followed?
2008-10-30 19:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it should be similar to that one - a flag...a reaction...a new high...a snapback to the zero line...and MAYBE a higher highs,
2008-10-30 20:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will be from the snapback to the zero line that we will have a better handle on what we're dealing with
2008-10-30 20:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, with everything we already know about "classic bottoms", whose to say we haven't already left one behind?
2008-10-30 20:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we must remain market neutral
2008-10-30 20:01:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: b/c it wasn't classic?
2008-10-30 20:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe...but sentiment wise...
2008-10-30 20:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all I know is that I presume that we are in an Elliott 3rd wave decline and that hasn't changed
2008-10-30 20:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it can change
2008-10-30 20:02:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it seems like whenever you talk this way, than relook at the mcsum's you become longer term bearish
2008-10-30 20:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: market can be very fickle
2008-10-30 20:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I don't know about that, but I wouldn't be doing anyone any good if I didn't give options
2008-10-30 20:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and more importantly, what to look for that would increase that particular option
2008-10-30 20:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: longer term...it's going to be awhile before we see a good structural rally
2008-10-30 20:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's a given
2008-10-30 20:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intermediate term, we have a long ways to go before we'll see any kind of platform for this same advancing price structure to build on
2008-10-30 20:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short term...it's going to be crazy for a while until the market once again finds some balance
2008-10-30 20:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example - what kept the market from bottoming in October of 1987, trading sideways, and then retesting, is that there are many institutions that are going to have unload losing positions along the way
2008-10-30 20:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and today we have them hedging more, using currency swaps, this kind of thing
2008-10-30 20:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at Tuesday - pretty much Yen related, and when the sellers didn't come in near the close, the frenzy began
2008-10-30 20:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so there wasn't any conviction behind the rally, it was a simple matter of arbitrage
2008-10-30 20:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the other thing that today's higher MCO highs do tell us
2008-10-30 20:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is that the spike intraday price highs of 10/14 are probably going to be challenged before we see a reversal
2008-10-30 20:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for the Dow...that could mean another 800 points
2008-10-30 20:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the flip side, it's not going to be easy - more like in spurts
2008-10-30 20:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved higher today, and has now crossed back above its zero line
2008-10-30 20:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, we still have some horizontal resistance above
2008-10-30 20:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the expectation, near term, is a snapback to or towards the zero line before we make a better attempt to move above this same horizontal area
2008-10-30 20:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the move above this same zero line naturally turned the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM higher today
2008-10-30 20:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the rate of decay of the NAAD moving lower has now been abated - follow though is now important - but a snapback is first on the list of wants
2008-10-30 20:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...this is going to be a long, drawn out process
2008-10-30 20:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's highly unlikely that we'll build on this break above zero before we see a retest first, and knowing what we know about the NYA, we can have a absolutely miserable day tomorrow, and still remain above this same zero line
2008-10-30 20:17:05 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thats influencing my possible count-snapback to ward 0 =possible 4, then ED 5th for next attempt up
2008-10-30 20:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes - could be a small wave (iv) of v of C - we'll get the bear divergence with v of C - and then another trip below the zero line
2008-10-30 20:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls have a lot of work ahead of them just to heal the gaping cracks in the internals
2008-10-30 20:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take time to mend, but at least now, with the MCO moving to higher highs, the patient is now finally standing (which was our first objective)
2008-10-30 20:18:57 [Message] lew -> Main Room: but, would the little 5 of c travel far enough to retest 1044? Therefore my take
2008-10-30 20:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...we'll see if he can walk without a cane
2008-10-30 20:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can extend, right?
2008-10-30 20:19:28 [Message] lew -> Main Room: yep
2008-10-30 20:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to be sure, we're still in no mans land
2008-10-30 20:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: never have we seen such carnage in the markets with so many issues
2008-10-30 20:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a lot of this is using good judgment based on what has happened in the past, while keeping in mind, that every price pattern structure is as unique as a snowflake
2008-10-30 20:20:11 [Message] lew -> Main Room: but, the ED would also provide the choppy ride up
2008-10-30 20:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed
2008-10-30 20:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something to look for, but have an alternate plan
2008-10-30 20:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's only now in which I'm being able to make any kind of sense since 10/3
2008-10-30 20:21:12 [Message] lew -> Main Room: sure will, just trying to put the puzzle together in what feels right all around to me
2008-10-30 20:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the last 3 weeks have had me pretty much blind because of the relentless destruction
2008-10-30 20:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good man
2008-10-30 20:21:38 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thx!
2008-10-30 20:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: always good to look at both sides of every coin thrown at you - keeps you honest
2008-10-30 20:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NDX breadth MCO, now here we have perceptively taken out the late August highs
2008-10-30 20:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, we need to be mindful that we might have something more than just a standard retracement going on
2008-10-30 20:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price pattern structure wise, it doesn't look like it, but you really never know
2008-10-30 20:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the good news about today's higher highs in the MCO's is that we will finally be able to have a better read on things as soon as next week
2008-10-30 20:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now that the craziness has lessened
2008-10-30 20:25:20 [Message] bill -> Main Room: is that a sob pattern on NDX?
2008-10-30 20:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the recent price lows?
2008-10-30 20:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unlikely
2008-10-30 20:26:34 [Message] bill -> Main Room: not sure I understand the pattern but looks similar to others u mentioned
2008-10-30 20:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because that pattern between the two "heads" traded lower than the previous bottom
2008-10-30 20:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you have a chance to read the tutorial?
2008-10-30 20:27:44 [Message] bill -> Main Room: no...i was not aware of it
2008-10-30 20:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here you go - http://tinyurl.com/6q83oq
2008-10-30 20:28:06 [Message] bill -> Main Room: thanks!
2008-10-30 20:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me know is you have any follow up questions
2008-10-30 20:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bear markets are loaded with this configuration from price to the A/D lines
2008-10-30 20:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: speaking of which, last Monday's "Ugly Close" had one - http://tinyurl.com/6oumnk
2008-10-30 20:29:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: maybe that is why they are bear markets
2008-10-30 20:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when we moved back above this structure on Monday morning, it not only destroyed the pattern, but it also gave us the insight of standing aside
2008-10-30 20:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the idea behind them can only happen during bear moves
2008-10-30 20:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a matter of supply and demand factors...just like everything else
2008-10-30 20:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and a really good example of why you have to be so careful in not getting sucked into a certain way of trading
2008-10-30 20:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at that 5 minute chart you had 5 down, the SOB was an Elliott flat that found resistance at the 4th wave of one lesser degree, and then promptly fell apart
2008-10-30 20:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything suggested a bad day on Tuesday, and then...
2008-10-30 20:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's so important in not getting married to anything that you may believe is the correct interpretation
2008-10-30 20:35:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO also moved higher today, but still remains under horizontal resistance
2008-10-30 20:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of weak situation with the OEX breadth MCO
2008-10-30 20:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy..you would had thought that the cream would had a better day
2008-10-30 20:38:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it was the smalls and mids
2008-10-30 20:38:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still, we have a crossover buy on the components, but they still remain below the zero line
2008-10-30 20:38:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that did the damage
2008-10-30 20:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since the MCO is above zero, and the components are not, this suggests that we're in the middle of corrective activity
2008-10-30 20:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same situation with the Dow
2008-10-30 20:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCO moved above it's late September highs today
2008-10-30 20:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so here again, it would appear that Minor wave 3 is behind us - now in Minor 4
2008-10-30 20:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but, boy, that pattern structure on the daily bothers me
2008-10-30 20:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: was that Minute 4 was all of the 10/13 - rally - and then a sloppy 5th wave
2008-10-30 20:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...the internals are telling one story here
2008-10-30 20:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but Elliott wise, there's some trouble under the guidelines in making this fit
2008-10-30 20:42:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get the daily chart - one sec
2008-10-30 20:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p07046171338&a=153146721&r=1261
2008-10-30 20:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, I haven't measured this
2008-10-30 20:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what about...
2008-10-30 20:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wave iv finished with the 1000 point rally
2008-10-30 20:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one down...a deep 2 up
2008-10-30 20:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 3 down...small blip on the daily for 4...and 5?
2008-10-30 20:44:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all that we need (besides an impulsive structure) is that 3 is not the shortest wave
2008-10-30 20:44:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the line chart really changes the look
2008-10-30 20:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we look at the Hist MACD
2008-10-30 20:45:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: used to candlesticks, your chart makes me think of much higher prob of minor 4 in progress with all minutes finished
2008-10-30 20:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have take out all of the Minutes...and we took out Minor 2's highs
2008-10-30 20:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would imply wave 4 of Minor degree
2008-10-30 20:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-30 20:45:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Hist MACD is saying this as well
2008-10-30 20:45:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given how "oversold" we were
2008-10-30 20:46:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wow, overlap at 1275, leaves a ton of room of upside
2008-10-30 20:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that everyone was trading off the eventual "retest"
2008-10-30 20:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wave v could be quite sloppy
2008-10-30 20:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Minor wave 4, therefore, would have an objective of .382 times the entire length of Minor 3
2008-10-30 20:47:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, zero line snap back, B down A of ABC up to (4)
2008-10-30 20:47:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: using a 335
2008-10-30 20:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the odds are that the beginning of wave 4 should be a 3 wave affair whether it's a flat or a triangle
2008-10-30 20:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's unlikely to be a zig zag
2008-10-30 20:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so try that
2008-10-30 20:48:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we A'd up of A, now B down of A then C up to complete A of the ABC up to (4)?
2008-10-30 20:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that would give us plenty of room for a zero line snapback int he MCO, and then bear divergence in a couple of weeks
2008-10-30 20:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: by then...everyone will forget about a retest
2008-10-30 20:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: plausible Dave
2008-10-30 20:49:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah at spx 1100
2008-10-30 20:49:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they'll be talking about new highs on the way
2008-10-30 20:49:13 [Message] lew -> Main Room: and, MCSUMS will have room for the tank
2008-10-30 20:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-30 20:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...that's a nice blueprint
2008-10-30 20:49:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: unless 98% down tomorrow, or big follow through up
2008-10-30 20:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will try to take a better look at it over the weekend
2008-10-30 20:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that would fit
2008-10-30 20:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which also means
2008-10-30 20:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whoever wins on Tuesday, the market will likely rally on Wednesday
2008-10-30 20:50:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: C up of A?
2008-10-30 20:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe
2008-10-30 20:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to let the structure unwind
2008-10-30 20:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: heck...we might be wrong
2008-10-30 20:50:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check it out
2008-10-30 20:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: see if it has merit
2008-10-30 20:51:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: man, have to say that spx 1100 or so, would have EVERYONE except a tiny few, BULLISH as can be
2008-10-30 20:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it would work with the current new highs in the MCO and the Hist MACD
2008-10-30 20:51:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...we had a successful test
2008-10-30 20:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the FED is working out famously as the bank of last resort
2008-10-30 20:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the elections are over
2008-10-30 20:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one fly in the ointment - the MCSUM's
2008-10-30 20:52:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: which leaves the trap door open at any time
2008-10-30 20:52:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: man, can't hold longs overnight - tough trading environment
2008-10-30 20:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're just way too "oversold" to see any kind of rip roaring advance
2008-10-30 20:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a day traders market
2008-10-30 20:53:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well an ABC is not a rally of rip roaring nature - its overlapping and choppy
2008-10-30 20:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: investors will be presented with a better buying opportunity sometime next spring
2008-10-30 20:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to work off the emotional excess of the crash first
2008-10-30 20:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: get better balance between buyers and sellers
2008-10-30 20:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's just too much itchy trigger fingers out there and why we see the volatile moves we've had the pleasure of observing over the last week or so
2008-10-30 20:54:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, on tuesday night, can we go into sectors to see what looks strongest and weakest for trading near term?
2008-10-30 20:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: either Tuesday or Thursday - they probably look trashed...so no need to look as yet
2008-10-30 20:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: need a little more time
2008-10-30 20:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since much of this is just short covering - if things change, we'll address, of course
2008-10-30 20:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the daily Elliott chart for another moment
2008-10-30 20:55:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in a minor 4 up, is that a move of short covering, where the most damaged sectors and stocks will see the greatest advance, or the stocks that help up the best to outperform on the way up?
2008-10-30 20:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we must also be aware that we do have the irregular flat still in play here as well
2008-10-30 20:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's generally the time in which where everyone ran for the exits start to slowly return to the building
2008-10-30 20:57:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what intraday price on spx would tell you that the irregular flat is invalidated
2008-10-30 20:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the crash was like screaming "fire!" and everyone took whatever they could with them
2008-10-30 20:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the fire has now passed, and these same folks are slowly returning what they took with them
2008-10-30 20:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in an irregular flat you take the length of wave "A" and multiply it by 1.618, and then add that number to the "B" wave bottom
2008-10-30 20:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SML breadth MCO also moved higher today
2008-10-30 20:59:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if it goes 1.618 or anywhere close to it, how can it be a flat, that would be a much higher high
2008-10-30 20:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not as robust as the MID
2008-10-30 20:59:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: an irregular flat - where "B" moves below the start of "A" and "C" moves higher than the end of "A"
2008-10-30 20:59:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: b never moved below a
2008-10-30 21:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "A" is 3 waves
2008-10-30 21:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "B" is 3 waves
2008-10-30 21:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "C" is 5 waves
2008-10-30 21:00:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: b never moved below a the lows from that friday were never taken out
2008-10-30 21:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes it did...look at my daily chart
2008-10-30 21:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why it's far better to use close only as it cleans up the mess
2008-10-30 21:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the chart of the daily - close only
2008-10-30 21:00:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: daily yes, it did
2008-10-30 21:01:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: intraday low did not
2008-10-30 21:01:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like i said, depends what time frame
2008-10-30 21:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: daily data seems to work best in these kind of exaggerated situations
2008-10-30 21:01:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: intraday lows of that Friday where never taken out, on a daily, you are right
2008-10-30 21:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any lesser time frame and you're just looking for confirming structure, but it will tend to be messy or forced
2008-10-30 21:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about this
2008-10-30 21:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did the pattern structure before Tuesday's rally look impulsive or corrective?
2008-10-30 21:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did it not basically trade sideways
2008-10-30 21:02:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-30 21:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and spiked into Monday's close?
2008-10-30 21:03:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for the few days before it looked corrective
2008-10-30 21:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that opens your door...
2008-10-30 21:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "B" waves "smell"
2008-10-30 21:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something is always wrong with them
2008-10-30 21:03:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i am not disputing the B
2008-10-30 21:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...daily chart shows a lower low
2008-10-30 21:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's a 3 wave structure
2008-10-30 21:03:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: just the irregular part, and thats if using intraday, on the daily, i see the count clear as day
2008-10-30 21:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: humor me on this one
2008-10-30 21:04:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i am
2008-10-30 21:04:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: im switching to daily
2008-10-30 21:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would
2008-10-30 21:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's just too much volatility, noise, going on right now
2008-10-30 21:04:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on tues, we discussed 5 min chart
2008-10-30 21:04:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the cleaner the data, the better you're able to "see it"
2008-10-30 21:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we did
2008-10-30 21:04:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-30 21:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so do a little math for me based on close only and tell me what you get for "C"
2008-10-30 21:05:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: cant be exact, dont have my esig on this computer, but ill try to approximate
2008-10-30 21:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me do it...one sec
2008-10-30 21:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1017, basis cash, is the objective for the irregular flat
2008-10-30 21:06:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where you take 1.618 x A?
2008-10-30 21:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...any move above this level, then Minor wave 4 would become the preferred
2008-10-30 21:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-30 21:07:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thats equal move
2008-10-30 21:07:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not 1.618
2008-10-30 21:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1003 - 899 = 104
2008-10-30 21:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 104*1.618 = 168
2008-10-30 21:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 168 + 849 = 1017
2008-10-30 21:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that 1000 level has everyone sitting on pins and needles too as being the line in the sand
2008-10-30 21:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me ask you something that might help you decide which is better
2008-10-30 21:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had 4 price objectives
2008-10-30 21:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first was 899
2008-10-30 21:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we bottomed at 899.22
2008-10-30 21:09:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, on a closing basis, the objectives were much closer to being met
2008-10-30 21:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the next downside objective as 851
2008-10-30 21:09:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we closed at 848.92
2008-10-30 21:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you didn't have those annoying tails to worry about
2008-10-30 21:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep it simple
2008-10-30 21:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: life is too complicated as it is
2008-10-30 21:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to rush through as I see we're running long
2008-10-30 21:10:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hard when you do lots of intraday trading to try to focus on looking at closing basis
2008-10-30 21:11:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: have to recalibrate
2008-10-30 21:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking a quick look at the volume MCO's and you see that the cream stocks are finding resistance at their zero lines
2008-10-30 21:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and are not showing any kind of conviction of those of the soilders as yet
2008-10-30 21:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: recommendation
2008-10-30 21:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no matter what time period you choose to trade, to know where you are on the daily helps immensely
2008-10-30 21:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so either before or after the trading day...look at your daily "compass"
2008-10-30 21:12:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i agree, and trade all time frames, thats why its hard to focus on just closing
2008-10-30 21:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that way you won't wind up lost
2008-10-30 21:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand
2008-10-30 21:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: been there
2008-10-30 21:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you must continue to remained focused on the context of your trade
2008-10-30 21:13:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but good advice
2008-10-30 21:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one shouldn't short if the direction of price is moving higher
2008-10-30 21:13:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: will spend more focus on closing
2008-10-30 21:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it takes 5 seconds
2008-10-30 21:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are moving higher..nothing climactic yet
2008-10-30 21:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are working off their "oversold" levels
2008-10-30 21:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would look for a possible move lower once the STVO's get closer to their zero lines like last week
2008-10-30 21:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oscillators all work the same
2008-10-30 21:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: below zero, it's bearish
2008-10-30 21:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: above zero, it's bullish
2008-10-30 21:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .86
2008-10-30 21:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.09
2008-10-30 21:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCO moving to higher highs, we now have a floor
2008-10-30 21:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .92
2008-10-30 21:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.04
2008-10-30 21:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .87
2008-10-30 21:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.11
2008-10-30 21:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...tomorrow is a key day for the bears
2008-10-30 21:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if they can keep the pressure on, this might extend into early next week
2008-10-30 21:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have higher highs on the MCO
2008-10-30 21:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have the Hist MACD (momentum) showing higher highs as well
2008-10-30 21:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Open 10's are now back to "oversold"
2008-10-30 21:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have good intraday support on the cash SPX at 930
2008-10-30 21:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is 9000 on the Dow
2008-10-30 21:19:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what is next support after 930
2008-10-30 21:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 860
2008-10-30 21:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no support until then pattern wise
2008-10-30 21:19:49 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 854 seems to be
2008-10-30 21:19:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so you break 930 then we going to minute 5?
2008-10-30 21:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but first, 930 has to break
2008-10-30 21:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes.
2008-10-30 21:20:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: good to know
2008-10-30 21:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I would wait for 2 consecutive closes below the 930 level before initiating any kind of short trade
2008-10-30 21:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...the odds now are that we're going to continue to move higher for a bit
2008-10-30 21:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it's the weekend and there maybe a lot of squaring off before the close tomorrow
2008-10-30 21:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...and it's the end of the month
2008-10-30 21:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and, let's not forget
2008-10-30 21:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Halloween
2008-10-30 21:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: booo.....
2008-10-30 21:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-10-30 21:22:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Did you see my question about all the inside range days today?
2008-10-30 21:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry, no I didn't...where TM?
2008-10-30 21:22:53 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: A ways back... what do all of them mean to us....happened on many indices
2008-10-30 21:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I see an inside range day on the TM
2008-10-30 21:23:46 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: spx
2008-10-30 21:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that too
2008-10-30 21:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OEX
2008-10-30 21:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: strange
2008-10-30 21:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: covering on the MID, and holding short on the SPX?
2008-10-30 21:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: who knows...just be careful of this range day - it might be just a pause
2008-10-30 21:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-10-30 21:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...just keep your powder dry
2008-10-30 21:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't get too excited
2008-10-30 21:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's go with the irregular flat first with the 1017 objective
2008-10-30 21:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then see how the internals look once we get there
2008-10-30 21:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: secondary...a breakdown
2008-10-30 21:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: third choice - Minor 4
2008-10-30 21:26:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sounds good to me
2008-10-30 21:26:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave
2008-10-30 21:26:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: last question
2008-10-30 21:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure
2008-10-30 21:26:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if flat with 1017 objective, what would you put the current count at on this C
2008-10-30 21:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...irregular flat - problem is - what degree?
2008-10-30 21:27:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be Minute given the scope of the crash
2008-10-30 21:27:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: where in the flat would we be
2008-10-30 21:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the need to work off the test of the lows
2008-10-30 21:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it could be Minor 4
2008-10-30 21:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now
2008-10-30 21:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wave (iv) of v of C
2008-10-30 21:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: three was the rally on Tuesday
2008-10-30 21:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the sideways move of the last two days - a complex 4
2008-10-30 21:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and 5 up to the 1017 target
2008-10-30 21:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which could be as soon as Monday
2008-10-30 21:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or tomorrow
2008-10-30 21:28:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok
2008-10-30 21:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look...everything is happening on hyper speed right now
2008-10-30 21:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there's just not enough information to give an informed hypothesis
2008-10-30 21:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll just have to see things unwind...and then "take a look back"
2008-10-30 21:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trade the pattern...not the count
2008-10-30 21:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: make money - worry about a label later
2008-10-30 21:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm out of here
2008-10-30 21:29:49 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: see you on election day :? 2008-10-30 21:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2008-10-30 21:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll talk again on E-Day!
2008-10-30 21:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and please, go out and vote!!!
2008-10-30 21:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch