All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,454
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-10-28 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-28 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-10-28 16:01:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: super, thanks
2010-10-28 16:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-10-28 16:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we probably have some small point changes tonight - just in time for the weekend!
2010-10-28 16:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hi Doc
2010-10-28 16:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I did a bit of research on the XLV
2010-10-28 16:03:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: hello
2010-10-28 16:03:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: great
2010-10-28 16:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only real answer I have is with the weight of the index
2010-10-28 16:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 14% goes to JNJ
2010-10-28 16:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: other high percentages go to two other Dow stocks - PFE and MRK
2010-10-28 16:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market is going to make a turn
2010-10-28 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow leading the way
2010-10-28 16:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the most plausible reason why the index declined as much as it did in the face of higher than usual MCSUM readings
2010-10-28 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to remember that we're only dealing with a handful of issues in each sector noted at DP
2010-10-28 16:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so those that are given the most amount of weight will tend to skew the technical from time to time
2010-10-28 16:06:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: makes sense
2010-10-28 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these are the top 10 issues -
2010-10-28 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Johnson & Johnson JNJ 13.9% Pfizer Inc. PFE 9.1% Abbott Laboratories ABT 5.6% Wyeth WYE 5.5% Merck & Co. Inc. MRK 4.9% Amgen Inc. AMGN 4.8% Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD 3.9% Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. BMY 3.7% Schering-Plough Corp. SGP 3.5%
2010-10-28 16:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some real heavy weights there
2010-10-28 16:07:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: still would like to know when a +1000 will signal momentum more to the upside and when it might be THE TOP, but it may simply depend on what the rest of the market is going to do
2010-10-28 16:07:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: or what a few specific issue in the sector will do
2010-10-28 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is at an extreme...the momentum of money either moving in or out does NOT suggest the end of the price trend itself
2010-10-28 16:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe that we may be asking too much of the McClellan's when it comes to sector trading
2010-10-28 16:09:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well in Jan and March of this year for XLV, the +1000 level extreme coincided with THE top locally
2010-10-28 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they tend to work their real magic with the most amount of information available that is diversified
2010-10-28 16:09:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: so your statement might be best, careful when dealing with sectors
2010-10-28 16:09:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: too few numbers
2010-10-28 16:09:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: more noise if there is a couple of outliers
2010-10-28 16:10:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I guess those times presented sellers an opportunity to sell their defensive issues because of the general market climate
2010-10-28 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last couple of years haven't been, what we can call, years of confidence
2010-10-28 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I only looked back 3 years though
2010-10-28 16:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't have any data beyond what DP gives me in this area
2010-10-28 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Randy might have more historical information to work with
2010-10-28 16:11:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: same +1000 readings in 2009 a few times resulted in minimal pullback and higher highs soon after, ie the momentum of the thrust carried on even after the Mcsum started to fall, just like XLU now
2010-10-28 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that might show more consistency to what would expect generally
2010-10-28 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exceptions?
2010-10-28 16:12:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think that is the idea
2010-10-28 16:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been a crazy couple of years
2010-10-28 16:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah...wait a minute
2010-10-28 16:12:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: There will be more exceptions and less rules if you apply the McSum to smaller subsets
2010-10-28 16:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one of the times was March?
2010-10-28 16:12:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: Which are we on now?
2010-10-28 16:12:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: Just bring up you 3 year chart
2010-10-28 16:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the health care bill was passed in March
2010-10-28 16:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we can agree with subset idea
2010-10-28 16:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking again at the 3 year chart
2010-10-28 16:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: several notes
2010-10-28 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we barely got above the +500 level in 2008 and early 2009
2010-10-28 16:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we were in a general bear market then
2010-10-28 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a double top formation in the August and September period
2010-10-28 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was our flag
2010-10-28 16:15:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: Funny how we reached "escape velocity" those 2 times and it as a bull trap
2010-10-28 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: diverged in January
2010-10-28 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: um....
2010-10-28 16:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...we didn't have follow through
2010-10-28 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had people running for defensive issues
2010-10-28 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which might over extended the pattern as most needed to be invested at all times
2010-10-28 16:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the smaller amount of issues in the index
2010-10-28 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can allow a little bit of a throw over
2010-10-28 16:16:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: Just saying that crossing above +500 is no guarantee. You then better see +600 and +750, and perhaps +1000 for the trend to continue
2010-10-28 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the sectors...maybe
2010-10-28 16:17:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: that's my point
2010-10-28 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the broader market...+500 IS escape velocity
2010-10-28 16:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT has never failed
2010-10-28 16:17:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, fair enough.
2010-10-28 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it would be better to allow the smaller sectors of the broader market to maybe have a +750 instead of a +500 escape velocity reading instead?
2010-10-28 16:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we can't forecast in all of this
2010-10-28 16:18:36 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The 500 mark for the broader market, does that also hold for the volume MCSUM?
2010-10-28 16:18:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: Maybe, but that should be looked at before deciding if true
2010-10-28 16:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we can't measure how the human condition will react to things that are unexpected which leads to panic situations
2010-10-28 16:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that...and when a computer is told to execute a trade just because of a keystroke error
2010-10-28 16:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much Tonny
2010-10-28 16:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its breadth of market
2010-10-28 16:19:48 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-10-28 16:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the measurement of the amount of money available for investment, that is the key to understanding this dynamic and its predictive value towards the direction of price itself
2010-10-28 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume is needed to move those prices in that direction
2010-10-28 16:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but breadth shows us how much money there is for volume to make this same push
2010-10-28 16:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-10-28 16:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is only 1 million dollars to push prices higher
2010-10-28 16:21:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: How about this. SECTOR escape velocities of +500 are forever taken with a grain of salt, and close stops IF the NYSI is below +500 and especially the common stock MCSUM is below +500. Period
2010-10-28 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not going as stimulative as, let's say, if there's 1 billion dollars to work with
2010-10-28 16:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can accept that idea Doc
2010-10-28 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that
2010-10-28 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the way we should look at the sectors anyway
2010-10-28 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our review of these components
2010-10-28 16:22:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: When XLV had the 2 failed +500 escapes, look where the CS and NY McSums were in August 2008 and Feb 2009.
2010-10-28 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is primarily to know which of these "spokes on the wheel" are stronger or weaker than the others
2010-10-28 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: knowing this
2010-10-28 16:23:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: CS -250 and +200 peak
2010-10-28 16:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the broader market is friendly
2010-10-28 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then make an educated guess as to where the majority of this same "friendliness" is going to
2010-10-28 16:24:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: NYSE at -250 and +300 at those times.
2010-10-28 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's more for direction...than anything else
2010-10-28 16:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2010-10-28 16:24:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes agreed.
2010-10-28 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not really comfortable in making new rules for the sake of "this time being (possibly) different"
2010-10-28 16:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, we can use these numbers as guidelines
2010-10-28 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see how the work
2010-10-28 16:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as no two market structures are ever the same
2010-10-28 16:25:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: Goes back to your best chances long is when the tide is rising to float all boats
2010-10-28 16:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must be able to bend and adjust as things go along
2010-10-28 16:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-10-28 16:25:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also goes to show
2010-10-28 16:25:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: A positive +500 NYSE McSum is the tide
2010-10-28 16:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that no matter how good an indicator is
2010-10-28 16:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there's going to be times in which things happen that are not usual and customary
2010-10-28 16:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TA is not perfect
2010-10-28 16:26:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: A sector +500 is a current within the tide that could get overwhelmed by the tide
2010-10-28 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's far better than anything else out there
2010-10-28 16:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2010-10-28 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more sectors that are moving in the direction of the primary trend of the broad market
2010-10-28 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as measured by the NYA
2010-10-28 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the chances that extremes in the MCSUM will compliment what we know as being consistent with this broader market
2010-10-28 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the bottom here
2010-10-28 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are looking for consistency
2010-10-28 16:27:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: A very smart man repeated says: "Anything can happen at any time" in the markets.
2010-10-28 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct me if I'm wrong
2010-10-28 16:28:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: But your summary is appealing
2010-10-28 16:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is chat room was the ONLY place on the internet where we've been calling for choppy behavior in the markets for the last 2 weeks...and the tools that we have been using have been correct in this forecast
2010-10-28 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so evidently
2010-10-28 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tools do work
2010-10-28 16:29:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they tend to do better with the greatest amount of information
2010-10-28 16:29:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: This entire discussion echoes a caution you gave a couple of years ago in looking at the sector mco and mcsum when DP first provided them that the tools you have used for many years for the broad market are untested for the sectors
2010-10-28 16:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you for remembering that
2010-10-28 16:30:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it's an ongoing process
2010-10-28 16:30:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: you said that in these very chats
2010-10-28 16:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe
2010-10-28 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on what we're talking about here
2010-10-28 16:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this information may be interesting...but we shouldn't put too much weight in what it might translate to
2010-10-28 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2010-10-28 16:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there have been other sectors that have been consistent
2010-10-28 16:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have had price objectives given by the MCO's that have been met
2010-10-28 16:31:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well we don't want to throw out the baby with the bathwater
2010-10-28 16:31:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: correct
2010-10-28 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are dealing with a sector whose future is highly uncertain as it pertains to profits/earnings
2010-10-28 16:32:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: and the tools will likely work just as well in broader indexes like nasdaq, rut, mid, sml, spx, wilshire
2010-10-28 16:32:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: more caution with dow and ndx
2010-10-28 16:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those are the important indices
2010-10-28 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...OEX too
2010-10-28 16:32:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: as only 30 and 100 issues there
2010-10-28 16:32:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes oex
2010-10-28 16:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the directional bias in all cases does need to be addressed
2010-10-28 16:32:58 [Message] doc -> Chat: no doubt
2010-10-28 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...as we have been doing since our return in June
2010-10-28 16:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we tend to look at them on Tuesday or Thursday...but not both
2010-10-28 16:33:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we are in a indecision pattern
2010-10-28 16:33:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: and with time, the particular nuances with the smaller sectors may emerge to fine tune the information gleaned from them
2010-10-28 16:33:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking for leadership
2010-10-28 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only that
2010-10-28 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the markets are always changing the rules on us
2010-10-28 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know this
2010-10-28 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no two market segments are ever the same
2010-10-28 16:34:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: true
2010-10-28 16:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what used to work last year usually doesn't work as well this time around
2010-10-28 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sector leadership
2010-10-28 16:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermarket relationships
2010-10-28 16:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good example
2010-10-28 16:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the rally from the September lows has done so without the Financials
2010-10-28 16:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we continue this way
2010-10-28 16:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keep the majority from hopping on board because this same sector was the one that forced the markets to collapse in 2008
2010-10-28 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how bull markets are created
2010-10-28 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it happened this way in 2003-2004
2010-10-28 16:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one believed the market could rally without Tech
2010-10-28 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since tech was the driving force of the 1998-2000 advance and 2000-2002 decline
2010-10-28 16:36:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: With that, lets check out the charts for today and see what you see for the next day or three. I'm sure the others are itching to start.
2010-10-28 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the semiconductors
2010-10-28 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL people look at the SOX as some kind of leading indicator after 10 years of doing absolutely nothing
2010-10-28 16:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-10-28 16:37:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: But thanks for taking a peek at XLV and addressing the sector issue
2010-10-28 16:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some interesting ideas here
2010-10-28 16:37:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes thanks
2010-10-28 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm as flexible as anyone
2010-10-28 16:37:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...thank you
2010-10-28 16:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a great reminder for everyone that things can change or be different
2010-10-28 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing is set in stone
2010-10-28 16:38:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well for me
2010-10-28 16:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we deal with probabilities and potential outcomes and then we set stops
2010-10-28 16:38:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just in case..
2010-10-28 16:38:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: it is a matter of taking what you have done in the past
2010-10-28 16:38:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: and taking it to a new level.
2010-10-28 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much appreciated Obi Won
2010-10-28 16:39:24 [Message] doc -> Chat:
2010-10-28 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any other comments or questions before I go on?
2010-10-28 16:40:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-10-28 16:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get a move on
2010-10-28 16:40:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: have the internals deteriorated to the point that there is major caution for a near term drop
2010-10-28 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking down below the zero line yesterday
2010-10-28 16:40:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: or is the the pause to offer a reasonable entry?
2010-10-28 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO had a small point change today
2010-10-28 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Doc...
2010-10-28 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are the components?
2010-10-28 16:41:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: corrective
2010-10-28 16:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's consistency to that?
2010-10-28 16:41:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: Absolutely
2010-10-28 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-28 16:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components of the CO and we see that they still remain above their zero line
2010-10-28 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 10% component is now at its lowest level since the end of September
2010-10-28 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point, we continue with corrective activity
2010-10-28 16:42:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: some corrections to the zero line offer nice entries and other times it spikes straight through for a CIT
2010-10-28 16:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a bit weaker than in anytime in almost a month
2010-10-28 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our being below the CO MCO zero line has now turned the CO breadth MCSUM lower after moving to just slightly above the (magical) +750 level
2010-10-28 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was one of our expectations now for the last couple of weeks
2010-10-28 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, at this point, we might finally be getting a intermediate pause in the trend of money flow
2010-10-28 16:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given that we are as high as we hare right now on the MCSUM
2010-10-28 16:45:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's highly unlikely that any down trend in price can develop
2010-10-28 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next technical expectation will be for a snapback to or towards the zero line
2010-10-28 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that might begin as soon as tomorrow
2010-10-28 16:46:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: with a borderline small point change
2010-10-28 16:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on both the traditional and the ratio adjusted NYSE breadth MCO's tonight
2010-10-28 16:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2010-10-28 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...as a possible warning
2010-10-28 16:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have quite an emotional roller coaster coming over the next 5 days
2010-10-28 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first we have the mid term elections and then we have the FED statement on Wednesday and then it's "Buy in November" to offset "Sell in May"
2010-10-28 16:47:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this may or may not have any real bearing on prices directly
2010-10-28 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it might keep things "coiled" up for more than 2 trading days until the market has greater clarity
2010-10-28 16:48:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Also NFP on Friday
2010-10-28 16:48:25 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I see an SHS on SPX (30 min chart) that points to 1160 and lower. If we close down there tomorrow we may have a key reversal week printed on the week chart. If that happens what would your take on next week be?
2010-10-28 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we already know, however, that the market is highly "overbought" here
2010-10-28 16:48:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: Also the first look at Q3 GDP tomor
2010-10-28 16:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any possible downside surprises would actually be welcomed near term just to shake the tree if anything else
2010-10-28 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a false break to the downside to pile on the bears and then whoosh...up and through the April highs
2010-10-28 16:49:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be impossible to have a key reversal
2010-10-28 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could have a reversal bar, but not a "key" one
2010-10-28 16:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: open interest continues to expand on the up moves
2010-10-28 16:50:38 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: We gapped up and printed higher and if we close lower than the low of last week would it then not be a key reversal week?
2010-10-28 16:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need life of contract and open interest in the equation for it to be "key"
2010-10-28 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...
2010-10-28 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: key reversals are rare animals
2010-10-28 16:51:20 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: what is life of contract?
2010-10-28 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have some extra time...I did a tutorial on this a while ago that will explain it - http://forums.technicalwatch.com/post?id=1664477
2010-10-28 16:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can say reversal...but it won't be "key"
2010-10-28 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing about reversal bars
2010-10-28 16:52:34 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I will check it out. Thanks!
2010-10-28 16:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that sometimes they can be exhaustion bars
2010-10-28 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the difference is based on the internals...if we were diverging on the MCSUM, for example, then it would increase the chance of it being a reversal bar
2010-10-28 16:53:13 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: So if it happens it could be a buying opportunity based on the MCSUM level?
2010-10-28 16:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if not...it's more than likely one of exhaustion
2010-10-28 16:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was the backbone of the discussion earlier
2010-10-28 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the energy of a move ends
2010-10-28 16:53:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: nice triangle on the mco with the uptrend line from the May lows and the downtrend line from the July highs
2010-10-28 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its doesn't stop the momentum that follows it
2010-10-28 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I use the space shuttle as an example...once it gets high enough, it will shut down its engines, but it's the momentum that allows it to reach orbit
2010-10-28 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same concept here
2010-10-28 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on
2010-10-28 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be noted
2010-10-28 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYSE breadth MCO did not break below the previous lows of mid October as the the CO has
2010-10-28 16:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that although the commons are a bit weaker right now, we seem to be getting new participation with the interest rate sensitives
2010-10-28 16:56:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a defensive move
2010-10-28 16:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe money moving in on the expectation of next week
2010-10-28 16:56:46 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The price high on Monday and the lower MCSUM reading on NYSE on Monday would that be a MCSUM divergence if we put in a reversal tomorrow?
2010-10-28 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the series of divergences, from the MCO and the MCSUM, would only suggest to us that the momentum of money that had been moving into the market is now starting to wane
2010-10-28 16:57:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: The price high on Monday was intraday not close
2010-10-28 16:58:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or..it's just not as robust as it was previously
2010-10-28 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I find it best to use close only data to compare close only data
2010-10-28 16:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday information can confuse - you want to compare apples and apples
2010-10-28 16:58:49 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK, so no possible MCSUM divergence on NYSE
2010-10-28 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a orange that may look like an apple
2010-10-28 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look...one moment
2010-10-28 17:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...the divergence is slight - it's there
2010-10-28 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not really enough to trade on
2010-10-28 17:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's suspect - not clean
2010-10-28 17:01:19 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: So if we have a reversal week and with this slight divergence, what would your take then be?
2010-10-28 17:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/spxmcsum102810.png
2010-10-28 17:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look again...one moment
2010-10-28 17:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no divergence on the weekly - there is no reversal bar
2010-10-28 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at the daily
2010-10-28 17:03:21 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I know, I am playing with the idea that we close below 1160 tomorrow.
2010-10-28 17:03:35 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: If so, I would like to know how serious it is.
2010-10-28 17:03:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't look serious
2010-10-28 17:03:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: Is NYSI falling off the ledge on the chart you posted???
2010-10-28 17:03:52 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: If it would be a buying opportunity or a time to get out
2010-10-28 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see only an exhaustion bar on Monday - nothing of a reversal
2010-10-28 17:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading short remains "hit and run"...nothing has changed
2010-10-28 17:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the development of a down trend at the current time is less than 5%
2010-10-28 17:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe 6%
2010-10-28 17:05:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: lol
2010-10-28 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is too high
2010-10-28 17:05:16 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I understand. I just would like to know if that would also be the message if we close under 1160 tomorrow. I know it is hypothetical, but we only speak again on Tuesday
2010-10-28 17:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO components above their zero line, any declines will be met with buyers
2010-10-28 17:05:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: it could change from the intraday hit and run to the couple of days hit and run, and eventually maybe a whole week hit and run
2010-10-28 17:06:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: as the components go negative, if they do
2010-10-28 17:06:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that chart isn't too pretty
2010-10-28 17:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components will bounce off their zero line first
2010-10-28 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would probably give us higher price highs
2010-10-28 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...you guys are tough!
2010-10-28 17:06:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: and the NYSI isn't falling off the ledge?
2010-10-28 17:06:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's your chart, lol
2010-10-28 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's no ledge
2010-10-28 17:07:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: spooky is concerned
2010-10-28 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it hasn't topped
2010-10-28 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't have a ledge unless there's a trend already in place
2010-10-28 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern can roll over
2010-10-28 17:07:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: +750 could be a top no?
2010-10-28 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +750 is just an extreme - it's "overbought"
2010-10-28 17:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a price pattern
2010-10-28 17:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would usually make rounding top as the degree of buyers starts to exhaust itself
2010-10-28 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buyers just don't all of a sudden stop buying...they exhaust themselves
2010-10-28 17:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the fuel in a fuel tank
2010-10-28 17:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can run out of gas, but you're momentum will continue to push you forward until you give it enough resistance to slow down...stop...and then turn around
2010-10-28 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise - you're transmission will fall out
2010-10-28 17:09:53 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-28 17:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you'll not go anywhere!
2010-10-28 17:09:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: so true
2010-10-28 17:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're dealing with physics here
2010-10-28 17:10:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: large summation gaps, overbought,under the zero line, small point change-yep Doc, I'm concerned
2010-10-28 17:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...what could happen Lew?
2010-10-28 17:10:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, I don't see a large move as upward under these conditions
2010-10-28 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be reasonable
2010-10-28 17:11:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nor fatal, IT
2010-10-28 17:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what if the market is trying to desperately find a way to relieve its "overbought" condition
2010-10-28 17:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2010-10-28 17:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices just chop around
2010-10-28 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about...
2010-10-28 17:12:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my concern is the next couple sessions, the small point change may make it a deeper chop
2010-10-28 17:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM is in the process of snapping back to the +800 level?
2010-10-28 17:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could
2010-10-28 17:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you as a day trader will reap the benefit
2010-10-28 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an trend trader, or an investor, or a trader of more than 6 1/2 hours
2010-10-28 17:12:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hope so,lol
2010-10-28 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a time to monitor the market as to other potential divergences
2010-10-28 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as now that the intermediate term trend is now moving lower
2010-10-28 17:13:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well if we apply some things we have learned in the past, the stoch on the NYMO is very low, suggesting UP and the OPEN 10 for the NYSE is oversold, so the small point change should lean towards an UP move. Now why to Lew and I worry that it might go down instead? What are we missing?
2010-10-28 17:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those indicators that measure momentum, and are diverging, will now tend to give better readings of either moving into or out of a specific group of stocks
2010-10-28 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think everyone is desperate for a move
2010-10-28 17:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is playing on everyone's emotions
2010-10-28 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not moving in any direction and everyone is guessing now...leading off
2010-10-28 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or they are going to an extreme
2010-10-28 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "we're going to crash"
2010-10-28 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "no - we're going melt up"
2010-10-28 17:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no - "we're going to go bonkers waiting for the market to make its next move!"
2010-10-28 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but underneath it all the internals remain positive
2010-10-28 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms continue to control the direction of the A/D lines themselves
2010-10-28 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: their advance has been, and now continues to be, slowing
2010-10-28 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not selling
2010-10-28 17:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pausing
2010-10-28 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: holding
2010-10-28 17:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for additional clarity
2010-10-28 17:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've been doing this for the last 4 weeks
2010-10-28 17:16:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: Hold on. I'm trying to apply TA here. I repeat. Well if we apply some things we have learned in the past, the stoch on the NYMO is very low, suggesting UP and the OPEN 10 for the NYSE is oversold, so the small point change should lean towards an UP move. Now why do Lew and I worry that it might go down instead? What are we missing? Is the logical expectation for the move to be up?
2010-10-28 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any surprises have been to the upside - that hasn't changed
2010-10-28 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there isn't anything substantive to change that surprise factor
2010-10-28 17:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because you have been looking for a down move for the past 4 weeks to meet your cycle lows...to meet a September/October decline...because the economy is fragile???
2010-10-28 17:17:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: Which way do you think probability dictates for the big move to go in the next 2 trading days that the small point change implies
2010-10-28 17:17:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: summation is a bit different here, to me
2010-10-28 17:18:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm net long right now
2010-10-28 17:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM now moving lower
2010-10-28 17:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that the trend of money is now leaving the market
2010-10-28 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would hold
2010-10-28 17:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with appropriate stops in place
2010-10-28 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a show me market
2010-10-28 17:19:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I was short aapl via puts from yesterday-and let it off the hook too early - believe me, I'm being cautious short
2010-10-28 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK - let's go to the NDX for a moment
2010-10-28 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's it doing?
2010-10-28 17:19:45 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I shorted NDX at the close
2010-10-28 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2010-10-28 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the chart and tell me what told you to short this market?
2010-10-28 17:20:06 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: A price pattern and the lower MCO
2010-10-28 17:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the NDX?
2010-10-28 17:20:14 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: of NASDAQ comp
2010-10-28 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you shorted the NDX?
2010-10-28 17:20:34 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: A wedge with false break outs
2010-10-28 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you didn't short the COMPQ
2010-10-28 17:20:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dropped 7 bucks into bottom today, I covered after 5
2010-10-28 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2010-10-28 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess I"m not going to win here
2010-10-28 17:21:06 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-28 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: day traders
2010-10-28 17:21:10 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I may be wrong
2010-10-28 17:21:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: individual issues seem more clear to me here
2010-10-28 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trade your little hearts out
2010-10-28 17:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: question tonny
2010-10-28 17:21:31 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Have been wrong many times before. That is why I listen here
2010-10-28 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many long positions have you traded over the last 2 weeks?
2010-10-28 17:21:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: actually, you are a large help in that day trading, thanks!
2010-10-28 17:22:02 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: A couple
2010-10-28 17:22:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: more long than short, easily
2010-10-28 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how many short positions have you had?
2010-10-28 17:22:16 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: But too many shorts and too few longs
2010-10-28 17:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2010-10-28 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-10-28 17:22:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: Tonny, remember that you can't apply the NASDAQ technicals directly to trading as there are very few liquid vehicle tracking the NASDAQ. The all track the NDX and it behaves differently than the NASDAQ
2010-10-28 17:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many of those short positions were profitable?
2010-10-28 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: honest
2010-10-28 17:22:54 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: 50%
2010-10-28 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how many longs?
2010-10-28 17:23:09 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: most
2010-10-28 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and which position was harder to hold?
2010-10-28 17:23:37 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: They have all been hard...
2010-10-28 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-28 17:23:44 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-28 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ok...
2010-10-28 17:23:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-10-28 17:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the point here
2010-10-28 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2010-10-28 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is coming from someone who has been doing this for 40 years
2010-10-28 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you've heard me say recently I have no reason to short here
2010-10-28 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would rather enter longs when triggered...and then rest
2010-10-28 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want my trades to be as easy as possible
2010-10-28 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not have to worry about a trade going in my direction in one minute, and then 30 minutes later, losing everything I won
2010-10-28 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-10-28 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I don't know you very well
2010-10-28 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but over trading can really get you in trouble
2010-10-28 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's your experience and your comfortability is what counts here
2010-10-28 17:26:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so true
2010-10-28 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I used to flip with the rest of them
2010-10-28 17:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I used to trade at the old PSE
2010-10-28 17:26:55 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: PSE?
2010-10-28 17:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was trading positions every 10-15 minutes
2010-10-28 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Pacific Stock Exchange
2010-10-28 17:27:11 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-10-28 17:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those were the days in which we had runners mark the changes on chalk boards
2010-10-28 17:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-28 17:27:38 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Did you use the tick and do you still use it?
2010-10-28 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I used to track it all by hand - I used to do everything on graph paper and a number two pencil
2010-10-28 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Oh my...it's getting late
2010-10-28 17:28:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: your point last week was well made, these have been dream conditions to trade long-but, as a day trader, I will action shorts-with great caution, looking for less
2010-10-28 17:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let it build
2010-10-28 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCSUM moves lower - the easier it will be for prices to decay
2010-10-28 17:29:05 [Message] darris -> Chat: fib have you reviewed the MCO expansion to the down side here? we also had a small pt chg today
2010-10-28 17:29:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-10-28 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm moving on now Darris...sorry
2010-10-28 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NDX data
2010-10-28 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the NDX breadth MCO not only remains above its zero line
2010-10-28 17:29:50 [Message] darris -> Chat: We are at a very serious cross roads if end of month selling hits hard tomorrow
2010-10-28 17:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday's are always tricky but I would expect a day like last Friday
2010-10-28 17:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a little too early to look for surprises for the bears they are only now building strength here
2010-10-28 17:31:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: The stoch on the NYMO is very low, suggesting UP and the OPEN 10 for the NYSE is oversold, so the small point change should lean towards an UP move. Is this a reasonable expectation?
2010-10-28 17:31:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: OK, but the technical view of the MCO here is important
2010-10-28 17:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the NDX breadth MCSUM is now at higher highs after moving net sideways for the last month
2010-10-28 17:32:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the kind of thing that "could" happen with the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-10-28 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NDX price pattern closed at new recovery highs today
2010-10-28 17:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so shorting this index would be the at the bottom of my list as you have confirmation both internally and externally
2010-10-28 17:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest the NDX is looking like a run-a-way market now
2010-10-28 17:33:18 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: It is a VST trade
2010-10-28 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as you have a stop like at the highs of today
2010-10-28 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't hang around too long here
2010-10-28 17:33:50 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: exactly
2010-10-28 17:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your risk, therefore, would be small
2010-10-28 17:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I wouldn't at all hold any short positions over the weekend
2010-10-28 17:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we didn't even get a snapback to the April highs on the NDX
2010-10-28 17:34:28 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I will close it tomorrow no matter what
2010-10-28 17:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: THAT'S how strong this market is!
2010-10-28 17:34:41 [Message] darris -> Chat: 1st of the month seasonal has been very rewarding to the upside this year. Lots of Monday have as well
2010-10-28 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO
2010-10-28 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX breadth MCSUM is finding resistance at around its +750 level
2010-10-28 17:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX
2010-10-28 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that the closer these MCO's are to their zero line shows us that there isn't one side taking the baton here
2010-10-28 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side will be shortly, but until we get that direction, better to wait just a little bit more for this important clarity
2010-10-28 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jumping over to the SML breadth MCO and there we can see that selling is entering the market here
2010-10-28 17:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, the MCO components remain above their zero line
2010-10-28 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's only corrective activity for now
2010-10-28 17:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe month end portfolio adjustments in play there
2010-10-28 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change in the TM breadth MCO
2010-10-28 17:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you take a quick look at the sector MCO's
2010-10-28 17:39:52 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Is there a divergence on the TM MCSUM
2010-10-28 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see that many of them are at their zero lines right now
2010-10-28 17:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...slight
2010-10-28 17:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not clean
2010-10-28 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you're trading the NDX
2010-10-28 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, according to this data, is the strongest of the major averages right now
2010-10-28 17:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one or two stocks can't do that - it has to be a larger majority participating
2010-10-28 17:41:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: Is the MCO uptrend line broken and is that important here?
2010-10-28 17:41:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the TM?
2010-10-28 17:41:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: looks like today broke below
2010-10-28 17:41:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-10-28 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2010-10-28 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ruler to monitor...it looks like it's sitting right on it which would suggest a bounce tomorrow
2010-10-28 17:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand, if we don't get the bounce, THEN something different maybe going on that would need our attention
2010-10-28 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are pretty much neutral except for the NDX
2010-10-28 17:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are now finally starting to move lower
2010-10-28 17:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully we can them closer to the zero line - that will help the bulls immensely if we can
2010-10-28 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.11
2010-10-28 17:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2010-10-28 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much remaining "oversold" - not likely we're going to see a breakdown
2010-10-28 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we might see, however, are deeper corrections than 1%
2010-10-28 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we should continue to rebound quickly
2010-10-28 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of special note this evening
2010-10-28 17:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 55 day SMA of the NYSE TRIN is now getting very close to being "overbought"
2010-10-28 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last time that happened was in April
2010-10-28 17:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you look at the 3 year chart
2010-10-28 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market doesn't do very well after the 55 gets "overbought"
2010-10-28 17:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something to be aware of
2010-10-28 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .60
2010-10-28 17:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .75
2010-10-28 17:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2010-10-28 17:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds of a pullback on the NASDAQ is pretty good
2010-10-28 17:49:46 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-28 17:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (there's a bone for ya Tonny )
2010-10-28 17:50:02 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I feel better
2010-10-28 17:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the 55 day SMA on the NASDAQ TRIN on the 3 year chart
2010-10-28 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also look at the price pattern where we're back up to levels in which we were turned away 3 times over the last 3 years - 2500
2010-10-28 17:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .80
2010-10-28 17:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .85
2010-10-28 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 55 is getting close to "overbought"
2010-10-28 17:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-10-28 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what we got
2010-10-28 17:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've had the MCSUM rising for just about 2 months
2010-10-28 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last month has given us congested gaps which suggests that the market is almost being "forced" to move higher
2010-10-28 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume has been fine and has been moving in sync with breadth
2010-10-28 17:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices have supported a series of higher highs and higher lows so the trend is up
2010-10-28 17:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN numbers are messy with the secondaries leading the charge higher and the primaries still seeing a lot of selling of late
2010-10-28 17:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ Composite is up against resistance of the last 3 years
2010-10-28 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's TRIN numbers are suggesting a rest is needed
2010-10-28 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the fundamental backdrop remains bullish
2010-10-28 17:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as monetary policy is on full throttle and flooding the markets with liquidity
2010-10-28 17:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we are to believe the polls there's going to be a big shift towards the center right on Tuesday
2010-10-28 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the executive branch remaining far left
2010-10-28 17:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will pretty much put a hold any new legislation for a while
2010-10-28 17:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is bullish for the markets
2010-10-28 17:56:18 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Less stimulus?
2010-10-28 17:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED will continue to do what it needs to do to maintain economic strength
2010-10-28 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the congress can't do anything about the economy
2010-10-28 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except in one area - taxes
2010-10-28 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is a mandate next week
2010-10-28 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a ugly battle in December
2010-10-28 17:57:41 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: ?
2010-10-28 17:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the old regime moves out...they will do everything they can to leave a trail of destruction before they go
2010-10-28 17:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: passing bills that have been tabled until after the election
2010-10-28 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-10-28 17:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2010-10-28 17:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market remains positive
2010-10-28 17:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's going to take a couple of weeks...at least...before we see any kind of indication that a trend to the downside can even be entertained
2010-10-28 17:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who wish to short full discipline is needed
2010-10-28 17:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who are long
2010-10-28 17:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the rotation and take profits when stops are hit
2010-10-28 17:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can always go back in
2010-10-28 18:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and monitor the rest for now as we'll more than likely continue to chop...with an upward bias
2010-10-28 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-28 18:00:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, nice work
2010-10-28 18:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a tough market
2010-10-28 18:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a lot of indecision out there
2010-10-28 18:01:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: What's the consensus on the likely direction for the small point change?
2010-10-28 18:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the expectation of snapbacks in the MCO's
2010-10-28 18:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that other MCO's are in and around their zero lines
2010-10-28 18:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nod continues to be with bulls
2010-10-28 18:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would give it 60/40
2010-10-28 18:02:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: reasonable.
2010-10-28 18:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you really never know for sure on the direction
2010-10-28 18:02:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm short NDX and CLF from the close Doc
2010-10-28 18:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get tension on the tape like this you never really know what's going to release the spring
2010-10-28 18:02:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: GDP in the morning
2010-10-28 18:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are the futures?
2010-10-28 18:03:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: DOWN
2010-10-28 18:03:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: down
2010-10-28 18:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by?
2010-10-28 18:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ES?
2010-10-28 18:03:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: 4 on ES
2010-10-28 18:03:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 4 and change
2010-10-28 18:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ND?
2010-10-28 18:03:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: Nikkei leading the AH down
2010-10-28 18:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget Japan...they follow
2010-10-28 18:04:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: Down 120
2010-10-28 18:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the consistency here has been with London
2010-10-28 18:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the Brits go so has the US
2010-10-28 18:04:41 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: FTSE100 broke uptrend line yesterday and tested the brake today
2010-10-28 18:04:44 [Message] darris -> Chat: FTSE has been really weak, but DAX more strong
2010-10-28 18:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes....but the DAX breadth isn't leading there
2010-10-28 18:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the DAX is more closely related to the NDX anyway
2010-10-28 18:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FTSE to the NYA
2010-10-28 18:05:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: DAX is about 6 pts from taking out today's low right now
2010-10-28 18:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you getting that from the spreads?
2010-10-28 18:05:58 [Message] darris -> Chat: real time DAX futures quotes
2010-10-28 18:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well...we'll see how it goes
2010-10-28 18:06:12 [Message] darris -> Chat: trades 24/5 like our futures
2010-10-28 18:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know very well
2010-10-28 18:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happens over night doesn't necessarily mean how the US will either open or close
2010-10-28 18:06:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: The worst right now is the RUT, with new lows by a couple of pts now
2010-10-28 18:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't have the stomach to watch over night
2010-10-28 18:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would drive me bonkers
2010-10-28 18:07:11 [Message] darris -> Chat: agreed, but it is a surprising drop
2010-10-28 18:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a couple of stocks
2010-10-28 18:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could also be end of month
2010-10-28 18:07:29 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: RUT has been in a range with a possible false move up of the range Monday
2010-10-28 18:07:41 [Message] darris -> Chat: End of month is a huge thing this year
2010-10-28 18:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we'll have to watch them all and see what happens
2010-10-28 18:07:50 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: If it moves under I think it will break to the downside
2010-10-28 18:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...time for me to say good bye
2010-10-28 18:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remind everyone...VOTE!
2010-10-28 18:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I already voted 3 weeks ago
2010-10-28 18:08:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will do!
2010-10-28 18:08:23 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I am Danish!
2010-10-28 18:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be glad when this is all over
2010-10-28 18:08:27 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Cannot vote
2010-10-28 18:08:30 [Message] darris -> Chat: We will Vote before we speak again, take care.
2010-10-28 18:08:32 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-28 18:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: @ Tonny
2010-10-28 18:08:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: Be good all
2010-10-28 18:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2010-10-28 18:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are on Tuesday
2010-10-28 18:08:55 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Thanks for the great coverage
2010-10-28 18:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch