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Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-10-28 19:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-10-28 19:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-10-28 19:00:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Good...Bear market has bull market has begun.....
2008-10-28 19:00:46 [Message] lew -> Main Room: LOL
2008-10-28 19:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure looks that way!
2008-10-28 19:00:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fib!!!
2008-10-28 19:01:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not
2008-10-28 19:01:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: going to a flat
2008-10-28 19:01:07 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What, a skeptic in the crowd?
2008-10-28 19:01:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fun day, huh?
2008-10-28 19:01:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: But what is the count??
2008-10-28 19:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can go either way now
2008-10-28 19:02:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if you didn't look at the point totals some things that didn't make much sense
2008-10-28 19:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: such as?
2008-10-28 19:02:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: either way in terms of going to make a minor 4 meaning minute 5 done?
2008-10-28 19:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be, yes
2008-10-28 19:02:48 [Message] lew -> Main Room: breadth 3.5 to 1 on an 800 point up day
2008-10-28 19:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's think about this for a moment
2008-10-28 19:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had 4 price objectives based on the measuring gap
2008-10-28 19:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first was 899 - which turned out to be the end of the center point of 3
2008-10-28 19:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the second was 851...we closed at 848 yesterday
2008-10-28 19:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, at this point, what we do know is that gap theory is working properly
2008-10-28 19:04:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what about not making a new low - no 5 - what's the new count if the old one is wrong
2008-10-28 19:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the price pattern internals, it could had been a sloppy 5th wave finishing up yesterday with the 848 price low
2008-10-28 19:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the larger count hasn't changed
2008-10-28 19:05:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thought you don't believe in truncated 5's and running corrections
2008-10-28 19:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 5 higher than 3?
2008-10-28 19:05:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah, we never made a new low
2008-10-28 19:05:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What about the 3rd and 4th objectives?
2008-10-28 19:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we did make a lower low at the close yesterday
2008-10-28 19:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott aside, the measuring gap still has two downside objectives still yet to be met
2008-10-28 19:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 724 and 588
2008-10-28 19:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I think it would more beneficial to throw Elliott aside for today and look at the internals
2008-10-28 19:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for this is where we're going to find our substance
2008-10-28 19:07:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: why if your flat theory was your highest probability, why is that out of the question now
2008-10-28 19:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: didn't say it was
2008-10-28 19:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might be an irregular flat - something we discussed last Thursday
2008-10-28 19:07:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: A was first 1000 point, this is C
2008-10-28 19:07:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in this C we are in wave 3 up
2008-10-28 19:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be...but the 5 minute data has a bit of a problem as far as impulse is concerned
2008-10-28 19:08:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: vix on last 1000 pt day dropped 25 pts, today 15
2008-10-28 19:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking about the presumed 1st wave of this same "C" wave
2008-10-28 19:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-10-28 19:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very interesting
2008-10-28 19:08:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and adv decline was poop for a 900pt day
2008-10-28 19:09:01 [Message] lew -> Main Room: we have yet to even reach the zero lines
2008-10-28 19:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 78% up day...not too bad
2008-10-28 19:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhh...there we go...correct Lew
2008-10-28 19:09:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: also, the small caps, severely underperformed
2008-10-28 19:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhh (again) there you go Dave
2008-10-28 19:09:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and mcsums kept making new lows
2008-10-28 19:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-28 19:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yep
2008-10-28 19:09:49 [Message] lew -> Main Room: summation still dropping
2008-10-28 19:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember, when the market is as severely compressed as it is, these kind of reflex rallies will come out of the blue
2008-10-28 19:10:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep, like wave 4's
2008-10-28 19:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be, yes
2008-10-28 19:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...before we get started
2008-10-28 19:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as many of you know, the fashion industry has a history of leading the market by about 3-4 months as far as what type of environment we should be looking for later on down the line
2008-10-28 19:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...I'm going to bring up a link for you to review the first of what Spring 2009 is showing right now
2008-10-28 19:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when you get to the page, click on the first picture on the left (in the center), and when it comes up, you can switch it to "slideshow"
2008-10-28 19:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one sec...and remember, this is only one designer so far...ready? -
2008-10-28 19:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while others are checking it out, are there any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-10-28 19:14:05 [Message] lew -> Main Room: OUCH!
2008-10-28 19:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hehe
2008-10-28 19:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep looking - it gets better
2008-10-28 19:14:21 [Message] lew -> Main Room: funeral wear?
2008-10-28 19:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-28 19:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember, this is for SPRING!!
2008-10-28 19:14:46 [Message] lew -> Main Room: no short skirts, I see
2008-10-28 19:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope
2008-10-28 19:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good catch
2008-10-28 19:15:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 1930's theme
2008-10-28 19:15:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Boy, is that some ugalee stuff
2008-10-28 19:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another good catch
2008-10-28 19:15:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: homeless theme
2008-10-28 19:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shall we say..."depressing"?
2008-10-28 19:15:20 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Don't think that designer will be in business very long
2008-10-28 19:15:29 [Message] lew -> Main Room: YES
2008-10-28 19:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this IS fashion
2008-10-28 19:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the make up jobs as well
2008-10-28 19:15:45 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Are the Goths taking over?
2008-10-28 19:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all sad and all black
2008-10-28 19:15:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah my wife was in the business, typical runway stuff
2008-10-28 19:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: something in which you would only see during the winter
2008-10-28 19:16:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: we come
2008-10-28 19:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like Lew pointed out, you see complete coverage of the body
2008-10-28 19:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will keep you updated, but I was floored
2008-10-28 19:16:58 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what point does that make?
2008-10-28 19:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I've been in this business for 37 years and have never seen so much glum for spring
2008-10-28 19:17:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: covering of body? defensive?
2008-10-28 19:17:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: ya, that full coverage stuff for spring dull too
2008-10-28 19:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Fashion is an extension of the psychology of the masses
2008-10-28 19:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like entertainment
2008-10-28 19:17:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: good thing I'm in Miami, they only wear halter tops and skin tights
2008-10-28 19:17:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: or maybe.........thats bad
2008-10-28 19:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Fashion also trickles down colors to other areas...home furnishings, for example
2008-10-28 19:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ahhh...but in Miami
2008-10-28 19:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what I would be looking for to happen there is that night wear will probably look very similar come spring
2008-10-28 19:18:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: clubbing...or just going out for dinner
2008-10-28 19:19:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah, the south beachers and clubbers
2008-10-28 19:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-28 19:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...this is only one designer's idea of what he believes will be deemed "fashionable" come next spring
2008-10-28 19:19:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that stuff wont fly here, it's not typical of the rest of the u.s. in terms of fashion
2008-10-28 19:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll keep an eye on it
2008-10-28 19:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I will disagree - been around too long to know better
2008-10-28 19:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember, many folks follow the Hollywood's lead
2008-10-28 19:20:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: Miami is cheesy, very little fashion sense, unless your are on south beach
2008-10-28 19:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...on the mainland, probably - especially the North side, but the South side is is over the causeways
2008-10-28 19:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...we'll see how things look like as we move along...but I thought it was interesting
2008-10-28 19:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in an Elliott sense, very telling
2008-10-28 19:22:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so fashion internals say wave 4?
2008-10-28 19:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2008-10-28 19:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: internals give us the mood of the masses later on
2008-10-28 19:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Stock Market plays catch up as these moods become reality
2008-10-28 19:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...does anyone actually feel, in their day to day life, what the stock market's crash has given us yet?
2008-10-28 19:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...there is concern, maybe fear
2008-10-28 19:23:49 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i can tell you what its taken
2008-10-28 19:23:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: many peoples retirements and savings
2008-10-28 19:23:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no, not yet, but will be end of whirl as we know it
2008-10-28 19:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it takes a bit of time before there are actual ways to project this same mood
2008-10-28 19:24:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: color is so important as people will wear how they feel
2008-10-28 19:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's get started
2008-10-28 19:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after piercing just below the reaction lows from the 10/10 bottom yesterday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today
2008-10-28 19:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we now have the possibility of bull divergence in place
2008-10-28 19:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what would confirm this same divergence would be a move above the spike highs just above the zero line that we had about a week ago
2008-10-28 19:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving down to the CO NYSE breadth MCO components, and we continue to be on a cross over sell signal, and both remain well below their zero lines
2008-10-28 19:31:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and mco co nyse below declining tops?
2008-10-28 19:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, if anything, today's move higher was, more than likely, a simple snapback to or towards the zero line
2008-10-28 19:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and yes, tops beneath tops continue to control the pattern
2008-10-28 19:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so although we had a 10% rise on the majors today
2008-10-28 19:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this was all part of a larger correctional far
2008-10-28 19:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and what the TRIN's will probably suggest, that of simple short covering
2008-10-28 19:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unlike the CO data, the composite NYSE breadth MCO did not move below the reaction lows yesterday, and snapped back to or towards the zero line
2008-10-28 19:34:51 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: fib if we continue to rally will we not leave some bull divergences in place
2008-10-28 19:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes Chris...we have the possibility, but not the probability, of bull divergence
2008-10-28 19:36:38 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: how do you assess probability?
2008-10-28 19:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probability is based on work ethic
2008-10-28 19:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's only possible now
2008-10-28 19:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first confirmation would be a move above the spike zero line highs of last week
2008-10-28 19:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less...the breaking of trendlines...this kind of thing
2008-10-28 19:38:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the one thing we don't want to do as traders is "lead off"
2008-10-28 19:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with oscillators, there's always going to be times in where the physics of the market will only allow lower amplitudes
2008-10-28 19:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for example
2008-10-28 19:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you get highly "oversold" or "overbought", the odds of seeing even higher numbers is very low as you can only stretch a rubber band only so far
2008-10-28 19:40:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as well as the math that goes into making up oscillators in the first place
2008-10-28 19:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we can eyeball something and say it's "possible"
2008-10-28 19:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but until we get better all around confirmation that a turn is near by, where it can become probable, we have to allow the market to prove it's intentions to us
2008-10-28 19:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "work ethic"
2008-10-28 19:41:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, if you hadn't looked at the mco's tonight, would you have thought the mcsums would have headed higher or at least sideways on a 900 pt up day?
2008-10-28 19:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: absolutely not
2008-10-28 19:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the math wouldn't allow it
2008-10-28 19:42:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what about the the vix dropping half as much from i think a higher level as it did the last 900 pt up day? what does that say, if anything?
2008-10-28 19:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the surface though, what's a 900 point move anyway?
2008-10-28 19:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it says that the panic is easing to buy puts at any price
2008-10-28 19:43:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: by dropping less?
2008-10-28 19:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...3rd waves always have the highest amount of implied volatility and they diverge with 5th waves
2008-10-28 19:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dropping less means that people weren't trying to all go through a revolving door at one time
2008-10-28 19:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the crowd starting to thin out
2008-10-28 19:44:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: basing structures will do that
2008-10-28 19:44:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a higher level of fear after this 900 pt up day than the last?
2008-10-28 19:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the VIX moves lower, the fear factor drops
2008-10-28 19:45:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i understand, what I'm saying is it dropped half the amount today as it did 2 weeks ago on the other 900 pt up day
2008-10-28 19:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the VIX measures this implied volatility by the spread of premiums between the bid and the ask
2008-10-28 19:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...sorry - I read it another way
2008-10-28 19:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...that could be based on several reasons
2008-10-28 19:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when you say "half", do you mean percentage wise of by the numbers??
2008-10-28 19:46:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i think both, or there abouts
2008-10-28 19:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (I guess I'll have to bring up a sec)
2008-10-28 19:47:26 [Message] dave -> Main Room: both
2008-10-28 19:47:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: from a higher level today, with more room underneath than last time
2008-10-28 19:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol - looks like I have to do a little rescaling
2008-10-28 19:48:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not sure, but close to inside day today on vix
2008-10-28 19:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the VIX peaks at the end of third waves
2008-10-28 19:48:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if not, its close, a couple of pennies
2008-10-28 19:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so during the center point of a third wave, the 5th wave of this same information will have the higher high
2008-10-28 19:48:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would expect a 900 pt rally to drop the vix a whole lot more than it did
2008-10-28 19:49:00 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: but VIX reflects option pricing; puts got expensive, and everyone thought we're near a bottom
2008-10-28 19:49:06 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: so not many puts actually traded...
2008-10-28 19:49:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the rally didn't get started until after lunch
2008-10-28 19:49:27 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: so VIX 'misleading' if you care about 'volume' and capitulation, IMO
2008-10-28 19:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed mojave
2008-10-28 19:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the fear factor that the VIX gives us is only based on what people will spend to buy an option
2008-10-28 19:50:13 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: put/call not reflective of typical bottoms... but maybe this won't be a typical bottom?
2008-10-28 19:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that could be too
2008-10-28 19:50:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: every psychological pt you made about a wave 4 is what is exactly happening
2008-10-28 19:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, whose to say that since we're global now, that our markets don't have to have the properties that we used to see for a bottom...while other markets do
2008-10-28 19:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed, but I'm flexible as well
2008-10-28 19:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I try to give all sides and let you make the decisions
2008-10-28 19:51:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I am but a mere conduit
2008-10-28 19:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my job is to share what I see what the market is whispering
2008-10-28 19:52:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: to address what mojave just said, we failed (so far) to have the intraday capitulation that everyone was looking for, and now, all the pundits are saying that this won't be like the other times, that perhaps that Friday wasn't a typical bottom, a few more of those calls and we are ripe
2008-10-28 19:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's true too
2008-10-28 19:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...may I suggest...that we're in a market environment that is very rare
2008-10-28 19:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that a crash
2008-10-28 19:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crashes have no reason to them
2008-10-28 19:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you know that the Dow has had a triple digit closes every day in October except two?
2008-10-28 19:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: amazing
2008-10-28 19:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the cause?
2008-10-28 19:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the lack of liquidity
2008-10-28 19:53:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i just dont see how a 900 pt rally, without going deeply red first is a bottom, it goes against every principle
2008-10-28 19:54:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: forget the 900 points
2008-10-28 19:54:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: no key reversal
2008-10-28 19:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just like the 1000 points we saw last week
2008-10-28 19:54:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: EXACTLY!
2008-10-28 19:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it means nothing until the broad market is stable
2008-10-28 19:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just a number
2008-10-28 19:54:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right, that got reversed in two days last time
2008-10-28 19:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "a piece of cheese at the end of a maze"
2008-10-28 19:55:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: maybe this one a little longer
2008-10-28 19:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to be reasonable here
2008-10-28 19:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is setting record extremes right now and we have to expect extraordinary things to happen
2008-10-28 19:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the patient is one sick puppy
2008-10-28 19:56:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: last two weeks of this consolidation, it has more than once turned bulls into bears and bears into bulls, exactly what you called for, has anything changed?
2008-10-28 19:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and until we stabilize, we're going to get these kind of pressure valve releases
2008-10-28 19:56:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you tell me - has it?
2008-10-28 19:57:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not that i can see, but I'm only one
2008-10-28 19:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem for most of us is that we're not patient
2008-10-28 19:58:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I don't see a lot of changed coats
2008-10-28 19:58:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i think more bulls come to play as we get closer and possibly above 1000 spx
2008-10-28 19:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's move on
2008-10-28 19:59:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: only to have it taken from them
2008-10-28 19:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after making lower lows yesterday, the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved higher today
2008-10-28 20:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO components, we continue to see that we're deeply "oversold" at the current time, and beginning to build "texture" to the pattern
2008-10-28 20:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as a reminder, both of the McClellan tools give us a visual representation of the A/D line in relation to two EMA measurements
2008-10-28 20:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO measures the speed in which these two EMA's (the 19 and 39 day EMA's) are moving towards or away from each other
2008-10-28 20:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM measures the distance there is between these same EMA's
2008-10-28 20:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if you visualize this EMA configuration, as shown by these same McClellan tools, you get a pretty good idea of where we are in the bigger scheme of things
2008-10-28 20:05:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we do get bull divergence in the next couple of days, we're certainly not in any position to start any kind of lasting uptrend as it relates to price
2008-10-28 20:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we remain very heavy here, and this must remain our focus
2008-10-28 20:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these whipsaw days are just part of the bigger picture and not the start of anything worth trading on
2008-10-28 20:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you're a day trader, it's great fun
2008-10-28 20:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but if you're an investor, there's nothing even close in suggesting that this is a time in which you should be buying
2008-10-28 20:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take a lot of time to settle here
2008-10-28 20:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and keeping in the back of your mind
2008-10-28 20:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that even if the MCSUM turns higher here, we still have a long ways to go just to see the 19 day EMA to even come close to the 39 day EMA
2008-10-28 20:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is why prices can and will continue lower even in the face of a rising MCSUM
2008-10-28 20:08:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, i read the chat from the day after the first 900 pt up day, where we gapped up 400 and reversed, you were talking about short entries and such, were you more confident of the "near" term direction 2 weeks ago than now or was the data giving a more clear picture??
2008-10-28 20:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure...the trend was undeniable as we had broken our "critical bull market" line in the sand on the MCO
2008-10-28 20:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what happened on 10/6 is that the market made it very clear that the assumption that we were seeing a bull market correction was not the correct one and it's going to take many months now to establish another foundation
2008-10-28 20:10:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i ask b/c earlier in chat, you were questioning whether the minute 5 is over, a minor 4 can be 2500 dow pts and can be as large as any bull market we have seen of late, this is why i ask
2008-10-28 20:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could
2008-10-28 20:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why the use of Elliott shouldn't be the primarily focus
2008-10-28 20:11:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: probability in terms of % in your opinion?
2008-10-28 20:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't day does not give me enough of an idea to give this kind of answer
2008-10-28 20:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first priority, is money flow
2008-10-28 20:12:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Isn't the critical bull market line still broken? that is, new lows to come? As indicated by MCO new flag low?
2008-10-28 20:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: second priority is how this same money flow might equate in any mark up
2008-10-28 20:12:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes TM
2008-10-28 20:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that line was was the day we collapsed and the A/D line led the charge
2008-10-28 20:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we knew this was something that might happen as early as 10/2
2008-10-28 20:13:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that's the issue trademark, a minor 4 still has a minor 5 to come, so the lower low can be near term, or further away
2008-10-28 20:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it can...don't let this Elliott stuff obsess you - trade the pattern
2008-10-28 20:13:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not obsessing, but its easiest way to discuss the opinion b/c its been discussed here
2008-10-28 20:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand
2008-10-28 20:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I don't want it to become your focus
2008-10-28 20:14:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: elliot shmelliot, it's impossible to count in this consolidation, even after the fact
2008-10-28 20:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do know...right that we are still in a larger third wave decline
2008-10-28 20:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why Elliott is so difficult as the market is correcting 80% of the time
2008-10-28 20:14:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, thats what i was looking for
2008-10-28 20:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and many have this "impulse" to be ready for a 3rd or 5th wave, but you have to allow the market to tell us it's intentions
2008-10-28 20:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if it fits, great
2008-10-28 20:15:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if not...I rather make money
2008-10-28 20:15:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 3rd or 5th?
2008-10-28 20:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: doesn't matter...the point is that most people who attempt to use Elliott are always looking for a 3rd or 5th wave
2008-10-28 20:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rarely do you see an Elliott reference without "3rd wave" somewhere in there
2008-10-28 20:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then when it comes, many still don't recognize it as such until...the end
2008-10-28 20:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO also moved higher today and has left behind a small series of bottoms above bottoms
2008-10-28 20:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the components, we remain well under water here
2008-10-28 20:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so even if we see the MCO move above the zero line near term, it's not going to have the kind of follow through one would look for a change in trend
2008-10-28 20:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it will be corrective
2008-10-28 20:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like it is right now
2008-10-28 20:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why it's only a "possibility" of bull divergence
2008-10-28 20:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the components were closer to their zero lines, then it would become "probable"
2008-10-28 20:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what I meant by "work ethic"
2008-10-28 20:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have bottom above bottoms in place on the SPX breadth MCO
2008-10-28 20:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for those who maybe wondering
2008-10-28 20:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless any of these MCO's are able to take their spike highs of last week
2008-10-28 20:21:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave is this similar to when an rsi reading hits extremes, like 90 or 10 that you still see higher price highs and lower price highs, that the divergence doesn't end up being divergence?
2008-10-28 20:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you should not expect the price patterns to do the same as breadth leads price and not the other way around
2008-10-28 20:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...if by chance, we do see higher highs than that of last week, the MCO's are out below
2008-10-28 20:22:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the components are added together to give us a MCO reading
2008-10-28 20:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: without these additives supporting this same quotient, it's unlikely that market will be able to pull away from it's path of least resistance
2008-10-28 20:22:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so you are saying that even if the mco's make new swing highs, that the mco's are lagging? and that we should be ready for imminent fall?
2008-10-28 20:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if prices move above their highs of 10/14, and the MCO's do not move above their spike highs of this same time period, then watch out below
2008-10-28 20:24:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it must all work together
2008-10-28 20:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the engine must be able to lead move the car forward
2008-10-28 20:24:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and if price and mco do?
2008-10-28 20:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then we have confirmation of a trend change
2008-10-28 20:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: confirmation of what? we'll have to see
2008-10-28 20:24:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: of divergence, but what can be expected from that?
2008-10-28 20:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we have bull divergence, then the market will be able (at least for a short time) be able to keep from moving in the direction of the path of least resistance
2008-10-28 20:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this divergence is only of short term duration
2008-10-28 20:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: intermediate term, we won't be able to mount any kind of tradable rally
2008-10-28 20:26:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: short term is in terms of hours? days? weeks?
2008-10-28 20:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, we would more than likely get another trading range
2008-10-28 20:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the short term traders trying to bid prices up - the intermediate term traders not showing much in the way of interest
2008-10-28 20:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chop
2008-10-28 20:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything must move in one cohesive direction to follow "A" path
2008-10-28 20:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether it's up or down
2008-10-28 20:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now, the bears continue to be fully in charge in both time periods
2008-10-28 20:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while the bulls are trying to break down the troops
2008-10-28 20:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take time
2008-10-28 20:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I wouldn't expect any kind of tradable rally from here until next spring at the earliest
2008-10-28 20:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's only based if we're all done which the evidence suggests otherwise
2008-10-28 20:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX breadth MCO also moved higher today
2008-10-28 20:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if you look a little closer at the 21 day data, you will see that we were able to move up above the small blip in the MCO pattern created in the last couple of days
2008-10-28 20:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest that we'll probably get some follow through tomorrow
2008-10-28 20:34:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe FED related...but this would be our near term technical expectation...a challenge of the recent spike highs in the MCO
2008-10-28 20:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX components remain heavy, so we might be looking at maybe one more day of firmness before a resumption to the downside
2008-10-28 20:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how high price might go before this resumption, is hard to tell and other ways to measure such targets should be used
2008-10-28 20:35:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a close on the highs tomorrow, would that be a short entry? near 1000 spx?
2008-10-28 20:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: example...a 5 day RSI
2008-10-28 20:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I believe that we have had enough experience in the last two weeks in not being so proactive in opening positions
2008-10-28 20:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would wait for confirmation of a turn first and not assume that we can't go even higher
2008-10-28 20:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, we are still VERY "oversold" here
2008-10-28 20:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and are open to short covering spikes (or bursts) during such times
2008-10-28 20:36:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the reason i ask is we are having 300-500 pt gap ups and downs. that's a lot of point
2008-10-28 20:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...but the market has been retracing much of these opening gaps in the first hour or so
2008-10-28 20:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better to wait and let European trading work its way through the system, and then take a look around
2008-10-28 20:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I like to wait until after the 1st hour
2008-10-28 20:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this way you have all of the data that's going to be released out of the way and those who trade off this same data have committed
2008-10-28 20:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at today
2008-10-28 20:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we were up some 250 Dow points at the open, and when the 1st hour was over, we were about even
2008-10-28 20:39:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: my i ask an Elliott question, or is he shunned for the evening
2008-10-28 20:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure
2008-10-28 20:39:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if it turns out to be an abc flat of minute 4, the structure of minute 5 would be a 5 wave, yes?
2008-10-28 20:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes (that was easy)
2008-10-28 20:40:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: figured, just wanted to get confirmation
2008-10-28 20:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as an aside, all "C" waves, except in triangles and diagonals, are 5 wave affairs
2008-10-28 20:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "C" waves are the same as 3rd waves
2008-10-28 20:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the difference being that "C" waves end the correctional process...3rd waves extend the trend
2008-10-28 20:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, if we're in a flat, and this is "C" up, it should unwind in a 5 wave "impulsive" looking structure
2008-10-28 20:42:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: also, this minute 4 that we could be in, that would be a 535 structured correction?
2008-10-28 20:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: would be a Flat - 3-3-5
2008-10-28 20:43:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 3 up, 3 down, 5 up
2008-10-28 20:43:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hmm, b/c the move to A of minute 4, looked impulsive
2008-10-28 20:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still fits
2008-10-28 20:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: was 3 waves
2008-10-28 20:43:45 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, ill take your word for it, (it's what i want) lol
2008-10-28 20:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the velocity was so great, that it didn't have time to fully form on the daily
2008-10-28 20:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same thing happens in 2nd waves before the point of a 3 of 3 acceleration up or down
2008-10-28 20:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving pass the Dow (which is pretty much the same as the OEX)
2008-10-28 20:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCO also moved higher today after perceptively breaking below last weeks reaction lows
2008-10-28 20:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can see how weak this group of stocks continue to be
2008-10-28 20:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and why, if one were looking for a reason why we can't have a substantive rally here, is that without the broader market leading the way, the cream stocks can only do so much
2008-10-28 20:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we have seen time after time in the last 15 months what can happen when the cream stocks are leading the charge higher (it's not very pretty)
2008-10-28 20:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which leads us into the SML breadth MCO and the extreme weakness there
2008-10-28 20:48:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: today, yen dropped most against the dollar since 1974
2008-10-28 20:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and also makes it very clear that there is a low amount of money available for investment
2008-10-28 20:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: must be because they've decided that "short selling" is a no no
2008-10-28 20:49:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: any thoughts on fed's move tomorrow
2008-10-28 20:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:'s a difficult call
2008-10-28 20:49:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: japan is talking about cutting rates to .25 this Friday from .5
2008-10-28 20:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on one hand, it would be highly unlikely to see a move by the FED with less than a week before elections
2008-10-28 20:49:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wonder if it's jawboning, or for real
2008-10-28 20:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other, many have priced in a 1/2 point cut - in which today's advance could be a lead off
2008-10-28 20:50:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: don't see why fed would not cut rates when they cut a week before the meeting, last time they did this, the cut by 175 basis pts in 8 days
2008-10-28 20:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and still on the other...if they cut, that doesn't leave much more room to do anything in this area in the future
2008-10-28 20:51:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not like last 400 pts of cuts did anything anyways
2008-10-28 20:51:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (wait, I only have 2 hands! )
2008-10-28 20:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I haven't looked at the overnights...let me take a quick peak
2008-10-28 20:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whatcha think?
2008-10-28 20:52:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: fed typically does not like to kill momentum, if today they see a 900 pt day, and we have another up day tomorrow, can't see them disappointing
2008-10-28 20:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks like a 1/4 point
2008-10-28 20:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...if they do cut, that would also be admitting on what they have already done may not be working
2008-10-28 20:53:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that might spook traders
2008-10-28 20:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no cut may mean that things are stablizing
2008-10-28 20:53:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah, they don't know that
2008-10-28 20:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...tough call
2008-10-28 20:53:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 50 factored in fed funds
2008-10-28 20:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know if I would want to use up all of my "tweaking" ammunition right now
2008-10-28 20:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I know - and no cut would disappoint...or would it?
2008-10-28 20:54:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 100% chance factored in for 50, (not that it means anything)
2008-10-28 20:54:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: first reaction would be disappointment
2008-10-28 20:54:49 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I highly doubt it's 50
2008-10-28 20:54:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: after settling in, i think rally, next day
2008-10-28 20:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's just a market's opinion of what a committee might do - a committe who tends to be behind the times (and why were in this situation to begin with)
2008-10-28 20:55:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: quarter is safest bet for them
2008-10-28 20:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a quarter would give then another 1 1/4% to go before it reaches near zero
2008-10-28 20:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the overnights suggest a 1/4%
2008-10-28 20:55:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: not too much, not too little in terms of psychology, at least for the hour and 45 min, till the day closes
2008-10-28 20:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the lead in to the announcement is always fun to watch on the 1 minute chart...looking forward to tomorrows
2008-10-28 20:56:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a quarter would leave us .75% away from being japan
2008-10-28 20:57:00 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: financial tv suggested today's rally based on .50, 'FED can't afford to disappoint in this environment' - we'll see...
2008-10-28 20:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you think about all that they've done so far, to cut again...I don't would worry me
2008-10-28 20:57:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, you were looking at one more day of follow through, does that mean on a closing basis? or follow through intraday
2008-10-28 20:58:00 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: It's settled then, they cut .25 and the market does not like it.... lol
2008-10-28 20:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in this environment, it's hard to tell Dave as things are moving so quickly
2008-10-28 20:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably TM
2008-10-28 20:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whatever the market wants to use as an excuse to fit the technicals...that's fine with me
2008-10-28 20:58:57 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: earnings, FED, election... anything can happen here...
2008-10-28 20:59:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, maybe replay of the Tuesday after last 900 pt - gapped up 400 pts, ended red
2008-10-28 20:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's also end of the month and many managers get paid on their "performance"
2008-10-28 21:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then there's some who can't wait too much longer because of borrowing costs
2008-10-28 21:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone notice that all of the MCSUM's are below the -1500 level now?
2008-10-28 21:01:34 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes I did
2008-10-28 21:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after giving a near term reversal signal yesterday, the CVI's are just north of neutral now
2008-10-28 21:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's and VTO's remain "oversold"
2008-10-28 21:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still looks like a relief rally
2008-10-28 21:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my my
2008-10-28 21:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .20
2008-10-28 21:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't even remember a lower reading
2008-10-28 21:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyone?
2008-10-28 21:03:30 [Message] lew -> Main Room: nope
2008-10-28 21:03:35 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: went even lower than last time I saw it
2008-10-28 21:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: amazing
2008-10-28 21:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...we'll go with it
2008-10-28 21:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.01
2008-10-28 21:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still a bit on the "oversold" side, but if we get another reading like today, we could move to "overbought" rather quickly
2008-10-28 21:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at .34
2008-10-28 21:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...they were covering with both hands today
2008-10-28 21:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .90
2008-10-28 21:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now neutral
2008-10-28 21:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at .30
2008-10-28 21:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .98
2008-10-28 21:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and all of the Open 10's have divergent bottoms in place
2008-10-28 21:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it wasn't for the MCO breakdown, I would be getting quite excited here
2008-10-28 21:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but, alas, it did
2008-10-28 21:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line...we might get a test of the highs of 10/14, but we're going to need more escape velocity to do it
2008-10-28 21:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that would mean breadth plurality
2008-10-28 21:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today was good as a start...but we need much more
2008-10-28 21:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCSUM's as low as they are, this would not be an expectation to happen
2008-10-28 21:07:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: need more escape velocity?
2008-10-28 21:07:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: definition
2008-10-28 21:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are always in a bear market
2008-10-28 21:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order to break free of this default, there must be enough energy in the opposite direction to break it's hold on prices
2008-10-28 21:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of the space shuttle
2008-10-28 21:08:54 [Message] doc -> Main Room: are you saying the even a test of the 10/14 highs is not an expectation to happen, or to exceed those highs and breakout?
2008-10-28 21:08:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in order for it to escape Earth's gravity, it must have enough thrust to do this
2008-10-28 21:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we do break above the 10/14 highs, it will probably be short lived
2008-10-28 21:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a rally failure will result
2008-10-28 21:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and another retest
2008-10-28 21:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the gravitation pull right now is that of Jupiter's
2008-10-28 21:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just overwhelming to break away with only one divergent retest
2008-10-28 21:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take a whole lot more of a platform to do so
2008-10-28 21:10:43 [Message] doc -> Main Room: probably a mcsum divergence?
2008-10-28 21:10:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be ideal
2008-10-28 21:11:04 [Message] doc -> Main Room: too bad, we had that in sept.
2008-10-28 21:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...anything else?
2008-10-28 21:12:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: great class dave, i was getting a little worried in the first 10 minutes........
2008-10-28 21:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: much of this is going to sloppy for a while until we see some stability
2008-10-28 21:12:29 [Message] lew -> Main Room: excellent, thanks fib
2008-10-28 21:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we just have to be a little more patient
2008-10-28 21:12:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: can you look at one etf chart?
2008-10-28 21:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too many folks thinking they have the direction licked
2008-10-28 21:13:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Wonder how US rates will be when people figure out we need all the savings of all the world the world to buy US Bonds?
2008-10-28 21:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good question
2008-10-28 21:13:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one...go
2008-10-28 21:13:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: oih
2008-10-28 21:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one sec
2008-10-28 21:13:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: (near term and short term) i know what it looks like otherwise, like everything else
2008-10-28 21:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-28 21:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you want to know?
2008-10-28 21:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you looking to scale in?
2008-10-28 21:14:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, have calls that i plan to sell tomorrow that i bought today
2008-10-28 21:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the chart is definitely bearish
2008-10-28 21:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would selling calls
2008-10-28 21:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe around the 20 day EMA
2008-10-28 21:15:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i will sell my calls to close, and most likely sell calls to open
2008-10-28 21:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I's going to take time to mount up any kind of rally here
2008-10-28 21:16:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that's what i was looking for, a move to 100
2008-10-28 21:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: treat the chart like any other
2008-10-28 21:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the trend is down
2008-10-28 21:16:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was just a c up trade
2008-10-28 21:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we get a retracement to the 20 day EMA
2008-10-28 21:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the RSI is still below 50%
2008-10-28 21:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sell the calls
2008-10-28 21:16:53 [Message] doc -> Main Room: Dave, in retrospect, 10/14 gap open was the perfect time to go short as the NDX filled the breakaway gap? Do you see another place that would be reasonable for a short entry with a stop?
2008-10-28 21:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise...wait for a set up
2008-10-28 21:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would use that same gap as a reference
2008-10-28 21:17:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: set ups for positions, oversold rally buying a few calls for a day
2008-10-28 21:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's were the vacuum was created that turned the longer term action from bull to bear
2008-10-28 21:17:44 [Message] doc -> Main Room: thanks
2008-10-28 21:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to take off
2008-10-28 21:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great Wednesday
2008-10-28 21:17:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: thanks dave
2008-10-28 21:17:59 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you too
2008-10-28 21:18:01 [Message] doc -> Main Room: have a good evening, Fib
2008-10-28 21:18:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2008-10-28 21:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night

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