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fib_1618

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A big THANK YOU for "rite01" (Mike) for forwarding Tuesday's transcripts to me. The status there looks like the vendor had its problems with their e-mail server, but things look to be back to normal this morning. My apologies again for the delay...keeping my fingers, toes and eyes crossed that things are better moving forward.

good day

how is everyone?

OK...any questions or comments before we get started??

rite01: is the NYSE co price bar a mid range signal?

rite01: today's bar when we get to it

 we'll see in a second

 OK...let's get SC up and get started

 after peaking out on Friday

 the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved down and through its zero line today

 as it also broke below the rising bottoms line of the MCO itself

 looking at the components

 and we see that the 10% moved below its zero line as well

 while the 5% Trend still remains above this same demarcation line between a positive and negative trend

 this would indicate a correctional sequence

 with the price bar on the NYA finding near term support on its rising bottoms line from the early October lows

 the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM peaked out on Monday at just below the important +250 level

 which is also the horizontal resistance level since the end of May

 this would also mean

 that the NYSE CO advance/decline line is still holding below its declining trendline at this time

 so a rather poor showing for commons

 moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO

 and here we see that the broader market remains quite buoyant at this time

 as the MCO Components here remain well above their zero line

 although the MCO itself moved just slightly below its zero line with a -8 reading

 we do have a negative crossover in the components as well

 and we finished the day right at the rising bottoms line for the MCO itself

 so the interest rate sensitive issues continue to pull their collective weight at the current time

 looking at the NYA price bar itself

 and have a mid range close today

 so a technical bounce to the upside would be expected on Wednesday

 between the mid range close

rite01: thanks

 and the fact that the MCO is likely to see a zero line bounce

 for the bulls

 they now need to see a good pop to the upside off any bounce we see on Wednesday

 and ideally

 break above both the short term declining tops line

 and with it

 a move above last week's high point to keep the trend alive

 the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved back below its zero line today

 while the components moved back into a negative crossover configuration below the 10% and 5%'s zero line

 unlike the NYA

 the NASDAQ fulfilled its upside price target on Friday given earlier this month

 and with the negative position of both the MCO and its components

 we could see the finishing touches of an island reversal on Wednesday

 we have a Fed Statement on Wednesday?

 I think so

 let me check

 yes...the 28th

 anyway

rite01: yes 2 pm ET

we also have the expectation of a pullback down toward the 200 day EMA on the price charts for the NASDAQ, Dow and SPX in play as well

so that could be what we saw today

 and when no increase in the short term rate is announced

 we could move sharply to the upside...especially if the statement goes back to "extended time"

 don't know if they will

but we still have a bit more momentum to move higher here on before we see a more prolonged retracement

 the NDX remains strong

 how were Apple's earnings?

 I was guessing up 25% today with a friend of mine today

 let me check

 up 31%

 (poor Apple)

 they sold only 48 million iPhones last quarter

 tsk tsk

 that's 530,000 a DAY

 times...the suggested retail price of around $700 us

 wow...I broke my calculator! [smile]

 rite01: apple sells those too

 anyway...nice quarter

 yea...it's in their phones and iPads

 pretty soon

 that's all you'll need to keep on your person

 no more wallets...your whole life in the palm of your hand

 back to the NDX

 and see that it continues to look very strong in the index

 and we could get pretty close to the all time price highs on any further flexing of the bull muscles over the near term

 the rising bottoms line on the NDX MCO is at the zero line right now

 we'll see if it joins the party in breaking to the downside or not on Wednesday

 the SPX met it's upside price target on Friday

 and has since pulled back

 with the good news that the SPX breadth MCO still remains above its zero line

 but the bad news is that it perceptively closed below its rising bottoms line today

 SPX MCO Components still remain positive

 as the SPX breadth MCSUM moved up and through its zero line on Monday

 we'll call today a mid range bar as well

 so we'll look for a higher close on Wednesday

rite01: you mean MCSUM through it's 500 line right?

yes...thank you for the correction

up and through the +500 level

just testing to see if you were awake

you get a gold star!

rite01: so far so good 

moving to the OEX breadth MCO

and here two things remain constructive for the buyers

the current positions of the OEX components above their zero lines

and the OEX breadth MCSUM is now a day away from reaching its next area of natural resistance at the +750 level

so this will be a good near test on what kind of buying character we have at the current time

same thing with the Dow breadth MCO and its components

while the Dow breadth MCSUM has now reached its target of +1000

so like the OEX

we could be seeing some near term resistance at these levels given how the NYSE MCO's moved below their zero lines today

we can also add the MID breadth MCO to this list of moving down and through its zero line today

and like the CO NYSE MCO

it did so after its bounce off this line last week

short term this is a warning shot the sellers are beginning to make some headway in taking back control of the action

but with the large caps continuing to flex their muscles

any further price decay is likely to come only with quite of bit of effort in doing so

especially with the breadth MCSUM for the SPX, OEX and Dow above their +500 levels

down and through the MCO zero line as well for the SML

with the pattern here, and even the pattern in the SML breadth MCSUM, echoing that of the NYSE CO data

this lack of being able to crack above the mid September intraday highs in both the MID and SML also continues to be worrisome short term

lots of indecision again

getting that funny spidey sense again

and the TM breadth MCO also moved down and through its zero line today

while the TM breadth MCSUM remains far below the +250 level with a +121 reading

the components, though, continue to suggest corrective activity

so it will probably be up to what we see on the volume side in a moment

so...

we didn't quite what the buyers wanted to see yesterday and today

but, so far, it looks corrective

at the same time

the broader market is still finding it hard to keep up with the large caps

and with our being in week 4 from the bottom created in September

the buyers are starting to run out of time to keep things from failing in following through to our upside price targets

moving to the volume McClellan's

and the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's are in lock step in their pattern structures with their breadth cousins

including breaking below their zero lines today

and breaking their rising bottoms lines of the last month

time for the bulls to belly up to the bar if they're going to keep things moving forward

ahhhh...

moving to the NASDAQ volume MCO, however, and we see that volume did not move in sync with breadth below the zero line today

and that's a near term positive

this would then suggest that another rally attempt is likely as soon as Wednesday

and a challenge of the late June highs in the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is likely

current reading is a +225

so a hardy change in direction in the MCO will likely push us to the +250 level on the MCSUM

and then we'll have to see if there's any immediate follow through as we go into end of month allocations

by the looks of the NDX volume MCO though

that may be a foregone conclusion

as the NDX volume MCSUM moved up and through the +750 level today

so any kind follow through on Wednesday would then extend this oscillator to its next natural target of around the +1000 level

and that should take about a week to get there

next week we have the beginning of the month jobs data

did Congress push Veterans Day back to the 11th and no longer a Monday holiday?

don't see a Monday holiday on that

one sec

nope...it's the 11th only

which is a Wednesday

in any event

if the market is working off the news of a FED statement tomorrow

this could extend things to the upside into next week all dependent if we can push the MCO's back above last week's high points

and with the NASDAQ showing little in the way of selling conviction right now

it wouldn't be at all surprising to see the NDX at new recovery highs by Friday

and maybe a full challenge of the all time highs in the NASDAQ as well

now...with that said

when we look at the SPX volume MCO

it did finish the day with a +1 reading

though the components remain in a positive configuration

and due for a technical bounce

 on the negative side though

we do have the SPX volume MCSUM right at the +500 level now

so it's going to take a all out push by the buyers to keep this thing rolling along to the upside

the OEX volume MCO is showing a bit more downside volume currently

and that could be more towards the heavier weighted issues

going by today's Transports debacle

one would think that most of this internal decay came from that sector

on the bullish side though

the OEX volume MCSUM is leading its breadth cousin to the upside

as is the Dow volume MCSUM

and that would be good enough to keep things from falling apart over the next week or so

ugh...

too much down side volume going on with the MID volume MCO

as it leads breadth lower

that's not a good thing

especially when prices are having their issues in moving back above their reversal highs of mid September

for now though

it's not a "go out and sell with both hands" signal

where the more likely event would be a snapback to or towards the MID volume MCO zero line

before we see a better opportunity to see prices break to the downside

the SML volume MCO isn't as much in such a precarious position as the MID is

but like the MID volume MCSUM

the SML volume MCSUM is also in around its zero line as well

and the TM volume MCO is continuing to hold at its zero line

as we should see a near term bounce as the 10% component bounces off the 5% Trend

so...

we have a bit of a mess right now

as growth area of the market is seeing little in the way of support

while the value area continues to do the majority of the "work in progress"

for the bulls

they're hoping that whatever is said on Wednesday is music to their ears and allow them to get off their indecision and make a broader commitment

while the bears continue to chip away at the majority of issues

and leaving only the higher valued issues as the only corral in which the bulls can play

lets see how the OBV's are doing

not a lot of good news for the bulls here

as the CVI's remain neutral to positive

but the STVO's and VTO's are at or nearly "overbought"

seems like we're having a tougher time in "correcting on the fly" then we did a week ago

NYSE TRIN at 1.00

Open 10 at 1.06

so not nearly as "oversold" as last week

and that was one of the reasons why prices have had their hard time in seeing any kind of price decay

NASDAQ TRIN at .81

Open 10 at .81

we'll call that "overbought"

TM TRIN at .86

Open 10 at .90

neutral

like it's waiting for the other shoe to drop

so...

let's go with the path of least resistance

and look for an up close on Wednesday

the important thing for the next couple of days remains with volume plurality

for if we continue to see things sag price wise

but the trend of volume remains buoyant

then we should see higher equity prices over the next week or so

any further breakdown though

would suggest that we're going to move net sideways during this same time period

let me check the BETS

-35

not a good omen, but things could turn around quickly on any reflex rally on Wednesday

so based on this

better to hold any new buying for a day or two

and for those still on the shelf watching things

continue to sit on your hands for now

no follow though here from last Thursday and Friday's breakout is a bit curious at this stage

but the bigger problem continues to lie with the MID and SML

as it didn't see any kind of follow up on Friday after Thursday's upside breakout in the large caps

so we'll see how it goes tomorrow

anything else?

let me do a little more looking around

SAR sell on the XLE

looks more like a head and shoulders top, but still, so far you called this one Mike!

we did reach the downside target $66 level though

so if this was a correction

we should reverse hard to the upside pretty quick

rite01: could you post the NYSE commons adv/dec line where it's still holding on to it's declining trend.. I do not see it??

wow...Transports down 2.64% today

check the Sunday's Weekly Breadth Data charts

rite01: oh that's right.... thanks for the reminder

second chart on the array

np

my "feeling" here is that if the bulls can grab hold and reverse to the upside

then we should have enough momentum to move into next week

which was our objective for October was anyway

so a bit a clarity...and we'll go from there

rite01: could be tomorrow

but with the interest rate sensitive A/D lines moving higher

and the rest of the global Central Banks cutting rates

it would be suicide for the FED to cut rates here...it would throw things into a near term tizzy

don't see it though

but the news has been harping on whether we'll see a rate increase for a week now

and that could set up a nice compression point to be released once a sigh of relief is known

we'll see

OK...if there's nothing else

I'm going to take off

everyone have a great couple of days

and we'll see how things look on Thursday

good night


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