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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-10-26 15:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-26 15:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone today?
2010-10-26 16:01:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: fine and you?
2010-10-26 16:01:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thanks!
2010-10-26 16:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine and dandy
2010-10-26 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-10-26 16:01:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: I thought you said the markets were going to be choppy?
2010-10-26 16:02:06 [Message] darris -> Chat: yes, in this market how much should one be invested, and what type of general stop should one use? thanks
2010-10-26 16:02:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: First a shooting star, then a hammer
2010-10-26 16:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're not?
2010-10-26 16:02:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew - tough answer Darris
2010-10-26 16:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're getting close to a Dow Theory Buy now
2010-10-26 16:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 28 more points for the Transports
2010-10-26 16:03:21 [Message] darris -> Chat: Just generally speaking. but it is important to know if one should have something invested
2010-10-26 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 36 for the Industrials
2010-10-26 16:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the MCSUM was climbing, you should had been invested
2010-10-26 16:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're "overbought"
2010-10-26 16:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could get even more so as the bulls remain in control
2010-10-26 16:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all upside MCO price objectives have been met
2010-10-26 16:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're really waiting for is for some fresh cash
2010-10-26 16:05:07 [Message] darris -> Chat: Those things indicate it is time to cash out of longs, and go to cash, but not short
2010-10-26 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to give new objectives
2010-10-26 16:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...that's one way of looking at things
2010-10-26 16:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's been a ton of rotation of late with the money that is already in the market
2010-10-26 16:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the internals are currently indecisive
2010-10-26 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as that lasts...so will our choppiness
2010-10-26 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't decline
2010-10-26 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't advance
2010-10-26 16:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest that we should be giving back a bit
2010-10-26 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2010-10-26 16:07:13 [Message] darris -> Chat: two out of three days have had very little action after the open salvo's
2010-10-26 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're so awashed with liquidity that any give back is absorbed quite quickly
2010-10-26 16:07:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, most of it has been at the open
2010-10-26 16:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as we thought it would be last week
2010-10-26 16:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you get a "sense of urgency", it usually washes over and goes away very quickly
2010-10-26 16:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at this morning
2010-10-26 16:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow down 70, and then just as quickly, we're unchanged
2010-10-26 16:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy did I take some guff from TT over the weekend...did you see it?
2010-10-26 16:09:29 [Message] darris -> Chat: I saw a bit with Semibizz, but nothing else. What are they thinking over there?
2010-10-26 16:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't
2010-10-26 16:09:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: lol
2010-10-26 16:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the problem
2010-10-26 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all about platitudes
2010-10-26 16:10:15 [Message] darris -> Chat: It is a far cry from what was several years ago. I hardly ever find a good technical insight there anymore
2010-10-26 16:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's rare
2010-10-26 16:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I tried to ruffle some feathers - didn't seem to work
2010-10-26 16:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh well
2010-10-26 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW folks
2010-10-26 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're on Face Book, I would sure appreciate a "like" from you guys for TW when you get a chance so that I can have my a TW Facebook url - http://www.facebook.com/pages/Technical-Watch/119405764762383?v=wall
2010-10-26 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I need 25 "likes" to secure the url
2010-10-26 16:12:25 [Message] darris -> Chat: NP, will get that done tonight
2010-10-26 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks very much
2010-10-26 16:12:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: Ive never dabbled in Facebook
2010-10-26 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep it that way! lol
2010-10-26 16:13:03 [Message] darris -> Chat: Do not bother with FB
2010-10-26 16:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: It's OK..as long as you keep things secure
2010-10-26 16:13:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: its just another endless pit
2010-10-26 16:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm only really on there for my businesses
2010-10-26 16:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't ignore over 500,000,000 users
2010-10-26 16:13:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: you got emails, tweeting, twittering or whatever they call it these days
2010-10-26 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I won't TWEET
2010-10-26 16:13:44 [Message] darris -> Chat: The latest scamming has been the tweeters on the penny stocks. They have invaded that as well
2010-10-26 16:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think Tweeting is too intrusive but Facebook is OK
2010-10-26 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on my private FB page I post a "Song of the Day" - primarily for my nieces and nephews to introduce them to "real music" lol
2010-10-26 16:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK....let me get DP up...
2010-10-26 16:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO remains just above its zero line
2010-10-26 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has now given the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM to reach the +750 level
2010-10-26 16:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently with a reading of +753
2010-10-26 16:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of the CO MCO being in a very tight sequence of late in around the zero line
2010-10-26 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the individual postings of the MCSUM have been congested
2010-10-26 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this suggests that even though the bulls remain in control they remain a tired bunch of animals
2010-10-26 16:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO components and they remain on a cross over buy signal above their zero line
2010-10-26 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...you can't short
2010-10-26 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can only chop around with the market
2010-10-26 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we get some conviction in one direction or the other
2010-10-26 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...it's just the way things are
2010-10-26 16:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the Hurst low is concerned...
2010-10-26 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't it be unusual for us to continue chopping around like this if the low had nested?
2010-10-26 16:19:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-10-26 16:19:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: sort of
2010-10-26 16:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I have no real opinion there
2010-10-26 16:19:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: except that there really was no drop
2010-10-26 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to understand that liquidity levels this high are probably going to play havoc with our expectations
2010-10-26 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a low that we might move up and out of?
2010-10-26 16:19:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-10-26 16:19:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: John thinks the 10wk low has definitely pasted and so do I based on shorter cycles
2010-10-26 16:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your 20 is his 10?
2010-10-26 16:20:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: He's not sure where to place the 80wk yet
2010-10-26 16:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not surprised
2010-10-26 16:20:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: July vs August lows
2010-10-26 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was due in August?
2010-10-26 16:21:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: Again shorter cycles phase to July and August stayed above, so consistent with August as the 10 and this as the 20
2010-10-26 16:21:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: Phasing the length of the 80wk cycles, yes
2010-10-26 16:21:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: The 80was Due in August
2010-10-26 16:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you had bull divergence in July
2010-10-26 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would call that the low
2010-10-26 16:22:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: That's what I am doing
2010-10-26 16:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would make the most amount of sense on a technical basis
2010-10-26 16:22:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: Now 20wk cycles range 16-18wks lately and this is wk 17
2010-10-26 16:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what also could have happened
2010-10-26 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this does happen from time to time
2010-10-26 16:22:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: The 5wk and 2.5wk cycles pointed to the 20wk coming in last wk but consolidation only as we saw
2010-10-26 16:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the low actually splits between July and August because of something putting its thumb on the scale
2010-10-26 16:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here
2010-10-26 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe
2010-10-26 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the divergence in July told us that the horizontal trading range would hold that goes back to February
2010-10-26 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the out of character damage of May...the cycle could had split
2010-10-26 16:25:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: truthfully cyclical action works best when there is no major fundamental events to override it. Seems to me that we are in a pseudo trend right now with currency manipulations by governments that could be overshadowing the natural cyclical action that normal underlies all of this.
2010-10-26 16:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fully agree on the first sentence
2010-10-26 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think this is currency related though in total
2010-10-26 16:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a nice excuse
2010-10-26 16:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't believe its as important as many believe it is
2010-10-26 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: governments can only do so much in the currency markets
2010-10-26 16:26:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we learned that in the 80's when it was a daily occurrence
2010-10-26 16:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...look at the Dollar last week
2010-10-26 16:27:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well I still think that there are fundamental events overshadowing cyclical influences, maybe the upcoming election
2010-10-26 16:27:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "intervention" only moved the pattern up to its 20 day EMA
2010-10-26 16:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the election...agreed
2010-10-26 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll notice that the polls are tightening up
2010-10-26 16:27:39 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think the "intervention" has been the debasing of the currency
2010-10-26 16:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which usually happens about a week out
2010-10-26 16:27:53 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Fib, I find Volume MCO and MCSUM's disturbing, how important are they compared to the price MCO and MCSUMs?
2010-10-26 16:27:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: and the move up to the 20 EMA was them letting up
2010-10-26 16:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: monetary policy told us that the currency was going to soften...that is/was the intention
2010-10-26 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll review them in a bit Tracca
2010-10-26 16:28:27 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thanks
2010-10-26 16:28:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: that is the fundamental influence of which I speak
2010-10-26 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...it was only enough to retrace
2010-10-26 16:28:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the markets already know all of the fundamentals
2010-10-26 16:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would concentrate on the technicals and close my ears to everything else
2010-10-26 16:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do
2010-10-26 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone has a opinion
2010-10-26 16:29:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Agreed
2010-10-26 16:29:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can confuse more than help if you listen long enough
2010-10-26 16:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the problem with TT
2010-10-26 16:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they listen to every breath
2010-10-26 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it's said on the news, or a blog, or in the paper, it MUST be right
2010-10-26 16:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have talked about many times how the market will usually find a way to distract the majority from its objective
2010-10-26 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...it continues to climb a perfect wall of worry
2010-10-26 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one believes it
2010-10-26 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everyone is looking for a turn
2010-10-26 16:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile...
2010-10-26 16:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-10-26 16:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCO poked its head above the zero line on Monday and its now back below it today
2010-10-26 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no direction noted at this time...chop
2010-10-26 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2010-10-26 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we once again got a "small" cross over sell signal today
2010-10-26 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the close up chart of the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-10-26 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see that it now looks like we are slightly below last weeks low point
2010-10-26 16:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a break down in progress
2010-10-26 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if you look at the MCO, and apply a stochastic to the data, you will note that we are just above "oversold" levels right now
2010-10-26 16:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that we should see about a weeks worth of positive breadth in the markets
2010-10-26 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do break down here
2010-10-26 16:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will probably be over just as quickly
2010-10-26 16:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the components above their zero line right now
2010-10-26 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further price decay will be that of a correction
2010-10-26 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the start of a trend
2010-10-26 16:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for the bears...it's a matter on sitting on your hands right now
2010-10-26 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have control...but short term...they're looking over their collective shoulders for back up
2010-10-26 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ Composite Index is also testing its April highs
2010-10-26 16:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting how just about every major index now, except for the $UTIL and the $NDX, are all testing their April highs
2010-10-26 16:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning...the market is in a "heave ho" position to take out these same highs
2010-10-26 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a pull back first near term
2010-10-26 16:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but whatever we have in front of us
2010-10-26 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like the internals have been showing in the last couple of weeks
2010-10-26 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything will be in tandem - in sync
2010-10-26 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls..maybe much of this chop over the last two weeks was to allow the $COMPQ the time to catch up
2010-10-26 16:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both price was and MCSUM wise
2010-10-26 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the price action is now at the April highs
2010-10-26 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is 75 data points from +500
2010-10-26 16:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would venture to guess that within a week or so...clarity will be known
2010-10-26 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, the elections are a week from today
2010-10-26 16:39:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there are a lot of scared politicians out there right now
2010-10-26 16:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so scared...they've been caught "cheating" which I find amusing
2010-10-26 16:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...onward
2010-10-26 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change today on the NDX breadth MCO
2010-10-26 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is taking place after this MCO broke above last weeks highs
2010-10-26 16:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this small change provided a simple technical snapback to those same highs
2010-10-26 16:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if the NDX is still leading, we might have our answers as soon as tomorrow
2010-10-26 16:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this multi day event above the zero line on the MCO has now pushed the NDX breadth MCSUM to testing its late September highs
2010-10-26 16:42:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're able to break above this level
2010-10-26 16:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they bears will be toast
2010-10-26 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter how long we've been above the zero line
2010-10-26 16:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they just couldn't muster enough selling to break the trend
2010-10-26 16:43:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-10-26 16:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the breakout above the April highs would be quite dramatic - a multi day event
2010-10-26 16:43:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: How's your NAAD chart for the NASDAQ?
2010-10-26 16:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check...one moment
2010-10-26 16:44:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think the gap resistance is just about covered
2010-10-26 16:44:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: NDX already touched the April highs = price wise
2010-10-26 16:45:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: Good point
2010-10-26 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watcha think? - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/naad102610.png
2010-10-26 16:45:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs
2010-10-26 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day crossed the 200 day today
2010-10-26 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there's going to be a stall...it will happen NOW
2010-10-26 16:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to give it time for the 39 day to play catch up
2010-10-26 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't have to happen...but this would be a ideal point for it to
2010-10-26 16:46:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: You have the "brother" gap right above the one you've charted and that also corresponds to the magic +500 level
2010-10-26 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here
2010-10-26 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as Tracca started to point out earlier
2010-10-26 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is whether or not the NAUD is in sync here...let me look
2010-10-26 16:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirmed - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/naud102610.png
2010-10-26 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ is in gear to the upside
2010-10-26 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showing no indication of a tradable top as yet
2010-10-26 16:48:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: But note the NAUD has not even cleared the May reaction level yet
2010-10-26 16:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last hurdle
2010-10-26 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be a very nervous bear here
2010-10-26 16:48:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: those tiny url's are coming up tiny for me
2010-10-26 16:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: click on the chart
2010-10-26 16:49:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: here's another one: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/docschart102610.png
2010-10-26 16:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should have a magnifying glass when you put your cursor on them
2010-10-26 16:49:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ooooo...colors
2010-10-26 16:49:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think it shows clearly that the USD has been very tightly negatively correlated with many things lately
2010-10-26 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes sense to me
2010-10-26 16:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't matter how we rise
2010-10-26 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that there enough money for us TO rise
2010-10-26 16:50:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: USD down = spx up, transports up, oil up, materials up
2010-10-26 16:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more importantly
2010-10-26 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this shows how important it is to be invested right now in US denominated products
2010-10-26 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you live in the US, that is
2010-10-26 16:51:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for Canadians
2010-10-26 16:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSX is super bullish here
2010-10-26 16:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I mean SUPER bullish
2010-10-26 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't keep up with inflation unless you're invested in products that MUST provide currency parity
2010-10-26 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a lower dollar doesn't matter
2010-10-26 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless
2010-10-26 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're not in products that will move higher to offset this loss in intrinsic value
2010-10-26 16:52:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to keep up with inflation
2010-10-26 16:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all we need to do
2010-10-26 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worrying about how low the dollar will go doesn't help in growing capital
2010-10-26 16:54:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: I just showed this chart of offer evidence to my statement before that some of the correction-less advance in the equities since the Aug bottom has been due to the correction-less decline in the USD.
2010-10-26 16:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have a better chart - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/spxusd102610.png
2010-10-26 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all you need to know
2010-10-26 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of the rally has been based on the dollar's decline
2010-10-26 16:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-10-26 16:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're invested in the SPX
2010-10-26 16:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're already above the April highs highs
2010-10-26 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the difference between the cash and this chart is your inflation
2010-10-26 16:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on
2010-10-26 16:56:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: would have been easier if you had just agreed with my statement earlier then
2010-10-26 16:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-10-26 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2010-10-26 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think I did actually
2010-10-26 16:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wasn't what you wanted to hear lol
2010-10-26 16:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the SPX and OEX breadth MCSUM's are above their +750 level now
2010-10-26 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a reminder
2010-10-26 16:58:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM is above (or below) the +750 level
2010-10-26 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the average stock will tend to move in 3/4 to 1 point moves on days in which the market moves in the direction of the prevailing trend
2010-10-26 16:59:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again..that's the average stock
2010-10-26 16:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do get enough to break above the April highs
2010-10-26 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are going to run for a bit
2010-10-26 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we have enough to move above the April highs on the MCSUM's
2010-10-26 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then give us upside price objectives that will challenge the all time highs
2010-10-26 17:00:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: spx is just now about to engage its secondary Gap resistance
2010-10-26 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one in early May?
2010-10-26 17:00:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: oex is in the middle of it
2010-10-26 17:00:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-10-26 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...just moving into it now
2010-10-26 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the top 100 are leading the 500...
2010-10-26 17:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes sense at this stage with the internals as hot as they are
2010-10-26 17:01:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: maybe SPX weighed down by the banks?
2010-10-26 17:02:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: They don't tend to be in the top 100 anymore, lol
2010-10-26 17:02:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: OEX fairly heavily weighted in oils, as well
2010-10-26 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is now at a reading of +1093
2010-10-26 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still believe we're about to see the financials take off
2010-10-26 17:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to see today's data though
2010-10-26 17:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...
2010-10-26 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, one thing's for sure
2010-10-26 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see a crash like event for a while
2010-10-26 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when you read this kind of stuff...you'll know that this kind of talk is more emotional than technical
2010-10-26 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first it's this
2010-10-26 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it's that
2010-10-26 17:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currency wars
2010-10-26 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: G-20 meeting
2010-10-26 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Chinese
2010-10-26 17:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all distractions
2010-10-26 17:04:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all poo poo
2010-10-26 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they said the same thing in 1985 and 1986
2010-10-26 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they also said the same thing 10 years later
2010-10-26 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that matters is the direction of money - period
2010-10-26 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM is now above its +750 level
2010-10-26 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM is now 127 data points from its next objective of +750
2010-10-26 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCO is right at the zero line with a +2 reading
2010-10-26 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you look closely at the TM breadth MCSUM
2010-10-26 17:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see that we've closed half way within the downside gap we talked about last week as being important to overcome
2010-10-26 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears MUST hold this gap or this market will get away from them in a big way
2010-10-26 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLY breadth MCO
2010-10-26 17:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the way the XLY breadth MCSUM is moving higher now
2010-10-26 17:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLY price pattern is testing its April highs
2010-10-26 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...it looks like we're going to move above the April highs first before we see any kind of multi day decline
2010-10-26 17:09:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strong range bar on the XLY as well today
2010-10-26 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP continues to hold steady
2010-10-26 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a nice structural example on the XLP chart
2010-10-26 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can literally see the "diving platform" we talk about from time to time
2010-10-26 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see that little retracement in August?
2010-10-26 17:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of looks like a diving board when you're jumping on it?
2010-10-26 17:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the release of the price pattern after the spring
2010-10-26 17:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: text book stuff
2010-10-26 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control of the XLE
2010-10-26 17:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why not?
2010-10-26 17:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lower dollar...higher profits
2010-10-26 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF remains positive...but what a mess!
2010-10-26 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottoms above bottoms on the XLF breadth MCO
2010-10-26 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the XLF breadth MCSUM and you can see now that we are above the +250 level
2010-10-26 17:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as bad as many think the financials are
2010-10-26 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money, though a bit hesitant, really doesn't think so...or is looking ahead
2010-10-26 17:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF components also remain in a bullish crossover configuration
2010-10-26 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one shouldn't fixate on one or two stocks that make up this index right now
2010-10-26 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, I refer to BAC
2010-10-26 17:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like it's trying to bottom here
2010-10-26 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this talk about it going to single digits
2010-10-26 17:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does anyone really think that the FED will allow that?
2010-10-26 17:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really?
2010-10-26 17:16:22 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: It was allowed once...
2010-10-26 17:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that could turn the QE2 into the Titanic
2010-10-26 17:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was in 2008
2010-10-26 17:16:46 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Sure
2010-10-26 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before procedures and additional powers were put in place
2010-10-26 17:17:01 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: and 2009
2010-10-26 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is also an issue where the FED just unloaded a ton of stock back into the float in the last couple of weeks
2010-10-26 17:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless...try not to be swayed by a distraction
2010-10-26 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the "whole pie" and not just a piece
2010-10-26 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at GS
2010-10-26 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you really think that the financials are going to collapse if GS isn't leading the way with all of their fingers in so many pies?
2010-10-26 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't sound reasonable to me
2010-10-26 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2010-10-26 17:19:14 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: No, but BAC may fall further, I think
2010-10-26 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF just keeps hanging around just out of earshot of the critical 15 level
2010-10-26 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the underlying internals continue to gain strength
2010-10-26 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think so
2010-10-26 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe yesterday's test is all you're likely to see
2010-10-26 17:19:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I could be wrong
2010-10-26 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...I've been wrong before
2010-10-26 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the daily volume price configuration suggests a bottom...or close to one
2010-10-26 17:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2010-10-26 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if I were short...I would keep a tight leash on that puppy
2010-10-26 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you could get a statement like C got yesterday
2010-10-26 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whoosh...up 5%
2010-10-26 17:21:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: So if someone is currently flat having taken profits too early on any longs and is looking to go long, what would you advise right here, right now? Waiting for the usual pullback has backfired as the market has kept going up. After reviewing the technicals, what would you recommend as a method to invest intermediate term into this market. What would be a good line in the sand BUY SIGNAL so that you can take advantage of the bullish internals you've been describing for weeks now.
2010-10-26 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first things first
2010-10-26 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one ever cried taking profits
2010-10-26 17:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking profits over the last couple of weeks was a good play based on the sluggishness of the advance over this same period
2010-10-26 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as moving forward
2010-10-26 17:22:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: true but the internals suggest more upside as the percentage play, no?
2010-10-26 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a market in which if we're able to see strong breadth numbers
2010-10-26 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these numbers are able to push us above the April highs
2010-10-26 17:22:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold your nose...and follow it
2010-10-26 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-10-26 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a fascinating time
2010-10-26 17:23:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: So would you be invested long in ndx now?
2010-10-26 17:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have been very patient in waiting for what is usual and customary
2010-10-26 17:23:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: in your cores?
2010-10-26 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time, we haven't needed to short
2010-10-26 17:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get the rest of the market to break above the April highs....absolutely
2010-10-26 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-10-26 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would go with the RUT as it has been hanging in there the best over the last 2 weeks
2010-10-26 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the all clear is given
2010-10-26 17:24:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: But right now you would hold off until the rest of the market clears the April highs?
2010-10-26 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's going to be a huge push into the small caps from the bond market
2010-10-26 17:24:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: as a safer way to go
2010-10-26 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see no reason to lead off here
2010-10-26 17:25:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals, however, continue to suggest that any or all surprises will be to the upside
2010-10-26 17:25:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: fair enough, thanks fib.
2010-10-26 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just follow its lead
2010-10-26 17:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: believe me
2010-10-26 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would LOVE a pull back here
2010-10-26 17:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we've been "loving" that for over a month now
2010-10-26 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many more times should be hit over the head before we come to our senses?
2010-10-26 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-10-26 17:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a technical pullback is only an expectation
2010-10-26 17:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market wants to do something else...fine by me
2010-10-26 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't care
2010-10-26 17:26:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes and a cyclical one too
2010-10-26 17:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something has been bubbling under the surface now for 4 weeks
2010-10-26 17:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and its been rising
2010-10-26 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a volcano
2010-10-26 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me...I just keep playing long
2010-10-26 17:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no interest in shorting
2010-10-26 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I looked at the open this morning and said...we'll be even within an hour
2010-10-26 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I was wrong...
2010-10-26 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was 30 minutes
2010-10-26 17:28:23 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-26 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to trade with what we got to work with it
2010-10-26 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this also a good lesson in divergences
2010-10-26 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: divergences are only visual products until you get confirmation
2010-10-26 17:29:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people jump too soon when they see losses in momentum
2010-10-26 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only one piece of the puzzle
2010-10-26 17:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you need other barometers to agree...it must all work together
2010-10-26 17:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing random here
2010-10-26 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all physics
2010-10-26 17:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM has now taken out its 52 week highs
2010-10-26 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving us new upside objectives
2010-10-26 17:31:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: I've got another question on technicals. XLV is up next. We've talked about how declines are generally muted at high MCSUMs. Late Dec 2009 it hit +1000 and this was true and we got a high level consolidation and moved higher. Mid Jan the McSum again hit +1000 and there was a rapid 8-10% correction. Mid March, it again hit +1000 and price peaked the very same day and by the time it was all over, you had a 20% correction
2010-10-26 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't have a chart...but the 34 price level would be the minimum there
2010-10-26 17:31:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: What was the difference between those +1000 hits that they behaved so differently?
2010-10-26 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I had to venture a guess
2010-10-26 17:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the position of the A/D line would come to mind first
2010-10-26 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2010-10-26 17:32:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: Important as we are at the +1000 level again. Is the THE top like the last two times or do we move higher like in late Dec 2009?
2010-10-26 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like the position of the XLV line might be your answer Doc
2010-10-26 17:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the April highs...everyone got sucked in
2010-10-26 17:35:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing about the MCSUM
2010-10-26 17:35:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: I see nothing in the AD line that would differentiate the four instances in question
2010-10-26 17:35:18 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Hmm it tumbles from all time AD line highs both times
2010-10-26 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: regardless...I would have to study it
2010-10-26 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCSUM only measures the difference of how far apart two EMA's are from each other
2010-10-26 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when you get up the +750 or +1000
2010-10-26 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is highly extended to a point in which the more extreme you are, the quicker you're likely to ease off
2010-10-26 17:37:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: Please do and get back to us. How do you tell the difference between the 3 previous instances of +1000 peaks in the Mcsum, one which was not a sell and two which marked the exact peak in price with no further fuel left after the rockets shut off.
2010-10-26 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like stretching a rubber band too taught and releasing that energy
2010-10-26 17:37:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: We never got the momentum follow through after the McSum peaked that you have mentioned in the past.
2010-10-26 17:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...remember that the NYSE breadth MCSUM was already declining before we fell off the cliff in May so money was leaving the market in general
2010-10-26 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could had been
2010-10-26 17:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that many decided to stick with the defensive issues
2010-10-26 17:38:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then withdrew with a push of a button (the flash crash)
2010-10-26 17:38:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: Okay, the broad market fell, but on the individual issue, there was not clue that the +1000 was actually THE TOP
2010-10-26 17:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes...I may not have a answer
2010-10-26 17:38:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: fair enough
2010-10-26 17:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2010-10-26 17:38:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: just trying to learn
2010-10-26 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was overly extended
2010-10-26 17:39:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know...
2010-10-26 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I haven't studied it
2010-10-26 17:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will look at it tomorrow
2010-10-26 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be the first thing we talk about on Thursday...deal?
2010-10-26 17:39:39 [Message] doc -> Chat: as we study the internals, best to learn that there are exception and better yet if you can understand why the exception
2010-10-26 17:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not necessarily
2010-10-26 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes....there isn't a good answer
2010-10-26 17:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're dealing with humans after all
2010-10-26 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're fickle
2010-10-26 17:40:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: true, that's why better yet.
2010-10-26 17:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are not machines
2010-10-26 17:40:27 [Message] doc -> Chat: anyway, deal
2010-10-26 17:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why something happened one time
2010-10-26 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and didn't the next is our disclaimer
2010-10-26 17:40:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we deal with probability and outcome
2010-10-26 17:41:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like at the crap tables
2010-10-26 17:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have all of tools lined up perfectly and still be wrong
2010-10-26 17:41:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: one thing you could point to is that the volume line didn't confirm at the April highs
2010-10-26 17:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could
2010-10-26 17:41:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: I mention this as it is not confirming again
2010-10-26 17:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm trying to get to the volume McClellan's...
2010-10-26 17:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2010-10-26 17:41:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay
2010-10-26 17:42:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: just trying to be a better technician
2010-10-26 17:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Doc...I Know, we all are
2010-10-26 17:42:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's only so much time I can do in a limited amount of time we have
2010-10-26 17:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it fly's!
2010-10-26 17:42:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: right, I know
2010-10-26 17:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try my best
2010-10-26 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but my fingers can only go so fast!
2010-10-26 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...XLI
2010-10-26 17:43:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: Think on it, get back if you think of anything
2010-10-26 17:43:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: Think, sorry
2010-10-26 17:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll notice that we were turned away at the April highs yesterday
2010-10-26 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is because of our having continuing problems moving to new highs on the XLI breadth MCSUM
2010-10-26 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but overall...things look much better here with this sector than it did a week ago
2010-10-26 17:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this sector will actually be the key to both the INDU and TRAN moving above their April highs
2010-10-26 17:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the XLI does...so will the majors
2010-10-26 17:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are attached at the hip
2010-10-26 17:46:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB data continues to move sideways
2010-10-26 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLB price action is now above its April highs
2010-10-26 17:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for the price action to move higher...we will need to see breadth of market expand here
2010-10-26 17:47:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK remains a screaming buy here
2010-10-26 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we can get the XLK breadth MCO above yesterdays highs
2010-10-26 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should be enough to push the XLK breadth MCSUM to new 52 week highs
2010-10-26 17:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and give new upside price objective of (probably) the 2007 highs
2010-10-26 17:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...all we need is a spark here
2010-10-26 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a little spark
2010-10-26 17:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this thing is going to ignite
2010-10-26 17:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU MCO is showing corrective behavior here
2010-10-26 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the components still remain above their zero line
2010-10-26 17:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO remains below its zero line with a reading of -4
2010-10-26 17:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the reason why its been difficult for prices to move higher and hold those highs
2010-10-26 17:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need better volume plurality
2010-10-26 17:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no conviction
2010-10-26 17:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but on the flip side
2010-10-26 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no conviction by the sellers either
2010-10-26 17:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we just drift higher
2010-10-26 17:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE MCO and MCSUM remain neutral so nothing new to work with there
2010-10-26 17:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ volume MCO
2010-10-26 17:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's nothing wrong with money flow there
2010-10-26 17:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just keeps coming in
2010-10-26 17:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't short that
2010-10-26 17:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my my
2010-10-26 17:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the secondaries shine
2010-10-26 17:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so going back to a previous question
2010-10-26 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't be phased to enter a long on the QQQQ with a stop just below today's lows
2010-10-26 17:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the risk is minimal
2010-10-26 17:54:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much money continuing to move in here
2010-10-26 17:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX volume MCO and MCSUM are also neutral
2010-10-26 17:55:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the OEX volume MCO
2010-10-26 17:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX volume MCSUM continues to ride its +500 level
2010-10-26 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like its surfing the line
2010-10-26 17:56:29 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: There seems to be a divergence between price and volume MCO on NDX today. Is that important ST?
2010-10-26 17:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO continues to retrace to or towards its zero line after moving to "oversold" levels
2010-10-26 17:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it "could be" important
2010-10-26 17:57:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until this divergence is triggered
2010-10-26 17:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just nice to look at
2010-10-26 17:57:33 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-10-26 17:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're always going to get divergences
2010-10-26 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just the way things are
2010-10-26 17:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trick is knowing which ones mean the most
2010-10-26 17:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the same chart
2010-10-26 17:58:15 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I have noticed that when they show up on NYSE MCO they typically lead to weakness the day after
2010-10-26 17:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could say the same thing about mid September and mid October
2010-10-26 17:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be coincidental
2010-10-26 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2010-10-26 17:58:58 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Is volume MCO divergence less significant than normal MCO divergence?
2010-10-26 17:59:02 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: In general?
2010-10-26 17:59:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO only measures the speed that a short term and intermediate term EMA's are either moving away or towards each other
2010-10-26 17:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's as significant as the flow of money will allow it
2010-10-26 17:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want to see the volume MCO move with or sightly ahead of the breadth MCO
2010-10-26 18:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...they're pretty much even
2010-10-26 18:00:37 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-10-26 18:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would now need to see the NDX volume MCO move below the last August lows for a divergence trigger
2010-10-26 18:00:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: There is a huge difference for the DOW
2010-10-26 18:01:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: between the breadth and volume MCO
2010-10-26 18:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...and this allowed the Dow volume MCSUM to move back to even
2010-10-26 18:01:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in can now rally, or decline, with more power
2010-10-26 18:01:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: The past 4 wks the Dow is up with the Vol mco negative the whole time except for a couple of days
2010-10-26 18:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID and SML data are also pretty much neutral here
2010-10-26 18:02:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: You should take a peek at the AD line vs the UD line for the DOW
2010-10-26 18:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's fine
2010-10-26 18:02:08 [Message] darris -> Chat: That is because BAC is in the Dow
2010-10-26 18:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only 30 stocks
2010-10-26 18:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-10-26 18:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good point
2010-10-26 18:02:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: Right. The UD line is back to just above the AUG LOWS!
2010-10-26 18:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't worry too much about the Dow
2010-10-26 18:03:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX is the better gauge
2010-10-26 18:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-10-26 18:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA is the best
2010-10-26 18:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the NYA was weak...THEN I would be worried
2010-10-26 18:03:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: SPX's UD line is barely above the June and August highs
2010-10-26 18:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM continues to rise
2010-10-26 18:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not neutral
2010-10-26 18:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not declining
2010-10-26 18:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so money is moving in
2010-10-26 18:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although not a lot to show price wise
2010-10-26 18:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: except
2010-10-26 18:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to inch up everyday
2010-10-26 18:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (with some hic ups put in to keep everyone guessing)
2010-10-26 18:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral to OK
2010-10-26 18:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are minimally "overbought"
2010-10-26 18:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are just treading water...in positive territory
2010-10-26 18:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the volume oscillators are looking fine
2010-10-26 18:06:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: Would be nice to get the VTOs to zero.
2010-10-26 18:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no sign of any real selling at all...waiting...
2010-10-26 18:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would love it to get these oscillators "oversold"
2010-10-26 18:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's no sellers
2010-10-26 18:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're frozen
2010-10-26 18:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too many one day events
2010-10-26 18:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're losing their shirts
2010-10-26 18:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take more and more away
2010-10-26 18:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market will naturally rise
2010-10-26 18:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more demand
2010-10-26 18:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lesser the supply
2010-10-26 18:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .91
2010-10-26 18:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2010-10-26 18:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STILL "oversold"
2010-10-26 18:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't short that
2010-10-26 18:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .75
2010-10-26 18:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89
2010-10-26 18:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2010-10-26 18:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I got to tell you
2010-10-26 18:09:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being neutral, with the amount of money coming in, and the NDX at new recovery highs, that's pretty bullish
2010-10-26 18:09:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .78
2010-10-26 18:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .94
2010-10-26 18:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing frothy there
2010-10-26 18:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-10-26 18:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nod continues to go with the bulls
2010-10-26 18:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's theirs to lose
2010-10-26 18:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it doesn't seem reasonable that they will
2010-10-26 18:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least for a week
2010-10-26 18:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe rally into Tuesday...and sell the news?
2010-10-26 18:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what if it's a electoral mandate?
2010-10-26 18:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...let breadth of market be your guide
2010-10-26 18:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get a good 100 point rally in the Dow
2010-10-26 18:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and breadth of market is 4:1 to the good after 14:00
2010-10-26 18:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: move in
2010-10-26 18:11:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-26 18:12:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: nope, thanks Fib
2010-10-26 18:12:15 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: Nope, and thanks for a great walk through!
2010-10-26 18:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a good couple of days
2010-10-26 18:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll get together on Thursday
2010-10-26 18:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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