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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-10-25 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-10-25 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-10-25 16:00:21 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, and you?
2012-10-25 16:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sad...I missed all of Tuesday's excitement!
2012-10-25 16:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...I'm doing fine, thanks for asking
2012-10-25 16:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as for Tuesday...last Friday pretty much put a fork in it for the tradable top idea
2012-10-25 16:01:57 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Hi Dave....Hope you had a good week
2012-10-25 16:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far..so good
2012-10-25 16:02:16 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat:
2012-10-25 16:02:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-10-25 16:03:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: AAPL earnings were interesting...
2012-10-25 16:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as expected
2012-10-25 16:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why the stock has sold off 100 points
2012-10-25 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the mini looks good
2012-10-25 16:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much what I'm looking for...wifi and 4g included
2012-10-25 16:05:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: market maker is going to kill it with those options, LOL
2012-10-25 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ha!
2012-10-25 16:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...haven't looked around since the weekend, so I'm interested in getting started
2012-10-25 16:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's do so
2012-10-25 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2012-10-25 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who use Stock Charts
2012-10-25 16:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just upgraded to their Pro service
2012-10-25 16:06:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very nice...
2012-10-25 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus you get 5 second refresh
2012-10-25 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you get data all the way back several decades
2012-10-25 16:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the Dow
2012-10-25 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the 1880's
2012-10-25 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can also make up your own index that it will update for you
2012-10-25 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm thinking of going back to making a market index which I did back in the 90's
2012-10-25 16:07:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool
2012-10-25 16:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2012-10-25 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not on the cheap side
2012-10-25 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you do get lots of bells and whistles
2012-10-25 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's look at DP
2012-10-25 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking lower last Friday
2012-10-25 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now bounced off of minimally "oversold" levels
2012-10-25 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what should be another attempt to snapback to or towards the zero line
2012-10-25 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see on the close up chart
2012-10-25 16:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have another one of those blip resistance areas traced out earlier in the week
2012-10-25 16:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we'll need to see this MCO move above in order to support today's bounce
2012-10-25 16:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now..
2012-10-25 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term problem is that
2012-10-25 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now getting mighty close to the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM zero line now
2012-10-25 16:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a reading of +40
2012-10-25 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls will need to stand hard and firm here and push this MCO above this same blip resistance area
2012-10-25 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're likely to create a new flag in this MCO
2012-10-25 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the majority start to shift from bullish to bearish control
2012-10-25 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that is on the side of the bulls here is that we have now had both a ledge and a small fishhook pattern in this current MCSUM downtrend
2012-10-25 16:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not likely that we'll see another one of these two hesitation points in this downside sequence
2012-10-25 16:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also tells us that the next turn up in this MCSUM will tend to be one in which price could create an advancing price sequence
2012-10-25 16:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only problem though is from what price level this turnaround is likely to take place
2012-10-25 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be now at the zero line
2012-10-25 16:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or it could be somewhere below it
2012-10-25 16:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should have that answer by Monday
2012-10-25 16:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the criteria just outlined
2012-10-25 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the 10% component of the CO MCO moved to lower lows than the MCO providing internal divergence between the two
2012-10-25 16:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would suggest that a bottom is in fact being created at this time
2012-10-25 16:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as an aside
2012-10-25 16:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had another low reading in the ISEE data over the last couple of days
2012-10-25 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 81 on Tuesday and (I think) 76 yesterday
2012-10-25 16:16:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have too many put buyers here
2012-10-25 16:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should allow prices to at least drift higher from these current levels
2012-10-25 16:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the calendar
2012-10-25 16:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have both the end of month seasonality coming up next week
2012-10-25 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as
2012-10-25 16:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a whole pot full of economic data, including the jobs numbers next Friday
2012-10-25 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might have our lows for the time being
2012-10-25 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then, of course, a week from this coming Tuesday is election day
2012-10-25 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which I just sent my ballot in today
2012-10-25 16:18:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wouldn't be nice that you would stop getting political calls or commercials when you've done that?
2012-10-25 16:18:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can all wish
2012-10-25 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving the composite data
2012-10-25 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the broad market remains quite bouyant at this time
2012-10-25 16:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing a higher high in the NYSE breadth MCO
2012-10-25 16:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as
2012-10-25 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seeing that this MCO's components continue to tell us that this is correctional behavior right now
2012-10-25 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 10% Trend below its zero line, while the 5% remains above this same line of neutrality
2012-10-25 16:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unfortunately
2012-10-25 16:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or fortunately as the case might be
2012-10-25 16:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM has finally broken below its +500 level in recent days
2012-10-25 16:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2012-10-25 16:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will now be able to see multiple down days of more than 3 in a row
2012-10-25 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should also be aware that we have also broken below our horizontal channel as well
2012-10-25 16:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2012-10-25 16:22:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a tradable price top in place
2012-10-25 16:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that probably won't be approached for a month or so
2012-10-25 16:23:12 [Message] hossman -> Chat: The last two times the McSUM went below 500, a bearish MCO flag was created within a few days.  They don't appear to behaving in the same manner this time
2012-10-25 16:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no, not yet
2012-10-25 16:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2012-10-25 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO data is close to moving down and through its zero line
2012-10-25 16:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking between the two
2012-10-25 16:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the commons are weaker than the interest rate sensitives
2012-10-25 16:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the sensitives usually don't carry a lot of weight in an index
2012-10-25 16:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the commons do
2012-10-25 16:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-25 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2012-10-25 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have a bottom
2012-10-25 16:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2012-10-25 16:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the composite NYSE breadth MCO and price
2012-10-25 16:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we now have the potential of bull divergence in place
2012-10-25 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we move the chart into a one MA
2012-10-25 16:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that in actuality we're only testing the bottom level of the our trading range right now on the NYA
2012-10-25 16:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a couple of important days are coming here
2012-10-25 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as to our expectation of a trading range
2012-10-25 16:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not something like we're seeing going on in the NASDAQ
2012-10-25 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is a whole different kettle of fish by way of their respected MCSUM's
2012-10-25 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we do see that the NASDAQ breadth MCO is also showing signs now of divergence
2012-10-25 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about last week
2012-10-25 16:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break below the zero line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM was probably going to give us a quick trip to the -250 level
2012-10-25 16:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're only 94 data points away from that now
2012-10-25 16:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a successful test there
2012-10-25 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would go a long way of creating the structure that would be necessary of (first) a wash out (by way of testing the -250 level) and market being "oversold" (by way of testing the early August lows)
2012-10-25 16:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're also back below the 3000 price level currently
2012-10-25 16:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which does provide some psychological resistance (and support)
2012-10-25 16:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less a "line in the sand" for both buyers and sellers
2012-10-25 16:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all
2012-10-25 16:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2012-10-25 16:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this one week move has all the personality of a market trying to correct quickly by slamming prices lower to create selling which would then provide the sentiment necessary to create a tradable low
2012-10-25 16:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as opposed to bear markets
2012-10-25 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where prices tend to drift lower
2012-10-25 16:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lower
2012-10-25 16:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lower
2012-10-25 16:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then SLAM into a bottom
2012-10-25 16:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the rest of the charts look
2012-10-25 16:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, we definitely have bull divergence in place on the NDX breadth MCO
2012-10-25 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM is now approaching the -500 level
2012-10-25 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see some deceleration in the trend of money moving out of the market there
2012-10-25 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for this to be reflected
2012-10-25 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO will need to now move higher
2012-10-25 16:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it does break above last weeks highs
2012-10-25 16:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would trigger our bull divergence
2012-10-25 16:35:23 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: right at the 200ema
2012-10-25 16:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do seem now to be getting some good synchronicity
2012-10-25 16:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...right at or near the longer term 200 EMA
2012-10-25 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is about 25 points away
2012-10-25 16:36:18 [Message] Issac -> Chat: Dave....NYSE had a mid range close
2012-10-25 16:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's play with Fibonacci for a moment
2012-10-25 16:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .618 retracement on the NDX comes in at 2609.88 intraday
2012-10-25 16:37:49 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: we basically hit that after hours on NQ
2012-10-25 16:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2613 on a closing basis
2012-10-25 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for that Issac
2012-10-25 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what's the rule on range days?
2012-10-25 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (which we should had paid more attention to last Thursday)
2012-10-25 16:39:02 [Message] Issac -> Chat: it has a high chance of changing direction tomorrow
2012-10-25 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2012-10-25 16:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a short term trend indicator
2012-10-25 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and forecasts the next days CLOSE
2012-10-25 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the previous days settlement
2012-10-25 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-10-25 16:40:05 [Message] Issac -> Chat: yesterday we also had a small point change on most breadth indicators
2012-10-25 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Wednesday being down
2012-10-25 16:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday we should see a higher close
2012-10-25 16:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did
2012-10-25 16:40:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what was yesterday's bar on the NYA?
2012-10-25 16:41:01 [Message] Issac -> Chat: would be ironic if we rip after aapl and amzn earnings
2012-10-25 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..both came out
2012-10-25 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both stocks are getting slammed
2012-10-25 16:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last I looked about 3 hours ago
2012-10-25 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2012-10-25 16:41:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: AAPL flat
2012-10-25 16:41:39 [Message] Issac -> Chat: they both turned green
2012-10-25 16:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2012-10-25 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice recovery
2012-10-25 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AMZN down 2
2012-10-25 16:42:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: considering, you bet!
2012-10-25 16:42:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Apple flat
2012-10-25 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2012-10-25 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the NDX breadth MCO is diverging now
2012-10-25 16:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so anything that happens here will tend to be a knee jerk reaction by the weak hands
2012-10-25 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the strong ones scoop up the issues and stabilize the price
2012-10-25 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what it looks like for now
2012-10-25 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...
2012-10-25 16:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by the way
2012-10-25 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to yesterday's bar
2012-10-25 16:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was an inside range day
2012-10-25 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since Tuesday was lower
2012-10-25 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation was for a higher close today
2012-10-25 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (check)
2012-10-25 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talking NYA in case you were wondering
2012-10-25 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NDX
2012-10-25 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing in the favor of the NDX bulls
2012-10-25 16:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that today's MCO reading cleared above last week's false move to the upside
2012-10-25 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would suggest that we're going to indeed snapback towards the zero line now
2012-10-25 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can that much more
2012-10-25 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can start playing accumulation again
2012-10-25 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the majority worts and worries about crashes and things that go bump in the night
2012-10-25 16:47:27 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Hey Dave...
2012-10-25 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now looking at...yes sir
2012-10-25 16:48:01 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I am not much of an E Waver...but does that look like 5 waves down off the high on the NDX?
2012-10-25 16:48:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking
2012-10-25 16:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...it looks like it
2012-10-25 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but let's see if it compliments the NDX MCO
2012-10-25 16:48:41 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thx
2012-10-25 16:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2012-10-25 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is it 5 down
2012-10-25 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or an A-B-C correction?
2012-10-25 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how do we know the diffidence...anyone??
2012-10-25 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO will always peak out in the extreme either in wave 3 OR wave A
2012-10-25 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it will diverge with wave 5 or wave C
2012-10-25 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we look at the DP chart
2012-10-25 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that, so far, the low extreme in the NDX breadth MCO took place...
2012-10-25 16:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the mid October lows
2012-10-25 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we have had another move lower
2012-10-25 16:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the divergent low
2012-10-25 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2012-10-25 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 5
2012-10-25 16:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, yes, this looks to be an impulsive structure to the downside
2012-10-25 16:52:02 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks for that bit of info
2012-10-25 16:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...
2012-10-25 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-10-25 16:52:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have guidelines to follow in Elliott
2012-10-25 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one of these guidelines is that wave 4 can not overlap wave 1
2012-10-25 16:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we look a bit closer then
2012-10-25 16:53:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: this sure looks ABC to me...
2012-10-25 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do see overlap
2012-10-25 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-10-25 16:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would mean that what looks like wave 3
2012-10-25 16:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is really, in reality, wave "c" of "A"
2012-10-25 16:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this latest move lower would be wave C
2012-10-25 16:53:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott...got to love it!
2012-10-25 16:53:54 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: lol
2012-10-25 16:53:59 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat:
2012-10-25 16:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the pattern, itself, looks like an ending diagonal on the daily
2012-10-25 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let me get the hourly chart up for further confirmation
2012-10-25 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who have access to the hourly chart of the NDX
2012-10-25 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll see an ending diagonal structure
2012-10-25 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like one move slight move lower would complete it
2012-10-25 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you having trouble seeing it
2012-10-25 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: switch the view to a 1 MA closing time stamp
2012-10-25 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2012-10-25 16:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the daily divergence building on MCO
2012-10-25 16:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the likelihood of our finding at least some temporary support at the MCSUM -500 level
2012-10-25 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of a bottom in the next two trading days is more than 50%
2012-10-25 16:57:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...NDX only
2012-10-25 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what would really confirm it
2012-10-25 16:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would be to see sentiment posts from those who favor more downside action from here in the Q's
2012-10-25 16:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have a track record of being incorrect in their forecasts
2012-10-25 16:59:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the SPX
2012-10-25 16:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here we did move to a lower MCO level
2012-10-25 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also bounced off of our minimally "oversold" level of -56 today
2012-10-25 17:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will extend the time period it that this index will need in its search for a tradable low now
2012-10-25 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our being within range of our first downside target of around the 1400 level only 13 points away
2012-10-25 17:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here would be for another day of firmness
2012-10-25 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then one more move lower toward this same 1400 target where a divergent structure in the MCO will likely be created
2012-10-25 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the SPX breadth MCO is also challenging its early August lows now which should give some bounce support near term
2012-10-25 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then an all out test of this MCSUM's zero line should then be seen
2012-10-25 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...you think we have 3 peaks in place here?
2012-10-25 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if so
2012-10-25 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we will definitely need to find support at the 1400 level
2012-10-25 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can go for the domed house
2012-10-25 17:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would not be a bullish pattern event
2012-10-25 17:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 peaks and a domed house patterns happen so rarely
2012-10-25 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when they do
2012-10-25 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once they are triggered
2012-10-25 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can literally see a collapse in prices
2012-10-25 17:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in this area, it should be interesting to see if this is what we have in store for us or not over the next couple of months
2012-10-25 17:06:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it seems like the OEX MCO broke the lows, or close-what will the expectations be if the NYA does same?
2012-10-25 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's a picture of it for those who don't know - http://tinyurl.com/8eclec4
2012-10-25 17:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll look in a moment
2012-10-25 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see in the example, it takes a long while to complete the pattern of the 3 peaks...
2012-10-25 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we would be in position 8
2012-10-25 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...onward
2012-10-25 17:09:12 [Message] hkk -> Chat: dave, what do you think of this take on the pattern
2012-10-25 17:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it does look like the OEX breadth MCO has moved to its lowest level since the July period
2012-10-25 17:09:32 [Message] hkk -> Chat: http://tinyurl.com/9ou33np
2012-10-25 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but does it mean that the NYA will join in?
2012-10-25 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to say
2012-10-25 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2012-10-25 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are only dealing with 100 stocks between two markets
2012-10-25 17:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYA is made up of some 3400 issues
2012-10-25 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: true, not all of the trade everyday
2012-10-25 17:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those stocks in the OEX do carry a larger weight in the overall NYA index
2012-10-25 17:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's more of a cautionary note if anything else
2012-10-25 17:11:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-10-25 17:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have to keep in mind one important fact
2012-10-25 17:11:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM is at the +105 level
2012-10-25 17:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE composite breadth MCSUM is well above that at +419
2012-10-25 17:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the broader market isn't leading lower
2012-10-25 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the multi nationals are
2012-10-25 17:12:04 [Message] chris -> Chat: what would be the expectation IF the NYA made a lower low?
2012-10-25 17:12:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: very good point
2012-10-25 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price wise?
2012-10-25 17:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or the MCO
2012-10-25 17:12:36 [Message] chris -> Chat: MCO
2012-10-25 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCO moves to new lows here
2012-10-25 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would first cap all upside targets
2012-10-25 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that at the very least we're back in a trading range that will last about a month
2012-10-25 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (on top of the trading range forecast we already had about 2 weeks ago
2012-10-25 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we would reach the downside price target of 8000 very quickly
2012-10-25 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, if I were a betting man
2012-10-25 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we did break to lower lows on the MCO near term
2012-10-25 17:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would look for a full snapback to what was the declining tops line connecting the March and April highs as probable support for the decline
2012-10-25 17:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how the consolidation at 8000 (which is our first target) held this snapback line if you take ruler to monitor
2012-10-25 17:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so ultimately, we could see prices drift to around the 7800 level
2012-10-25 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but between you and me
2012-10-25 17:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely at this point in time that we would break to new lows
2012-10-25 17:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why?
2012-10-25 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the NYsE breadth MCSUM is still well above its zero line
2012-10-25 17:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and significant breaks like this nearly always take place in around the zero line
2012-10-25 17:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe in a couple of weeks
2012-10-25 17:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe with an election dispute?
2012-10-25 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hate to bring it up
2012-10-25 17:18:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: RUH ROH LOL
2012-10-25 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but these imbeciles are already salivating at the prospects of putting us through another 2000
2012-10-25 17:18:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh my
2012-10-25 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: listen to the rhetoric of late
2012-10-25 17:19:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever happens
2012-10-25 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's just hope that the winners have at least a 6 percentage point lead
2012-10-25 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...it's going to be a tough November and December for the markets
2012-10-25 17:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not for one side...for both sides
2012-10-25 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the market never likes it when there's no clarity
2012-10-25 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have the capital gains issue to consider
2012-10-25 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just got finished turning in my ballot today
2012-10-25 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was no less than 3 different propositions calling for increasing either sales or income taxes
2012-10-25 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then there were bond issues on top of it
2012-10-25 17:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if any one of these things pass
2012-10-25 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the economy remains lethargic
2012-10-25 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: California will be in real trouble
2012-10-25 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll take the 49 states with us
2012-10-25 17:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: HKK - as far as the link on the provided on the 3 peaks and domed house idea...possible - and interesting that Carl also had the same thought just today
2012-10-25 17:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts
2012-10-25 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing though near term for the OEX breadth MCSUM
2012-10-25 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if it does move down and through the zero line
2012-10-25 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can pretty much expect a large decline in prices to take place as the power shifts from one side to the other
2012-10-25 17:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing that is bothersome here
2012-10-25 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have mentioned before
2012-10-25 17:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when you have these long, drawn out, horizontal patterns in the MCSUM
2012-10-25 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would expect that the side that losses in gaining directional power is not likely to get it back again until we have some sort of capitation
2012-10-25 17:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so holding the zero line next week for the bulls can be the difference between seeing another rally to new recovery highs, or seeing ourselves moving sideways to lower for several more months
2012-10-25 17:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday wise
2012-10-25 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has had its problems holding "oversold" reflex rallies at the open of late
2012-10-25 17:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we've talked about before
2012-10-25 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a sign of a mature trend
2012-10-25 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that pretty much all of the willing and unwilling buyers (in this case) are in the market
2012-10-25 17:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and every reflex is just the shorts unloading which artificially pushes prices higher
2012-10-25 17:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excuse me...I'm doing a lot of thinking out loud tonight
2012-10-25 17:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I haven't seen things since Sunday
2012-10-25 17:28:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: good stuff, go ahead
2012-10-25 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the same situation with the Dow
2012-10-25 17:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with lower lows in the MCO
2012-10-25 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCSUM is now racing to its zero line
2012-10-25 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of +93
2012-10-25 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of different angles we can take here of what may happen at the zero line
2012-10-25 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now, let's consider yesterday's MCO extreme as a floor in the dynamics of breadth
2012-10-25 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should expect a couple of weeks, at a bare minimum, of some sort of constructive behavior off this low
2012-10-25 17:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we get to some good news
2012-10-25 17:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MID breadth MCO is supporting a second higher low this week
2012-10-25 17:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing us that with every sell off there is less of a demand to sell
2012-10-25 17:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's bullish
2012-10-25 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also see that even with the MID breadth failing to bounce off its zero line
2012-10-25 17:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then moving down and through the zero line
2012-10-25 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices did NOT collapse
2012-10-25 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're hanging tough at the 975 level
2012-10-25 17:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that money maybe moving out of high caps all right
2012-10-25 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looks to be moving into the MID Caps which may not have as much international exposure
2012-10-25 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe this sell off has something more to do on a global basis
2012-10-25 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in which we haven't heard about...yet
2012-10-25 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with that
2012-10-25 17:34:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a fairly low risk trade presents itself here for those who are nimble
2012-10-25 17:35:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going long with a stop .10 under the intraday lows of Tuesday
2012-10-25 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what this also tells us is also very important
2012-10-25 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we are not in sync here
2012-10-25 17:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the NDX and MID showing divergence
2012-10-25 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the NYA (though slightly so)
2012-10-25 17:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-10-25 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA and the MID are holding their price range support here
2012-10-25 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while other indices are not
2012-10-25 17:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have the potential now of bull divergence in the SML
2012-10-25 17:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an outside range day today suggesting an up close on Friday
2012-10-25 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so those who like the trade the Russell
2012-10-25 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might want to either cover your shorts...or maybe buy a call or two as insurance
2012-10-25 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a divergent low in the TM breadth MCO
2012-10-25 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with another outside range day on the Wilshire as well
2012-10-25 17:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-25 17:39:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had some technical damage that began on Friday and showed an all out collapse on Tuesday
2012-10-25 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but all in all
2012-10-25 17:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the response in prices has been generally muted
2012-10-25 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of the excitement was seen in the NDX
2012-10-25 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now that's starting to build some internal divergences here that need our attention
2012-10-25 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears
2012-10-25 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one more good whack here could put the market back into a longer term trading range that was expanded over the September period
2012-10-25 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the bulls
2012-10-25 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a near term attempt to right the ship is available to them
2012-10-25 17:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would seem that it's going to be a struggle now for at least a couple of weeks before we'll see any real attempt to build a platform from where we can rally
2012-10-25 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume oscillators
2012-10-25 17:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we went to climactic levels pretty much on Wednesday
2012-10-25 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the STVO's are now "oversold" again
2012-10-25 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are now on their way to an appointment of their own in the "oversold" area
2012-10-25 17:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until that is accomplished
2012-10-25 17:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to see a bottom in which prices can move up and out from
2012-10-25 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.07
2012-10-25 17:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.20
2012-10-25 17:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which will make it extremely difficult for the sellers to mount up any more downside momentum near term
2012-10-25 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.27
2012-10-25 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06
2012-10-25 17:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-10-25 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.23
2012-10-25 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.14 - "oversold"
2012-10-25 17:45:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bears are going to break this
2012-10-25 17:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will likely be accompanied by a news event to give it that extra push
2012-10-25 17:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but reasonably
2012-10-25 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should look now for a multi day period of firmness in the market
2012-10-25 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it goes about the business of lessening these same "oversold" readings
2012-10-25 17:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the day traders out there
2012-10-25 17:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the market as out of sync as it is right now
2012-10-25 17:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should play hit and run in both directions
2012-10-25 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a time to be married to any one position for more than a day
2012-10-25 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for traders and investors
2012-10-25 17:47:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will do
2012-10-25 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain on hold
2012-10-25 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with stops just below current levels
2012-10-25 17:47:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means everyone has to watch their issues on an individual basis
2012-10-25 17:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and place a hard stop to secure profit
2012-10-25 17:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at the very worse
2012-10-25 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to keep any issues that have gone against you from losing more than you need to
2012-10-25 17:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current indigestion in the market
2012-10-25 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no trend in either direction at this time
2012-10-25 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is nice to know that the MCSUM has, once again, proven its technical worth by being able to forecast a probable time for a top that came in almost exactly on schedule
2012-10-25 17:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now we have to wait for a new signal
2012-10-25 17:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to keep it real simple
2012-10-25 17:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: listen to what the BETS indicates and work with that
2012-10-25 17:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-10-25 17:50:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx much
2012-10-25 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the prelim on this weeks BETS
2012-10-25 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2012-10-25 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +10
2012-10-25 17:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cash
2012-10-25 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a good day tomorrow
2012-10-25 17:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we could be at +25
2012-10-25 17:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's how coiled we are right now
2012-10-25 17:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here
2012-10-25 17:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that
2012-10-25 17:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no rush to sell here
2012-10-25 17:52:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nor is there any rush to short
2012-10-25 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything
2012-10-25 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have fully relieved
2012-10-25 17:52:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or about to do so
2012-10-25 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the markets "overbought" extremes from September
2012-10-25 17:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so next week will probably give us the information we're looking for going into the end of the year
2012-10-25 17:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-10-25 17:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to Tuesday and Thursday next week
2012-10-25 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I should have November's chat schedule up this weekend
2012-10-25 17:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2012-10-25 17:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the Thanksgiving holiday coming up
2012-10-25 17:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you guys want to do just a Tuesday
2012-10-25 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or maybe Monday and Tuesday for that week?
2012-10-25 17:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does it matter?
2012-10-25 17:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to set it up as Monday/Tuesday
2012-10-25 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that
2012-10-25 17:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-10-25 17:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look next week
2012-10-25 17:56:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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