All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,532
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-10-25 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-10-25 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-10-25 16:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (must be sleeping )
2011-10-25 16:01:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Fine, and you?
2011-10-25 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...someone IS out there!
2011-10-25 16:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm fine...thanks for asking
2011-10-25 16:01:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yea, but could use some sleep, LOL
2011-10-25 16:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this has been a very easy market to trade of late
2011-10-25 16:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not worth losing sleep over
2011-10-25 16:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-25 16:02:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it has, but gotta have the best ponys-takes time to define them
2011-10-25 16:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions, comments, or observations from yesterday's rally?
2011-10-25 16:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was anyone buying today?
2011-10-25 16:04:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'd like to buy a small drop in the morning
2011-10-25 16:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and poor NFLX...
2011-10-25 16:04:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bwahaha
2011-10-25 16:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-10-25 16:04:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: even beat my target by 5 bux, I'm out
2011-10-25 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good for you!
2011-10-25 16:04:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-10-25 16:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now you own two islands?
2011-10-25 16:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (hopefully connecting ones)
2011-10-25 16:05:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 3 grandchildren-same cost, LOL
2011-10-25 16:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2011-10-25 16:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: spoiler!
2011-10-25 16:05:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: bet!
2011-10-25 16:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-10-25 16:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving above the August highs yesterday
2011-10-25 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved sharply lower today
2011-10-25 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would suggest that the booster engines were shut off over night
2011-10-25 16:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we are whipping back in our seats after this acceleration has ceased to move us forward
2011-10-25 16:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of note from yesterday
2011-10-25 16:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this spike high made yesterday provided a sharp expansion gap in the MCSUM above the declining tops line connecting the April and May high points
2011-10-25 16:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which we also know were the price highs we made in the spring
2011-10-25 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we have pointed out now for several weeks
2011-10-25 16:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we'll be able to breakout of the price consolidation pattern in the NYA index until we take out the rally failure MCSUM highs of last July
2011-10-25 16:10:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which we're now directly challenging
2011-10-25 16:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM has a reading of +197
2011-10-25 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we are within striking distance of the all important +250 level as well
2011-10-25 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we shouldn't be too surprised given the extra boost we got yesterday, and where we are in the MCSUM pattern, that our fuel source has been shut off and we're allowing momentum take over for a bit until, hopefully, we receive a new fuel source to continue on our upward journey
2011-10-25 16:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we do know is
2011-10-25 16:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with yesterday's spike in the CO MCO
2011-10-25 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it won't be because of the common stocks that we won't be able to break above the current price range
2011-10-25 16:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will have to come with the broader composite of the exchange itself
2011-10-25 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the composite has already moved above the +250 level
2011-10-25 16:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the odds are fairly high that it's only a matter of when we'll break out of this consolidation
2011-10-25 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the composite then
2011-10-25 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that even the interest rate sensitive issues were able to pull up the total NYA group of stocks to 52 week highs on the NYSE breadth MCO
2011-10-25 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: checking the 3 year...
2011-10-25 16:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was the highest level since last July
2011-10-25 16:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2011-10-25 16:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the declining tops line connecting the May and July tops on the NYSE breadth MCSUM were violated today to the upside
2011-10-25 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now only 175 data points away from challenging the more important line connecting November 2010 and February 2011 tops
2011-10-25 16:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 200 data points from challenging both the +500 level AND the same rally failure highs from last July
2011-10-25 16:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...as we've said before, still a lot of work to do here
2011-10-25 16:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we continue to move through any challenges with a great amount of ease to this point in time
2011-10-25 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's MCO reading remained with a higher bottom
2011-10-25 16:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our continuing complex structure above the zero line shows that the bulls remain fully in control of the action
2011-10-25 16:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our spike highs of yesterday now giving as close to a slam dunk chance now that any or all MCSUM resistance areas will indeed be challenged before we'll likely to see any chance of a turn in the MCSUM itself
2011-10-25 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as with the CO data
2011-10-25 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM also broke above its accelerated declining tops line on Monday
2011-10-25 16:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this now increases the chance that the declining tops line of these same time periods on the price chart will also be violated as well during this same sequence
2011-10-25 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer line of MCSUM resistance is the line which will tell us if new recovery price highs will be accomplished during this specific sequence or not
2011-10-25 16:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we have some important information to trade with our long positions
2011-10-25 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are still waiting on the question of how long and how high we're likely to go
2011-10-25 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the best news during this run is that traders continue to plow into every single pullback as being a top
2011-10-25 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today, for example, the ISEE number came in again at a very low 71
2011-10-25 16:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears are once again trying to catch a turn in the pattern
2011-10-25 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2011-10-25 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals suggest that any turn in prices is not likely for at least another two weeks
2011-10-25 16:26:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NYA, today was the same kind of thing we saw when the SPX, OEX, and Dow when they reached their overhead resistance areas of this same consolidation pattern
2011-10-25 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in their case
2011-10-25 16:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had to back and fill for about a week before we finally broke to new highs
2011-10-25 16:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we see the same thing here again with the NYA (and possibly the MID and SML) in this same position?
2011-10-25 16:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see in a moment
2011-10-25 16:28:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved higher yesterday
2011-10-25 16:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it did NOT move to a higher high in this sequence giving us some near term divergence in the pattern
2011-10-25 16:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it should also be noted that what yesterday's spike did do was provide a gap expansion breakout above the declining tops line connecting the January and July highs on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2011-10-25 16:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also occurred as we moved above the -250 level
2011-10-25 16:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate that our next potential area of resistance here will likely come at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM zero line
2011-10-25 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, looking at the pattern, is exactly where our horizontal and rally failure resistance points lie
2011-10-25 16:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should then be understood without any hesitation
2011-10-25 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if these same highs are violated
2011-10-25 16:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be a highly bullish event
2011-10-25 16:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that new recovery/all time highs will be seen on many, if not all, of the major market indices
2011-10-25 16:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...remember...
2011-10-25 16:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Bond CEF and Preferred advance/decline lines continue to make new all time highs
2011-10-25 16:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as these two A/D derivatives continue to make higher and higher highs (all time or not)
2011-10-25 16:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it PROMISES us that equities will also continue to trend in this same direction
2011-10-25 16:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as far as the NASDAQ price pattern is concerned
2011-10-25 16:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today would satisfy the technical expectation of a quick and sharp snapback to what was previous overhead resistance in a strongly advancing price trend
2011-10-25 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, we could chop around here for further testing
2011-10-25 16:34:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not likely that we're quite done to the upside as yet given the market's ability to move to higher highs in many of the MCO's on Monday
2011-10-25 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we see when this happens below the MCO zero line
2011-10-25 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each time the MCO makes a higher high, it "resets" both the time line and amplitude of the rally itself
2011-10-25 16:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we now need still need to see bearish texture before the actual price pattern will slow enough to show decay and then be able to move in the opposite direction
2011-10-25 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...at a minimum...we're still about a week away from any kind of turnaround worth our utmost attention
2011-10-25 16:38:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who might think this to be a bit on the naive side given the fundamentals supporting this rally
2011-10-25 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be an interesting test tomorrow IF nothing comes out that's a positive from Europe
2011-10-25 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, to be brutally honest
2011-10-25 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market has already discounted a default back with the August crash
2011-10-25 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now looking toward the 1st quarter of next year
2011-10-25 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least that's the theory
2011-10-25 16:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-25 16:39:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO did make a higher high yesterday
2011-10-25 16:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor here
2011-10-25 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it appears that the NDX breadth MCSUM is not only at it's declining tops line of the last year, but we are also at the +500 "escape velocity" level as well
2011-10-25 16:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, one of two things is likely here
2011-10-25 16:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either we consolidate...maybe move sideways...maybe move a bit lower
2011-10-25 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we blow through two areas of major technical resistance
2011-10-25 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern and it's current level in relation to its 2011 highs
2011-10-25 16:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a move above these same internal resistance points in the NDX data would likely be in full co-ordination of an upside price breakout in the NDX index itself
2011-10-25 16:43:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will have to happen concurrently for it to be decisive
2011-10-25 16:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lack of internal energy, with a new price high, would create a vacuum that would need to be filled
2011-10-25 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if breadth leads above these same resistance levels, prices shouldn't be far behind
2011-10-25 16:44:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...a pretty easy plan here near term
2011-10-25 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's put up or shut up
2011-10-25 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the timing for Wednesday and Europe's decision
2011-10-25 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there would be no better excuse to be given to the masses would there?
2011-10-25 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always fascinating how the market can time its movements to news events
2011-10-25 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tomorrow will probably be no different
2011-10-25 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO did move above its September highs on Monday
2011-10-25 16:46:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but fell short on its August spike
2011-10-25 16:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2011-10-25 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's pop in the internals did produce two important technical violations
2011-10-25 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we moved above both the +500 level AND we moved above the MCSUM rally failure highs
2011-10-25 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's action provided our price snapback to or towards the 1225 area
2011-10-25 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this all remains in a bottoms above bottoms configuration
2011-10-25 16:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this line of positive influence is violated
2011-10-25 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nod continues to be with the bulls
2011-10-25 16:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another interesting tidbit as chartists
2011-10-25 16:49:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that you'll notice that yesterday's close in the SPX was pretty much at what was the lower boundary of the previous horizontal trading range from the February period (the tsunami lows of March)
2011-10-25 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we found resistance
2011-10-25 16:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we are testing what used to be resistance
2011-10-25 16:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this now becomes support
2011-10-25 16:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then prices can put on an all out assault on this same resistance that lies above us
2011-10-25 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we already know
2011-10-25 16:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with the internals already broke out out here
2011-10-25 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that this next test above is very likely to be a successful move back into this same horizontal range that controlled the price pattern for the better part of 6 months
2011-10-25 16:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as we continue in this effort with the proper rhythm
2011-10-25 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then there's nothing really to keep us from continuing to play the long side
2011-10-25 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2011-10-25 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here is where we can actually see how we've lost much of the energy that got us here in the last couple of days
2011-10-25 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the divergent high on Monday was followed by lower low in the MCO today
2011-10-25 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that much of the money that was moving into the OEX is now moving into other areas given the information provided by the NYA breadth MCO
2011-10-25 16:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is now moving more broadly within the market itself
2011-10-25 16:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one reason could be valuation
2011-10-25 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but another reason is that traders are now feeling more and more confident that this 4 month indigestion period is just about over and that "clarity" is becoming more and more vivid
2011-10-25 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2011-10-25 16:56:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you remember when you were a kid and we used to see these plate jugulars?
2011-10-25 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who would spin plates on top of sticks?
2011-10-25 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the OEX as being one of those plates that have been spun enough that its inertia will keep it going
2011-10-25 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we'll have the opportunity to add more plates - and for those already spinning but losing their spin - to help them along to join the rotation of the OEX plate
2011-10-25 16:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing here technically
2011-10-25 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the OEX breadth MCSUM is not only at the +750 level
2011-10-25 16:58:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are now perceptively above the May highs
2011-10-25 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which were the actual price highs of the pattern
2011-10-25 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further strength from here
2011-10-25 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would increase the likelihood that new recovery highs will also be seen in the OEX itself
2011-10-25 16:59:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's a 40 point run
2011-10-25 17:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Lew...how are OEX call options priced these days?
2011-10-25 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fairly valued?
2011-10-25 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we wait
2011-10-25 17:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO also has the same divergent pattern as the OEX
2011-10-25 17:01:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it remains with a bottom above bottom pattern
2011-10-25 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Dow breadth MCSUM has a current reading of +704
2011-10-25 17:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have room for a little more push
2011-10-25 17:02:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: little high, not bad
2011-10-25 17:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even after a 80 point rally??
2011-10-25 17:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-10-25 17:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...speaking of options
2011-10-25 17:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the VIX did close under 30 yesterday
2011-10-25 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more than likely closed back above that level today
2011-10-25 17:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look
2011-10-25 17:04:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...32
2011-10-25 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2011-10-25 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains below its 20 day sma
2011-10-25 17:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as it does
2011-10-25 17:04:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have control of the price action
2011-10-25 17:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least on a short term basis
2011-10-25 17:05:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think options would be cheaper if it would drop a tad
2011-10-25 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need a break below the 30 level on the VIX for at least 2 days to have more of an intermediate term signal there
2011-10-25 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you do me a quick favor?
2011-10-25 17:05:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2011-10-25 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check the December 555 call and puts and let's see what the premiums are
2011-10-25 17:06:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will do
2011-10-25 17:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks
2011-10-25 17:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the MID data
2011-10-25 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO did move to 4 month highs yesterday
2011-10-25 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor here
2011-10-25 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the declining tops line connecting the April and May highs were violated to the upside yesterday
2011-10-25 17:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're challenging both the +500 level and the rally failure highs
2011-10-25 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it's always fascinating that in what looks to be chaotic action, the markets tend to be very orderly
2011-10-25 17:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have 4 or 5 index internals now up against their rally failure MCSUM highs
2011-10-25 17:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some at the +500 level as well
2011-10-25 17:09:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 20$ premium
2011-10-25 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on which side?
2011-10-25 17:09:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: either
2011-10-25 17:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flat?
2011-10-25 17:09:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2011-10-25 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...well...that's not cheap is it?
2011-10-25 17:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-25 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the players are indecisive near term
2011-10-25 17:09:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: depends, LOL
2011-10-25 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side would have the ball (the larger premium) based on what the pit thinks
2011-10-25 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they're evened up going into tomorrow?
2011-10-25 17:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's after a pretty good shake out after a 4 week run?
2011-10-25 17:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: kind of favors the calls I would think
2011-10-25 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for looking it up
2011-10-25 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML data
2011-10-25 17:11:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my mistake, calls are carrying 25
2011-10-25 17:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we seem to having problems near term
2011-10-25 17:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's better
2011-10-25 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a whole lot of premium though - whew!
2011-10-25 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 25 - wow
2011-10-25 17:12:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep!
2011-10-25 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only 45 days to OPEX?
2011-10-25 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...more like 50
2011-10-25 17:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still...
2011-10-25 17:13:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: guess someone sees a big move coming
2011-10-25 17:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: darn volatility
2011-10-25 17:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more likely there is too much emotion and not enough discipline here
2011-10-25 17:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...25?
2011-10-25 17:13:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: true
2011-10-25 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes me want to go out and sell some calls!
2011-10-25 17:14:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's why I've been playing individual issues
2011-10-25 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing...I haven't looked at options in so long
2011-10-25 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it's just the way the animal is these days?
2011-10-25 17:14:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: separates the wheat from the chaff, LOL
2011-10-25 17:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gotcha
2011-10-25 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deep pockets for sure
2011-10-25 17:15:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...back to the SML
2011-10-25 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see how the small caps, although moving higher, don't seem to be getting a large enough piece of the money flow pie at this juncture
2011-10-25 17:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe we're starting to see a shift here by way of what the OEX breadth MCO is showing?
2011-10-25 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...something to watch for on any further weakness with the OEX and where the money is rotating to
2011-10-25 17:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then looking at the total market
2011-10-25 17:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that Monday's rally also allowed the TM breadth MCSUM to not only move above its zero line
2011-10-25 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also violated the declining tops line connecting the February and July MCSUM tops
2011-10-25 17:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooo...
2011-10-25 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to control the action on a short term basis
2011-10-25 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we saw our first indication that the energy that drove us to these current levels may be starting to wane a bit
2011-10-25 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that fresh funds will probably be needed now to keep the ball rolling
2011-10-25 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many of the internals, as well as many price patterns, are now up against some important resistance levels
2011-10-25 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we usually get some sort of news event that provides the acknowledgment that the price structure's trend as being undeniable
2011-10-25 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume McClellan's look
2011-10-25 17:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO volume MCSUM is now up against its +250 level
2011-10-25 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news here is that we have already moved above several layers of horizontal resistance to get here
2011-10-25 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the composite NYSE volume MCSUM
2011-10-25 17:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that yesterday's volume numbers provided us with a gap above the important +250 level
2011-10-25 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also above the rally failure highs of last July
2011-10-25 17:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically then we are pretty much in the clear now on  the volume side of the equation
2011-10-25 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all we would need to have happen now is a high volume daily stick on any robust (breakout) move to the upside
2011-10-25 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then confirm this notion of being "in the clear" to move to higher price highs
2011-10-25 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-10-25 17:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though like its breadth cousin, the NASDAQ volume MCO did pull up short yesterday from making higher highs
2011-10-25 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bad news and good news I guess
2011-10-25 17:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bad news because of the divergence
2011-10-25 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good news in that both breadth and volume are moving unilaterally
2011-10-25 17:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next area of a potential problem for the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is at the +500 level
2011-10-25 17:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same patterns with the NDX volume MCO and MCSUM
2011-10-25 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the key here is with the divergent NDX volume MCSUM lows we see here at the August lows
2011-10-25 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that we should see further strength for a bit more time
2011-10-25 17:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much holding back the pattern if we can get above the +900 level
2011-10-25 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of +648
2011-10-25 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see what happens as we approach the +750 level
2011-10-25 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCSUM looks very bullish now
2011-10-25 17:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking out pattern highs and the +250 level without much of any problems at all
2011-10-25 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only problem here is that we have already transversed some 1650 data points
2011-10-25 17:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one would think that we're getting mighty close to some sort of pause point
2011-10-25 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure
2011-10-25 17:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume plurality sure was mixed yesterday
2011-10-25 17:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCO looks almost exactly like its breadth counter part
2011-10-25 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX volume MCSUM now has a reading of +478
2011-10-25 17:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the next day or so should provide some important intermediate term information
2011-10-25 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCSUM gaped above the +250 level yesterday
2011-10-25 17:34:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so did the MID volume MCSUM
2011-10-25 17:35:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we can get above the +500 level, the bear's are likely going have to hibernate for a while
2011-10-25 17:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe into the February/March period of next year
2011-10-25 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...it looks as though that the bulls will control things for at least another 2-3 weeks
2011-10-25 17:36:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but any moves above the +500 levels will push that out to next year
2011-10-25 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an important couple of days coming up here for both sides
2011-10-25 17:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCSUM is now right up against it's longer term declining tops line connecting the December and February highs
2011-10-25 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Monday's gap expansion providing upside strength above the declining tops line connecting the May and July highs
2011-10-25 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM gaped its way above the +250 level yesterday putting us now technically "in the clear"
2011-10-25 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2011-10-25 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess it's a matter of how much longer do you think we can see this continued strength come in?
2011-10-25 17:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2011-10-25 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only been 4 weeks since the 10/4 lows
2011-10-25 17:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO shows that historically it can stay above or below the zero line for up to 6 weeks at a time
2011-10-25 17:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we do have to work with by far
2011-10-25 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if one were to take any kind of short position
2011-10-25 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is strictly a "hit and run" market
2011-10-25 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the longs have control
2011-10-25 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continue to meet any and all challenges as we move higher
2011-10-25 17:41:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2011-10-25 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance remains with the bulls
2011-10-25 17:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we continue to "correct on the fly" with the TRIN numbers
2011-10-25 17:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are dead neutral
2011-10-25 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2011-10-25 17:42:48 [Message] gman -> Chat: If this is a third way of higher degree, could (or would) you expect this up to 6 weeks to possibly be even a longer run?
2011-10-25 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "overbought"
2011-10-25 17:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are now highly "overbought"
2011-10-25 17:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...if this is a 3rd wave of intermediate to primary degree it will run for months
2011-10-25 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem though
2011-10-25 17:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this may be because that we're just at the beginning stages
2011-10-25 17:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we still have a lot of inconsistencies between breadth and volume
2011-10-25 17:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do remain in sync which is typical of 3rd wave structures
2011-10-25 17:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...this might because of the large thumb on the scale with the EU situation
2011-10-25 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: similar to how the FED plays with overnight rates
2011-10-25 17:45:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or when there is some sort of problems with the Middle East and how it can affect oil prices
2011-10-25 17:45:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure
2011-10-25 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if all that the players are waiting for is for a group of governments to get their act together
2011-10-25 17:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they do...the move higher from here has a high likelihood of being explosive as clarity is finally known
2011-10-25 17:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we are at many areas of important technical resistance
2011-10-25 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remembering that the very backbone of 3rd waves is that they are "wonders to behold" because they violate very important levels of either support or resistance as trades are executed on these same violations
2011-10-25 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trade executions tend to happen so quickly...well...let's like 100 people trying to get through a revolving door all at the same time
2011-10-25 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once they do
2011-10-25 17:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they buy or sell at any price
2011-10-25 17:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just so they can either cover or jump on the train (that's already left the station)
2011-10-25 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember - we did have our buy signals 2 weeks ago
2011-10-25 17:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not at the beginning in Los Angeles train station
2011-10-25 17:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in Las Vegas
2011-10-25 17:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, BTW, I do want to point out
2011-10-25 17:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that once again
2011-10-25 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a Las Vegas trade show occurred right at an important turning point in the market
2011-10-25 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that it was the last week of September
2011-10-25 17:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a bad indicator
2011-10-25 17:50:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the TRIN'S
2011-10-25 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing...
2011-10-25 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 2.24
2011-10-25 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a buy signal
2011-10-25 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .97
2011-10-25 17:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.23
2011-10-25 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .88
2011-10-25 17:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2011-10-25 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.57
2011-10-25 17:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2011-10-25 17:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2011-10-25 17:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be setting up for a kind of an echo of last weeks market action
2011-10-25 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we rallied sharply early in the week...chopped around Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, and then had our follow through on Friday
2011-10-25 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a purist here
2011-10-25 17:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be good to see us continue to back and fill here to relieve some of the current "overbought" oscillators
2011-10-25 17:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO being one of them
2011-10-25 17:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check how it settled today on the stochastic
2011-10-25 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE at 74
2011-10-25 17:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ at 64
2011-10-25 17:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still pretty high
2011-10-25 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we have a pattern of strength here
2011-10-25 17:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is for a pullback to the 50% level to relieve any imbalance
2011-10-25 17:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we can push right up again
2011-10-25 17:55:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2011-10-25 17:55:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have control
2011-10-25 17:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears are at a point in which they MUST provide some defense here or they're likely done for the year
2011-10-25 17:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-10-25 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2011-10-25 17:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fashion is about as bullish as you can get for spring 2012
2011-10-25 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll post some links for what's being shown for spring 12 in the next couple of days
2011-10-25 17:57:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the summer
2011-10-25 17:58:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a movement towards bright, vibrant colors
2011-10-25 17:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's always a good thing for the bulls
2011-10-25 17:58:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments??
2011-10-25 17:59:09 [Message] tracca -> Chat: many thanks
2011-10-25 17:59:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: shorts aren't stopping, fuel builds
2011-10-25 17:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's amazing
2011-10-25 17:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every time we get a trip and fall
2011-10-25 17:59:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it is~
2011-10-25 17:59:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ISEE zooms to deeply negative numbers
2011-10-25 17:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is so much desperation for things to fall apart here
2011-10-25 18:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that, in and of itself, is just food for the bulls
2011-10-25 18:00:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and with a billion or two to steal....unlikely
2011-10-25 18:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that matters is where money is going and how much there is for investment
2011-10-25 18:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this other stuff is just a distraction
2011-10-25 18:01:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm just saying that put money has a target on it
2011-10-25 18:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: agreed
2011-10-25 18:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if at first you don't succeed in August
2011-10-25 18:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or September
2011-10-25 18:01:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or October
2011-10-25 18:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the November's will be the golden ring
2011-10-25 18:02:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, some of that's coming to me, LOL
2011-10-25 18:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll...that's good
2011-10-25 18:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for every buyer there's a seller
2011-10-25 18:02:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep!
2011-10-25 18:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or so we're told
2011-10-25 18:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm going to take off
2011-10-25 18:02:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2011-10-25 18:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-10-25 18:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2011-10-25 18:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch