All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,532
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-10-24 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-10-24 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-10-24 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-10-24 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want to take a moment to welcome Larry (larz) to the chat room!
2013-10-24 16:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask as we move along
2013-10-24 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and see what's going on
2013-10-24 16:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after failing to move to new highs on Tuesday
2013-10-24 16:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved lower on Wednesday
2013-10-24 16:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got an obligatory bounce higher today
2013-10-24 16:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price pattern wise
2013-10-24 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did not close yesterday's downside gap on the NYA price chart
2013-10-24 16:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which allows for at least one more back and fill day as soon as Friday
2013-10-24 16:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far at the MCO is concerned
2013-10-24 16:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO components at the bottom of the chart suggest that we'll likely show continued buoyancy in prices regardless of any near term sag in the price pattern
2013-10-24 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2013-10-24 16:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain on target in challenging our next level of natural resistance at the +750 level
2013-10-24 16:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today closing with a +622 reading
2013-10-24 16:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-10-24 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have a small point change tonight
2013-10-24 16:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2013-10-24 16:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a dramatic move is of least 1%
2013-10-24 16:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we see with the current MCO structure
2013-10-24 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the interest rate sensitive issues that make up the NYSE are fairly strong right now
2013-10-24 16:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggests that interest rates are likely to sag further to the downside
2013-10-24 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that any close below 2.45% in the 10 year note will then provide a new downside target of 2.15%
2013-10-24 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently we're at 2.52%
2013-10-24 16:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we still have a bit of room still yet to go before we'll have any kind of trigger for that kind of event
2013-10-24 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the NYSE breadth MCSUM settled with a reading of +467
2013-10-24 16:14:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any move above the +500 level providing us with "escape velocity"
2013-10-24 16:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where prices can trend more freely without the hindrance of sellers holding back the action
2013-10-24 16:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2013-10-24 16:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that just above the +500 level we have horizontal resistance as well
2013-10-24 16:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any double break above these two levels
2013-10-24 16:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will then allow prices to move with more dynamics to the upside
2013-10-24 16:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 10% Trend component
2013-10-24 16:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that with a reading today of +136 which is not anywhere near being "overbought"
2013-10-24 16:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OH...
2013-10-24 16:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and before I forget
2013-10-24 16:17:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE came in today with a 68 reading
2013-10-24 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the speculative put buyers are once again trying to pick a top here
2013-10-24 16:17:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should add fuel to what is already a burning fire
2013-10-24 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2013-10-24 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have now arrived at horizontal resistance
2013-10-24 16:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further strength by the buyers
2013-10-24 16:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will then allow prices to not only accelerate to the upside
2013-10-24 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we will likely meet our upside price target of 4000 on the NASDAQ Composite that was given back in the spring of this year by the end of this month
2013-10-24 16:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently we closed at 3929 today
2013-10-24 16:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do get a 1% move there in the next two days
2013-10-24 16:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would put us within spitting distance of this target at 3969
2013-10-24 16:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM is now challenging the +750 level settling today at +751
2013-10-24 16:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll either accelerate higher from here or find some near term resistance in the pattern
2013-10-24 16:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and interestingly enough
2013-10-24 16:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the NASDAQ and the NDX are both at important intermediate term junctures now
2013-10-24 16:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any pop above these internal resistance points are likely to equal quite a bit of upside movement in prices as money begins to "recognize" the path of least resistance
2013-10-24 16:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the 10% Trend bounced higher today after "kissing" the 5% Trend on Wednesday
2013-10-24 16:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very typical technical action overall
2013-10-24 16:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2013-10-24 16:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday provided a pull back buy point in the current advancing price structure
2013-10-24 16:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those who took advantage of it, the percentages suggest that they will likely feel the benefits near term
2013-10-24 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small pop higher as well on the SPX breadth MCO
2013-10-24 16:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the SPX breadth MCSUM is now in its second day of being above the +500 level
2013-10-24 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it still remains below horizontal resistance at this time
2013-10-24 16:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX close up price chart
2013-10-24 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see what looks to be a simple "pause to refresh" consolidation going on right now
2013-10-24 16:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with little to show in correcting lower
2013-10-24 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only should we see an upside break out of this pause
2013-10-24 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will tend to be more on the dramatic side given the lack of selling
2013-10-24 16:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small bounce higher as well with the OEX breadth MCO
2013-10-24 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCSUM now only 77 data points away from challenging the +500 level
2013-10-24 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any pop higher in the next two days should get us there
2013-10-24 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good news for the Dow bulls as the Dow breadth MCSUM moved up and through its zero line today
2013-10-24 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we tend to see with this kind of violation
2013-10-24 16:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices showed a nice amount of amplitude with the bulls now taking more control of the action
2013-10-24 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...there's still a lot of work yet to do before we'll see new all time price highs in the pattern
2013-10-24 16:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's zero line cross is a good start towards that objective
2013-10-24 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change tonight on the MID breadth MCO
2013-10-24 16:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID breadth MCSUM has now moved above the +800 level which now allows the pattern to see a likely challenge of the +1000 level
2013-10-24 16:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2013-10-24 16:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we're still about 100 data points away from challenging the longer term declining tops line connecting the May and July tops
2013-10-24 16:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, for now, steady as she goes
2013-10-24 16:33:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO also saw a pop higher
2013-10-24 16:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will serve as a simple snapback to the +50 level
2013-10-24 16:34:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart
2013-10-24 16:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we once again closed at new all time highs today
2013-10-24 16:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the SML has been leading the market higher now over the last couple of weeks
2013-10-24 16:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a good indication on what the market's intentions might be as soon as Friday
2013-10-24 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM has also moved above the +750 level as well
2013-10-24 16:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect to see this indicator continue higher to or towards the +1000 as our next technical objective
2013-10-24 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would mean, of course, that the buyers will remain pretty much in control of things until we get there
2013-10-24 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or to be more direct
2013-10-24 16:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers have very little power right now
2013-10-24 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and won't have for the rest of the month
2013-10-24 16:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2013-10-24 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the TM breadth MCSUM crossed above the +400 level today
2013-10-24 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-24 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected on Tuesday
2013-10-24 16:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last couple of days was the market's way of taking a breather off of our mid range closes we saw that day
2013-10-24 16:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while we continued to build a nice base for another run to new highs that should take place by the time we meet again next Tuesday
2013-10-24 16:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the sectors
2013-10-24 16:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high price close today in the XLY index
2013-10-24 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is an important clue as to the markets anticipating firm economic growth moving forward
2013-10-24 16:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2013-10-24 16:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder if we'll ever have employment data include part time workers in the future
2013-10-24 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the Government has killed the 40 hour week
2013-10-24 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many firms are hiring
2013-10-24 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not for more than 20 or 30 hours a week because of ACA
2013-10-24 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2013-10-24 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they don't have to give them the perks of breaks and lunches
2013-10-24 16:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which increases productivity
2013-10-24 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which keeps inflation in check
2013-10-24 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway..just thinking out loud given the strength we see in the discretionary sector
2013-10-24 16:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the XLY breadth MCSUM is also at the edge of moving above the +500 level as well
2013-10-24 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any new higher highs we might see in the XLY breadth MCO will certainly set the tone for this basket of stocks probably right through the Thanksgiving holiday
2013-10-24 16:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a new all time high close in the XLP on Wednesday
2013-10-24 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the rest of the market sagged
2013-10-24 16:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLP breadth MCO continues to support a nice amount of texture with bottoms above bottoms continuing to control the pattern
2013-10-24 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intermediate term though, the buyers still a have bit more work to do in order to keep prices in the new all time highs territory
2013-10-24 16:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breakout and snapback now complete in the XLE price action
2013-10-24 16:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLE breadth MCO finding natural support at the +25 level
2013-10-24 16:49:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as this level holds
2013-10-24 16:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that we are developing a complex bullish structure above the zero line
2013-10-24 16:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should help propel prices to new all time highs over the near term
2013-10-24 16:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that we cleared the +250 level on the XLE breadth MCSUM on Wednesday
2013-10-24 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one could move long at these levels with a stop at .10 below today's intraday lows
2013-10-24 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCO also found support at the +25 level today
2013-10-24 16:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLF breadth MCSUM is now challenging the important +500 level with a close today at +492
2013-10-24 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further strength near term here would certainly go a long way in seeing prices accelerate to new highs
2013-10-24 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our current target of 25 as our short term objective
2013-10-24 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO moved to a lower low today
2013-10-24 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would suggest that money is rotating out of this pool of stocks into something else...at least for now
2013-10-24 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern itself
2013-10-24 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have another one of these ascending triangle configurations
2013-10-24 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we usually see an upside breakout from the pattern
2013-10-24 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term though
2013-10-24 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's bothersome that we had a rally failure in attempting to make new price highs
2013-10-24 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then showed a lower MCO reading
2013-10-24 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually, under this kind of circumstance
2013-10-24 16:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to chop around for a couple more days before trying again
2013-10-24 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how this plays out near term
2013-10-24 16:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time closing highs today in the XLI index
2013-10-24 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also moved perceptively to new highs in the XLI breadth MCO with these same price highs
2013-10-24 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike last week where we were seeing this sector fall behind the rest of the market
2013-10-24 16:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now see a new attention coming into this arena
2013-10-24 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this basket of stocks is closely related to the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports
2013-10-24 16:58:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect to see both of these averages continue to gain more and more momentum to the upside
2013-10-24 16:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2013-10-24 16:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Transports were above the 7000 level earlier in the day today
2013-10-24 16:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check to see where they closed
2013-10-24 16:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 7022
2013-10-24 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so new all time highs there
2013-10-24 16:59:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the heavy weight of the index, FED EX, is leading the charge there at new all time highs of its own
2013-10-24 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: closing today at 131
2013-10-24 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO continues to show bullish character in its structure
2013-10-24 17:00:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it bounced off the +50 level today
2013-10-24 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2013-10-24 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM moved up and through the +500 level today
2013-10-24 17:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the outside range day today
2013-10-24 17:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see another probe into all time high territory in the index as soon as Friday
2013-10-24 17:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCSUM is now at +750 resistance with a close today of +747
2013-10-24 17:03:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further strength there will then allow prices to extend into new recovery high territory
2013-10-24 17:03:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check again the upside target on this one..
2013-10-24 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm...
2013-10-24 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just cleared it today
2013-10-24 17:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's nothing between here at the 33.50 level and the 50 level
2013-10-24 17:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this one is also shaping up to be a good play
2013-10-24 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-10-24 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about many times over the last couple of years
2013-10-24 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two sectors that will probably lead us to higher price highs during this sequence are the ones that no one wants to even consider...the financials and tech
2013-10-24 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here we have another low risk entry point
2013-10-24 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any initial stop .10 below yesterday's intraday lows
2013-10-24 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU breadth MCO continues to trace out a complex bullish structure above its zero line
2013-10-24 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the price pattern now looks to be "stair stepping" to the upside on the back of breaking out of its longer term symmetrical triangle seen on the daily chart
2013-10-24 17:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the objective there of around the 41 level
2013-10-24 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-24 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the market continues to gain strength overall
2013-10-24 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's enough of it right now to keep prices from declining in any important way
2013-10-24 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any break to new highs in the next couple of days
2013-10-24 17:09:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: extending the time line of when our next likely event of a top of more than a pause to take place to around the Thanksgiving period
2013-10-24 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, this year, falls on November 28th
2013-10-24 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the end of November
2013-10-24 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume McClellan's are doing
2013-10-24 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO and Composite Volume MCO's look stable
2013-10-24 17:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NASDAQ volume MCO continues to look a bit weak here
2013-10-24 17:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has pushed the NASDAQ volume MCSUM to lower lows
2013-10-24 17:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the current reading of +761
2013-10-24 17:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers will need to step in by Monday
2013-10-24 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're likely to see a pullback that would last more than a day
2013-10-24 17:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we look at the 1 year price chart of the NASDAQ
2013-10-24 17:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can see how it continues to stretch out to the upside
2013-10-24 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing that the path of least resistance remains strong at this time
2013-10-24 17:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-10-24 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's currently above a 45 degree angle
2013-10-24 17:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we get above this degree of strength
2013-10-24 17:13:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: do we really want to come very far through that 750 summation, though?
2013-10-24 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take quite some time for the opposing side to provide enough damage to where a change in trend can actually take place
2013-10-24 17:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as we remain above the +500 level Lew
2013-10-24 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can continue to gain amplitude
2013-10-24 17:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2013-10-24 17:14:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: OK, thx
2013-10-24 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the shuttle is at 200 miles above the planet
2013-10-24 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't need as much energy, fuel, to move to 210 miles above the planet
2013-10-24 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would moving from 175 miles to 185 miles
2013-10-24 17:15:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the closer we get toward gravity's influence
2013-10-24 17:15:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more fuel that's needed to keep this same upside direction in motion
2013-10-24 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as you can see on the MCSUM chart
2013-10-24 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we haven't been below the +400 level for quite some time now
2013-10-24 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still prices continue to rise
2013-10-24 17:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lower the MCSUM goes
2013-10-24 17:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just takes more effort for prices to build on what they've already accomplished
2013-10-24 17:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of streaking higher, for example
2013-10-24 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will tend to chop higher
2013-10-24 17:17:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice too
2013-10-24 17:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that every test of the +450/+500 area provided a significant bounce in prices
2013-10-24 17:17:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the sellers can show enough imbalance to break this support
2013-10-24 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the path of least resistance will remain higher
2013-10-24 17:18:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep. guess I wasn't liking the MCO sub zero along with it..
2013-10-24 17:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX volume MCO
2013-10-24 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see what our problem is
2013-10-24 17:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the top 100 issues of the NASDAQ
2013-10-24 17:18:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-10-24 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't so much Apple right now as it is NetFlix
2013-10-24 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Google is also strong
2013-10-24 17:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's probably something like a sector or two causing the problems right now
2013-10-24 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you have Biotech
2013-10-24 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have tech
2013-10-24 17:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if tech is holding up its end
2013-10-24 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it's likely the the other
2013-10-24 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a look at the index
2013-10-24 17:20:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2013-10-24 17:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XBI was down 13% in 3 days two weeks ago
2013-10-24 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I guess that's part the problem
2013-10-24 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least
2013-10-24 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not helping the situation
2013-10-24 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but meanwhile
2013-10-24 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the foreign index that's comparable to the NASDAQ, the DAX, closed at new all time highs today
2013-10-24 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's A/D line is also at all time highs
2013-10-24 17:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'm not too worried here
2013-10-24 17:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: besides
2013-10-24 17:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all the strength in growth area in September
2013-10-24 17:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a pull back as money moves to value isn't too surprising
2013-10-24 17:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2013-10-24 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at face value
2013-10-24 17:23:02 [Message] larz -> Chat: Any thoughts on XAU?
2013-10-24 17:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this weakness in the volume MCO's is not helping prices keep up with the large, mid and small caps
2013-10-24 17:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XAU's A/D line remains near 7 1/2 lows
2013-10-24 17:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much of the rally going on in the precious metals right now is more currency related than anything else
2013-10-24 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the metals are always an excitable asset class anyway
2013-10-24 17:24:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but, at this time, much what we're seeing there is corrective and not trending
2013-10-24 17:24:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I would add that the dollar is approaching multi-year support levels
2013-10-24 17:25:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look at that
2013-10-24 17:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the key there is the 71 level
2013-10-24 17:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're not even close to that
2013-10-24 17:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being at 79
2013-10-24 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we do have to consider
2013-10-24 17:26:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with the Bonds continuing to move higher here
2013-10-24 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the possibility of continued strength yet to come
2013-10-24 17:27:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way this would take place is if the US economy remains sluggish
2013-10-24 17:27:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as gold has not indicated at all that the FED has been stimulating the market
2013-10-24 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one of those times in which we should try not to figure out why things are what they are
2013-10-24 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but to just follow money's leadership and wait to what the reasons are later on
2013-10-24 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...right now
2013-10-24 17:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on breadth
2013-10-24 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is in a counter trend rally
2013-10-24 17:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities are firming and about to move higher
2013-10-24 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: debt is also in counter trend mode
2013-10-24 17:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and equities are bullish
2013-10-24 17:29:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2013-10-24 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when that changes...we will as well
2013-10-24 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the SPX volume MCO
2013-10-24 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still above its zero line
2013-10-24 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is happening with the higher weighted caps in the NDX showing little in the way of support
2013-10-24 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line bounce today in the MID volume MCO
2013-10-24 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MID volume MCSUM is now challenging its +500 level
2013-10-24 17:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so some commitment by the buyers is needed, here and now, or we'll likely see a multi day back and fill event in this basket of stocks
2013-10-24 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you get to the SML volume MCO
2013-10-24 17:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the strength there is surprising given the weakness in the MID and NDX
2013-10-24 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's keeping things from coming apart
2013-10-24 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we know all too well
2013-10-24 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're going to see a price top if we see the SML showing this kind of strength of pattern
2013-10-24 17:33:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO is back below its zero line with a -8 reading
2013-10-24 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2013-10-24 17:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at breadth, it says the bulls should grab the ring
2013-10-24 17:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they will need to get better conviction in the amount of money they are willing to commit towards this goal
2013-10-24 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we'll not likely top out around the beginning of the month
2013-10-24 17:35:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2013-10-24 17:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still look like we have enough behind us to continue to move higher until the end of this month
2013-10-24 17:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that hasn't changed
2013-10-24 17:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-10-24 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we look at the volume oscillators
2013-10-24 17:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TRIN
2013-10-24 17:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one advantage of these weaker volume MCO's against the stronger breadth MCO's is that we're likely to see deeper "oversold" readings in the Open 10's
2013-10-24 17:36:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take a look
2013-10-24 17:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are neutral
2013-10-24 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have now relieved the "overbought" condition in the STVO's
2013-10-24 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2013-10-24 17:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's nowhere near neutral either
2013-10-24 17:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so based no this we're "allowed" for another day or two of chop before we see a upside resumption
2013-10-24 17:38:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the VTO's are gaining strength here as we expected on Tuesday
2013-10-24 17:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're not "overbought" as yet
2013-10-24 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the Open 10's are "oversold"
2013-10-24 17:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have enough fuel in the tank to make a difference
2013-10-24 17:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.00
2013-10-24 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now close to being highly "oversold" at 1.06
2013-10-24 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we've moved from just north of neutral to minimally "oversold" in two trading days
2013-10-24 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time
2013-10-24 17:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices have consolidated
2013-10-24 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we refer to as "correcting on the fly"
2013-10-24 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it provides a bullish undertone to our analysis
2013-10-24 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.45
2013-10-24 17:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.18
2013-10-24 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and deeply "oversold"
2013-10-24 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so taking this together with the NASDAQ volume MCO and NDX volume MCO
2013-10-24 17:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could say that buying at these levels not only has little downside risk
2013-10-24 17:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you would be buying at wholesale pricing
2013-10-24 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hard to imagine with our being near 13 year recovery highs
2013-10-24 17:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is the imbalance that we're working with
2013-10-24 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2013-10-24 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's NASDAQ TRIN was 1.45
2013-10-24 17:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down from yesterday's 2.28 reading
2013-10-24 17:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime we get a reading above 2.00 in an advancing trend, that is a buy signal
2013-10-24 17:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have all of the willing and unwilling selling the market for whatever the reason might be
2013-10-24 17:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so those holding the QQQ long positions should feel pretty good about that
2013-10-24 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.25
2013-10-24 17:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.19
2013-10-24 17:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-24 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we have a couple of pistons out of sync here
2013-10-24 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the blueprint here says long and strong for now
2013-10-24 17:44:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and let the sellers prove themselves
2013-10-24 17:45:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even if they show up
2013-10-24 17:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're not going to have much in the way of power here
2013-10-24 17:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2013-10-24 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pullbacks are to be used as buy points...at least for the time being
2013-10-24 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS
2013-10-24 17:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...just on sentiment alone, there's no real reason to sell here
2013-10-24 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSX remains on fire
2013-10-24 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BETS is at +60
2013-10-24 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a +65 would be our first all out buy signal in a while
2013-10-24 17:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it settles on Friday
2013-10-24 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-10-24 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: were you able to follow along Larry...do you have DP??
2013-10-24 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the ETF's - one sec
2013-10-24 17:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aerospace is flying high! [smile]
2013-10-24 17:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cyclical issues
2013-10-24 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dividend stocks
2013-10-24 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: transportation stocks
2013-10-24 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many gaps in the gold chart right now
2013-10-24 17:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes me nervous when I see that on any chart
2013-10-24 17:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: home builders are gaining strength
2013-10-24 17:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another clue that rates are likely to move lower from here
2013-10-24 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: home construction as well
2013-10-24 17:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: industrials
2013-10-24 17:53:43 [Message] larz -> Chat: Yes, thx Dave
2013-10-24 17:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: REITS are picking up steam here
2013-10-24 17:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the A/D line on that one over the weekend
2013-10-24 17:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: retail
2013-10-24 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ouch - the semi's got hit yesterday...anyone know the reason why?
2013-10-24 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: telecom
2013-10-24 17:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't look now
2013-10-24 17:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the CBOE is up 7% in 3 weeks
2013-10-24 17:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BIG upside move in the NDAQ just yesterday
2013-10-24 17:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up 17% since the beginning of September
2013-10-24 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so daily volume doesn't seem to be a problem
2013-10-24 17:57:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just the plurality
2013-10-24 17:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow Composite Index closed at new all time highs today
2013-10-24 17:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Airlines continue to fly
2013-10-24 17:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I just don't understand how they are filling those planes with the higher fares
2013-10-24 17:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well
2013-10-24 17:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do know
2013-10-24 17:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because
2013-10-24 17:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have cut back so many flights
2013-10-24 17:58:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that, of course, they're filling up the planes!
2013-10-24 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: broker/dealers look strong
2013-10-24 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch GS over the next couple of days
2013-10-24 17:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...computer disk drives took a tumble this week
2013-10-24 18:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 8% in 3 days
2013-10-24 18:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: defense is strong
2013-10-24 18:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: drugs as well
2013-10-24 18:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about it
2013-10-24 18:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-10-24 18:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this just came from CNBC
2013-10-24 18:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "the stock market is as overbought as it's ever been, and that doesn't really seem to be bothering many people"
2013-10-24 18:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what fundamentalist said this..
2013-10-24 18:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Jeff Cox
2013-10-24 18:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who is Jeff Cox?
2013-10-24 18:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...it's always fun to see CNBC try to act like a technician
2013-10-24 18:04:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2013-10-24 18:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-10-24 18:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm gong to take off
2013-10-24 18:04:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2013-10-24 18:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are shaking on Tuesday
2013-10-24 18:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch