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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,515
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-10-23 16:00:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-10-23 16:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-10-23 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hope that your seat belts had been fastened over the last couple of days...whew!
2014-10-23 16:01:07 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Went long MID at MOC
2014-10-23 16:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eek!
2014-10-23 16:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 16:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that SPX 1960 was resistance...I think we backed off from that level
2014-10-23 16:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just be careful...we're still not out of the woods here
2014-10-23 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML would had been a better choice...just make sure you don't catch yourself thinking that "I'm just early...things will be OK"
2014-10-23 16:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then get hit
2014-10-23 16:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to get stopped out to come back another day...blah blah blah :)
2014-10-23 16:05:09 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I know I know I've been late moving in on the long side had to start somewhere
2014-10-23 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-10-23 16:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...as long as it was a nibble
2014-10-23 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS before we get started
2014-10-23 16:05:42 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: At least I got that right
2014-10-23 16:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be fine
2014-10-23 16:06:40 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good to hear thanks
2014-10-23 16:07:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -30
2014-10-23 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: playing a lot of EMA tag right now
2014-10-23 16:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the good news now is...
2014-10-23 16:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line is beginning to look constructive
2014-10-23 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and back to a "Get Set" buy signal
2014-10-23 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: EMA's are turning up as well
2014-10-23 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means....
2014-10-23 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components should be back above their zero line now
2014-10-23 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see in a moment
2014-10-23 16:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and get started
2014-10-23 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after taking a "pause to refresh" on Wednesday
2014-10-23 16:11:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved higher today
2014-10-23 16:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it didn't quite take out the recent high point on Tuesday
2014-10-23 16:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-10-23 16:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have moved back to a crossover buy signal by the slimmest of margins
2014-10-23 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2014-10-23 16:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the 5% Trend can be construed as completing a simple snapback up to its zero line
2014-10-23 16:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-10-23 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the buyers now need to step up on Friday in order to tip the scales in their favor on how next week is likely to go
2014-10-23 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there is some hesitation in putting more capital to work
2014-10-23 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then it would be likely that we'll see another 2-3 day choppy consolidation period
2014-10-23 16:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MCO begins to unwind from its "overbought" condition
2014-10-23 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-10-23 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it's beginning the long progress of moving back to or toward its zero line
2014-10-23 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the current reading of -685
2014-10-23 16:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any additional bids that we might see for the common stocks that trade on the NYSE will tend to be shallow, without too much conviction, and that any further price advance will likely be built on short positions being covered
2014-10-23 16:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point
2014-10-23 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we do see higher highs in this MCO in the next day or so
2014-10-23 16:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to move much above the prior congestion area we see on the daily NYA chart at the 10,600 level
2014-10-23 16:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2014-10-23 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have rallied 600 points from the lows of last Wednesday
2014-10-23 16:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an extended rest early next week wouldn't be too far fetched either
2014-10-23 16:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-10-23 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved higher today
2014-10-23 16:18:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the NYSE CO breadth MCO
2014-10-23 16:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain below the highs of Tuesday
2014-10-23 16:18:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite MCO components
2014-10-23 16:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just as we figured earlier
2014-10-23 16:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the 10% and 5% Trends are now back above their zero line
2014-10-23 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2014-10-23 16:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what these MCO components represent
2014-10-23 16:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just by looking at them you will know which direction the 19 day and 39 day EMA's that are measuring that specific A/D or U/D cumulative line are moving
2014-10-23 16:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, is important information if you don't have available the graph of that particular cumulative line
2014-10-23 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here, for example, if both the 10% and 5% are moving higher
2014-10-23 16:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way that can happen is....
2014-10-23 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2014-10-23 16:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A/D line is also moving higher
2014-10-23 16:21:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important that we see internal confirmation between the MCO and it's components
2014-10-23 16:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if, for example, the 5% Trend is below its zero line
2014-10-23 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reflecting that the 39 day EMA is moving lower
2014-10-23 16:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 10% is above its zero line
2014-10-23 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: representing that the shorter term 19 day EMA is moving higher
2014-10-23 16:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until there is a unanimous decision by both EMA's as to direction
2014-10-23 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can only chop sideways
2014-10-23 16:23:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I see it now making more sense
2014-10-23 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, again, is important information as to knowing the "Trend" in force
2014-10-23 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like I told you in the beginning
2014-10-23 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes time to absorb all of this
2014-10-23 16:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once you get a handle on it
2014-10-23 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your entry's and exits have a sense of purpose behind them
2014-10-23 16:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we want is to be on the right side of the trade
2014-10-23 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no guessing
2014-10-23 16:25:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 16:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we allow the flow of capital dictate to us which IS the right side
2014-10-23 16:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we are emotional creatures
2014-10-23 16:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we like to lead off at times
2014-10-23 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is always time
2014-10-23 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that you enter and exit on YOUR terms
2014-10-23 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the markets
2014-10-23 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not what someone says in a newsletter
2014-10-23 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or on TV or radio
2014-10-23 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and especially not from what you read on a message board
2014-10-23 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have the right tools
2014-10-23 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you set your own guidelines
2014-10-23 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that
2014-10-23 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will be consistent
2014-10-23 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may not be right all the time
2014-10-23 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...better said
2014-10-23 16:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may not be positioned in a timely fashion
2014-10-23 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's OK too
2014-10-23 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as you can say to yourself..."it didn't work this time...let's regroup"
2014-10-23 16:28:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and wait for more information
2014-10-23 16:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market talks very eloquently
2014-10-23 16:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is our job to listen to what it says, and then follow its lead
2014-10-23 16:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over the last month
2014-10-23 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen two really good examples of this
2014-10-23 16:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the world was seemingly "falling apart"
2014-10-23 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our stand aside signal on 9/19
2014-10-23 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got our cover signal on 10/15
2014-10-23 16:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that we're going to hit a change in the trend that exactly every time
2014-10-23 16:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds were in our favor
2014-10-23 16:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you act
2014-10-23 16:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instead of "reacting"
2014-10-23 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're going to be a technician
2014-10-23 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MUST believe in your indicators
2014-10-23 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from that
2014-10-23 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you MUST follow through when they give you something to work with
2014-10-23 16:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise
2014-10-23 16:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll be just like the other 99% of traders out there who trade by the seat of their pants
2014-10-23 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...moving on
2014-10-23 16:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM now has a reading of -420
2014-10-23 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here too we have quite a bit still yet to do before we'll see balance between buyers and sellers on an intermediate term basis (6-12 weeks)
2014-10-23 16:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while we're on the subject of what these indicators represent to us
2014-10-23 16:33:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the Components tell you the direction of the EMA's
2014-10-23 16:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM tells you when these same EMA's cross each other
2014-10-23 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM is below the zero line
2014-10-23 16:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA is below the 39 day EMA
2014-10-23 16:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the MCSUM is above the zero line
2014-10-23 16:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then these same two EMA's are in a bullish configuration where the short term EMA is above the intermediate term EMA
2014-10-23 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that we don't know though in all this is where the cumulative line is in relation to its 1% Trend which is the 200 day EMA
2014-10-23 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is also important information
2014-10-23 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if the MCSUM is above the zero line
2014-10-23 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: saying that the 19 day EMA is above the 39 day EMA
2014-10-23 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it probably makes a difference then where this is taking place...are these EMA's above or below the 200 day EMA?
2014-10-23 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being above the 1% Trend tells us that the longer term trend of the market is higher
2014-10-23 16:36:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being below the 1% Trend tells us that the longer term trend of the market is lower
2014-10-23 16:36:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO?
2014-10-23 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it measures the SPEED in which these same EMA's, the 19 day and the 39 day, are either moving toward or away from each other
2014-10-23 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this knowledge then
2014-10-23 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can ballpark the time it will take for them to either cross over
2014-10-23 16:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...when they are likely to pause
2014-10-23 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with all this information
2014-10-23 16:38:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can then determine not only the underlying health of the price action
2014-10-23 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also the approximate time it will take to reach a specific goal
2014-10-23 16:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: powerful stuff
2014-10-23 16:39:27 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I'll say thank you again
2014-10-23 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions before I move on?
2014-10-23 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a real eye opener once you see it in action
2014-10-23 16:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one in here is a so called guru
2014-10-23 16:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're doing is watching the direction and velocity in which money is either moving in or out of the market
2014-10-23 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then taking this knowledge and coming up with a reasonable outcome
2014-10-23 16:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no talk of crashes or melt ups
2014-10-23 16:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just have to have a "reasonable expectation"
2014-10-23 16:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a sprint
2014-10-23 16:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one is here to fluff their plumage
2014-10-23 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many who thrive on being right
2014-10-23 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here...it's better to let the market tell us what it can do
2014-10-23 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then attempt to see, but other technical means, what would be a reasonable outcome of such information
2014-10-23 16:43:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...sorry...coming off the soap box now :)
2014-10-23 16:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking still at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2014-10-23 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see that not only do we remain below the zero line
2014-10-23 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: telling us that the sellers have control of the action
2014-10-23 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we remain below a series of declining, divergent tops as well
2014-10-23 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we see the MCSUM move above its zero line
2014-10-23 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then break above this declining trend of resistance
2014-10-23 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can play the long side since the MCSUM is rising
2014-10-23 16:44:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can't go all in
2014-10-23 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to have a plan and stick to it
2014-10-23 16:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2014-10-23 16:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading and investing is a business
2014-10-23 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's YOUR business
2014-10-23 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you keep making mistakes
2014-10-23 16:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're going to go "out of business"
2014-10-23 16:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no one wants that
2014-10-23 16:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-10-23 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that it also bounced higher today
2014-10-23 16:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while looking at the NASDAQ MCO components
2014-10-23 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the NASDAQ 10% Trend did indeed snapback to its zero line on Wednesday
2014-10-23 16:46:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then bounced off this same line today
2014-10-23 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though
2014-10-23 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% still below its zero line
2014-10-23 16:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we get follow through quickly here
2014-10-23 16:47:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see a near term "rally failure" develop
2014-10-23 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where a price top would be seen
2014-10-23 16:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike Tuesday's expectation of maybe a one day rest
2014-10-23 16:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will get 2 or 3 days of backing and filling starting as soon as Friday
2014-10-23 16:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would allow this MCO to snapback to its zero line
2014-10-23 16:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to go neutral...have balance between buyers and sellers
2014-10-23 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then attempt a new plan
2014-10-23 16:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price action
2014-10-23 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have now met our minimal upside price target area today
2014-10-23 16:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and though we had a mid range close
2014-10-23 16:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising to see a little more follow through on the current momentum generated by this current reflex
2014-10-23 16:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before seeing this expectation of a price ceiling
2014-10-23 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2014-10-23 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thinking back to our previous discussion
2014-10-23 16:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the MCO, the MCO components, and the MCSUM
2014-10-23 16:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a pretty good feel on what the NASDAQ marketplace is able to do right now
2014-10-23 16:51:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's not much more than what we have right currently
2014-10-23 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-10-23 16:52:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's bounce did take out Tuesday's high point
2014-10-23 16:52:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is good news for the top 100 stocks
2014-10-23 16:52:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just to pontificate, this move up is a bit "gappy" and doesn't look structurally corrective to me-"so far"
2014-10-23 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would logically happen more with this index than the broader based NASDAQ Composite because of the current positions of the MCO components and the MCSUM and it's zero line
2014-10-23 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Lew...it's not congested
2014-10-23 16:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's important
2014-10-23 16:54:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because if the buyers were being tepid here
2014-10-23 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this reflex rally would lead to another swoon very quickly once any of the vapors still left over were finally extinguished
2014-10-23 16:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we do have some nice individual postings to the upside
2014-10-23 16:55:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's constructive
2014-10-23 16:55:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the ratio adjusted ripped through that first bit of gap resistance like butter, as well
2014-10-23 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's far from being something in which you can act on as a trader
2014-10-23 16:55:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2014-10-23 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have one or two more to go through
2014-10-23 16:56:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: just hearing tiny whispers-you know...
2014-10-23 16:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I kinda of likened Tuesday to a 20 megaton bomb :)
2014-10-23 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2014-10-23 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...
2014-10-23 16:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one would expect a sudden shift after such a sell off
2014-10-23 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be reasonable
2014-10-23 16:57:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2014-10-23 16:57:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may be emotionally exciting to think about
2014-10-23 16:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as a technician
2014-10-23 16:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have to build enough of a foundational platform before prices can move against the bear market default
2014-10-23 16:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my favorite analogy being
2014-10-23 16:57:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you try to climb a 2 story building on a ladder
2014-10-23 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and one or both of the footings are in soft dirt
2014-10-23 16:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll likely make it up partially
2014-10-23 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then you'll start to topple over because you don't the necessary foundation to keep your weight from shifting
2014-10-23 16:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having one foot on concrete and the other in this same dirt would get you higher
2014-10-23 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you know what will happen eventually...you'll eventually topple over
2014-10-23 16:59:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: strong breadth was firm today too, didn't waver much, and WOW, just noticed how much the NDX took back
2014-10-23 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...that reminds me
2014-10-23 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the ZBT
2014-10-23 16:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-10-23 17:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stall
2014-10-23 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see...you have to allow the market work its magic
2014-10-23 17:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now it's day 8
2014-10-23 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks easy to do to generate a Zweig Breadth Thrust
2014-10-23 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not
2014-10-23 17:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: disappointing, I know
2014-10-23 17:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what isn't in this line of work? :)
2014-10-23 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it keeps us coming back...that's for sure
2014-10-23 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...so with this higher high in the NDX breadth MCO
2014-10-23 17:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action can now challenge its recovery highs on this current bounce
2014-10-23 17:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more to the point
2014-10-23 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely now that the price action will be able to close above 4050 level and stay there
2014-10-23 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a divergent top as well on the SPX breadth MCO
2014-10-23 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the components remain on a buy signal
2014-10-23 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any pullback here would likely to find support at the zero lines
2014-10-23 17:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good visualization here would be...
2014-10-23 17:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX A/D line will move lower to test the 19 day EMA
2014-10-23 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe the 39 day EMA as well
2014-10-23 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this point
2014-10-23 17:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would likely find support because of the amount of fuel that came in earlier in the week
2014-10-23 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also got a higher high in the OEX breadth MCO as well
2014-10-23 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so since the broader market did not move to higher high
2014-10-23 17:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the large caps did
2014-10-23 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then tells us that it's likely that we'll see higher price highs over the next couple of days in these same large cap indices
2014-10-23 17:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the broader market will lag
2014-10-23 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless, of course, we see money shift again and support the broader market
2014-10-23 17:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for tomorrow
2014-10-23 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is all the market is able to do with the information we have at this time
2014-10-23 17:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is part of your plan
2014-10-23 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the Dow breadth MCO did indeed snapback to its zero line like we talked about on Tuesday
2014-10-23 17:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it bounced off this line today showing that money is supporting the buy side of the trade
2014-10-23 17:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this higher high in the Dow breadth MCO
2014-10-23 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that there was more money supporting prices today than it was on Tuesday
2014-10-23 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep this stuff simple
2014-10-23 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all supply and demand
2014-10-23 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no voodoo here
2014-10-23 17:08:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're watching the pulse of money
2014-10-23 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it's moving
2014-10-23 17:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by what rate its moving
2014-10-23 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: rate = support
2014-10-23 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also bounced today
2014-10-23 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remains highly "overbought" at this juncture
2014-10-23 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-10-23 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have both the 19 day and 39 day EMA's trending higher
2014-10-23 17:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that the MID A/D line is moving higher
2014-10-23 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check how close it is to its all time highs...one moment
2014-10-23 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's quite a ways away
2014-10-23 17:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-10-23 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID A/D line pulled back to its 39 day EMA on Wednesday
2014-10-23 17:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and bounced off this EMA today and moved to new highs
2014-10-23 17:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that we're going to see a continuation of money moving back into this basket of stocks
2014-10-23 17:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the likely result of getting the 19 day EMA to cross back above this slower moving 39 day EMA
2014-10-23 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will happen when....?
2014-10-23 17:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anybody?
2014-10-23 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, when the MCSUM moves back above its zero line
2014-10-23 17:12:34 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Zero line
2014-10-23 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there you go
2014-10-23 17:12:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: McSum
2014-10-23 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM at -491
2014-10-23 17:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you KNOW that there is still quite a bit of distance still yet to be traveled before something like this can actually takes place
2014-10-23 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you take your time
2014-10-23 17:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and monitor the improvements as things move along
2014-10-23 17:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probability and outcome
2014-10-23 17:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all this is
2014-10-23 17:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-10-23 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also failed to move to higher highs
2014-10-23 17:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about last Thursday
2014-10-23 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the structure of this MCO from its bottom continues to show a series of bottom above bottoms
2014-10-23 17:14:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then tells us that the buyers have control of the action short term (4-6 weeks)
2014-10-23 17:15:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though with the SML breadth MCSUM still a ways from seeing its zero line
2014-10-23 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are not likely to just zoom higher from here
2014-10-23 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCO is one side of the zero line
2014-10-23 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCSUM is on the other
2014-10-23 17:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that prices can do is....
2014-10-23 17:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chop
2014-10-23 17:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the high extremes we're seeing in the MCO's
2014-10-23 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this chop will likely be volatile in its content
2014-10-23 17:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until there is we see this oscillator move in and around its zero line
2014-10-23 17:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like a watching a earthquake on a seismograph
2014-10-23 17:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will move violently when there is the greatest amount of energy being applied
2014-10-23 17:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will eventually calm down once anything that was thrown out of place resets itself and settles
2014-10-23 17:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-10-23 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see by the distance between the individual postings in the SML breadth MCSUM that there is a ton of money moving back into this basket of stocks
2014-10-23 17:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this continues
2014-10-23 17:19:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices will continue to firm
2014-10-23 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any bids that are withdrawn will tend to be for a short duration
2014-10-23 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe hours
2014-10-23 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: case in point
2014-10-23 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday
2014-10-23 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AFTER the initial rally
2014-10-23 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of folks got confused by the close on Wednesday
2014-10-23 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we should had seen downside follow through today
2014-10-23 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing the underlying strength in which money was moving into the market
2014-10-23 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the likelihood of seeing a down open was pretty low
2014-10-23 17:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see this a lot on CNBC, for example
2014-10-23 17:21:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2014-10-23 17:22:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have no idea what they're doing anyway
2014-10-23 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a lot of their "opinions" and "interviews" are what the producers whisper in their ear pieces
2014-10-23 17:23:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: A POOR replacement of FNN...
2014-10-23 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhh...the good old days
2014-10-23 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2014-10-23 17:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FNN was a poor replacement for KWHY
2014-10-23 17:24:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Bollinger for lunch-priceless
2014-10-23 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who don't know what we're talking about
2014-10-23 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the 1970's in Los Angeles
2014-10-23 17:24:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a business channel, KWHY
2014-10-23 17:25:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the great thing about KWHY is that all of the big names in modern technical analysis had 15 minute shows and interviews on what they did and what they thought about the markets
2014-10-23 17:26:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of which...modern TA had it's renaissance in Los Angeles
2014-10-23 17:26:07 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: What a learning curve that must have been
2014-10-23 17:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was
2014-10-23 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Sherman McClellan
2014-10-23 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Peter Eliades
2014-10-23 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Peter Harlan
2014-10-23 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had these super stars
2014-10-23 17:27:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oh yea
2014-10-23 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you just were in awe in what they were sharing with the public
2014-10-23 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for, or course, shameless promotions since many were brokers
2014-10-23 17:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Richard Ney...Larry Katz
2014-10-23 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just an amazing amount of power houses
2014-10-23 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-10-23 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the mid 80's
2014-10-23 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a new kid in town, FNN
2014-10-23 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Financial News Network
2014-10-23 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...rarely did anyone watch this channel
2014-10-23 17:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but over time people like John Bollinger
2014-10-23 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and others began to receive larger and larger exposure
2014-10-23 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and slowly FNN made it's mark
2014-10-23 17:29:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-10-23 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you had Bill Griffith as the main anchor
2014-10-23 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gee...who else?
2014-10-23 17:29:43 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: He's still around
2014-10-23 17:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...long story short
2014-10-23 17:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FNN was eventually bought by GE
2014-10-23 17:30:02 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Oh NO
2014-10-23 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and FNN eventually became...
2014-10-23 17:30:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CNBC
2014-10-23 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's how it all started
2014-10-23 17:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the day
2014-10-23 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Dow was up or down 10 points that was a BIG day!
2014-10-23 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume?
2014-10-23 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...25 million was huge!
2014-10-23 17:31:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure
2014-10-23 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots have changed since then
2014-10-23 17:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Trade Levels came out of KWHY
2014-10-23 17:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Investors Business Daily was a creation by Bill O'Neill who used to be on KWHY
2014-10-23 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: LA was where it was at in the 60's and 70's for TA
2014-10-23 17:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was fortunate to be there
2014-10-23 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if I remember correctly
2014-10-23 17:32:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nice
2014-10-23 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: KWHY was also simulcast into the Chicago market in those days
2014-10-23 17:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to this day
2014-10-23 17:32:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I miss the most
2014-10-23 17:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that they used "clacker board" to change the numbers
2014-10-23 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the tape...ran across the screen at the bottom...a first for TV
2014-10-23 17:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...those were the days
2014-10-23 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on...I'll get to everything
2014-10-23 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCO also showed a lower high today
2014-10-23 17:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 5% component now completing a zero line snapback
2014-10-23 17:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that we'll have another day or two of rest coming before we see another attempt to move higher
2014-10-23 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-23 17:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like on Tuesday
2014-10-23 17:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ball remains in the bull's court
2014-10-23 17:35:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they still have quite a bit still yet to do before prices can actually trend higher
2014-10-23 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...
2014-10-23 17:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in a period of construction
2014-10-23 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of which the keystone has been laid
2014-10-23 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the re-bar is being put into place
2014-10-23 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next we get the concrete
2014-10-23 17:36:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully the "county" will approve the foundation and we can begin to build :)
2014-10-23 17:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2014-10-23 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the patient here is still not feeling very well
2014-10-23 17:37:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the worse part of the illness has passed
2014-10-23 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have recovered back before the illness took its toll on the price chart
2014-10-23 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like nothing happened :)
2014-10-23 17:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors, and we see that we had a nice breadth thrust as well with the XLY breadth MCO
2014-10-23 17:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but notice that there is very little texture here on the swing
2014-10-23 17:39:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then tell us that though the buyers have control
2014-10-23 17:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not that strong
2014-10-23 17:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is where you can assume that most of this same buying is that of short covering
2014-10-23 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money that isn't new and fresh...money that is being "laundered"
2014-10-23 17:40:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: amzn may hit that tomorrow..
2014-10-23 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how were the earnings?
2014-10-23 17:41:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not sure, but it got hit hard
2014-10-23 17:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not worried with them
2014-10-23 17:41:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have rolled out so much product of late
2014-10-23 17:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that losses are to be expected
2014-10-23 17:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2014-10-23 17:41:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as I shared over the last couple of weeks
2014-10-23 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the holiday season is not likely to be a good one for brick and mortar retail
2014-10-23 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but something like AMZN should do OK...
2014-10-23 17:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no rent to pay
2014-10-23 17:42:56 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the daily on AMZN doesn't look fresh to me, the weekly looks worse
2014-10-23 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so their overhead is far better
2014-10-23 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look - one sec
2014-10-23 17:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hasn't had a good year, has it?
2014-10-23 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have puts?
2014-10-23 17:44:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: one "longshot" for tomorrow is all
2014-10-23 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have an open position now?
2014-10-23 17:44:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 50 bucks
2014-10-23 17:44:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2014-10-23 17:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AMZN is down 33 after hours
2014-10-23 17:44:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2014-10-23 17:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 17:44:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 10%
2014-10-23 17:45:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SELL!
2014-10-23 17:45:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 17:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can use those proceeds for your park on the island
2014-10-23 17:45:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2014-10-23 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-10-23 17:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP gives us a good example of how prices tend to fare based on underlying money flow
2014-10-23 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where in the last sector the XLY breadth MCSUM is around the -500 level
2014-10-23 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are not able to be as buoyant at their last high point
2014-10-23 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the XLP breadth MCSUM above its zero line
2014-10-23 17:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can maintain this same buoyancy
2014-10-23 17:47:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...with that said
2014-10-23 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to be on guard here for a possible MCSUM Summation Failure pattern in the XLP
2014-10-23 17:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where any failure to move back above the +250 level
2014-10-23 17:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: followed by a move back down and through the zero line would cause a "crash like" effect in prices as control moves from the buy side to the sell side
2014-10-23 17:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since those who invest in staples are pretty conservative folks
2014-10-23 17:49:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they would be characterized as those who be called the UNwilling sellers on any further pullback in prices
2014-10-23 17:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is something to watch for
2014-10-23 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE has finally shown enough of short covering to where prices have stabilized
2014-10-23 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we look at the components here
2014-10-23 17:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that both remain below their zero line
2014-10-23 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this index remains "heavy" and vulnerable to an ambush
2014-10-23 17:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically...a text book reflex rally
2014-10-23 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's about to run out of steam unless the "cavalry" shows up in a hurry
2014-10-23 17:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough to go long
2014-10-23 17:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may be a near term play on the short side
2014-10-23 17:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2014-10-23 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it gets into pattern resistance at the $88 level
2014-10-23 17:52:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no internal improvement
2014-10-23 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be my guest
2014-10-23 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-10-23 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that although the MCSUM on the XLE has turned up from its deeply "oversold" condition
2014-10-23 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that doesn't mean that prices are finished moving lower
2014-10-23 17:53:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get a longer term chart for a price target
2014-10-23 17:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $72?
2014-10-23 17:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...there's a whole lot of potential downside there
2014-10-23 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just keep it on your radar screen for now
2014-10-23 17:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM has now snapped back to its zero line
2014-10-23 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the buyers really need to step up here
2014-10-23 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or this sector is likely to lead to the downside on any short term pullback
2014-10-23 17:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why? you may ask?
2014-10-23 17:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because we haven't been able to take out the early September high point in the XLF breadth MCO with this reflex
2014-10-23 17:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the price pattern is sloppy
2014-10-23 17:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have an island reversal
2014-10-23 17:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a breakaway gap working here
2014-10-23 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless there's immediate follow through
2014-10-23 17:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break-a-way will be filled
2014-10-23 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: leaving only the island formation as a support area
2014-10-23 17:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action in the XLV remains quite strong here in spite of the current readings in the XLV breadth MCSUM (-270)
2014-10-23 17:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a defensive play
2014-10-23 17:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be because of Open Enrollment in ACA
2014-10-23 17:59:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we see the XLV breadth MCSUM move above its zero line
2014-10-23 18:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's likely that we won't be able to see much more above the recent highs
2014-10-23 18:00:21 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: futures sharply down
2014-10-23 18:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI data is looking better
2014-10-23 18:00:25 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Hi Dave
2014-10-23 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprising
2014-10-23 18:00:30 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 18:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good evening Princely
2014-10-23 18:00:59 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: What happened..some news looks like...
2014-10-23 18:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have you been having fun playing the swings?
2014-10-23 18:01:14 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Yes a lot
2014-10-23 18:01:19 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: last few days
2014-10-23 18:01:29 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: have been a traders dream
2014-10-23 18:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair value on the Dow is -40
2014-10-23 18:01:45 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Both Gold and ES
2014-10-23 18:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the Dow down -67
2014-10-23 18:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow is only down 27
2014-10-23 18:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a rumor though toward the close
2014-10-23 18:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they have an Ebola case in New York City
2014-10-23 18:02:31 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Yes
2014-10-23 18:02:44 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Must be some new news developing
2014-10-23 18:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since this was being used for the market to sell off earlier this month
2014-10-23 18:02:49 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: on that same thing
2014-10-23 18:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any new information on the same subject is likely to cause the same reaction
2014-10-23 18:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me
2014-10-23 18:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I STRONGLY suggest to everyone that they do not update their Java to version 8
2014-10-23 18:05:03 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I agree
2014-10-23 18:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there seems to be too many problems accessing sites that support this platform besides this one
2014-10-23 18:05:11 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: I second that!
2014-10-23 18:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had a run in this past weekend
2014-10-23 18:05:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Where do you guys get both future and fair values after hours?
2014-10-23 18:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they don't allow you to set your own security settings
2014-10-23 18:05:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Mike...type in CNBC
2014-10-23 18:06:41 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I almost got shaken out of my gold shorts today
2014-10-23 18:06:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try this: www.CNBC.com/id/17689937
2014-10-23 18:06:47 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: on the Ebola news
2014-10-23 18:06:54 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I mean miners
2014-10-23 18:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got shaken out on Tuesday
2014-10-23 18:06:59 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: they just took off
2014-10-23 18:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moved back in on Wednesday
2014-10-23 18:07:04 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: :)
2014-10-23 18:07:07 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: I did too
2014-10-23 18:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was just taking too long
2014-10-23 18:07:11 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: entered back
2014-10-23 18:07:14 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: same as you
2014-10-23 18:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then...whoosh...the party started
2014-10-23 18:07:20 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: yep
2014-10-23 18:07:37 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Are you playing the miners?
2014-10-23 18:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then the dollar dumped late in the day today
2014-10-23 18:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2014-10-23 18:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's finish up
2014-10-23 18:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...the XLB breadth MCO looks like it got to a +130
2014-10-23 18:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but nothing textural keeping it together
2014-10-23 18:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but
2014-10-23 18:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be a whisper that after any further pullback here in the metals might be the last one
2014-10-23 18:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLK is looking firm here
2014-10-23 18:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLK breadth MCSUM now back to its zero line
2014-10-23 18:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side is about to take control
2014-10-23 18:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: favoring a bullish resolution here is the earlier data from the NDX
2014-10-23 18:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch this one for a challenge of its previous highs
2014-10-23 18:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and new all time price highs now in the XLU
2014-10-23 18:13:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is still looking like the one to go to if you have to remain long here
2014-10-23 18:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-10-23 18:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2014-10-23 18:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and connecting the tops from May and September in the XLU breadth MCSUM
2014-10-23 18:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we broke above this resistance today
2014-10-23 18:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: confirming the new all time price highs
2014-10-23 18:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so strong buy there
2014-10-23 18:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-10-23 18:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we continue to pick through the rubble from last weeks capitulation
2014-10-23 18:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the defensive sectors still holding together nicely
2014-10-23 18:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Utilities sector leading to the upside
2014-10-23 18:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-10-23 18:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow Jones Utilities is also at new all time highs now
2014-10-23 18:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further strength in the Dow Industrials and Transports would put the Dow Theory folks on cruise control
2014-10-23 18:16:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that...
2014-10-23 18:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has never been the beginning of a bear market with the Utilities moving to higher highs and leading the Industrials and Transports
2014-10-23 18:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shhh...we'll keep this our secret ;)
2014-10-23 18:17:24 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: good to know
2014-10-23 18:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now close to "overbought"
2014-10-23 18:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are close to our expected snapback to their zero lines
2014-10-23 18:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting close to exhaustion now for the reflex rally
2014-10-23 18:18:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .95
2014-10-23 18:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 still "oversold" at 1.13
2014-10-23 18:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will keep prices from coming apart short term
2014-10-23 18:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .49
2014-10-23 18:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06
2014-10-23 18:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're working off that 2.60 TRINQ from the 13th
2014-10-23 18:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .61
2014-10-23 18:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2014-10-23 18:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-10-23 18:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the reflex rally is about to end
2014-10-23 18:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's been enough energy moving back into the market where any pause will tend to be absorbed on a short term basis
2014-10-23 18:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said
2014-10-23 18:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be surprising to see a little more of a move to the upside first before we actually see this exhaustion take place
2014-10-23 18:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who played the bounce
2014-10-23 18:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep your stops close at this stage
2014-10-23 18:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we'll remain choppy and highly volatile for a bit more time
2014-10-23 18:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-10-23 18:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see this same kind of action for the majority of next week
2014-10-23 18:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those on the sidelines
2014-10-23 18:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a great time to follow through on your due diligence
2014-10-23 18:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and begin the process of making a list of likely long candidates
2014-10-23 18:23:37 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: FOMC next Wednesday at 2:00 ET
2014-10-23 18:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pick and choose your entry's
2014-10-23 18:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: cool
2014-10-23 18:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will give the market a good excuse
2014-10-23 18:23:59 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: yep
2014-10-23 18:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to do whatever it's likely to do! :)
2014-10-23 18:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for us
2014-10-23 18:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that it will remain choppy for a bit more time
2014-10-23 18:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that any news event is likely to be a driver
2014-10-23 18:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important stuff is the A/D charts this weekend
2014-10-23 18:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they're making higher highs
2014-10-23 18:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let the market go about its business of shaking the tree of the weak hands
2014-10-23 18:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: believe me
2014-10-23 18:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with such a deep retracement
2014-10-23 18:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any hard down move over the next week or so will be accompanied by high degree of negative sentiment
2014-10-23 18:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "here we go"
2014-10-23 18:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "the crash is beginning"
2014-10-23 18:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "the top is in"
2014-10-23 18:26:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "I told you so"
2014-10-23 18:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more we get of this
2014-10-23 18:26:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the odds that a very important bottom is being "hammered" out
2014-10-23 18:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the work is done...
2014-10-23 18:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can move on our merry way to new highs
2014-10-23 18:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-10-23 18:27:25 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you again Fib
2014-10-23 18:27:31 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Much to absorb
2014-10-23 18:28:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Some of the best since I've been around
2014-10-23 18:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you
2014-10-23 18:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2014-10-23 18:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is being very accommodative lately
2014-10-23 18:28:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sharing a lot of information
2014-10-23 18:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that makes for good reading and analysis
2014-10-23 18:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I'm going to go home and have some dinner
2014-10-23 18:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-10-23 18:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-10-23 18:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-10-23 18:29:49 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good night all and thanks for sharing

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