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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-10-23 19:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-10-23 19:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-10-23 19:01:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that good, eh?
2008-10-23 19:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so....what shall we talk about today?
2008-10-23 19:03:15 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How about stock market
2008-10-23 19:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: naw...too boring
2008-10-23 19:03:48 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Ok, Sarah
2008-10-23 19:03:49 [Message] locus -> Main Room: hmm looks like w1 out of triangle today
2008-10-23 19:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more like yesterday
2008-10-23 19:04:08 [Message] locus -> Main Room: with a wicked w2 up
2008-10-23 19:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get the updated chart of the hourly
2008-10-23 19:04:49 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, that triangle good to talk about
2008-10-23 19:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://tinyurl.com/6dt43m
2008-10-23 19:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you think wave 2 up locus?
2008-10-23 19:05:30 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-23 19:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where's {e}?
2008-10-23 19:05:49 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yesterday low was {d}
2008-10-23 19:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this morning was {e}?
2008-10-23 19:06:13 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes abc undershoot
2008-10-23 19:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whew...after over extended on the Fibonacci calculations for each preceding wave?
2008-10-23 19:06:44 [Message] locus -> Main Room: 874 on es was .618 * b
2008-10-23 19:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hmmmm...
2008-10-23 19:07:07 [Message] locus -> Main Room: low was 872.5
2008-10-23 19:07:21 [Message] locus -> Main Room: gives descending triangle
2008-10-23 19:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: kind of pushing it...but who really knows
2008-10-23 19:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all I know is that the symmetrical triangle was busted yesterday
2008-10-23 19:08:14 [Message] locus -> Main Room: well need 2 waves to measure .618 of some previous
2008-10-23 19:08:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we need 2 from here?
2008-10-23 19:09:01 [Message] locus -> Main Room: wave c little beyond .618 of of b and d calc i just gave
2008-10-23 19:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my problem is that we took out the {b} wave low
2008-10-23 19:09:23 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes with w1 down today
2008-10-23 19:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: understood
2008-10-23 19:09:45 [Message] locus -> Main Room: for this count must stay under today high
2008-10-23 19:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I've been working with the cash SPX
2008-10-23 19:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the snapback high of this morning?
2008-10-23 19:10:10 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-23 19:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...maybe a descending wedge - it's one idea I haven't considered
2008-10-23 19:10:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Maybe a morph from triangle to wedge
2008-10-23 19:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...I'm kind of lost on the count because of yesterdays close
2008-10-23 19:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, the market continues heavy
2008-10-23 19:11:19 [Message] locus -> Main Room: anyways things just look impulsive to the downside
2008-10-23 19:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, that's what it looked like to me at 15:00 yesterday
2008-10-23 19:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market must be smelling something big
2008-10-23 19:13:46 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: fib, what do u think of these counts...
2008-10-23 19:13:54 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3013/2968208338_a4f32b2820_o.png
2008-10-23 19:14:00 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3236/2968208366_86f9e5ff74_o.png
2008-10-23 19:14:06 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3059/2967361837_7a4081ffe6_o.png
2008-10-23 19:15:18 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: spy, qqqq & iwm charts respectively...
2008-10-23 19:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can't see them tahiti...will have to look in the morning
2008-10-23 19:16:45 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: okay, thanks!
2008-10-23 19:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know why as an ADMINISTER that my link capabilities are nil
2008-10-23 19:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can you or someone give me an idea?
2008-10-23 19:19:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Sort of a descending right triangle look to it - flat bottom
2008-10-23 19:19:42 [Message] locus -> Main Room: they show wedges with todays low as d
2008-10-23 19:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the daily count in which I posted 2 weeks ago - http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p07046171338&a=153146721&r=6270
2008-10-23 19:19:51 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: declining top
2008-10-23 19:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a descending right angle triangle?
2008-10-23 19:20:17 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: what is the histogram in your chart?
2008-10-23 19:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: simple Hist MACD - default
2008-10-23 19:20:33 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: TY
2008-10-23 19:21:10 [Message] locus -> Main Room: no wedges
2008-10-23 19:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hey locus
2008-10-23 19:21:19 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-23 19:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe you might be right after all...a flat?
2008-10-23 19:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just finished "B"?
2008-10-23 19:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-23 19:22:03 [Message] locus -> Main Room: oh scary
2008-10-23 19:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see it?
2008-10-23 19:22:12 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-23 19:22:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no,
2008-10-23 19:22:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-23 19:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and boy would that fit into previous crashes as far as time taken to consolidate after a crash, no less, lead us right us into the election
2008-10-23 19:23:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Then what? more crash?
2008-10-23 19:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM...on the daily chart
2008-10-23 19:23:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: yes ok
2008-10-23 19:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the rally we had on 10/13 would be wave {a} - the three step decline finished today would be wave {b}- then {c} up to around the level of where the 10/14 rally stalled
2008-10-23 19:24:12 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes but b of b pretty short
2008-10-23 19:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I bet if we measured it...it would be fine
2008-10-23 19:24:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: so, you're ignoring the daily tails?
2008-10-23 19:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm only looking this pattern in line form which cleans up the intraday garbage
2008-10-23 19:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the hourly
2008-10-23 19:26:16 [Message] locus -> Main Room: wave b of (b) is .62 ish the length of a of (b)
2008-10-23 19:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: see? how about that?
2008-10-23 19:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since everyone was looking for a triangle - viola! the market changed course
2008-10-23 19:27:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: oh my god, dave, EVERYONE was calling the triangle
2008-10-23 19:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...everyone was
2008-10-23 19:27:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: even Art Cashin mentioned Elliott wave today on CNBC
2008-10-23 19:27:24 [Message] locus -> Main Room: till todays high are taken out - still like triangle best
2008-10-23 19:27:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: got a spam technical analysis email on symmetrical triangles
2008-10-23 19:27:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-23 19:29:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, so you think c will equal a?
2008-10-23 19:29:14 [Message] locus -> Main Room: hmm daily close only has that look
2008-10-23 19:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: otherwise, I am hard pressed on why we didn't see an {e} wave today
2008-10-23 19:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in a simple flat...wave {b} would test the impulsive lows
2008-10-23 19:29:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: why not (d) today of descending triangle and now on our way to the downtrend line of e of a descending triangle
2008-10-23 19:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while wave {c} would move all the way back up to the highs of wave {a}
2008-10-23 19:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because we broke support Dave
2008-10-23 19:30:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: depends on the time frame, no?
2008-10-23 19:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we broke it both on trendline analysis, and we broke below wave {b}
2008-10-23 19:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope - hourly or daily, bring up both, 1 ma, and you will see
2008-10-23 19:31:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, so this c up goes to closing high of a? or intraday high?
2008-10-23 19:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now THAT would keep traders on their toes
2008-10-23 19:31:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 45 pt difference
2008-10-23 19:31:39 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: so {d} cannot exceed {b}? pardon my ignorance
2008-10-23 19:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would try to be consistent within higher volatility periods - close only, 1 ma
2008-10-23 19:31:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope, and that's the problem
2008-10-23 19:32:01 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok so 1000 or so
2008-10-23 19:32:06 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wow that's a rally
2008-10-23 19:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...it's a symmetrical triangle - bottom above a bottom...top beneath a top
2008-10-23 19:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-23 19:32:27 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: okay
2008-10-23 19:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since many believe that we had a retest today, and it was "successful"...
2008-10-23 19:32:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, why then is it not symmetrical?...
2008-10-23 19:32:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what if it wasn't a symm, i dont understand why a descending triangle wouldn't fit, triple bottom yada yada yada
2008-10-23 19:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we broke below wave {b}
2008-10-23 19:32:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: then go up to e, and tank
2008-10-23 19:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we broke below wave {b} - that's the key
2008-10-23 19:33:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i thought on a descending triangle, d, can go below b marginally, in a descending
2008-10-23 19:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of this, it destroyed the symmetry of the pattern
2008-10-23 19:33:26 [Message] apconcen -> Main Room: wave c target would be 1050 spx ?
2008-10-23 19:33:31 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: looks like a descending triangle to me.....before you came into the chat
2008-10-23 19:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's assume for a moment it is a descending triangle or wedge
2008-10-23 19:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what happened with wave [e}?
2008-10-23 19:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why so shallow?
2008-10-23 19:34:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: its on its way to it now
2008-10-23 19:34:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: d was today
2008-10-23 19:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: why did we impulse lower yesterday and today?
2008-10-23 19:34:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: end of day bounce was the start of the move to e
2008-10-23 19:34:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: This is why {e}is such a confusion.....we'll know next month
2008-10-23 19:34:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the original b is still b
2008-10-23 19:35:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: a same
2008-10-23 19:35:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: b same
2008-10-23 19:35:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: c same
2008-10-23 19:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: was it? - http://tinyurl.com/6dt43m
2008-10-23 19:35:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and d today
2008-10-23 19:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well wave {e} should have began this morning
2008-10-23 19:35:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you have to move your d
2008-10-23 19:35:48 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: fib, can u see this? http://tinyurl.com/58u5n6
2008-10-23 19:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it looked like we were on target until the afternoon
2008-10-23 19:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can't click links...that's my problem...I'm really sorry
2008-10-23 19:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do this - can you send me the link to my e-mail? fib_1618@technicalwatch.com
2008-10-23 19:36:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, i think where you have {d} it's w and todays low is y
2008-10-23 19:36:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: with the bounce being x
2008-10-23 19:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: dave...the count has problems now
2008-10-23 19:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not within the guidelines of Elliott...something else is going on
2008-10-23 19:37:35 [Message] dave -> Main Room: wxy ? i don't see whats outside the guidelines, i believe you, i just don't see it yet
2008-10-23 19:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe it was a case of a couple of hedge funds liquidating yesterday that was the cause of an aberration
2008-10-23 19:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I have to go with what I see - in a symmetrical triangle, you can not take out the "B" wave lows
2008-10-23 19:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we did both on all time frames
2008-10-23 19:38:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: from your (b) to (c), you have a w that did a 1-5, same with the move from (c) to (d) of a descending triangle
2008-10-23 19:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: zig zags have 5 waves
2008-10-23 19:39:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: pull up your chart
2008-10-23 19:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my hourly?
2008-10-23 19:39:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: change (d) to w
2008-10-23 19:39:40 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-23 19:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-10-23 19:39:47 [Message] dave -> Main Room: then that bounce to x
2008-10-23 19:39:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and the bottom today
2008-10-23 19:39:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: y of (d) of a descending
2008-10-23 19:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do you see that we broke below the wave {b} time stamp late afternoon today?
2008-10-23 19:40:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes, didn't know that a marginal break was against Elliott rules on a "descending triangle"
2008-10-23 19:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I understand what you're referring to, but we broke below the time stamp
2008-10-23 19:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm sorry, but what do you want me to do? change the guidelines?
2008-10-23 19:41:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: on an intraday basis, we took it out by 5 pts, but rules are rules
2008-10-23 19:41:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rules ARE rules
2008-10-23 19:41:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: it would play the same, except instead of an (e) up , its just going to go a little higher to C
2008-10-23 19:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember...Elliott is just a way to label basic bar charting methods
2008-10-23 19:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry...can't buy it
2008-10-23 19:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's what makes the markets
2008-10-23 19:42:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, im with you
2008-10-23 19:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me check my mail - one moment
2008-10-23 19:42:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so we bounce to c
2008-10-23 19:42:48 [Message] dave -> Main Room: does it have to be a flat, or can we get a {c} that goes higher than {a}
2008-10-23 19:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the internals should hopefully help us in this area
2008-10-23 19:43:10 [Message] dave -> Main Room: or a flat, b/c this was a running correction
2008-10-23 19:43:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I like the look for help elsewhere idea.....that may shed light
2008-10-23 19:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't believe in running corrections
2008-10-23 19:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like I don't believe in truncated 5ths or 99% wave 2 retracements
2008-10-23 19:45:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok
2008-10-23 19:45:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's just my experience - they're nice excuses for counts gone bad
2008-10-23 19:46:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Far be it from us to have a count gone bad
2008-10-23 19:46:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, so just to recap, you think (c) is going to (a) at about 1000, as a guideline, but could meet intraday high in the 1040's?
2008-10-23 19:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at tahiti's counts - one moment
2008-10-23 19:47:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I see what you're all saying
2008-10-23 19:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I guess if we allow for the excess in volatility...maybe
2008-10-23 19:48:33 [Message] dave -> Main Room: your way or triangle way, we still go up from here to make an (e) or a (c) right?
2008-10-23 19:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I guess if we allow for unprecedented credit problems on a global basis..maybe
2008-10-23 19:48:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be the best plan, yes...but on the surface - we need internal confirmation
2008-10-23 19:49:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so c would be higher than e
2008-10-23 19:49:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: if it were a flat
2008-10-23 19:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's go to DP...and see how this might all work out...
2008-10-23 19:49:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: so if we break the downtrend line then it is not a descending triangle and its a flat abc
2008-10-23 19:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that is one idea...yes
2008-10-23 19:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll see if we can pull this altogether with the breadth data for the "best plan"
2008-10-23 19:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...not expected, but we had a small point change on the CO NYSE breadth MCO today where I would had expected a snapback to or towards the zero line
2008-10-23 19:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (which would had fit well with wave {e}
2008-10-23 19:54:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: breadth was disgusting today
2008-10-23 19:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was also bad
2008-10-23 19:54:39 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well dave, we gap up tomorrow and sell off, we finished that (e) and we close down
2008-10-23 19:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all in a perfect Elliott world, eh?
2008-10-23 19:55:07 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and on our way for minute 5 - all in your time frame mentioned on Tuesday
2008-10-23 19:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: listening to what's happening the world though, I still like a finishing bottom next week
2008-10-23 19:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM continues to dig itself into a large hole
2008-10-23 19:56:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well the difference between (c) and an (e) is 50 spx pts, that point difference in this market can be an hour
2008-10-23 19:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: near term...here's what we should be watching for
2008-10-23 19:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the next expectation of any break above or below the zero line would be an attempt to snapback to or towards this same line, but if we aren't able to do this, that little blip lower we saw last week (in which I referred to as something that would become important later on), is our key support level for any bull divergence that may be generated near term
2008-10-23 19:58:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave is there anything that allows for a symmetrical not completing 5 waves, where we broke down and back tested it on the close today?
2008-10-23 19:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each segment in an Elliott triangle are made up of zig zags - 5-3-5 affairs
2008-10-23 19:58:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: like no triangle at all, where we are in a (2) up of 3 down of minute 5?
2008-10-23 19:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to not complete those final 5 waves would tell a different story
2008-10-23 19:59:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and 3 of 3 of 5 starts tomorrow
2008-10-23 19:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unlikely because of the bounce we had last week
2008-10-23 19:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would had been 2...unless...wave 5 is extending
2008-10-23 20:00:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right it was a 2
2008-10-23 20:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: shrug
2008-10-23 20:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-10-23 20:00:13 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and in the 3 there are 5 waves
2008-10-23 20:00:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we did 1 and 2 today
2008-10-23 20:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would like that pattern better than the descending wedge and it would fit with yesterdays negative breadth plurality
2008-10-23 20:00:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: which means, we go straight down in a finishing move from here
2008-10-23 20:00:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: iii or v, yes
2008-10-23 20:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with wave iii (we're talking very small degree here folks) would be the extension
2008-10-23 20:01:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would that change the target ? or still 726?
2008-10-23 20:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...we would meet 726 with room to spare
2008-10-23 20:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: possible...not probable
2008-10-23 20:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this were to happen
2008-10-23 20:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that blip we just talked about in the CO MCO would be violated
2008-10-23 20:02:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: scaling in shorts seems like the best idea above 940spx, unless the rest of internals class changes mind
2008-10-23 20:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: right now...I would be very careful in scaling - better to wait for the turn
2008-10-23 20:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is just to volatile
2008-10-23 20:03:24 [Message] dave -> Main Room: in a finishing move, can't the turn be overnight with a gap down of 500 pts?
2008-10-23 20:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure..
2008-10-23 20:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what are the odds?
2008-10-23 20:03:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: In this market you have about 3 minutes to scale into or out of anything
2008-10-23 20:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no kidding - anything else would be cutting yourself too fine
2008-10-23 20:04:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i mean scale in terms of add some shorts at 940, 955, 970, 990, 1005, etc,,,
2008-10-23 20:04:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't believe in scaling against the trend
2008-10-23 20:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would rather see the market move with me than against me
2008-10-23 20:04:51 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well, trend is down, this just a correction up, right?
2008-10-23 20:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it?
2008-10-23 20:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: are you 100% sure?
2008-10-23 20:05:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: pretty sure, too many people would be right calling the bottom on Friday morning
2008-10-23 20:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see what I'm driving at?
2008-10-23 20:05:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and that was poopoo, with the bottom being at 9:35 am
2008-10-23 20:05:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i dont buy it for a second
2008-10-23 20:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you know...there are times in which these things turn out right
2008-10-23 20:06:20 [Message] dave -> Main Room: that was a wave 3, and you don't believe in truncated 5ths
2008-10-23 20:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, record shorts have been right for the last 2 months, right?
2008-10-23 20:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: perspective - we are still in the midst of a crash scenario
2008-10-23 20:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are bouncing wildly as a super ball would after being dropped from 5 stories up
2008-10-23 20:07:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: How would the market take the most money from the most people?
2008-10-23 20:07:31 [Message] dave -> Main Room: except the floor goes lower after each bounce
2008-10-23 20:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until there is less in the way of bounce here...I would be very careful in adding to what may be a losing position
2008-10-23 20:07:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: trademark, most likely with a flat
2008-10-23 20:07:54 [Message] dave -> Main Room: nobody is expecting that type of bounce
2008-10-23 20:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's why the flat idea makes a whole lot of sense
2008-10-23 20:08:21 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the {e} of a descending makes sense too
2008-10-23 20:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...in the fullness of time
2008-10-23 20:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we have to remember, Elliott is not gospel, it's just a method
2008-10-23 20:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to remain cognizant of what money is actually doing, and not what we guess it might do
2008-10-23 20:09:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the finishing move here doesn't make too much sense either, b/c that bounce at the end of day was not big enough to make anyone a bull
2008-10-23 20:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I've seen too many traders dry up and blow away because they were "so sure" of the eventual outcome
2008-10-23 20:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one step at a time
2008-10-23 20:09:53 [Message] dave -> Main Room: you're looking for a flat, my portfolio is flat, zero positions
2008-10-23 20:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "count" proposed was only one map
2008-10-23 20:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-23 20:10:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That's a good point fib, what does the MCO say the money is actually doing today.....leaving I think
2008-10-23 20:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good.
2008-10-23 20:10:14 [Message] dave -> Main Room: map was great for a few days
2008-10-23 20:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's move on before others lose interest
2008-10-23 20:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we have a small point change on the composite NYSE breadth MCO tonight
2008-10-23 20:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2008-10-23 20:11:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: how about that....who would have thought that?
2008-10-23 20:11:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: last time, it was a 7% move where usually we should only expect a 1-2% move
2008-10-23 20:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM, and we have yet to take out the recent lows of last week
2008-10-23 20:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, between the CO and the composite, the interest rate sensitive issues continue to find good support here
2008-10-23 20:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have the possibility of bull divergence in place now
2008-10-23 20:13:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though one would expect a deeper retracement of the lows of two weeks ago to suggest an important bottom might be behind us
2008-10-23 20:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after finding resistance at the zero line, the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved lower today
2008-10-23 20:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and here too, we have the possibility of bull divergence in place
2008-10-23 20:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM, the little ledge formation we spoke about on Tuesday, fell to lower lows
2008-10-23 20:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as long as the MCSUM shows lower lows, we remain heavy...under pressure
2008-10-23 20:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sort of like the basketball in the pool analogy
2008-10-23 20:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can keep the ball below the surface if you apply direct pressure to it, but when you release the ball, whoosh
2008-10-23 20:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we saw this happen today - the ball slipped...and up we went into the close
2008-10-23 20:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...on a merchandising level
2008-10-23 20:17:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping prices lower during the day, and then rallying the market into the close, keeps Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie from getting too excited about "selling at any cost"
2008-10-23 20:18:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Bad news is that with market as oversold as it is.....a violent rally not at all impossible. Good for merchandising too.......
2008-10-23 20:18:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although...I wonder if these relatives heard that the market closed at lower lows than that of the 10/10 bottom yesterday on the nightly news?
2008-10-23 20:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...a relief rally is certainly plausible
2008-10-23 20:18:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have seen this happen several times over the last two weeks
2008-10-23 20:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but being as "oversold" as we are, doesn't provide the market the follow through needed for a more "determined" low
2008-10-23 20:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: your guess is as good as mine right now...I'm not set on a count here - too many "alternatives"
2008-10-23 20:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not enough clarity
2008-10-23 20:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when this happens...it's better to go back to the basics and let the market tell us in hindsight
2008-10-23 20:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll pick it up again...but for now, there's too many questions
2008-10-23 20:20:55 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Never easy.....well... almost never
2008-10-23 20:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: plus...there's too many news items out there right now that can really shake things up
2008-10-23 20:21:16 [Message] dave -> Main Room: for 3 days, i have heard more about this triangle then i have heard about any pattern on the stock market in my entire career, it was obvious in last 2 days it wasn't going to work out that way
2008-10-23 20:22:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, it was obvious from the bottom...but when you have everyone looking at the same thing, well, it's unlikely the market will accommodate these same analysts, and it will morph into "something different" because of these same traders all trading off the same pattern
2008-10-23 20:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: happens all the time
2008-10-23 20:22:38 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i mean, i love Art Cashin, he's my hero, but when he starts talking Elliott, i know the plan's got problems
2008-10-23 20:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and probably why we made lower lows yesterday
2008-10-23 20:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that was very surprising, wasn't it?
2008-10-23 20:23:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: my jaw dropped
2008-10-23 20:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's the first time I have EVER heard him refer to Elliott
2008-10-23 20:23:43 [Message] dave -> Main Room: me too..EVER
2008-10-23 20:23:45 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: didn't hear it, but it was mentioned in Trade station futures chat this morning
2008-10-23 20:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was a side comment
2008-10-23 20:25:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: he said, "I'm looking for 300 pts or so of upside today and that would give a clear Elliott signal so we get our last finishing move next week"
2008-10-23 20:25:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was like a direct reference to Elliott - he threw triangle in there somewhere
2008-10-23 20:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...it was out of the blue
2008-10-23 20:27:02 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I was late, did you already mention y's AAII 's? 38% bulls...
2008-10-23 20:27:51 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: "typically" <30 at bottoms, sentiment was more bearish in July...
2008-10-23 20:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the NDX breadth MCO
2008-10-23 20:27:55 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=901203452&play=1
2008-10-23 20:28:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks Geo...
2008-10-23 20:28:09 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: bloggers are 62.5% bullish http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/blogger_sentiment_poll/index.html
2008-10-23 20:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and how many bloggers are in the poll?
2008-10-23 20:28:58 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: those AAII numbers have a longer history, fwiw...
2008-10-23 20:29:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: funny...back about 8 years ago "bloggers" were just annoyances...now they rule our lives!
2008-10-23 20:29:27 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: 25 bloggers
2008-10-23 20:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so 15 bloggers
2008-10-23 20:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and did you notice...62.50%.....close to 61.80%
2008-10-23 20:30:39 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: plenty to read about re: VIX manipulation during VIX options/futures expiry yest too...direct from cboe fib, fwiw
2008-10-23 20:31:28 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: they're "dealing w/ it"
2008-10-23 20:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hehe - aren't we all?
2008-10-23 20:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO moved slightly higher today in an attempt to snapback towards its zero line
2008-10-23 20:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same situation with the OEX...and look at the way the MCSUM's are digging lower here - wow
2008-10-23 20:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: getting a bit concerning now
2008-10-23 20:34:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on one hand, moving to deeply "oversold" levels like this do provide excellent platforms for future uptrends
2008-10-23 20:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other, moving to, what could be, all time lows, and given that we are testing the bear market price lows of 2002, if the price patterns break below these price lows, and the MCSUM's continue to rack up lower and lower readings, this could give us many years of bear market activity
2008-10-23 20:36:29 [Message] dave -> Main Room: "super cycle"
2008-10-23 20:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could very well be
2008-10-23 20:36:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: we've talked about the possibility
2008-10-23 20:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and when you consider that the government continues to do the very same thing that got the private sector into this mess....boy
2008-10-23 20:37:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i mean, countries are going bankrupt, only a few months ago we were worried about some municipalities
2008-10-23 20:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but...they can "leverage" better than wall street, right?
2008-10-23 20:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: since every country "needs us", bankruptcies are not that surprising - look at Iceland, they just "followed the leaders"
2008-10-23 20:40:18 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Nikkei down 3.5%
2008-10-23 20:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the MID, SML, and TM breadth MCO's all moved lower today
2008-10-23 20:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the TM breadth MCSUM moving to just slightly to lower lows
2008-10-23 20:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...breadth wise...no sign of a bottom as yet
2008-10-23 20:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market remains very heavy, but this doesn't mean that we won't have a relief rally here and there
2008-10-23 20:44:46 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, any readings like you have given before that a counter trend, meaning a rally would be an intraday event? or 2 day event, ? what do you look at to tell
2008-10-23 20:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at this point..one day at most
2008-10-23 20:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of the 10/10 rally
2008-10-23 20:45:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was that the 926 pts?
2008-10-23 20:45:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe some follow through in the morning....and that's it
2008-10-23 20:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that one was, yes
2008-10-23 20:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm referring to direction...structure...not points
2008-10-23 20:45:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah, the next day we gapped up 400 and closed red
2008-10-23 20:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct
2008-10-23 20:46:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and two days later we were down 700
2008-10-23 20:46:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that we are so deeply "oversold", all the market has to work with are shorts in the system
2008-10-23 20:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is heavy - the path of least resistance remains lower
2008-10-23 20:46:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: are the oversold readings similar to 10/10?
2008-10-23 20:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now?...short term?....no
2008-10-23 20:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in that area, one would use the MCO for guidance - not even close
2008-10-23 20:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we could be building divergence though
2008-10-23 20:47:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: with the mcsums this low, we should expect that minute 5 would be a multiday event? instead of a 1 day crash?
2008-10-23 20:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so one has to take care as the odds become lower in looking for any continued price tests compared with last week
2008-10-23 20:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: either or
2008-10-23 20:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could be like the 10/10 bottom or it can just dig lower...drip by drip
2008-10-23 20:48:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all depends on the unwilling sellers
2008-10-23 20:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tell you one thing though, if the news gets out that we close below the 2002 lows
2008-10-23 20:49:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i thought you mentioned that when mcsums are this far away from zero, that a crash like event odds, diminish?
2008-10-23 20:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can bet the bell of that announcement will ring loud and clear
2008-10-23 20:49:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they do
2008-10-23 20:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they're not as easy to do, but they could be multi day events
2008-10-23 20:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but given the Elliott consideration here, and looking at past crashes, all we really need is a nice "all points bulletin" wash out
2008-10-23 20:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how about 1100 points? trigger a circuit?
2008-10-23 20:50:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: does that get us to 726?
2008-10-23 20:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: build the pressure...and then we're done?
2008-10-23 20:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-10-23 20:51:08 [Message] dave -> Main Room: Tuesday?
2008-10-23 20:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know - timing is always a problem
2008-10-23 20:53:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...let's not get too excited about a bottom here as we still have some work to do before we can say the market is standing...no less walking
2008-10-23 20:54:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's still on the bullish side of neutral
2008-10-23 20:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the NDX CVI giving a 2 day turn around signal yesterday
2008-10-23 20:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which reminds me - remember the measuring objectives for the NASDAQ and NDX?
2008-10-23 20:56:00 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-23 20:56:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first objective for the NASDAQ was 1532...intraday low today was 1533
2008-10-23 20:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX has yet to met the minimal objective at 1126
2008-10-23 20:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's be careful here
2008-10-23 20:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let the market prove itself
2008-10-23 20:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as we could be in for another week of rough and tumble
2008-10-23 20:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are still neutral
2008-10-23 20:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we bounce, and it's a flat...
2008-10-23 20:57:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...I wouldn't scale against this "reaction" - better to go long, if anything
2008-10-23 20:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: catch it both ways
2008-10-23 20:58:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then you can scale out of the longs and switch
2008-10-23 20:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go with the trend
2008-10-23 20:58:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that can be different based on the time frame
2008-10-23 20:59:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's really OK to make money on the upside too!
2008-10-23 20:59:05 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ok, so excitement on descending triangle, 92 spx pts to a flat - that is enormous
2008-10-23 20:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you just want your money working for you
2008-10-23 20:59:57 [Message] dave -> Main Room: only thought about scaling b/c of the pt movement to the bottom is enormous
2008-10-23 21:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I recommend waiting for your set up and then executing
2008-10-23 21:00:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i played all letters of what we thought was symmetrical triangle and many of the wxy's as well
2008-10-23 21:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: scaling tends to turn into more of an emotional trade
2008-10-23 21:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then play any rally we have here or play the decline
2008-10-23 21:01:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I mean...the ranges are enormous
2008-10-23 21:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: accumulate and preserve
2008-10-23 21:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's are now, finally, showing some life, but remain deeply "oversold"
2008-10-23 21:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at .74
2008-10-23 21:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.09
2008-10-23 21:02:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what odds do you put to a bounce or flat coming before we move lower?
2008-10-23 21:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and keeping things from breaking down near term
2008-10-23 21:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...I'm not at all sure of where we are right now
2008-10-23 21:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have no real opinion
2008-10-23 21:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have ideas...but that's all
2008-10-23 21:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm back to trading the market
2008-10-23 21:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just keep it simple
2008-10-23 21:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't micro manage it
2008-10-23 21:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would put Elliott in your back pocket for now...it might do more harm than good
2008-10-23 21:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.14
2008-10-23 21:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.09 with potential divergence
2008-10-23 21:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check out the 21 and 55 day SMA's...wowser
2008-10-23 21:05:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I was looking 21 and 55.....really getting up there
2008-10-23 21:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even in 2002, I don't think we've ever seen these kind of lows
2008-10-23 21:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is more than "trashed" - it's like no one will ever want these stocks again
2008-10-23 21:07:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: maybe they don't
2008-10-23 21:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 1.04
2008-10-23 21:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.12
2008-10-23 21:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: makes you wonder if the NASDAQ could survive under such conditions?
2008-10-23 21:08:04 [Message] dave -> Main Room: well your nasdaq 4th target was sub 1000 which is a couple hundred lower than the tech bubble crash
2008-10-23 21:08:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that is...if the majority finally realize that this is a group of "do nothing" issues
2008-10-23 21:08:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the selling is really unbelievable - we just don't really know where its coming from
2008-10-23 21:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is it from investors, or hedge funds?? both?
2008-10-23 21:09:02 [Message] tahiti -> Main Room: LVLT & SIRI are trading under $1
2008-10-23 21:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: amazing
2008-10-23 21:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...
2008-10-23 21:09:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Haven't all the unwilling sellers sold???
2008-10-23 21:09:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: would you put into question your count on the minute 5 and the other 4's and 5's.......or is it just the near term that has you scratching your head?
2008-10-23 21:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the trend remains lows for now
2008-10-23 21:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: my gut suggests that until we see the 2002 lows, not everyone has sold out
2008-10-23 21:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many have been told over the last week to hold
2008-10-23 21:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's too late to sell
2008-10-23 21:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that the market has in the past given us these great wholesale point to buy
2008-10-23 21:10:37 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep, they all refer to 87
2008-10-23 21:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that if you're not on board, you will miss the move higher after the bottom
2008-10-23 21:10:52 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and that was not long ago, many investors were there for that
2008-10-23 21:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not that many
2008-10-23 21:11:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: "and wont make the same mistake" 2x
2008-10-23 21:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not the boys and girls who got us into this mess - the 20 and 30 somethings
2008-10-23 21:11:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, all baby boomers that have there 401k's
2008-10-23 21:11:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah the hot shot hedge fund guys
2008-10-23 21:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that retired at 35 with 100 mil...yea...those good folks
2008-10-23 21:11:50 [Message] dave -> Main Room: they're awful anyways, they have MIT minds and emotions of a 5 year old
2008-10-23 21:12:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...they're "entitled"
2008-10-23 21:12:11 [Message] dave -> Main Room: short, wait, long, wait short
2008-10-23 21:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-10-23 21:12:18 [Message] dave -> Main Room: and the new rules play to them
2008-10-23 21:12:30 [Message] dave -> Main Room: play to their emotions, play against them
2008-10-23 21:12:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Nikkei down 4%
2008-10-23 21:12:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm worried about Asia
2008-10-23 21:13:09 [Message] dave -> Main Room: dave, what would you look for for a confirmation of a bounce or no bounce
2008-10-23 21:13:40 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: If you look charts outside the US....they have a long way to fall.....generally speaking
2008-10-23 21:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like any time else...price and volume moves above previous resistance areas
2008-10-23 21:14:03 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what price on spx, would tell you that we going to next price objective? a take out of the intraday lows?
2008-10-23 21:14:07 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Any comment on the dollar going forward?
2008-10-23 21:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the next two weeks are going to be historic in many ways
2008-10-23 21:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as long as there's a need for cash, the dollar should continue higher
2008-10-23 21:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's still the parent
2008-10-23 21:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the gold count is going to change as well - everything is deflating now
2008-10-23 21:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well..it has been...even more so now
2008-10-23 21:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry I couldn't share anything more insightful today
2008-10-23 21:27:47 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: http://bailoutsleuth.com/2008/10/the-end-of-bailout-transparency-already/
2008-10-23 21:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK....everyone have a great weekend
2008-10-23 21:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll talk again on Tuesday
2008-10-23 21:28:37 [Message] apconcen -> Main Room: u too fib
2008-10-23 21:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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